Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's top forecasters warn that tariffs may trigger an economic recession, yet the stock market appears largely unaffected by these warnings [1][2]. Economic Predictions - Goldman Sachs estimates a 45% chance of recession within the next 12 months, while Apollo Global Management's chief economist places it at 90% [2]. - The S&P 500 index recently completed its longest nine-day rally since 2004, rising approximately 10% and recovering from a significant drop following President Trump's tariff announcement [2]. - Year-to-date, the S&P 500 index is down only 3.1%, indicating limited investor concern about future economic conditions [2]. Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - Despite ongoing uncertainties, consumer confidence has not significantly changed, although potential risks remain [4]. - Economists suggest that even low tariff levels could have a cascading effect on the U.S. economy, impacting consumer spending, business investment, and employment [4]. - A recent report indicated that inflation-adjusted household spending surged by 0.7% in March, exceeding expectations, possibly driven by pre-tariff purchasing behavior [4]. - Visa reported no signs of overall weakness in credit card spending as of April 21 [4]. Market Sentiment and Interest Rates - Raymond James' chief investment officer emphasizes the importance of monitoring credit card data as a potential warning signal for economic conditions [5]. - Goldman Sachs economists believe the impact of tariffs may take two to three months to reflect in inflation data, predicting a slowdown in consumer spending soon [5]. - Vanguard has lowered its U.S. economic growth forecast for the year to below 1%, citing tariffs and policy uncertainties, and expects inflation to reach 4% by year-end [5]. Stock Market Dynamics - While overall stock performance is strong, there are underlying concerns, with a few large tech companies driving the rebound [6]. - Defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities are performing well, while economically sensitive sectors such as energy and discretionary spending lag behind [6]. - Interest rate futures traders are now confident that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least three times this year, with a 63% chance of recession predicted by market bettors, up from 40% in March [6]. - The excess CAPE yield, a measure of risk compensation for holding stocks over bonds, was only 1.8% at the end of April, about half of its 50-year average [6].

Group 1 - The U.S. added 177,000 non-farm jobs in April, exceeding the expected increase of 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] - Despite strong job growth, there are indications of employment pressure among U.S. residents, with many struggling to find work after being laid off [1] - The impact of Trump's trade policies is still unfolding, with significant layoffs in the federal government and potential supply chain disruptions affecting major retailers like Walmart and Target [1] Group 2 - Concerns have been raised about the reliability of U.S. economic data, which is perceived to serve Wall Street rather than reflect the realities of residents' lives [2] - Warren Buffett criticized current U.S. trade policies and highlighted the unsustainable nature of the fiscal deficit, emphasizing the risks of currency devaluation [2] - Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves reached a record high of over $347 billion, indicating Buffett's cautious outlook on the U.S. economy [2] Group 3 - The better-than-expected non-farm data temporarily stabilized U.S. stocks, but it led to a downward adjustment in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs now predicting a cut in July instead of June [3] - Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that Trump's tariff policies could have significant negative impacts, potentially leading the U.S. into recession [3] - There is a growing disconnect between the seemingly positive economic data and the underlying realities, suggesting that financial risks in the U.S. may need to be carefully monitored [3]

Core Viewpoint - Recent decline in international gold prices has led to a significant drop in gold jewelry prices, prompting brands to offer substantial discounts to attract consumers [1][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - COMEX gold futures closed at $3247.4 per ounce on May 2, down 7.48% from the April 22 peak of $3509.9 per ounce [1]. - Major jewelry brands have seen their gold prices fall below 1000 yuan per gram, with specific prices reported at 987 yuan for Lao Miao and 998 yuan for brands like Liufu and Chow Tai Fook [3]. Group 2: Consumer Demand and Market Response - The World Gold Council reported a total global gold demand of 1206 tons in Q1 2025, a 1% year-on-year increase, but gold jewelry demand has hit its lowest point since 2020 due to high gold prices [4]. - In China, gold consumption in Q1 2025 was 290.492 tons, a decrease of 5.96% year-on-year, with gold jewelry consumption down 26.85% [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Economic Factors - Analysts from CITIC Futures suggest that the core logic driving gold prices upward is the impact of U.S. tariff policies on global supply chains and the dollar-centric monetary system, which may increase demand for gold [5]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming meeting, with a 97.2% probability of no rate change [5][6].

但高盛经济学家警告称，等关税的影响真的反映到CPI通胀里，可能还要再等两三个月，随后才会看到 消费放缓。 尽管高盛说未来12个月美国有45%的可能陷入衰退，阿波罗甚至喊出90%的高概率，但市场却在"无视 预警"地狂欢。标普500九日连涨，今年至今仅跌3.3%，债券收益率和美元也已企稳，似乎没有人真正 在担心接下来会怎样。 美东时间5月3日，华尔街日报作者Jack Pitcher和Sam Goldfarb指出，市场之所以能如此淡定，主要因为 投资者对包括周五就业报告在内的稳健经济数据充满信心，并指望特朗普总统的全球贸易战迅速降级。 然而，经济学家却忧心忡忡。他们担心持续的关税会拖累消费、企业投资和就业，最坏的可能是出 现"滞胀"，也就是物价涨但经济增长放缓。PGIM首席经济学家Tom Porcelli指出，现在的股市就像是大 家在明知道前方有风险，却还装作无事发生的样子： "由于仍然存在很大的不确定性，股市的反弹感觉就像在坟场旁边吹口哨。" 市场高兴太早了？ 作者指出，部分强劲数据只是短期掩盖了真相。3月份经通胀调整后的家庭支出激增0.7%超过预期，但 这可能是抢在关税前的囤货；Visa信用卡数据也显示，到4月 ...

新华财经上海5月4日电（葛佳明） 本周（4月28日-5月4日）美国非农就业数据超预期强劲，市场避险情绪缓解，美联储降息预期有所降温，美股三大股指 集体上涨，美元指数本周录得连续第二周收涨，收于100整数关口附近，黄金则录得连续第二周下跌，油价则因石油输出国组织等产油国（以下简称"欧佩克 +"）不愿进一步减产消息影响重挫。 美股方面，美股三大股指集体上涨，其中，标普500指数全周累计上涨2.92%，连续九个交易日上涨，为2004年以来最长连涨天数；道琼斯工业指数周累涨 3.00%；纳斯达克指数周累涨3.42%。 与此同时，美股科技股巨头财报显示，苹果、亚马逊因贸易政策和消费疲软的影响受挫，苹果全周跌幅2.2%，总市值跌至3.07万亿美元，Meta、微软则财报 亮眼，并进一步加大在人工智能（AI）方面的投入，推动了AI相关股票涨势，微软全周累涨11.12%，市值达3.24万亿美元，超越苹果，重回全球市值第一。 北京时间5月8日凌晨2:00美联储将公布利率决议，目前市场预期美联储将在此次会议上维持利率不变。随后美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。 欧股方面，欧洲各国股指多数走强，其中欧洲STOXX 600指数本周涨3 ...

宏观面 黄金方面，周三黄金价格总体呈现下跌的状态，当日价格最高上涨至3327.91位置，最低下跌至3266.79位置，收盘于3288.16位置。针对周三黄金 在早盘期间先行承压下跌并如期下破四小时及日线支撑，随后美盘再度反弹后承压，最终日线级别大阴状态收尾，价格已经跌破日线支撑，则后 续需要关注波段下跌的延续表现。 从多周期分析，首先观察月线节奏，价格前期是三个月上涨后出现单月修正，近期属于四个月上涨出现单月修正，所以按照节奏上看已经出现四 连阳，对于五月份就要重点注意市场风险。从周线级别来分析，黄金价格受撑于3040区域的支撑位。那么从中线角度来看，我们可以持续保持看 多的观点，价格下跌仅作为中期上涨中的修正。从日线级别观察，目前价格阻力于3007区域，此位置是波段走势的关键分水岭，价格在此位置之 下则后续波段空对待。同时对于短期四小时上价格阻力于3290附近，所以后续价格在四小时阻力下维持空对待。整体上价格在四小时阻力及日线 阻力之下维持空对待即可。 黄金3290附近空，防守3310，目标3230-3195 【今日重点关注的财经数据与事件】2025年5月1日周四 美国第一季度 GDP 数据显示经济环比年率 ...

美国商务部4月30日公布最新数据显示，2025年第一季度，按年率计算，美国国内生产总值（GDP）环比萎缩0.3%，为2022年以来的首次收缩。 这一最新数据的糟糕程度超出市场预期，凸显美国政府关税政策引发的不确定性持续上升，并导致企业与消费者信心下滑。 △美国消费者新闻与商业频道网站报道截图 中国国际经济交流中心美欧研究部副部长张茉楠在接受中央广播电视总台环球资讯广播采访时分析指出，美国第一季度的数据显示，关税政策已经对美国经 济产生了全面的负面影响。 首先，现在的关税政策使美国与其他国家的贸易摩擦加剧，企业为规避关税带来的成本，提前增加进口，这也使得美国进口量大幅增加。一季度美国贸易逆 差创纪录地扩大，远超市场预期，拉低了美国一季度GDP。 其次，关税政策的不确定性以及对美国经济增长的担忧，让美国消费者的信心受到打击，消费者支出进一步减少，特别是减少不必要的开支，这也给美国 GDP带来了负面效应。一季度美国个人实际消费支出创2023年第二季度以来的新低。 另外，美国关税政策的不确定性，也让企业进一步减少投资，导致就业市场岗位减少。一些企业为了维持现有规模，不得不裁员。4月美国就业市场中，私 人部门就业人数仅 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：价格前景有可能发生偏离。 目前无法确定将如何应对滞胀。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：价格在一定程度上可能会超过我们的中值预测。如果出现滞胀，难以决定应优 先关注实体经济还是通胀问题。 ...

宏观面 在美元指数的表现上，周三美元指数呈现出上涨态势。当日美元指数价格最高攀升至 99.685的位置，最低则下探至99.113，最终以 99.611的价格收盘。回顾 周三市场表现，在早盘期间价格短线先获得支撑进一步上涨，随后价格按照震荡上涨的方式运行，价格在欧盘时间点进行再度站稳四小时阻力及日线阻力位 置，最终当天大阳收尾。对于后续美指继续按照波段多对待。 从多周期分析，周线级别来看价格压制在103.90区域阻力，那么从中期视角出发，美元指数的走势将更偏向于空头。在日线级别上价格站上99.40区域阻力 位，那么从波段看价格已经突破并站稳日线阻力，则前期阻力变支撑，后续波段看多。短期四小时上看99.30区域支撑，价格在此位置之上则短期依旧维持 偏多表现，后续关注价格进一步持续上涨。 美指99.30-40区间多，防守5美金，目标99.80-100.20-100.60 美国第一季度 GDP 数据显示经济环比年率萎缩 0.3%，远不及市场预期的增长 0.3%，主因企业为避关税提前进口致贸易逆差扩大。不过服务业支出增长 2.4%，显示经济未全面衰退。这种矛盾数据影响黄金市场，经济放缓带来美联储降息预期利好黄金，消费韧 ...