在民生福祉方面，全国居民人均可支配收入从"十三五"末的 3.2万元增至2024年的4.1万元，年均实际增长5.5%。 央视网消息：2021年，第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要提出，今年则是"十四五"规划的"收官之年"。7月9日上午，国务 院新闻办举行首场"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会，国家发展改革相关负责人表示，"十四五"规划确定的战略任务已 全面落地。 据介绍，十四五规划纲要设定的主要指标中，经济增长、全员劳动生产率、全社会研发经费投入等指标进展符合预期；常住人口 城镇化率，人均预期寿命，粮食、能源综合生产能力等8项指标进展超预期。国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁表示，规划确定的战略任务 全面落地，部署的102项重大工程顺利在推进。总的来看，这五年取得了新的开创性进展、突破性变革、历史性成就。 "十四五"期间，我国经济实力显著增强，经济总量预计将接近140万亿。5年经济增量预计将超过35万亿元，超过世界排名第3国 家的总量，每年对世界经济增长的贡献率保持在30%左右。 在创新能力方面，"十四五"期间，我国研发投入再创新高，2024年全社会研发经费投入规模比"十三五"末增长近50%，增量达到 ...

"十四五"前4年我国经济增速平均达到5.5% 郑栅洁表示，前4年我国经济增速平均达到5.5%。我国这么大的体量和增量，又经受了世纪疫情、贸易 霸凌等冲击，在这么大的基数上，能保持这样的增速，在经济发展史上前所未有。 "十四五"规划纲要确定的战略任务全面落地 国务院新闻办公室今天举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会，请国家发展改革委主任郑 栅洁介绍"十四五"时期经济社会发展成就，并答记者问。 要点如下：我国民营企业数量较"十三五"末增长超40% 郑栅洁表示，我们"刀刃向内"破除体制机制障碍，全国统一大市场"四梁八柱"基本建立，民营经济促进 法颁布施行，制造业外资准入限制"清零"，全国外资准入负面清单限制措施缩减到29项，民营企业增加 到5800多万户，比"十三五"末增长超40%。 我国"十四五"期间经济增量将超过35万亿元 郑栅洁介绍，5年前制定的规划纲要设定的主要指标中，经济增长、全员劳动生产率、全社会研发经费 投入等指标进展符合预期；常住人口城镇化率，人均预期寿命，粮食、能源综合生产能力等8项指标进 展超预期；规划确定的战略任务全面落地，部署的102项重大工程稳步顺利推进。总的来看，经济社会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the importance of accelerating the construction of Zhengzhou as a modern logistics hub, integrating various sectors, and enhancing the city's role in the national and international market [1][2]. Group 1 - The meeting highlighted the need to understand and implement the important speech by General Secretary Xi Jinping during his visit to Henan, focusing on the "two highs and four efforts" and the basic requirements of "five unifications and one openness" [1][2]. - Zhengzhou's advantages, such as its geographical location, transportation convenience, and rich cultural heritage, should be leveraged to support the construction of a national unified market and a significant circulation hub [1][2]. - The city aims to transition from a channel economy to a hub economy by enhancing the integration of logistics with manufacturing, agriculture, and commerce [2]. Group 2 - There is a call for innovation in institutional mechanisms to eliminate barriers to the free flow of production factors and to enhance the role of cross-border e-commerce as a driving force [2]. - The city plans to deepen its integration into international high-standard trade rules and actively participate in the high-quality development of the "Belt and Road" initiative [2]. - Strengthening leadership coordination, project planning, and policy support is essential to transform research outcomes into productive forces, thereby promoting high-quality economic and social development in Zhengzhou [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position for IH, IF, IM, IC in the macro and financial and stock index sectors [1]. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching 3,500 points and is expected to break through. The photovoltaic sector, a flag of anti - involution, led the gains. The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 3,500 points [1][2]. - Anti - involution key industries may include photovoltaic, lithium battery, new energy vehicles, e - commerce platforms, etc. High - Goldman Sachs predicts that Chinese listed companies will pay a total of 3 trillion yuan in dividends by the end of 2025, reaching a record high [1][2]. - Global financial asset re - allocation is "de - Americanized", which is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares. The improvement of the national unified market is expected to boost the performance of listed companies [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets opened higher and moved up. The Shanghai Composite Index approached 3,500 points again. The turnover of the two markets was 1.45 trillion yuan, showing increasing volume on the rise. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 indices all rose, with increases of 1.27%, 1.31%, 0.84%, and 0.57% respectively. Among industry and theme ETFs, photovoltaic ETFs, communication ETFs, etc. led the gains, while green power ETFs, power ETFs, etc. led the losses. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 index futures had net inflows of 9.8 billion, 4.8 billion, 4.5 billion, and 0.5 billion yuan respectively in the precipitation funds [1]. Important Information - Huachuang Securities believes that key anti - involution industries may include photovoltaic, lithium battery, new energy vehicles, e - commerce platforms, etc., and the anti - involution measures are mainly industry self - regulation, administrative guidance, and public opinion supervision [1]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of 2025, Chinese on - shore and off - shore listed companies will pay a total of 3 trillion yuan in dividends, and the dividend payout ratio of Chinese listed companies reached 39% last year [1]. - The first batch of 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs were issued, with a single - product limit of 300 million yuan each, and all 10 products were sold out on the first day [1]. - Google's Omar Shams believes that energy supply is the key constraint for the long - term development of AI, and China's annual new power generation capacity exceeds the sum of the UK and France [1]. - In June 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. Passenger car exports were 480,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 23.8% and a month - on - month increase of 7.3%. The production of new energy passenger cars reached 1.2 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 28.3% and a month - on - month increase of 2.0% [1]. - Analysts expect the profit growth rate of US stocks in the second quarter to slow down significantly from 12% in the first quarter to 4%. The impact of tariffs has become a market focus [1]. Market Logic - The main indices of the two markets opened higher and moved up on Tuesday, and the anti - involution photovoltaic sector led the gains. The US postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9 to August 1. The US will impose reciprocal tariffs on 14 countries from August 1, 2025, which is beneficial to China's exports. Goldman Sachs predicts that Chinese listed companies will pay a record - high 3 trillion yuan in dividends by the end of 2025 [1][2]. Future Outlook - The main indices of the two markets opened higher and moved up on Tuesday, and the anti - involution photovoltaic sector led the gains. The global financial asset re - allocation is "de - Americanized", which is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares. The improvement of the national unified market is expected to boost the performance of listed companies, and the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 3,500 points [2]. Trading Strategy - For futures direction trading, it is recommended to be bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts as the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 3,500 points [2]. - For stock index option trading, it is recommended to buy long - term deep - out - of - the - money call options on stock indices as the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market [2].

Group 1 - The current consensus in the market is to combat "involutionary" competition through legal and market measures, stabilizing market prices and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity [1] - The complex causes of "involutionary" competition include local governments using industrial policies for inter-regional capacity investment competition, leading to overcapacity and price competition in related industries [1] - The shift to high-quality development emphasizes the importance of the real economy, with a focus on developing emerging industries and promoting the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing [1] Group 2 - Industrial policies and competition policies have coexisted in China, with industrial policies being necessary for promoting technological innovation and industrial upgrading, but they should be based on competitive policies [2] - The experience of Japan suggests that an overemphasis on industrial policies can lead to low growth, highlighting the need for a balance between industrial and competition policies during different growth phases [2] - During the high-quality development phase, the main drivers of economic growth are innovation and the market's ability to shift resources from low productivity to high productivity sectors [3] Group 3 - The need for a coordinated approach between industrial policies and macroeconomic policies is crucial to avoid asset bubbles and ensure effective resource allocation [3] - When industrial policies are misused by local governments for quantity-based expansion, it can lead to "involutionary" competition, reducing corporate profits and hindering innovation investment [3] - Establishing a unified national market is essential for ensuring fair competition and effective resource allocation [4] Group 4 - There is an urgent need to establish a system and institutional guarantees for achieving high-quality development, with central government-led industrial policies to promote innovation and industrial upgrading [4] - A well-coordinated relationship between industrial and competition policies is necessary to prevent local governments from undermining fair competition rules [4] - Improving the assessment systems for high-quality development and local government performance can help avoid the distortion of industrial policies into tools for regional competition [4]

Group 1 - Breaking local protectionism and market segmentation is crucial for building a unified national market, as emphasized in the Central Government's opinions [1][5] - The construction of a unified market is leading to changes in market dynamics, mechanisms, and perceptions, promoting a more integrated economic environment [1][3] - The beer industry exemplifies the shift from localized brands to national ones, with companies like Wusu Beer becoming widely available across regions [2][3] Group 2 - The government is implementing measures to facilitate cross-regional business operations, such as streamlined registration processes for company relocations [4][6] - Local governments are actively correcting discriminatory policies and enhancing market regulations to eliminate barriers to competition [5][8] - The establishment of cross-regional benefit-sharing mechanisms is being adopted to ensure equitable distribution of economic gains from industrial projects [7][9] Group 3 - Local governments are recognizing the importance of avoiding "policy lowlands" and "small markets," which can lead to financial burdens and inefficiencies [8][9] - The focus is on leveraging comparative advantages and optimizing resource allocation while respecting regional differences [9][10] - There is a shift from merely dismantling barriers to proactively building a conducive environment for industry growth and collaboration [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" for the agricultural sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 1.01 percentage points during the week of June 30 to July 4, 2025, with a weekly increase of 2.55% [15][17] - The pig farming sector is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to the recovery of breeding profits and the ongoing rise in pig prices [4][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of cost control for listed pig farming companies to navigate the pig cycle effectively [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector index closed at 2,729.26, ranking 7th among 31 first-level industries in terms of weekly performance [15][17] - The fishery sector showed the best performance with a 5.13% increase, followed by breeding, agricultural product processing, feed, and planting sectors with respective increases of 3.12%, 2.96%, 2.30%, and 1.63% [17][19] Industry Dynamics - Pig prices continued to rise, with the national average price reaching 15.35 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 4.28% [2] - Self-breeding profits increased to 119.72 yuan/head, while external piglet breeding profits improved to -26.26 yuan/head [2] - In the poultry sector, chicken prices remained under pressure due to high inventory levels, with broiler chick prices dropping to 1.36 yuan/chick, a 20% decrease week-on-week [2] Agricultural Products - Prices for wheat, corn, and soybean meal showed a week-on-week increase, with wheat averaging 2,451.06 yuan/ton (up 0.19%), corn at 2,367.14 yuan/ton (up 0.61%), and soybean meal at 2,928.00 yuan/ton (up 0.76%) [3][34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the pig farming sector, particularly companies with strong cost control such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [4] - In the poultry sector, it recommends looking at integrated industry leaders like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock for yellow feathered chickens [4] - For feed, it highlights industry leaders like Haida Group and regional leaders like Hefeng Stock as beneficiaries of the recovery in livestock demand [4] - The report also emphasizes the importance of food security, recommending companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [4]

策略报告 | 投资策略 "反内卷"与"大而美" 证券研究报告 政策与大类资产配置周观察 海内外政策要闻 习近平主持召开中央财经委员会第六次会议。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央 军委主席、中央财经委员会主任习近平7月1日上午主持召开中央财经委员会第六 次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。统一 大市场方面，会议指出，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，基本要求是"五统一、 一开放"；海洋经济方面，会议强调推动海洋经济高质量发展。 李强总理出席金砖国家领导人第十七次会晤第一阶段会议。当地时间7月6日，国 务院总理李强在里约热内卢出席金砖国家领导人第十七次会晤第一阶段会议，就 "和平与安全、全球治理改革"议题发表讲话。金砖成员国领导人与会,巴西总统 卢拉主持会议。 美国国会微弱优势通过"大而美"法案。美国国会众议院7月3日下午以218票赞 成、214票反对的表决结果通过总统特朗普推动的"大而美"税收与支出法案。 该法案主要内容包括延长特朗普在其第一个任期内于2017年通过的企业和个人 减税措施，让小费和加班工资收入免于纳税等，其核心条款是降低企业税。 国内外政策导向分析 上周（6.30-7.4） ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Sweet Potato Economy" theory encourages local enterprises to expand beyond their regions while reinvesting in their home industries, fostering a symbiotic growth effect that enhances both local and global competitiveness [2][3]. Group 1: Theoretical Insights - The "Sweet Potato Economy" metaphor illustrates local enterprises extending their reach to gather resources while maintaining a strong local foundation, promoting a dual growth model [2]. - This theory emphasizes a pragmatic approach, encouraging businesses to venture outside their localities to enhance their own growth and contribute to local industry development [2]. - It reflects a spirit of innovation and resilience, urging companies to focus on their unique strengths and long-term development while engaging in broader market opportunities [2]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The current push for a unified national market and high-level openness is seen as a strategic advantage for leveraging China's vast market resources [3]. - Breaking down regional protectionism and market entry barriers is essential for facilitating resource flow and enhancing productivity [3]. - Expanding international cooperation will strengthen China's global economic ties and improve resource allocation efficiency [3]. Group 3: Actionable Strategies - Accelerate the establishment of a unified national market to provide better support for domestic and international investments [4]. - Optimize the business environment by ensuring fair regulatory practices and protecting the rights of various business entities [4]. - Foster collaborative relationships between government and businesses to enhance administrative efficiency and responsiveness [4]. - Promote resource flow by encouraging cross-regional cooperation and utilizing digital platforms for better industry coordination [4]. - Support the growth of specialized industries through targeted policies and collaboration between local industries and educational institutions [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of high-standard connectivity of market facilities as a foundational prerequisite for breaking geographical barriers and accelerating the flow of factors, which is essential for building a unified national market [1]. Infrastructure Connectivity - The construction of the Tianshan Victory Tunnel, the longest highway tunnel in the world, is expected to significantly reduce logistics costs by approximately 70 million yuan for logistics companies in Xinjiang [1]. - The integration of transportation networks, including highways, railways, and airways, is enhancing the efficiency of the flow of people, vehicles, and goods across regions [2]. - The implementation of multimodal transport solutions, such as the "Hefei-Ningbo Zhoushan Port" sea-rail intermodal service, has reduced transit times for large export shipments from 40 days to 27 days [3]. Digital and Soft Connectivity - The introduction of virtual service windows allows businesses to complete administrative tasks remotely, enhancing the efficiency of inter-regional business operations [7]. - The establishment of a multi-level interconnected government data sharing platform aims to facilitate cross-regional and cross-departmental data sharing, improving the overall experience for businesses and citizens [7]. - The promotion of electronic procurement platforms has enabled suppliers to sell across the province with a single registration, significantly increasing the number of available products and suppliers [9]. Economic Integration and Resource Flow - The development of a unified infrastructure system supports both domestic and international market connections, facilitating the flow of resources and goods across regions [14]. - The successful transportation of high-value products via the China-Europe Railway Express demonstrates the growing sophistication of logistics networks connecting China with Central Asia [14]. - The construction of the Pinglu Canal is expected to enhance trade routes from the southwestern region of China to Southeast Asia, further integrating domestic and international markets [14][15]. Future Outlook - The continuous improvement of infrastructure and digital platforms is anticipated to enhance the efficiency of economic circulation, fostering stronger development momentum in the future [15].