Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is waiting for the results of this Wednesday's meeting, with reduced price fluctuations. Crude oil prices are currently oscillating in the low - range of $60 - 68, and the medium - to - long - term downward trend remains unchanged [1]. - Supply - side pressure is continuously accumulating. If the OPEC+ production increase policy is implemented in July, the total increase will reach 1.23 million barrels per day, and the global crude oil surplus may exceed 3 million barrels per day [2]. - Geopolitical factors have high popularity but low pricing impact on the market. Although there are concerns about conflict escalation, historical experience shows that the impact on oil prices is short - lived [2]. - The market is currently in a weak balance, with geopolitical risks offsetting supply - side pressures. In the medium - to - long - term, inventory accumulation caused by OPEC+ production increases is difficult to reverse [4]. Summary by Directory Market Structure - The report presents the WTI, Brent, and SC forward curves and their respective monthly spreads, but no specific analysis of these data is provided in the given text [1][15][17] Supply - OPEC+ has been over - producing in May and June, and the market expects the same increase in July. Saudi's production policy shift has undermined the alliance's discipline. If the policy is implemented in July, the total OPEC+ increase will be 1.23 million barrels per day. US shale oil production is also at a historical high, and the global crude oil surplus may exceed 3 million barrels per day [2]. - Russia has extended its gasoline export ban until the end of June, which has a limited impact on crude oil exports but eases market sentiment [2]. Demand - Although the easing of Sino - US trade frictions has injected short - term confidence into the demand side, the certainty of OPEC+ accelerating production increases has put pressure on the fundamentals [4]. Inventory - The EIA predicts that global commercial crude oil inventories will exceed 5.3 billion barrels in the third quarter, with a year - on - year increase of 12% [4]. Geopolitical Risks - There are concerns about a potential conflict between Israel and Iran. If Israel attacks, Iran may counter - attack in three ways, but the probability of blocking the Strait of Hormuz is low. The US Navy's deployment has reduced market concerns about a continuous supply shock [3]. Operation Suggestions - The market currently prices downward risks higher than upward risks. If there is an unexpected breakthrough in the Iran nuclear negotiations, it may cause a negative impact; conversely, the outbreak of conflict will bring short - term upward momentum. In the medium - to - long - term, every rebound is a good opportunity to enter a short position [4].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Goldtrust Futures Daily" [1][2] - Report Date: May 23, 2025 [1] Group 2: Crude Oil Futures Analysis - **Core View**: On May 22, 2025, the crude oil futures market experienced a sharp decline due to multiple factors. From the supply side, some oil - producing countries unexpectedly increased production, with OPEC+ over - increasing production, some countries not strictly implementing production cuts, and the US shale oil production increasing by 1.6 million barrels per day. If Iran signs a nuclear agreement with the US, its production may exceed 4 million barrels per day and release oil reserves. From the demand side, global economic growth is weak, the US manufacturing PMI is below the boom - bust line at 49.1, China's refinery operating rate is only 80%, and energy structure transformation is accelerating, suppressing long - term oil demand. Investors should closely monitor the market and adjust strategies, and relevant enterprises should prepare in advance. The market should be treated with a volatile and bearish outlook [3][4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Different Futures Stock Index Futures - **Core View**: The index has reached a record high, and it is likely to experience high - level fluctuations [7]. Gold Futures - **Core View**: The internal and external gold markets have broken through a small platform upwards. It can be basically confirmed that the low point on May 15 is the end of this wave of adjustment, and the upward target is expected to reach the high point on May 9. There is resistance at a certain point, and the market should be mainly bullish in the future [11][12]. Iron Ore Futures - **Core View**: In May, the decrease in downstream exports and the increase in shipments have led to a large supply surplus pressure, and domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season. The weak reality increases the risk of high - valued iron ore. Technically, it is in a wide - range fluctuation, with a slight adjustment today, and should be regarded as a volatile market [15]. Glass Futures - **Core View**: The continuous increase in demand depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Technically, there was a large decline today, and the market should be regarded as a volatile one. Currently, the daily melting volume is low, the spot production and sales have improved, but the factory inventory is still high, and the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power [17][18]. PTA Futures - **Core View**: Fundamentally, the PX plant operating rate remains low, large factories plan to conduct maintenance in May, the spot circulation is tight, and the downstream polyester industry has poor demand, which suppresses the PTA futures price and makes it difficult to break through the pressure level. Technically, there are signs of a phased peak [20].

在经历了动荡的一天交易后，油价收盘微涨，投资者正在寻找有关俄罗斯-乌克兰停战谈判和与伊朗潜 在核协议的线索。 布伦特原油期货交易走高，收于65.50美元附近。西德克萨斯中质原油价格也上涨。美国总统唐纳德·特 朗普周一与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京通电话后表示，乌克兰和俄罗斯将"立即"开始就结束战争进行 谈判。 CIBC Private Wealth Group的高级能源交易员Rebecca Babin表示："我认为，由于预期如此之低，停火方 面的任何进展都被视为对谈判的适度积极影响，而对原油则略有看跌。也就是说，我仍然认为在伊朗问 题上，潜在的市场影响要大得多。" 与伊朗达成协议的不确定性也加剧了原油市场的波动。伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基安在伊朗国家电视台 的讲话中表示，德黑兰在任何情况下都不会放弃对民用核能的追求。他发表此番言论之际，伊朗和美国 官员之间的言辞在最近几天愈演愈烈。 投资者正在密切关注事态发展，因为放松对伊朗或俄罗斯的制裁可能会给今年面临供应过剩的全球市场 增加更多的原油。另一方面，更严厉的制裁可能会推高价格。 穆迪评级（Moody's Ratings）下调美国政府最高信用评级后，原油和其他风险资 ...

（原标题：刷屏！刚刚宣布，下调！） 【导读】国内成品油价格最新调整：汽、柴油每吨分别降低230元、220元 值得关注的是，此前国内92号汽油价格普遍在7元/升附近徘徊。在此次油价下调后，多地92号汽油将自 2021年底后重新进入"6元时代"。0号柴油亦有望进入2021年以来的低位水平，部分省份的0号柴油将低 于6.5元/升。 本轮油价调整落地后，今年以来国内油价共经历十轮调整。本次调价后，2025年的调价格局将变为"三 涨五跌两搁浅"。调价完成后，国内汽、柴油价格每吨较去年底分别下跌655元/吨和630元/吨。 卓创资讯成品油分析师王雪琴指出，本计价周期前期，市场担忧欧佩克+将提高产量且特朗普关税政策 将打击全球经济，原油价格延续前期跌势。但随着中美达成贸易协议且市场猜测欧佩克+未来存在增产 暂停的可能性，原油价格呈现偏强运行。不过，美国原油库存增加以及油市面临的过剩预期抑制油价上 涨步伐，原油价格出现反复。本计价周期初始原油变化率处于负值深位，虽然后期原油价格上涨带动原 油变化率负值范围回升，但幅度有限。 消息面上，美国总统特朗普5月15日在卡塔尔首都多哈表示，美国与伊朗就伊朗核问题全面协议条款达 成"某种 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/19 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | | | | | 2025/05/12 | 61.95 | 64.96 | 64.39 | - | 0.41 | -3.01 | 1.04 | 213.31 | 24.63 | 211.11 | 23.71 | | 2025/05/13 | 63.67 | 66.63 | 65.45 | -0.36 | 0.50 | -2.96 | 0.93 | 216.60 | 24.34 | 217.13 | 24.56 | | 2025/05/14 | 63.15 | 66.09 | 64.72 | ...

Group 1 - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi downplayed the prospects of breakthroughs in nuclear negotiations with the U.S., stating that no formal proposals have been received, leading to an increase in oil prices [1] - Brent crude oil rose over 1% to above $65, while West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to above $62, reflecting market reactions to geopolitical news [1][3] - The International Energy Agency reiterated that global production growth is expected to exceed demand growth this year and next, potentially leading to oversupply in the market [1] Group 2 - Westpac Banking Corp's Robert Rennie indicated that a potential agreement could increase Iranian exports by 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day, which is not significant, maintaining a price range of $60 to $65 for Brent crude in the coming weeks [2] - Israeli attacks on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen have raised concerns about broader regional conflicts, contributing to rising oil prices [2] - Oil prices have increased for the second consecutive week due to easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, despite a decline of over 10% this year due to trade uncertainties and OPEC+ production increases [2]

市场担忧伊朗可能达成核协议，地缘政治缓和继续推动石油供应前景宽松。周四，国际油价短线走低，WTI原油和布油均跌超3%。 此前，及其盟友上个月开始恢复自2022年以来暂停的供应。根据周三发布的月度报告，该组织4月份仅增加了25000桶/日的产量，远低于此前计划 的138000桶/日。该联盟将在6月1日的会议上考虑进一步增产。 油价下跌也受到美国原油库存增加的影响。政府数据显示，美国原油库存增幅创下自3月以来之最，终结了此前连续四天的上涨行情。 伊朗核协议预期引发油价下跌 据参考消息援引路透社5月14日报道，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊的顾问阿里·沙姆哈尼在美国全国广播公司14日发布的采访中表示，伊朗愿与美国达 成协议，以换取美国解除对伊经济制裁。 今年以来原油价格下跌超过13%。美国生产商表示，预计在年底前油价不会有太大变化。如果伊朗供应增加，可能会加剧今年晚些时候的潜在供 应过剩。 据，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊的一位高级顾问14日向美媒透露，伊朗准备在一定条件下与美国总统特朗普签署核协议，以换取解除经济制裁。据媒 体报道，特朗普15日称，与伊朗达成协议的距离非常接近。 受此消息影响，布伦特原油价格跌破每桶65美元，此前一 ...

麦格理集团预计OPEC+将在7月份继续增产，以惩戒那些超配额生产的成员国，并积极回应美国总统特 朗普对降低油价的呼声。麦格理能源策略师Vikas Dwivedi表示，预计OPEC+在7月份将原油日产量再提 高10万-40万桶，此前该产油国联盟同意6月份增产41.1万桶，超出预期，加剧了市场对于年内原油供应 过剩的担忧。OPEC推动增产旨在惩罚如哈萨克斯坦和伊拉克等"配额违规者"。OPEC的增产也可能促使 美国页岩油产区放缓扩张步伐。（彭博） ...

Group 1: SoftBank Group Performance - SoftBank Group reported a net profit of 517.18 billion yen for Q4, driven by strong demand in the artificial intelligence sector [8] - For the full year 2024, SoftBank's net profit reached 1.15 trillion yen, a significant recovery from a loss of 227.65 billion yen in the previous year [8] - The strong quarterly profit was attributed to increased valuations of startups and sales from its chip subsidiary, bolstered by robust data center investment plans [8] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.3% year-on-year in April, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, reversing the previous month's decline [2] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating a lower inflation rate than market expectations [2] - Analysts suggest that the data reflects ongoing inventory digestion by businesses and uncertainty in consumer economic expectations [3] Group 3: Automotive Market Trends - The average price of new cars in the U.S. reached $48,699 in April, marking a 2.5% month-on-month increase, the second-largest monthly rise in nearly a decade [4] - The increase in new car prices is linked to the effects of tariffs, with consumer panic buying driven by expectations of future price hikes [4] - Decreasing dealer inventories suggest that car prices may continue to rise in the coming months, posing challenges for both consumers and manufacturers [4] Group 4: Google Antitrust Issues - Google faces claims from dozens of comparison shopping websites in the EU, amounting to at least €12 billion, alleging that it misappropriated their customers [5] - These lawsuits stem from a 2017 EU ruling that fined Google €2.4 billion for abusing its market dominance, leading to ongoing legal challenges [5] - If the plaintiffs succeed, it could significantly impact Google's financial burden and provoke further legal actions from other companies [5][6] Group 5: Oil Market Outlook - Recent reports indicate that global oil demand has been weaker than expected, with inventories continuing to accumulate, raising concerns about a potential supply surplus by 2025-2026 [7] - Major investment firms have downgraded their oil price forecasts due to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance, despite some recovery in global economic activity [7] - The future trajectory of oil prices will depend on global economic conditions and OPEC+ production decisions [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates a weaker-than-expected global oil demand growth and a continuous accumulation of inventories, leading to expectations of a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 [1][7] - As of May 6, 2025, the average global oil demand was 103.5 million barrels per day, showing a year-on-year increase of only 280,000 barrels per day, which is nearly half of the expected growth of 550,000 barrels per day [1] - The first week of May saw a decrease of 4 million barrels in visible OECD commercial crude and refined oil inventories, although gasoline and diesel inventories fell by 6 million barrels, offset by a 2 million barrel increase in crude oil inventories [1][2] Group 2 - In the first week of May, total liquid inventories globally increased by 8 million barrels, with seven out of the past eight weeks showing increases [2] - The increase in crude oil inventories was primarily driven by a significant rise of 26 million barrels in China's crude oil stocks [2] - The overall liquid inventory has increased by 62 million barrels year-to-date until the end of April, with crude oil inventories rising by 102 million barrels and refined oil inventories decreasing by 39 million barrels [4] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has lowered its price forecasts for Brent crude to an average of $60 per barrel for the remainder of 2025 and $56 per barrel for 2026, reflecting a significant downward adjustment from previous expectations [5][7] - The expectation of a supply surplus in the oil market is shared among major financial institutions, with Goldman Sachs predicting a surplus of 800,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [7] - The recent trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have led to a temporary suspension of tariffs, which may improve market sentiment, but concerns about supply surplus continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices [8]