Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, suggesting to pay attention to the upside space of industrial silicon due to production cut news and the market sentiment fermentation of polysilicon [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to improve new - energy consumption capacity, which is crucial for the construction of a new energy system [1][3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2509 closing price is 8,030 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 772,679 lots and a position of 351,592 lots. For polysilicon, the PS2508 closing price is 33,315 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 294,743 lots and a position of 69,062 lots [1]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium or discount varies against different benchmarks, and polysilicon's spot premium against N - type re - feed is +950 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price**: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 is 8300 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 9900 yuan/ton, and polysilicon N - type re - feed is 34500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553 are - 3068 yuan/ton and - 6256 yuan/ton respectively, and polysilicon enterprise profit is - 6.9 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.2 million tons, enterprise inventory is 22.3 million tons, and total industry inventory is 76.5 million tons. Polysilicon's manufacturer inventory is 27.0 million tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes vary in different regions [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On June 26, the National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference. To improve new - energy consumption capacity, it will implement three measures: coordinating power transmission and local consumption, grid and regulation capacity construction, and energy supply and demand [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, and that of polysilicon is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3].

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the Shisanjianfang 750 kV substation project in Xinjiang is a significant initiative aimed at enhancing the region's power infrastructure and facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources [1][2] Group 1: Project Overview - The total investment for the Shisanjianfang 750 kV substation project is 1.326 billion yuan [1] - The project includes the installation of three sets of 1.5 million kVA transformers and the construction of 23.2 kilometers of new 750 kV transmission lines [1] - The project is expected to be completed and operational by December 2026 [2] Group 2: Strategic Importance - The project will optimize the 220 kV power grid structure in western Hami and alleviate power transmission bottlenecks [2] - It will accommodate an additional 7.7 million kW of renewable energy access, significantly increasing the region's energy consumption capacity [2] - The project is positioned to support the development of large-scale pumped storage power stations, thereby boosting the renewable energy sector in Xinjiang [2] Group 3: Technological Innovation - The project employs the first indoor GIS layout in Xinjiang, placing core substation equipment indoors to enhance operational safety in challenging environmental conditions [1] - This innovative approach offers advantages such as reduced land use, higher reliability, easier maintenance, and stronger resistance to electromagnetic interference compared to traditional outdoor layouts [1]

工业硅周报 光伏新政提振市场，工业硅触底反弹 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周工业硅触底反弹，主因国家发改委表示将统筹我国电 力外送、就近消纳及电网和调节能力建设等政策，持续推 进新能源高质量发展，极大地提振市场信心。供应来看， 新疆地区开工率维持7成，大厂减产进度缓慢，川滇地区 丰水期开工率小幅反弹，但增量却十分有限，供应端总体 偏弱运行；从需求侧来看，多晶硅市场成交较为有限，大 厂不敢盲目提高排产，二季度排产仍充满不确定性；硅片 市场下跌幅度较大多家企业联合减产挺价；光伏电池部分 厂商已动态调整产线，并采取以销定产的灵活策略；而组 件价格整体持稳但多数厂家下调7月排产，虽有分布式项 目的补装需求但整体终端订单表现疲软，光伏供给侧改革 仍在进行中，但发改委新政极大地提振市场情绪，社会库 存降至54.2万吨主因产量逐月下降，现货市场在发改委新 政的提振下得以企稳反弹。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F030799 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report offers trading strategies and trend analysis for various commodities. For example, copper is supported by a weak dollar; zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has a positive outlook due to peak - season expectations; nickel's upside is limited by changes in the mining and smelting sectors; stainless steel prices are recovering with limited elasticity; and lithium carbonate may continue to experience high volatility [3][6]. Summary by Commodity Base Metals - **Copper**: The weak dollar supports copper prices. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,920 yuan with a 1.31% daily increase, and the London copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,879 dollars with a - 0.17% change. Japanese JX Metal will cut refined copper production, and China's May copper ore imports decreased month - on - month [6]. - **Zinc**: It is at a short - term high. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,410 yuan with a 0.76% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [9][10]. - **Lead**: There are peak - season expectations supporting prices. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,125 yuan with a - 0.58% change. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [12]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's support from the mining end is weakening, and the smelting end limits its upside. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,480 yuan. Stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and prices are recovering with limited elasticity. The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,620 yuan. There are multiple industry news such as project startups and production resumptions in the nickel industry [14][15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: High volatility may continue due to fundamental pressure and warehouse - receipt contradictions. The 2507 contract closed at 63,240 yuan. SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased [18][19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is affected by production - cut news, and attention should be paid to its upside space. Polysilicon requires attention to market sentiment. The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon closed at 8,030 yuan, and the PS2508 contract of polysilicon closed at 33,315 yuan [21]. - **Iron Ore**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with repeated expectations. The 12509 contract closed at 716.5 yuan with a 1.56% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [24]. - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,995 yuan with a 0.98% increase, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,121 yuan with a 0.94% increase. There are changes in steel production, inventory, and demand [26][27]. - **Ferroalloys (Silicon Ferro, Manganese Ferro)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. Silicon ferro is boosted by spot sentiment, and manganese ferro is boosted by port quotes. The silicon ferro 2509 contract closed at 5370 yuan, and the manganese ferro 2509 contract closed at 5670 yuan [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both show a tendency to be strong with fluctuations. The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 847.5 yuan with a 3.42% increase, and the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1421.5 yuan with a 1.86% increase [34][35]. - **Steam Coal**: It stabilizes with fluctuations as daily consumption recovers. The ZC2507 contract had no trading, and previous prices showed a decline [39][40]. - **Log**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with a contract - main switch. The 2507 contract closed at 819 yuan [43]. - **Paraxylene, PTA, MEG**: Paraxylene supply is shrinking, and the month - spread is strong; PTA is recommended for month - spread reverse arbitrage; MEG is weak on a single - side basis. Paraxylene's 9 - 1 month - spread shows a positive trend, and PTA and MEG have their own supply - demand and cost - related factors [46][50]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It will run with short - term fluctuations. The main contract of cis - polybutadiene rubber closed at 11,275 yuan. The industry has inventory and price changes [52]. - **Asphalt**: It shows weak fluctuations, and long - crack spread positions should consider taking profits. The BU2507 contract closed at 3,577 yuan. Refinery inventory rates decreased [55]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The near - end fundamentals in the producing areas have limited improvement, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention should be paid to the US soybean acreage report [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal rebounds with fluctuations, and risks related to the USDA report should be avoided. Soybean No.1 has a stable spot price and a rebounding and fluctuating futures price [5]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to auctions [5]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound consolidation [5]. - **Cotton**: Optimistic sentiment drives the futures price to rise with fluctuations [5]. - **Eggs**: Gradually arrange short positions in far - month contracts [5]. - **Hogs**: There is a short - term adjustment [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the lower level [5].

2025年06月30日 | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：基本面承压叠加仓单矛盾，高波动或延续 | 4 | | 工业硅：减产消息扰动，关注上方空间 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注市场情绪发酵 | 6 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 观点与策略 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 30 日 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 120,480 | -350 | 2,200 | 560 | 530 | -9,550 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,620 | -15 | 115 | 70 | - ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the solid-state battery industry, with a focus on core process equipment such as dry process equipment and stacking machines [1][2]. Core Insights - The solid-state battery industrialization is progressing, highlighted by QuantumScape's announcement of a significant efficiency improvement in their production process, leading to a 76.67% increase in stock price [2]. - The engineering machinery sector, particularly tower cranes, is experiencing a downturn, with utilization rates dropping and rental prices continuing to decline [2]. - In the photovoltaic sector, while the demand remains weak, inverter exports have shown growth, particularly in Asia, suggesting a potential area of investment [2]. Market Overview - From June 23 to June 27, the mechanical equipment, electric power equipment, and automotive sectors saw index increases of 4.10%, 5.11%, and 2.88% respectively, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's increase of 1.95% [7][8]. - The battery segment within the mechanical equipment sector rose by 6.85%, indicating strong performance in this sub-sector [8]. Industry News and Company Announcements - The equipment manufacturing sector's profits grew by 7.2% from January to May 2025, significantly contributing to overall industrial profit growth [19]. - QuantumScape's integration of the Cobra membrane process marks a milestone in solid-state battery production, enhancing manufacturing efficiency [19]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is focusing on improving the consumption capacity of renewable energy, which may benefit related sectors [19]. - Companies like 凯盛新能 and 德福科技 are making strategic investments and partnerships to enhance their market positions in the photovoltaic and battery sectors [20].

Core Insights - The Mongolian West electricity spot market has officially started operating, marking a significant innovation in the integration of renewable energy into the national grid [1][2] - The market allows for both generation and consumption sides to participate fully, optimizing resource allocation and enhancing the efficiency of electricity distribution [2][3] Mechanism Innovation - The transition from a "planned scheduling" model to a "market pricing" model has revolutionized resource allocation in the electricity sector [2] - Over 90% of electricity from both generation and consumption sides is now participating in the market, leveraging the advantages of a large market to maximize resource optimization [2][3] - The introduction of a user-side spot price mechanism has allowed for significant cost savings and efficient load management for high-energy-consuming enterprises [3] Technical Advancements - The implementation of a "day-ahead clearing + real-time market + minute-level scheduling" model has improved the efficiency of renewable energy utilization [5][6] - The prediction error for renewable energy generation has decreased significantly, providing a solid foundation for effective energy management [5] Ecological Transformation - The electricity market is evolving from a competitive model to a collaborative ecosystem, enhancing the profitability of coal-fired power plants while facilitating renewable energy consumption [7][8] - The peak-to-valley price difference in the market has incentivized coal-fired power plants to adjust their operations based on real-time pricing, leading to improved economic performance [7][9] Future Prospects - The development of virtual power plants is being actively pursued, which will enhance the coordination between thermal power and renewable energy sources [10] - The successful cross-regional green electricity trading demonstrates the potential for further integration of renewable energy into the national grid, addressing consumption challenges [10][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 26, the J2509 and JM2509 futures contracts of coke and coking coal continued to strengthen, with the JM2509 contract showing a larger increase, recovering most of the losses since May 23 [5]. - Since early June, coke and coking coal futures have rebounded due to a significant decline in coking coal imports and further production cuts by coking plants. However, there may be a divergence in their future market trends. Coke prices may be restricted by the slow production cuts of steel mills and may not have a significant rebound in the medium term, while coking coal prices may be relatively strong driven by the tightening of imports [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 (Market Review and Future Outlook) - **Market Review**: On June 26, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1395.5 yuan/ton, up 1.86%, with a trading volume of 22,795 lots and a position of 51,299 lots. The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 819.5 yuan/ton, up 3.60%, with a trading volume of 870,999 lots and a position of 564,662 lots, an increase of 40,404 lots. The KDJ indicators of the J2509 and JM2509 contracts showed a clear golden cross the previous day and then rose in a divergent manner. The MACD red bars of both contracts continued to expand [5][8]. - **Future Outlook**: In the coke market, the production of independent coking plants has decreased significantly in the past two weeks, while the production of steel mills has increased. Port coke inventories are hovering near the lowest level since mid - March, and steel mill inventories have declined for seven consecutive weeks, while coking plant inventories have declined for two consecutive weeks from the highest level since early March. Tonnage coke profits have been in the red for five consecutive weeks, and the third round of price cuts for coke spot prices was implemented in early June, with further price cuts proposed in Hebei and Tianjin on June 20. In the coking coal market, the year - on - year growth of imports from January to April turned negative, but the absolute value of imports remained high. The inventories of raw coal and clean coal in coal washing plants have decreased after a significant increase. The inventory of independent coking plants reached a new low since late March, and port inventories are hovering at a low level since early August last year, while steel mill inventories are being depleted slowly. With steel mills still having relatively sufficient inventories, coking plant inventories are low, and coking coal spot prices are relatively resistant to decline [10]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - From June 23 - 24, Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out during a research trip in Hebei that efforts should be made to consolidate the stability of the real estate market and promote the innovation and development of high - end equipment manufacturing, intelligent photovoltaics, clean energy, and new materials enterprises [12]. - On June 26, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that as of the end of May, the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power generation in China reached 570 million and 1.08 billion kilowatts respectively, accounting for 45.7% of the total installed capacity, exceeding that of thermal power. It is estimated that the maximum power load during the peak summer period this year will increase by about 100 million kilowatts year - on - year. The NDRC has taken a series of measures to enhance power supply capacity, and the power supply and demand situation during the peak summer period this year is better than last year [12]. - On June 25, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment reported that as of the end of May, more than 80% of the country's crude steel production capacity had completed ultra - low emission transformation, and key projects for 170 million tons of coking and 30 million tons of cement clinker production capacity had completed ultra - low emission transformation [13]. - According to pre - disclosure information from Shandong Property Exchange Center, Jigang International Logistics Co., Ltd. is挂牌转让60% of the state - owned equity and creditor's rights of Shandong Baode Coal Co., Ltd. [13]. - Fujian Sansteel Minguang Co., Ltd. stated that in 2024, the company organized production and sales based on market benefits. The unit gross profit and sales volume were the lowest in the third quarter and the highest in the fourth quarter. From January to May 2025, the steel market continued the trend of the fourth quarter of 2024, and steel enterprises maintained a certain profit margin. In 2024, the company's iron ore procurement price decreased by 5.61% year - on - year, coking coal by 12.38%, coke by 14.73%, and the comprehensive steel sales price by 9.41% [13]. - On June 26, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.62 million tons, up 0.54% from the previous day, down 2.26% from the previous week, and down 20.28% from the same period last month [13]. - On June 23, the 2 unit of the 2×1000 MW ultra - supercritical coal - fired power unit of Shandong Energy New Energy Group Lingtai Power Plant was successfully connected to the grid. The project is expected to generate 10 billion kWh of electricity annually after the first - phase two units are put into operation, effectively alleviating the power supply and demand pressure in Shandong during the 14th Five - Year Plan period [14]. - On June 26, the Gansu - Ningxia section of the West - East Gas Pipeline Project IV was successfully put into operation, making the entire pipeline fully operational. The project has an annual gas transmission capacity of 15 billion cubic meters, equivalent to replacing more than 27 million tons of standard coal and reducing carbon emissions by about 50 million tons [14]. - Xiangcai Securities stated that since the beginning of 2025, the coal industry has undergone a reshaping of the supply - demand pattern, and the coal price center has accelerated its decline. Due to the continuous decline in coal prices, some coal mines have cut production. With the approaching of the peak summer period, coal prices are expected to gradually recover [14]. - Dayou Energy's subsidiary, Yima Coal Industry Group Mengjin Coal Mine Co., Ltd., resumed production on June 23 after an accident - related shutdown on May 15 [14]. - As of June 23, Ningxia Coal Industry had completed a "coal transportation from Xinjiang to Ningxia" volume of over 1.5 million tons, an increase of 896,400 tons compared to the same period last year, reaching a record high [14]. - On June 25, the first train of 3,328 tons of Mongolian coal from the Sino - Mongolian cross - border railway, coal trade, and coal mine capacity expansion project departed from the Tavantolgoi Station of the Mongolian Railway Company, marking a solid step in the implementation of the coal trade long - term agreement [14]. - Russia is open to increasing production again at the next OPEC+ meeting if necessary. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July [15]. - In May 2025, Russia's coal production was 34.709 million tons, down 3.8% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year. From January to May, the cumulative coal production was 180 million tons, up 1.6% year - on - year [15]. - India's coal production is expected to reach a peak of 1.53 billion tons by 2030. In the 2024 - 2025 fiscal year, India's coal production exceeded 1 billion tons for the first time, reaching 1.048 billion tons, a 5% increase from the previous fiscal year. In the first two months of this fiscal year (April - May 2025), the total coal production was 168 million tons, a 3.45% year - on - year increase [15]. - Japan may face a severe power supply crisis in 2050 if power demand surges, aging thermal power plants are not replaced, and nuclear power plants are decommissioned as scheduled. It is estimated that Japan's power demand will increase by 2 - 25% in 2040 and 8 - 42% in 2050 compared to before the COVID - 19 pandemic in 2019 [15]. - South Africa's Thungela Resources expects its coal production in the first half of 2025 to reach 6.4 million tons, slightly higher than 6.2 million tons in the same period last year [15]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - The report provides a series of data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the spot aggregated price of main coking coal in major markets, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants, the production and capacity utilization rate of steel mills' coke, the national daily average hot metal production, the coke inventories of ports/steel mills/coking plants, the tonnage coke profit of independent coking plants, the production and operating rate of coal washing plants, the raw coal and clean coal inventories of coal washing plants, the coking coal inventories of ports/coking plants/steel mills, and the basis between Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and the September contract, and the basis between Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal and the September contract [17][18][19].

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in China remains stable, supported by proactive macro policies and measures to stabilize employment and promote high-quality development [1] - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.2%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point improvement from the previous month [1] - Retail sales of consumer goods in May rose by 6.4% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate since 2024 [1] - Fixed asset investment showed steady growth in the first five months, with manufacturing investment increasing by 8.5% [1] Energy Supply and Demand - High temperatures in northern China are expected to increase the national peak electricity load by approximately 10 million kilowatts during the summer peak [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is enhancing electricity supply capabilities and has established energy supply plans for various provinces [2] - As of the end of May, the total installed power generation capacity reached 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.8% [1] Agricultural Production - Summer grain production, which accounts for about 20% of the annual grain output, is crucial, with over 90% being winter wheat [3] - Significant improvements in agricultural irrigation infrastructure have bolstered drought resistance, with over 100 million acres of high-standard farmland established [3] - The comprehensive mechanization rate for crop farming exceeded 75% by the end of last year, with agricultural technology contributing over 63% to production progress [3] Policy Support and Investment - The "Two New" policies have been reinforced, with sales of related products exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [3] - The first batch of special long-term bonds for equipment upgrades has allocated approximately 173 billion yuan to 7,500 projects across 16 sectors [3] - The NDRC plans to issue the third batch of funds for consumer goods replacement in July, ensuring the orderly implementation of the policy throughout the year [4] Renewable Energy Development - As of the end of May, installed capacities for wind and solar power reached 570 million kilowatts and 1.08 billion kilowatts, respectively, accounting for 45.7% of total installed capacity [4] - The utilization rate of renewable energy remains above 90%, with ongoing efforts to enhance the capacity for renewable energy consumption [4]

"今年以来，面对更趋复杂严峻的外部环境，我们坚持稳中求进、以进促稳，实施更加积极有为的宏观 政策，加快落实稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展若干举措，经济运行总体平稳。"6月26日，国家发展改革 委举行新闻发布会，国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超分析了当前经济形势，并围 绕"两新"政策成效、粮食生产、能源保供等热点问题回答了记者提问。 存量政策加快落地见效，新的储备政策陆续出台实施 今年以来，国家发展改革委会同有关方面加力扩围实施"两新"政策，以旧换新相关商品销售额已超1.4 万亿元。 设备更新方面，超长期特别国债资金支持力度为2000亿元。第一批约1730亿元资金，已按照"地方审 核、国家复核"的原则，安排到16个领域约7500个项目，第二批资金正在同步开展项目审核筛选。 从供给看，农业生产有序开展，工业服务业稳定增长。 5月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%，服务业生产指数增长6.2%，增速比上月提高0.2个百分点。 从需求看，消费投资持续扩大，出口保持较快增长。 5月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%，增速为2024年以来最高水平。前5个月，固定资产投资稳 定增长，其中制造业投资增长8.5 ...