Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid shift in the U.S. stance on tariffs against China, moving from extreme pressure to seeking negotiations, raising questions about the underlying motives and the future of the trade war [1][10]. Tariff Motivations - The U.S. has imposed tariffs as a means to reduce a trade deficit projected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2024, viewing it as a loss to the U.S. economy [3]. - The potential revenue from "reciprocal tariffs" could amount to approximately $500 billion, which would help alleviate the federal government's debt burden [3]. - Long-term strategic goals include promoting the return of manufacturing to the U.S. and weakening competitors, although the effectiveness of these goals remains uncertain [4]. Trade Relations and Economic Impact - In 2024, China is expected to export around $480 billion to the U.S. while importing about $140 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of approximately $330 billion for China [6]. - The imposition of tariffs has led to a "decoupling" of trade, significantly affecting both countries' economies, with the U.S. facing supply shortages and rising prices [7][8]. Consequences of Decoupling - The "decoupling" model has resulted in a significant reduction in U.S. imports from China, particularly in high-tech and resource products, leading to increased reliance on other countries like Canada for energy [7]. - The anticipated loss of tax revenue from tariffs due to reduced trade could constrain U.S. government finances, impacting its ability to support farmers and manage debt [8]. - The U.S. market is likely to experience supply shocks and inflation, with consumer goods prices expected to rise due to disrupted supply chains [8]. Negotiation Dynamics - The article suggests that the U.S. is eager to enter negotiations with China to address trade imbalances, particularly in energy and agricultural products [12][13]. - The negotiation process is expected to be complex and fraught with challenges, as past behaviors of the U.S. government indicate a tendency to revert to tariff increases during discussions [15]. - The U.S. aims to maximize its interests during negotiations, which may include unreasonable demands, while China is prepared to respond firmly and maintain its principles [18][19]. Economic Outlook - The article predicts that the U.S. economy may face stagnation and inflation due to the impacts of tariffs and the decoupling model, with potential recession risks in the latter half of the year [9][16]. - In contrast, China is expected to maintain stable growth despite facing some overcapacity and deflationary pressures, leveraging its strong manufacturing base and domestic market potential [16][17].

越南总理：与美国的贸易谈判不应损害其他市场 金十数据4月22日讯，越南政府网站援引越南总理范明政的讲话称，政府贸易谈判团队为即将与美国进 行的关税谈判做好"充分准备"，并确保谈判"不会对其他协议或市场产生负面影响"。 ...

越南总理：和美国的贸易谈判不应影响其他市场。 ...

金十数据4月21日讯，据福克斯新闻，在复活节后的一周，特朗普执政的第14周，他的主要工作是贸易 谈判。周一，特朗普内阁的家庭、孩子和成员将前往白宫南草坪，届时第一夫人梅拉尼娅将主持一年一 度的复活节滚彩蛋活动。之后，特朗普政府预计将于本周在华盛顿会见韩国官员，因韩国被征收25%的 对等关税，韩国希望与特朗普达成关税协议。美国财长贝森特此前称："我们首先与15个最大的经济体 开展工作……下周韩国也将加入。我相信印度也在讨论。这一切进展非常迅速。"特朗普上周签署了一 项行政命令，旨在通过优先考虑商业捕捞，同时减少束缚渔网的繁杂法规，支持美国渔业。特朗普预告 称，本周他的办公桌上将出现一项专门针对缅因州龙虾业的行政命令。在特朗普的第一任期中，他取消 了奥巴马时代禁止捕虾人在某些地区捕捞的规定。特朗普上周称："上次我在缅因州做到了这一点，而 他们（拜登政府）取消了它。这就是为什么我们必须长期担任总统。" 特朗普本周日程：办庆祝活动、忙贸易谈判、支持龙虾行业 ...

以下文章来源于智通财经APP ，作者智通编选 智通财经APP . 智通财经APP，连线全球资本市场。内容合作/内容举报请联系李先生： Tel: +86-15121009144 Email:zhitongcolumn@163.com 点击蓝字，关注我们 编者按： 美银邀请了科文顿・柏灵律师事务所(Covington & Burling)的高级顾问克里斯托弗・亚当斯，共同探讨 美国近期全球关税计划的影响。 美银提示，本文中任何第三方发言者的观点并不代表、也不应被理解为代表美银全球研究部门的观点。 亚当斯曾担任美国财政部中国事务高级协调员，负责协调美国政府内部的对华政策问题，领导与中国在 广泛的贸易和投资问题上的谈判，管理奥巴马和特朗普政府时期最高层级的美中经济政策对话。读者请 留意， 本文是从美国立场的视角来看谈判，从中国视角则是另外一种情况。 一、自 4 月 2 日以来美国的三大转变 克里斯・亚当斯先生表示，他在美国财政部和美国贸易代表办公室(USTR)任职时注意到，官员们认为传 统的谈判方式，尤其是与中国的谈判，困难重重，且由于未能解决贸易失衡问题，进展并不显著。目前 特朗普政府在与中国及其他国家的谈判中尝试 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union is reportedly considering export restrictions on the United States if trade negotiations fail [1] Group 1 - The potential for the EU to impose export limits indicates rising tensions in transatlantic trade relations [1] - This move could have significant implications for various industries reliant on trade between the EU and the US [1]

法国财长：特朗普暂停关税表明还有谈判的空间 金十数据4月14日讯，法国财政部长隆巴德表示，特朗普决定暂停许多计划中的进口关税，这证实了美 国政府愿意与欧洲达成协议。"这证实了与特朗普政府有谈判的空间，"隆巴德在接受《法兰西西部报》 采访时表示。特朗普上周表示，他将暂停对包括欧盟在内的许多贸易伙伴的对等关税。隆巴德说："特 朗普这么快就改变立场，我感到惊喜。"他指出，关税的直接影响将是拉低美国的经济增长，推高美国 的通胀。但隆巴德说，鉴于一些关税仍然存在，现在宣布胜利还为时过早。"出于这个原因，欧洲必须 保持压力，"他说。 ...

Core Views - The recent collective rise of the A-share market indices is attributed to the temporary suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration, which has improved global market sentiment [2][8] - The market has recovered above 3200 points, indicating a potential end to the recent downward trend driven by emotional short-term selling [2][9] - Despite the positive sentiment, concerns remain regarding the substantial impact of tariffs and the overall market fundamentals, as corporate earnings have not yet fully improved [2][9] Market Overview - On Thursday, the A-share market indices continued to rebound, supported by several favorable factors including state intervention, a wave of stock buybacks by listed companies, and expectations of interest rate cuts [4][5] - The trading volume reached 16,095 billion, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,223.64 points, up 1.16%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 2.25% [5] - The precious metals sector saw significant activity, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global tariff tensions [6] Sector Performance - The precious metals and consumer sectors, including dairy, food and beverage, and retail, showed strong performance, indicating a shift towards domestic consumption as a key driver for economic recovery in 2025 [7][8] - The recent announcement by the State Taxation Administration to promote "immediate refund" services for overseas travelers has boosted the performance of duty-free and tax refund concept stocks [6][7] Future Market Outlook - Continued attention is required on trade negotiations, as successful outcomes could lead to a rebound in industries with strong export recovery expectations [9] - The report anticipates increased fiscal and monetary policy support in response to the economic goals set during the Two Sessions, which is expected to bolster market sentiment in the medium term [3][9]

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen indicated that the EU may impose taxes on large U.S. tech companies if trade negotiations with Trump fail [1] Group 1 - The potential tax on U.S. tech companies is a response to unsuccessful trade negotiations [1] - This move reflects ongoing tensions between the EU and the U.S. regarding trade policies [1] - The statement highlights the EU's willingness to take unilateral action in the tech sector if necessary [1]

美国白宫：美国总统特朗普将在贸易谈判中讨论对外援助及在各国的军事存在问题。 ...