Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. military action against Venezuela is expected to cause significant fluctuations in international oil prices, with short-term production and exports being impacted, leading to a potential rise in oil prices[1] - If the U.S. invests in Venezuelan oil, it may lead to a downward shift in the price equilibrium in the medium to long term[1] Economic Impact - Short-term oil price increases may exacerbate inflation expectations in the U.S., potentially affecting the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule[1] - The U.S. refinery utilization rate slightly increased to 94.7% in the week of December 26, 2025, compared to 94.6% the previous week[9] Market Performance - Emerging market stock indices rose by 2.27%, while developed market indices fell, with the S&P 500 down by 1.03%[8] - Commodity prices mostly declined, with the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index down by 0.37% and COMEX copper down by 2.62%[8] Inflation and Interest Rates - The 10-year inflation expectation in the U.S. rose by 3 basis points to 1.94% as of January 2, 2026[15] - The Federal Reserve is expected to be cautious with interest rate cuts due to geopolitical tensions affecting inflation[25] European Economic Indicators - Germany's manufacturing PMI decreased to 47.0%, while France and the UK saw increases to 50.7% and 50.6%, respectively[19] - Eurozone bond yields fell, with the 1-year yield decreasing from 2.0269% to 2.0237%[19]

周度报告-黄金 多头获利了结，贵金属高位回落 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2026 年 1 月 4 日 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金跌 4.4%至 4332 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率升至 4.19%， 通胀预期 2.26%，实际利率微升至 1.93%，美元指数涨 0.46%至 98.4， 标普 500 指数跌 1.03%，人民币升值破 7，沪金维持折价。 贵 金 属 贵金属冲高回落，白银剧烈波动，国际银价一度上涨至 82 美元/ 盎司后下跌至 72.8 美元/盎司，当周收跌 8.2%。随着 12 月交割月 的结束白银短期逼空行情告一段落，CME 一周两度上调黄金、白 银等贵金属保证金，上海期货交易所亦小幅上调贵金属保证金， 交易所降温意图明显，多头在元旦假期前获利了结离场。1 月 8-14 日，Bloomberg 商品指数迎来年度权重调整，由于 2025 年贵金属 涨幅显著高于能源、农场品等其他大宗商品，贵金属权重需要被 动降低，跟踪该指数的基金也需要相应做出调整，短期会给贵金 属带来抛压，波动预计仍会增加，但不改变长期趋势。 基本面维度关注即将公 ...

二 五 2026 年 1 月 4 日 二 〇 国债期货周报 年 度 报告导读： 摘要： 本周国债期货市场呈现震荡下行的格局，收益率曲线形态转陡峭，TL 合约下破支撑平台。 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期无法证伪 等原因，维持大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 风险提示： 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli2@gtht.com 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 yukan@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期、固收产品赎回超预期 （正文） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 本周国债期货市场呈现震荡下行的格局，收益率曲线形态转陡峭，TL 合约下破支撑平台。 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期无法证伪等原 因，维持大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 图 1：活跃合约走势 图 2：活跃合约周度涨跌幅 资料来源：Wind，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：Wind，国泰君安期货研究 市场特征方面，本周国债期货市场呈现短端 ...

（原标题：巴西通胀预期持续回落，预期2025年为4.32%） 巴西媒体12月30日报道，据巴金融市场预计，2025年通胀率将为4.32%，低于通胀目标容忍度上限 的4.5%水平。市场维持此前预期，预计巴2025年国内生产总值（GDP）增速为2.26%。目前巴基准利率 维持在15%水平不变。 ...

让衍生品 成为新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 王维芒 从业资格编号：Z0000148 邮箱：Wangwm@zhqh.com.cn 相关报告： 中辉期货-2025年宏观金银展 望—寒雪梅中尽，春风柳上 归 中辉期货-2024年宏观经济展 望-筚路蓝缕启山林,栉风沐 雨砥砺行 中辉期货-2023年下半年黄金 展望-山光正西落，池月渐东 上- 2026年金银展望 商品年报 黄金中流砥柱，白银乘风而起 摘要： 2026年，黄金与白银市场预计将在宏观金融秩序变革与微观供需结构紧张 的共同驱动下延续强势格局，但二者逻辑路径显著分化。 黄金的核心叙事围绕"去美元化"深化与信用资产重估展开。 美元在全球官方储备占比已降至56.3%的历史低位，而黄金储备占比突破 30%，各国央行——尤其是新兴市场央行——持续购金以对冲美元风险与地缘不 确定性，形成结构性买盘。同时，美联储引领的全球降息周期将持续压低实际 利率，降低黄金持有成本；美国债务规模膨胀与财政扩张政策则侵蚀主权货币 信用，强化黄金的终极避险属性。供需层 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in copper prices, with LME three-month copper prices increasing over 40% and reaching a historical high of $12,960 per ton by December 29, 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [1][2][5] - The surge in copper prices has positively impacted the stock market, particularly in the non-ferrous metal sector, with the industry index rising over 92% in 2025, and leading companies like Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper seeing stock price increases of over 125% and 153%, respectively [2][5] - Analysts predict that the upward trend in copper prices will continue into 2026, supported by a tight supply of copper concentrate and strong demand driven by AI and energy infrastructure developments [5][6] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the copper market is experiencing a "copper rush," influenced by both the monetary attributes of commodities and fundamental supply-demand factors, with a notable increase in demand from AI data centers and global energy facility reconstruction [3][4][5] - The supply side is facing challenges, including production disruptions and a tightening of copper concentrate availability, which are expected to persist and contribute to price increases [4][6] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that copper prices could range between 83,000 yuan/ton and 130,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper futures, and between $10,300/ton and $16,000/ton for LME three-month copper, driven by ongoing supply constraints and robust demand [5][6]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver futures prices have significantly declined due to the CME Group's decision to raise margin requirements for trading these metals, leading to profit-taking by investors before the new rules took effect, causing international metal prices to drop multiple times, with gold prices falling below $4500 per ounce [2][7] - The recent surge in silver prices, which have increased over 185% this year, is attributed to speculative inflows and supply disruptions, with analysts noting a high demand premium for physical silver [3][8] - A rumor regarding a major bank's short position in silver futures led to a sharp decline in precious metal prices, with silver dropping over 10% and platinum and palladium experiencing declines of around 15% [9] Group 2: Fund and Stock Market Developments - The National Investment Silver LOF has seen a significant drop in premium from nearly 70% to below 30% after two consecutive days of trading halts, highlighting issues of product innovation and premium risks in the public fund market [2][7] - The stock of *ST Dongyi is set to resume trading with an adjusted opening reference price of 8.14 yuan per share following a capital reserve increase [2][7] - Several high-performing stocks have issued risk warnings, indicating potential rapid declines in stock prices due to deviations from fundamental values [4][9] Group 3: Regulatory and Corporate Governance - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need for reforms in state-owned enterprises to enhance competitiveness and governance structures [3][8] - *ST Panda is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for alleged information disclosure violations, facing delisting risks if conditions are not met by 2025 [4][9] Group 4: Banking and Financial Issues - A case involving the misappropriation of over 10 million yuan by a bank employee has raised questions about the accountability of the bank, with ongoing civil litigation initiated by affected depositors [10] - The bond futures market has seen a decline across the board, attributed to inflation expectations and rising yields on government bonds in China, Japan, and the U.S. [10]

1、持续深化公平竞争治理等，市场监管总局部署明年重点任务 重要程度：★★★★★ 据市场监管总局网站，12月28日至29日，全国市场监管工作会议在北京召开。会议总结2025年工作，分析 当前形势，部署2026年重点任务，其中包括： 持续深化公平竞争治理，加力破除行政性垄断，加强反垄断反不正当竞争执法，深入整治"内卷式"竞争。 3、国投白银LOF：将于12月30日开市起至当日10:30停牌 重要程度：★★★ 推动提高经营主体发展质量，完善市场准入退出制度，提升经营主体信用水平，强化知识产权和商业秘密 保护。 强化平台经济常态化监管，压实平台企业"守门人"责任，突出抓好平台规则治理，加快平台监管"一库一码 一系统"建设。 落实落细市场监管领域安全监管措施，创新食品安全监管方式，强化药品安全风险防控，丰富工业产品监 管手段，狠抓特种设备行业治理。 不断深化国际交流合作，强化规则标准互联互通，主动服务我国企业出海，深度参与国际组织工作。 2、自2026年1月1日起，我国调整部分商品关税税率税目 重要程度：★★★★ 国务院关税税则委员会发布《2026年关税调整方案》，将自2026年1月1日起实施。为增强国内国际两个市 场 ...

一边是如火的大宗，一边是如冰的国债！ 今日午后，国债期货持续走弱，30年期主力合约盘中跌1.10%，10年期跌0.26%，5年期跌0.19%，2年期跌0.07%。 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.91% 报111.820元，10年期主力合约跌0.28%报107.975元。 不单是国内国债走势不行，日本国债和美国国债亦是全线杀跌。 分析人士认为，国债全线杀跌可能还是与通胀预期相关。近期大宗商品持续上行。有知名研究员认为，在投资大于消费的格局下，各产业链制造环节实物消耗均在 加剧，大宗商品的交易区间在拉长。如今不单铜银等金属在涨价，原油也开始发力。 全线杀跌 12月29日，国债期货午盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌1.04%，10年期主力合约跌0.24%，5年期主力合约跌0.17%，2年期主力合约跌0.06%。银行间主要利率债收益 率普遍上行，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率上行3.4bp报2.2550%，10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率上行2.75bp报1.9340%，10年期国债"25附息国债16"收益 率上行2.05bp报1.8560%。 午后，国债期货跌幅扩大。30年期主力合约盘中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in 2026 is expected to maintain a "bullish stock + non-bearish bond" pattern, with overall low volatility and certain investment value, despite lacking trend opportunities [2][6][7]. Group 1: 2026 Bond Market Outlook - Long-term interest rates are anticipated to experience wide fluctuations, with potential upward risks due to supply pressures and inflation expectations [8][12]. - The central economic work conference in December indicated that monetary policy will remain moderately loose, benefiting short-term assets [12]. - The bond market is expected to show structural opportunities, particularly in medium to short-term high-grade credit bonds, convertible bonds, and Chinese dim sum bonds [11][12][13]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Three key investment opportunities for 2026 include: 1. Medium to short-term high-grade credit bonds, which serve as a stabilizing component in portfolios [12]. 2. Structural opportunities in the convertible bond market, which exhibit strong fundamental support [13]. 3. Chinese dim sum bonds, benefiting from potential capital gains and currency appreciation [12][15]. Group 3: 2025 Market Review - The bond market in 2025 experienced a bearish trend, correcting from previous overpricing due to premature interest rate cut expectations [4][5]. - Factors such as the central bank's restrained liquidity release and unexpected policy changes contributed to the market's volatility [5][6]. - The overall performance of the bond market in 2025 aligned with initial expectations, although the degree of volatility and credit bond differentiation was greater than anticipated [4][5]. Group 4: Strategies for Enhancing Returns - In a low-interest environment, strategies to enhance fixed-income returns include active participation in wave trading and refining trading strategies [16][17]. - Utilizing various derivative tools to amplify capital gains while managing overall portfolio risk is recommended [17][19]. - Emphasis on multi-asset allocation and strategy optimization is crucial, particularly in convertible bonds and REITs [16][19].