Group 1 - The financial markets experienced a significant sell-off, termed "Sell America," due to President Trump's threats to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, leading to investor disappointment and uncertainty [1][10]. - The period of "Sell America" occurred from April 4 to April 22, coinciding with Powell's remarks about the potential negative impact of Trump's tariff policies on the U.S. economy [1][10]. - The S&P 500 index formed a "death cross" for the first time in three years on April 14, indicating potential further declines in the market [10][11]. Group 2 - Economic indicators show a mixed outlook, with March's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising only 2.8%, below expectations, suggesting a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve [2][4]. - Consumer spending is declining across various income levels, with households cutting back on non-essential purchases, indicating economic strain [3][4]. - Economists predict a 40% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, with concerns that rising tariffs could exacerbate inflation and hinder economic growth [4][5]. Group 3 - Trump's administration has created uncertainty regarding trade policies, which has negatively affected business sentiment and consumer confidence [3][7]. - The potential dismissal of Powell raises questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is crucial for maintaining market stability [9][8]. - The recent turmoil in financial markets reflects a broader loss of confidence in U.S. economic policies and the safety of American financial assets [10][11].

周内(4月21日至4月25日)，大宗商品涨跌不一，基本金属、黑色系板块领涨，航运板块领跌。 就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周上涨1.51%、原油上涨1.10%，碳酸锂下跌2.85%；黑 色系板块，铁矿石周上涨1.43%、焦煤上涨0.37%；基本金属板块，沪镍周上涨0.05%、沪锌上涨 3.17%、沪铜上涨1.71%；农产品板块，棕榈油周上涨3.00%、豆粕上涨0.33%、生猪下跌2.18%。航运板 块，集运欧线周下跌10.95%。交易行情热点 热点一：美联储独立性受影响，黄金收出高位十字星 黄金本周盘中价格创出新高，COMEX黄金一度突破3500美元盎司关口，随后快速回落，COMEX黄金 和伦敦金周线均收出十字星。具体来看，COMEX黄金下跌0.33%，报3330.2美元/盎司；伦敦金下跌 0.17%，报3318.62美元/盎司。 据南华期货（603093）统计：长线基金持仓看，上周SPDR黄金ETF持仓周减6吨至946.3；iShares白银 ETF持仓周减164.1吨至13956吨。短线基金持仓看，根据截至4月22日的CFTC持仓报告，黄金非商业净 多头寸周减26832张至175378张，其中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In recent weeks, the performance of major global market assets generally aligns with the scenario assumption that the US will fall into "stagflation." The US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets are under pressure, while the A-share market shows resilience, and the gold price hits new highs. The significant tariff hikes by the US will impact the supply chain and have a negative impact on its economic growth. It is also highly likely to push up inflation in the short term. Whether tariff-induced inflation will turn into persistent stagflation is the key to determining the intensity and duration of trade frictions. If persistent stagflation occurs, the situation of a triple sell-off in US stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange will continue, increasing the difficulty for the Trump administration to persist in trade frictions [2][10]. - The consumption rigidity of US residents is crucial for the realization of the stagflation scenario. The retail data of US goods in the second quarter is particularly important. If US residents' consumption is rigid, the tariff hikes will mainly be passed on to commodity prices, and workers may demand higher wages, forming a new "wage - price spiral," increasing the probability of persistent stagflation. The nominal growth rate of US commodity retail sales in April is an important indicator. If it significantly exceeds the previous fluctuation range, it is more in line with the stagflation scenario assumption; otherwise, it is necessary to consider whether the current style of major asset classes has reached the extreme. The CPI data for April also has indicative value, but retail data reflects both price and quantity [2][11]. - Another factor determining whether the stagflation scenario can be realized is the policy choice of the Federal Reserve. Even if tariffs are regarded as consumption taxes, their inflationary effects may not be long - lasting. If the Trump administration forces the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy, the stagflation scenario is more likely to be realized. However, if the Trump administration only wants to blame the possible economic recession on the Federal Reserve, the situation may be different [2][14]. Summary According to the Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The performance of major global market assets in recent weeks is in line with the scenario assumption of US stagflation. The US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets are under pressure, while the A - share market shows resilience, and the gold price hits new highs. The tariff hikes by the US will impact the supply chain and push up inflation in the short term. Whether it turns into persistent stagflation is the key to trade frictions [10]. - The consumption rigidity of US residents is crucial for stagflation. The second - quarter US commodity retail data is important. In April, the US imposed so - called "reciprocal tariffs." If the nominal growth rate of retail sales significantly exceeds the previous range, it is in line with the stagflation scenario; otherwise, it is necessary to re - evaluate the asset style. The April CPI data also has indicative value [11]. - The policy choice of the Federal Reserve is another factor for stagflation. The inflationary effect of tariffs may not be long - lasting. Forcing the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy may lead to stagflation, but if it's just for blame - shifting, the situation may vary [14]. - In the week from April 21 to April 26, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.65% week - on - week and 1.64% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index decreased by 2.07% week - on - week and 9.83% year - on - year. On April 18, the edible agricultural product price index decreased by 0.30% week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 3.61%. Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices increased by 1.23% and 0.74% week - on - week respectively. LME copper and aluminum spot prices increased by 2.72% and 2.27% week - on - week respectively, and the copper - gold ratio increased by 0.91% week - on - week. The domestic cement price index decreased by 0.48% week - on - week; the Nanhua iron ore index increased by 1.43% week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons increased by 2.54% week - on - week; the rebar inventory decreased by 4.58% week - on - week; the rebar price index increased by 1.37% week - on - week. On April 18, the producer price index decreased by 0.30% week - on - week and 7.27% year - on - year. From April 1 to 24, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 203,000 square meters [2]. Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trends - Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export amount year - on - year, the relationship between the producer price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year, etc. [22][25][31] Important US High - Frequency Indicators - Multiple charts show important US high - frequency indicators, including the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts in US federal funds futures, the relationship between US same - store sales growth and PCE year - on - year, the relationship between US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, and the relationship between the number of first - time unemployment claims in the US and the unemployment rate [89][96][99] Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - Multiple charts show the seasonal trends of high - frequency data, including the seasonal trends of the average daily output of crude steel (decadal), the producer price index, the total index of the China Commodity Price Index, etc. [100][104][109] High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - Multiple charts show the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [154][156]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a rebound this week, with the Dow Jones up 2.48%, S&P 500 rising over 4.5%, and Nasdaq increasing by 6.73% [1] - Despite the rebound, some Wall Street institutions remain pessimistic about the market's future [1][2] - Bank of America warns that the recent stock market rally will be temporary, advising investors to sell during the rebound [4] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs reported that foreign investors have withdrawn $63 billion from the U.S. stock market since early March, with Europe being the largest seller [3] - A survey by JPMorgan indicates that U.S. stocks will see the most significant capital outflow this year, while cash is viewed as the most favorable asset class [3] - Analysts expect continued market volatility, with upcoming earnings reports from tech giants being crucial for market direction [5] Group 3 - The U.S. economy faces multiple challenges, including long-term growth imbalances, significant wealth gaps, and over $36 trillion in national debt [6] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a slowdown in U.S. economic growth to 1.8% by 2025, marking the largest downward revision among developed economies [6] - Wall Street anticipates a substantial slowdown in U.S. GDP growth for the first quarter, with Goldman Sachs predicting a growth rate of only 0.1% [6] Group 4 - Concerns over "stagflation" have heightened, leading to increased volatility in U.S. markets, with simultaneous declines in U.S. stocks and bonds [7] - The U.S. government's debt burden is rising, with increased financing costs due to high inflation and interest rates, raising concerns about potential defaults [7] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to implement "recession-style" rate cuts are growing, reflecting deteriorating economic fundamentals [7]

4 . 1 9 - 4 . 2 6 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 深度专题 1、坚定不移办好自己的事——4月政治局会议精神学习理解 热点思考 1、 美元："巴别塔"的倒塌？——"汇率"观察双周报系列之一 2、 美国经济：关税冲击与"滞胀"踪迹——关税"压力测试"系列之三 3、 财政"续力"正当时 4、 "关税冲击"的行业脉络？ 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、"周见"系列会议第28期 《服务消费"画像"》 2、"洞见"系列会议第56期 《美元：" 巴别塔 "倒塌？"汇率"观察双周报系列之一》 3、"洞见"系列会议第57期 《美国经济：关税冲击与"滞涨"踪迹——关税"压力测试"系列之三》 深度专题 1 坚定不移办好自己的事——4月政治局会议精神学习理解 深度研究 2025.4.25 《坚定不移办好自己的事——4月政治局会议精神学习理解》 "坚定不移办好自己的事"，"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策" 1、 海外高频 | 特朗普关税态度软化，3月美国零售反弹 2、 政策跟踪 | 推动各方面政策措施早出手、快出手 3、 国内高频 | 港口货物吞吐量涨幅较大 4、 Top Cha ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the **commodities market**, highlighting the current trends and historical comparisons to the 1970s and 1930s [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Globalization and Economic Trends**: - Increasing trade frictions are exacerbating the trend of de-globalization, resembling the 1930s and 1970s, with the current situation more akin to the 1970s stagflation environment [1][2]. - The current asset price structure reflects a stagflation bull market, with significant increases in gold and copper prices, while the dollar and U.S. stock markets are declining [1][4]. 2. **Supply Shocks**: - Supply shocks are a natural outcome of the de-globalization trend, with resource-rich countries implementing export bans on commodities like nickel, bismuth, cobalt, and tin [1][5]. - Historical parallels are drawn to the 1978 weather extremes and Middle Eastern geopolitical uncertainties that caused supply shocks [5]. 3. **Demand Dynamics**: - Despite economic downturns, the apparent consumption of industrial metals like copper and aluminum has not significantly decreased, indicating structural demand stability [8]. - Strategic reserve policies, similar to the 1979 U.S. mineral reserve amendments, are driving commodity demand upward [8][9]. 4. **Geopolitical Influences**: - The current geopolitical landscape, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led to increased inventory levels across industries, with countries like China, the U.S., and Europe boosting resource strategic reserves [9]. 5. **Dollar Supply and Inflation**: - The oversupply of dollars, driven by fiscal expansion, has historically led to rising resource prices, a trend that is currently being observed due to extensive fiscal stimulus measures [10][11]. - The current U.S. national debt exceeds 120% of GDP, significantly impacting interest expenses and indicating a more severe dollar crisis compared to the 1980s [14]. 6. **Comparison with Historical Context**: - The current situation is contrasted with the 1970s, where the latter part of that decade saw a commodity bull market followed by a prolonged downturn, while the present may mark the beginning of a long-term commodity bull market [13][16]. 7. **Investment Recommendations**: - It is advised to invest in dollar-denominated short-duration assets like gold and copper, as their pricing is expected to rise due to the weakening dollar [17]. - Long-duration assets priced in RMB are also recommended, anticipating an increase in the value of future cash flows due to China's rising power and currency appreciation [17]. Other Important Insights - The long-term impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could lead to a 1-2% increase in U.S. CPI, affecting inflation dynamics beyond his term [16]. - The transition of certain metals from industrial to financial assets due to the depreciation of the dollar index has increased their market demand [12].

消费者行为亦出现扭曲：关税生效前的"抢购潮"推高了汽车等耐用品需求，但非耐用品消费整体下滑，反映出家庭对未来物价持续上 涨的担忧。更严峻的是，亚特兰大、圣路易斯等地区企业因政策不确定性暂停资本开支，军事装备制造商直言"环境过于混乱"而冻结 投资，建筑业则预计需求将因成本激增"断崖式下跌"。 4月24日，美联储发布的最新一期《褐皮书》以107次"关税"和89次"不确定性"的高频词汇，勾勒出美国经济在贸易政策剧震下的复杂图 景。 贸易政策冲击波：从价格传导到投资冻结 关税政策对实体经济的渗透远超市场预期。 报告显示，钢铁、铝材、汽车零部件等关键行业首当其冲，企业被迫通过缩短定价周期、增设关税附加费甚至每日调价来转嫁成本压 力。例如，芝加哥联储辖区的机械制造商因原材料关税导致成本飙升，被迫每日调整产品价格；里奇蒙联储的咖啡烘焙商则遭遇"历史 性成本上涨"，而金属板材制造商因订单骤减陷入生存危机。 滞胀阴云初现：工资与物价的螺旋困境 尽管美联储强调通胀压力"暂时性"，但褐皮书揭示的微观动态已显露滞胀苗头。 多数地区报告工资增长加速，旧金山联储甚至观察到"工资与物价齐涨"的现象，这与企业裁员迹象并存形成矛盾：一方面，医 ...

由于关税引发的衰退和滞胀风险，摩根大通认为，黄金的结构性牛市将继续增强。 摩根大通Gregory C. Shearer团队在22日的研报中预测， 黄金价格将于2025年第四季度达到均价3675美元/盎司，并在2026年第二季度突破4000美元/盎司关 口。 | Figure 1: JPM gold & silver price forecasts | | --- | | | | 4Q2024A | A WE SCHERESS: WARRENDER BREIN SECTION SECTION SEE WINNER 2024A | 1Q2025A | 202025 | 3Q2025 | 4Q2025 | 2025 | 1Q2026 | 2Q2026 | 3Q2026 | 4Q2026 | 2026 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | New | 2,664 | 2,389 | 2,872 | 3.400 | 3,515 | 3 675 | 3,365 | 3,840 ...

海外资金大举涌入日本债股 全球基金加速逃离美资产 金十数据4月24日讯，数据显示，日本债券和股票有望迎来有史以来最大规模的单月海外资金联合流 入，这进一步表明全球基金正在寻找美国资产的替代品。根据日本财务省周四公布的每周初步数据，截 至4月，海外投资者已净买入9.64万亿日元（675亿美元）的日本债券和股票。根据可追溯至1996年的国 际收支数据，这一水平已经是有记录以来任何一个月中的最高值。最新的资金流入数据证实了这样一种 猜测：随着不断提高的关税引发了人们对潜在滞胀的担忧，全球基金正在撤离美国市场。瑞穗证券驻东 京的首席交易台策略师大森章生表示："可以想象，海外投资者将日本金融资产视为安全资产，因此增 加了对它们的持有量。日元仍相对疲软，这可能让人们认为日本金融资产被低估了。" ...

Report Investment Rating - The rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, pending fundamental verification [4]. Core Viewpoints - External risks have risen, but the domestic trend remains optimistic. China's economic new pattern driven by domestic demand and innovation is taking shape. The window for interest rate cuts may open in the second quarter. Attention should be paid to the window period of domestic easing policies during the April Politburo meeting [1]. - The negative impact of tariff events on asset prices has temporarily ended. Future focus should be on the impact on the economic fundamentals. The US tariff policy may lead to stagflation in the US economy [2]. - For commodities, focus on the transmission of fundamentals in the short - term and stagflation allocation in the long - term. The rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's government has set a positive tone for the year, with an increased deficit rate, a lower CPI target, and expanded government credit. China's Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year. The LPR has remained unchanged for 6 consecutive months, and the interest rate cut window may open in Q2 [1]. - Trump's tariff policy has been volatile. The US has imposed high anti - dumping and anti - subsidy taxes on Southeast Asian countries' photovoltaic products. Trump may "significantly reduce" tariffs on China. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations with Japan and the EU [2]. Commodity Analysis - From the 2018 tariff review, the market first trades on the decline in demand and then on the rise in inflation. Industrial products are vulnerable to the impact of US stock market adjustments. The accident at the Antamina copper mine in Peru supports copper prices. Agricultural products may see price increases, and attention should be paid to the change in the soybean - palm oil spread. Crude oil prices have declined, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term [3]. Strategy - The rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [4].