Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market has different trends and outlooks for various commodities and financial products. For example, the bond futures are expected to face pressure, the stock index is expected to have a gradually rising central fluctuation range, and the precious metals market is expected to have significant volatility [6][9][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.07%, 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank carried out 125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 38.3 billion yuan [5] - **Outlook**: The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the bond futures are expected to face pressure. It is recommended to remain cautious [6] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by - 0.15%, - 0.66%, 3.36%, and 3.06% respectively [8] - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low valuation and economic resilience, along with the inflow of incremental funds, are expected to drive the central fluctuation range of the stock index to gradually rise. It is recommended to hold previous long positions [9] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the gold and silver main contracts rose 2.58% and 6.97% respectively. Eurozone and US PMI data were released [11] - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the recent sharp rise and increased speculation, the market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [13] Steel Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils in different regions were given [15] - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the prices of finished products are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. Rebar demand is in a downward trend, and the market is entering a demand off - season. The supply pressure has eased, and inventory consumption is fast. The prices are likely to continue weak oscillations, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were given. National pig iron daily output is low, and port inventory is rising [17] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened, but there are signs of stabilization in futures. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [17] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The production of domestic coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke is weak [20] - **Outlook**: From a technical perspective, coking coal and coke futures may stop falling and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [20] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose 1.00% each. The spot prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron in different regions changed. The supply and demand of ferroalloys are in a certain situation, and the cost fluctuates slightly [22] - **Outlook**: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the production of ferroalloys has declined, and the overall over - supply pressure persists. The cost is at a low level, and there is support for the low - level range. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [23] Energy Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil bottomed out and rebounded. Relevant data showed that speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of active oil and gas rigs increased. The US imposed new sanctions on Iran [24] - **Outlook**: CFTC data shows that US funds are still bullish on crude oil. The new US sanctions on Iran have pushed up crude oil prices. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [25] Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly and stood above the moving average group. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil inter - month inverse spread widened, and the crack spread continued to rise [27] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [28] Chemical Products Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou showed higher quotes, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao rose. The market has a strong desire to test higher prices, but demand follow - up is insufficient [29] - **Outlook**: The polyolefin market will face a supply - demand tight situation this week, and prices may continue to rise in the short term due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and some production line overhauls. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities [29] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 6.99%. Last week, the market rose, mainly supported by rising butadiene prices and high device operating rates, but limited by weak downstream demand. The inventory is accumulating [31] - **Outlook**: It is expected to show a strong oscillation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price trend of butadiene, the recovery of downstream demand, and whether the device overhauls in January will be implemented [32] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract rose 3.29% and 3.27% respectively. The Shanghai spot price increased, and the basis was stable [34] - **Outlook**: It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation in the short term. The supply is shrinking, the cost support is still there, the demand of tire enterprises is expected to be weak, and the inventory is accumulating [34] PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 2.82%. The spot price increased, and the basis was stable. The current is the traditional off - season for PVC demand [36] - **Outlook**: Although it is in the traditional off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong oscillation in the short - term. In the medium - term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. It is necessary to be vigilant about the uncertainty of demand [36] Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.39%. The price in Shandong Linyi increased, and the basis was stable [40] - **Outlook**: The short - term urea price will maintain a strong oscillation, mainly driven by export demand and cost support. The supply is increasing, the demand of downstream products has different changes, and the inventory situation is given [40] PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose 2.93%. The PXN spread and PX - MX spread are at a certain level, and the PX load has declined [42] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PXN spread and short - process profit are stable, the PX start - up rate is increasing, and the market sentiment and cost - end crude oil may provide support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to participate in the low - level range and be vigilant about the fluctuation of external crude oil [43] PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 4.21%. The PTA device load is stable, the polyester load has decreased, and the processing fee has increased [44] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PTA processing fee has adjusted to the average level of previous years, and the upward space may be limited. The inventory is still low, the supply - end changes are small, the demand - end has a seasonal decline, but the cost - end and market sentiment boost the market. It is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [44] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract increased in volume and rose 5.99%, mainly driven by device production cuts and market sentiment. The overall and synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol operating loads have decreased, and some devices have plans for production cuts or shutdowns [45] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply - end of ethylene glycol has shrunk due to increased domestic and foreign device overhauls, and the market sentiment has been boosted. However, the port inventory still has pressure, and the pre - arrival volume at ports has increased significantly. There is obvious seasonal inventory accumulation pressure in January and February, and it may gradually enter the de - inventory channel in March. The upward space in the short - term may be limited. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [46] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract rose 3.45%. The short - fiber device load has increased slightly, the downstream terminal start - up rate has decreased locally, and the factory's raw material inventory has increased [47] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the short - fiber supply remains at a relatively high level, the sales of polyester short - fiber have improved, the terminal factory is mainly digesting raw material inventory, and the low inventory may provide bottom support. It is mainly trading based on the cost - end logic and may oscillate with raw material prices. It is necessary to control risks and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday inventory stocking [47] Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2603 main contract rose 4.4%. The bottle - chip processing fee has recovered, the factory load has decreased slightly, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts and restarts around the Spring Festival [48] - **Outlook**: Recently, the bottle - chip load has decreased slightly, and there are expectations of supply reduction around the Spring Festival. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic is still on the cost - end. It is expected to oscillate with the cost - end. It is recommended to participate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to the implementation of overhaul devices [48] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1198 yuan/ton, rising 2.04%. The production has decreased slightly, the inventory is still accumulating, the equipment operation is increasing, the downstream demand is general, and the price is relatively stable [49] - **Outlook**: The off - season characteristics are significant. The short - term market lacks substantial support, and the price is expected to adjust steadily. It is recommended to be cautious [51] Glass - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1064 yuan/ton, rising 1.33%. The number of production lines remains unchanged, the inventory is increasing, the trader's inventory is also increasing, the enterprise's shipment has slowed down, and the downstream demand is shrinking [52] - **Outlook**: The market sentiment is calm, the industry profit is low, the downward space is limited. It may rise due to a technical rebound in the short - term, but it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [52] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2603 contract closed at 1945 yuan/ton, rising 0.15%. In winter, the supply is sufficient, the inventory is accumulating, the demand is weak, and the transportation in the north is affected by cold weather [53] - **Outlook**: The seasonal characteristics are significant. The pre - holiday trading sentiment may fluctuate due to the price fluctuation of alumina, but considering that the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, it is recommended to be cautious [54] Pulp - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5398 yuan/ton, rising 0.78%. The inventory is accumulating, the spot trading is light, and the prices of various types of pulp have declined to varying degrees [55] - **Outlook**: The downstream market's inventory stocking is approaching the end, and the port inventory is continuously accumulating. The market sentiment is pessimistic. Although the disk has a short - term technical rebound, it is necessary to treat it rationally [56] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the carbonate lithium main contract rose 7.31% to 181,520 yuan/ton. The macro - liquidity release has pushed up the commodity pricing center [57] - **Outlook**: The supply of lithium resources is elastic, the production is at a high level, the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, the inventory is gradually decreasing, and the price has strong support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. It is necessary to control risks [57] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,830 yuan/ton, rising 2.21%. The US economic data is divided, the Fed's long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose, and the global copper concentrate is in short supply [58] - **Outlook**: The demand is suppressed by high prices, the inventory is accumulating, and the short - term supply - demand is loose. It is expected to adjust at a high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week [59] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,315 yuan/ton, rising 0.75%, and the alumina main contract closed at 2719 yuan/ton, falling 0.11%. The alumina market has a supply surplus, and the high aluminum price suppresses downstream demand [61] - **Outlook**: Both the upstream and downstream of the aluminum industry chain are under pressure in the short - term. It is expected to adjust at a high level [61] Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,690 yuan/ton, rising 0.51%. The domestic refined zinc production has increased, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased slightly [63] - **Outlook**: The zinc price lacks the momentum to continue rising and is unlikely to fall sharply. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [64] Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,145 yuan/ton, rising 0.29%. The lead concentrate processing fee is low, the supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is increasing slightly [66] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the lead price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [66] Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 6.56% to 447,140 yuan/ton. The exchange has introduced cooling measures, and the geopolitical conflicts have pushed up the price center [68] - **Outlook**: The supply is tight, the demand has certain resilience, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is necessary to control risks [68] Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 1.2% to 146,760 yuan/ton. The "strategic reserve" metals have generally risen, and the Indonesian nickel policy has changed [70] - **Outlook**: The nickel ore price has support, but the stainless - steel market is in the off - season, the demand is weak, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant Indonesian policies [70] Agricultural Products Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract and soybean oil main contract rose 0.07% each. The spot prices of soybean meal and soybean oil in different regions changed. The market demand expectation has improved, and the South American weather concerns provide support [71] - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean import has slowed down, the oil - mill crushing is in a loss, the cost support has been adjusted downward, the soybean meal demand has a moderate increase, and the soybean oil demand has slightly improved. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal in the low - cost support range and consider exiting long - positions for soybean oil when the price rises [72] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil has fallen due to profit

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant surge in the non-ferrous metals sector, with the non-ferrous mining ETF (招商, 159690) experiencing a rise of 5.21% and peaking at 6.77% [1] - Major stocks within the sector, such as 白银有色, 中钨高新, and 兴业银锡, reached their daily limit up, while 湖南白银 and 中金黄金 showed notable gains [1] Group 2 - Bank of America has raised its gold price target to $6,000 per ounce, marking the most aggressive forecast among major institutions [3] - Analyst Michael Hartnett noted that historically, gold prices have increased by an average of 300% over approximately 43 months during past bull markets, suggesting a potential peak in spring 2026 [3] - The top three weighted components of the non-ferrous mining ETF are copper (31%), gold (14%), and aluminum (12%), collectively accounting for 57%, indicating a high concentration in leading resources [3] - The ETF acts as a "non-ferrous amplifier," showing significant leverage effects as its net value can increase several times compared to the underlying commodity prices during price uptrends [3] - The mining sector's long-term investment value is expected to benefit from the recovery of the global manufacturing cycle and the ongoing demand from emerging industries such as renewable energy and artificial intelligence [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [7] - Polysilicon: Wait - and - see [8] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [79] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term supply disturbances of industrial silicon and the trend of demand contraction may increase inventory depletion, but it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate. For polysilicon, due to poor contract liquidity, investors are advised to be cautious. Lithium carbonate inventory has been substantially depleted, and the fundamentals support the price, which is expected to continue to be strong [7][8][79]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon (SI) Supply - The national weekly output is 7.62 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78%; the number of open furnaces is 217, a week - on - week decrease of 4. The December output is 39.71 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 19.75%; the January production schedule is 37.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 24.26% [7]. Demand - For polysilicon, the weekly output is 2.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.40%. The December output is 11.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.79% and a year - on - year increase of 18.71%; the January production schedule is 10.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% and a year - on - year increase of 14.19%. For organic silicon, the DMC weekly output is 4.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.61% [7]. Inventory - The explicit inventory is 51.78 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.86%. The industry inventory is 45.30 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. The warehouse receipt inventory is 6.49 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.44% [7]. Cost and Profit - The national average cost per ton is 8998 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62%; the gross profit per ton is - 46 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. The gross profit in the main producing areas is basically stable [7]. Investment View - The price is expected to oscillate, and the unilateral trading is bearish [7]. Polysilicon (PS) Supply - The national weekly output is 2.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.40%. The December output is 11.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.79% and a year - on - year increase of 18.71%; the January production schedule is 10.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% and a year - on - year increase of 14.19% [8]. Demand - The silicon wafer weekly output is 10.95GW, a week - on - week increase of 4.79%. The December silicon wafer output is 43.9GW, a month - on - month decrease of 19.26% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.01%; the January production schedule is 45.2GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.74% [8]. Inventory - The factory inventory is 32.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%. The registered warehouse receipts are 20550 tons, a week - on - week increase of 52.22% [8]. Cost and Profit - The national average cost per ton is 42969 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 0.41%; the gross profit per ton is 16241 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 174 yuan [8]. Investment View - Due to poor contract liquidity, investors are advised to wait and see and be cautious about price fluctuations and liquidity risks [8]. Lithium Carbonate (LC) Supply - The national weekly output is 2.22 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%. The December output is 9.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04% and a year - on - year increase of 41.00%; the January production schedule is about 9.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year increase of 56.78% [79]. Import - In December, the lithium carbonate import volume is 2.40 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The lithium concentrate import volume is 62.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.31% and a year - on - year increase of 30.22% [79]. Material Demand - For iron - lithium materials, the weekly output is 9.86 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.39%. The December output is 40.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17% and a year - on - year increase of 46.00%; the January production schedule is 36.34 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.03% and a year - on - year increase of 44.29%. For ternary materials, the weekly output is 1.80 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88% [79]. Terminal Demand - In December, the new energy vehicle production is 171.80 million, a month - on - month decrease of 8.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.29%; the sales volume is 171.00 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6.18% and a year - on - year increase of 7.14%. From January to November, the cumulative winning bid power/scale of energy storage is 59.48GW/160.39GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 70.53%/118.93% [79]. Inventory - The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 10.89 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%. The lithium salt factory inventory is 1.98 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.54%. The warehouse receipt inventory is 2.82 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.50% [79]. Cost and Profit - For lithium extraction from purchased ore, the cash production cost of lithium mica is 149738 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%; the production profit is 9003 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4467 yuan/ton. The cash production cost of lithium spodumene is 154692 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.87%; the production profit is 7644 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4163 yuan/ton [79]. Investment View - The price is expected to continue to be strong, and the unilateral trading is bullish [79].

装备制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 01 月 26 日 [T分析师： able_Author 赵晓闯] 执业证书号：S1030511010004 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：zhaoxc@csco.com.cn 分析师：杨贵洲 执业证书号：S1030524060001 研究助理：董李延楠 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：donglyn@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 固态电池产业持续推进 [Table_ReportType]装备制造行业周报（1 月第 3 周） [Table_S 市场行情回顾 ummary] ： 上周 5 个交易日机械设备、电力设备及汽车行业指数涨跌幅 分别为+2.56%、+3.57%及+2.51%，在 31 个申万一级行业中排 名分别为第 13、11、14 位；同期沪深 300 涨跌幅为-0.62%。 行业观点： 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：yanggz1@csco.com.cn 4) 风险提示：宏观经济风险、产业政策风险、行业竞争加剧风险。 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Indu ...

Group 1 - The technology sector, including software, storage chips, and semiconductor equipment, experienced a collective adjustment on January 26, with significant declines in various indices [1] - The STAR 50 Index fell by 1.0%, the STAR Composite Index decreased by 1.9%, the STAR Growth Index dropped by 2.2%, the STAR 200 Index declined by 2.3%, and the STAR 100 Index decreased by 2.4% [1] Group 2 - The STAR 200 Index consists of 200 stocks from the STAR Market that are smaller in market capitalization and have good liquidity, focusing on small-cap "growth potential" companies [7] - The electronic and medical biology sectors, along with machinery equipment, account for nearly 70% of the STAR 200 Index, with a high proportion in the electronic sector [7] - The STAR Composite Index ETF, managed by E Fund, tracks the STAR Composite Index, which covers the entire market of the STAR Board, focusing on artificial intelligence, semiconductors, new energy, and innovation [6][7]

1月26日，A股早盘走势分化，中小盘股表现疲软，市场逾3800股飘绿，截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.12%， 深成指跌0.74%，创业板指跌0.86%。 据券商中国报道，代表风险偏好的两大变量集体来袭。 一是地缘风险加剧和美元指数杀跌背景之下，金银期货、现货大涨，引导了资金流向； 二是热门股集体跳水，卫星ETF大跌近5%，炒作显著退潮。市场似乎走向了防御。 油气板块震荡走强 ，中国海油涨超6%，创历史新高，和顺石油涨停，中国石油、中国石化等跟涨。 点评：消息面上，受侵袭美国大部分地区的冬季风暴影响，美国天然气价格1月25日大幅飙升，期货价 格自2022年以来首次突破每百万英热单位6美元关口。东海证券指出，原油价格仍是周期判断的关键变 量。展望2026年，若油价趋稳后在全球复苏周期迎来温和上涨，利好炼化盈利进一步修复。 3、白酒板块下挫 白酒板块震荡下挫，洋河股份跌超8%，创2017年11月以来新低，水井坊、古井贡酒、今世缘、金徽酒 等跟跌。 盘面上，大金融板块护盘，券商、保险等方向领涨；资源主线强势，其中，有色、贵金属概念持续爆 发，四川黄金等多股涨停，油气板块走强，中国海油创历史新高；化工板块异动拉升，红宝丽直线 ...

化工板块今日（1月26日）继续走强，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘冲高后短暂走弱，而后继续拉升，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到 1.32%，截至发稿，涨0.91%。 化工ETF联接A申购费率为：100万元以下，0.8%；100万元（含）-200万元，0.5%；200万元（含）以上，每笔1000元。赎回费率为：7天以内，1.5%；7天 （含）-180天，0.5%；180天（含）-以上，0%。 化工ETF联接C赎回费率为7天以内，1.5%；7天（含）-以上，0%。销售服务费率为0.2%。 风险提示：化工ETF被动跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，该指数基日为2004.12.31，发布于2012.4.11。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整，其 回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。文中提及个股仅为指数成份股客观展示列举，不作为任何个股推荐，不代表基金管理人和基金投资方向。任何在本文出 现的信息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。另，本文 中的任何观点、分析及预测不构成对阅读者任何形式的投资建议，亦不对因使用本文内容所引 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the technical adjustment of non - ferrous related varieties last week, there are signs of a rebound, and silver has reached a new high. The underlying logic is the demand logic of related commodities driven by the new economy, new energy, and AI economy, and there may be a risk of short - squeeze as the market progresses. The anti - involution logic of low - valued varieties is gradually advancing. Recently, chemical varieties have shown signs of a rebound and increased trading activity, which is worthy of attention. The national policy is determined to rectify involution - style competition and adjust the dynamic adjustment ability of the supply side. It is believed that anti - involution will be an inevitable theme in 2026 [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Week - long Market Viewpoint Summary - The strength - weakness structure of the commodity market in the past week remains unchanged, with non - ferrous metals and precious metals remaining strong. Chemical varieties have also shown strong performance recently. After a recent technical adjustment, non - ferrous commodities are strengthening again, and the upward trend continues [4]. - Gold and silver have broken through new highs after a short - term technical adjustment, and there are no signs of a trend reversal from the technical form [4]. - In the context of the easing of China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed oil has weakened, but soybean oil and palm oil are unaffected. The overall downside space for oils and fats is very limited, and they can be used as long - position allocations [4]. - The chemical sector will generally operate within the anti - involution framework in 2026. The national policy emphasizes the supply - demand adjustment of the petrochemical sector. The production capacity of glass has declined significantly recently, and the valuation of chemical products has reached an extreme level [4]. - Steel in the black sector is one of the key anti - involution varieties, and the downside space for coal is also limited. The coal supply - guarantee market is nearing its end. Recently, chemical varieties are showing signs of an upward trend [4]. 3.2 Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital flow is 34.115 billion yuan. Among them, precious metals have a capital inflow of 5.764 billion yuan, non - ferrous metals 3.479 billion yuan, black metals - 0.594 billion yuan, energy 0.274 billion yuan, chemicals 4.047 billion yuan, feed and breeding 0.478 billion yuan, oils and fats 2.118 billion yuan, and soft commodities 0.259 billion yuan [9]. - **Black and Non - ferrous Weekly Data**: It shows price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, open - interest change percentile, and annualized basis for various black and non - ferrous varieties such as iron ore, rebar, gold, silver, etc. For example, the price percentile of iron ore is 21.8%, and the inventory percentile is 100% [9]. - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: It details price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, open - interest change percentile, and annualized basis for energy and chemical products such as fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. For example, the price percentile of fuel oil is 7.5%, and the inventory percentile is 44.1% [11]. - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: It provides price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, open - interest change percentile, and annualized basis for agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. For example, the price percentile of soybean meal is 9.9%, and the inventory percentile is 91.9% [12].

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong momentum, with the Chemical ETF (516020) showing a significant price increase of over 1.2% and reaching a nearly three-year high [1] - As of January 23, the Chemical ETF (516020) has attracted a net subscription of over 1.1 billion yuan in the past five days and over 1.5 billion yuan in the past ten days, indicating strong capital inflow [1] - Professional institutions suggest that the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand, which will drive the transition of new and old growth drivers, leading to expected growth in chemical product demand [1] Group 2 - The Chemical ETF (516020) and its linked fund (012537) track the CSI segmented chemical industry theme index, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks such as Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry [2] - The remaining 50% of the portfolio includes leading stocks in sub-sectors like phosphate fertilizers, fluorine chemicals, and nitrogen fertilizers, allowing for a comprehensive grasp of investment opportunities in the chemical sector [2] Group 3 - The chemical industry is expected to reach a cyclical turning point upward by 2026, transitioning from valuation recovery to earnings growth, driven by strong policy expectations and established supply-demand fundamentals [1] - According to Guangfa Securities, the chemical industry typically follows a five-year cycle, going through stages of profit growth, capacity expansion, profit bottoming, and demand expectation improvement [1]

商品属性叠加中国需求形成支撑。铜价受新能源、AI基建需求上行，世行预测2026年涨1%；铁矿石稳 于130美元/吨上方，受益中国基建。瑞银称，中国5%左右的增速持续支撑澳洲资源需求，利好澳元。 1月26日(周一)，澳元兑美元强势上行，盘中最高触及0.6931，创16个月新高，截至发稿交投于0.6913， 日内涨幅0.26%，开年累计上涨3.6%，跻身2026年表现最佳G10货币。澳联储鹰派预期、大宗商品支 撑、美澳政策分化三大因素共振，叠加美元走弱，持续为澳元提供上行动力。 日内走势上，澳元兑美元今开0.6922，亚洲时段依托0.6894支撑震荡攀升，突破0.6900关口至0.6931；欧 洲时段因获利了结小幅回落，仍稳守0.6900上方，与欧元、日元等非美货币联动走强，强势韧性凸显。 核心驱动：政策分化定调，商品与经济双重托底 澳联储鹰派立场是核心支撑。央行连续三次维持3.6%基准利率，行长博洛克明确不考虑降息，甚至将 加息纳入2026年议程，终结降息预期。市场定价2月加息概率27%、3月逼近50%，机构预测利率或升至 3.85%。通胀黏性提供支撑，去年12月消费者通胀预期反弹至4.7%，核心通胀超政策目标 ...