Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a significant surge, with prices approaching the $5000 per ounce mark, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets and declining trust in the US dollar [3][4][6]. Price Movement - As of January 21, the London gold price reached a high of $4888.17 per ounce, with a recent increase of $267 per ounce over three trading days, marking a weekly gain of over 5.7% [3][4]. - COMEX gold futures reported $4869 per ounce, with a single-day increase of $100, reflecting a rise of over 2% [6]. Market Sentiment - There is a growing bullish sentiment in the precious metals market, but institutions warn of increased short-term correction risks due to overbought conditions after surpassing $4800 [4][7]. - The market is characterized by a split in investor sentiment, with some individuals eager to invest in anticipation of reaching $5000, while others are cautious and opting to reduce exposure or wait for a clearer entry point [9][10]. Institutional Insights - Analysts suggest that while the long-term trend for gold remains upward, short-term pressures may lead to price corrections, particularly if the US dollar index rebounds or global risk appetite improves [7]. - The recent surge in gold prices has led to a significant increase in gold ETF holdings, with the largest domestic gold ETF surpassing 100.76 billion yuan in assets [9]. Regulatory Actions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has raised margin requirements and trading limits for gold and silver futures to manage market volatility and ensure orderly trading [11]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of rational investment strategies, advising investors to avoid blindly chasing high prices and to consider their risk tolerance and investment horizon [11].

中经记者 秦玉芳 广州报道 黄金价格再创历史新高。截至1月21日，伦敦现货金价开盘4764.5美元/盎司，盘中最高达4878美元/盎 司，日内涨幅超过2%；自1月19日以来3日内涨幅接近6%。 随着国际金价屡创新高，且持续高位震荡，近来黄金ETF资金配置分化趋势也愈加显现。一方面，国际 大型资金短期头寸调整，战术性获利了结态度显现。截至1月20日（周二），全球最大黄金上市交易基 金（ETF）SPDR Gold Trust黄金持仓量为1081.66吨，较前一交易日减少4.01吨。 张思远表示，这种分化意味着本轮金价上涨的驱动力已从传统投资需求转向央行购金等长期配置。ETF 资金流向与实物需求的"剪刀差"，反映出黄金市场投资结构正从"金融投机主导"转向"战略配置主导"。 在分析国内市场的特征时，张思远指出，国内投资者通过黄金ETF参与市场呈现三大新特征：一是规模 爆发式增长，华安黄金ETF规模突破千亿元，成为亚洲最大黄金ETF，反映配置需求常态化；二是高位 增持意愿强烈，即使国际金价突破4700美元，境内黄金ETF份额仍保持增长，与SPDR减仓形成反差； 三是散户与机构行为分化，散户通过低门槛ETF入场，机构则偏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant growth, with spot and futures gold prices surpassing $4800 per ounce, reaching new historical highs, and predictions for 2026 gold prices varying among major financial institutions, with estimates as high as $6600 per ounce [1][4][15]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of January 21, spot gold reached $4874.105 per ounce, marking a 2.33% increase, while COMEX gold was at $4878.5 per ounce, up 2.36% [1][12]. - In January, the spot gold price has increased by over 8%, translating to a rise of more than $380 [3][14]. - The World Gold Council reported that in 2025, gold prices set records 53 times, leading to unprecedented investments in physical gold ETFs, particularly driven by North America [3][14]. Group 2: Gold ETF Investments - In 2025, global gold ETF inflows reached $89 billion, with total assets under management (AUM) growing to $559 billion, both setting new records [3][14]. - By December 2025, global gold ETFs experienced net inflows for seven consecutive months, with approximately $10 billion flowing in during December alone [4][15]. Group 3: Price Predictions - Predictions for gold prices in 2026 vary among institutions: Jefferies Group forecasts $6600 per ounce, UBS at $5400, Goldman Sachs at $4900, and Morgan Stanley at $4800 [4][15]. Group 4: Domestic Gold Jewelry Prices - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also been on the rise, with prices for 24K gold jewelry surpassing 1500 RMB per gram, reaching 1506 RMB per gram on January 21 [5][15]. - Various brands reported similar price increases, with prices for gold jewelry from Chow Sang Sang at 1495 RMB per gram, up 41 RMB from the previous day [7][17].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a significant surge, with prices approaching the $5000 per ounce mark, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets and geopolitical tensions affecting market confidence in the US dollar [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - The London gold spot price has increased by $267 per ounce over three trading days, with a weekly increase of over 5.7% [1]. - As of January 21, the London gold price reached a high of $4888.17 per ounce, nearing the $5000 threshold [1]. - COMEX gold futures reported a price of $4869 per ounce, with a single-day increase of $100, marking a rise of over 2% [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - There is a growing bullish sentiment in the precious metals market, although there are warnings of increased short-term correction risks due to overbought conditions [3]. - Personal investor sentiment is divided, with some eager to increase their positions in anticipation of reaching $5000, while others are cautious and considering risk management strategies [4]. - The recent surge in gold ETF holdings indicates increased interest, with the largest domestic gold ETF surpassing 100.76 billion yuan in assets [4]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Analysts suggest that while the long-term trend for gold remains bullish, short-term corrections are likely, especially if the US dollar index rebounds or global risk appetite improves [3]. - Regulatory measures have been implemented to manage volatility in gold and silver futures, reflecting concerns over speculative trading and market stability [5]. - Investors are advised to adopt a rational approach to gold price fluctuations, with recommendations for dollar-cost averaging in gold ETFs and cautious entry strategies for physical gold purchases [5].

Group 1 - The international gold market has experienced an unexpected strong rally since the beginning of 2026, with gold prices rising from $4,340 per ounce to a historical peak of $4,891.1 per ounce, marking a cumulative increase of 12.7% in less than 20 days [1] - Domestic gold futures also surged, with the main contract price rising by 4.61% to surpass 1,100 yuan per gram [1] - Gold stocks have seen a significant increase, with over ten gold stocks, including Zhaojin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, hitting the daily limit [2] Group 2 - The gold ETF (159562) rose by 5.73% today, with a cumulative increase of 25.82% over the past 13 trading days, reaching a new historical high [3] - The market is increasingly optimistic about gold prices reaching the previously considered unattainable $5,000 per ounce mark, as institutions frequently adjust their target prices upward [5] Group 3 - The surge in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including geopolitical risks, monetary policy, central bank allocations, and the reconstruction of dollar credit [7] - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. trade actions against Denmark and other countries, have led to a significant influx of safe-haven investments into gold [8] - Denmark's announcement to sell approximately $1 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds marks a significant move in the context of escalating geopolitical tensions [9] Group 4 - Historical data shows a significant upward trend in gold prices during Trump's presidency, with prices rising from approximately $1,204 per ounce at his inauguration in January 2017 to about $4,880 per ounce by January 2026, reflecting a cumulative increase of 78.75% [10] - The acceleration of U.S. debt has raised concerns about the potential risks associated with dollar reserves, prompting central banks globally to increase their gold holdings [12] Group 5 - The global demand for gold bars and coins increased by 18% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 1,250 tons, the highest since 2011 [17] - China's gold market ETF saw a net inflow of approximately 118 billion yuan (about 190 tons) in 2025, accounting for 26.6% of global gold ETF inflows [18] Group 6 - Institutions are increasingly optimistic about the future performance of gold, with several major financial institutions raising their target prices for gold significantly [21] - Goldman Sachs has raised its end-of-2026 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, citing structural central bank purchases and expected interest rate cuts as key support factors [21] - Domestic institutions also share a positive outlook, with predictions for gold prices to reach around $4,950 to $5,000 per ounce [22]

摘要周三(1月21日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4855.30一线上方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4862.84美元/ 盎司，上涨2.10%，最高触及4887.82美元/盎司，最低下探4756.81美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏 向看涨走势。 与此同时，ABC Refinery机构市场全球主管尼古拉斯-弗拉佩尔表示，我认为突破金价4800美元进一步 印证了这一观点，即人们不想在5000美元之前卖出黄金。这是支持黄金的多个传统因素共同作用的结 果，包括债务上升、美元疲软和地缘政治不确定性。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 技术面已发出初步警示信号：4小时收出带长上影线的小阳，表明在连续暴涨后，高位抛压开始显现， 市场需要技术性回调来消化极端超买状态。当前1小时级别斐波那契第一支撑位于4804附近，此处与整 数关口形成共振，可作为激进者博弈技术性反弹的参考点位。 继续关注4830的支撑位。如果该水平守住，则可能出现短期买入机会，目标价位在4880附近。 密切关注4880-4890附近的卖出机会。今晚美盘时段，黄金很可能再次出现大幅回调，目标价位在4790 附近。 周三(1月21日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4855.30一 ...

就在今天，国际现货黄金价格已经突破4870美元/盎司，新年以来涨幅超过12%。 黄金，仍在不断刷新我们的认知。 新年以来这一波金价创新高，主要原因依然是地缘政治因素，格陵兰岛的局势越来越热闹，美国甚至威 胁对欧洲发动关税战。这一系列不确定性因素，导致投资者转向黄金这类传统避险资产以求保值。最典 型的例子是，波兰央行已经宣布，将再购买150吨黄金（价值约230亿美元）强化国家储备。这就是短期 金价为何大涨的原因。 再回顾这一轮黄金超级大牛市，起点是2022年，因俄乌冲突而起，当时金价才1700美元/盎司。转眼 间，快四年时间过去了。这四年时间，整个世界似乎始终不太平，各种不确定性因素刺激金价不断上 涨。从笔者内心来讲，我厌恶看到战争，希望世界和平，喜欢看到科技创新带领人类不断迈向文明的新 高度。或许，正是这种认知上的局限性，导致笔者终究是看错了金价。 看错了就要认，但现在的问题是，金价不断创新高，还能继续追吗？ 对于这个问题，我依然坚持此前的判断，短期不追高，调整中可做中长期资产布局。很多人都是买涨不 买跌，看到金价大涨的时候才去追，而调整的时候往往无人问津，结果经常买到阶段高点。不过，如果 我们将黄金投资看作 ...

港股晨报 2026 年 1 月 21 日 国投证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国投证券国际视点：特朗普关税威胁升级，美欧关系进 入敏感期，黄金白银价格创新高 昨日，港股三大指数持续下探。截至收盘，恒生指数跌 0.29%，国企指数跌 0.43%， 恒生科技指数跌 1.16%。大市成交金额 2,377.66 亿元，主板总卖空金额 329.52 亿元，占可卖空股票总成交额比率为 15.68%。南向资金北水方面，港股通交易 净流入 36.63 亿港元。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入最多的是腾讯 700.HK、美团 3690.HK、小米集团 1810.HK；净卖出最多的是中芯国际 981.HK、 中国移动 941.HK、中海油 883.HK。 板块方面，大消费板块飘红。其中，沪上阿姨 2589.HK 涨 9.87%，中烟香港 6055.HK 涨 6.04%，中国波顿 3318.HK 涨 4.71%，蜜雪集团 2097.HK 涨 3.64%， 中国南方航空 1055.HK 涨 4.57%，中国国航 753.HK 涨 3.91%，中国东方航空 670.HK 涨 3.68%，华润啤酒 291.HK 涨 3. ...

1月21日，国际黄金期货价格和现货价格双双再创新高，突破每盎司4800美元整数大关。国际金价带动 国内相关资产表现，1月21日早盘黄金主题ETF集体活跃。其中部分黄金股ETF截至10点7分涨幅已达 4%。 多位受访人士表示，黄金由于其地缘敏感性、对冲便利性等原因，在当下宽松预期出现阶段性回摆的过 程中仍有望得到其他因素的交替支持，看好黄金长期走势。 黄金主题ETF轮番表现 具体来看，1月21日早盘，现货黄金出现直线拉升，盘中首次突破每盎司4800美元整数关口，再创历史 新高。截至发稿，盘中最高已触及4844.24美元/盎司。COMEX黄金期货同样快速上涨，不仅突破4800 美元/盎司整数关口，截至发稿，盘中最高触及4847.7美元/盎司。 受此影响，国内黄金主题ETF在1月21日开盘就表现强势。 其中，多只黄金股ETF跳空高开，部分黄金股ETF截至10点7分涨幅突破4%。而这是相关ETF前期已走 出较长上涨趋势后再一次冲高。以黄金股票ETF（159321.OF）为例，Wind数据显示，截至1月20日，其 近一年涨幅高达110.8%，2026年开年以来涨幅也已高达18.15%。 商品型黄金ETF方面，相关产品表 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the articles highlights a significant surge in gold prices leading to an unprecedented demand for bank safe deposit boxes, creating a supply-demand imbalance in the market [1][2][3] - As of January 21, spot gold prices exceeded $4,850 per ounce, marking a new high with a daily increase of 1.82%, while domestic gold jewelry prices remained above 1,440 yuan per gram [1] - The demand for safe deposit boxes has surged, with reports indicating that over 8,000 boxes at the Shenzhen branch of China Merchants Bank are fully rented, resulting in a waiting list of 500-600 people, with an estimated wait time of 5-6 years for new customers [2][3] Group 2 - The rental market for safe deposit boxes is experiencing structural tension, with many banks in major cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou reporting all box types fully rented and long waiting lists for new customers [2][3] - The increase in demand for safe deposit boxes is closely linked to the rising prices of gold and silver, with silver prices increasing by 147.79% and gold prices by 64.56% since 2025 [3][4] - The shift in consumer behavior is evident, as investment demand for gold has surpassed jewelry consumption for the first time, with gold bar and coin consumption reaching 352.116 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.55% [3][4] Group 3 - The supply side of the safe deposit box market is constrained, as banks view this service as low-profit and high-cost, leading to a reduction in the number of available boxes [6][7] - Many banks have been reducing their branch networks and box sizes, with some even discontinuing the service altogether, exacerbating the supply shortage [6][7] - The high renewal rates and slow turnover of rented boxes further intensify the supply-demand imbalance, as customers can renew indefinitely as long as they pay the rent [6][7] Group 4 - There is a notable divergence between physical demand for gold and financial investment behaviors, with central banks increasing their gold reserves while short-term speculative investments are decreasing [8] - The global central banks' strategic demand for gold is becoming a core support for prices, with Poland planning to increase its gold holdings by 150 tons and China continuing to add to its reserves [8] - This shift indicates a transition in the gold market from being driven by speculative investments to a focus on strategic asset allocation by central banks [8]