Group 1 - The U.S. has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, which includes a 20% tariff on all goods exported to the U.S. from Vietnam, higher than the current 10% baseline tariff but lower than the previously planned 46% "reciprocal tariff" [1][2] - Vietnam will also face a 40% tariff on goods that are transshipped through Vietnam to the U.S. from other countries [1] - The agreement allows Vietnam to open its market to U.S. products with zero tariffs, particularly benefiting U.S. SUVs and large engine vehicles [1] Group 2 - Following the announcement of the trade agreement, stocks of major apparel and footwear brands that source products from Vietnam saw significant gains, indicating reduced uncertainty in the apparel industry [2][4] - The S&P 500 index reached a new intraday high, reflecting positive market sentiment following the trade news [6] - Vietnam is set to purchase $8 billion worth of Boeing aircraft as part of the trade agreement, contributing to a rise in Boeing's stock price [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article reports that the United States and Vietnam have reached a trade agreement, with President Trump announcing that all Vietnamese exports to the U.S. will face at least a 20% tariff, while the U.S. will fully open its market to Vietnam [1]. Group 1 - President Trump confirmed the trade agreement with Vietnam on social media, stating that details will be announced later [1]. - The agreement includes a significant tariff of at least 20% on all Vietnamese exports to the U.S. [1]. - Vietnam's General Secretary, Nguyen Phu Trong, discussed bilateral trade issues and urged the U.S. to recognize Vietnam's market economy status and lift restrictions on high-tech exports to Vietnam [1].

Group 1 - The article discusses a new trade agreement between the United States and Vietnam, announced by President Trump, which includes a 20% tariff on all goods exported from Vietnam to the U.S. and a 40% tariff on transshipped goods [2][5][10] - Vietnam has agreed to eliminate tariffs on U.S. products, allowing for zero tariffs on American exports to Vietnam, which is seen as a significant market opening [3][6] - The announcement led to volatility in the U.S. stock market, particularly affecting furniture and apparel stocks, with companies like ON Holding and Lululemon experiencing notable price fluctuations [7][8] Group 2 - Vietnam is a key supplier of textiles and athletic apparel, with major brands like Nike, Gap, and Lululemon manufacturing in the country, and it was the sixth-largest source of U.S. imports last year, with exports to the U.S. nearing $137 billion [6] - The article highlights uncertainty regarding the implementation of the transshipment plan and whether the agreement has been finalized, as the U.S. government has not provided clarity on the specific goods subject to the 40% tariff [9][10] - The potential for increased tariffs on Vietnamese goods could rise to at least 46% if previous tariff announcements remain unchanged, which could significantly impact trade dynamics [11]

美国农业部长：美国农业将从与越南的贸易协议中受益。 ...

Group 1 - The United States and Vietnam have reached a trade agreement, announced by President Trump, which was a result of weeks of diplomatic negotiations [1] - Under the agreement, Vietnamese goods exported to the U.S. will incur a 20% tariff, while goods involved in "transshipment" will face a 40% tariff [1][7] - Vietnam has agreed to eliminate all tariffs on U.S. imports, allowing for zero tariffs on U.S. products sold in Vietnam [1][7] Group 2 - The trade agreement comes amid increasing pressure from the U.S. on Vietnam to combat trade fraud and eliminate non-tariff barriers [7] - Vietnam has committed to purchasing $3 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products as part of the negotiations [7] - Vietnam has seen a significant increase in exports to the U.S., becoming a major supplier of textiles and athletic apparel, with exports totaling nearly $137 billion last year [2][7]

特朗普：与越南达成贸易协议 越南市场将对美国全面开放 金十数据7月2日讯，美国总统特朗普表示：我刚刚与越南达成了一项贸易协议。这将是我们两国之间的 大量合作。条款规定，越南将向美国支付20%的关税，适用于任何进入我们领土的商品，且对任何转运 货物征收40%的关税。作为回报，越南将做一件前所未有的事情，那就是向美国完全开放市场进行贸 易。换句话说，他们将"向美国开放市场"，这意味着我们将能够以零关税向越南销售我们的产品。在我 看来，SUV汽车在美国市场表现得非常好，它将在越南市场的各类产品线中成为一个很好的补充。 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 订阅特朗普动态 +订阅 跟踪越南市场动态 +订阅 ...

特朗普宣布，越南将对美国出口支付20%的关税，将对任何转口贸易支付40%的关税。越南市场对美国全面开放，越南将对美国商品实施零关税。#行情 耐克瞬间抹除超过3%的涨幅并短暂转跌。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普：与越南达成贸易协议，详细信息将在稍后公布。 ...

特朗普：与越南达成了贸易协议 美国总统特朗普：与越南达成贸易协议，详细信息将在稍后公布。 ...

铝金属板块拉升，世纪铝业涨超4%，美国铝业涨超3.7%，凯撒铝业涨超1.5%。消息面上，据称欧盟愿 意接受与美国达成的一项贸易协议，该协议包括对其许多出口产品征收10%的普遍关税。同时，欧盟正 在敦促美国给予配额和豁免，以有效降低华盛顿对汽车、汽车零部件、钢铁和铝征收的关税。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][4][5][7] Core Viewpoints - The oil price fluctuates to find a direction under the background of OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes, and is expected to continue the oscillating rhythm in the short term [1] - The high - sulfur fuel oil may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies; the low - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient, and the internal and external price difference is expected to remain low [2] - The asphalt supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies [2] - The polyester products are affected by device conditions and downstream demand, and the prices are expected to oscillate [3] - The rubber price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the balance of supply and demand [3][5] - The methanol price is expected to oscillate as the import volume may increase and the MTO profit is compressed [5] - The polyolefin supply is high but the increase is limited, and the price center moves with the cost [5] - The PVC price is expected to continue oscillating due to the off - season demand and the change of basis and monthly spread structure [5][7] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the oil price center moved slightly higher. OPEC+ is expected to announce an 8 - month daily production increase of 411,000 barrels on July 6. Trump's trade remarks and inventory data affect the oil price, which is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures prices fell on Tuesday. The inventory of imported raw material oil in Shandong decreased year - on - year. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger, and the price may rebound briefly, while the low - sulfur supply is sufficient [2] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price rose on Tuesday. The July production is expected to increase. The pricing center may shift back to the north after the peak season in the north [2] - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX fluctuated on Tuesday. The MEG and PTA devices are affected, and the downstream demand is weak, so the prices are expected to oscillate [3] - **Rubber**: The rubber futures prices rose on Tuesday. The heavy - truck sales increased in June, but the raw material price decreased, and the inventory increased slightly, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [3][5] - **Methanol**: The methanol spot prices are given. With the recovery of Iranian devices, the import volume may increase, and the MTO profit compression may lead to device maintenance, so the price is expected to oscillate [5] - **Polyolefins**: The prices and profits of polyolefins are provided. The supply is high but the increase is limited, and the price center moves with the cost [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market prices in East, North, and South China decreased. With the off - season demand, the price is expected to continue oscillating [5][7] Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical commodities on July 2, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, etc [8] Market News - Investors are concerned about the trade negotiations before the July 9 tariff deadline set by Trump. The US Treasury Secretary warns that tariffs may be raised significantly [10] - The US API crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased by about 700,000 barrels last week, and there were also changes in other inventory data [10] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various commodities from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, etc [12][13][14][16][19][22][23][25] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis charts of main contracts of various commodities are provided, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc [27][29][33][36][39][40] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows the spread charts of different contracts of various commodities, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc [42][44][47][50][51][55][57][58] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spread and ratio charts between different commodities are presented, including crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc [59][61][65][66] - **Production Profits**: The production profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc are shown [68][70] Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy - chemical research, with rich experience and many awards [72] - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst of crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with professional background and achievements [73] - **Di Yilin**: An analyst of natural rubber and polyester, with awards and media exposure [74] - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst of methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with relevant academic and practical experience [75] Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [77]