智通财经4月23日电，美国副总统万斯称，在和印度的贸易谈判中全面取得进展。 ...

美国副总统万斯：我们在贸易谈判中全面取得进展。 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: April 23, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The CBOT soybeans are not likely to decline significantly due to potential trade negotiations where some countries may increase purchases of US soybeans, and the expected reduction in the new - season US soybean planting area to 83.5 million acres year - on - year [6]. - The domestic soybean meal market is in a state of tight current supply but wide future supply expectations. In the short term, supply is tight with low import volume in March and slow customs clearance in April, and low inventory levels. However, in the long run, supply will be sufficient as Brazilian soybeans arrive in large quantities and state - reserve auctions continue [6]. - For futures, it is recommended to be long - biased in the 09 and subsequent far - month contracts, but one may need to endure the greatest supply pressure in the second quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: - For the Soybean Meal 2505 contract, the previous settlement price was 2910, the closing price was 2988, up 78 or 2.68% with a trading volume of 393,367 and an open interest of 337,200, a decrease of 53,643 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2507 contract, the previous settlement price was 2886, the closing price was 2910, up 24 or 0.83% with a trading volume of 202,486 and an open interest of 503,784, an increase of 11,665 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3043, the closing price was 3054, up 11 or 0.36% with a trading volume of 1,583,221 and an open interest of 2,416,736, an increase of 17,181 [6]. - **External Market**: The US soybeans 05 contract on the external market was oscillating, with the main force at 1050 cents. After a rebound after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, it entered a narrow - range oscillation last week due to ongoing trade negotiations [6]. - **Domestic Market**: Domestic soybean meal is in a state of tight current supply but wide future supply expectations. In March, the imported soybean volume was only 3.5 million tons, and customs clearance in April was slow. The soybean meal inventory reached a multi - year low, reflected in the price. However, supply will be sufficient in the future as Brazilian soybeans arrive and state - reserve auctions continue [6]. - **Futures Suggestion**: It is recommended to be long - biased in the 09 and subsequent far - month contracts, but one may need to endure the greatest supply pressure in the second quarter [6]. 3.2 Industry News - **USDA Reports**: As of the week ending April 20, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 8%, higher than the market expectation of 7%, 2% in the previous week, 7% in the same period last year, and the five - year average of 5%. As of the week ending April 17, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 550,924 tons, within the market forecast range of 400,000 - 750,000 tons [8][9]. - **Argentina's Situation**: Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated to be 17.9 million hectares, a 0.6% decrease from the previous month's estimate but a 7.8% increase from the previous year. The 2024/25 soybean production is estimated to be 49 million tons, a 1.7% increase from the 2023/24 season [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 05 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The United States is preparing to negotiate with the United Kingdom to lower tariffs on various American goods, specifically aiming to reduce the UK’s automobile tariff from 10% to 2.5% [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiation Goals - The U.S. intends to encourage the UK to lower tariffs on multiple American products and reduce non-tariff barriers [1] - A specific target is to decrease the UK’s automobile tariff from 10% to 2.5% [1] - The U.S. will also push for the UK to ease import regulations on American beef and other agricultural products [1] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The U.S. seeks modifications to the rules regarding the origin of goods traded between the two countries [1] - A draft document outlining the U.S.-UK trade negotiation objectives has been circulated to stakeholders by the Trump administration [1]

据华尔街日报：消息人士透露，美国正为与英国的贸易谈判制定相关条款，美国将力争促使英国将汽车 关税从10%削减至2.5%，并将敦促英国放宽农业进口法规。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that the downward trajectory of inflation in the Eurozone is evident [1] - The tariffs initiated by US President Trump have a negative impact on economic growth [1] - Europe should reduce international trade barriers [1] - There is potential for trade negotiations between the US and the EU [1]

Group 1: Economic Trends and Market Reactions - The euro has surged nearly 10% against the dollar, surpassing the 1.15 mark on April 22, driven by Germany's fiscal expansion [1] - The simultaneous decline of U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar index indicates a broad willingness among investors to sell U.S. assets, reflecting a systemic rejection of U.S. economic strategies [1][3] - The U.S. stock market has experienced significant declines, with major indices dropping over 2% and the dollar index falling more than 10% from its mid-January peak [4] Group 2: Investment Shifts and Opportunities - Increased fiscal spending in Germany is expected to benefit European markets, particularly in value sectors, with European bank stocks outperforming U.S. tech giants since 2022 [2] - There is a growing interest in European bonds as U.S. Treasury bonds are being sold off, with expectations of multiple rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) [2][6] - The strong performance of European assets is attributed to Germany's historic fiscal reforms and increased defense spending, which have boosted market confidence [5][6] Group 3: Central Bank Policies and Currency Dynamics - The ECB's recent rate cut to 2.25% reflects its commitment to support economic activity in the eurozone, with a high probability of further cuts in the near future [6][7] - Despite the typical negative impact of rate cuts on the euro, the market seems to have absorbed this effect, leading to a resilient euro against the dollar [7] - The potential for a 5% CPI in the U.S. by 2025 due to increased tariffs raises concerns about consumer and business confidence, further influencing investment decisions [4][8] Group 4: Trade Negotiations and Structural Challenges - Ongoing trade negotiations and structural issues within Europe pose significant uncertainties for the market, with varying attitudes towards U.S. trade policies among different countries [8][9] - The long and complex nature of trade agreements suggests that the current period of uncertainty may not be resolved quickly, impacting market stability [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid shift in the U.S. stance on tariffs against China, moving from extreme pressure to seeking negotiations, raising questions about the underlying motives and the future of the trade war [1][10]. Tariff Motivations - The U.S. has imposed tariffs as a means to reduce a trade deficit projected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2024, viewing it as a loss to the U.S. economy [3]. - The potential revenue from "reciprocal tariffs" could amount to approximately $500 billion, which would help alleviate the federal government's debt burden [3]. - Long-term strategic goals include promoting the return of manufacturing to the U.S. and weakening competitors, although the effectiveness of these goals remains uncertain [4]. Trade Relations and Economic Impact - In 2024, China is expected to export around $480 billion to the U.S. while importing about $140 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of approximately $330 billion for China [6]. - The imposition of tariffs has led to a "decoupling" of trade, significantly affecting both countries' economies, with the U.S. facing supply shortages and rising prices [7][8]. Consequences of Decoupling - The "decoupling" model has resulted in a significant reduction in U.S. imports from China, particularly in high-tech and resource products, leading to increased reliance on other countries like Canada for energy [7]. - The anticipated loss of tax revenue from tariffs due to reduced trade could constrain U.S. government finances, impacting its ability to support farmers and manage debt [8]. - The U.S. market is likely to experience supply shocks and inflation, with consumer goods prices expected to rise due to disrupted supply chains [8]. Negotiation Dynamics - The article suggests that the U.S. is eager to enter negotiations with China to address trade imbalances, particularly in energy and agricultural products [12][13]. - The negotiation process is expected to be complex and fraught with challenges, as past behaviors of the U.S. government indicate a tendency to revert to tariff increases during discussions [15]. - The U.S. aims to maximize its interests during negotiations, which may include unreasonable demands, while China is prepared to respond firmly and maintain its principles [18][19]. Economic Outlook - The article predicts that the U.S. economy may face stagnation and inflation due to the impacts of tariffs and the decoupling model, with potential recession risks in the latter half of the year [9][16]. - In contrast, China is expected to maintain stable growth despite facing some overcapacity and deflationary pressures, leveraging its strong manufacturing base and domestic market potential [16][17].

越南总理：与美国的贸易谈判不应损害其他市场 金十数据4月22日讯，越南政府网站援引越南总理范明政的讲话称，政府贸易谈判团队为即将与美国进 行的关税谈判做好"充分准备"，并确保谈判"不会对其他协议或市场产生负面影响"。 ...

越南总理：和美国的贸易谈判不应影响其他市场。 ...