Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc rebounded strongly and then adjusted slightly. Optimistic macro - sentiment has been digested, overseas squeeze - out risk has decreased, and approaching important domestic and Fed meetings led to profit - taking by funds, resulting in a slight correction of zinc prices. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, awaiting macro guidance [3][4]. - Fundamentally, the focus is on overseas squeeze - out disturbances. The domestic fundamentals remain weak, with stable zinc ore production, rising processing fees, high production loads of refined zinc smelters, and slow inventory accumulation [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - The price of SHFE zinc rose from 22,295 yuan/ton on July 18th to 22,885 yuan/ton on July 25th, an increase of 590 yuan/ton. The price of LME zinc rose from 2,824 dollars/ton to 2,829 dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 7.89 to 8.09, an increase of 0.19 [5]. - As of July 25th, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,325 tons to 115,775 tons, while SHFE inventory increased by 4,789 tons to 59,419 tons. As of July 24th, social inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 9.83 million tons [5][7]. 2. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc ZN2509 rebounded strongly and then adjusted slightly, closing at 22,885 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2.65%. LME zinc broke through the 2,800 dollars/ton level, then its upward trend slowed down, closing at 2,829 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.18% [6]. - In the spot market, zinc price rebounds led to weakened downstream purchasing power, and spot premiums remained weak. There was inventory accumulation in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin due to normal arrivals and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [7]. - In the macro - aspect, the US manufacturing PMI fell into contraction, but overall business activity expanded rapidly. The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased for the sixth consecutive week, and the number of continuing jobless claims remained at a high level since 2021. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged, and the September interest - rate cut expectation dropped sharply [8][9]. 3. Industry News - In August, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,950 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/metal ton; the average imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 55.97 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.65 dollars/dry ton [12]. - Glencore will sell its Lady Loretta zinc mine and related land, and its zinc mine operation will shut down at the end of 2025, which may cause a 1/3 reduction in Mount Isa's lead - zinc concentrate production [12]. - Teck Resources' Dog mine shipping season started on July 11th, and the quarterly Red Dog zinc concentrate sales volume was 3.51 [12]. - MMG's zinc ore production in the second quarter of 2025 was 56,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. South 32's zinc concentrate production in the second quarter of 2025 was 10,600 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 39% [13]. - In June, the imported zinc concentrate was 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.87% and a year - on - year increase of 22.42%. The cumulative imported zinc concentrate from January to June was 2.5339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.74%. The imported refined zinc in June was 36,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35% and a year - on - year increase of 3.24%. The cumulative imported refined zinc from January to June was 192,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.53%. The exported galvanized sheet in June was 1.1312 million tons, and the cumulative exported galvanized sheet from January to June was 6.9232 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.23%. The exported die - cast zinc alloy in June was 622.15 tons, a month - on - month increase of 268.8%, and the cumulative exported die - cast zinc alloy from January to June was 2,979.8 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 34.06% [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report includes charts on the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, internal - external price ratios, spot premiums and discounts, inventory levels, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profits and losses, refined zinc production, refined zinc net imports, and downstream enterprise operating rates [15][18][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is in a tight balance with low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the S232 investigation results are released, the market logic may reverse [1]. - The aluminum market has a short - term stable fundamental situation, with supply and demand expected to be balanced in July. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. - The zinc market maintains a short - selling strategy, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. - For nickel, continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. - The lead market is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, with a slight decrease in supply and weak demand in July [7]. - The tin market can hold long positions cautiously in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long term [10]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to be strong in the short term and will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the medium - to - long term [13]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to continue to face supply surplus and price pressure next week, but the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 45, the LME inventory decreased by 1,800 tons, and the LME cash - 3M spread changed significantly [1]. - **Market Situation**: The S232 investigation on copper is pending. The US has siphoned a large amount of electrolytic copper, leading to low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the investigation results are released, the market logic may change [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 280, and the social inventory remained stable [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increased slightly in 1 - 5 months. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The market is in a balanced state in terms of supply and demand, and attention should be paid to low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the zinc price fluctuated upward. The domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the import TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton. The LME inventory decreased by 625 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to increase in July. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is also weak. The short - selling strategy remains unchanged, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 450, and the LME inventory increased by 78 tons [4]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains high, and the demand is weak. The inventory in overseas nickel plates is stable, and the domestic inventory decreases slightly. Continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The price of waste stainless steel remained stable from June 23 - 27. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Market Situation**: The supply decreased due to production cuts in some steel mills since late May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lead price rebounded from a low level. The LME inventory increased by 175 tons [7]. - **Market Situation**: The supply side has some problems, and the demand side is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, and there is a risk of a price - support cycle if the price remains above 17,200 [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the tin price fluctuated upward. The LME inventory increased by 60 tons [10]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is affected by the situation in Myanmar, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand in the first half of the year. Cautiously hold long positions in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long term [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The base difference strengthened, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction [13]. - **Market Situation**: The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, it will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lithium carbonate price increased due to sentiment speculation. The base difference weakened, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased [15]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to continue to be in surplus next week, and the price is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15].