1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU is rated neutral, NR is rated neutral, and BR is rated neutral [4][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, rubber prices rebounded mainly due to rainfall interference in major production areas at home and abroad, a slight recovery in raw material prices, and the support of the rubber cost - end, as well as the drive of the rebound of surrounding butadiene rubber. The supply side continued a slight upward trend, and the demand side had no obvious highlights. However, due to the good production profit of tire factories, there was rigid procurement of raw materials, and the operating rate also showed a slight upward trend this week. The expected increase in future supply pressure will limit the upward space [5] - This week, there were no maintenance or restart devices for butadiene rubber, and the supply side was expected to remain stable. The recent production losses have been repaired but are still near the break - even point, and it is expected that there will be no substantial increase in future output for the time being. With the restart of the previous maintenance devices of downstream tire factories, the operating rate of semi - steel tires rebounded month - on - month. Given the current acceptable production profit of tire factories, it is expected that the factories will have a strong willingness to maintain the current operating rate. However, semi - steel tire factories still face the pressure of increasing finished product inventory. The supply - demand contradiction of butadiene rubber itself is not prominent. From the perspective of surrounding price differences, the price of natural rubber is still higher than that of synthetic rubber, and the downstream tire replacement demand still exists. Future prices may fluctuate with the price of upstream butadiene raw materials [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures Prices**: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 14,030 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,280 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13,880 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,715 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,655 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 11,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - **Production Data**: In May 2025, China's output of rubber tire casings was 101.993 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [1] - **Passenger Car Market Data**: In May this year, the retail volume of the national passenger car market reached 1.932 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. From January to May this year, the cumulative retail volume of the passenger car market reached 8.811 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.1% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Price Differences**: On June 19, 2025, the RU basis was - 30 yuan/ton (- 20), the price difference between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 150 yuan/ton (- 10), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 6,922 yuan/ton (- 91.16), the NR basis was 22.00 yuan/ton (- 27.00); the whole latex was 14,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), the mixed rubber was 13,880 yuan/ton (+ 30), the 3L spot was 14,900 yuan/ton (- 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,715 US dollars/ton (- 10), the price difference between the whole latex and the 3L was - 900 yuan/ton (+ 50); the price difference between the mixed rubber and the styrene - butadiene rubber was 1,680 yuan/ton (+ 30) [3] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 68.75 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.95), the price of Thai glue was 57.75 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.25), the price of Thai cup lump was 48.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.65), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 9.45 Thai baht/kg (- 0.40) [3] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.39% (+ 2.69%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.54% (+ 1.56%) [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,278,303 tons (+ 3,253.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 606,975 tons (+ 1,410), the RU futures inventory was 193,070 tons (- 460), and the NR futures inventory was 34,876 tons (+ 13,003) [3] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Price Differences**: On June 19, 2025, the BR basis was - 170 yuan/ton (- 30), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 12,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 11,650 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,650 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 745 yuan/ton (+ 0) [3] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.32% (+ 1.30%) [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,820 tons (+ 610), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,950 tons (- 700) [3] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. For BR, also maintain a neutral stance [4][5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Japanese rubber futures have seen a significant increase, with the main contract rising by 2% to 303 yen per kilogram [1]

化工日报 | 2025-06-13 轮胎厂开工率环比回升 我国乘联分会发布的最新数据显示，今年5月，全国乘用车市场零售量达到193.2万辆，同比增长13.3%，环比增长 10.1%。今年1-5月，乘用车市场累计零售量达到881.1万辆，同比增长9.1%。 市场分析 天然橡胶： 现货及价差：2025-06-12，RU基差15元/吨（+5），RU主力与混合胶价差-15元/吨（-75），烟片胶进口利润-7639元/ 吨（-411.41），NR基差169.00元/吨（+68.00）；全乳胶13600元/吨（-300），混合胶13600元/吨（-230），3L现货14850 元/吨（-200）。STR20#报价1685美元/吨（-30），全乳胶与3L价差-1250元/吨（-100）；混合胶与丁苯价差1800元/吨 （-230）； 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13585元/吨，较前一日变动-305元/吨。NR主力合约11930元/吨，较前一日变动-285 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13600元/吨，较前一日变动-300元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13600元/吨， 较前一日变动-230元/吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions, important news, logical factors, and proposes corresponding trading strategies for natural rubber (RU), 20 - number rubber (NR), and butadiene rubber (BR). It takes into account various factors such as tire production line operating rates, inventory levels, international trade data, and global economic indicators to assess the market trends of different rubber varieties and provides investment suggestions accordingly. Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **RU Natural Rubber**: The price of the RU main 09 contract fluctuated during the period from May 20 to June 13, 2025, with the price range from 13405 to 14945 points. The prices of related products such as WF, Vietnam 3L blend, Thai smoked sheets, and local standard - two also showed corresponding fluctuations [1][11][15]. - **NR 20 - number Rubber**: The NR main 07/08 contract price also fluctuated, and the prices of related products such as smoked sheet rubber cargoes, Thai standard near - port cargoes, and Thai blend near - port cargoes had different changes [1][11][15]. - **BR Butadiene Rubber**: The price of the BR main 07/08 contract fluctuated, and the prices of related products such as Shandong - area Daqing Petrochemical cis - butadiene, Shandong private cis - butadiene, and East China market Yangzi Petrochemical cis - butadiene also changed accordingly [2][7][12]. Important News - **Automobile Market**: In May 2025, the national passenger car market retail volume reached 1.932 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. From January to May, the cumulative retail volume of the passenger car market reached 8.811 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. In May 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2]. - **Rubber Trade**: From January to April 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and compound rubber were 1.573 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.5%, and the total exports to China were 1.005 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38%. Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and compound rubber were 586,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15%, and the total exports to China were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 282% [24][49]. Logical Analysis - **Tire Production**: The operating rates of domestic all - steel and semi - steel tire production lines showed different trends, with changes in inventory levels. For example, in June 2025, the operating rate of the domestic all - steel tire production line was 61.2%, a year - on - year increase of 16.6%, and the operating rate of the semi - steel tire production line was 78.0%, a year - on - year increase of 3.0% [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory levels of domestic bonded areas and production enterprises had different trends. For example, in April 2025, the inventory of domestic large - scale enterprises' finished products increased by 3.9% year - on - year, and the inventory of Qingdao Bonded Area had both increases and decreases [3][16]. - **Climate and Other Factors**: The El Niño index and other climate - related factors had an impact on the rubber market. For example, in April 2025, the El Niño index was - 0.1°C, and its 5 - month average decreased by 1.8°C year - on - year, which was negative for the RU single - side [8]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: For the RU main 09 contract, there were suggestions of holding long positions, holding short positions, and waiting and seeing at different times. For the NR main 07/08 contract, there were also corresponding strategies such as holding long positions, holding short positions, and waiting and seeing [3][8][13]. - **Arbitrage**: For combinations such as RU2509 - NR2509 and 2*RU2509 - 5*SP2509, there were suggestions of holding positions and setting stop - losses [3][8][13]. - **Options**: Generally, the suggestion was to wait and see [3][8][13].

我国乘联分会发布的最新数据显示，今年5月，全国乘用车市场零售量达到193.2万辆，同比增长13.3%，环比增长 10.1%。今年1-5月，乘用车市场累计零售量达到881.1万辆，同比增长9.1%。 市场分析 化工日报 | 2025-06-12 天然橡胶社会库存继续下降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约17380元/吨，较前一日变动-185元/吨。NR主力合约14870元/吨，较前一日变动-350 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格16700元/吨，较前一日变动-150元/吨。青岛保税区泰混17000元/吨， 较前一日变动-240元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶2100美元/吨，较前一日变动-25美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶2000美元/吨，较前一日变动-25美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格13600元/吨，较前一日变动0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价13550元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。 近期市场资讯：QinRex据中国海关总署6月9日公布的数据显示，2025年5月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合 计60.7万吨，较2024年同期的48.5万吨增加25 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-11 降雨干扰，云南胶水价格回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13805元/吨，较前一日变动+80元/吨。NR主力合约12155元/吨，较前一日变动+105 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13800元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13740元/吨， 较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1715美元/吨，较前一日变动+5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1665美元/吨，较前一日变动+5美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11600元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11450元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 近期市场资讯：QinRex据中国海关总署6月9日公布的数据显示，2025年5月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合 计60.7万吨，较2024年同期的48.5万吨增加25.2%。2025年1-5月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）共计347.6万吨， 较2024年同期的281.4万吨增加23.5%。 开工率：全钢胎开工率为55.65%（-5.15%），半钢胎开工率为64.05%（-8 ...

杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,145 151,323 | 11,345 163,945 | -200 -12622 | | | （07合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 28,417 | 33,898 | -5481 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 849,425 | 930,065 | -80640 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 455 | 205 | 250 | | | 月差 | BR06-BR07 | | -25 | -60 | 35 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,350 | 11,450 | -100 | | | | 华东顺丁 | （民营） | 11,400 | 11,500 ...

化工周报 | 2025-05-25 现货方面：云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14450元/吨，较前一日变动-300元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14420元/吨，较前一 日变动-130元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1780美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1720 美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 供应方面：天然橡胶青岛港口入库率6.30%（+0.63%），其中一般贸易入库率6.14%（+1.06%），保税库入库率7.04% （-1.54%）；高顺顺丁开工率75.57%（-3.63%），高顺顺丁产量30342吨（-1458.00）。 生产利润方面：泰国STR20#生产毛利为-1178.00元/吨（+74.00），泰国RSS3生产毛利为1667.00元/吨（-37.00）;顺 丁橡胶生产毛利为-615元/吨（+0），碳四抽提法丁二烯生产毛利为3475.54元/吨（+107.80）。 需求方面：全钢胎开工率62.09%（+2.21%），半钢胎开工率73.74%（+3%）。山东省全钢胎库存天数为42.86天（+0.09）， ...

5月12日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，20号胶期货主力合约开盘报12415.00元/吨，今日盘中高 位震荡运行；截至发稿，20号胶主力最高触及12815.00元，下方探低12300.00元，涨幅达2.12%附近。 目前来看，20号胶行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于20号胶后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 华联期货指出，国内降准降息，并与美国接触讨论贸易问题，宏观环境边际有望改善。全球贸易局势复 杂多变，对经济增速影响难以避免。目前产区物候正常，割胶积极性仍然偏强而且有惯性。青岛干胶库 存截至5月4日最新一期累库。今年橡胶进口数据增长幅度较大，3月同比增17%，前三月同比增21%。 宏观需求方面，美国发动贸易战强力利空宏观需求。国内房地产依然拖累橡胶需求，1至3月房地产开发 新开工数据十分疲软；重卡销量边际反弹，4月同比涨9%左右，2025年1-4月，重卡累计销量同比持 平。半钢胎开工率已低于去年同期，全钢胎开工率处于近年区间低位而且边际走弱，工厂和渠道轮胎成 品库存均偏高。操作上，建议空头减仓，压力位16000附近 国投安信期货分析称，需求继续走弱，供应预期增加，现货库存回升，中美贸 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-05-08 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素占优，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素占优，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：国内外天胶产区将陆续进入新一轮割胶旺季，原料产出稳步增长，新胶 ...