北京时间11月7日晚，美股三大指数集体低开，截至发稿前，道指下跌0.40%，纳指下跌1.55%，标普500指数下跌0.93%。 | 唯品会 | -0.27% | -0.050 | 0.029 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | us VIPS | -1.31% | -0.240 | | | 微博 | -2.11% | -0.223 | 0.079 | | us WB | -0.76% | -0.080 | | | 阿里巴巴 | -3.48% | -5.839 | 0.149 | | US BABA | -2.92% | -4.900 | | | 京东 | -1.99% | -0.635 | 0.039 | | us JD | -1.81% | -0.580 | | | 腾讯音乐 | -4.82% | -1.075 | -0.199 | | US TME | -2.38% | -0.530 | | | 小鹏汽车 | -7.16% | -1.710 | 0.059 | | US XPEV | -3.18% | -0.760 | | | 理想汽车 | | -1.91% -0.385 | 0. ...

每经编辑｜段炼 北京时间11月7日晚，美股三大指数集体低开，随后跳水。截至发稿，道指下跌0.62%，纳指下跌1.71%，标普500指数下跌1%。 英伟达、特斯拉等暴跌 比特币跳水，24万人爆仓 大型科技股多数下跌，英伟达、特斯拉一度跌超4%，谷歌、Meta跌超2%，亚马逊跌超1%，苹果上涨。 热门中概股多数下跌，小鹏汽车跌超7%，阿里巴巴、蔚来、哔哩哔哩跌超3%，微博、爱奇艺跌超2%，京东、理想汽车跌超1%。 | 唯品会 | -0.27% | -0.050 | 0.02% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | us VIPS | -1.31% | -0.240 | | | 微博 | | -2.11% -0.223 | 0.07% | | us WB | -0.76% | -0.080 | | | 阿里巴巴 | -3.48% | -5.839 | 0.14% | | US BABA | -2.92% | -4.900 | | | 京东 | | -1.99% -0.635 | 0.03% | | us JD | -1.81% | -0.580 | | | 腾讯音乐 | -4.82% | -1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant decline in U.S. consumer confidence, reaching its lowest level in over three years due to economic uncertainties stemming from government shutdowns and persistent high prices affecting household finances [1][2] - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index dropped from 53.6 in October to 50.3 in November, marking a new low since June 2022 and falling short of most economists' expectations [1] - The index measuring current economic conditions fell by 6.3 points to 52.3, the lowest recorded level, indicating rising public concern over the potential impact of government shutdowns on economic activity [1] Group 2 - A continuous increase in the number of consumers reporting rising living costs and high prices has been observed for five consecutive months, underscoring the ongoing inflationary pressures on household spending [1] - Long-term inflation expectations have eased slightly, with consumers anticipating an average inflation rate of 3.6% over the next 5 to 10 years, which is the lowest in three months; however, short-term inflation expectations have risen slightly [1] - In November, 71% of consumers expect the unemployment rate to rise in the next year, double the proportion from a year ago, reflecting heightened concerns about job security [2] Group 3 - The index reflecting personal financial conditions has dropped to its lowest level in six years, while the purchasing conditions for commodities have worsened to the worst level since mid-2022 [1] - The index measuring future expectations has fallen to 49, a six-month low, indicating a pessimistic outlook among consumers regarding the economy [2] - The ongoing government shutdown is causing delays in the release of key economic data, leading to a lack of clarity about the true state of the economy, making consumer confidence surveys a limited reference point [2]

Core Insights - US consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in over three years in early November, primarily due to concerns over the economic outlook exacerbated by government shutdowns and high prices [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The preliminary consumer confidence index for November fell from 53.6 in October to 50.3, marking the lowest level since June 2022 [1] - The current economic conditions index decreased by 6.3 points to a record low of 52.3, reflecting growing concerns about the impact of government shutdowns [1] Group 2: Demographic Trends - Confidence declined across various age, income, and political groups, indicating a widespread sentiment of pessimism among consumers [1] Group 3: Inflation Expectations - Consumers have mentioned rising prices for the fifth consecutive month, although long-term inflation expectations have decreased, with a projected average inflation rate of 3.6% over the next five to ten years, the lowest in three months [1] - There was a slight increase in expectations for inflation over the next year [1] Group 4: Financial Pressures - Consumers are feeling financial pressure from multiple sources and anticipate a continued weakening of the labor market, which they believe will affect their personal financial situations [1]

每经AI快讯，11月7日消息，美国11月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值为4.7，预期为4.6，前值为4.6。 ...

Group 1 - The preliminary consumer confidence index for November from the University of Michigan is 50.3, which is below the expected 53 and the previous value of 53.6 [1] - The one-year inflation expectation for November is reported at 4.7%, slightly above the expected 4.6% and the previous value of 4.6% [1] - The five-year inflation expectation for November is at 3.6%, which is lower than the expected 3.8% and the previous value of 3.9% [1]

纳斯达克中国金龙指数小幅上涨，个股像阿特斯、亚朵、腾讯音乐在不同板块里各自完成情绪反弹，市场以碎片化回应宏观不确定。 消息来源不是传闻而是公开释放——美联储多位理事接连表态，关于12月是否降息的答案开始变得模糊（来源：证券时报），言辞在政策与市场之间拉扯出 新裂缝。 | < W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | | 3993.600 " | 4000.950 | | | | 总量 | | 0 | | -7.350 | -0.18% 升益 | | 4001.150 | | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4005.940 持 | 色 | | 0 | 外 智 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 3981.360 智 | 色 | | 0 | 内 클 | | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 EK 围K | | | | 月K | 中文 | (0) | | 叠加 | | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 4020.540 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to better - than - expected US ADP and PMI services data, risk appetite improved, leading to a rebound in gold prices. The medium - to - long - term trend is slightly bearish, and the price will fluctuate. The premium of Shanghai gold remains at 0 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, also driven by better - than - expected US ADP and PMI services data, risk appetite improved, resulting in a significant rebound in silver prices. The long - term trend is slightly bearish, and the price will oscillate. The silver premium has expanded to 310 yuan/gram [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US ADP and PMI services data were better than expected, risk appetite improved, and the price of COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% to $3990.40 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 7.78 basis points to 4.159%, and the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 100.16. The offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1312 [4]. - **Silver**: The US ADP and PMI services data were better than expected, risk appetite improved, and the price of COMEX silver futures rose 1.20% to $47.86 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 2.72 basis points to 4.083%, and the US dollar index rose 0.34% to 100.21. The offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 7.1352 [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 2.66, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants is 87,816 kg, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 19, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 665,610 kg, an increase of 6,759 kg from the previous day; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [6]. 3. Today's Focus - At 08:30, pay attention to Australia's September goods and services trade balance, and Japan's October final services and composite PMI values. - It is time - undetermined that the 2025 World Internet Conference Wuzhen Summit will open (lasting until November 9), Xiaoma Zhixing and Wenyuan Zhixing plan to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange simultaneously, and iFlytek will hold an offline main forum in Hefei (releasing the latest progress of the Spark large - model). - At 10:05, focus on Vietnam's October import - export and trade balance. - At 13:00, pay attention to India's October final services and composite PMI values. - At 15:00, focus on Germany's September industrial output. - At 16:00, the European Central Bank will hold the "Money Market 2025" conference, with Executive Board member Schnabel delivering a keynote speech and ECB Governing Council member Kocher speaking. - At 16:30, ECB Vice - President Guindos will attend a seminar on "Current Policy Challenges in the Eurozone". - At 17:00, the Norwegian Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. - At 19:45, ECB Governing Council member and Bank of France Governor Villeroy will speak. - At 20:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report. - At 20:30, ECB Governing Council member and German Central Bank President Nagel will discuss the global economy at a conference in Frankfurt. - At 22:00, ECB Governing Council member and German Central Bank President Nagel will discuss financial stability in Frankfurt. - At 23:30, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will attend a Senate committee hearing. - At 00:00 the next day, New York Fed President Williams will speak, and Fed Governor Barr will participate in a discussion. - At 01:00 the next day, Cleveland Fed President Hammack will speak at the New York Economic Club. - At 02:30 the next day, ECB Chief Economist Lane will speak. - At 04:30 the next day, Fed Governor Waller will participate in a conference on central banks and payments. - At 05:30 the next day, Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will speak. - At 06:30 the next day, St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 2.66, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants is 87,816 kg, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 19, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 665,610 kg, an increase of 6,759 kg from the previous day; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold decreased by 0.95% to 160,330, the short position decreased by 1.30% to 65,685, and the net position decreased by 0.71% to 94,645 [31]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver decreased by 1.77% to 330,613, the short position decreased by 3.62% to 246,681, and the net position increased by 4.12% to 83,932 [33].

Core Points - The Bank of Japan's September meeting minutes reveal a cautious stance among some board members regarding the timing of interest rate hikes, emphasizing the need to consider Japan's prolonged experience with deflation [1][3] - The minutes indicate a heated discussion during the September policy meeting, with the governor facing opposition for the first time during his tenure, suggesting a potential interest rate increase in the near future [3][4] - The upcoming labor negotiations are expected to push for wage increases exceeding 5%, which may influence the Bank of Japan's decision on interest rates [4] Summary by Sections Interest Rate Policy - Some board members advocate for a careful approach to interest rate hikes due to Japan's long-standing deflationary context, contrasting with two members who support an increase [1] - The minutes highlight that while conditions for a rate hike are gradually being met, immediate action is deemed risky as it could disrupt financial markets [3] Economic Indicators - The next policy decision is scheduled for December 19, with observers closely monitoring the Bank's communication regarding the possibility of rate hikes [3] - A recent survey indicates that nearly all economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise the benchmark interest rate before January, with half predicting this could happen in December [4] Labor Market Dynamics - The largest labor union in Japan is set to negotiate for over 5% wage increases for the third consecutive year, which may provide initial signals for the Bank of Japan regarding wage adjustments [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views - Due to heightened concerns about high valuations, the US stock market experienced a "Black Tuesday," leading to a decline in gold and silver prices. The risk appetite decreased, and the rebound strength of both gold and silver prices was weak. In the medium to long term, there was a slight shift to a bearish trend, with limited upside potential. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate, and the silver premium has expanded to 300 yuan/gram [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. However, the support for gold prices has significantly weakened recently [9]. - Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes closed down across the board, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, US bond yields fell collectively, the 10 - year US bond yield dropped 2.72 basis points to 4.083%, the US dollar index rose 0.34% to 100.21, the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 7.1352, and COMEX gold futures fell 1.81% to $3941.30 per ounce. The gold futures price was 915.58, the spot price was 912.55, with a basis of - 3.03, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts were 87,816 kilograms, unchanged. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the US stock market's "Black Tuesday" led to a decline in silver prices. COMEX silver futures fell 2.40% to $46.90 per ounce. The silver futures price was 11,238, the spot price was 11,219, with a basis of - 19, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts were 665,610 kilograms, with a daily increase of 6,759 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Today's Focus**: A series of events and data releases are scheduled, including the release of the Bank of Japan's September monetary policy meeting minutes, the New Zealand Reserve Bank's press conference on the semi - annual financial stability report, the potential attendance of US President Trump at a hearing for the US Supreme Court's key "tariff ruling," and various PMI data from China, the US, and Europe, as well as the US October ADP employment data [15]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The support for gold prices has weakened due to the improvement of factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and Sino - US tariff concerns. The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of turmoil, and the inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation. But currently, the support factors have changed [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there are both positive and negative factors affecting it. Positive factors include global turmoil, the existence of shadow Fed's significant interest rate cut expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to a resurgence of inflation, and the support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors. Negative factors include the increasing expectation of a halt to interest rate cuts, the Fed's internal divergence, the under - expected European fiscal expansion, and the expectation of Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations [13][14]. 4. Position Data - **Gold**: The net long position of the main gold holders decreased. For example, on November 4, 2025, the long position was 171,616, the short position was 69,501, and the net position was 102,115, showing a decrease compared to November 3, 2025 [31]. - **Silver**: The net long position of the main silver holders decreased. On November 4, 2025, the long position was 319,340, the short position was 252,370, and the net position was 66,970, also showing a decrease compared to November 3, 2025 [33]. - **ETF Positions**: The SPDR gold ETF position fluctuated and decreased, while the silver ETF position fluctuated and increased and remained higher than the same period in the past two years [36][39]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, the Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts stopped falling with silver being transferred from New York to London [40][41][43].