近段时间以来，由于对AI泡沫担忧加剧，同时美联储12月降息前景存疑，由科技股主导的美国股市持 续遭遇抛售。然而，这并没有影响华尔街对股市未来走势的乐观预期，摩根士丹利与德意志银行近日相 继发表看涨观点，认为当前跌势已近尾声，并看好明年美股将持续走强，标普500指数有望再创新高。 大摩：短期弱势是布局良机 摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson表示，近期的抛售潮可能已接近尾声。该行在周一发布的报告中指 出，"短期若出现进一步回调，均为布局明年多头仓位的良机"。其策略团队看好非必需消费品、医疗保 健、金融、工业板块及小盘股。 该机构预计，标普500指数将在未来一年攀升至7800点，这一预测在华尔街机构中属于最乐观的预期之 一。这一目标意味着该指数较当前水平有约18%的上涨空间，并预示市场将从本轮回调中强势反弹。 自10月高点以来，受科技股估值高企担忧影响，标普500指数已下跌约4%。但Wilson在报告中写 道："市场内部的弱势信号表明，此次调整已接近尾声，而非刚刚开始"，同时他也提到短期不排除仍有 波动的可能。 值得注意的是，今年4月美国大范围加征关税后股市出现下跌，但Wilson当时仍坚持看涨立场，成为 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are rising ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, with Dow futures up 0.15%, S&P 500 futures up 0.33%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.61% [1] - European indices show mixed performance, with Germany's DAX up 0.49%, France's CAC40 up 0.02%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.26% [1] Oil Market - WTI crude oil is up 0.17% at $57.91 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is down 0.23% at $61.80 per barrel [2] Economic Data and Events - Investors are preparing for several important economic data releases, including US retail sales and PPI data for September, and the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for November [3] - The upcoming week will also see the release of initial jobless claims and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book [3] Federal Reserve Insights - There is a possibility of a 6:6 deadlock in the Federal Reserve's December voting, indicating increasing divisions among members regarding interest rate decisions [4] - Morgan Stanley's strategist Michael Wilson believes the recent sell-off in US stocks may be nearing an end, with a bullish outlook for the market in 2024 [4] Stock Performance and Earnings - The S&P 500 index has declined approximately 3.7% in November, with a potential liquidity crisis looming due to $150 billion being withdrawn from the market due to US Treasury settlements [5] - Nvidia's recent earnings report has not alleviated market concerns regarding a potential AI stock bubble, with debates ongoing about the sustainability of valuations in the AI sector [6] - Shipping rates for supertankers have surged to a five-year high, driven by increased demand for alternatives to sanctioned Russian oil [6] Company-Specific News - LexinFintech (LX.US) reported Q3 earnings with revenue of 3.42 billion yuan and a net profit of 675 million yuan, showing resilience amid macroeconomic challenges [7] - BHP Group (BHP.US) has announced it will no longer pursue a merger with Anglo American, marking a significant shift in its strategic direction [8] - Amazon (AMZN.US) operates over 900 data centers across more than 50 countries, highlighting the scale of its cloud services [9]

通用型DRAM的需求激增，主要归因于大型AI基础设施的投资。 OpenAI和Meta已宣布了价值数 数千亿美元的AI基础设施投资计划，同时全球主要公司和政府也正为自身的AI开发建立数据中 心。这导致DDR、GDDR和LPDDR等通用型DRAM的需求急剧上升。尽管通用型DRAM的性能不 如HBM，但对于AI推论和计算而言，它们仍然是不可或缺的。 如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来 源 ： 内容来自technews。 随着全球人工智能（AI）投资扩张的浪潮日益加剧，半导体DRAM 的短缺问题也愈发严重。这一 供需失衡已迫使市场将过去以月或单季为基础的价格谈判，重组为为期六个月或更长的长期供应合 约。由于市场普遍预期DRAM 的严重短缺将持续推动价格上涨至2026 年，需求公司正积极寻求半 年度合约，甚至市场上的协商已延伸至2027 年的供应合约，反映出确保2026 年供应量日益困难的 现状。 根据韩国媒体BusinessKorea的报导指出，DRAM在运算架构中扮演关键角色，负责临时储存数 据，以利CPU和GPU来快速处理资讯。随着ChatGPT等大型语言模型（LLM）AI的问世，GPU的 作用扩大。为 ...

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing significant volatility, driven by multiple negative sentiments that have collectively impacted market behavior [1][2] - Investors are advised to prepare for short-term fluctuations and to hold onto their positions during this period [1] - There is a prevailing sentiment that the market is influenced heavily by emotions, which are in turn affected by policy changes [2][3] Group 2 - Recent events, particularly since October, have included ongoing negotiations between the US and China, which have contributed to market fluctuations [2] - The market reacted negatively to a perceived overvaluation in the AI sector, leading to a significant correction in technology stocks [2] - The anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions is currently a major focus, with concerns about liquidity in the market [4] Group 3 - Large institutional investors are quick to react to news and policy changes, which can lead to early market adjustments based on their trading expectations [3][4] - The current geopolitical climate, including tensions involving Japan, is also influencing market sentiment, particularly in the defense sector [4] - Continuous monitoring of macroeconomic events is essential for making informed investment decisions [4]

近期，博道基金量化投资总监杨梦在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，尽管公募量化行业已取得长足进 步，但未来发展空间依然广阔。无论是因子挖掘、策略迭代，还是人工智能（AI）技术的深化应用， 都蕴藏着巨大潜力。她表示，博道基金量化团队的核心目标并非追求短期爆发力，而是致力于寻找能够 穿越不同市场周期的、可持续的超额收益来源。"均衡"是团队重要的指导思想，通过方法论与因子来源 的均衡配置，力求让投资者获得波动更小的持有体验，帮助投资者真正"拿得住、赚到钱"。 杨梦，经济学硕士。专注量化领域14年，其中4年量化研究、10年量化投资管理经验。现任博道基金量 化投资总监兼量化投资部总经理。 从AI量价到AI全流程的进化之路 博道基金对AI量化的探索起步很早，2017年就开始使用GP算法去挖掘因子，2019年，受彼时私募领域 对AI应用的启发，博道基金量化团队开始研究AI量价因子，这一前瞻性的布局在2020年得以实盘落 地，并为博道基金"指数+"产品在2020年和2021年带来了相对亮眼的业绩。 然而，量化团队并未止步于此。随着AI技术在量化领域的普及，杨梦敏锐地意识到，要想保持领先， 必须进行更深层次的变革。2023年一季度 ...

（本文原标题为 世界汽车工程师学会联合会（FISITA）终身名誉主席，清华大学教授、汽车产业与技术战略研究院（TASRI）院长赵福全：抓住"新 汽车"机遇进行战略布局） "'新汽车'是移动的空间、互联的节点、数据的载体、计算的单元、智能的终端、储/供能的装置，也是创新的载体和战略性新兴产业。未来汽车将是 继互联网时代的手机之后万物互联时代最大的'母生态'，同时也是新质生产力、新型工业化最大的抓手。"近日，在第二十届中国经济论坛平行论坛 ——"展望'十五五' 巩固车优势"现场，世界汽车工程师学会联合会（FISITA）终身名誉主席，清华大学教授、汽车产业与技术战略研究院（TASRI）院长 赵福全在主旨发言中分享了一系列新思考、新观点。 身处历史巨变的拐点 "站在历史巨变的拐点上，人类社会正在发生翻天覆地的变化；'十五五'将是一个继往开来、承前启后的重要时期。"赵福全谈道，面对百年未有之大 变局，汽车产业需要再盘点、再出发，重新进行战略布局。 "新汽车"时代将迎来革命性变革 人工智能（AI）正在给汽车产业带来一场史无前例的重大变革。 赵福全认为，汽车制造业作为现代工业"皇冠上的明珠"，在拥抱AI的大背景下，正加快进 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Global equity markets experienced a decline, with the MSCI ACWI index down by 2.5% over the past week and 2.4% over the past month, while the MSCI Emerging Markets index fell by 3.7% weekly and 3.6% monthly [6][8]. - The Hang Seng Index dropped by 5.1% last week, reflecting a significant downturn in technology stocks, indicating a clear reduction in market risk appetite [7][8]. - The South Korean KOSPI index decreased by 3.9% last week, with expectations of increased foreign and domestic investment in Korean stocks in 2026 [48]. Group 2: Hong Kong Market Focus - The Hong Kong market is expected to see a recovery in earnings growth, with projections indicating that earnings growth will bottom out in 2025 and rebound thereafter, particularly in the technology sector [25][26]. - Key sectors to watch in the Hong Kong market for 2026 include technology, healthcare, and consumer sectors, with a focus on AI-related industries and innovative pharmaceuticals [27][28]. - Tencent Holdings and Alibaba are highlighted as key stocks, with Tencent expected to benefit from strong growth in gaming and advertising, while Alibaba is set to accelerate investments in AI infrastructure [31][32]. Group 3: South Korean Market Focus - South Korea's inflation rate rose unexpectedly to 2.4% in October, prompting expectations of interest rate cuts starting in January 2026 [40][41]. - The government is actively supporting policies aimed at improving corporate governance and shareholder returns, which is expected to catalyze a revaluation of the stock market [41][42]. - The consensus net profit growth for KOSPI has been revised upward from 22% to 34%, driven by strong performance in key export sectors such as semiconductors [46].

华尔街本以为英伟达公司（NVDA）的爆赚财报能安抚投资者对人工智能（AI）股泡沫的担忧，但事与 愿违。 如今，AI相关交易究竟处于何种境地？答案因人而异。 在英伟达财报发布后的上周四，股市的剧烈波动凸显了这种不确定性。这家芯片巨头的股价起初暴涨逾 5%，带动一众其他AI概念股走高，随后却调转方向，收盘下跌3.2%。标普500指数（SPX）和纳斯达克 100指数（NDX）也随之起伏，开盘上涨后迅速抹去涨幅，最终大幅收跌。 当前市场分为两大阵营，一方是怀疑论者，另一方是乐观主义者，双方观点针锋相对。 怀疑派：担忧估值、债务与系统性风险 乐观派：视回调为健康信号，坚信增长才刚开始 "需求强劲的确定性起初引发了一波缓解性反弹，但投资者现在开始追问后续问题：能源需求如何解 决？利润率情况怎样？投资回报率（ROI）有多少？"Apeira Capital Advisors管理合伙人娜塔莉·黄 （Natalie Hwang）表示，"只要市场仍有未解之惑，缓解性反弹就难以持续。" 上周五，投资者终于获得些许喘息，主要股指早盘在涨跌之间摇摆后，果断转为上涨。 两极对立：怀疑派警惕泡沫风险，乐观派看好长期增长 怀疑论者担心，随着投 ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,220, down 2.38% for the day and up 25.72% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 3.21% to 5,395, with a year-to-date increase of 20.76% [1] - The CSI 300 Index decreased by 2.44% to 4,453, with a year-to-date rise of 13.18% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,834, down 2.45%, marking a year-to-date increase of 14.41% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index dropped 3.41% to 12,538, with a year-to-date increase of 20.39% [1] Currency and Commodity Overview - The Renminbi Index stood at 97.830, up 0.52% over the past month and 1.35% over six months [2] - Brent crude oil price was $62.720 per barrel, up 2.62% month-on-month but down 1.29% over six months [2] - Gold price was $4,059.66 per ounce, down 1.68% month-on-month but up 22.36% over six months [2] - Bitcoin price fell to $83,560, marking a 7.02% decline, the lowest in over seven months [23] Hong Kong Stock Market Review - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant declines, with the Hang Seng Index hitting a two-and-a-half-month low and recording its largest single-day drop in over seven months [5] - Major tech stocks like Alibaba and Baidu fell nearly 5%, while Meituan and JD.com dropped close to 3% [5] - The property sector saw significant declines, with Link REIT dropping about 7.5%, marking a near seven-month low [5] A-Share Market Review - The A-share market saw major indices drop between 2.5% to 4%, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3,900 points [6] - The Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index also reached approximately two-and-a-half-month lows [6] US Stock Market Overview - The US stock market indices closed up nearly 1%, with the Dow Jones rising 1.1% to 46,245 [7] - The Nasdaq Index increased by 0.9% to 22,273, while the S&P 500 rose by nearly 1% to 6,602 [7] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Alphabet rising over 3% while Nvidia and Microsoft fell [7] European Market Overview - European stock markets showed mixed results, with the DAX Index down 0.8% and the CAC Index up slightly [8] - Over the week, German stocks fell nearly 3.3%, while French stocks declined close to 2.3% [8] Economic Indicators - The Central City Leading Index (CCL) in Hong Kong rose 0.54% week-on-week, reaching a near one-and-a-half-year high, with a year-to-date increase of 3.52% [11] - In mainland China, electricity consumption in October reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [20] - Japan's exports to the US have declined for seven consecutive months, with a 3.1% year-on-year drop in October [19]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：财信证券研究） 大势研判。上周在海外市场调整影响下，万得全A指数阶段性向下调整，跌破震荡调整区间，短期仍需合理控制仓位，静待指数企 稳信号出现。一是从资金面来看，11月底之前机构倾向于守住全年收益，加仓意愿不强，但12月中旬开始，机构资金将逐步开始布 局2026年方向，存在"抢跑"的预期；二是中央经济工作会议通常在12月中旬召开，将为明年经济工作指明方向，预计在中央经济工 作会议前后，政策预期利好将支撑市场；三是从技术形态来看，2015年以来，上证指数曾屡次挑战3700点未果，本次有效突破3700 点以后，上证指数3700点附近将从"强压力位"转为"强支撑位"，后续指数调整空间可能有限。我们对中长期市场走势仍然保有信 心，A股这一轮"牛市"并未结束，我们预计12月中旬前后，市场将迎来再次做多的机会窗口期。 投资建议。短期建议适当控制仓位水平，以防守方向为主，适当关注：（1）高股息的大盘蓝筹。例如银行、保险、公用事业、交通 运输等。（2）新消费方向。例如健康、文旅、体育、美容护理、IP经济、宠物经济、文化娱乐等。（3）"反内卷"方向。例如钢 铁、煤炭、建材等。（4）AI应用方向。例如传媒 ...