Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell responded to criticisms from the White House regarding the renovation of the Fed's headquarters, denying allegations of extravagance and asserting that the project has been under strict supervision since its approval in 2017 [1][4][5]. Group 1: Renovation Project Details - The renovation project was approved in 2017 and has been subject to strict oversight, with Powell emphasizing the necessity of significant structural repairs and updates due to the age of the buildings, which date back to the 1930s [4][10]. - Powell refuted claims of luxury features in the renovation, stating that there are no plans for a VIP restaurant or special elevators [4][10]. - The budget for the renovation has increased from an initial estimate of $1.9 billion to nearly $2.5 billion [10]. Group 2: Political Context - The Trump administration has repeatedly criticized the renovation, suggesting it is excessively lavish and using it as a potential justification for Powell's removal [5][10]. - Trump expressed that spending $2.5 billion on renovations is shameful and indicated that it could be a reason for Powell's dismissal, although he later stated that it is unlikely to happen unless fraud is proven [10][12]. - The White House's National Economic Council Director stated that Trump has the right to dismiss Powell if there are valid reasons [10]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - Trump has been dissatisfied with the Fed's interest rate policies, advocating for a reduction in the current rate of approximately 4.3% to below 3% [12][13]. - Powell has maintained a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments, indicating the need to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation and future economic trends [12][13]. - The ongoing tensions between the Trump administration and Powell have raised concerns about the Fed's independence in decision-making [13].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock, currency, and bond markets experienced significant declines due to President Trump's consideration of removing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, although Trump later stated he does not intend to do so [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Trump's initial comments about potentially dismissing Powell, major U.S. stock indices fell, the dollar index dropped, and U.S. Treasury yields rose [5]. - After Trump denied the reports and stated that he does not plan to take action against Powell, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and the major stock indices closed higher, although the dollar index slightly decreased [7]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Several leaders in the U.S. banking sector publicly emphasized the importance of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve for the stability of the U.S. economy and financial system [6]. - Trump's discussions about Powell's potential dismissal included references to past issues, such as the renovation project of the Federal Reserve's headquarters, which has been criticized for alleged excessive spending [8][9]. Group 3: Powell's Position and Future - Powell, who was appointed by Trump in 2017 and reappointed under President Biden, is expected to complete his term, which ends on May 15 of the following year [15]. - Trump has criticized the current interest rate set by the Federal Reserve, suggesting it should be lowered, while Powell has indicated that the Fed will take a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [15][16].

Group 1 - Citibank maintains its expectation for a possible interest rate cut in September following the analysis of the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting minutes [1] - The FOMC meeting minutes reveal a divergence of opinions among committee members, with some supporting a rate cut as early as July, while others prefer no cuts this year, but a majority believe a cut later in 2023 is appropriate [1] - Current unemployment rate at 4.1% makes a July rate cut "extremely unlikely," with a slightly hawkish tone noted in the minutes regarding inflation risks from tariffs [1] Group 2 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating, but analysts from JPMorgan believe the impact on financial markets will be limited due to prior adjustments by bond index providers [2] - Despite a challenging fiscal outlook, Citibank's rate strategists indicate that the downgrade is unlikely to significantly affect foreign demand for U.S. Treasury securities [2] - Federal Reserve officials are reassessing the monetary policy framework in light of recent inflation performance and potential supply shocks, which may lead to adjustments in employment and inflation target strategies [2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate that some participants view the risks in the labor market as a primary concern, overshadowing inflation risks [1] - There are signs of weakening in actual economic activity and the labor market, leading to concerns about future economic conditions, especially if restrictive policies continue [1] - Participants agree that despite a decrease in uncertainty regarding inflation and economic outlook, caution is necessary when adjusting monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike cycle is only on a "short pause" and will resume after a period of observation, according to board member Hajime Takata [1][2] - Takata maintains a hawkish stance despite threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to increase tariffs on Japanese goods, which casts a shadow over economic prospects [1] - The Japanese inflation rate remains the highest among the G7 countries, with a key cost-of-living indicator reaching a two-year high in May [1] Group 2 - Takata emphasizes that the sustainability of corporate behavior is crucial for further adjustments in monetary policy, as Japan's economy approaches its price stability target [2] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has reiterated that the core inflation rate is still below the 2% target and that he wants to see a clear upward trend in inflation before resuming rate hikes [2] - Over 90% of observers expect the Bank of Japan to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% in the upcoming policy decision on July 31 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan should gradually and cautiously adjust its monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's policy adjustment is necessary to respond to changing economic conditions [1] - A careful approach is emphasized to avoid potential market disruptions [1]

近期全球外汇市场呈现显著变化，美元指数持续走弱至多年低位。日本央行货币政策立场的微妙转变，叠加美日贸易关系的复杂演进，正在重塑两国货币的 相对价值。市场参与者密切关注这一趋势的发展轨迹，美元兑日元汇率面临多重压力因素的交织影响。 日本央行政策预期推动日元走强 美日贸易关系的复杂性为汇率走势增添了变数。贸易政策的不确定性对两国经济前景产生了不同程度的影响。日本作为出口导向型经济体，对贸易环境变化 较为敏感，这种敏感性在汇率市场得到了充分体现。 美国关税政策的潜在调整成为影响汇率预期的关键因素。市场担忧新的贸易壁垒可能对日本出口企业造成冲击，进而影响日本经济增长前景。这种担忧在一 定程度上限制了日元的上涨空间，但同时也为美元带来了下行压力。 贸易谈判的进展情况直接影响着市场情绪。谈判过程中的任何积极或消极信号都会在外汇市场引发即时反应。投资者对谈判结果的不同预期，导致美元兑日 元汇率出现较大幅度的波动。 来源：金融界 日本通胀数据持续超出央行目标水平，为货币政策调整提供了基础条件。东京地区消费者价格指数虽有所回落，但仍维持在3.1%的相对高位，明显高于日 本央行设定的2%通胀目标。核心通胀指标的韧性表现，增强了市 ...

Group 1 - The Israel-Iran conflict has been declared to be at a standstill, with both parties agreeing to cease hostilities under the mediation of President Trump [1][3] - The conflict lasted for 12 days, with a level of intensity that exceeded expectations, leading to a realization that a prolonged war was unlikely [3][6] - The U.S. involvement is seen as a strategic move to facilitate a resolution, allowing both Israel and Iran to save face while benefiting the U.S. the most [6] Group 2 - Iran's nuclear capabilities are a significant bargaining chip in negotiations with the U.S., and Israel's actions have been aimed at undermining any potential agreements [5] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut is linked to the current economic situation and may be a preparatory move for upcoming trade tensions with China [8][10] - The ongoing trade war with China is complicated by the U.S.'s internal economic challenges, and the recent geopolitical events may influence the U.S. strategy moving forward [10]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant decrease in gold ETF holdings and a notable drop in spot gold prices, driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and shifting market focus towards U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [5][6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of June 24, 2025, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported total holdings of 955.68 tons, a decrease of 1.72 tons from the previous trading day [5]. - The report indicates a downward trend in gold ETF holdings, reflecting changing market dynamics and investor sentiment [2][5]. Group 2: Spot Gold Prices - On June 24, spot gold prices experienced a significant decline, dropping to a low of $3,295.35 per ounce, the lowest level since June 9, before recovering slightly to close at $3,323 per ounce, marking a decrease of $46.02 or 1.37% [5]. - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced safe-haven demand following a reported ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which has led the market to perceive the geopolitical conflict as resolved [5]. Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve Policy - Market attention is shifting towards Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming congressional testimony, with expectations that he may signal potential interest rate cuts [5][6]. - Powell indicated that the Fed is in a favorable position to wait for clearer economic signals before adjusting monetary policy, with upcoming data expected to reveal the impact of tariffs on inflation [5][6]. - There are mixed signals within the Fed regarding interest rate cuts, with some members supporting a potential cut in July, while others suggest caution due to inflation concerns [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight overseas market risk appetite recovered due to the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran and Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks, leading to a rise in US stocks. In China, the National Day parade news and post - market financial consumption - promotion measures helped boost the index. The sustainability of the rebound depends on whether the trading volume of the two markets can continue to expand [1][2][3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Domestic Policy**: Six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", proposing 19 key measures in six aspects to enhance consumption potential [1]. - **Overseas Situation**: Israel and Iran agreed to a full - scale cease - fire, and Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible early interest rate cut [1][2]. - **Spot Market**: A - share major indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.15% to 3420.57 points, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.3%. Most sectors' indices rose, and the trading volume of the two markets increased to 1.4 trillion yuan. US stocks also rose, with the Nasdaq rising 1.43% to 19912.53 points [2]. - **Futures Market**: The basis of stock index futures slightly recovered but remained at a low level. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both increased [2]. Strategy - The market's upward trend is affected by overseas risk - appetite recovery and domestic policy catalysis. The sustainability of the rebound requires the continuous expansion of trading volume [3]. Macro - economic Charts - Include charts such as the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, and the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends [6][9][10]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and other major indices all rose on June 24, 2025, with the ChiNext Index having the highest increase of 2.3% [12]. - **Market Volume and Balance**: Include charts of the trading volume of the two markets and the margin trading balance [11][12]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest and trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all increased [16]. - **Basis**: The basis of stock index futures showed different changes in different contracts and different delivery months, with some narrowing and some expanding [27]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads of stock index futures also showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [33][35].