美联储：美国1月一年期通胀那个预期降至3.09%，前值3.42%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The capital market has been in a high - volatility state in the past week, shifting from divergence to a collective correction. Overseas, the divergence on AI has resurfaced, and the sharp correction of technology stocks, Bitcoin, and precious metals led by silver has impacted asset prices and raised investors' risk - aversion sentiment. In the domestic market, due to the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, futures exchanges have announced margin hikes, leading to a significant outflow of funds from the futures market [5][10]. - The Fed is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged in March, with a probability of 82.3%. The market expects about two interest rate cuts in 2026 [6][65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The capital market was highly volatile last week, with a collective correction. Overseas, the AI divergence affected asset prices. In the domestic market, the approaching Spring Festival led to margin hikes and a large - scale outflow of futures market funds. The BDI index dropped sharply, and most commodities corrected. The domestic bond market rebounded, while the stock index and most commodity categories declined. The Wind commodity index had a weekly change of - 21.16%, with 2 out of 10 commodity category indices rising and 8 falling. Precious metals led the decline, followed by non - ferrous metals with a - 5.07% drop. The energy - chemical sector was dragged down by the fall in crude oil prices, and coal - coking - steel and oilseeds also had notable declines. Agricultural products showed mixed performance [5][16]. - In terms of the futures market's capital flow, there was an overall significant outflow of funds from the commodity futures market. The coal - coking - steel and soft commodity sectors saw the most obvious capital inflows, while the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors had significant outflows. The volatility of the international CRB commodity index and domestic commodity indices increased. Most commodity futures categories saw higher volatility, except for the agricultural and grain sectors. The chemical and precious metals sectors had remarkable increases in volatility [6]. - The market's focus in the next week will be on the US non - farm payrolls report and CPI data. The non - farm payrolls report may adjust up to 1 million employment data. The market expects non - farm employment growth in January to be in the range of 60,000 - 80,000. China's January inflation and money supply data are also expected to be released next week. The Middle East situation seems to be stabilizing, with indirect talks between the US and Iran [7]. Large - scale Assets - The capital market was highly volatile last week, shifting from divergence to a collective correction. Overseas, the divergence on AI affected asset prices and raised risk - aversion sentiment. The VIX index rose slightly, the US dollar rebounded, and the RMB remained stable. Both the US and Chinese stock markets were under pressure. In the domestic market, due to the Spring Festival, futures exchanges raised margins, leading to a large - scale outflow of funds from the futures market. The BDI index dropped, and most commodities corrected [10]. Sector Express - The domestic bond market rebounded, the stock index declined, and most commodity categories were weak. The growth - style stocks performed significantly worse than the value - style stocks. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 both fell by more than - 2%, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 fell by about - 1%. The Wind commodity index had a weekly change of - 21.16%, with 2 out of 10 commodity category indices rising and 8 falling. Precious metals led the decline, followed by non - ferrous metals, and the energy - chemical sector was affected by the fall in crude oil prices [16]. Capital Flow - Last week, there was an overall significant outflow of funds from the commodity futures market. The coal - coking - steel and soft commodity sectors had the most obvious capital inflows, while the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors had significant outflows [18]. Variety Performance - Most domestic major commodity futures declined with large margins last week. The top - rising commodity futures were polysilicon, alumina, and glass, while the top - falling ones were Shanghai silver, platinum, and Shanghai tin [22]. Fluctuation Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB commodity index increased, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind commodity index and Nanhua commodity index both increased significantly. Most commodity futures categories saw higher volatility, except for the agricultural and grain sectors. The chemical and precious metals sectors had remarkable increases in volatility [25]. Macro Logic - The stock index was weak and declined across the board last week. Growth - style stocks had larger fluctuations and deeper declines. The valuation of the stock index was under pressure, and the equity risk premium (ERP) rebounded from a low level [32]. - The commodity price index fell from a high level, and the inflation expectation declined slightly under pressure [35]. - The US bond yield declined overall, the term structure was stable, the term spread fluctuated narrowly, the real interest rate was under pressure, and the gold price fluctuated sharply, first falling and then rising [52]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" fluctuated, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index rebounded, and the 10Y - 3M spread of US bonds widened significantly and then fluctuated narrowly [57]. Data Tracking - Most international major commodities declined, the BDI index dropped sharply, the CRB index fell, soybeans and corn rose slightly, and gold, silver, copper, and oil all declined. The silver price plunged, and the gold - silver ratio rebounded sharply from a low level [28]. - The asphalt开工率 declined seasonally, real - estate sales remained weak, freight rates decreased, and short - term capital interest rates fluctuated downward [44]. - The US bond interest rate decreased, the China - US interest rate spread rebounded, the inflation expectation rose and then fell, the financial conditions showed signs of bottoming out, the US dollar index declined, and the RMB was strong [55]. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectation - The Fed is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75% in March, with a probability of 82.3% (slightly lower than last week's 87.3%). The probability of a 25 - bp interest rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% increased slightly to 17.7%. The market expects about two interest rate cuts in 2026 [65]. This Week's Focus - Monday (February 9): Eurozone February Sentix Investor Confidence Index. - Tuesday (February 10): US December retail sales data, US December import price index. - Wednesday (February 11): China's January CPI, US January non - farm payrolls report. - Thursday (February 12): UK Q4 GDP preliminary value. - Friday (February 13): US January CPI. - Other: The People's Bank of China is expected to announce January money supply data during the week [70].

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations with low volatility, and the trading atmosphere is relatively quiet, particularly around the key level of the US dollar index at 97.496, indicating a lack of clear directional signals [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index is engaged in a range-bound trading pattern, with both bulls and bears contesting around the 97-98 range, showing signs of reduced momentum [1]. - Major non-USD currencies are performing steadily without clear direction, with the British pound closing at 1.3614 against the dollar and the dollar-yen pair trading around 156.5600 [1]. Group 2: Key Data and Events - Important upcoming data includes Japan's December trade balance, Switzerland's January consumer confidence index, and the Eurozone's February Sentix investor confidence index, which are expected to impact currency movements based on deviations from forecasts [1]. - The ASEAN finance ministers and central bank deputies' working group meeting is taking place, which may influence Southeast Asian currencies and global market sentiment through policy statements and cooperation developments [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The US dollar index is in a consolidation phase, with a downward channel formed since January 19, and currently holding above the 5-day moving average at 97.52 while facing resistance from the 10-day moving average at 97.89 [1]. - The euro against the dollar shows a bullish trend with key support levels at 1.1750-1.1765, and a potential upward movement towards 1.1900-1.1920 if it breaks above 1.1835 [2]. - The British pound against the dollar is in a state of indecision with increasing divergence between bulls and bears, and a need for clear signals to determine the next direction [3]. - The dollar-yen pair maintains a strong upward structure with key support levels at 156.30-156.50, and a potential breakout above 157.00 could open further upward movement [3]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The Middle East situation is tense with escalating US-Iran confrontations, which could lead to volatility in energy and safe-haven assets [4]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is prompting new sanctions from the EU and discussions for peace talks, impacting energy prices and currency valuations [4]. - Japan's recent election results may influence the yen's value and stock pricing, as the ruling party plans to lower consumption tax [4]. Group 5: Economic Indicators - The Michigan University consumer confidence index has shown improvement, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to a 13-month low, which may affect the Federal Reserve's policy direction [5]. - Upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials and key economic data releases are anticipated to influence market sentiment and asset pricing [6].

Group 1 - Silver futures closed at 20,873 yuan per kilogram on February 9, with a daily increase of 8.90% and a trading volume of 1,015,255 contracts [1] - Retail investors invested $430 million into the largest silver ETF, SLV, over the past six trading days [2] - The premium for domestic silver has narrowed to 1,300 yuan per kilogram, indicating a rapid cooling of domestic sentiment [3] Group 2 - The consumer confidence index rose to 57.3 in February, up from 56.4 in January, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to a 13-month low of 3.5% [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the gold market appears to be experiencing typical speculative selling [2] - Improved risk appetite in U.S. stocks led to a rebound, with silver prices showing signs of stabilization and potential recovery [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent data indicates a strengthening of the Chinese yuan against various currency baskets, reflecting a positive trend in the currency's valuation and external economic factors supporting this movement [1][5][6]. Group 1: Currency Index Performance - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index stood at 98.34, increasing by 1.35% week-on-week [1][2]. - The BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index reported 105.44, with a weekly rise of 1.38% [1][2]. - The SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index was at 93.44, showing a weekly increase of 0.92% [1][2]. Group 2: External Economic Factors - The U.S. Congress passed a funding bill, resolving a partial government shutdown, which may influence market sentiment [5]. - Federal Reserve officials expressed cautious optimism about the U.S. economic outlook, with discussions on inflation and interest rate adjustments ongoing [5]. - The U.S. consumer confidence index reached 57.3, the highest in six months, while inflation expectations dropped to 3.5%, the lowest in a year [5]. Group 3: Domestic Economic Factors - China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month, reaching $33,991 billion, up by $412 billion or 1.23% from the previous month [6]. - Gold reserves rose to 7,419 million ounces, with an increase of 40,000 ounces month-on-month [6]. - The stable economic performance in China is seen as a support for maintaining a reasonable level of the RMB exchange rate [6]. Group 4: Market Trends and Predictions - The RMB has appreciated for eleven consecutive weeks, with moderate volatility against a basket of currencies [7]. - Seasonal factors, such as pre-Spring Festival currency settlement, have contributed to the RMB's strengthening [7]. - Future RMB performance may depend on external factors, particularly the U.S. dollar's movements, as seasonal influences diminish [7].

该调查负责人Joanne Hsu表示："尽管当前信心指数为2025年8月以来最高，但近几个月的升幅都很有 限，从历史角度看，整体信心水平仍然非常低。高企的物价对个人财务状况的侵蚀，以及失业风险上升 的担忧，仍然普遍存在。"消费者对未来一年通胀的预期从1月的4.0%降至本月的3.5%；对未来五年的 通胀预期则从上月的3.3%升至3.4%。 周一(2月9日)亚洲时段，现货黄金价格高位震荡，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报5013.89美元/盎司，上涨 1.08%，最高触及5045.38美元/盎司，最低下探4963.84美元/盎司。近期金价宽幅震荡，主要受到美元走 弱及全球央行持续增持黄金的双重支撑。美元承压，使以美元计价的黄金对非美资金更具吸引力，同时 美国美联储独立性存疑及政策延迟也增加了避险需求。另一方面，央行连续增持黄金，显示官方对黄金 作为储备资产的长期需求稳定，有助于支撑价格中长期上涨。 美元指数跌至2月4日以来的最低水平，令以美元计价的贵金属对海外买家更具吸引力。尽管整周仍录得 上涨，但此时的回落，对于以美元计价的黄金而言，如同卸下了一副沉重的枷锁，使其对持有欧元、日 元等其他货币的投资者而言变得"更便宜"，从 ...

摘要今日周一(2月9日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1120.17元/克，较前一交易日上涨14.52元，涨幅 1.31%，日内呈现震荡上涨走势。当日开盘价报1110.53元/克，盘中最高触及1124.59元/克，最低下探至 1106.41元/克。 今日周一(2月9日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1120.17元/克，较前一交易日上涨14.52元，涨幅 1.31%，日内呈现震荡上涨走势。当日开盘价报1110.53元/克，盘中最高触及1124.59元/克，最低下探至 1106.41元/克。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 黄金市场在上周五展现出稳健的修复态势。价格自4655一线稳步起涨，摆脱了此前抛物线式的狂飙模 式，转而通过"慢阳上行"的健康方式，收复了前一交易日近半数的跌幅，并以阳线稳固了周线收盘。本 周一开盘，多头动能得以延续，金价成功突破并站稳5000这一重要的整数心理关口，标志着阶段性反弹 进入新阶段。 【要闻速递】 当前，金价面临的首要技术阻力位于5100附近，次要阻力则在5150一线。这两个位置因前期套牢盘及短 线获利了结压力，预计将产生较为明显的压制作用。小时线上今天开盘先跌后涨，4965是阳线起涨点， ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 企稳可多配 | 美国通胀预期走低，经过调整之后，盘面情绪有所修复。继续关注市场交易情绪调 整情况。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配 | | ★ | | 置价值不变。关注调整幅度。 | | 白银 | 不宜参与 | 白银多空交易拥挤博弈尚没有结束。尽管长期理由仍然存在供需缺口连续 5 年，全 球大财政均对白银长期有利，但是短期市场会继续调整，保持关注，短期参与难度 | | ★★ | 大，风险报酬比不合适。 | | | 黄金 | | 美国通胀预期走低，经过调整之后，盘面情绪有所修复。继续关注市场交易情绪调 | | --- | --- | --- | | ★ | 企稳可多配 | 整情况。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配 | | | | 置价值不变。关注调整幅度。 | | 白银 | 不宜参与 | 球大财政均对白银长期有利，但是短期市场会继续调整，保持关注，短期参与难度 | | ★★ | | 大，风险报酬比不合适。 | | | | 春节长假临近，市场 ...

长江铜价copper.ccmn.cn短评：美指走软与投资者信心改善共推，隔周伦铜收涨1.59%；海外中断矿山复 产艰难，国内下游备货进入尾声，且上周铜价大跌引发逢低买货，料今现铜上涨。 【铜期货市场】美指走软与投资者信心改善共推，隔周伦铜震荡走强，最新收盘报价13060美元/吨，收 涨205美元，涨幅1.59%，成交量25637手减少4686手，持仓量324508增加298手；周五晚间沪铜开高开 走涨，主力月2603合约最新收盘价报101490元/吨，涨1490元，涨幅1.49%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 伦敦金属交易所（LME）2月6日伦铜最新库存量报183275公吨，较上个交易日增加2700公吨，涨幅 1.50%。 长江铜业网讯： 宏观层面，2月6日（周五），美国密歇根大学公布数据显示，美国2月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 为57.3，高于预期的55和前值的56.4，创六个月新高，主要受股市上涨中获利的高收入群体推动。该调 查时间为1月20日至2月2日。市场关注的通胀预期方面，消费者对短期通胀前景更乐观，2月密歇根大学 1年通胀预期初值降至3.5%，为一年来最低水平，低于预期和前值的4%； ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货收涨 2.03%，报 4988.6 美元/盎司；COMEX 白银期货收涨 1.06%，报 77.525 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约收涨 2.82%，报 1115 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 3.51%，报 19840 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 1、截至 2 月 6 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 1.72 吨， 当前持仓量为 1076.23 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 减少 56.36 吨，当前持仓量为 16191.09 吨。 | | 有色与贵 | 贵金属 | 黄 金 震 荡 | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 19.9%，维持利 率不变的概率为 80.1%。 ...