Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate for the first time in three years, reducing it by 100 basis points to 20% due to slowing inflation and signs of economic distress under high borrowing costs [1][4] - The decision to cut rates comes amid a backdrop of declining inflation pressures, with the central bank noting that the effects of tight monetary policy on demand are becoming evident as inflation decreases [1][4] - Economic Minister Maxim Reshetnikov has publicly called for rate cuts to stimulate growth, indicating that some sectors are cooling too quickly, reflecting growing concerns about economic downturn risks [4] Group 2 - The annualized inflation rate has decreased from 7% in March to 6.2% in April, with estimates suggesting it may have returned to the 4% target level by May [4] - Despite the recent decline in inflation, economists warn that the central bank may view this as a fragile balance, with expectations of alternating between maintaining rates and cautious rate cuts in the second half of the year [4] - The central bank's future rate decisions will depend on the speed and sustainability of inflation and expectations decline, indicating that tight monetary policy may remain in place for an extended period [7]

俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌琳娜：如果预算的通胀抑制效果低于预期，这将需要对货币政策进行调整。 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower interest rates for the eighth time, with a forecasted reduction of 0.25 percentage points to 2% [1]. Core Insights - The ongoing trade tensions initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump are negatively impacting inflation and economic outlook, prompting the ECB to consider further rate cuts [1]. - Economic growth and inflation in Europe may weaken in the coming months, but significant military and infrastructure spending could support long-term growth [3]. - The ECB faces challenges in adjusting monetary policy due to the lack of specific details on fiscal stimulus measures [3]. - Analysts predict that the ECB will maintain its previous economic forecasts despite fundamental changes in the economic backdrop due to trade issues [11]. Summary by Sections Interest Rates - ECB policymakers have nearly completed measures to lower borrowing costs, with discussions about slowing the pace of easing [4]. - The ECB is expected to pause rate cuts after July, with a potential drop in deposit rates to 1.75% [10]. Economic Forecast - Analysts project growth in the Eurozone for 2025 at 0.9%, with inflation expected at 2.3% for the same year [12]. - The Euro has strengthened significantly since March, and lower energy prices are providing downward pressure on prices [11]. Trade and Geopolitical Risks - The report highlights that U.S. policies and geopolitical tensions are the most significant risks to the Eurozone economy [17]. - The potential for increased tariffs on European goods by the U.S. could escalate trade conflicts, impacting economic stability [15].

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver T+D is above 8500, with a recent increase of 2.85% [1] - The highest price reached today is 8500, while the lowest was 8382, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - Resistance levels for silver T+D are identified in the 8500-8530 range, while support levels are noted in the 8150-8190 range [3] Group 2 - Japan's real wage levels are improving, contributing to moderate consumption growth [2] - Historical negative growth in real wages poses a long-term constraint on consumption capacity, necessitating sustained wage growth to solidify domestic demand [2] - The average wage increase in the 2024 "Shunto" labor negotiations is reported at 5.46%, marking the second consecutive year of surpassing previous levels [2]

澳洲联储会议纪要：更大幅度的调整或能为应对不利的全球局势提供更多保障。 ...

Macro - Japan's ultra-long bond yields have risen significantly due to increased market concerns over bond supply shocks from fiscal expansion influenced by tariffs [1] - Demand for ultra-long bonds from domestic institutions has been weak since 2025, contributing to the supply-demand imbalance [1] - The recent cold reception of Japanese government bond auctions has exacerbated negative market sentiment [1] - Future attention should be paid to upcoming government bond auctions, potential dovish signals from the Bank of Japan, and the results of the July Senate elections [1] Fixed Income - Japan's 20-year government bond auction showed a rapid decline in market demand, reaching a new low since 2012, with the auction tail spread hitting the highest level since 1987 [4] - The yield on Japan's 20-year bonds surged to 2.539%, the highest since 2000, while the 10-year and 30-year yields also reached record highs [4] - Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio was 219.15% in Q1 2025, the highest among developed economies, with rising interest rates further increasing debt servicing costs [5] - The Bank of Japan's ongoing reduction in bond purchases necessitates finding new buyers for government bonds [5] - Rising inflation and interest rate pressures in Japan make long-term bond yields difficult to decrease [5] - The rapid rise in Japanese bond yields poses risks of fiscal strain, losses for bondholders, and potential spillover effects on global bond markets [6] - The impact of rising yields on China's bond market is expected to be limited due to differing inflation environments and fiscal conditions [6] Non-Ferrous Metals - The lithium and cobalt sectors are experiencing price fluctuations, with lithium prices showing signs of stabilization despite high inventory levels [8] - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased, with a weekly average of 61,600 yuan/ton, down 2.25% from the previous week [9] - Cobalt raw material supply is tightening, but demand remains cautious, leading to a weak overall market [10] - Phosphate iron lithium and ternary material prices have also seen declines, with phosphate iron lithium averaging 30,300 yuan/ton, down 1.16% [11]

欧洲央行会议纪要：四月降息或被视为提前实施六月的货币政策调整。 ...

Group 1 - Recent comments from two Federal Reserve officials indicate a cautious approach in light of economic uncertainty, suggesting a potential "wait-and-see" period before further policy adjustments [1][3] - The global economic landscape is fraught with uncertainties such as trade tensions, geopolitical issues, and slowing growth, which complicate the Fed's decision-making process [3][4] - Domestic economic indicators show resilience but also present risks, including inflation volatility and labor market instability, necessitating more data for accurate policy evaluation [3][4] Group 2 - The Fed's policy adjustments must consider market expectations to avoid excessive market reactions and volatility [4] - There is debate among analysts regarding the potential lag in policy adjustments due to the Fed's cautious stance, which could hinder timely responses to rapid economic changes [4] - In the coming months, the Fed will closely monitor key economic data such as inflation rates, employment figures, consumer confidence, and manufacturing activity to inform its policy decisions [5]

斯里兰卡央行：将隔夜政策利率下调25个基点至7.75%。 ...

日本央行审议委员野口旭：我们的基本货币政策立场应谨慎推进政策调整，同时密切关注经济状况及其 潜在风险。 ...