仔细看一下他频繁出现的这些地区，你会发现其中有一个令人吃惊的相似之处，甚至可以说，这背后隐 藏着一个令人不寒而栗的真相！刚果以其丰富的稀有矿产著称；巴基斯坦也是一个矿产资源大国；加沙 地区连接着全球石油供应的生命线；至于委内瑞拉，刚刚被发现拥有超级巨大的油田，美国随即就祭出 了制裁的大棒。 阅世如阅卷，下笔有锦书在这里，听见中国走向世界的号角。大家好，欢迎收看本期的锦书时评。今天 我们聊聊那个总是言辞锋利、风头一时无两的特朗普。你是否注意到，最近他在国际舞台上的活跃度极 高，而且所涉足的领域非常广泛？他时常出现在不同的地方——一会儿到刚果一探究竟，一会儿又跳出 来介入印巴冲突，转瞬间又开始对加沙局势指指点点，甚至不放过委内瑞拉，准备对其实施制裁。 这哪里是巧合呢？这无疑是一场精确至极的资源争夺战！ 很多人可能会觉得，现如今的国际局势顶多就是些口水战，没什么大不了的。但如果你这样想，那你就 大错特错了！目前所看到的表面平静，其实只是表象，真正的较量早已悄然进行。 这场较量的核心，绝不仅仅是我们日常新闻中提到的那些地缘政治问题，也不是各国间航母的比拼。真 正的战场，正是现代国际秩序的根基——美元霸权体系，它是否还 ...

2026年5月，现任美联储主席鲍威尔将卸任，美国总统特朗普有权提名一位新的主席接替，目前选拔工作已进入关键阶段。 在候选人范围从九人精简至三人之际，特朗普公开暗示哈塞特或成最终人选的消息引发广泛争议。作为掌握美国货币政策走向、影响全球金融格局的核心职 位，美联储主席的遴选本应基于专业能力与政策远见，而特朗普对哈塞特的推举却令人质疑其决策逻辑。 哈塞特与特朗普的渊源可追溯至其生涯早期。 2011年特朗普尚未问鼎总统宝座时，笃信自由主义经济学的哈塞特曾对特朗普提出的关税政策极尽批判之能事，称其"不切实际且危害美国经济"。然而当特 朗普成功当选后，这位昔日批评者迅速完成角色转换，成为特朗普经济政策的坚定拥趸。 懂得见风使舵的哈塞特很快获得"不计前嫌"的特朗普的赏识，成为后者的亲信，他在特朗普第一任期里担任政府经济顾问委员会主席、现任白宫国家经济委 员会主任。 2020年新冠疫情爆发初期，他断言"到5月中旬美国新冠死亡人数将归零"。这一乐观预测与随后疫情在美国本土的持续蔓延形成尖锐对比，实际死亡人数不 仅未如预期归零，反而在数月间持续攀升。 直至2023年拜登政府才宣布结束新冠疫情国家紧急状态，哈塞特的预测误差跨度长 ...

日央行的助攻。 现在对哈塞特当选美联储下届主席的概率已经上升至80%。 哈塞特以"激进降息"著称，其一旦掌握美联储，则可能标志着延续四十年的美联储模式发生根本转变， 从独立，以通胀为敌的技术机构，转变为服务于政治周期的政策工具。 这不是换主席，而是关于美元资产核心信用的投票。 哈塞特的政策倾向早已公开。若其担任美联储主席，将"立即降息"。市场要重新定价一个全新的美联储 ——其反应函数将极度偏向鸽派，甚至可能容忍更高的通胀。这意味着美元赖以生存的利率优势将快速 消蚀。 22年的时候，当通胀飙升至9%，美债并未像历史惯例那样对冲股市下跌，反而与股票同步暴跌。哈塞 特若领导美联储，市场担心"通胀斗士"的信念将被"增长至上"的哲学取代。 一旦通胀预期脱锚，美债的实质价值将遭侵蚀，其作为全球抵押品之王(超过60万亿美元金融衍生品以 美债为担保)的地位将开始动摇。这显然比简单的价格下跌更具破坏性。 一些聪明的资金已经开始行动。 黄金价格在悄无声息中逼近历史高点，央行购金量保持强劲。日元多头头寸近期显著增加。这些传统的 避险资产和货币，正成为对冲美元体系不确定性的重要工具。 日央行意外释放强烈加息信号，市场定价其12月加息 ...

Core Insights - The stark difference in subscription rates between U.S. and Chinese dollar bonds highlights a significant shift in global investor confidence, with China's bonds attracting a subscription rate of 30 times compared to the U.S. bonds' 2.5 to 2.7 times [1][4][8] Group 1: Subscription Rates and Market Dynamics - China's recent issuance of $4 billion in dollar-denominated sovereign bonds received an overwhelming $118.2 billion in subscriptions, marking a historic achievement [4] - The 5-year bonds from China were particularly popular, achieving a subscription rate of 33 times, showcasing strong international demand [4] - In contrast, U.S. Treasury bonds are struggling to attract buyers, with only a few "staunch allies" continuing to purchase them, indicating a decline in their desirability [4][6] Group 2: Economic Context and Investor Sentiment - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding military expenditures, leading to skepticism about the U.S.'s ability to meet its debt obligations [6] - Political gridlock in the U.S. over fiscal reforms has resulted in a persistent government shutdown, contributing to an unstable investment environment [6] - In contrast, China's strong trade surplus and substantial foreign exchange reserves position it as a "stabilizer" in the global economy, enhancing investor confidence in its bonds [8] Group 3: Strategic Implications of China's Bond Issuance - China's issuance of dollar bonds aims to challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar and provide an alternative for countries facing debt crises, potentially undermining U.S. financial strategies [10] - The ability for countries to repay Chinese bonds in renminbi instead of dollars represents a strategic move to increase the renminbi's share in international finance, thereby reducing the dollar's global circulation [10][12] - The current U.S. monetary policy, characterized by excessive money supply, poses risks to the dollar's credibility, with potential consequences for global financial stability [12]

Core Insights - The surge in gold prices is attributed to the unprecedented challenges facing the dollar's dominance, which has been a longstanding global financial system [1][10] - The current geopolitical tensions are not the sole cause; rather, the erosion of the dollar's credibility is a significant underlying issue [3][8] Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. national debt has reached approximately $40 trillion, translating to over $110,000 per citizen, growing at an alarming rate of 8.5% annually, outpacing the economic growth rate of 2.3% [3][5] - The total U.S. national debt was only $900 billion in 1985, indicating a dramatic increase and a shift from being viewed as a safe asset to a source of global risk [5][10] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - Global central banks are increasingly shifting their reserves from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold, with the total value of gold reserves surpassing that of U.S. debt for the first time in 25 years [5][12] - China has reduced its holdings of U.S. debt by over $50 billion, while Japan has cut approximately $30 billion, reflecting a broader trend among nations to diversify away from dollar dependency [6][12] Group 3: Strategic Shift to Gold - The current gold purchasing trend among central banks is a strategic move to mitigate risks associated with over-reliance on a single currency [8][10] - Gold's unique characteristic as a non-debt asset makes it an attractive alternative, as it cannot be frozen or devalued by any single nation [12][20] Group 4: Future Implications - The potential for the U.S. to devalue the dollar or create a new digital currency could significantly impact the global financial order, leading to a re-evaluation of existing debt structures [13][15] - The ongoing shift towards gold reflects a broader societal consensus on the value of trust and stability in an era of rampant credit expansion [22]

Core Insights - Argentina, once one of the wealthiest countries in the world, is now trapped in a middle-income trap with rampant inflation, high unemployment, and rapid currency devaluation [4] - The Argentine central bank raised the benchmark interest rate by 950 basis points to a historic high of 69.5%, but due to hyperinflation, the real purchasing power of savings is significantly diminished [4][6] - The economic crisis in Argentina can be traced back to the 1970s when the government heavily borrowed, leading to a debt crisis exacerbated by the U.S. Federal Reserve's tightening policies in the early 1980s [4][6] Historical Context - In the 1970s, Argentina's external debt surged from $25 billion to $75 billion within four years, primarily used for subsidies and infrastructure with little return on investment [4] - The 1982 debt default led to the intervention of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which imposed austerity measures that facilitated the extraction of Argentine assets by Wall Street [4][6] - The 1989 economic reforms under President Menem, which pegged the peso to the dollar, initially reduced inflation but ignored the cyclical nature of the dollar [4][6] Recent Developments - By 1999, Argentina's unemployment rate reached 18%, and government debt ballooned to $150 billion, culminating in a second debt default in 2002 [6] - The government’s decision to lift foreign exchange controls post-2015 has led to an annual inflation rate of 80%, with the high benchmark interest rate seen as a deceptive measure [6] - Argentina's decline from a prosperous nation to a serial defaulter serves as a cautionary tale for other developing countries regarding the fragility of economic sovereignty under the dollar-dominated system [6]

Group 1 - India has responded decisively to the U.S. tariffs on its auto parts and steel by imposing retaliatory tariffs worth $725 million on specific U.S. goods, citing violations of WTO rules [3] - The Indian government recognizes that its exports to the U.S. account for only about 18% of its total exports, providing a buffer against U.S. pressure [5] - India's domestic market strength is a crucial factor in its strategy, as it seeks to assert its independence and not be seen as an economic subordinate to the U.S. [5] Group 2 - Modi's government is strategically repositioning India on the global stage by actively participating in the BRICS summit, aiming to take on the role of a representative for the Global South [7] - At the BRICS summit, India supported reforms to the International Monetary Fund and challenged the dominance of the U.S. dollar, indicating a significant shift in its foreign policy [9] - The actions taken by India reflect a desire for a multipolar world and a rejection of being a pawn in the geopolitical game dominated by major powers [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, emphasizing that the dollar is a super-sovereign currency while US Treasuries represent sovereign debt. This distinction highlights the complexities of US monetary policy and its implications for global finance [1][2]. Group 1: US Monetary Policy and Sovereign Debt - The US Supreme Court reaffirmed the independence of the Federal Reserve, indicating ongoing tensions between the Trump administration and the Fed regarding monetary policy and the status of the dollar [2][3]. - The article argues that the US government faces challenges in managing its debt without compromising the dollar's super-sovereign status, leading to the need for complex debt restructuring methods [6][15]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Credit Risk - The article presents a formula for understanding the long-term yield of any country's debt when expressed in dollars, indicating that the yield is influenced by the federal funds rate and the country's sovereign credit risk premium [9][11]. - It suggests that concerns about rising 10-year Treasury yields may be misplaced, as these yields should not be viewed as risk-free rates but rather as reflecting credit risk [11][12]. Group 3: Currency Manipulation and Trade Policy - The US government can influence the value of the dollar indirectly by affecting the monetary policies of other sovereign nations, such as through tariff policies that compel other countries to appreciate their currencies [19][21]. - The article discusses historical instances, such as the Plaza Accord, where coordinated efforts among major economies were used to manage currency values and address trade imbalances [28][29]. Group 4: Debt Management Strategies - The article posits that the current trade war can be viewed as a global debt restructuring effort, where the US seeks to alleviate its debt burden by compelling other nations to strengthen their currencies against the dollar [32][34]. - It highlights the role of Japan's central bank as a secondary central bank for the US, suggesting that Japan's monetary policy decisions are often influenced by US needs [26][33].

Group 1 - The total U.S. national debt has reached $36 trillion, nearly 1.5 times the GDP, with annual interest payments amounting to $1.1 trillion [2] - The largest creditors of U.S. debt are domestic individuals and institutions, holding 76% of the total debt, indicating a high level of "internal circulation" [3] - Major domestic holders include individual and household investors ($2.1 trillion), the Federal Reserve ($4.2 trillion), commercial banks ($3.8 trillion), and pension funds [3] Group 2 - International creditors hold about 24% of U.S. debt, primarily from Japan, China, and the UK, with Japan being the largest external creditor at approximately $1.07 trillion [4] - China has reduced its holdings by over $500 billion in the past decade, currently holding about $760.8 billion, making it the second-largest external creditor [4] - Other notable external creditors include the Cayman Islands ($397 billion), Saudi Arabia ($135.6 billion), and various European countries [5] Group 3 - The ongoing increase in U.S. debt and fiscal deficit has raised questions about the creditworthiness and safety of U.S. debt, influenced by geopolitical factors [5] - Major external creditors like Japan, China, and the UK have been reducing their holdings, while neighboring countries like Canada and Mexico are increasing their investments in U.S. debt [5]