Core Insights - Moody's downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, leading to a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve due to the expanding budget deficit [1] Group 1 - The downgrade by Moody's reflects concerns over the increasing budget deficit in the U.S. [1] - Following the downgrade, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has become steeper, indicating rising yields on longer-term debt [1]

Group 1 - The budget deficit for Ontario is projected to be CAD 14.6 billion for the fiscal year 2025-26, and CAD 6 billion for 2024-25 [1] - A deficit of CAD 7.8 billion is expected for the fiscal year 2026-27, with a moderate surplus anticipated for 2027-28 [1] - Economic growth is expected to slow to 0.8% in 2025, down from 1.5% in 2024 [1] Group 2 - The net debt to GDP ratio is projected to rise to 37.9% by the fiscal year 2025-26 and to 38.9% by 2026-27 [1]

Group 1 - In April, the U.S. budget surplus reached $258.4 billion, an increase from $209.5 billion in the same month last year [1] - Customs duties in April amounted to $16.3 billion, marking a historical high and a significant increase of 130% compared to $7.1 billion in the same month last year [1] - The total customs revenue for the fiscal year 2025 has reached $63.3 billion, reflecting an over 18% increase compared to the same period in fiscal year 2024 [1] Group 2 - The net interest expenditure on the $36.2 trillion national debt in April was $89 billion, making it the second-highest expenditure item after Social Security [2] - Total net interest expenditure for the fiscal year to date has accumulated to $579 billion, also ranking as the second-highest expenditure [2] - Revenue from consumption taxes has increased by $10 billion over the past seven months, primarily due to a new tax on stock buybacks introduced in the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act [2]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup strategists recommend betting on poor long-term U.S. Treasury performance due to what they describe as "expensive" U.S. fiscal risks [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Predictions - Strategists suggest preparing for an expansion in the yield spread between 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries, raising the interest rate target from the current 40 basis points to 90 basis points [1] - They anticipate a significant steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Concerns - The report highlights a shift from tariffs to fiscal narratives, emphasizing concerns over the large budget deficit resulting from aggressive tax cuts proposed by the Trump administration [1] - The expectation is that the average budget deficit will reach 6% to 7% of GDP by 2034, with public debt as a percentage of GDP increasing by 20% to 118% [1] Group 3: Debt Supply Impact - Strategists predict that for every 1% increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could rise by up to 20 basis points [2] - They caution that these calculations are "highly unstable" [2]

俄罗斯财政部：将2025年预算赤字预测从1.17万亿卢布（占GDP的0.5%）上调至3.79万亿卢布（占GDP 的1.7%）。 ...

法国一季度经济微增，但仍面临贸易冲击 金十数据4月30日讯，法国经济在年初恢复了增长，但由于全球贸易紧张局势的影响，经济进入了一个 更加艰难的环境，增长动力不足。法国国家统计与经济研究所称，第一季度GDP较前三个月增长了 0.1%。增长完全得益于库存增加，而国内需求停滞不前，贸易也带来了负面影响。总体小幅增长符合 分析师的预期，但当前经济评估尚难反映特朗普关税影响，因为大部分关税是在4月2日才宣布的。美国 贸易威胁引发的动荡已迫使法国政府将今年增长预期从0.9%下调至0.7%，并推出更多支出削减以控制 预算赤字。此前因政治危机导致2025年财政措施推迟实施，加之潜在增税带来的不确定性，已对经济造 成干扰。一季度数据显示企业、家庭及公共部门投资全面下降，出口环比下降0.7%。 ...

美联储理事沃勒：我们需要更好地控制预算赤字。 ...

国际货币基金组织：由于关税持续增长，美国预算赤字预计将在2025年降至GDP的6.5%，2026年降至 5.5%，2024年降至7.3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Russian economy is projected to maintain high growth in 2024, with GDP growth expected to reach 4.3%, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than preliminary data from the Federal State Statistics Service [1] Economic Growth - The GDP growth rate for Russia in December of the previous year was reported at 4.5% [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2023 from 1.4% in January to 1.5% [1] Public Debt and Budget - The share of public debt has decreased, and the budget deficit remains within planned limits [1] Inflation Forecast - The IMF predicts that Russia's inflation rate will reach 9.3% by 2025 [1]

英国2024/25财年预算赤字远超预期，公共财政压力增加 金十数据4月23日讯，数据显示，英国政府在刚刚结束的财政年度中的借款比官方预算预测者一个月前 估计的多出近150亿英镑，这给公共财政带来了更大的压力。英国国家统计局周三称，2024/25财年公共 部门净借款为1,519亿英镑（约合2,021亿美元）。而英国预算责任办公室（OBR）在3月份公布的预测 中预计，截至3月底的财政年度预算赤字为1,373亿英镑。智库Institute for Fiscal Studies称，这些数据表 明，到2029/30财年，政府的预算可能仅有100亿英镑的余地，而不会触犯财政规则。 ...