Group 1 - DBS Bank's latest report indicates that the internal AI application proliferation at Tencent will significantly support the growth momentum of its two core business segments: online gaming and online advertising [1] - The bank has reiterated its "buy" rating for Tencent Holdings and raised the 12-month target price from HKD 786 to HKD 800 [1] - In the advertising sector, Tencent has launched an automated advertising solution called "AIM+", which has shown early data indicating a return on investment (ROI) superior to traditional manual advertising methods due to more precise targeting and creative generation [1] Group 2 - In the gaming sector, DBS believes that AI-driven non-player characters (NPCs), more efficient content creation processes, and precise marketing tools will further deepen user engagement and enhance monetization capabilities [1] - Based on the expected business improvements driven by AI technology, DBS has raised Tencent's adjusted profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 4%, 5%, and 8% respectively [1] - Regarding market concerns about computing power, Tencent's management has stated that despite adjustments to the capital expenditure plan for fiscal year 2025 due to chip supply constraints, the company currently has sufficient chip reserves to meet internal AI application needs, and the long-term revenue growth trajectory driven by AI remains unaffected [1] Group 3 - In terms of valuation, DBS employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a 20x price-to-earnings ratio to Tencent's core business for fiscal year 2026, along with the fair value of its listed investments, resulting in a target price of HKD 800 [2] - This target price corresponds to a 25x price-to-earnings ratio for fiscal year 2026, slightly above its historical average of 20x over the past five years [2]

Market Overview - On November 20, US stock markets opened high but closed lower, with all three major indices declining. The Dow Jones fell by 0.84% to 45,752.26 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 1.56% to 6,538.76 points, and the Nasdaq decreased by 2.15% to 22,078.05 points [3][5] - Large-cap technology stocks collectively declined, with the Wind US Technology Seven Giants Index falling by 1.74%. Notably, Nvidia dropped over 3%, while Amazon and Tesla fell over 2% [5][6] Nvidia Performance - Nvidia initially surged over 5% due to a strong quarterly earnings report and optimistic sales outlook, but reversed to close down over 3%. CEO Jensen Huang stated that demand for the current generation Blackwell chips is "extremely strong" [7][8] - Despite Nvidia's strong earnings, analysts express concerns about the company's growth potential and market share nearing its peak, leading to overall market caution regarding high valuations in AI-related companies [8] Employment Data Impact - The US Labor Department released the September non-farm payroll report, showing an increase of 119,000 jobs, more than double the expected 51,000. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [10][11] - This report is significant as it is the last employment data available before the Federal Reserve's meeting in December, complicating the decision-making process regarding potential interest rate cuts [11] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a divergence among officials regarding the need for further rate cuts, with some believing inflation is close to target while others see it remaining above the 2% goal [11] - The uncertainty surrounding key economic data due to the federal government "shutdown" may also influence the Fed's decision on interest rates [11]

Core Insights - The company achieved a significant turnaround in profitability during Q3 2025, with adjusted net profit reaching 0.29 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 2.4 billion yuan in the same period last year, indicating a clear inflection point in earnings [1][4] Revenue Growth - In Q3 2025, the company reported total revenue of 2.478 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 31.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5.5%, primarily driven by the continued high growth of its AI business [1] - Public cloud revenue reached 1.752 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 49.1% year-over-year and 7.8% quarter-over-quarter, with AI billing revenue contributing 780 million yuan, marking a nearly 120% increase year-over-year [2] Profitability Metrics - The adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was 827 million yuan, a substantial increase of 345.9% year-over-year, leading to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.4%, which improved by 23.6 percentage points year-over-year and 16.1 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1][4] - The company successfully turned around both adjusted operating profit and adjusted net profit, achieving 0.15 billion yuan and 0.29 billion yuan respectively, compared to losses of 1.4 billion yuan and 2.4 billion yuan in the previous year [1] Ecosystem and Industry Cloud - Revenue from the Xiaomi & Kingsoft ecosystem reached 690 million yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting an 84% year-over-year increase and accounting for 28% of total revenue [3] - The industry cloud segment also showed stable growth, with revenue of 726 million yuan in Q3 2025, up 2.2% year-over-year and 0.2% quarter-over-quarter, indicating ongoing collaboration and project advancements [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates strong customer demand for AI services, with high-margin inference business expected to increase in proportion, potentially leading to new growth points in robotics and API services [2] - The company maintains revenue forecasts of 9.5 billion yuan, 11.03 billion yuan, and 12.55 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, while adjusting the projected adjusted net profit for 2025 to -548 million yuan, reflecting improved profitability expectations [4][6]

Group 1 - Strait Innovation and Pingtan Development have completed their suspension verification work and will resume trading today [1] - Chuan Yin High-Tech's Zhongzhong Group plans to make a tender offer to acquire 20% of the company's shares at a price of 11.85 yuan per share [1] - The new stock China Uranium Industry (001280) is available for subscription today at an issue price of 17.89 yuan per share [1] Group 2 - The 23rd Guangzhou International Auto Show will be held from November 21 to 30 [1] - Huawei is set to release new technologies in the AI field today, which are expected to address the challenges of computing resource utilization efficiency [1] - The Hang Seng Index Company announced the results of the third quarter review of the Hang Seng Index series today [1]

Market Overview - On November 21, US stock markets experienced significant volatility, with the Nasdaq initially rising over 2% due to Nvidia's strong earnings report, but ultimately closing down over 2% as valuation concerns resurfaced and interest rate cut expectations were further dampened [1][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.84% to 45,752.26 points, the S&P 500 dropped 1.56% to 6,538.76 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 2.15% to 22,078.05 points [3] Nvidia Performance - Nvidia's stock rose by 5% during the day but closed down 3%. CEO Jensen Huang emphasized strong demand for the Blackwell chip and denied the existence of an AI bubble, yet market concerns prevailed [3] - Analyst Jeff Kilburg from KKM Financial noted that Nvidia's momentum is being overshadowed by declining expectations for a December interest rate cut, which was previously anticipated [3] Employment Data Impact - The US non-farm payrolls report for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly above the market estimate of 52,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, slightly above the expected 4.3% [3] - This strong employment data has contributed to lowering expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a December cut now below 40% [3] Retail Sector Highlights - Walmart was one of the few stocks to perform well, with its shares rising over 6% after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter sales and revenue, partly due to growth in its e-commerce business [3][4] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down 2.97%, Microsoft down 1.60%, Apple down 0.86%, Google down 1.15%, Amazon down 2.49%, Meta down 0.19%, Tesla down 2.21%, Broadcom down 2.14%, and Oracle down 6.58% [5] - Chinese stocks also fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 3.26%, Alibaba down 3.53%, JD.com down 1.68%, Pinduoduo down 4.31%, NIO down 6.09%, Xpeng down 5.10%, Li Auto down 2.32%, Bilibili down 4.54%, Baidu down 4.36%, NetEase up 0.40%, Tencent Music down 5.61%, and Pony.ai down 4.86% [5] Company News - Google launched a new image generation and editing model called NANO BANANA PRO, which is designed to produce clearer images and support more precise and readable text in multiple languages [5] - SoftBank plans to invest up to $3 billion to retrofit an electric vehicle factory in Lordstown, Ohio, to produce equipment for OpenAI's upcoming data center, making SoftBank one of OpenAI's largest investors [6] - Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, announced the expansion of its autonomous ride-hailing service to Minneapolis, Tampa, and New Orleans [7] - Verizon announced it will lay off over 13,000 employees as part of a plan to streamline operations and reduce external labor costs, indicating that every department will undergo some level of change [8]

Group 1 - The core focus of the INTU earnings call is on the sustainability of high growth driven by AI and TurboTax Live, as well as the performance improvement of Mailchimp [2] - Xiaomi's press conference will highlight the official launch of the Xiaomi HAD enhanced version, an in-house developed end-to-end all-scenario driving assistance system aimed at improving perception, decision-making, and control in complex road conditions [4] - The annual strategy report by the chief analyst of Zhejiang Merchants Securities will provide in-depth analysis on the changes in the internet (AI and instant retail), gaming (future profit expectations and valuation trends), film and television (post-policy changes), education (AI in education), and new directions such as short dramas and interactive dramas [6] Group 2 - The investment strategy outlook for the telecommunications sector emphasizes the importance of computing power and new technological breakthroughs, with a positive outlook on AI-driven demand for computing power and applications [8] - The traditional telecommunications industry is facing challenges due to declining capital expenditures from telecom operators, but the development of key 6G technologies and increased focus on AI by operators are areas of interest [9] - Miniso's earnings call will focus on whether overseas store growth can exceed expectations, the impact of IP collaborations and membership systems on gross margin, and the potential rebound of the Chinese market amid consumer fatigue [11]

Core Insights - The article highlights the importance of a comprehensive and fundamental approach to analyzing the stock market, emphasizing the unique insights gained from a background in political economics [1]. Group 1 - The individual has over a decade of experience studying the stock market and has developed a keen eye for identifying hidden investment opportunities [1]. - The analysis focuses on understanding the macroeconomic factors that influence asset performance [1]. - The individual dedicates significant time to data analysis and writing for financial websites, indicating a commitment to sharing insights with a broader audience [1].

查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 点击注册小程序 1）3Q25小鹏汽车业务收入同比+105.3%/环比+6.9%至180.5亿元（ASP同环比-17.7%/-4.9%至15.6万元， 交付量同环比+149.3%/+12.4%至11.6万辆），汽车业务毛利率同比+4.5pcts/环比-1.2pcts至13.1%。2） 3Q25 R&D费用率同比-4.2pcts/环比-0.2pcts至11.9%，SG&A费用率同环比-3.9pcts/+0.4pcts至12.2%。3） 截至3Q25，在手现金等价物合计约483.3亿元。我们判断，1）3Q25小鹏汽车业务毛利率环比回落主要由于 Mona M03的销量占比偏高+旧车型清库等因素影响。2）我们预计随着X9超级增程版上市，公司月度销量 有望进一步爬 ...

Group 1 - Geely Automobile (0175.HK) reported a total revenue of 239.48 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.5%, with a gross margin of 16.5%, up 0.3 percentage points [5] - In Q3 2025, Geely's total revenue reached 89.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.82 billion yuan, up 57.6% year-on-year [5] Group 2 - XPeng Motors (XPEV.N) achieved total revenue of 20.38 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5%, with a gross margin of 20.1% [6] - The Non-GAAP net loss for XPeng narrowed by 90.1% year-on-year and 60.6% quarter-on-quarter to 150 million yuan [6] Group 3 - Zhejiang Dingli (603338.SH) reported operating revenue of 6.67 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.59 billion yuan, up 9.2% [6] - The gross margin for Zhejiang Dingli was 35.9%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 0.1 percentage points to 23.9% [6] Group 4 - Xunwei Communication (300136.SZ) is expanding into the North American AI hardware supply chain, focusing on new business areas such as AI terminal hardware and data centers, which opens up future growth opportunities [9] - The global consumer electronics market is showing signs of recovery, and the company is investing in foundational materials and technologies [9] Group 5 - Kuaishou-W (1024.HK) reported total revenue of 35.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, slightly exceeding expectations [10] - The core commercial business revenue, which includes online marketing services, grew by 19.2% year-on-year [10] Group 6 - Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) achieved revenue of 113.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, with a Non-IFRS net profit of 11.3 billion yuan, up 80.9% year-on-year [10] - The smart car and AI innovation business reported a positive profit of 700 million yuan for the first time in a single quarter [10] Group 7 - Baidu Group-SW (9888.HK) reported core business revenue of 24.66 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decline of 7.0%, but still exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [10] - The operating profit was 1.22 billion yuan, below consensus expectations, with a significant increase in capital expenditure to 3.38 billion yuan, up 106.4% year-on-year [10]

Core Viewpoint - Baidu Group's Q3 2025 core business revenue declined by 7.0% year-on-year, primarily due to increased investment in AI and a decrease in traditional search business revenue [4] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 2025 core business revenue was 24.66 billion yuan, which was 1.5% lower than Bloomberg consensus expectations [4] - Operating profit for Q3 2025 was 1.22 billion yuan, falling short of consensus expectations by 970 million yuan, with an operating profit margin of 4.9%, down 16.5 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Capital expenditure in Q3 2025 reached 3.38 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 106.4% [4] Group 2: AI Revenue Growth - AI revenue surpassed 10 billion yuan for the first time in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 50% [5] - AI Cloud revenue was 6.2 billion yuan, up 21% year-on-year, with IaaS and PaaS revenue at 4.2 billion yuan, growing by 33% [5] - AI applications generated 2.6 billion yuan in revenue, including products like Baidu Wenku and Baidu Wangpan [5] - AI native advertising revenue reached 2.8 billion yuan, a significant increase of 262% year-on-year, accounting for 18% of the company's core advertising revenue, up from 4% in Q3 2024 [5] Group 3: Autonomous Driving Expansion - The "Luobo Kuai Pao" service provided 3.1 million autonomous driving services in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 212% [6] - As of October 2025, the service has expanded to 22 cities globally, partnering with Uber in Asia and the Middle East, and with Lyft in Germany and the UK [6] Group 4: Traditional Advertising Challenges - Excluding AI native advertising, traditional advertising revenue was 12.58 billion yuan, down 26.8% year-on-year [7] - The decline in traditional search advertising revenue is attributed to AI search and overview features that do not direct users to web clicks, reducing monetization capabilities [7] - AI native advertising forms like Agent and digital humans are enhancing the commercialization of previously non-advertising intent web pages, indicating a new growth curve rather than a simple replacement of traditional search [7]