Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming adjustment in refined oil prices in China, indicating a potential significant drop in prices due to declining international crude oil prices [1][4]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - After the recent holiday, refined oil prices in China experienced a slight decrease, with expectations of a larger drop of 0.25-0.3 CNY per liter, bringing 92 gasoline back to the 6 CNY range [1]. - As of October 20, the average price of crude oil was reported at 60.14 USD per barrel, with a change rate of -6.69%, suggesting a corresponding decrease of 330 CNY per ton in domestic gasoline and diesel prices [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a larger-than-expected oversupply in the global crude oil market, leading to increased inventories and downward pressure on oil prices [4]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has stabilized with a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, reducing risk premiums and further contributing to the decline in oil prices [4]. - Despite the bearish sentiment, there are mixed signals from U.S.-China trade relations, with indications that tariffs may not be increased, providing some support for oil prices [4]. Group 3: Historical Context - In 2023, refined oil prices in China have undergone 20 adjustments, characterized by six increases, eight decreases, and six periods of no change [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and declined. The overall futures prices of oils and fats are likely to fluctuate and consolidate. The reduction period of palm oil and the market's expectation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy implementation support palm oil and soybean oil. However, warnings of crude oil supply surplus in 2026 and Sino - US trade tensions suppress biodiesel, putting downward pressure on palm oil and soybean oil. Domestically, soybean supply is sufficient before the end of the year, soybean oil inventory is high, and demand is shrinking, lacking the impetus for continuous upward movement. Attention should be paid to the impact of policy changes on the oils and fats market [9][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and declined. The Y2601 soybean oil contract fell 0.55% to close at 8,256 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract fell 1.38% to close at 9,308 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract fell 1.99% to close at 9,861 yuan/ton [5][31]. 3.2 Important Information - **Palm Oil**: From October 1st to 15th, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 12.3% - 16.2% month - on - month, alleviating market concerns about demand. Indonesia may raise the crude palm oil export levy to 15% to meet the subsidy funds required for the future B50 program, with the specific time undetermined. Malaysian palm oil fell 1.58% [7][31]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of the 2025/26 season, China has not purchased any US soybeans but has turned to Brazil, Argentina and other countries. Despite US soybean prices being lower than those in South America, due to the trade war and China's retaliatory tariffs (up to 20%), China's purchasing decision has become a political choice. US soybeans rose 1.39% this week [7][31]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of October 16, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [11]. - As of October 16, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,230 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [13]. 3.4 Other Data - As of October 10, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 23,000 tons to 1.438 million tons. On October 15, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 17,000 tons to 598,000 tons [17]. - As of October 17, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 7,188,210 tons [20]. - As of October 16, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 264 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [21]. - As of October 16, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 62 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [22]. - As of October 16, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 295 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [24]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - The content is consistent with the core view, emphasizing that the futures prices of oils and fats are likely to fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the impact of policy changes on the market [32].

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2025年10月19日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：供需趋弱，短期观望， | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 关注宏观风险 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | 观点 逻辑：1、中美贸易摩擦升温，市场悲观情绪迅速加剧，但APEC会议或反转；2、OPEC+增产仍在持续，季节性累 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply surplus and global economic slowdown concerns are pushing US crude oil prices towards the lowest level since the post - COVID - 19 recovery. The simultaneous increase in production by the US and OPEC has exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand in the market. Geopolitical factors, such as Trump's plan to meet with Putin again, have alleviated the risk sentiment in the crude oil market, accelerating the decline in oil prices. The Indian attitude towards stopping the purchase of Russian oil is unclear. The domestic crude oil has reached the lowest level of the year, and the short - term price is expected to be weak. The SC2511 contract is expected to trade in the range of 430 - 440, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump plans to meet with Putin to discuss ending the Ukraine war; Indian refineries may reduce Russian oil purchases from December; Saudi Aramco CEO warns of potential supply shortages if the industry doesn't increase exploration and investment [3]. - **Basis**: On October 16, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $63.51 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $62.11 per barrel. The basis was $28.63 per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending October 10, and EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 703,000 barrels. As of October 16, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.211 million barrels, a decrease of 1.9 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the long positions in WTI crude oil increased; as of October 7, the long positions in Brent crude oil decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term price is weak, SC2511 trades in the 430 - 440 range, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 3.2 Recent News - US WTI crude oil futures closed at $56.99 per barrel on Thursday, down 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021. In the past year, it has fallen by 19%. The increase in production by OPEC and the US has led to a supply surplus. Lower oil prices benefit US consumers but pose challenges to the US oil industry [5]. - US oil producers reached a daily production of over 13.6 million barrels in July, and it is expected to remain at this level by the end of the year [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: The Russia - Ukraine conflict threatens refineries and oil fields; Trump's tariff threat has eased [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The situation in the Middle East has eased; there is a risk of US government shutdown; OPEC+ is considering further increasing production [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have weakened, and there is a long - term risk of increased supply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: The prices of various types of crude oil have changed. For example, the price of UK Brent crude oil decreased from $63.13 to $62.08, a decrease of 1.66% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventory data from August to October show fluctuations in inventory levels. For example, API inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending October 10, and EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels [10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: The net long positions of WTI crude oil funds have changed over time. As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: The net long positions of Brent crude oil funds have also changed. As of October 7, the net long position was 147,400, a decrease of 61,713 [19].

来源：智昇财论 报告指出，原油市场自今年年初以来一直处于供应过剩状态。随着OPEC+国家的增产，中东地区的原 油产量上升，使原油过剩的产量进一步扩大。今年以来油价承压下行。 短期来看，油价略显悲观。但是油价降至55美元甚至更低，非欧佩克国家的原油将会受到生产成本的抑 制，产量将逐步下降，在没有更多产量增长的情况下，欧佩克可能会重新掌控原油市场。 技术面：日线收小阴线，日线级别，价格在相对低位运行。1小时级别，市场小幅整理，但仍是下降趋 势，价格仍在120日均线下方运行。今日下方关注57.20美元的支撑，上方关注59.50美元的压力。 美元指数：美国方面，昨晚美国财长贝森特表示，当前的美国经济增长，类似于19世纪末或20世纪90年 代，未来的经济具有韧性和可持续性。同时美国贸易逆差收窄支撑了近期美元小幅升值，今年美元的贬 值可能触底，与前期通过的税改法案相吻合。 欧元方面，法国持续的政治动荡加剧了财政不确定性，给欧元区的经济增长蒙上了一层阴影。同时欧央 行官员表示，法国不能只关注短期财政问题，必须找到切实可行的缩减赤字方案。 黄金方面：10月16日凌晨，特朗普表示，他认为美国已经陷入贸易战之中。在记者问到，如果 ...

Core Viewpoint - The OPEC+ production increase plans are steadily advancing, with a persistent outlook of oversupply continuing to pressure the oil market [1][2]. Group 1: Production Plans - OPEC+ has initiated a recovery plan to restore voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) starting in April 2025, with a subsequent joint reduction plan of 1.65 million bpd beginning in October 2025 [1][2]. - In October 2025, OPEC+ announced an increase of 137,000 bpd, with a further increase of the same amount planned for November [2][3]. Group 2: Market Impact - The accelerated pace of production increases, exceeding market expectations, has created a continuous bearish impact on the oil market, with cumulative production plans nearing 2.5 million bpd by September 2025 [2][3]. - The gradual increase in production by OPEC+ is expected to exacerbate supply-side pressures, leading to potential downward risks for medium to long-term oil prices [2][4]. Group 3: Discrepancies in Production - There is a growing disparity between planned and actual production increases, influenced by compensatory reductions from some oil-producing countries and capacity limitations [4][5]. - The actual production figures have often exceeded target production, leading to increased volatility in the oil market [4][5]. Group 4: Economic Context - The global oil market faces risks of sustained oversupply, compounded by weak energy demand and rising production expectations from other oil-producing countries, including the U.S. [5]. - Factors that previously supported oil prices, such as the de-escalation of international trade disputes and steady U.S. oil demand, have shifted, leading to bearish influences on the market [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - Overnight crude oil continued to trade weakly. Sino-US trade disputes showed no sign of abating, pressuring oil prices. IEA and OPEC released monthly reports expressing varying degrees of risk of crude oil surplus, further suppressing oil prices. Domestic crude oil has reached its lowest level this year, and there is still a risk of decline without geopolitical positives. Short-term trading is expected in the range of 440 - 450, and long-term investment should be on the sidelines [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Whether the US will impose a 100% tariff on Chinese exports on November 1st or earlier depends on China's attitude. IEA predicts a surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in the world oil market next year, while OPEC+ report is less pessimistic, stating that the supply gap will narrow in 2026 [3] - **Basis**: On October 14th, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $64.25 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $62.91 per barrel, with a basis of $19.58 per barrel, indicating a spot premium over futures [3] - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 2.78 million barrels in the week ending October 3rd, and EIA inventory increased by 3.715 million barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels. As of October 14th, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels [3] - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average is downward, and the price is below the average [3] - **Main Position**: As of September 23rd, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions. As of October 7th, the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions [3] - **Expectation**: Short-term trading in the range of 440 - 450, long-term on the sidelines [3] 2. Recent News - **Trade Tensions**: US threats to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese exports may not materialize. Trump expects to reach an agreement with China, and market analysts believe the threat may be more bluster than action [5] - **Oil Price Drop**: Oil prices fell to a five-month low on Tuesday. IEA reported a "large surplus" in crude oil supply, with an expected daily surplus of 3.2 million barrels from this month to June 2026. Despite OPEC+ announcing a small increase in production in November, IEA's prediction reignited concerns about supply surplus [5] 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Threats to refineries and oil fields from the Russia-Ukraine conflict; Trump's tariff threat subsiding [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Easing of the Middle East situation; US government shutdown risk; OPEC+ considering further production increases [6] - **Market Driver**: Short-term weakening of geopolitical conflicts, long-term risk of increased supply [6] 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: Brent crude oil settled at $62.39, down $0.93 or -1.47%; WTI crude oil settled at $58.70, down $0.79 or -1.33%; SC crude oil settled at 451.8 yuan, up 0.30 yuan or 0.07%; Oman crude oil settled at $62.74, down $1.16 or -1.82% [7] - **Spot Quotes**: UK Brent Dtd was at $62.82, down $1.53 or -2.38%; WTI was at $58.70, down $0.79 or -1.33%; Oman crude oil was at $63.26, down $0.99 or -1.54%; Shengli crude oil was at $60.60, down $1.73 or -2.78%; Dubai crude oil was at $63.64, down $1.41 or -2.17% [9] - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventory data showed an increase in US crude oil inventory, while Cushing area inventory decreased [3][10][14] 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 23rd, the net long position increased by 4,249 [17] - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of October 7th, the net long position decreased by 61,713 [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "Oscillating Weakly", including crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, propylene, PP, plastic, styrene, PVC. Some are rated as "Oscillating", such as PVC and caustic soda [3][7][8] Core Viewpoints - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure. Crude oil's fundamentals are continuously pressured due to the increase in supply and the weakening of geopolitical support. Most energy and chemical products' prices are affected by the decline in oil prices and the weakening of the macro - environment. New device investment news in the chemical industry also impacts market expectations [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - Crude oil futures have broken below the lower edge of the shock platform, and the global crude oil supply is expected to exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day in 2026, creating a record high annual surplus. The price structure of Brent and China's SC has changed to Contango. Chemical industry has new device investment news, such as 3 million tons of new PTA devices and 600,000 tons of new styrene devices, which may be put into production before the end of October [2] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - The IEA月报 slightly lowered the demand forecast and raised the supply forecast, increasing concerns about surplus. The global supply is in an increasing period dominated by the high - growth rate of OPEC + production, and there is pressure on crude oil inventory accumulation. Geopolitical support is weakening, and macro - risks are fluctuating [7] Asphalt - The asphalt futures price follows the decline of crude oil. The OPEC + group's production increase, the reduction of Saudi Arabia's export discount to Asia, and the cooling of the Middle East situation have led to a decline in geopolitical premiums. The supply of asphalt is increasing, and the pressure on inventory accumulation is still large [8] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both follow the decline of crude oil. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict is a negative factor, and the demand is still weak. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy, and the increase in supply [8][10] Methanol - Affected by the drag of olefins and high inventory, the price is in a shock - finishing state. The high inventory and the expectation of winter reduction still affect the price. The parking time of Iranian methanol enterprises in winter has been gradually extended in the past three years [2] Urea - The market sentiment has declined, and the price is under pressure. The spot price has increased, but the futures price has decreased due to the weakening of market sentiment [19][20] Ethylene Glycol - The inflection point of port inventory has appeared, and there is pressure on supply - demand expectations. The market is in a state of small inventory accumulation in the short term [13] PX - The decline in oil prices has led to the collapse of costs, and there is no new positive news in supply and demand. The supply side still maintains a high load, and the price is affected by cost disturbances [11] PTA - The news of new device investment has depressed market expectations. Under the resonance of cost and supply - demand, the price is under pressure. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the basis remains weak [11] Short - Fiber - Affected by cost, the price has decreased, but the supply - demand pattern is acceptable, and the processing fee has increased slightly [15] Bottle - Chip - The collapse of cost has led to the decline of price. The processing fee is relatively stable, and the export price has been lowered [16] Propylene - The cost has decreased, and the tariff game has restarted, resulting in a weak shock [25] PP - The support from the raw material side is limited, and the price has decreased. The supply is increasing, and the demand support is limited [24] Plastic - Affected by the decline in oil prices and macro - disturbances, the price is in a weak shock. The upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory, which suppresses the price [23] Styrene - There are still concerns about inventory over - filling. Although the supply - demand situation has slightly improved, the high port inventory is still a major pressure [13] PVC - The fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is in a shock state. The cost has decreased, the production has declined due to autumn maintenance, and the downstream demand is weak [26] Caustic Soda - The spot price has stabilized, and the futures price can stop profit when it is low. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but attention should be paid to future inventory replenishment and profit changes [27] 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - It includes cross - period spreads, basis and warehouse receipts, and cross - variety spreads of various energy and chemical products, reflecting the price differences and changes between different varieties and different periods [29][30][32] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific data are not detailed in the text, it is expected to monitor the basis and spread changes of chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. [33][45][57] 4. Commodity Index - On October 14, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index of the commodity index all showed a decline. The energy index also declined, with a daily decline of 0.75%, a 5 - day decline of 5.67%, a 1 - month decline of 6.59%, and a decline of 7.87% since the beginning of the year [274][276]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The current crude oil market faces multiple pressures such as increased supply, dim demand prospects, and cooling geopolitical risks, with weak fundamental driving forces [1]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut still exists, providing some support for precious metals. However, the market is at a high level with increasing divergence, so it's advisable to mainly observe [1]. - The fundamentals of coking coal lack support, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to factors like inventory changes and US tariff pressure [3]. - For manganese silicon, the cost support is acceptable, but the industry continues to be in a loss state. The demand is affected by trade frictions, and the price may have a downward space after the peak season [3]. - Steel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to general post - holiday demand, slow de - stocking, and insufficient cost support [4]. - For live pigs, the short - term pressure on the breeding end to sell still exists, and the space for a sharp rebound is small. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. - For palm oil, there is strong support, and it's advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities at low prices [5]. - For domestic soybeans, the situation of increased supply and weak demand continues in the short - term, but the downward space is limited, and it's advisable to try low - buying [6]. - For natural rubber, the current valuation is slightly low, and it's recommended to operate cautiously due to the greater impact of the macro - environment than the fundamentals [6]. - For PTA, the impact of short - term downstream demand expectations and crude oil on the price is large, and the benefits of maintenance are limited [7]. - For silver, it may fluctuate more in the short - term, and it's necessary to be cautious about chasing high [7]. - For medium - and long - term treasury bonds, the operation difficulty is increased, and it's advisable to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw and think in a fluctuating way [8]. - For methanol, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it's recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9]. - For glass, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it's recommended to wait and see until the price stabilizes after a pullback [10]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it's recommended to hold short - positions cautiously [11]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth to 3 million barrels per day this year and 2.4 million barrels per day next year, while demand is expected to grow by only 710,000 barrels per day and 699,000 barrels per day respectively. Russian crude oil exports reached the highest level since June 2023 [1]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible stop to balance - sheet contraction and another 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this month [1]. Coking Coal - The inventory of downstream enterprises decreased significantly after the holiday. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 74.95% (- 0.05%), and the coking coal inventory was 819.32 (- 69.15) [3]. Manganese Silicon - The national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 44.18% (- 1.50%), and the daily output was 29,490 tons (- 335 tons). The cost support is acceptable, but the industry is in a loss state [3]. Steel - On October 14, domestic steel prices continued to decline. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities was 3,224 yuan/ton (- 11 yuan/ton) [4]. Live Pigs - On October 14, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.48 yuan/kg (+ 0.1%), and the price of eggs was 7.60 yuan/kg (- 2.1%) [4]. Palm Oil - Indonesia may regulate the export of crude palm oil, and the B50 plan may reduce global edible oil supply. However, the short - term price trend is still supported [5]. Soybeans - Brazil is expected to export 7.31 million tons of soybeans, 2.06 million tons of soybean meal, and 6.46 million tons of corn in October, all higher than last week's expectations [5]. Natural Rubber - Thai raw material prices are firm, and domestic mid - stream inventory is decreasing seasonally. In September, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million for the first time in the same period of history [6]. PTA - The PTA load dropped to 75.4%. The new device of Xin Fengming was postponed due to low processing fees, and a new Indian device is planned to be put into production [7]. Silver - The IMF raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 to 3.2% (+ 0.2 percentage points) [7]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - Premier Li Qiang emphasized increasing counter - cyclical adjustment and expanding domestic demand [8]. Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, downstream demand has rebounded, and port inventory has accumulated. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Glass - The average price of float glass was 1,256 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton), the inventory increased by 5.84%, and the order days of deep - processing enterprises increased by 4.9% [10]. PVC - The PVC capacity utilization rate was 82.63% (+ 1.21%), social inventory increased by 1.84%, and the average profit of production enterprises was negative [11].

期货日报记者了解到，当前原油市场正面临供应增加、需求前景黯淡、地缘政治风险降温等多重压力。 正信期货原油分析师付馨苇表示，OPEC+增产导致原油市场供应压力增加。当前原油已进入季节性累 库阶段，在库存压力逐渐增加的背景下，油价下方支撑减弱。 "值得注意的是，OPEC+增产保市场份额的意图一直是悬在国际油价上方的'达摩克利斯之剑'。在10月 的产量会议上，沙特与俄罗斯对增产规模有分歧，沙特倾向大幅增产以争夺市场份额。"付馨苇说。 "首先，OPEC+决定于11月增产13.7万桶/日，以逐步取消此前165万桶/日的减产计划。与此同时，巴 西、圭亚那等国的原油供应量也在持续回升。其次，在全球石油需求进入季节性消费淡季时，中美贸易 摩擦升温加剧了市场对全球经济增长和原油需求的悲观预期。此外，加沙停火协议达成以及以色列开始 从加沙撤军，使原油的地缘风险溢价显著消退。"海通期货研究所原油研究员赵若晨说。 从宏观环境来看，付馨苇表示，美国关税政策朝令夕改可能使原油需求进一步下滑，而美国政府"停 摆"同样加剧了市场对全球经济增长放缓的担忧。 （文章来源：期货日报） 在申银万国期货原油高级分析师董超看来，本轮油价下跌是多方面因素 ...