更长远的问题是，投资者及社会各界亦正持续讨论，各国政府长远能否以法定货币应付庞大无资金支持 的开支承诺。韩艾飞称，今年市场更关注传统上被视为黄金"避险"替代品的资产，例如美元及长期政府 债券。2025年至今，美元转弱及实际利率下跌(即持有黄金的机会成本下降)，为金价提供额外动力。去 美元化的讨论预计将持续。 韩艾飞认为，金价上升部分是在追回过去的滞后表现，以发挥其保障购买力的作用。推动本次升势的因 素包括央行需求、零售需求，以及近期实物黄金ETF 的资金流入。市场忧虑通胀削弱货币购买力、政 府财政状况，以及地缘政治风险及关税不明朗因素，进一步支持金价上升动力。 智通财经APP获悉，贝莱德行业及主题股票全球投资主管韩艾飞(Evy Hambro)表示，尽管金矿股股价上 升，但长期估值尚未充份反映金价升势，其长期价格假设仍落后于黄金现货价格，更落后于远期曲线。 贝莱德预期，金矿公司将检视资本配置计划，期望管理层能够大幅提高派息，让股东最终能从金价上升 中受惠。该行认为，金矿股涨势可以持续，因为市场估值所用的金价假设，仍远低于金矿公司目前实际 享有的金价。 ...

更重要的是，即将到来的"十一"长假为市场增添了不确定性。从历史数据来看，长假过后金银价格走势并无明显规 律，近12年里，黄金节后首日涨跌概率接近五五开。因此，机构普遍建议投资者在节前调整持仓策略。 "考虑到假期较长，期间海外市场仍将正常交易，任何突发消息都可能引发节后开盘的跳空行情，持仓风险较 大。"东证期货宏观策略首席分析师徐颖也提醒市场，节前预计存在减仓需求，需注意回调风险。 对于此轮贵金属的飙升行情，国信期货首席分析师顾冯达分析认为，核心驱动力来自三个方面：首先，美联储已开 启降息周期，市场预期年内还将有两次降息，这降低了持有无息资产黄金的机会成本；其次，中东等地缘政治冲突 持续发酵，不断推升全球市场的避险需求；此外，全球央行持续的购金行为以及白银在工业领域的旺盛应用前景， 也为贵金属价格提供了坚实的基本面支撑。 世界黄金协会的最新数据印证了这一点。数据显示，尽管金价高企，全球各经济体央行在7月份仍维持净购金态势。 中国央行更是连续10个月增持黄金储备，截至8月底，储备量已达2098.43吨。同时，在滞胀担忧下，欧美投资者正 加速配置黄金，全球实物黄金ETF已连续三个月实现资金净流入，8月流入额高达55 ...

世界黄金协会数据显示，2025年7月，尽管金价居高不下，各经济体央行仍继续维持净购金态势，全球 官方黄金储备净增10吨，与此前数月相比节奏有所放缓。截至8月底，中国央行黄金储备量为2098.43 吨，环比增加1.7吨，连续10个月扩大黄金储备。 此外，在滞胀担忧下，欧美投资者正在重新加大对于黄金的配置。据世界黄金协会统计，8月全球实物 黄金ETF流入55亿美元，连续三个月实现流入。北美与欧洲地区基金成为增长主导力量，其中北美地区 8月流入约41亿美元，亚洲地区需求由正转负，流出4.95亿美元。 东证期货宏观策略首席分析师徐颖表示，金价震荡收涨再创新高后有所回落，市场做多热情较高，主要 还是受到美联储降息预期强化的带动，叠加特朗普宣布要对俄罗斯加大关税制裁引发一定的避险情绪。 美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲话强调就业和通胀双重风险，就业市场数据走弱后美联储打开继续降息空间， 但市场对此也有较为充分的定价。徐颖还表示，国内"十一"假期前预计存在减仓，注意回调风险。 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹表示，贵金属中长线仍然偏多，短线来看，伦敦金银日线涨 势放缓，其中白银收高位十字形，预示短期调整压力加大。伦敦金关注37 ...

证券时报记者 沈宁 8月底以来，在地缘政治风险升温与美联储降息预期的双重推动下，黄金、白银期货价格开启持续 上涨行情，金价不断刷新历史纪录，银价也逐步逼近历史高点。眼下国内"十一"国庆假期临近，尽管市 场对于贵金属中长期走势的乐观预期未改，但已有不少机构开始提示长假持仓风险。 截至9月24日下午收盘，上期所黄金期货主力AU2512合约收报860元/克，当日上涨1.03%，收盘价 再创历史新高。白银期货主力AG2513合约收报10397元/千克，当日上涨0.83%，期价同样创出上市以来 新高。海外贵金属市场延续较强势头，截至北京时间下午17：30，伦敦现货金报价在3768美元/盎司附 近。 "美联储降息周期已然开启，且市场预期年内还将继续降息两次，这为金银价格构成了核心驱动 力。地缘局势方面，中东冲突持续推升全球避险情绪。此外，全球央行的持续购金需求以及白银旺盛的 工业应用前景，共同为贵金属市场提供了价格支撑。" 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，"不过，贵金 属价格在连续冲高后本身存在技术性回调压力。近期多位美联储官员释放鹰派信号，若鹰派言论或风险 事件引发多头获利了结，上述因素形成共振，可能加剧短期波动。" 谈 ...

Group 1 - The World Gold Council reported that global physical gold ETF inflows reached $5.5 billion in August, marking the third consecutive month of inflows and a year-to-date total of approximately $47 billion, the second highest on record, only behind the peak in 2020 [1] - North America and Europe were the dominant regions for ETF inflows, with North America seeing inflows of about $4.1 billion in August, also marking the third consecutive month of net inflows, and a significant acceleration in inflow momentum [5][1] - European funds recorded inflows of approximately $1.9 billion in August, maintaining a four-month streak of inflows, with the UK market leading in fund inflows, while Switzerland and Germany also experienced notable growth [8][1] Group 2 - The total assets under management (AUM) increased significantly, reaching a new record high at the end of the month, with total holdings growing by 53 tons, the highest level since July 2022, but still 6% lower than the record of 3,929 tons set in November 2020 [3] - In contrast, Asia experienced outflows of approximately $1 million in August, with demand shifting from positive to negative, primarily due to rising risk appetite among investors, as evidenced by the over 10% increase in the CSI 300 index in August [9][10] - The Indian market, however, saw net inflows for the fourth consecutive month, benefiting from a resurgence in safe-haven demand, while other regions experienced mild outflows, with Australia showing slight inflows that did not offset outflows in the South African market [10]

Group 1: Stock Market Insights - The technology sector in the Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, surpassing 800 billion HKD in August, indicating a complex capital market environment [1] - Emerging technology companies are becoming the backbone of the stock market, with a quantum computing firm experiencing a 127% increase in share price and a market cap exceeding 200 billion HKD due to breakthroughs in room-temperature superconducting chips [1] - Traditional real estate stocks are under pressure due to new REITs regulations, while space resource development stocks are experiencing soaring valuations, highlighting a clear market divergence [1] Group 2: Bond Market Developments - Following the Federal Reserve's pause in interest rate hikes, the bond market is entering a favorable allocation period, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilizing between 3.2% and 3.5% [2] - Chinese offshore bond indices have shown a year-to-date return of 5.8%, outperforming similar products, while green infrastructure bonds are offering a yield premium of 120 basis points over government bonds [2] - High-yield bonds present hidden opportunities, with a Southeast Asian data center project bond yielding 8.9% and a hydrogen industry park bond receiving an upgraded outlook from international rating agencies [2] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Global central banks are increasing their gold holdings, with gold prices maintaining high levels above 2500 USD per ounce, and physical gold ETF holdings reaching record highs [3] - The derivatives market is experiencing increased volatility in gold prices, while new gold mines are being discovered in West Africa, and nano-gold plating technology has achieved production breakthroughs [3] - Digital gold assets are evolving, with a gold-backed stablecoin achieving a weekly trading volume exceeding 1 billion USD and a gold NFT product completing its first round of financing [3]

Group 1 - International gold prices showed little change on August 15, with spot gold rising by 0.01% to $3,335.28 per ounce, and a weekly decline of 1.86% [1] - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.04% to $3,381.70 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 3.14% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices in China varied, with several brands reducing their prices by 6 yuan per gram to 1,002 yuan per gram, while others like Chow Sang Sang increased by 2 yuan to 1,005 yuan per gram [1][2] Group 2 - The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin has influenced gold prices, with a nearly 2% drop in spot gold prior to the meeting as investors anticipated positive outcomes [3][4] - Analysts suggest that if the meeting results in significant progress, the safe-haven appeal of gold may diminish, while failure to achieve substantial outcomes could lead to a rise in gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - The World Gold Council reported that in July, global physical gold ETF inflows reached $3.2 billion, continuing a trend of inflows driven by international markets, with total assets under management increasing to $386 billion [4]

Economic Performance - In July, the national economy maintained a steady growth trend, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month [2] - The People's Bank of China reported that the monetary policy was moderately loose in the first half of the year, with the RMB exchange rate remaining stable at a reasonable level [2] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange indicated that cross-border capital flows were generally stable in July, with a 33% month-on-month increase in net inflow from goods trade [2] Real Estate Market - In July, the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 cities showed a month-on-month decline, with the overall year-on-year decline narrowing [2] - The number of cities with rising new home prices decreased to 6, with Shanghai and Urumqi leading with a 0.3% increase [2] Financial Sector Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) reported accounting issues in some listed companies regarding revenue and financial disclosures, indicating a need for enhanced regulatory measures [3] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange took regulatory actions against 154 instances of abnormal trading behavior, focusing on stocks with significant price fluctuations [4] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange implemented self-regulatory measures for 159 instances of abnormal trading, with a focus on the stock "Guangsheng Tang" [5] Corporate Highlights - Shengyi Technology reported a 91% year-on-year increase in revenue to 3.769 billion yuan and a 452% increase in net profit to 531 million yuan [5] - Dongfang Fortune reported a revenue of 6.856 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.65%, and a net profit of 5.567 billion yuan, up 37.27% [6] - China Shenhua plans to acquire assets from the National Energy Group and West Energy, with stock resuming trading on August 18 [7] Policy and Market Outlook - Recent policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption are expected to continue to have a positive impact, with suggestions for increased macroeconomic policy efforts in the second half of the year [8]

智通财经APP获悉，世界黄金协会发布的数据显示，7月，全球实物黄金ETF流入32亿美元，延续流入态势。在持续流入与金价上涨的双重推动下资产管 理总规模(AUM)增至3860亿美元再创月末记录新高；总持仓增长23吨至3639，继续保持自2022年8月以来的最高月末水平。 北美地区 7月 流入约 推动年初至今总流入量达 再创月末记录新高 总持仓增长23吨 至山) / 时 继续保持自2022年8月以来的 最高月末水平 ×域概览 北美与欧洲地区基金 成为主导力量 7月 流入约 已连续三个月保持流入态势 英国市场基金流入量再度领跑 瑞士与法国市场基金同样录得显著流入 而德国基金流出量最大 亚洲地区 -2 1-22 11 亿美元(S) 有望实现历史第二强劲的年度表现 尽管北美地区黄金ETF仍保持正向需求 但月环比增速有所放缓 我们认为原因主要在于: 市场预期的美联储降息时间点持续推后 导致美元短期反弹目利率上升 随着关税政策对 经济增长和/或通胀的实际影响逐步显现 北美地区黄金ETF流入有望持续获得支撑 欧洲地区 7月 仅小幅流入约 EXHII 万美元($ 9,500元美元◎ 主要源自日本市场的贡献 黄金交易量 八幅增加 ...

Group 1: Global Gold ETF Market Overview - The World Gold Council's latest report indicates that global gold ETF assets under management surged by $38 billion in the first half of 2025, a 41% increase from the beginning of the year, reaching a total of $383 billion [1] - Total gold holdings increased by 397 tons to 3,616 tons, with average daily trading volume exceeding $329 billion, setting a historical record for the half-year period [1] - North America emerged as the primary source of inflows into gold ETFs, with a net inflow of $21 billion, accounting for 55% of the global increase [1] Group 2: Regional Insights and Influencing Factors - The inflow of funds into North America was primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and credit risks associated with U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - In Asia, the demand for gold allocation was closely linked to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the trend of de-dollarization globally, with net inflows of $11 billion [1] - The Chinese market saw its gold ETF scale surpass 100 billion RMB in Q1 2025, with an annual growth exceeding 90 billion RMB, and several products doubling their shares [1] Group 3: Price Dynamics and Investment Trends - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with an expanding U.S. fiscal deficit and declining real interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds, significantly enhanced gold's monetary attributes [1] - COMEX gold prices briefly exceeded $3,450 per ounce, with a more than 27% increase in the first half of 2025, driving up the net asset value of gold ETFs [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy shift, including a 100 basis point rate cut expected for the year, historically correlates with an average gold price increase of 22% during such cycles, further stimulating investor demand for gold ETFs [2] Group 4: Central Bank Purchases and Product Performance - From January to May 2025, global central banks net purchased 520 tons of gold, with China, India, and Turkey being the top three buyers [2] - The demand from central banks and ETF inflows created a resonance effect, collectively boosting gold demand [2] - There was a performance divergence between physical gold ETFs and gold stock ETFs, with domestic spot gold price-tracking ETFs achieving over 40% returns in the past year [2] Group 5: Market Volatility and Future Outlook - Despite the surge in gold ETF sizes, analysts caution about short-term volatility risks, as international gold prices fluctuated significantly, reaching a high of $3,500 per ounce before dropping to around $3,281 [3] - Factors influencing gold prices include global economic conditions, monetary policies, and geopolitical events, necessitating dynamic portfolio adjustments by investors [3] - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests that the Middle East situation will remain a key driver for short-term gold prices, while U.S. Treasury credit issues and ongoing central bank purchases will provide medium-term support [3]