【90年先例要被推翻、美联储独立性也悬了？美最高院暗示支持特朗普解雇FTC委员】最高法院的六名保守派大法官对一项保护联邦政府独立机 构长达90年的1935年Humphrey案判例提出质疑，表示真正的担忧在于国会创建了行使行政权力却不对总统负责的机构。最高院的三名自由派大法 官则对推翻长期职位保护机制提出强烈警告。不过，一位保守派法官Kavanaugh表示，他对削弱美联储独立性存在"顾虑"。详见 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周一，三大指数收跌。"美股七巨头"涨跌不一，芯片股上涨。投资者静待美联储本 周利率决议，尽管市场普遍预期将降息25个基点，但"美联储影子主席"哈塞特不够鸽派的发言打压明年 宽松预期，美股三大指数收跌，美债普遍走低。 【美股】截至收盘，道指跌215.67点，跌幅为0.45%，报47739.32点;纳指跌32.23点，跌幅为0.14%，报 23545.90点;标普500指数跌23.89点，跌幅为0.35%，报6846.51点。芯片股上涨，美光科技(MU.US)涨逾 4%，博通(AVGO.US)涨近3%，英伟达(NVDA.US)涨近2%，AMD(AMD.US)涨超1%。 派拉蒙天舞宣布1084亿美元抢购华纳兄弟探索，两家公司均收涨。数据流公司Confluent获IBM斥资110 亿美元收购，股价暴涨逾29%。原油跌近2%。 【加密货币】加密货币走高。比特币涨0.69%，报91019美元;以太坊涨2.36%，报3133.09美元。 【贵金属】COMEX黄金期货跌0.55%，报4219.75美元/盎司。现货黄金跌0.15%，报4190.76美元/盎司。 现货白银跌0.25%，报58.15美元/盎司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court's recent oral arguments signal a potential shift in the federal power structure, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve amidst challenges to the long-standing precedent protecting independent federal agencies [1][2]. Group 1: Supreme Court's Stance - The conservative majority of the Supreme Court is questioning the constitutionality of independent agencies, suggesting that the President should have control over traditionally independent federal institutions [3][5]. - Justice Neil Gorsuch criticized the Humphrey's Executor precedent as "improperly reasoned," indicating a likelihood to vote for its overturning [3]. - Chief Justice John Roberts described the precedent as a "withered shell," arguing that it no longer holds relevance due to significant changes in the FTC over the past 90 years [3]. Group 2: Concerns from Liberal Justices - Liberal justices expressed strong warnings against overturning the long-standing position protection mechanism, arguing it would grant the President unchecked power [5]. - Justice Elena Kagan highlighted the potential for the President to wield enormous, unaccountable power over independent agencies, undermining the structure of government [5]. - Justice Sonia Sotomayor questioned the court's history of overturning such significant precedents that have greatly influenced government operations [5]. Group 3: Implications for the Federal Reserve - The upcoming case regarding the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook may reflect the court's stance on the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][9]. - The court previously indicated a potential distinction for the Federal Reserve, suggesting it may not be affected by the same rulings applicable to other independent agencies [9]. - Legal experts predict that the court is likely to overturn the Humphrey's Executor precedent, which could allow the President to dismiss officials from the FTC and similar agencies [6][9]. Group 4: Trump's Administrative Theory - The Trump administration's legal team advocates for a "unitary executive theory," asserting that the President has exclusive constitutional authority to exercise executive power, including regulatory decisions [7]. - Deputy Attorney General D. John Sauer argued that the current structure creates a power vacuum where significant government authority is exercised without accountability to the President [7]. - The administration's stance has led to the dismissal of several independent agency officials, raising questions about the future of these institutions [7][8]. Group 5: Future Considerations - The ruling on the Slaughter case is expected by June 2024, which will not only determine the fate of FTC Commissioner Slaughter but also provide insights into the future of Federal Reserve Governor Cook [10][11]. - The outcome of these cases could fundamentally reshape the power dynamics within the U.S. federal government [11].

美国最高法院周一似乎准备扩大总统解雇众多监管机构负责人的权力，尽管一位关键大法官表示希望保 护美联储免受政治压力。 在长达两个半小时的口头辩论中，大法官们深入探讨了总统特朗普主张几乎不受约束的解雇机构领导权 力的界限，尽管联邦法律规定不得因政策分歧解雇这些官员。 布雷特·卡瓦诺大法官直截了当地询问了总检察长D·约翰·绍尔，经济学家们担忧特朗普在此案中全面获 胜将危及美联储理事会的独立性。 "我对此表示认同，"这位特朗普任命的大法官表示。 不过，卡瓦诺与另外五位保守派大法官仍如预期般基本采纳了政府主张，总统有权加强对联邦贸易委员 会、国家劳资关系委员会等数十个行政部门监管机构的控制。 尼尔·戈萨奇大法官指出，这些委员会构成由未经选举的官僚管理的"第四政府部门"，其运作方式不 当，且不受总统或国会直接监督。 周一审理的案件涉及特朗普解雇民主党委员丽贝卡·斯劳特，她自2018年起在联邦贸易委员会任职。最 高法院将于明年1月审理另一宗案件，涉及特朗普试图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克。 尼尔·戈萨奇大法官指出，这些委员会构成由未经选举的官僚管理的"第四政府部门"，其运作方式不 当，且不受总统或国会直接监督。 特朗普并未指控 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Structure and Function - The Federal Reserve System consists of three key entities: the Board of Governors, 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is responsible for monetary policy formulation[2] - The FOMC has 12 voting members, including 7 governors from the Board, the New York Fed President, and 4 rotating regional Fed Presidents, meeting 8 times a year to vote on monetary policy changes[2] Group 2: Trump's Influence on the Federal Reserve - With Powell's retirement, Trump is expected to nominate two new governors in 2026, potentially increasing his influence to 4 out of 7 governors, exceeding 50% of the Board[3] - The selection of a new Fed Chair will require a balance of loyalty to Trump and market trust, complicating the nomination process[3] Group 3: Challenges for the New Fed Chair - The new Fed Chair will face challenges in balancing political pressure from Trump with the Fed's independence, especially in a high inflation and weakening labor market context[4] - The new Chair's influence in 2026 may be limited as they will need time to establish authority and navigate existing policies[4] Group 4: Impact on Asset Prices - The impact of the Fed Chair transition on asset prices will vary by scenario, with short-term effects on long-term Treasury yields likely minimal, depending more on economic conditions[5] - Long-term effects on the dollar and stock market will depend on the new Chair's control over the Fed and potential policy reforms[5]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is becoming increasingly complex, with concerns about potential political influence affecting monetary policy decisions [2][3]. Group 1: Appointment Dynamics - President Trump has indicated he has chosen a successor for Fed Chair Powell, with NEC Director Kevin Hassett being named as a potential frontrunner [3]. - Concerns have arisen among investors that Hassett may prioritize appeasing Trump over maintaining the Fed's independence in setting interest rates [3][4]. - The potential nomination of Hassett has led to a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield by 11 basis points, reflecting market anxiety [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Market participants are attempting to gauge the future Fed Chair's stance, whether dovish or hawkish, amidst uncertainty about how they will act once in position [5]. - If trust in the Fed's independence erodes, investors may demand higher returns on U.S. debt, which could inadvertently raise long-term interest rates [6]. Group 3: Structural Considerations - The Fed's decision-making structure, which includes multiple voting members, is designed to mitigate political influence, ensuring that the Chair cannot unilaterally dictate policy [6]. - The potential reshuffling of Trump's economic advisory team adds another layer of complexity to the appointment process, with implications for the NEC and CEA leadership [6][7]. Group 4: Legal and Political Challenges - The ongoing legal situation regarding Governor Lisa Cook's potential dismissal could significantly impact the composition of the Fed's board, raising questions about its political independence [8]. - If Cook loses her case, Trump could effectively shape the majority of the board, which may lead to concerns about the politicization of the Fed and its impact on inflation [9].

美国总统特朗普上周发出了迄今为止最强烈的暗示，表明他已选定美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者。投资者 对此表示担忧。 在对这十几位候选人进行了数月的猜测后，特朗普终于在上周表示，他知道谁将由他提名成为美国经济 中最有权势的人物。仅仅几天后，在一次内阁会议上，特朗普特别点名国家经济委员会（NEC）主任凯 文·哈塞特是"潜在的美联储主席"，并补充道，"我们被允许这么说吗？" 彭博11月25日的一篇报道称哈塞特是执掌美联储的"领跑者"，随后10年期美债收益率上涨了11个基点。 据英国《金融时报》援引知情人士的话称，债券投资者在上个月初告诉财政部，他们担心哈塞特会为了 安抚特朗普而极力推动大幅降低借贷成本。 但美联储利率制定委员会的结构有助于防范政治影响：美联储主席只是12名投票者中的一员，不能单方 面否决多数人的决定。 "会议桌上代表了各种观点和政策方针，然后每个人都有一票，"美联储理事会前顾问Bill English表 示。"设立委员会是有原因的，如果委员会不同意主席的意见，那么主席有可能输掉投票，虽然这种情 况在过去从未发生过。" 据该报道，财政部与"华尔街主要银行高管、资产管理巨头以及美国债务市场其他大玩家"进行的一对 ...

美国联邦最高法院于周一开庭审理的一桩案件，或将透露美联储理事莉萨・库克的仕途走向。此前，美 国总统唐纳德・特朗普为加强对美联储的管控，试图将库克免职。 此次最高法院开庭的次日，美国联邦公开市场委员会将召开为期两天的议息会议，会议或宣布新一轮降 息。 存在争议的特殊豁免权 本案的核心问题在于，最高法院是否会重申其此前的表态 —— 即即便其他机构官员无法享有职位保 护，美联储官员的相关权利仍应得到保障。 这一信号源自最高法院在 5 月 22 日作出的一项裁决，该裁决允许特朗普暂时罢免另外两家机构的官 员，理由是这些官员行使的职权属于总统管辖的行政分支职能范畴。而最高法院在裁决的附带意见中指 出，此案裁决 "未必会影响美联储"。 此次庭审聚焦特朗普试图罢免联邦贸易委员会民主党籍官员丽贝卡・凯利・斯劳特一案，该案将成为 1 月 21 日库克罢免案庭审的前奏。这两起案件将检验最高法院在今年 5 月作出的一项裁决 —— 该裁决似 乎为美联储开辟了特殊豁免空间，以保护美联储理事免受总统的任意罢免。 最高法院称，美联储是一个 "结构独特的准私营实体"，有别于其他独立机构。 即便这起联邦贸易委员会相关案件对美联储不产生影响，其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report by Candriam suggests that doubts regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve could lead to a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve by 50 to 100 basis points [1] Group 1: Impact on Yield Curve - If the credibility of the Federal Reserve is damaged, short-term yields are expected to decline, reflecting market expectations for a more significant reduction in key interest rates [1] - Conversely, long-term yields are anticipated to rise as investors will demand a higher term premium to compensate for uncertainties regarding the coherence of monetary policy and the Fed's ability to control inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Candriam's chief economist Florence Pisani and global bond head Philippe Dehoux indicates that if the independence of the Federal Reserve is questioned, the U.S. Treasury yield curve could steepen by 50 to 100 basis points [1] Group 1 - A loss of credibility for the Federal Reserve would lead to a decline in short-term yields, reflecting market expectations for a more significant reduction in key interest rates [1] - Conversely, long-term yields are expected to rise as investors demand higher term premiums to compensate for uncertainties regarding the consistency of monetary policy and the Fed's ability to control inflation [1]