摘要 / 主力又来满足愿望了！ 周五没更新，因为那个"左手平潭右手东百求虐"的故事火遍了大江南北，主力再 次在周五满足了一个小散的愿望。盘后平潭罕见上了微博热搜榜，那个炒股不用 曲面屏的段子也很火！ 现在这行情，怪不得大家抱团，其他票根本赚不到钱，可不就去这些妖股嘛？ 说是春季躁动行情，但缺乏启动条件，比如政策、增量资金、经济基本面。 不过也是有一些好消息，比如中证A500的放量，日本加息落地等。 看起来好像是一个抱团瓦解的叙事，不过平潭买一还有5.9亿，哈哈哈，搏一搏，单 车变摩托。 此外，私募一直高仓位运行。据澎湃新闻，截至12月12日，股票私募仓位指数攀 升至83.59%，较前一周环比上涨0.61个百分点，年内新高再度被刷新。 值得关 注的是，12月以来私募加仓意愿持续释放，已实现连续两周稳步加仓。70.34% 的股票私募仓位已大于80%，被明确视为"满仓状态"，为今年以来首次突破七成 关口。 下周进入"双旦"期间，市场较难出现明显放量，整体仍将处于震荡蓄势阶段，可 继续逢低布局。 机构指出，关注下一个可能有效开启躁动行情的信号，包括：1）岁末年初降准 降息落地的可能性，第一个观测窗口在下周初，第二个观 ...

中信证券：如果人民币开始持续升值 推动人民币升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开始升温，投资者要逐步适应在一个人民币持续升值的环境下 去做资产配置。从过去20年间7轮人民币升值周期来看，汇率并不是主导行业配置的决定性因素。然而，部分 行业在持续升值预期形成的初期确实会有更好表现，市场可能会复制这样的肌肉记忆，同时从成本收入分析来 看，约19%的行业会因为升值带来利润率提升，这些行业也会逐步被投资者重视起来。此外，为抑制过快单边 升值趋势而做出的政策应对，反而是影响行业配置的更重要因素。 行业配置上，在人民币持续升值的背景下，可以关注短期肌肉记忆驱动（航空、燃气、造纸等行业）、利润率 变化驱动（上游资源品和原材料、内需消费品、服务业相关品种、制造设备等）以及政策变化驱动（免税、地 产开发商、券商、保险等）三条线索。 申万宏源：非主战场的春季躁动 2026年有春季行情，且启动在即。但机构重点关注的主线结构（AI产业链，顺周期）向上空间有限，而非主 战场上（产业和政策主题，博弈高股息，各种超跌反弹），市场可能非常活跃。2025年牛市1.0（科技结构 牛）已处于高位区域，当前处于季度级别的高位震荡阶段，后续还需关注触发 ...

国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 2 | | 工业硅：逢高布空思路，关注供应扰动 | 12 | | 多晶硅：预计盘面宽幅震荡态势 | 12 | | 碳酸锂：大厂复产预期延后，短期高位运行 | 21 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年12月21日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 21 日 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 消息点评：印尼政策削弱空方信心，短线获得一定支撑，但上行驱动仍需关注政策落地情况。 1）印尼政府敦促企业重新提交了 2026 年 RKAB 预算，市场公开消息称印尼希望可以削减至 2.5 亿吨 镍矿配额。根据我们测算，预计 2024-2026 年印尼镍矿需求为 2.5、2.8 和 3.0 亿吨，2.5 亿吨的配额或 ...

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage strategy analysts remain optimistic about the spring market rally, awaiting an effective signal to initiate the movement [1] Group 1: Market Signals and Economic Indicators - Analysts from Xingzheng Strategy highlight that the liquidity expectations are shifting positively due to recent overseas events and a supportive domestic policy environment, indicating a transition from cautious behavior to actively seeking opportunities [1] - Key signals to watch for the potential market rally include the possibility of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions at the end of the year and early next year, with observation windows in early next week and January [1][2] - Important economic indicators such as PPI, PMI, M1, social financing, and annual reports from listed companies are expected to uplift the basic economic outlook [1][2] Group 2: Investment Trends and Sector Focus - The Guangfa Strategy team anticipates that 2026 will resemble an enhanced version of 2025, with continued support from insurance capital and regulation, alongside an acceleration in the migration of deposits from residents, particularly among high-net-worth individuals [1][2] - The trend of high-net-worth residents moving their deposits has already begun to accelerate, with new private equity fund registrations reaching 386 billion yuan from January to October 2025, with monthly registration sizes nearing levels seen in 2021 [1][2] - The Xinda Strategy team emphasizes the increasing elasticity of non-bank financial sectors, suggesting a potential rotation of market focus from banks to non-bank financials, with insurance valuations appearing more attractive [1][3] Group 3: Sectoral Opportunities and Predictions - Analysts suggest that sectors benefiting from policy support, such as AI, advanced manufacturing, and consumer services, are likely to see significant growth, with a projected net profit growth rate exceeding 30% in 2026 [2] - The market is expected to experience structural opportunities driven by policy guidance and industrial momentum, particularly in the context of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - The spring market rally is anticipated to be influenced by the performance of cyclical sectors, with a focus on commodities and consumer sectors benefiting from increased consumption and fiscal stimulus [3]

2025 年 12 月 21 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 继续耐心布局高景气 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 1、《由守转攻，布局高景气方向等风起 —策略周报》2025-12-07 2、《全球共振高位调整，耐心等待情绪 企稳 —策略周报》2025-11-23 3、《沪指围绕 4000 点震荡整固，轮动 有所加快 —策略周报》2025-11-09 4、《波动再度放大，如何应对？ —策略 周报》2025-10-12 5、《长假期间国内外大事一览—策略周 报》2025-10-09 投资要点 分析师：刘芳 【债市方面】做多情绪有所回升，但仍以震荡思维对待。年末市场利空或已 被充分计价，在收益率处于近期偏高水平的阶段，市场做多情绪有所回升，对 降息、公募基金费率新规落地的预期回暖。但当前债市利好落地后兑现速度较 快，预计 10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the focus on high-quality development in the photovoltaic industry, with a shift from scale expansion to quality and efficiency [3][18] - The wind power sector is experiencing growth in overseas markets, with several offshore wind projects progressing positively [31][32] - The lithium battery segment is seeing a rise in electrolyte prices, which is impacting costs, while production and sales data for November show significant growth [2][10][11] - The energy storage sector is witnessing a substantial increase in domestic installations and overseas orders, indicating strong demand [4][51] - The power equipment sector is addressing the challenges posed by AI energy demands, with significant investments in high-voltage direct current (HVDC) projects [61][68] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - The prices of lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate have increased, with electrolyte prices rising significantly [10] - November saw a month-on-month increase in battery production and sales, with total production reaching 176.3 GWh and sales at 179.4 GWh [11] - Companies with cost advantages and those expanding internationally are recommended for investment [12] 2. New Energy Generation Sector 2.1 Photovoltaic Sector - The annual conference emphasized the transition to quality and efficiency, with policies aimed at regulating capacity and monitoring prices [18][19] - The industry is expected to stabilize as irrational competition is curtailed through standards and self-regulation [19][27] 2.2 Wind Power Sector - Domestic wind power companies are increasingly focusing on international markets, with several projects underway [31][32] - Recent project developments include significant contracts in Asia and the Middle East, indicating a robust pipeline for future growth [31][32] 3. Energy Storage Sector - November saw a significant increase in new energy storage installations, with expectations to exceed last year's total [46][47] - Overseas orders for energy storage reached 41.8 GWh, with Australia and Chile being key markets [51][52] - The sector is experiencing price increases in lithium carbonate and battery cells, reflecting ongoing cost pressures [53] 4. Power Equipment Sector - The report discusses the implications of AI on energy demands, with Nvidia's summit highlighting the urgent need for energy solutions [61][62] - The State Grid has completed four HVDC projects, enhancing the national energy transmission network [68] 5. Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - The manufacturing PMI has shown improvement, indicating a stable production environment and increased demand for robotics [71]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" and has been maintained from the previous rating [5][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in overseas markets in November and anticipates innovations in smart terminals at CES 2026 [4]. - The white goods sector is experiencing stable operations, with a focus on value configuration despite a year-on-year decline in retail sales [2]. - Companies like Midea and Haier are noted for their proactive strategies and strong overseas momentum, while Gree and Aux are recognized for their potential value [2][3]. Summary by Sections White Goods - Retail sales in November showed a year-on-year decline of 19%, influenced by policy changes and high base effects [2]. - Production volumes for refrigerators, air conditioners, washing machines, and color TVs were reported at 9.44 million, 15.03 million, 17.45 million, and 12.01 million units, with respective year-on-year changes of +5.6%, -23.4%, -5.0%, and +5.5% [2]. - Export volumes for the same categories were 6.72 million, 2.7 million, 9.15 million, and 3.16 million units, with year-on-year changes of +5.6%, -28.0%, -1.3%, and +20.3% [2]. Company Developments - Midea has restructured its organization, establishing a "New Energy Division" to enhance its B-end strategy [3]. - Haier's overseas strategy is showing results, with a 34% increase in washing machine sales in Southeast Asia [3]. - Hisense's new manufacturing facility in Changsha has commenced operations, with a total investment of 10 billion yuan [3]. Consumer Technology - The report notes a positive outlook for consumer technology, particularly in the cleaning segment, with iRobot's acquisition by Shanchuan to mitigate risks [4]. - Anker's sales have shown recovery, with a 2.7% increase in Q3 and a 1.4% increase in October-November [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on white goods, particularly Haier, Midea, and Gree, due to their strong market positions and potential benefits from overseas interest rate cuts [8]. - It also suggests selecting consumer technology stocks like Ecovacs and Anker, while keeping an eye on the 3D printing industry for growth opportunities [8].

Key Points - The State Council emphasized the need for all departments to align their actions with the central government's economic work requirements for the upcoming year, enhancing responsibility and urgency in implementing specific plans [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines for establishing domestic product standards in government procurement, focusing on accurate definitions and regulatory oversight [3] - New rules on pricing behavior for internet platforms were released, prohibiting forced price reductions and promotional tactics that could pressure sellers [4] - The Ministry of Commerce highlighted plans to boost consumption and trade innovation in 2026, including support for service exports and the development of digital and green trade [5] - The National Internet Information Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission took action against accounts spreading false information related to the capital market [6] - The State Administration for Market Regulation revised the regulations on anti-competitive agreements, specifying exemption thresholds for certain vertical agreements [7] - Chang'an Automobile received the first L3-level autonomous driving license in Chongqing, marking a significant milestone in the development of autonomous vehicles [8] - Moore Threads launched a new GPU architecture, "Huagang," which reportedly improves computing density by 50% and efficiency by ten times [10] - Samsung unveiled the world's first 2nm smartphone chip, Exynos 2600, representing a significant advancement in mobile processing technology [11] - China Shenhua announced plans to acquire various assets from the State Energy Group for a total transaction price of 133.598 billion yuan [12] - ByteDance's projected annual profit of approximately $50 billion was disputed by insiders, indicating discrepancies in reported financial data [13] - The World Trade Organization's report suggested that AI could boost global trade by 34% to 37% by 2040, significantly impacting GDP growth [14] - Ongoing constructive talks between the U.S. and Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict were reported, indicating potential diplomatic progress [15] Industry Insights - CITIC Securities remains optimistic about the AI computing power sector, noting strong demand and the ongoing evolution of AI models [24] - Galaxy Securities anticipates a "small surge" in the A-share market around New Year's, driven by structural opportunities in policy-driven sectors and industries recovering from downturns [25]

Group 1 - South China University of Technology has established the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Science and Technology Innovation Industry Institute, launching a strategic signing ceremony for the Science and Technology Innovation Industry Fund, with a total fund pool exceeding 3 billion yuan [2] - The fund adopts a "LP+GP" dual management structure and a "dual currency parallel" operation model, focusing on early, small, long-term investments in hard technology [2] - Nine investment institutions participated in the signing ceremony, including Guangzhou Science and Technology Financial Innovation Investment and Guotai Junan Securities [2] Group 2 - Kaibo Capital's Chengdu New Energy Equity Investment Fund has completed an expansion, reaching a total scale of 2 billion yuan, with strategic partners including Chengdu Industrial Investment Group [3][4] - The Chengdu Industrial Investment Fund focuses on advanced manufacturing sectors such as petrochemicals and aerospace, aiming to strengthen the "industrial manufacturing" pillar [3][5] - Qiji Investment announced the first closing of its second RMB fund, raising 900 million yuan, focusing on global frontier technology in healthcare and life sciences [5][6] Group 3 - The Jinan "Artificial Intelligence+" Innovation Application Promotion Conference announced the establishment of a 5 billion yuan special fund for AI industry development [6] - The fund will focus on AI application layers, technology expansion, and foundational industry chains, targeting hard technology fields [6] - CloudWalk Technology and partners have launched a 300 million yuan AI industry investment fund, focusing on AI infrastructure and industry applications [7][8] Group 4 - Mu Xi Integrated Circuit Co., Ltd. has gone public on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with an IPO price of 104.66 yuan per share, and opened at 700 yuan, marking a 569% increase [9] - The company specializes in high-performance GPGPU chips, with over 25,000 units sold and applications in various AI platforms [9] - Galaxy General Robotics has completed a new round of financing exceeding 300 million USD, marking the largest single financing in the humanoid robot sector [10] Group 5 - Shanghai Mosheng Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. has completed an angel round financing of several million yuan, focusing on generative AI technology for humanoid robots [11] - The company aims to become a key player in the industrial intelligence upgrade and humanoid robot commercialization [11] - Guangzhou Automobile Group's subsidiary, Guangqi Lingcheng, has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Baiyun District, providing 300 million yuan to support the development of new energy commercial vehicles [12]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Global Supply Chain Strategic Partnership Conference held by Shandong Heavy Industry and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group emphasizes the theme of "Technology Leading, Comprehensive Win-Win," showcasing China National Heavy Duty Truck's role as a leader in the commercial vehicle industry and outlining a new blueprint for collaborative development with global partners [1][3]. Group 1: Performance and Market Position - In 2025, China National Heavy Duty Truck is expected to achieve a total revenue exceeding 225 billion yuan, representing a 17% year-on-year growth, with vehicle sales projected to surpass 450,000 units, a 25% increase [3]. - The heavy truck production and sales volume is anticipated to exceed 300,000 units, maintaining the top position in the Chinese industry for four consecutive years and achieving the title of the world's largest heavy truck seller [3]. - The company has upgraded its product structure, marketing concepts, and business models, resulting in significant domestic market growth, with heavy truck sales expected to reach 150,000 units (up 33%), light truck sales at 120,000 units (up 29%), and a remarkable 116% increase in VAN and pickup sales [5]. Group 2: Export and Global Strategy - China National Heavy Duty Truck's heavy truck exports exceeded 150,000 units, marking an 11% year-on-year increase and maintaining its position as the leading exporter of heavy trucks in China for 21 consecutive years [5]. - The company achieved a record monthly export of over 15,000 heavy trucks in September, while also expanding its export product categories, with light truck exports increasing by 161% and aftermarket parts sales rising by 53% [5]. Group 3: Value Proposition for Partners - China National Heavy Duty Truck aims to create a "win-win chain" by transitioning from traditional supplier relationships to deep collaborative models focused on customer value co-creation [9]. - The company is committed to building an "innovation chain" by forming tighter R&D communities and breaking down technological barriers to enhance core competitiveness across the entire industry chain [10]. - A "smart chain" will be developed through digital transformation, utilizing big data and AI to improve supply chain efficiency and transparency [10]. - The establishment of a "sunshine chain" emphasizes integrity and compliance, ensuring fair and transparent cooperation with partners [12]. Group 4: Strategic Goals and Future Outlook - China National Heavy Duty Truck has set a clear strategic goal for 2030, targeting vehicle sales of 800,000 units and revenue exceeding 400 billion yuan, providing a stable growth platform for partners [13]. - The company is positioned as a reliable partner for suppliers looking to expand into international markets, leveraging its strong leadership and growth certainty in the commercial vehicle sector [13]. - The conference highlighted the recognition from various supply chain representatives of the company's development philosophy and ecosystem, viewing collaboration as a strategic choice to participate in the rise of China's high-end equipment manufacturing [15].