Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) reported record high revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue and other income reaching HKD 14.076 billion, a 33% increase from the same period in 2024, and shareholder profit rising by 39% to HKD 8.519 billion [1][2][12] Financial Performance - Total revenue and other income for H1 2025 was HKD 14.076 billion, up 33% from HKD 10.621 billion in H1 2024 [2] - Shareholder profit for H1 2025 was HKD 8.519 billion, compared to HKD 6.125 billion in H1 2024, marking a 39% increase [2] - Basic earnings per share increased to HKD 6.74 from HKD 4.84, a 39% rise [2] - Interim dividend declared at HKD 6.00 per share, up 38% from HKD 4.36 in the previous year [2] Market Activity - The average daily trading volume for equity securities reached HKD 222.84 billion, a 122% increase from HKD 100.3 billion in the previous year [7] - The average daily trading volume for derivatives and warrants was HKD 17.4 billion, up 72% from HKD 10.1 billion [7] - The average daily trading volume for Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 111.04 billion, a 196% increase from HKD 37.5 billion [7] - The number of new listings in H1 2025 was 44, raising a total of HKD 1.094 billion, a more than sevenfold increase year-on-year [8][9] Strategic Developments - HKEX is focusing on enhancing its product ecosystem, optimizing listing systems, and expanding into new commodity business directions [2][12] - A cooperation agreement was signed with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to explore improvements in post-trade securities infrastructure, including the development of an international central securities depository [12] - HKEX plans to include Renminbi-denominated stocks in the Stock Connect program to facilitate trading for mainland investors [13] - The introduction of a "Tech Company Fast Track" aims to streamline the listing process for technology and biotech firms [13] Future Outlook - The CEO expressed optimism for the second half of 2025, emphasizing the commitment to enhancing platform infrastructure and product offerings to adapt to the changing global macroeconomic environment [2][12] - The company remains cautious about external uncertainties, including geopolitical risks and interest rate fluctuations, while maintaining a positive outlook for market performance [14]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) reported record high revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong market performance and strategic initiatives [1][2][12]. Financial Performance - HKEX's revenue and other income reached HKD 14.076 billion, a 33% increase from HKD 10.621 billion in the first half of 2024 [2]. - Shareholder profit was HKD 8.519 billion, up 39% from HKD 6.125 billion in the same period last year [2]. - The average daily trading volume for equity products was HKD 240.24 billion, a significant increase of 118% year-on-year [7][8]. - The average daily trading volume for Hong Kong Stock Connect reached HKD 111.04 billion, nearly three times that of the previous year [9]. Market Highlights - The number of new listings in Hong Kong surged, with 44 companies raising a total of HKD 1,094 billion, marking a more than sevenfold increase compared to the previous year [8][9]. - HKEX's stock price increased by nearly 50% year-to-date in 2025, reflecting strong market sentiment [3]. Strategic Developments - HKEX is focusing on enhancing its product ecosystem, optimizing listing processes, and expanding its commodity business [2][12]. - A partnership with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority aims to improve post-trade securities infrastructure, which is crucial for the long-term development of fixed income and currency products [12][13]. - The introduction of the "Tech Company Fast Track" aims to facilitate the listing of technology and biotech firms, enhancing market quality and transparency [13]. Future Outlook - HKEX plans to continue improving its platform and product offerings to provide diverse options and liquidity for investors [2][12]. - The company remains cautiously optimistic about the market outlook for the second half of 2025, despite external uncertainties [14].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Barra Risk Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies and quantifies common factors (industry and style factors) and idiosyncratic factors affecting stock returns, aiming to decompose return sources and provide risk constraints such as industry and style neutrality[119][121]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Data Processing**: - Align reporting periods due to varying fiscal years among Hong Kong-listed companies[120]. - Standardize accounting standards using Wind GSD reports, converting to IFRS[120]. - Normalize financial reporting currencies using time-series exchange rates[120]. - Exclude dual-counter trading stocks and REITs for consistency[120]. - **Factor Construction**: - Constructed for three pools: Southbound Stock Connect, full Hong Kong market, and full market excluding penny stocks[121]. - Includes 10 major style factors (e.g., Beta, Momentum, Size, Earnings Yield) and industry factors[121]. - Factors are standardized using median-based outlier removal and normalized to standard normal distribution[122]. - Factor returns are calculated using Weighted Least Squares (WLS) with free-float market cap weights[122]. - Formula for WLS: ``` min Σ sqrt(w_i,t-1) * (r_i,t - Σ β_i,k,t-1 * f_k,t + Σ γ_i,m,t-1 * g_m,t)^2 ``` where weights are the fourth root of free-float market cap proportions[123]. - **Factor Definitions**: - Beta: Systematic risk derived from regression of stock returns against market returns[125]. - Momentum: Weighted log returns over a 500-day period[125]. - Size: Logarithm of total market capitalization[125]. - Earnings Yield: Inverse of P/E ratio[125]. - Volatility: Derived from residual standard deviation and monthly return ranges[125]. - Growth: Based on regression of past five years' revenue and earnings per share[125]. - Value: Inverse of P/B ratio[125]. - Leverage: Includes metrics like market leverage and debt-to-asset ratio[125]. - Liquidity: Based on trading volume relative to free-float shares over different time horizons[125]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates good applicability in the Hong Kong market, with stable R² values across different pools[126][152]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Barra Risk Model - **R² Values**: - Southbound Stock Connect: Average R² = 36.7% since 2014[126][152]. - Full Hong Kong Market: Average R² = 17.4%[126][152]. - Full Market (Excluding Penny Stocks): Average R² = 21.9%[126][152]. - **Factor Cumulative Returns**: - Positive: Beta, Momentum, Liquidity, BP, Earnings Yield[130][149]. - Negative: Size, Growth, Non-Linear Size[130][149]. - Mixed: Volatility (positive for full market, negative for Southbound Stock Connect), Leverage (positive for full market, negative for Southbound Stock Connect)[130][149]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Penny Stock Screening - **Factor Construction Idea**: Screen stocks based on price, financial, and behavioral metrics to identify and exclude penny stocks[117][118]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Price Metrics**: - Rolling one-month average closing price < 1 HKD and market cap < 10 billion HKD[117]. - Rolling one-month average closing price < 1 HKD and average trading volume in the lowest 20% of the market[117]. - **Financial Metrics**: - ROE and debt-to-asset ratio thresholds[118]. - **Behavioral Metrics**: - History of stock splits or rights issues in the past year[118]. - **Exclusion of "Three Highs"**: High equity pledges, high debt ratios, and frequent fundraising activities[118]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Helps mitigate risks associated with high-volatility, low-liquidity stocks prevalent in the Hong Kong market[117][118]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Penny Stock Screening - **Market Characteristics**: - As of June 2025, 56% of Hong Kong stocks are priced below 1 HKD, with 14.5% below 0.1 HKD[112][113]. - Penny stocks exhibit high volatility and low liquidity, making them risky for investment[112][117]. 2. Barra Risk Model Factors - **Cumulative Returns by Factor**: - Beta: Positive across all pools[130][149]. - Momentum: Positive across all pools[130][149]. - Size: Negative across all pools[130][149]. - Earnings Yield: Positive across all pools[130][149]. - Volatility: Positive for full market, negative for Southbound Stock Connect[130][149]. - Growth: Negative across all pools[130][149]. - Value: Positive across all pools[130][149]. - Leverage: Positive for full market, negative for Southbound Stock Connect[130][149]. - Liquidity: Positive across all pools[130][149].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index and the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovation Drug Index have undergone a composition adjustment effective from August 11 [1] - The new calculation method excludes companies primarily engaged in the CXO industry, including Contract Research Organizations (CRO), Contract Manufacturing Organizations (CMO), and Contract Development and Manufacturing Organizations (CDMO) [1] - The adjustment introduces a requirement for Southbound trading connectivity, meaning only stocks that meet the Hong Kong Stock Connect criteria can be included, enhancing investment convenience [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index will maintain a fixed number of 40 constituent stocks, with eligible securities selected based on their relevance to innovative drug business [1] - The adjustment reflects the latest development trends in the Hong Kong innovative drug sector, providing investors with a more precise market benchmark [1] - The changes also indicate a trend of deeper integration between the capital markets of the two regions as the connectivity mechanism continues to improve [1]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China announced new measures to enhance the Bond Connect program, allowing foreign institutions to use Northbound Bond Connect for margin payments in swap transactions, which will increase the application of RMB bonds as offshore collateral [1][3] - The Bond Connect program has significantly increased the daily trading volume of Northbound transactions, from an average of 1.5 billion RMB in its first month to approximately 46.6 billion RMB in May 2023, representing a growth of over 30 times [1][3] - The Chinese bond market is now the second largest globally, yet the proportion of foreign investment remains relatively low, indicating substantial room for growth [2][3] Industry Developments - The Bond Connect has become a crucial link between domestic and international bond markets, facilitating foreign capital inflow into China's financial markets [3] - As of May 2024, over 1,100 institutions from more than 70 countries and regions have entered the Chinese interbank bond market, with foreign institutions holding a total of 4.3 trillion RMB in bonds, reflecting an average annual growth rate of nearly 20% over the past five years [3] - The Northbound Swap Connect has attracted 61 foreign institutions, completing over 4,300 transactions with a total nominal principal of approximately 2.2 trillion RMB, showcasing significant growth in trading volume [3]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have become significant participants in the Hong Kong stock market, holding 18.24% of the total shares of Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks, with a total market value of 55,994.41 billion HKD [1]. Group 1: Southbound Fund Holdings - As of July 29, southbound funds held a total of 4,563.87 million shares in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks, representing 18.24% of the total share capital [1]. - The market value of shares held by southbound funds accounts for 13.77% of the total market capitalization of the stocks [1]. - There are 222 stocks where southbound funds hold over 20% of the total share capital, while 135 stocks have a holding ratio between 10% and 20% [1]. Group 2: Industry Distribution - The stocks with over 20% holdings by southbound funds are primarily concentrated in the healthcare, industrial, and financial sectors, with 43, 35, and 32 stocks respectively [2]. - Among the stocks with the highest southbound fund holdings, China Telecom leads with 74.69%, followed by Green Power Environmental and China Shenhua with 69.97% and 66.91% respectively [2]. Group 3: Characteristics of High Holdings - A majority of the stocks with high southbound fund holdings are AH concept stocks, with 125 out of 222 stocks (56.31%) having over 20% holdings being AH shares [1]. - The distribution of holdings shows that 14.81% of stocks with 10% to 20% holdings are also AH shares [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth of Hong Kong's asset and wealth management industry, with total assets surpassing HKD 35 trillion and a net inflow of funds increasing by 81% in 2024 [1][2] - Chinese institutions have shown remarkable performance, with their management scale growing by 15% to HKD 3.09 trillion and net fund inflows surging by 68%, outperforming the industry average for five consecutive years [1][6][8] - The growth of Hong Kong's asset management sector is attributed to three main drivers: market performance, global capital rebalancing, and policy optimization [2][3] Group 2 - The report indicates that as of the end of 2024, the total value of managed assets in Hong Kong increased by 13% year-on-year, reaching HKD 35.14 trillion, with significant contributions from asset management and private banking sectors [2][4] - The rise in asset management scale is linked to the performance of the Hang Seng Index, which rose by 18% over the past year, and the Chinese dollar bond index, which increased by 12% [2][3] - The implementation of the "Interconnection 2.0" policy has facilitated a 2.4-fold increase in net inflows from southbound funds, accounting for 36% of the growth in retail asset management in Hong Kong [2][3] Group 3 - Chinese institutions have effectively leveraged their understanding of domestic investors' needs and preferences, leading to a competitive edge in the market [6][7] - The report notes that non-equity asset allocation has increased, with 59% of managed assets invested in non-stock categories, driven by proactive strategies and policy benefits [9][10] - The future growth of Chinese institutions is expected to be fueled by the optimization of interconnection mechanisms, continuous innovation, and advancements in technology [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth of Hong Kong's asset and wealth management industry, driven by Chinese institutions, which have outperformed the industry average for five consecutive years, with a management scale reaching 3.09 trillion HKD and a net inflow increase of 68% [1][3][7]. Group 1: Market Growth and Drivers - As of the end of 2024, Hong Kong's asset and wealth management business is projected to grow by 13% to 35.14 trillion HKD, with a net inflow surge of 81% to 705 billion HKD [3][4]. - The growth is attributed to three main factors: the appreciation of existing assets, global capital rebalancing, and policy optimization [3][4]. - The Hang Seng Index rose by 18% over the past year, and the Chinese dollar bond index increased by 12%, boosting the net value of existing assets [3][4]. Group 2: Chinese Institutions' Performance - Chinese institutions have shown remarkable performance, with a management scale growth of 15% to 3.09 trillion HKD, and a 25% increase since 2020 [7][8]. - The success of Chinese institutions is linked to their deep understanding of domestic investors' needs and their ability to innovate in offshore RMB products [7][9]. - The net inflow for Chinese institutions reached 256 billion HKD, reflecting their dominant role in the cross-border financial mechanisms [9]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Asset Allocation - As of December 31, 2024, 58% of assets managed in Hong Kong are allocated to non-equity assets, with 59% of these investments in non-stock asset categories [11][12]. - The increase in non-equity asset allocation is driven by proactive strategies, including capturing policy benefits and innovating fixed-income products [11][12]. - Chinese institutions are focusing on low-volatility asset construction, providing tailored investment solutions that align with domestic investors' risk preferences [12]. Group 4: Future Development and Opportunities - Future growth for Chinese institutions is expected to stem from optimizing cross-border mechanisms, maintaining innovation, and leveraging advanced technologies like blockchain and AI [14][15]. - The expansion of cross-border financial products, such as the ETF and wealth management programs, is anticipated to enhance the inflow of capital and diversify investment options [14][15]. - The article suggests that the mutual recognition of ETFs should be expanded to position Hong Kong as a global asset allocation hub [15].

编者按：7月21日，小摩发布研究报告指出，对于 2025 年下半年，预计在恒生指数上半年取得 18% 的 美元回报率且相对亚太除日本指数跑赢约 5% 之后，短期内会出现盘整，原因包括不确定的关税风险、 美联储不太可能降息的前景、不及预期的刺激政策以及 8 月疲软的季节性因素。这种潜在的疲软将是一 个买入机会，因为强劲的股票市场融资、南向资金流入以及稳定币领域的创新可能会推动 EPS 修正。 指数目标：将 2025 年底恒生指数的基准 / 乐观 / 悲观目标从之前的 11,600/12,400/10,300 港元上调至 13,000/14,000/11,000 港元，对应回报率分别为 2%/10%/-14%。 中小盘股首选：美高梅中国和中国建筑国际。 | RIC Code | Security Name | CN Name | GICS Sector | Analyst | JPM rating | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Large caps | | | | | | | 1299.HK | AIA Group Ltd | 友邦保险 | Financial ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) is actively collaborating with mainland regulatory bodies to incorporate a Renminbi (RMB) stock trading counter into the Stock Connect program, aiming to enhance cross-border investment opportunities and facilitate RMB internationalization [1][4]. Group 1: RMB Trading Counter Implementation - The SFC plans to announce implementation details for the RMB stock trading counter soon, which is expected to encourage more companies to consider issuing RMB-denominated stocks [1]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) launched the "HKD-RMB Dual Counter" model on June 19, 2023, allowing investors to purchase Hong Kong stocks directly in RMB, with 24 blue-chip stocks, including Tencent and Alibaba, participating [1]. - From June 19, 2023, to July 10, 2025, the cumulative trading volume for the RMB counters of the first 24 dual-counter securities reached approximately 50.116 billion RMB [1]. Group 2: Benefits for Mainland Investors - The inclusion of the RMB counter in the Stock Connect allows mainland investors to trade Hong Kong stocks directly in RMB, eliminating the need for currency conversion and associated costs [2]. - As of July 10, 2023, there are 550 stocks eligible for Stock Connect, with a total market capitalization of 66.36 trillion HKD [2]. - The RMB counter is expected to reduce exchange rate risks and improve actual investment returns for mainland investors by avoiding currency conversion losses [2][3]. Group 3: Impact on RMB Internationalization - The incorporation of the RMB trading counter is anticipated to accelerate the internationalization of the RMB, expanding its role in cross-border investments and enhancing pricing consistency for RMB assets globally [4]. - The HKEX is seen as a testing ground for various cross-border financial mechanisms, reinforcing its position as a hub for international capital accessing the Chinese market [4]. - Future developments may include the introduction of RMB-denominated bond futures and other tools to help investors manage interest rate risks [3][4].