Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat following Trump's dismissal of board member Lisa Cook, leading to potential pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar, while increasing the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [1][4]. Market Volatility - Trump's dismissal of Lisa Cook has intensified the conflict between him and the Federal Reserve, with Cook asserting that Trump lacks the legal authority to fire her [2]. - Following the announcement, the dollar weakened but later recovered, while U.S. Treasury yields mostly declined, with the 2-year yield down 4.26 basis points to 3.672% and the 10-year yield down 0.78 basis points to 4.261% [2]. - The stock market showed resilience, with all three major indices rising, partly due to Powell's indication of a possible rate cut in September [3]. Gold's Appeal - The potential loss of Federal Reserve independence is seen as a direct attack on its core principles, which could diminish the attractiveness of U.S. assets [4]. - Gold prices surged to a two-week high, closing at $3,393.62 per ounce, up $28.02 or 0.83% [4]. - Analysts predict that if the Fed loses its independence, gold will become the preferred safe haven for investors, with central banks expected to purchase around 1,000 tons of gold this year [5]. Investment Strategies - In times of financial asset risk, tangible assets like gold and real estate are expected to become safe havens, especially if the Fed's independence is compromised [5]. - The loss of Fed independence poses long-term risks to U.S. bonds and the dollar, prompting suggestions for international investments in stable growth, low-inflation countries as a hedge against rising U.S. inflation [5].

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Current gold prices are at a high level, with significant increases in the gold consumption market, particularly with "Lao Pu Gold" initiating its second price hike of the year, with popular gold jewelry prices rising over 10% [1][10] - On August 27, COMEX gold reached a peak of 3444 points, marking a recent high [1] - As of August 26, the December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $3433.0 per ounce, reflecting a 0.45% increase [12] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Response - Many domestic gold jewelry brands have seen their prices exceed 1000 yuan per gram [3] - There has been a notable increase in consumer activity, with long queues reported at "Lao Pu Gold" stores, where customers are waiting over an hour to make purchases [6][8] - The marketing strategy employed by "Lao Pu Gold" has been effective, as evidenced by impulsive buying behavior among consumers during the price hike announcement [8]

8月26日，美三大股指均上涨。安联首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃尔-埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）称，这种 平淡的市场反应可能会引发人们的争论，一些人认为疲惫的投资者只是"不在乎"这些屡见不鲜的波动 了，一些人则认为当前下判断还为时过早，毕竟，美国总统解雇美联储高层是否合法尚存疑虑。 8月26日，《华尔街日报》在报道中警告，"是时候为美联储独立性的结束做好准备了。"在特朗普罢免 美联储理事丽莎·库克事件的影响下，投资者认定美联储地位下降将使美债、美元承压，黄金再次成为 投资者实现避险需求的"心头好"。 市场波动 几番怒怼鲍威尔之后，特朗普与美联储之间的大战仍未停歇。8月25日晚间，特朗普在社交平台Truth Social上宣布解雇丽莎·库克，立即生效。 此前，特朗普任命的住房金融局长比尔·普尔特（Bill Pulte）称，库克在入职美联储前犯有抵押贷款欺 诈行为。 库克随后表示拒绝，称特朗普没有解雇她的法律权力。她的律师补充说，将采取一切必要的行动来防止 这种未遂的非法行动。美国法律规定，美联储理事只能"出于正当理由"被罢免。据悉，库克是在2022年 拜登任期内任命的美联储理事，其任期原应在2038年结 ...

对于业绩增长原因，报告指出，主要得益于黄金产品销售价格及销量同比上升，自有矿山黄金产量增 加，叠加锰产业链业务稳步推进，共同推动营收与利润规模扩大。 2025年上半年，山东黄金矿产金产量达24.71吨，其中海外矿山贡献5.67吨。在金价上涨与需求增长带动 下，实现营业收入567.66亿元，同比增幅24.01%；净利润28.08亿元，同比增长102.98%。 生产端，山东黄金持续推进"机械化、信息化、自动化、智能化"四化建设，上半年采掘总量同比增长 29.36%，选矿处理量同比增长23.36%。主力矿山采矿机械化作业率超65%，铲装和运输机械化作业率达 100%，主要固定设施自动化率超95%，矿山综合选冶回收率提升0.23个百分点，资源利用效率进一步优 化。 重点项目建设有序推进，三山岛金矿副井工程施工至-1900米标高，刷新国内深井纪录，其采选15000 吨/日扩建工程加速办理手续；焦家金矿、新城金矿资源整合项目主控竖井工程进展顺利。海外项目 中，卡蒂诺公司纳穆蒂尼金矿产能爬坡平稳，纳米比亚Osino公司项目选厂建设计划2025年第四季度启 动，预计2027年上半年投产。资源储备方面，上半年完成探矿工程量29 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's move to remove Fed Governor Cook and potential tariff plans have boosted market risk aversion, causing a short - term spike in London spot gold prices. The main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver opened higher, but the upward momentum of Shanghai silver was insufficient. - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has slightly increased, and the market has fully priced in two rate cuts by the end of the year. However, the upward momentum on the market has weakened, and some long - position funds have flowed out, possibly due to the less - than - expected rise in rate - cut expectations after the weekend meeting. - The mid - term logic of rate cuts is bullish for gold and silver prices, but in the short term, the lack of major macro - catalysts may lead to range - bound trading. It is recommended to lightly build positions after a pullback, and short - term long - position holders should be aware of pullback risks. Specific price ranges are provided for different contracts and external markets [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai gold main contract closing price: 781.12 yuan/gram, up 1.94; Shanghai silver main contract closing price: 9354 yuan/kilogram, down 40. - Shanghai gold main contract open interest: 174,588 lots, down 5,563; Shanghai silver main contract open interest: 303,822 lots, down 18,952. - Net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold main contract: 161,166 lots, up 1,140; net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver main contract: 109,203 lots, down 9,168. - Gold warehouse receipts: 37,503 kilograms, down 12; silver warehouse receipts: 1,127,333 kilograms, up 13,692 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price: 776.86 yuan/gram, up 1.14; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price: 9319 yuan/kilogram, down 17. - Shanghai gold main contract basis: - 4.26 yuan/gram, down 0.8; Shanghai silver main contract basis: - 35 yuan/kilogram, up 23 [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings: 958.49 tons, up 1.72; silver ETF holdings: 15,288.82 tons, unchanged. - Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions (weekly): 212,590 contracts, down 16,895; silver CTFC non - commercial net positions (weekly): 46,549 contracts, up 2,281. - Quarterly total gold supply: 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84; annual total silver supply: 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. - Quarterly total gold demand: 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83; annual global total silver demand: 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2]. 3.4 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of gold: 8.48%, up 0.17; 40 - day historical volatility of gold: 10.6%, up 0.14. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold: 16.29%, up 0.02; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold: 16.29%, up 0.02 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump removed Fed Governor Cook due to alleged dishonesty and potential criminal behavior. - The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products. - Major investment banks expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, and some banks expect additional cuts in December. - Japan Post will temporarily stop receiving some mail to the US due to new tariff exemption rules [2].

周二(8月19日)，现货黄金大幅下滑，金价盘中触及8月1日以来最低。FXStreet分析师Christian Borjon Valencia指出，受地 缘政治发展以及美元走强影响，黄金重挫。 现货黄金周二收盘下跌17.09美元，报3315.55美元/盎司。 Valencia指出，交易员关注周三美联储会议纪要和周五美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话，以寻找政策路径的线索。 美联储周三将发布7月会议纪要，可能提供和美国经济展望有关的线索。鲍威尔的演讲内容和经济展望以及央行政策架 构有关。 Kitco Metals资深分析师Jim Wyckoff说："我认为，鲍威尔可能会略偏鸽派一点点，这将对黄金价格有利。" 黄金本身不生息，传统上被当成不确定性时期的避险工具，在低利率环境通常表现出色。 芝商所(CME)的"美联储观察工具"显示，交易员如今预估，美联储9月将有85%的机率降息25个基点。 追踪美元兑一篮子六种货币表现的美元指数(DXY)上涨0.13%，至98.23。 Valencia写道，随着美国总统特朗普、乌克兰总统泽连斯基和欧洲领导人讨论可能与俄罗斯进行的谈判，金价周二大幅 下挫。由于对基辅安全保障的猜测引发对战争可能结束 ...

2025年8月15日 黄金行情分析 消息面： 近期美国宏观经济释放的一系列信号，令市场普遍预期美联储在9月降息已基本确定，市场对9月降息的 押注已飙升至93.8%。更引人注目的是，美国财政部长贝森特直接提出了"一次性降息50个基点"的潜在 选项，这番相对激进的言论旋即吸引了全球市场的目光，劳动力市场的弱势表现是当前强化降息预期的 重要驱动因素，另外即将于下周揭幕的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会，将成为美联储主席鲍威尔传递关键政 策信号的重要平台，与此同时鲍威尔的任期问题，而其潜在继任者的候选名单已从3人急剧扩充至11 人，这场围绕人事安排的博弈，不仅将左右未来货币政策的航向，也显著加剧了市场的波动预期。 香港第一金1小时走势参考图 第一金MT5策略参考： 黄金3330美元看多，止损10美元，目标3370美元； 黄金3310美元看多，止损10美元，目标3350美元。 第一金免责申明：提示任何投资有风险，入市须谨慎！香港第一金系香港黄金交易所最高级AA类行员 45年老券商平台，《第一金陈生：PPLDYJ 》为香港第一金PPLI平台市场部负责人！ 香港第一金市场部负责人陈生：PPLDYJ （微）个人分析认为通胀压力与潜在的 ...

当地时间8月14日，受美7月生产者价格指数（PPI）大超预期，通胀升温，美联储9月降息预期受挫，叠 加美联储官员鹰派言论影响，金价再度走低，COMEX黄金期货价格盘中一度下探至3375美元，尾盘小 幅回升。 截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货跌0.76%报3382.30美元/盎司。截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏涨 0.12%，近两日获资金净申购4928万，黄金股ETF跌0.53%。 消息面上， 旧金山联储主席戴利明确表示，反对在9月会议上实施50个基点的大幅降息，认为此举可能 释放不必要的紧急信号。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比也敦促美联储在通胀完全受控前不要"仓促"降息。 通胀数据叠加官员的发言使得市场对于美联储的降息预期持续回调，贵金属显著承压。在围绕美国贸易 谈判以及美国总统特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京周五会晤的持续不确定性的背景下，黄金也从避险需求中获 得小幅支撑。中长期全球货币信用、公共债务，以及大国对抗的担忧仍存，尚未逆转黄金的长期走牛格 局。 在诸多复杂因素交织之下，当前，市场聚焦美联储主席鲍威尔即将在杰克逊霍尔会议上发表的讲话。 根据美联储日程安排，鲍威尔将于美东时间8月22日10点在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的堪萨 ...

基本面： 周二（8月12日）亚欧时段，现货黄金守住隔夜回吐空间后维持较弱态势，目前暂交投于3351美元附近。现货黄金价格周一大幅下挫1.6%，盘中最低触及 3341.25美元/盎司，创逾一周新低。这一跌势不仅抹去了上周五创下的历史高点3534.1美元/盎司的辉煌，还让投资者们陷入迷茫。美国总统特朗普对黄金关 税的豁免声明、中美贸易关税休战的再度延长、俄乌和平谈判的潜在进展，以及市场对即将公布的美国通胀数据的焦虑。这些事件共同削弱了黄金的避险魅 力，推动价格加速回落。然而，在美联储利率前景不明朗的背景下，通胀报告或许将成为黄金命运的转折点。 操作思路： 空单： 激进3365附近尝试，稳健3376附近轻仓空，止损10美元，目标3335/3315附近 黄金价格的暴跌，首先源于美国总统特朗普的一纸声明。上周五，有报道称华盛顿可能对美国交易量最大的金条征收针对特定国家的进口关税，这一度刺激 期金价格飙升至历史新高，投资者蜂拥买入以对冲潜在贸易摩擦风险。然而，上周五纽约时段，白宫称计划澄清关于金条进口关税的"错误信息"，这令金价 回吐涨幅，特朗普周一在其社交媒体账户上明确表示，黄金不会被征收关税，虽然他没有透露更多细节， ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - Barrick Gold's Q2 profit exceeded analyst expectations, with adjusted earnings per share at $0.47 compared to the expected $0.45 [1] - Revenue for the quarter was $3.68 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, although it fell short of market expectations [1] - The average gold price in Q2 reached $3,220.58 per ounce, up over 12% from the previous quarter and nearly 40% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Production and Market Conditions - Gold production decreased from 948,000 ounces in the same quarter last year to 797,000 ounces [1] - Barrick maintained its full-year gold production forecast for 2025 at 3.15 million to 3.5 million ounces [1] - The company's stock price fell nearly 4% in pre-market trading, influenced by a drop in gold prices [1] Group 3: Operational Challenges - The Loulo-Gounkoto gold mine complex was seized by the Malian military government, resulting in a net cost of $1.04 billion for the company [2] - The company faced operational suspension due to the Malian government's actions, including a two-month halt on gold exports [2] - Barrick has initiated arbitration with the World Bank to resolve the dispute regarding the mine [2]