Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upcoming China-US trade negotiations from October 24 - 27 have boosted market optimism. However, the new US sanctions on a Russian oil company have led to a sharp rise in oil prices, increasing inflation expectations, and causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to rebound. The domestic economy is growing faster, and the impending trade negotiations have lifted domestic market sentiment. The Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee emphasized supply security, with manufacturing and technological self - reliance taking the lead, which is expected to enhance domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious long - position approach. Treasury bonds are also expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to observe cautiously. In the commodity sector, black metals are expected to rebound with short - term fluctuations, and a cautious long - position is recommended; non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, and a cautious long - position is also suggested; energy and chemicals are expected to rebound with short - term fluctuations, and a cautious long - position is appropriate; precious metals are experiencing a short - term correction at high levels, and it is advisable to observe cautiously [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Macro - situation**: Overseas, the upcoming China - US trade negotiations have boosted global risk appetite, but US sanctions on a Russian oil company have increased inflation expectations. Domestically, the economy is growing faster, and the trade negotiations are expected to lift the domestic market. Policy - wise, the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee's stance is favorable for domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to trade negotiation progress and domestic policy implementation [2]. - **Asset suggestions**: Stock index: short - term fluctuation, cautious long - position; Treasury bonds: short - term fluctuation, cautious observation; commodities - black metals: short - term rebound with fluctuation, cautious long - position; non - ferrous metals: short - term fluctuation, cautious long - position; energy and chemicals: short - term rebound with fluctuation, cautious long - position; precious metals: short - term high - level correction, cautious observation [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - The domestic stock market rose slightly driven by sectors such as coal, energy metals, and film and television theaters. The improving domestic economy and upcoming trade negotiations have boosted market sentiment. Policy support from the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee has enhanced risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and it is advisable to take a cautious long - position in the short term [3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Thursday night. Geopolitical risks and anticipation of US inflation data drove the increase. Spot gold rose 0.76% to $4125 per ounce. In the short term, precious metals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Short - term investors should reduce long - positions and observe, while long - term investors should buy on dips [3]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: On Thursday, the steel futures and spot markets rebounded to varying degrees, with low trading volumes. The upcoming China - US trade negotiations have maintained strong macro expectations. The real - world demand for steel has improved marginally, with a 27.41 - million - ton decrease in inventory and a 17.32 - million - ton increase in apparent consumption this week. Supply has increased slightly but is expected to decline due to compressed steel mill profits. The steel market has no clear trend, with limited upward and downward space in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, iron ore futures and spot prices continued to rebound. Steel mill profits are compressed, leading to a three - week decline in pig iron production, and further decline is expected. Steel mills are mainly making just - in - time purchases. Global iron ore shipments increased by 126 million tons this week, while arrivals decreased by 526.4 million tons. The price difference between Carajas fines (Carajás) and PB fines has narrowed. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Ferro - alloy**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon ferro - alloy and silicon manganese were stable, while the futures prices rebounded slightly. The production of five major steel products increased slightly, and the demand for ferro - alloys is currently stable. The开工 rate of silicon manganese enterprises increased, and the daily output rose. The prices of silicon ferro - alloy and silicon manganese are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [7]. 3.5 Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: On Thursday, the main soda ash contract fluctuated within a range. Supply is in a capacity - expansion phase, with plans for new capacity in the fourth quarter, resulting in high supply and inventory. Although there are anti - involution policies, the industry lacks clear policy implementation. In the long term, supply - side contradictions will suppress prices, and a bearish outlook is maintained [8]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the main glass contract fluctuated within a range. Glass production increased slightly, and the number of operating production lines remained stable. As the "Golden September and Silver October" season ends, downstream procurement has slowed down. With anti - involution policies providing some support, but limited demand growth, short - term range - bound trading is recommended [8]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper reached its highest level since October 9. High US copper inventories may limit future imports. The suspension of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine has tightened the global copper supply, but it is a temporary situation, and next year is expected to be a year of increased copper supply. China's refined copper inventory reduction has been less than expected. Copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, SHFE aluminum rose significantly due to a positive macro environment and a general increase in commodity prices. An overseas aluminum smelter's accident has a limited impact on production. China's aluminum fundamentals are weak, with slow inventory reduction. However, market expectations are positive, and short - selling should be cautious [10]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, Indonesia's actions have tightened the global tin supply in the short term, and the mining approval cycle adjustment has added uncertainty. The smelting start - up rate has recovered. On the demand side, the start - up rate of tin solder is low, and demand in traditional and emerging industries is weak. High tin prices have suppressed consumption, but inventory has decreased due to some downstream replenishment. Tin prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Thursday, the main lithium carbonate contract rose 4.17%. The market is experiencing both increased supply and demand, with strong seasonal demand and continuous inventory reduction. The market is strengthening with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure zone [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the main industrial silicon contract rose 2.72%. Production reached a new high, but there has been no inventory accumulation during the wet season. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises [12]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the main polysilicon contract rose 1.07%. The market is facing high supply and low demand. Expectations of policies such as state purchases are awaited, and attention should be paid to spot price support [13][14]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybeans rose overnight. Brazil's soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Argentina's weather conditions are favorable. The market is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations, and attention should be paid to China - US soybean trade developments [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The oil mill operating rate is high, and there is a widespread phenomenon of hastening the delivery of soybean meal. Oil mills are facing losses, increasing their willingness to support prices. There is a potential supply gap in the domestic market before the arrival of South American new soybeans next year. After a sharp decline, soybean meal is expected to stabilize with fluctuations. Rapeseed meal is in a state of balanced supply and demand, and its price is mainly influenced by soybean meal [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term prices of soybean and rapeseed oil may be dragged down by palm oil. Soybean oil is in the peak season, but trading volume has not changed significantly. Palm oil is weak due to increased production in Malaysia. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to continue to adjust. Rapeseed oil is supported by inventory reduction before new supplies arrive [16]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's palm oil production has increased in October, and China's palm oil inventory has increased due to concentrated arrivals. MPOC expects palm oil prices to remain stable above 4400 ringgit per ton for the rest of 2025 [16]. - **Corn**: The price of corn in the Northeast region is stable. The China - US trade negotiations have an impact on the market, and traders' willingness to build inventories is relatively low. The price is approaching the cost of production, and farmers may be more reluctant to sell as the weather cools. The buying sentiment in the futures market has increased [17]. - **Hogs**: The price of hogs in the north has risen, increasing the cost of secondary fattening and reducing the enthusiasm of secondary fatteners. The breeding industry is facing losses, and the supply peak has not yet arrived. The price is expected to remain weak before the winter solstice consumption peak. The LH2601 futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [17].

根据协议，美澳两国将在关键矿物与稀土领域加强协作，内容涵盖矿产加工、产能建设与供应链安全等 多个方面。 阿尔巴尼斯表示，该协议涵盖总值约85亿美元的一系列合作项目，澳大利亚具备扩大稀土加工的产能， 协议中包括在澳建设相关精炼设施；特朗普则表示，大约一年后，美国将拥有大量关键矿物和稀土。 看到这则消息，有两个疑问。一是这项协议，适逢中国对超硬材料、稀土设备和原辅料、钬等5种中重 稀土实施出口管制，而美国则对中国进口产品加征100%关税，并对关键软件实施出口管制的大背景下 签订，很蹊跷，也很突然。殊不知，中美关税战已经打了半年多，如果澳大利亚能够为美国提供这么多 的关键矿物与稀土，为什么要等到现在。早一点签订协议，岂非让特朗普在与中国打贸易战、关税战时 能够更好地掌握主动权？ 二是如果真的如特朗普所言，一年后，美国将拥有大量关键矿物与稀土，我就不信，特朗普不会将此作 为"核武器"，在中美贸易谈判中使用，从而牢牢掌握谈判主动权。因为，一年时间，对美国来说，完全 抗得住，对特朗普来说，也能忍得住。那么，为什么特朗普还要心急火燎地与中国进行贸易谈判呢？难 道美国不能再等上一年半载的吗？显然，有稀土与有稀土产品是两回事。 ...

Trade Negotiations - The U S expects the meeting between President Trump and President Xi to proceed as scheduled [1] - Negotiations are meaningful, but require further observation [1] - The U S Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative will meet with Chinese officials in Malaysia to explore opportunities for advancement [1] Agricultural Products - The U S frequently discusses soybeans with China, and President Trump will raise the issue of agricultural products with the Chinese side [1] Rare Earth Elements - The U S is diversifying its rare earth procurement channels and focusing on activating rare earth production capacity within the U S [1]

美国大豆协会（ASA）和美国大豆出口委员会均表示，目前美国对中国的大豆销售没有新增订单，未来几周也预计不会有任何装运计划。他们称，如果不尽快改变现状，一些农民可能面临财务崩溃，目前尚不清楚政府是否会采取措施，提供额外资金援助给农民。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):美国国家油籽加工协会主席表示，美国生物燃料政策可吸收中国退出美国大豆市场后的过剩产量，“我们了解到豆农目前面临的困境，我们认为生物燃料政策是中短期内解决问题的有效途径。”美国大豆协会（ASA）发言人表示，随着贸易谈判深入到收获季节，仍然希望谈判能够回到正轨，恢复进入中国市场的机会。 ...

Core Insights - China has not imported any soybeans from the United States since September 2025, marking the first occurrence of zero imports since November 2018 [1] - South American soybean shipments have surged compared to the same period last year, with Brazil's exports increasing by 29.9% to 10.96 million tons, accounting for 85.2% of total imports, and Argentina's exports rising by 91.5% to 1.17 million tons, making up 9% of the total [1] - In September, China's total soybean imports reached 12.87 million tons, the second-highest level in history, but there were no purchases of U.S. soybeans during this fall season [1] - If trade negotiations do not yield results, U.S. soybean farmers may face losses amounting to billions of dollars as Chinese buyers continue to source soybeans from South America [1]

【文/观察者网 王一】韩国四大财阀掌门人刚在美国总统特朗普的海湖庄园打完高尔夫，韩国总统室政 策室长金容范10月19日对外透露，两国关税谈判在大多数关键问题上取得了"实质性进展"。 金容范表示，韩美在许多问题上达成了广泛一致，但仍有几点需进一步谈判。他认为，在10月底即将于 韩国举行的亚太经合组织（APEC）第三十二次领导人非正式会议上，韩美敲定协议的可能性有所增 加。 金容范说，"两国在非常认真且建设性的氛围中进行了谈判"，对"谈判方案必须在韩国能够承受的范围 内"这一问题，"韩美两国的意见与之前相比明显趋同"。 韩国《朝鲜日报》20日指出，金容范的言论被解读为美方在某种程度上接受了韩国的立场。此前在两国 达成的贸易协议框架中，美国同意将对韩的25%关税降至15%，但要求韩国以全额直接投资的方式进行 3500亿美元的投资，韩方则认为这一要求"超出韩国所能承受的范围"。 韩国总统李在明此前直言，韩国外汇储备为4163亿美元，在未与美国签订货币互换协议的情况下，韩方 若按照美方要求以现金形式投资3500亿美元，韩国经济可能陷入堪比1997年金融危机的困境。 报道称，虽然韩企负责人并未与特朗普在同一组打球，但他们 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the US-China economic negotiations and its impact on the financial markets, highlighting the importance of upcoming meetings and the overall market sentiment [5][7]. Financial Market Overview - The interbank funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with a notable increase in long-term bond yields [3]. - The central bank conducted a 1,890 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 2,538 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 648 billion yuan [3]. - The funding rates remain stable, with DR001 around 1.31% and DR007 around 1.43% [3]. Bond Market Insights - The bond market showed a slight upward trend, influenced by comments from former President Trump regarding tariffs on China, which were deemed unsustainable [5][6]. - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated, opening at 1.7525% and reaching approximately 1.768% [5]. - The latest LPR (Loan Prime Rate) remained unchanged, aligning with market expectations [5]. Upcoming Events - Key negotiations between US and Chinese representatives are scheduled in Malaysia, with significant implications for future trade relations [7]. - The upcoming APEC meeting is highlighted as a critical moment for high-level discussions between the two nations [7].

中国9月未从美国进口大豆 美国豆农急盼政府援助 中新网10月20日电(记者 宫宏宇)海关总署数据显示，今年9月，中国未从美国进口大豆。这是中国对美 国大豆月进口量自2018年11月以来首次降至零。 路透社指，如果美国和中国接下来的贸易谈判没有突破，随着中国继续从南美采购大豆，美国农民可能 面临数十亿美元的损失。 彭博社报道则提到，因失去中国买家，美国农民的不满情绪正在加剧，他们面临着大豆价格下跌的压 力，许多人急切期待美国政府援助。不过，因为政府"停摆"，这些援助目前处于搁置状态。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：王永乐 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 在关税背景下，今年美国豆农的大豆丰收季没有了"中国订单"。而与此同时，作为世界上最大的大豆进 口国，中国正加大对南美国家大豆的采购取代美豆。 据路透社等报道，今年1-9月，中国共从巴西共进口6370万吨大豆，同比增长2.4%，从阿根廷进口290万 吨大豆，同比 ...

Group 1 - President Trump claims that Indian Prime Minister Modi has promised to stop purchasing Russian oil, warning of "huge" tariffs if this commitment is not fulfilled [1] - The issue of Russian oil purchases has been a core point of contention in the lengthy US-India trade negotiations, with Trump's 50% tariffs on Indian goods partly aimed at countering India's procurement of Russian oil [1] - Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Western countries ceased purchasing Russian oil, leading India to become the largest buyer of discounted Russian oil [1] Group 2 - Indian refining companies have placed oil orders for November shipments, with some expected to arrive in December, indicating that any reduction in oil imports may not be reflected until December or January [2] - Commodity data company Kpler estimates that due to increased Russian oil exports following drone attacks on Russian refineries, India's imports of Russian oil are expected to rise by approximately 20% this month, reaching 1.9 million barrels per day [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily morning observations on various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemical products. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides trading strategies for each commodity [5][7][9]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Categories Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Macro changes increase, and the overall pressure on meal products is rising. The international soybean pressure is high, and the domestic soybean meal may face more downward pressure. It is recommended to short the 05 contract on rallies, conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads, and sell call options at high points [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: The price of foreign sugar has fallen, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to open lower. The global sugar production is increasing, and the domestic sugar market is expected to follow the foreign market. It is recommended to short on rallies [17][18][20]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trend is to maintain a shock. The palm oil export volume in Malaysia has increased, and the soybean planting progress in Brazil is ahead. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long on significant pullbacks [20][21][23]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The new grain spot price has rebounded, and the futures market is expected to be strongly volatile. The US corn production may be adjusted, and the domestic new corn supply is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract, and gradually build long - term long positions on the 05 and 07 contracts on dips [23][24][25]. - **Hogs**: The pressure on hog sales has improved, and the spot price is generally stable. The short - term supply is still high, and the pig price is expected to face some pressure. It is recommended to take a bearish view and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [25][26][27]. - **Peanuts**: Peanuts may experience a reduction in production, and the short - term trend is to be strongly volatile. The spot price is stable, and the oil mills are starting to purchase. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 contracts on dips and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [28][29][30]. - **Eggs**: The demand is fair, and the egg price has stabilized. The supply of laying hens is still high, and the demand is average. It is recommended to close out previous short positions [31][32][35]. - **Apples**: The high - quality fruit rate is average, and the fruit price is rising steadily. The price of high - quality apples is expected to be firm, and the price gap will be large. It is recommended to go long on the 11 - month contract and short the 1 - month contract [36][37][39]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton purchase progress has accelerated, and the cotton price is mainly volatile. The new cotton supply is increasing, and the demand is improving slightly. It is expected that the cotton price will maintain a volatile trend [40][41][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Affected by coal mine safety accidents, the black metal sector has rebounded. The steel production is decreasing, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view on the shock and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar on dips [46][47][48]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply is disturbed, and there is support at the bottom. The coal mine safety supervision is strengthening, and the steel mill profit is not good. It is recommended to take profits on some long positions and go long on dips [48][49][50]. - **Iron Ore**: A bearish view is taken in the medium - term. The global iron ore supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is weakening. It is recommended to short in the medium - term and conduct cash - futures reverse spreads [51][52][53]. - **Ferroalloys**: The macro - sentiment drives the rebound, but the demand pressure still exists. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. It is recommended to expect a rebound driven by the improvement of macro - sentiment, but the price will be in a bottom - shock state [53][54][55]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Trump's trade stance has softened, and the risk - aversion sentiment has declined. The precious metals prices have fallen after a long - term rise. It is recommended to take profits and wait for new long - entry opportunities [59][60][61]. - **Copper**: The supply - side disturbances are increasing, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. The copper supply is affected, and the consumption is average. It is recommended to go long on dips and continue to hold cross - market positive spreads [61][64][65]. - **Alumina**: The supply - side is showing marginal changes, and the price is mainly grinding at a low level. The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to pay continuous attention to the supply - side changes [65][68][69]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Pay attention to the macro - expectations this week, and the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. The macro - sentiment is improving, and the consumption is supportive. It is recommended to go long on dips [70][74][75]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The macro - panic sentiment has improved, and the alloy price can be bought on dips. The tariff panic has eased, and the demand is supportive. It is recommended to go long on dips [75][76][78]. - **Zinc**: The export window has opened, and attention should be paid to the export volume and frequency. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the export window is open. It is recommended to close out some profitable short positions and short on rallies [78][79][82]. - **Lead**: The supply is gradually recovering, and the lead price may decline. The domestic lead supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to hold profitable short positions and short on rallies [83][84][87]. - **Nickel**: The inventory increase reflects an oversupply, and the nickel price is under pressure. The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the shock range [87][88][89]. - **Stainless Steel**: The weak demand tests the cost support. The price is below the cost, and the demand is not optimistic. It is expected to maintain a weak - shock pattern [91][92][93]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in a range - shock state, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low. The short - term supply is slightly excessive, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait for a full pullback [93][94][95]. - **Polysilicon**: It is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term, and long positions should be held. The capacity integration is progressing, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to hold long positions [96][97][98]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand provides support, the supply is uncertain, and the lithium price is rising. The demand is stable, and the supply has uncertainties. It is recommended to go long on dips [97][98][100]. - **Tin**: The short - term macro - disturbances are large, and the tin price may be under pressure. The short - term consumption is weak, and the price is in a range - shock state. It is expected that the tin price will be under pressure [100][101][102].