Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next round of upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - **Copper**: The tight pattern of US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the macro - level benefits have been digested, so aluminum prices are oscillating [1]. - **Alumina**: With still a small profit in production, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and both production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Recently, attention should be paid to the cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown has reached the longest historical record, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the short - squeeze movement has driven zinc prices higher. However, considering the domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Nickel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has recently restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the approval of nickel - ore quotas in 2026. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. It is recommended to trade within a short - term range, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel will continue [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the progress of the approval of Indonesian nickel - ore quotas, and the premium at the ore end is currently stable. The price of raw - material ferronickel has weakened slightly, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the steel mills' production plan for October is stable. Macro - sentiment is fluctuating, steel mills have recently lifted price limits, and stainless - steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to trade short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies [1]. - **Tin**: Recently, the positive macro - sentiment has been digested. Considering that the raw - material end of tin has not recovered and the new - quality demand is expected to be good, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the long - term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Judges of the high - court generally question the legitimacy of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty and supporting precious - metal prices. However, the resilience of US economic data has disrupted the interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production capacity in the northwest is continuously resuming, the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In the long - term, there is an expectation of production - capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, the terminal installation will increase marginally. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about the potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro - sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. It is advisable to participate in the out - of - the - money accumulative put option strategy [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect of the industry is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Similarly, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month production is restricted, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1]. - **Sulfur**: The direct demand is good, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure, with limited price rebound space [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal is struggling near the previous high, repeatedly testing the support. The high point of the coke futures price has included the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the actual three - round price increase has been delayed, and the game is intense. Based on the tight supply, coke and coking coal are relatively strong, but considering the weakening of steel prices and the potential weakening of steel demand in November, the futures prices of coke and coking coal are likely to return to the oscillating range after a false breakout. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is still advisable to go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, palm oil still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports. However, starting from November, Malaysia enters the traditional production - reduction cycle. If export data improve significantly, it may trigger a staged rebound [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: According to the China - US negotiation agreement, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, which may bring a loose expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The actual impact needs to be observed [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders has brought the expectation of Sino - Canadian relaxation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed has put pressure on the futures price [1]. - **Cotton**: Although the production capacity in Xinjiang is expanding, the production capacity in the inland may decrease marginally. At the same time, due to the thinning of spinning profits in Xinjiang, the operating rate may also be affected. The contradiction between the expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity and the reduction of spinning profits makes the cotton demand in the new year highly uncertain. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but under the background of a record - high production of new crops, the basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Typhoons before and after the National Day have had an adverse impact on the sugar - cane harvest and production in South China. There is a seasonal upward impetus for sugar prices in the short term. In the medium - term, considering the good growth of sugar cane this year, the rebound space after the new - sugar listing is expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the domestic futures price is undervalued. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost of US soybeans is expected to rise, and the domestic futures price is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current loose supply of domestic soybean - meal spot and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The current trading logic of paper pulp is related to the trading of old warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread between the November and January contracts [1]. - **Log**: The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: In the past half - month, the spot price has risen alternately in the north and south due to secondary fattening, frozen - product storage, and reluctance to sell, which has postponed the production capacity. There is still pressure on the November slaughter. In the short term, the futures price is at the same level as the spot price, and the futures price will follow the spot price to stabilize and then weaken [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the suspension of some China - US trade - tariff policies has eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong support from raw - material costs, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The decline of crude - oil prices has reduced the cost support of butadiene, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. High - production and high - inventory have not suppressed the price, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The gasoline cracking price has risen above $15, prompting refineries to increase gasoline production and reduce the feed of aromatic - hydrocarbon units. Overseas device failures and the decline of the operating load of some domestic reforming units, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in domestic PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline of crude - oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise of coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and the domestic demand has not significantly declined [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The rebound of PTA prices has strengthened the basis of short - fiber. Short - fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the number of styrene - device overhauls has gradually increased, and crude - oil prices have continued to fall [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from anti - involution and cost - end factors [1]. - **PE**: Under high - supply, the inventory pressure is large, the intensity of overhauls has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, but the peak season is not prosperous [1]. - **PP**: The support from overhauls is limited, and the new - device production has increased the supply pressure. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals, showing a weak - oscillating trend [1]. - **PVC**: The overhauls have decreased compared with the previous period, and the new production capacity has been released, increasing the supply pressure. The rise of coal prices has strengthened the cost support of PVC [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent concentration of overhauls will decrease, the high - concentration caustic soda is at a negative premium, the absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices have weakened, the valuation of the domestic LPG futures price has been repaired, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable due to short - term cooling and chemical rigid demand [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: The positive macro - sentiment has been gradually digested, the expectation of price increases in the peak season has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends across different commodity sectors, with factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and policy changes influencing prices. For example, the Fed's interest rate decisions, Sino - US trade negotiations, and seasonal production patterns all play significant roles [3][4]. - Different commodities have distinct investment outlooks. Some are expected to be bullish in the short - term or long - term, while others are likely to be bearish or range - bound. For instance, gold may have short - term volatility but is supported by the de - dollarization logic, while some energy and chemical products may face supply - driven downward pressure in the long run [4][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: After a sharp decline in price, it is recommended to buy on dips as the short - term trend is a pull - back after hitting a new high. The Fed's rate cut and Sino - US relations, along with LME's position limits, have affected the market [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to be oscillating strongly. With a warm domestic macro - environment, eased Sino - US trade friction, and overseas power supply issues, it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. - **Alumina**: The price is expected to decline as it returns to the fundamental surplus logic. However, the spot price shows signs of stabilizing. Buying call options on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to the main position changes [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price is expected to be strong due to high spot demand. High - frequency monitoring of inventory and warehouse receipt changes is recommended, and chasing long positions should be done with caution [5]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, considering factors such as the Fed's rate cut, Sino - US relations, and LME's position limits [5]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to have significant short - term volatility. Buying on support levels is recommended, and silver long positions should be reduced. The de - dollarization logic remains, but market reactions to the Fed's decisions and Sino - US negotiations are complex [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Hold long positions, with the RB01 reference range of 3060 - 3130 yuan/ton. The overall supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is significant structural differentiation [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Hold long positions, with the I01 reference range of 780 - 810 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is marginally neutral - strong, and the inventory build - up may be slower than the historical average [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the JM01 reference range of 1270 - 1320 yuan/ton. The futures valuation is high, and there is an expectation of production contraction [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are short - term bullish, focusing on trade negotiations. The domestic market is range - bound, following the cost side. Attention should be paid to tariff policy progress [8]. - **Corn**: The futures price is expected to be oscillating weakly due to factors such as damaged grain quality in North China, new grain listing pressure, and production cost reduction [8]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils are bearish with structural differences. An anti - spread strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to production areas' output and biodiesel policies [8]. - **Cotton**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with a range - bound strategy between 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton, considering factors such as the strength of the US dollar and Sino - US trade negotiations [8]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound as the pressure eases [9]. - **Pigs**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound with improved demand and reduced second - fattening [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Short positions or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered on rallies [10]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. Short positions or anti - spreads are recommended [10]. - **PTA**: The medium - term supply - demand pattern is improving. Long positions are recommended, and shorting the processing margin on rallies is advisable [10]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to have a short - term pull - back and a medium - term range - bound trend. Band - trading is recommended [11]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. An anti - spread strategy is recommended [11]. - **PP**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Short positions or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered on rallies [11]. - **MEG**: In the long - term, there is a large inventory build - up pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended [11]. - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it is expected to be oscillating. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and attention should be paid to the reduction of Russian oil exports [11]. - **Styrene**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Shorting on rallies or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand is balanced, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [12].

Core Viewpoint - The platinum market is experiencing significant price volatility, driven by potential changes in U.S. mineral policies and the risk of tariffs under Section 232, which could lead to soaring platinum prices [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - Platinum prices surged by 6.4% to $1,646.03 per ounce, marking the largest intraday increase since 2020 [1]. - In October, platinum spot prices reached a 12-year high, with a 60% increase since May, outperforming gold and silver [1]. - The price difference between platinum spot contracts and futures widened unusually, with a premium of $53.45 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - There is a rush for physical platinum, similar to the recent silver market situation, indicating a tightening market [2]. - Dan Ghali from TD Securities noted that the platinum market is becoming "extremely tight," raising concerns about a potential "silver-like" squeeze [2]. - Despite a record export of approximately 140,000 ounces of platinum products from China last month, liquidity in the platinum system is under pressure [2]. Group 3: Policy and Supply Risks - Deutsche Bank highlighted that platinum and palladium are likely candidates for tariff actions due to concentrated supply chains and geopolitical risks [3]. - The overdue report from the U.S. Commerce Secretary will assess the national security implications of key mineral imports, including platinum and palladium [3]. - Potential trade restrictions could exacerbate existing supply tightness in the platinum market, with leasing rates above normal levels and rising operational costs for industrial users [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc rebounded strongly and then adjusted slightly. Optimistic macro - sentiment has been digested, overseas squeeze - out risk has decreased, and approaching important domestic and Fed meetings led to profit - taking by funds, resulting in a slight correction of zinc prices. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, awaiting macro guidance [3][4]. - Fundamentally, the focus is on overseas squeeze - out disturbances. The domestic fundamentals remain weak, with stable zinc ore production, rising processing fees, high production loads of refined zinc smelters, and slow inventory accumulation [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - The price of SHFE zinc rose from 22,295 yuan/ton on July 18th to 22,885 yuan/ton on July 25th, an increase of 590 yuan/ton. The price of LME zinc rose from 2,824 dollars/ton to 2,829 dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 7.89 to 8.09, an increase of 0.19 [5]. - As of July 25th, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,325 tons to 115,775 tons, while SHFE inventory increased by 4,789 tons to 59,419 tons. As of July 24th, social inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 9.83 million tons [5][7]. 2. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc ZN2509 rebounded strongly and then adjusted slightly, closing at 22,885 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2.65%. LME zinc broke through the 2,800 dollars/ton level, then its upward trend slowed down, closing at 2,829 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.18% [6]. - In the spot market, zinc price rebounds led to weakened downstream purchasing power, and spot premiums remained weak. There was inventory accumulation in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin due to normal arrivals and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [7]. - In the macro - aspect, the US manufacturing PMI fell into contraction, but overall business activity expanded rapidly. The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased for the sixth consecutive week, and the number of continuing jobless claims remained at a high level since 2021. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged, and the September interest - rate cut expectation dropped sharply [8][9]. 3. Industry News - In August, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,950 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/metal ton; the average imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 55.97 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.65 dollars/dry ton [12]. - Glencore will sell its Lady Loretta zinc mine and related land, and its zinc mine operation will shut down at the end of 2025, which may cause a 1/3 reduction in Mount Isa's lead - zinc concentrate production [12]. - Teck Resources' Dog mine shipping season started on July 11th, and the quarterly Red Dog zinc concentrate sales volume was 3.51 [12]. - MMG's zinc ore production in the second quarter of 2025 was 56,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. South 32's zinc concentrate production in the second quarter of 2025 was 10,600 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 39% [13]. - In June, the imported zinc concentrate was 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.87% and a year - on - year increase of 22.42%. The cumulative imported zinc concentrate from January to June was 2.5339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.74%. The imported refined zinc in June was 36,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35% and a year - on - year increase of 3.24%. The cumulative imported refined zinc from January to June was 192,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.53%. The exported galvanized sheet in June was 1.1312 million tons, and the cumulative exported galvanized sheet from January to June was 6.9232 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.23%. The exported die - cast zinc alloy in June was 622.15 tons, a month - on - month increase of 268.8%, and the cumulative exported die - cast zinc alloy from January to June was 2,979.8 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 34.06% [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report includes charts on the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, internal - external price ratios, spot premiums and discounts, inventory levels, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profits and losses, refined zinc production, refined zinc net imports, and downstream enterprise operating rates [15][18][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is in a tight balance with low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the S232 investigation results are released, the market logic may reverse [1]. - The aluminum market has a short - term stable fundamental situation, with supply and demand expected to be balanced in July. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. - The zinc market maintains a short - selling strategy, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. - For nickel, continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. - The lead market is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, with a slight decrease in supply and weak demand in July [7]. - The tin market can hold long positions cautiously in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long term [10]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to be strong in the short term and will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the medium - to - long term [13]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to continue to face supply surplus and price pressure next week, but the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 45, the LME inventory decreased by 1,800 tons, and the LME cash - 3M spread changed significantly [1]. - **Market Situation**: The S232 investigation on copper is pending. The US has siphoned a large amount of electrolytic copper, leading to low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the investigation results are released, the market logic may change [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 280, and the social inventory remained stable [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increased slightly in 1 - 5 months. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The market is in a balanced state in terms of supply and demand, and attention should be paid to low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the zinc price fluctuated upward. The domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the import TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton. The LME inventory decreased by 625 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to increase in July. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is also weak. The short - selling strategy remains unchanged, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 450, and the LME inventory increased by 78 tons [4]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains high, and the demand is weak. The inventory in overseas nickel plates is stable, and the domestic inventory decreases slightly. Continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The price of waste stainless steel remained stable from June 23 - 27. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Market Situation**: The supply decreased due to production cuts in some steel mills since late May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lead price rebounded from a low level. The LME inventory increased by 175 tons [7]. - **Market Situation**: The supply side has some problems, and the demand side is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, and there is a risk of a price - support cycle if the price remains above 17,200 [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the tin price fluctuated upward. The LME inventory increased by 60 tons [10]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is affected by the situation in Myanmar, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand in the first half of the year. Cautiously hold long positions in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long term [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The base difference strengthened, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction [13]. - **Market Situation**: The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, it will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lithium carbonate price increased due to sentiment speculation. The base difference weakened, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased [15]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to continue to be in surplus next week, and the price is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15].