Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has indicated that there will be no changes in the short term, and market expectations for preventive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve starting in September are deemed correct [1] - The importance of the Federal Reserve's independence is emphasized, as it is crucial for maintaining credibility in economic policy, which in turn lowers borrowing costs and supports sustainable growth [1] - The theme of currency depreciation remains unchanged, with gold prices surpassing $3,650, reflecting a monthly increase of 6% and a year-to-date increase of 40% [1] Group 2 - The current economic environment suggests a favorable outlook for the stock market, contingent on strong income and profit growth, regulatory relaxation, healthy balance sheets, record capital expenditure, lower policy rates, and upcoming fiscal stimulus measures [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is around 4%, which is considered high, and the market has nearly priced in the peak of dovish sentiment relative to current data [1] - A significant sell-off is anticipated if future predictions hold true, indicating potential volatility in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump campaign is accelerating its strategy regarding the Federal Reserve as the election approaches, focusing on potential candidates for the Fed chair position if Trump returns to the White House [2][9]. Group 1: Meeting Details - Scott Bessent, a former Treasury official and current economic advisor to Trump, hosted a private dinner with three former Fed officials to discuss potential successors for the Fed chair [2][3]. - The meeting shifted the discussion of potential Fed candidates from media speculation to a semi-public operation, with Bessent bringing a list of candidates including current Fed Governor Lael Brainard and former economic advisor Larry Kudlow [3]. Group 2: Candidate Perspectives - Lawrence Lindsey emphasized the need for the future Fed chair to establish accountability with Congress regarding inflation targets, suggesting a quantifiable approach to the 2% inflation goal [3][5]. - Kevin Warsh advocated for a strategic silence from the Fed, proposing a shift from forward guidance to data-triggered thresholds, while expressing cautious openness to returning to public office under specific conditions [4][8]. - James Bullard, known for his hawkish stance, proposed raising the long-term inflation target range to 2.5%-3% and suggested establishing a shadow FOMC to help the market digest policy differences [5][8]. Group 3: Candidate Recommendations - Lindsey supports Warsh for the Fed chair position due to his market trust and connections in Congress, while Warsh recommends Bullard for his academic authority and experience [6][7]. - Bullard suggests Lindsey as a candidate, arguing that an old-school hawk could quickly restore the Fed's credibility [7]. Group 4: Implications for the Market - The meeting's outcomes have led to immediate reactions in the market, with hedge fund managers adjusting their forecasts for interest rate cuts in late 2025 and the dollar index rising by 0.4% [9]. - Analysts warn that the meticulous preparation of Fed personnel by the Trump campaign could undermine the central bank's independence, making it a daily risk factor for traders [9]. Group 5: Next Steps - Bessent requested the three former officials to submit a joint memo by October 1, outlining an expanded candidate list, policy framework options, and key points for congressional hearings [8].

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of the "Federal Reserve independence shock" on the U.S. economy, emphasizing direct and indirect interference with the Fed's operations [3] - It suggests that the traditional economic tools to suppress inflation may be compromised, potentially leading to a "re-inflation" scenario in the U.S. economy [3] - The report indicates that the dollar's status as a reserve currency and the credibility of U.S. institutions may be affected, with commodity markets, especially precious metals, likely benefiting from global investment diversification trends [3] Group 2 - The report discusses the August inflation data, noting a negative CPI of -0.4% and a narrowing PPI decline of -2.9%, indicating a divergence in inflation trends [5][25] - It points out that the core CPI has shown resilience, with a continuous increase over four months, reflecting a mild recovery in domestic demand [5][25] - The report emphasizes that the negative inflation implies a passive rise in real interest rates, which may prompt the central bank to lower financing costs for the real economy [5][25] Group 3 - The report on Hangzhou Oxygen Plant (杭氧股份) indicates a steady performance in H1 2025, with revenue of 73.27 billion and a net profit of 4.79 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.92% and 9.61% respectively [19][40] - It highlights the industrial gas segment's revenue growth of 14% and a gross margin of 21.18%, suggesting a potential bottom reversal in the industrial gas market [19][41] - The equipment segment shows promising results, with a significant increase in orders for petrochemical equipment, indicating successful overseas expansion [19][42] Group 4 - The report on Youyou Green Energy (优优绿能) emphasizes the company's focus on high-power charging modules, projecting revenues of 13.5 billion, 16.2 billion, and 19.5 billion for 2025-2027, with a net profit forecast of 2.0 billion, 3.0 billion, and 4.1 billion respectively [11][35] - It notes the strong overseas market performance, with a gross margin of 50.2% for international sales, significantly higher than domestic margins [11][33] - The report highlights the company's commitment to R&D, with a focus on product innovation and a high R&D expense ratio compared to sales and management costs [11][34] Group 5 - The report on Longxin General (隆鑫通用) indicates a robust performance in H1 2025, with revenue of 97.52 billion and a net profit of 10.74 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.21% and 82.26% respectively [12][36] - It highlights the successful overseas expansion of the "Wuji" brand, with significant growth in sales and a strong marketing presence across various platforms [12][37] - The report projects an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 19.06 billion, 23.07 billion, and 27.13 billion, reflecting the company's strong growth trajectory [12][39]

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate Banking Committee voted along party lines to support the nomination of Stephen Milan, a Trump advisor, for a short-term position on the Federal Reserve Board, with a vote of 13 in favor and 11 against, indicating he may receive a confirmation vote from the full Senate on Monday [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to announce its first interest rate cut since December, amid signs of slowing job growth, during its meeting scheduled for September 16-17 [1] - Milan, currently the Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, stated he would join the Federal Reserve on an unpaid leave basis, raising questions about his future role after the short-term appointment [1] Group 2 - Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the central bank, with Cook challenging her removal through legal means [2] - A judge issued a temporary restraining order preventing Trump from terminating Cook, highlighting ongoing tensions regarding the administration's influence over the Federal Reserve [2]

【要闻回顾】 周二晚上，当美联储理事库克就被解雇一事提起的诉讼正在法庭上进行时，一名法官阻止了特朗普总统 解雇她。 美国地方法院法官科布解释了授予库克临时禁令的决定，禁止她被免职，他写道："美联储独立性的公 众利益支持库克复职。" 9月10日，COMEX白银库存录得16271.13吨，较上一日增加75.32吨；comex白银周三（9月10日）收报 41.65美元/盎司，下跌0.68%，comex白银价格日内最高上探至41.78美元/盎司，最低触及41.15美元/盎 司。 最新comex白银库存数据： | 日期 | comex白银库存量(吨) | 增持/减持（吨） | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-9-10 | 16271.13 | 75.32 | | 2025-9-09 | 16195.81 | 56.26 | 法官指的是库克的抵押贷款欺诈指控，特朗普将其作为解雇第一位黑人女性美联储理事的理由。 预计最高法院将对此案拥有最终决定权，这是美国总统首次以所谓的理由解雇美联储理事。 科布的决定意味着，库克将参加9月16日开始的美联储下一次会议。预计美联储将在为期两天的会议上 降息。 特朗普在 ...

周二晚间， 一名联邦法官批准了对美联储理事Lisa Cook的临时禁令，暂时阻止了特朗普总统将其解职的企图 。这一裁决是Cook本人乃至整个央行独立性的 一次重大法律胜利，它为Cook出席下周的会议并参与投票扫清了道路。 紧接着在周三上午，焦点转移至参议院银行委员会。共和党人火速推进了特朗普提名的顾问Stephen Miran的任命确认程序，试图填补美联储理事会的另一个 空缺席位。此举为本周参议院全院表决创造了可能， 一旦通过，Miran或将得以加入同一场议息会议。 在今年夏季一系列疲软的就业数据公布后，市场普遍预期美联储将在下周的会议上降息25个基点。 Timiraos表示，Cook一贯在政策上与主席鲍威尔保持一致，而Miran是否会投票支持更大幅度的降息尚不明朗。 这场关于与会资格的争夺将决定会议出席情况，它的重要性不仅在于它影响当下的投票结果，更在于与会官员将提交新的季度经济预测，而这份预测将塑造市 场对美联储未来政策路径的预期。 一场围绕美联储控制权的政治角力正趋于白热化，下周的FOMC会议不仅关系到利率决策，更是一场围绕美联储独立性展开的激烈博弈。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick ...

美国司法部9月10日紧急向哥伦比亚特区联邦上诉法院递交上诉通知，要求推翻地方法官JiaCobb一天前作 出的临时禁令，该禁令阻止总统特朗普以房贷欺诈为由即时罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克。这场罕见的府院 司法对决，不仅决定库克能否参加9月16日至17日的美联储利率会议，更被视为特朗普能否重塑美联储独 立性的风向标。 9月9日深夜，地方法官Cobb在33页裁决书中写道，总统援引的房贷欺诈指控既未经过行政程序验证，也 未给库克任何申辩机会，遑论《联邦储备法》明文规定理事须有正当理由方可被免职。她指出，特朗普仅 凭一条社交媒体帖子就宣布解雇，可能侵犯库克享有的宪法正当程序权利，并给美国央行信誉造成无法弥 补的伤害。因此，法院发布临时限制令，在诉讼进行期间冻结罢免决定，确保库克继续履职。 历史上，最高法院在涉及央行独立的案件中极少介入程序性争议，但若特朗普政府以国家经济紧急为由请 求大法官介入，不排除出现罕见加班开庭的情形。 白宫发言人KushDesai在裁决后发表声明，坚称总统依法行事，并指库克利用虚假信息获取优惠房贷，已 不适合继续监管金融机构。然而，联邦住房金融局（FHFA）局长BillPulte提供的指控材料尚未公 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The court issued a preliminary injunction to temporarily block Trump from removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook from office. This decision further solidifies the baseline expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September, marginally reduces the possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut, and slightly lowers the probability of three cumulative rate cuts within the year. The decision has limited ability to drive long - term interest rates significantly lower, and the marginal slowdown of rate cuts drags on risk sentiment [4]. - The case is still in litigation, and subsequent uncertainties remain. The market should not over - price it as a settled matter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Points Legal Reasoning - The court tends to adopt a narrow interpretation of "For Cause" in the Federal Reserve Act, which should focus on an official's on - the - job performance rather than pre - appointment private matters. Trump's dismissal reason targeting Cook's pre - appointment mortgage statement dispute does not constitute "For Cause" [3]. - There is a lack of due process. The Fed governor's position is a "property interest" protected by due process. Trump did not provide prior notice, clear evidence, or a meaningful opportunity for defense, which fails to meet the minimum requirements [3]. Impact on the Market - The injunction allows Cook to participate in next week's FOMC meeting, strengthening the 25 - basis - point rate cut expectation in September, marginally reducing the possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut, and slightly lowering the probability of three cumulative rate cuts within the year. The decision alone has limited ability to drive long - term interest rates significantly lower [4]. - For risk assets, the marginal slowdown of rate cuts under the current recession - inclined narrative has a certain negative impact on risk sentiment [4]. Litigation Progress - The case is still in the litigation process. The background that the judge was appointed by Biden may lead to a more politically - charged public interpretation, and subsequent uncertainties remain [5]. - In a similar case, the Federal Trade Commission's Slaughter was allowed to return to work after a favorable ruling but was then blocked by the Supreme Court's temporary stay order, indicating the complexity of the case's development [5].

随着美国经济政策的风向标再次转向，特朗普总统正通过一系列大胆举措，试图加强对美联储的掌控 力。白宫高级经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）的美联储理事提名在参议院金融委员会的投票中 迈出关键一步，这一进展不仅为特朗普在美联储决策桌上增添了一位重要盟友，也可能对美国未来的利 率政策和货币调控方向产生深远影响。然而，米兰的提名之路并非一帆风顺，时间紧迫的确认程序和党 派间的激烈争斗为这一提名蒙上了一层不确定性。 米兰提名获参议院金融委员会通过，党派分歧明显 参议院金融委员会的激烈交锋 提名背后的政治考量 民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）直言不讳地指出，米兰的提名"是特朗普对其忠诚度的 考验"。她认为，米兰在美联储的每一票都可能受到特朗普政治意图的直接影响，这种"从属关系"可能 威胁美联储作为独立机构的公信力。与此同时，共和党参议员、参议院银行委员会主席蒂姆·斯科特 （Tim Scott）则高度赞扬米兰，称其拥有"深厚的经验、久经考验的领导力以及确保美国经济保持强劲 和竞争力的明确承诺"。斯科特的表态无疑为米兰的提名增添了更多政治背书，也为后续的参议院全体 审议铺平了道路 ...

美国联邦法院近日作出重要裁决，暂时禁止前总统唐纳德·特朗普罢免联邦储备委员会（简称美联储） 现任理事丽莎·库克。这一决定在金融界引发广泛关注，被视为维护美联储独立性的关键举措。 据《华尔街日报》9日报道，华盛顿特区联邦法院法官雅各布·弗里德曼在审理此案时，批准了库克提出 的紧急禁令申请。这项裁决意味着库克将继续保留其在美联储7人理事会中的席位，特别是在即将于16 日至17日举行的美联储货币政策会议前夕，这一决定显得尤为重要。法官在长达15页的判决书中明确指 出，库克在诉讼中胜诉的可能性相当高，并认为特朗普的解职决定未能满足《联邦储备法》规定的正当 理由标准。 这场法律纠纷始于上月28日，当时库克向华盛顿特区联邦法院提起诉讼，挑战特朗普的解职令。在长达 30页的起诉书中，库克将这一行为描述为史无前例且完全违法的政治操作。她指控特朗普试图通过施压 美联储来影响利率政策，这严重威胁了美联储的独立性。值得注意的是，这起诉讼不仅将特朗普列为被 告，还包括整个美联储理事会及其主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。库克在诉状中解释称，这些机构和个人被列为 被告是因为他们 美联储发言人在回应此事时表示：我们将严格遵守法院的最终裁决。这一表态凸 ...