Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [74] Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: The U.S. International Trade Court has blocked Trump's "Day of Liberation" tariffs, leading to a slight decline in gold prices. As of May 30, the COMEX gold futures contract fell by 1.33% to $3,313.10 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.8% to 930.2 tons. Short-term uncertainties in U.S. policy, trade negotiations, and geopolitical factors continue to support safe-haven demand for gold. In the medium to long term, ongoing macro uncertainties abroad and the weakening of the dollar's credit are expected to enhance gold's monetary attributes, leading to a positive outlook for gold prices [4][7]. - Industrial Metals: Domestic metal inventories remain relatively low, with a focus on downstream demand in June [5]. As of May 30, LME copper futures fell by 1.2% to $9,497 per ton, while domestic copper social inventory reached 138,700 tons, with a slight decrease of 1,200 tons. LME copper inventory stood at 149,900 tons, indicating a positive trend in inventory reduction. The copper market shows resilience, and if downstream demand exceeds expectations, copper prices may enter an upward channel [6][7]. - Aluminum: As of May 30, LME aluminum futures fell by 0.7% to $2,448.5 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 511,000 tons, with a reduction of 46,000 tons. The global electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to decline. Despite some seasonal weakness in downstream sectors, demand remains resilient, and the aluminum price is expected to rise in the medium to long term due to policy support and improved demand expectations [6][7]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have slightly declined due to tariff uncertainties, but medium to long-term outlook remains positive due to macro uncertainties and dollar weakening [4][7]. Industrial Metals - Copper: Domestic demand is gradually recovering, with a long-term demand space opening up due to industrialization in emerging markets. The tight supply of copper concentrate is expected to support prices [6][7]. - Aluminum: The supply-demand dynamics are favorable, with expectations of rising aluminum prices due to strong demand and reduced inventory levels [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. Specific companies to watch include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining for gold, Zijin Mining for copper, and Tianshan Aluminum for aluminum [7].

周二(6月3日)亚市早盘，伦敦金现一度触及3392美元，多头剑指3400美元关键心理关口。金价周一上涨超过2%，触及逾 三周最高。 黄金行情的再度开启是多重风险因素叠加下的必然结果。包括：美国钢铝关税翻倍至50%撕裂全球供应链，美联储降息 预期重燃以及地缘政治风险加剧等。 站在当前时点，黄金同时享受着"美元实际利率下行"与"避险需求激增"的双重利好。 周二亚市早盘，美元指数一度跌至98.57，成为金价上涨最直接的推手。 特朗普周一宣布将钢铝关税提高一倍至50%，全球贸易紧张局势加剧，美元兑十国集团(G10)所有货币均出现下跌，华 尔街多家银行对美元将进一步走软的预期正在升温。 世界黄金协会数据显示，2024年各国央行黄金购买量同比增加17%，这种战略性储备转移绝非短期行为，而是对美元衰 退的长期对冲。 以Meera Chandan为首的摩根大通策略师重申了对美元的负面看法，并建议投资者转而押注日元、欧元和澳元。 在另一份报告中，高盛策略师表示，他们的模型显示美元被高估了大约15%，因此还有进一步下跌空间。该行补充称， 这一下跌很可能由全球资产重新配置和重新定价推动。 制造业PMI也发出衰退警报，美国5月制造业 ...

再看俄乌那边，本来大家还盼着伊斯坦布尔的第二轮和谈能有转机，结果谈判前双方突然开打。乌克兰发动了冲突以来最大胆的袭击，俄罗斯也不甘示 弱搞起了无人机夜袭。这种边谈边打的节奏，让市场彻底摸不着底。KCM Trade的分析师Tim Waterer说得挺到位："贸易和地缘风险同时冒头，金价走高 一点都不奇怪。" 不过这里面还有个关键因素，就是美元跌了。最近美元指数有点不争气，跌破了99关口，这对黄金来说简直是双重利好。美元和黄金向来是跷跷板，美 元一弱，黄金自然就强。而且现在全球央行都在买买买黄金，上个月净购金量又创新高，这种长期资金的流入，就像给金价打了一剂强心针。 各位朋友大家好，我是帮主郑重。这两天黄金市场又热闹起来了，周一国际金价直接坐了火箭，单日大涨2%，这背后的逻辑咱们得掰开揉碎了聊。 先来说说特朗普这招"关税大棒"。上周五他突然宣布要把进口钢铁和铝的关税从25%直接翻倍到50%，这可不是小事啊。加拿大钢铁协会直接炸锅了，说 这会导致"灾难性失业"，连欧盟都放话要报复。大家想想，美国是全球最大的钢铝进口国，加拿大和欧盟又是主要供应方，这关税一翻倍，供应链直接就 得乱套。就像加拿大工会说的，这简直是"对加 ...

市场情绪随之剧烈波动。金价当日上演V型反转，亚欧时段曾下探3245美元/盎司逾一周低位，但随着司法变局消息发酵，多头资金蜂拥入场推动金价一 度突破3330美元/盎司关键心理关口，最终收报3317.59美元/盎司，单日涨幅达0.9%。 技术面呈现多空拉锯从日线图观察，黄金价格形成带长下影线的锤头阳线，但5日均线与10日均线维持死叉形态，显示短期趋势仍存分歧。技术分析师 指出，当前需重点关注3335美元/盎司趋势线压力位争夺，若有效突破可能打开上行空间；下方支撑则上移至3300美元/盎司整数关口，若失守则需警惕 回调至3286美元/盎司区域。 5月30日亚洲时段早盘，国际金价呈现技术性回调走势，截至发稿时报3305.09美元/盎司，跌幅0.39%。日内波幅收窄至20美元区间，开盘价3319.06美元/ 盎司，盘中触及3322.52美元/盎司高位后回落，最低下探至3302.27美元/盎司。 美国政坛司法角力持续发酵，成为驱动金价波动的核心变量。周四（5月29日）联邦巡回上诉法院突发紧急裁决，暂停执行国际贸易法院前日作出的"特 朗普关税违宪"判决，令这项涉及数千亿美元贸易流的政策瞬间起死回生。司法文书显示，上诉法院要 ...

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in global financial markets have led to a short-term correction in gold prices, currently around $3,278 per ounce, but this is viewed as a technical adjustment within a longer-term bullish trend [1] - The geopolitical and economic uncertainties are enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, suggesting strong potential for future price increases [1][5] - The Federal Reserve's ambiguous policy signals, with persistent core inflation and a strong job market, are contributing to a complex environment for gold, as the potential for a shift to a more accommodative stance could provide upward momentum for gold prices [3][4] Group 2 - The recent ruling by the U.S. International Trade Court regarding tariffs from the Trump era has sparked discussions on trade policy, which could lead to renewed tensions and support for gold as a hedge against inflation and market volatility [4] - Escalating geopolitical conflicts, particularly the intensifying Russia-Ukraine war and ongoing Middle Eastern tensions, are driving demand for gold as a secure asset amidst rising global uncertainties [5] - Highland Group recommends a cautious investment strategy in gold, suggesting a phased approach to building positions while monitoring key geopolitical developments and Federal Reserve announcements [7][9]

换资前言： 方向不对，努力白费，能让你生气的行情，说明你还没有驾驭的能力，震荡的时候想单边，单边的时候 想反转，你的习惯将是你最大的弱点，不要总是与行情对着干，多总结经验，暂时的失利，不代表什 么，经验靠积累，一个优秀的分析师会让你少走很多弯路。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周四（5月29日），现货黄金延续近期弱势格局，日内虽有所反弹但仍难以突破3320美元关口，连续第 四个交易日承压。美国联邦法院裁决暂停特朗普政府关税计划，市场风险偏好显著回升，权益市场大涨 削弱了黄金的避险吸引力。同时，本周三公布的美联储会议纪要显示，官员们在政策前景不明朗的情况 下倾向于维持利率不变，这进一步支撑美元走强，对金价构成压制。市场处于微妙的平衡状态。一方 面，美联储维持谨慎立场和美国经济数据向好提振了风险资产，权益市场的强劲表现分流了部分避险资 金。另一方面，地缘政治不确定性和美元长期走势存疑使得市场不敢过度看空黄金。当前市场参与度有 所下降，多数交易员选择观望，等待更明确的方向信号。恐惧与贪婪指数显示市场情绪偏向中性，既无 过度恐慌也无明显贪婪，这种平衡状态可能还会持续一段时间。 短期来看， ...

Group 1 - The international gold market experienced significant volatility on May 29, with spot gold prices dropping over 1% to $3252.19 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures fell by 1.40% to $3276 per ounce [1][2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices in China also declined in response to international market fluctuations, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang seeing prices drop to around 1000 yuan per gram [3][4] - The recent drop in gold prices is attributed to a easing of geopolitical tensions, which reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][5] Group 2 - Recent gold price movements have shown a range between a high of $3400 and a low of $3120, indicating a downward shift in both the high and low points compared to previous levels [5] - Analysts suggest that if gold prices do not fall below the $3120 mark, there may be a potential for a rebound in the second half of the year, contingent on fundamental market conditions [5] - A recent U.S. court ruling has blocked President Trump's tariff policy, which may have implications for the broader economic environment and consequently affect gold prices [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are under pressure due to various market factors, including geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties, with current trading around $3308.84 per ounce, reflecting a 1.00% decline [1][3]. Economic Data Focus - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. April durable goods orders month-on-month, March FHFA house price index month-on-month, May Conference Board consumer confidence index, and May Dallas Fed business activity index [1]. Market Sentiment and Trade Policy - The Trump administration's threat to impose a 50% tariff on the EU has been postponed to July 9, but market concerns remain. An escalation in trade tensions could increase global economic uncertainty, potentially boosting gold's safe-haven demand [3][5]. - The fluctuating tariff policies may lead to changes in market risk appetite, impacting gold prices in both directions [3]. Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold has faced resistance around $3365, with recent price movements indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend. The price has dropped to around $3320, suggesting a correction phase may persist [3][5]. - Technical indicators show that gold prices are currently adjusting, with the possibility of further declines, particularly if the price breaks below key support levels [5]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, geopolitical issues such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and U.S.-EU trade negotiations will likely drive market volatility [3]. - Mid-term factors include the currency dynamics between the U.S. dollar and euro, as well as developments in the Middle East nuclear crisis, which will influence gold's direction [3]. - Long-term considerations involve the global de-dollarization process and geopolitical restructuring, which may lead to a significant revaluation of gold [3].

周二(5月27日)本交易日国际黄金日内维持震荡走势，今日开盘报3342.46美元/盎司，最高触及3350.03美元/盎司，最低触及3324.34美元/盎司，截止当前金价 报3325.49美元/盎司，涨幅-0.50%。黄金ETF基金（159937）盘中涨幅-0.31%，换手率1.54%，成交金额4.41亿。（数据来源：Wind） 北京首创期货指出，近期鲍威尔提出调整美联储政策框架理论上对金价有一定利空，但今年美联储对金价的影响力并不大。特朗普大而美法案通过，短期而 言，减缓了市场对经济的担忧，利空金价，但长期而言，美国杠杆率将进一步上升，长线视角利多金价。国际货币制度的松动，央行增持黄金，全球地缘局 势复杂，全球经济下行压力增加，是推动金价长期上行的主要因素。从基本面角度看，中长期变量没有发生根本性改变，从技术面角度看，黄金的中长期涨 势也没有任何改变。短期行情进入高位整理，回踩60日均线后仍是做多机会。 黄金ETF基金（159937）通过投资上海黄金交易所AU9999现货合约，实现与国内金价的高度拟合，具有低门槛、低成本和交易形式多样化等特点，支持T+0 交易。长期来看，黄金中枢随信用货币规模而稳定抬升，以及 ...

近年来，四川黄金股价整体相对弱势背后，除了有近期的股东减持，也有其他原因。四川黄金工作人员向记者表 示，黄金生产需要付出成本，目前四川黄金处于露天转地下的过渡期，这对公司业绩也会产生影响。四川黄金正 在积极探索新的矿产资源，寻找并购标的。 当前金价高位震荡，分析人士向《华夏时报》记者表示，若美伊谈判破裂，叠加以色列对伊朗核设施的潜在军事 打击威胁，市场避险情绪恐再度飙升。当前美联储政策进退维谷，叠加贸易摩擦与供应链割裂风险，黄金的避险 与战略属性形成共振，或持续吸引长期资金流入。 "最牛新股"遭两股东减持 5月21日，四川黄金公告宣布了两大股东计划的减持消息。其中，持有四川黄金股份11.56%的北京金阳矿业投资 有限责任公司（下称"北京金阳"）计划在公告披露之日起15个交易日后的3个月内，以集中竞价、大宗交易方式合 计减持本公司股份不超过10,500,000股，占本公司总股本比例2.50%。 而持有四川黄金股份8.58%的紫金矿业集团南方投资有限公司（下称"紫金南方"）计划在公告披露之日起15个交易 日后的3个月内，以集中竞价、大宗交易方式合计减持本公司股份不超过12,600,000股，占本公司总股本比例 3 ...