Q&A 对等关税对农业板块的整体影响是什么？ 对等关税对农业板块的整体影响主要体现在粮价的短期冲击有限，聚焦粮食安 全和内需提振。大豆等主要农产品的贸易摩擦已经很难大幅推升粮食价格，因 为自 2018 年以来的产业链转移已显著提升应对农产品贸易冲击能力。农业板块 核心催化因素有两大主线：一是自主可控必要性进一步提升，保障粮食安全主 要抓手是种业振兴；二是在内循环重要性增强背景下，内需提振带来的畜禽产 • 中国农产品贸易应对能力显著提升，农业板块核心催化剂包括自主可控需 求驱动的种业振兴，以及内需提振带来的畜禽产品价格回暖预期，进而带 动产业链业绩反转。 • 种植链中，大豆、高粱价格小幅上涨，玉米基本面偏紧，库存消费比处于 十年低位，利好种植链业绩。种业振兴战略强化，生物育种技术储备领先 公司受益。 • 养殖链受贸易摩擦影响较小，内需提振直接拉动鸡肉、水产、猪肉价格。 美国祖代鸡引种暂停导致供给偏紧预期，餐饮需求复苏拉动鸡肉需求定价 边际好转。 • 消费链方面，常规代工短期利空，但全球布局优质产能代工利好，高端品 牌布局国货长期利多。进口宠物食品成本提升，国货龙头性价比凸显。 • 生猪供给持续增加，猪价易跌难涨 ...

风险因素：政策执行力度不及预期；自然灾害导致农产品减产；粮食价格剧烈波动。 农林牧渔｜反制关税提振农产品价格，种植链直接受益 反制关税措施之下，农业种植产业链是稀缺的、直接受益的板块。第一，本轮关税风 暴再次凸显粮食安全的极端重要性。种源自主可控，已成为保障国家粮食安全的重中 之重。种业和粮食种植板块或将再受政策强力支持。第二，农产品价格或有提振，直 接带来种业、种植公司业绩增长预期；农产品加工板块预计也将出现结构性机会。 风险因素：关税政策再次调整风险；农产品价格超预期波动风险；产业支持政策不及 预期风险。 盛夏｜中信证券 农林牧渔和食品饮料行业首席分析师 S1010516110001 农林牧渔｜聚焦粮食安全与科技创新，夯实农业强国根基 规划文件定位为未来十年中央农村工作的顶层设计文件，是中长期农业产业政策的重 要风向标。规划聚焦粮食安全与科技创新，强调筑牢农业强国的物质基础与科技根 基。粮食安全方面，强调耕地保护与产能提升双管齐下。科技创新方面，种业被定位 为农业科技创新的重中之重，将成为发展农业新质生产力的主要方向。规划为种业、 粮食种植等板块提供了中长期政策红利和政策确定性。推荐种子和粮食种植板块。另 ...

Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced significant declines, with Japan's market dropping over 7%, South Korea's over 5%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index falling over 11%. The A-share market also saw a substantial drop, with the ChiNext index down over 12% and nearly 3,000 stocks hitting the daily limit down [1][2]. Economic Factors - The "reciprocal tariffs" issue in the U.S. is still unfolding, with a 10% minimum baseline tariff already in effect and a higher tariff set to take effect soon, posing a potential disaster for the global economy [1]. - Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. economic recession, adjusting the GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 from 1% to 0.5% and increasing the recession probability for the next 12 months from 35% to 45% [1][2]. Investment Behavior - There has been a rapid sell-off by hedge funds and ETFs, with over $40 billion in stocks sold last Friday, indicating a flight of "smart money" from the market [2]. - The market's initial belief that zero tariffs would resolve the situation has proven ineffective, as U.S. trade advisors indicate that even with zero tariffs, issues such as export subsidies from Vietnam remain [2]. Sector Performance - The agricultural planting sector showed resilience, with projected imports of soybeans, corn, and wheat from the U.S. for 2024 being 22.13 million tons, 20.719 million tons, and 1.3 million tons respectively, highlighting the importance of food security [3]. - Chicken-related stocks performed actively due to the suspension of imports from two U.S. poultry companies and four others, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3]. Market Sentiment - The sentiment in the A-share market is extremely negative, exacerbated by declines in global markets, leading to increased panic selling [4]. - The performance of Apple-related stocks and AI hardware sectors has been notably poor, reflecting broader market trends [4].

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced a significant decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping 7.83% to close at 31,136.58 points, and the South Korean Composite Index falling 5.57% to 2,328.03 points, marking a new low for November 2023 [1] - The Australian S&P 200 index decreased by 3.89% to 7,369.4 points, while the New Zealand S&P 50 index fell 3.68% to 11,775.88 points. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index plummeted over 13%, falling below the 20,000-point mark, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped over 17% [1] - European markets also faced declines, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down over 5%, and major indices like Germany's DAX, France's CAC40, and Italy's FTSE MIB all dropping more than 6% [1][2] A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market saw widespread losses, with the Shanghai Composite Index plunging 7.34% to 3,096.58 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling 9.66% to 9,364.5 points. The ChiNext Index dropped 12.5% to 1,807.21 points, and the North Star 50 Index fell nearly 18% [2] - Approximately 5,300 stocks in the A-share market were in the red, with around 3,000 stocks hitting the daily limit down, indicating a severe market downturn [3] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector experienced significant declines, with stocks like Guomian Technology, Jiangbolong, and Weir Shares hitting the daily limit down [6] - The pharmaceutical sector also saw a drop of over 10%, with companies such as Boteng Co., Jincheng Pharmaceutical, and WuXi AppTec facing substantial losses [5] - Conversely, the blood products sector showed resilience, with companies like Palin Bio and Weiguang Bio hitting the daily limit up, driven by the inelastic demand for blood products and potential price increases due to tariffs on imports [8] Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions may lead to a continued period of volatility, with a focus on stable dividend strategies and sectors benefiting from domestic demand policies [11] - Emphasis is placed on identifying high-quality companies with stable earnings, particularly in sectors with strong domestic market demand [11] - The impact of tariff policies on various sectors, including agriculture and semiconductor materials, is highlighted, with recommendations to focus on sectors with strong performance certainty and low valuations [11]

Group 1 - The Guozheng Grain Industry Index (399365) increased by 0.36% as of April 7, 2025, with notable stock performances including Wanxiang Denong (600371) hitting the daily limit, Shennong Seed Industry (300189) rising by 8.08%, and Lier Chemical (002258) increasing by 8.07% [1] - The Grain ETF (159698) rose by 1.27%, with a trading volume of 23.8488 million yuan, leading among similar products and achieving a turnover rate of 12.11%, indicating active market trading [1] - Dongxing Securities highlighted that agricultural products are being used as a significant countermeasure against tariffs, with an increased focus on food security strategies, as emphasized in the No. 1 Document of 2025, which discusses "new agricultural productivity" and the promotion of biotechnology in agriculture [1] Group 2 - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Grain Industry Index (399365) include Dabeinong (002385), Longping High-Tech (000998), and Beidahuang (600598), collectively accounting for 52.74% of the index [2]

本站讯 4月1日，江西省水利厅召开全省高标准农田建设相关资金审计整改工作会商会议，贯彻水利部 和省委省政府对审计整改工作有关要求，安排部署整改后续工作。厅党组成员、副厅长许盛丰主持会议 并讲话。 会议传达了水利部审计整改会商会议精神，都昌县、广信区、吉安县、吉水县、信丰县人民政府分管负 责同志就审计问题推进情况和下步打算作了汇报，厅农水处、建管处、规计处、河湖长处相关负责同志 对整改方案和整改进展进行了逐条研究指导。 会议要求，要深入学习贯彻习近平总书记关于审计工作的重要讲话指示批示精神，把审计整改工作作为 第一政治要件来办。一要直面问题，深挖根源，以刀刃向内的勇气认清整改紧迫性。要深刻认识高标准 农田建设相关资金审计问题整改工作是事关民生水利、粮食安全的大事要事，是党中央和省委省政府高 度关注的民生大事，以整改促工作，让整改工作成效经得起各方检验。二要对标对表，立行立改，以抓 铁有痕的力度落实整改任务。要严格遵循"问题清单化、清单责任化、责任时效化"原则，做到坚决压实 责任链条、坚决强化过程监督、坚决严肃追责问责"三个坚决"。三要举一反三，系统治理，以久久为功 的韧劲筑牢水利防线。要以此次整改为契机，建立问 ...

中国社会科学院农村发展研究所研究员李国祥称："这个方案可以说它的突出亮点，一个就是系统性很强，第二个可以说方案就是各个地 方建设管理高标准农田的一个实施手册，所以说它的实用性也非常强。" 央视网消息：粮食安全是战略问题。保障国家粮食安全的根本在耕地，建设高标准农田是一个重要抓手。近日，中共中央办公厅、国务院 办公厅印发了《逐步把永久基本农田建成高标准农田实施方案》，《实施方案》有哪些目标和亮点？一起来了解。 《实施方案》提出，以田块平整、通水通路、提升地力产量效益为基本标准，合理确定不同区域、不同类型高标准农田建设标准和投入标 准。统筹开展田、土、水、路、林、电、技、管综合治理，将建设重点放在田内。 李国祥称："我们看到这一次《实施方案》对高标准农田建设的运营管护主体都做出了明确的规定。实际上我们让最基层的政府乡镇来进 行管护，各个地方实际上可能又不太一样，还要探索出自己的运营管护模式。管护当中，如果出现耕地或者高标准农田损坏，如何来追究责 任，实际上它也都有明确的规定。" 那么，高标准农田建好以后，如何实现长期的管护利用呢？对此，《实施方案》也有进一步明确。 《实施方案》优化高标准农田建设空间布局和时序安排 ...

春季关注春耕备货，宠物关注新品动向 [Table_Industry] 农业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 wangyanjun022998@gtjas.com linyidan030085@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880520100002 S0880524090001 本报告导读： 种子：玉米现货价格继续上涨，关注春耕备货。宠物：京宠展召开，看好宠物经济 蓬勃发展，关注国产品牌新品动向。饲料行业：饲料竞争再起。 投资要点： [种业： Table_Summary] 玉米现货价格继续上涨，关注春耕备货 上周玉米现货价格继续上涨，突破 2218 元/吨，延续年初以来的涨 势。2025 年在美国加征关税背景下，我国玉米粮食进口或进一步缩 减，看好 2025 年玉米粮价景气度回升。近期农业农村部发布 19 项 课题目录，包括"保障国家粮食安全的路径选择"、"粮食作物大 面积单产提升瓶颈制约与对策研究"等，体现政策对于粮食安全的 重视。转基因技术应用推动种业格局进一步改善，品种竞争力强、 技术储备领先的公司有望受益。春耕在即，建议关注种子经销商补 货情况，具备强竞争力的品种或在 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - The average price of commodity pigs has weakened, with a week-on-week decline of 0.07%, currently at 14.45 CNY/kg. The average price of piglets remained stable after three weeks of decline [8][18] - The planned slaughter volume for March is expected to increase by 2.74% month-on-month, indicating increased market supply pressure [3][27] - The U.S. has imposed tariffs on certain agricultural products, which may affect domestic prices and increase costs for downstream industries [4][32] Summary by Sections Commodity Pig Prices - The average price of commodity pigs has decreased by 0.07% week-on-week, while the average price of piglets has remained stable [8][18] - The average weight of commodity pigs at slaughter has increased, with an average of 123.61 kg, up 0.08% week-on-week [26] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The number of breeding sows has decreased slightly, with a total of 40.62 million sows reported in January, down by 160,000 from the previous month [3][27] - The planned slaughter volume for March is 11.4759 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.74% [3][27] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The average profit for self-bred pigs is 33.56 CNY/head, down by 9.52 CNY from the previous week, while the average loss for purchased piglets is 12.52 CNY/head, a decrease of 21.91 CNY [28] - The price ratio of culling sows to commodity pigs is 0.71, indicating a slight decline from the previous week [18][26] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading companies with scale and cost advantages in pig farming, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe [11][33] - In the poultry sector, consider companies with proprietary white feather chicken breeding sources [11][33]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [61] Core Insights - The report indicates that the supply pressure in the pig farming sector is evident, with a slight increase in pig prices followed by a decline due to restored supply [2][9]. - The white feather broiler market is experiencing price increases, supported by improved slaughter profits and a successful import of breeding stock from France by Yisheng [3][31]. - The 2025 Central Document No. 1 emphasizes food security and technological innovation in agriculture, highlighting the importance of enhancing grain supply capabilities and promoting agricultural technology [39][41]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - March pig slaughter is expected to increase month-on-month, but prices may remain weak due to supply pressures. As of March 7, the national average pig price was 14.45 CNY/kg, a decrease of 0.06 CNY/kg week-on-week [2][9]. - Slaughterhouse daily average slaughter volume increased to 140,700 heads, up 3.53% week-on-week, while frozen product inventory rates rose to 15.58%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points [10][24]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter increased to 127.06 kg, up 0.54 kg week-on-week, indicating a trend of rising weights alongside increased slaughter rates [14][24]. White Feather Broilers - The price of white feather broilers has continued to rise, reaching 6.59 CNY/kg as of March 7, an increase of 0.49 CNY/kg week-on-week, driven by improved market conditions and slaughter profits [3][26]. - Yisheng has successfully imported breeding stock from France, which is expected to strengthen its supply chain amid tight supply conditions for parent stock due to previous import restrictions [31][31]. Seed Industry - The 2025 Central Document emphasizes food security, mentioning "grain" 15 times and outlining measures to enhance grain production and quality [39][41]. - The document introduces the concept of "new agricultural productivity," focusing on the application of technology in agriculture, including biotechnology and artificial intelligence [41][41]. - Investment opportunities are suggested in the areas of biological breeding and smart agriculture, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [41][41].