► 文 观察者网 齐倩 报道称，近几个月来，中国稀土磁铁出口大幅下滑，全球汽车及其他高科技产品供应链因此受阻，欧洲 受到的影响尤为严重。尽管中国承诺加快审批速度，但在欧洲，稀土短缺问题依然持续存在。 托莱多称，总体而言，中欧间贸易和经济关系"不太明朗"。他还透露，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩和欧洲 理事会主席安东尼奥·科斯塔计划于下个月访华。 随后，托莱多开始"诉苦"，援引数据称，中国经济自2017年以来增长了40%，但欧盟对华出口却下降了 30%。他还声称，欧洲只是想要一个"公平的竞争环境"。 据彭博社6月25日消息，欧盟驻华大使豪尔赫·托莱多当天表示，欧洲请求中方理解欧洲企业的"恐惧和 顾虑"，磁铁短缺对欧企造成了"非常、非常严重"的影响。 托莱多称，欧盟希望中方可以在下个月解决对欧稀土磁铁出口问题。 今年4月，美国总统特朗普对华加征畸高关税后，中方迅速出手反制，包括对一系列关键矿产和稀土磁 铁实施出口管制。有业内人士透露，中方正在建立出口许可制度。随着管制影响显现，美西方企业哀 号"稀土荒"，开始联合媒体炒作所谓"稀土武器化"，企图展开对华舆论战。 对此，外交部发言人此前已明确表示，中方出台的出口管制措施符合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Taiwan's export control measures on its semiconductor industry, emphasizing the negative consequences of such actions on Taiwan's economic competitiveness and the importance of cross-strait economic cooperation [1] Group 1: Export Control Measures - Taiwan's economic authorities have included 601 entities in the "export control list," which affects major companies like Huawei and SMIC [1] - Concerns have been raised by investors regarding the potential impact of these export bans on Taiwan's semiconductor companies [1] Group 2: Response from the Mainland - The spokesperson from the Taiwan Affairs Office criticized the Taiwanese government's actions as detrimental to Taiwan's own economic interests and competitiveness [1] - The statement highlighted that attempts to block technology will not hinder mainland China's technological innovation and industrial upgrading [1] - It was asserted that any actions undermining cross-strait economic cooperation would ultimately harm Taiwan's economic development [1]

6月25日上午，国台办举行例行新闻发布会。记者：近日，台经济主管部门称，已将601个实体纳入"出 口管制名单"，其中包括华为、中芯国际等大陆芯片研发企业。有岛内投资者担心，相关"出口禁令"会 冲击台湾半导体企业。对此有何评论？ ...

国台办举行例行新闻发布会。近日，台经济主管部门称，已将601个实体纳入"出口管制名单"，其中包 括华为、中芯国际等大陆芯片研发企业。有岛内投资者担心，相关"出口禁令"会冲击台湾半导体企业。 对此有何评论？国台办发言人朱凤莲表示，民进党当局对于损台害台的关税霸凌，无底线卑躬屈膝、跪 地求饶；对于互惠互利的两岸经济合作，却屡下黑手，频施恶招，甚至把配合美国打压大陆企业作为向 美输诚、"倚外谋独"的"投名状"，种种卑劣行径令人不齿。我们将采取有力措施坚决维护两岸经贸交流 合作正常秩序，维护两岸同胞利益福祉。(日月谭天) ...

Group 1 - Xiaomi has applied for the trademark "XRING O2," indicating potential development of its second-generation flagship chip, "玄戒O2" [1] - The first-generation flagship SoC, "玄戒O1," was launched in May 2023, utilizing a 3nm process with ARM's latest CPU and GPU architectures [1] - Xiaomi's president, Lu Weibing, stated that flagship chips are challenging to develop and will primarily be used in flagship products, emphasizing the importance of chip capabilities for long-term differentiation [1] Group 2 - A Xiaomi store in Shanghai reported limited availability of the Xiaomi 15S Pro, which features the "玄戒O1" chip, with only two units in stock for the second batch [2] - Recent U.S. export controls on EDA tools to China may impact domestic chip design firms, as they may not receive further updates after existing contracts expire [2] - Despite the export restrictions, existing EDA/IP tools can still be used, but firms may face challenges in maintenance and support [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals sector as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The small metals market is experiencing a significant price increase due to limited strategic metal reserves, high extraction difficulty, and insufficient supply elasticity, coupled with rapid growth in downstream demand from sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and military industries. Geopolitical tensions and China's export controls on tungsten, antimony, and rare earths have exacerbated supply-demand conflicts, leading to a sustained upward price trend for small metals [12][15][17] - In May 2025, the overall non-ferrous metals sector saw a moderate increase, with precious metals (gold) and strategic small metals (rare earths, tungsten) leading the gains. The geopolitical situation has intensified, causing a decline in risk appetite in international financial markets, which has driven gold prices higher as a traditional safe-haven asset [12][15] Summary by Sections 1. Focus Areas: Supply-Demand Conflicts and Geopolitical Impact - The small metals market is currently hot, with prices rising due to limited reserves and high extraction difficulty. The rapid growth in demand from new energy and military sectors, along with geopolitical tensions, has intensified supply-demand conflicts [12][15] 2. Small Metals Price Increase Cycle and Strategic Resource Valuation - Small metals are experiencing a significant price increase, with tungsten concentrate prices reaching historical highs of 169,000 yuan/ton, and antimony concentrate prices increasing by 57.02%. The main drivers include limited reserves, high extraction costs, and increased demand from various industries [15][17] 3. Market Trends: Macroeconomic Sentiment Recovery and Non-Ferrous Sector Growth - The non-ferrous metals sector showed a recovery in May, with small metals leading the way. The report highlights the importance of monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and China's economic recovery [12][46] 4. Policy Changes: Global Policies on Key Mineral Resource Protection and Development - Multiple countries are implementing policies to protect and develop key mineral resources, including the U.S. signing a "mineral agreement" with Ukraine and South Africa launching a critical minerals strategy. China is also taking measures to combat smuggling of strategic minerals [13][27] 5. Key Industry and Company Developments - Harmony Gold's acquisition of Macarthur Copper for $1.03 billion and other significant mergers and acquisitions in the mining sector are noted. Companies are using diverse capital strategies to strengthen resource control and optimize capacity [14][15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **metal industry**, particularly **strategic metals** and **new materials** for the first half of 2025, highlighting the revaluation of strategic metals and opportunities in new materials due to technological iterations [1][3][29]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Strategic Metals Pricing**: By mid-2025, the pricing of strategic metals has fully reflected actual metal prices, influenced by global uncertainties and U.S. tariff policies [1][3]. - **Focus on Key Metals**: Emphasis on rare earth magnets, tungsten, and antimony, which have strong domestic resource control [1][3]. - **Export Controls**: China has implemented export controls on gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium to counter U.S. technology restrictions, leading to significant price increases in overseas markets compared to domestic prices [1][6][9][11]. - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: The supply-demand balance is expected to improve gradually, potentially shifting from surplus to shortage, which will drive prices upward [2][12]. Specific Metal Insights - **Tungsten**: - The tungsten quota has decreased for two consecutive years due to resource depletion, with demand linked to macroeconomic conditions and growth in sectors like 3C and military, pushing prices to historical highs [4][15][16]. - Current tungsten prices exceed 170,000 yuan per ton, with production challenges due to low ore grades [14][15]. - **Antimony**: - Antimony market is strong, with domestic supply accounting for over 60% of global production. The photovoltaic industry is a major driver of demand, expected to grow as installation capacity expands [4][17][18]. - **Molybdenum**: - Molybdenum prices are expected to remain high due to stable production and lack of new mining projects, with demand primarily from stainless steel and special steel applications [19][22]. New Materials Sector - **Growth Opportunities**: The electronic and military sectors are highlighted as key areas for growth in new materials, driven by advancements in AI and electronic components [5][23][24]. - **Technological Upgrades**: The demand for upgraded electronic materials is increasing, particularly for components like capacitors and inductors, which require smaller particle sizes and higher performance [23][24]. Geopolitical and Market Impacts - **China's Dominance**: China holds a significant advantage in the smelting of strategic metals, with over 90% of rare earth separation occurring domestically, despite U.S. technology restrictions [1][10][11][12]. - **U.S. Dependency**: The U.S. remains highly dependent on China for strategic metals, with significant portions of its tungsten, antimony, and rare earth needs met by Chinese imports [11]. Emerging Trends - **Military Sector Recovery**: The military industry is showing signs of recovery, particularly in aerospace, with increased demand for strategic metals [26]. - **New Applications**: The demand for tantalum, niobium, and titanium in high-temperature applications and aerospace is expected to grow, driven by advancements in technology and military needs [28]. Conclusion - The strategic metals market is poised for growth, supported by strong demand fundamentals and geopolitical factors. Companies in this sector, such as Jinchuan Group and Xiamen Tungsten, are recommended for their promising outlooks [29].

Core Viewpoint - The FDA has announced an immediate review of clinical trials involving the transfer of live human cells from American citizens to laboratories in China and other "hostile countries" for genetic engineering, indicating a shift towards stricter biotechnology restrictions against China [4][5]. Group 1 - The FDA's review is prompted by concerns that international transfers and genetic engineering operations may occur without patient knowledge or consent, potentially leading to the misuse of sensitive genetic data by foreign governments, including those of hostile nations [5]. - The Biden administration's data security rules set in December 2024 included export controls but allowed a "comprehensive exemption" for clinical trial biological samples, creating regulatory loopholes that permitted participation from Chinese-funded enterprises [5]. - FDA Commissioner Marty Makary emphasized the importance of the integrity of the biomedical research system and stated that actions are being taken to protect patients, rebuild public trust, and defend America's biomedical leadership [5].

随着以美联储为代表的海外发达经济开启降息周期，流动性充裕将对黄金形成利好;黄金具有抗通胀属 性，美国通胀预期升温背景下，黄金投资价值凸显，叠加关税不确定性仍存，增加黄金避险需求。另 外，全球地缘政治风险上升、大国博弈加剧，主要央行持续增持黄金储备等，都有望推动金价中枢进一 步上移。白银商品和金融属性共振，金银比存修复预期，银价具备更大向上弹性。 稀土供需格局边际改善，出口管制催化战略价值提升 "两新"政策驱动下，新能源汽车、家电等需求量有望增长，进而带来稀土永磁材料需求增加。人形机器 人落地加速，有望打开稀土永磁材料长期成长空间。国内稀土开采总量控制指标增速放缓，缅甸稀土矿 进口情况虽短期有所恢复，但雨季临近等因素导致后续进口情况仍不稳定，稀土供给端或难有增量。稀 土供需格局改善可期，稀土价格回升趋势有望延续。2025年4月，国家对中重稀土实施出口管制，有望 推动海外稀土价格上涨、国内稀土价格跟涨。 国联民生（601456）证券发布研报称，2025年一季度基金对有色金属板块配置比例环比提升1.07个百分 点至4.59%，铜、黄金和铝成为增配重点品种。多重因素催化金价上涨，白银有望迎来补涨;稀土供需格 局边际改 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - Precious metals are expected to perform well in the long term despite a recent pullback, with a recommendation to overweight this sector [5] - Copper prices are expected to remain strong, with a support level around 9,350 USD per ton, influenced by macroeconomic factors and trade dynamics [6] - Aluminum prices are anticipated to trend upward, supported by easing trade tensions and a decrease in inventory levels [6] - Rare earth prices are projected to rise following a significant drop in export volumes, with expectations of increased demand due to recent diplomatic agreements [7] - Uranium prices have seen a significant increase, with expectations for a new upward trend in the second half of the year [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4,846.95, with a weekly high of 5,047.03 and a low of 3,700.9 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price changes: Copper up 0.13%, Aluminum up 2.34%, Zinc up 0.86%, Lead up 0.13%, and Tin down 0.27% [20] - Precious metals experienced declines: Gold down 1.98%, Silver down 1.15%, while Platinum and Palladium saw increases of 4.08% and 1.69% respectively [20] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventories showed a decrease in Copper by 12,511 tons, Aluminum by 5,439 tons, and Zinc by 5,004 tons, while Lead saw an increase of 18,731 tons [34]