据央视新闻，当地时间7月30日，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，现在就断言美联储是否会像金融市场预期的那样在9月下调联邦基金利率还为时过早。 鲍威尔在最新一轮货币政策会议后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储尚未就9月利率做出任何决定。鲍威尔表示，他们"将在下次议息会议前夕参考有 关经济的信息"。 鲍威尔表示，美联储在制定利率政策时不会考虑联邦政府的财政需求。 美国联邦储备委员会7月30日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这也是自2025年初以 来美联储第五次决定维持利率不变。 特朗普施压无果 美联储内部分歧罕见公开化 据央视新闻，近期，美国总统特朗普多次公开呼吁美联储大幅降息，甚至威胁要解雇鲍威尔，并批评美联储"缺乏行动勇气"。7月30日早些时候， 特朗普再次喊话美联储应该降息，表示维持高利率正在伤害民众。对此，鲍威尔当天未作出回应。 美联储此次决议似乎显示，政治压力并未改变其政策路径。不过，两名由特朗普任命的理事——负责监管的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼和理事克里斯托弗· 沃勒——罕见地投下反对票，支持立即降息25个基点。这是自1993年以来美联储首次出现两名理事同时反对利率决 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in September aligns with market expectations, despite dissent from two board members who advocate for a rate cut due to signs of labor market weakness [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Signals - There is internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding policy direction, as two board members voted against maintaining the current interest rate, marking the first time since 1993 that two members opposed a collective decision [2] - Powell and the majority of officials prefer to maintain a tightening stance, citing that the inflation effects from tariffs will gradually manifest over the coming months, impacting U.S. businesses and consumers [2][3] - Powell acknowledged that current monetary policy is somewhat restrictive, contributing to downward pressure on the labor market, but believes this is not sufficient to warrant a rate cut at this time [3] Group 2: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is committed to maintaining its independence, despite pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, emphasizing that monetary policy aims to achieve full employment and stable inflation, not to assist the government in reducing debt costs [3][5] - The structure of the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, which involves a committee of 12 voting members, ensures that even if Trump were to dismiss Powell, the overall direction of monetary policy would remain unchanged [5] Group 3: Future Outlook on Interest Rates - The company predicts that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to be prepared for a rate cut in the near term, with future decisions dependent on inflation trends [4] - It is anticipated that inflation may rise in the latter half of the year, driven primarily by tariffs rather than overheating economic demand, suggesting that the Fed may choose to wait for inflation peaks before implementing any easing measures [4] - Given the relatively loose fiscal policy environment, economic growth and inflation are expected to remain sticky, leading to a prolonged period of tighter monetary policy [4]

人民财讯7月31日电，中金公司（601995）研报称，美联储会议按兵不动，符合市场预期。有两位理事 反对维持利率不变，但鲍威尔与多数官员倾向维持紧缩：他们认为关税带来的通胀风险仍未解除，且劳 动力市场依旧稳固，因此不具备降息条件。鲍威尔还强调了美联储独立性，暗示不会屈服于政治压力。 中金公司认为，未来几个月关税的通胀效应将进一步显现，美联储9月或难以降息，如果特朗普关税继 续加码，降息时点还可能延后。至于特朗普施压要求降息，中金公司认为市场低估了美联储维护独立性 的决心。利率决议由12名票委共同决定，即便特朗普解雇了鲍威尔，也难以改变货币政策走向。 ...

据央视新闻，当地时间7月30日，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，现在就断言美联储是否会像金融市场预期的那样在9月下调联邦基金利率还为时过早。 特朗普施压无果 美联储内部分歧罕见公开化 据央视新闻，近期，美国总统特朗普多次公开呼吁美联储大幅降息，甚至威胁要解雇鲍威尔，并批评美联储"缺乏行动勇气"。7月30日早些时候， 特朗普再次喊话美联储应该降息，表示维持高利率正在伤害民众。对此，鲍威尔当天未作出回应。 美联储此次决议似乎显示，政治压力并未改变其政策路径。不过，两名由特朗普任命的理事——负责监管的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼和理事克里斯托弗· 沃勒——罕见地投下反对票，支持立即降息25个基点。这是自1993年以来美联储首次出现两名理事同时反对利率决议。 鲍威尔透露，沃勒和鲍曼未来几天将说明其投反对票的理由。分析师认为，二人反对或因担忧劳动力市场疲软。沃勒曾警示就业增长接近停滞， 若不放松信贷环境或引发裁员；鲍曼则担心迟迟不降息会加剧衰退风险。他们的立场与特朗普政府的降息诉求部分契合，但美联储多数官员仍持 观望，尤其顾虑关税可能推高通胀。 鲍威尔在最新一轮货币政策会议后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储尚未就9月利率做出任何决定。鲍威尔表示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in September aligns with market expectations, despite opposition from two board members [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The majority of officials, including Powell, prefer to keep a tight monetary policy due to unresolved inflation risks from tariffs and a stable labor market [1] - Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve, indicating resistance to political pressure regarding interest rate decisions [1] Group 2: Future Implications - The inflation effects of tariffs are expected to become more pronounced in the coming months, making it unlikely for the Federal Reserve to lower rates in September [1] - If Trump continues to escalate tariffs, the timing for potential rate cuts may be further delayed [1] - The market may be underestimating the Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining its independence, as the interest rate decision is made collectively by 12 voting members [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in September due to persistent inflation risks from tariffs and a stable labor market, despite some dissent among board members [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, with two board members opposing the decision to keep rates unchanged [1] - Chairman Powell and the majority of officials favor a tight monetary policy, citing unresolved inflation risks from tariffs [1] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The inflation effects from tariffs are expected to become more pronounced in the coming months, making a rate cut in September unlikely [1] - If President Trump's tariffs are further escalated, the timing for any potential rate cuts may be delayed [1] Independence of the Federal Reserve - Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve, indicating that it will not yield to political pressure regarding interest rate decisions [1] - The decision-making process involves 12 voting members, suggesting that even if Trump were to dismiss Powell, it would not significantly alter the direction of monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, indicating a cautious approach towards potential rate cuts due to ongoing inflation risks from tariffs and a stable labor market [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Signals - There is internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding policy direction, with two board members opposing the decision to keep rates unchanged, marking the first time since 1993 that two members have voted against a collective decision [2] - Powell and the majority of officials prefer to maintain a tight monetary policy, citing that the inflation effects from tariffs will gradually manifest over the coming months, impacting U.S. businesses and consumers [2][3] - Powell acknowledged that current monetary policy is somewhat restrictive, contributing to downward pressure on the labor market, despite a rebound in GDP growth [3] Group 2: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is committed to maintaining its independence, despite pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, emphasizing that monetary policy aims to achieve full employment and stable inflation, not to assist the government in reducing debt costs [3][6] - The structure of the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, which involves a committee of 12 voting members, ensures that even if Trump were to dismiss Powell, the overall direction of monetary policy would remain unchanged [6] Group 3: Future Outlook on Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is not prepared to cut rates in the near term, with future decisions dependent on inflation trends, which are expected to rise in the latter half of the year primarily due to tariffs [4][5] - The current fiscal policy environment is expected to remain relatively loose, which may lead to sustained economic growth and inflation, suggesting that monetary policy could remain tight for an extended period [5]

本月的美联储议息会议将于当地时间7月30日结束。 目前，外界普遍预计，美联储政策制定者将连续第五次维持利率目标区间在4.25%~4.5%不变。截至发 稿，芝商所的FedWatch工具显示，7月会议不降息的概率为97.4%。 然而，几乎铁定不会降息的美联储可能正面临着32年来内部最分裂的时刻。面对通胀缓解与经济放缓的 交叉信号，美联储决策层罕见分裂为三派。 激进派代表克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）与米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）据称将在本次会 议中联手反对美联储现任主席鲍威尔的政策主张，主张立即降息。若此情形成真，这将是1993年以来首 次有两位理事在同场会议中反对主席政策方向。 但这场分裂不只是货币政策的路径分歧，更是一场制度信任与政治影响力的博弈。从特朗普贴脸施压联 储到提前释放潜在继任者信息，市场开始将9月会议视作美联储是否守住独立性的关键窗口。 美联储面临32年最分裂时刻？两名理事或联合投反对票 本周的美联储议息会议，将打破自1993年以来联储维持的制度性共识。 据媒体报道，两位现任理事——克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）与米歇尔·鲍曼（ ...

预计还将达成几份协议。 预计谈判将在截止日期过后继续进行。 重申对美联储独立性的支持。 美国总统特朗普将决定未来一波贸易协议。 白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：预计美联储将认识到，降息无碍（是安全的）。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储的独立性让你能够根据数据而不是政治做出决定。 ...