香港金管局并不主动设定本地利率，而是根据市场需求注入流动性，HIBOR出现技术性下滑，属于机制内的可预期结果。 4月以来，港元对美元汇率以及香港银行间拆借利率（HIBOR）出现了显著波动，短端利率快速下行，引发市场对香港流动性状况与联系汇率机制运作的广 泛关注。 从联系汇率制度的基础逻辑看，香港金管局并不主动设定本地利率，而是根据市场需求注入流动性，HIBOR出现技术性下滑，属于机制内的可预期结果。 事实上，短期利率走低也有助于香港资本市场的复苏，尤其是在过去几年全球高利率压力下更是如此。考虑到当前中国香港市场风险偏好仍较为温和、资本 流入加速，预计香港金管局在流动性调控方面或将更注重循序渐进。叠加近期利差套利的趋势有所减弱，预计HIBOR将在未来数月内以渐进温和的节奏持 续上行。 多重因素叠加引发阶段性波动 4月以来，港元汇率与HIBOR出现阶段性剧烈波动。港元汇率于5月初多次触发联系汇率制度的强方兑换保证后反弹，6月26日反向触发了弱方兑换保证水 平。从近期市场运行轨迹来看，本轮港元汇率与HIBOR波动主要缘于三方面因素的叠加。 一是国际资本净流入。随着美国政策不确定性的持续抬升，全球风险情绪出现拐点，非 ...

先锋期货期权日报 2025-7-1 平值期权隐含波动率反映了市场对该品种未来波动的预期，数值越大越可能有大行情 （趋势交易者可以关注排名靠前的品种）；标的 30 天历史波动率则反映了该品种过去实际 的行情大小，数值比前者小意味着期权价格可能偏贵（期权卖方可以关注与前者排名的差 异）；而标的当日真实波幅则反映了该品种当日日内行情的大小（日内交易者可以关注排名 靠前的品种）。 期市有风险,投资需谨慎 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现，未来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下，我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任，投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下，我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/01 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/24 35 621 100814 22425 -1604.62 112.67 38.0 59.0 150.85 94675 40150 2025/06/25 20 674 100814 21470 -1355.85 110.21 38.0 66.0 100.69 93475 37225 2025/06/26 60 927 100814 23696 -3183.29 104.25 37.0 65.0 319.83 93075 36450 2025/06/27 105 1572 81550 25346 -2612.60 54.46 37.0 58.0 240.67 91275 33625 2025/06/30 130 1559 81550 25851 -1666.99 249.33 30.0 50.0 181.69 90625 32925 变化 25 - ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/01 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 79990 10059 7.97 三月 79680 9878 8.07 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.13 -1666.99 现货出口 1406.63 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22500 2770 8.12 三月 22445 2780 6.17 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.64 -1440.41 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20780 2598 8.00 三月 20495 2599 7.90 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.54 -1404.94 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119900 15025 7.98 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.23 -2486.93 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/01 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客 ...

免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 | LPG早报 | 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/01 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | 丙烷CFR华 | 丙烷CIF日 | MB丙烷 ...

王锴 金融工程组 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com. cn Z0016943 F03091361 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 1 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 p 截至6月27日当周，股指大幅上涨，中小盘股涨幅明显深证 成指周跌1.16%。当前股市主要依赖于宽松资金面和风险偏 好支撑，整体股市成交量明显回升。 p 从高频宏观基本面因子评分来看，期指方面，通胀指标7分， 流动性指标5分，估值指标10分，市场情绪指标8分。期债 方面，通胀指标7分，流动性指标6分，市场情绪指标9分。 期限结构方面，贴水的快速收敛或代表市场看多力量的增强， 也和季末纠正风格漂移有关，预计随着换季中性策略在获得 低对冲成本后再度增加，贴水有望重新加深。 p 金融衍生品量化CTA策略上周净值上升0.35%。主要为周 四和周五持有TF多头。长周期，工业企业利润回落，对于 IC和IF产生一定压力，但是整体影响权重并不大。短周期方 面，随着美元震荡下行，利差和汇率压力下降，资金面对于 期指的影响权重持续上升。地产中的二手房数据持续走弱， 高频经济数据仍然相对看好IC和IM。持仓量方面，市场整 ...

qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq 股指期货市场概况 从整体表现来看，上周四大期指主力合约均上涨，中证 1000 期指涨幅最大，幅度为 5.49%，上证 50 期指涨幅最小， 幅度为 1.27%。上周四大期指主力合约贴水均收窄。IF、IC、IM 和 IH 期指均为贴水状态。 全部合约角度看，较上周而言，四大期指当月、下月、当季和下季合约的平均成交量升降不一，其中 IH 上升幅度最 大，为 7.98%，IC 下降幅度最大，为-4.93%。四大期指上周最后一个交易日的合计持仓量均上升，其中 IH 上升幅度 最大，为 30.34%，IM 上升幅度最小，为 9.50%。 基差水平方面，截至上周最后一个交易日收盘，IF、IC、IM 和 IH 当季合约的年化基差率分别为-4.84%、-8.50%、- 11.12%和-4.28%，较上周最后一个交易日，四大期指贴水幅度均有所收窄。 跨期价差方面，截至上周五收盘，IF、IC、IM和IH当月合约与下月合约的跨期价差率分别处在2019年以来的63.90%、 58.80%、76.50%和 64.00%分位数。四大期指当月合约与下月、当季、下季的价差率均处于历史分布常态位置。 正 ...

先锋期货期权日报 2025-6-30 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现，未来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下，我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任，投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下，我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | ps2508 | 2.6% | 1 | 2.2% | 2 | 3.8% | 1 | | sc2508 | 2.4% | 2 | 3.3% | 1 | 2.9% | 5 | | si2508 | 2.3% | 3 | 1.7% | 9 | 3.3% | 2 | | lc2508 | 1.9% | 4 | 1.3% | 15 | 2.7% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is in a tight balance with low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the S232 investigation results are released, the market logic may reverse [1]. - The aluminum market has a short - term stable fundamental situation, with supply and demand expected to be balanced in July. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. - The zinc market maintains a short - selling strategy, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. - For nickel, continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. - The lead market is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, with a slight decrease in supply and weak demand in July [7]. - The tin market can hold long positions cautiously in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long term [10]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to be strong in the short term and will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the medium - to - long term [13]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to continue to face supply surplus and price pressure next week, but the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 45, the LME inventory decreased by 1,800 tons, and the LME cash - 3M spread changed significantly [1]. - **Market Situation**: The S232 investigation on copper is pending. The US has siphoned a large amount of electrolytic copper, leading to low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the investigation results are released, the market logic may change [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 280, and the social inventory remained stable [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increased slightly in 1 - 5 months. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The market is in a balanced state in terms of supply and demand, and attention should be paid to low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the zinc price fluctuated upward. The domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the import TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton. The LME inventory decreased by 625 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to increase in July. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is also weak. The short - selling strategy remains unchanged, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 450, and the LME inventory increased by 78 tons [4]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains high, and the demand is weak. The inventory in overseas nickel plates is stable, and the domestic inventory decreases slightly. Continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The price of waste stainless steel remained stable from June 23 - 27. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Market Situation**: The supply decreased due to production cuts in some steel mills since late May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lead price rebounded from a low level. The LME inventory increased by 175 tons [7]. - **Market Situation**: The supply side has some problems, and the demand side is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, and there is a risk of a price - support cycle if the price remains above 17,200 [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the tin price fluctuated upward. The LME inventory increased by 60 tons [10]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is affected by the situation in Myanmar, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand in the first half of the year. Cautiously hold long positions in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long term [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The base difference strengthened, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction [13]. - **Market Situation**: The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, it will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lithium carbonate price increased due to sentiment speculation. The base difference weakened, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased [15]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to continue to be in surplus next week, and the price is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15].

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/30 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 80110 10134 7.81 三月 79760 9894 8.09 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.15 -2612.60 现货出口 1836.25 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22590 2765 8.17 三月 22345 2765 6.23 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.65 -1338.95 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20890 2579 8.10 三月 20480 2579 7.99 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.55 -1159.58 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119900 14975 8.01 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.25 -2723.01 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人 ...