证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 20 日 ——2025 年 10 月经济数据点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com "三驾马车"承压，主要经济指标走弱 核心观点：从 10 月数据上看，支撑 GDP 的"三驾马车"消费、投资和净出口压力 增大，短期经济增长或面临一定的挑战，考虑到今年前三季度经济表现较好，完成 25 年总量+5%的经济增长目标压力不大。10 月社零同比+2.9%，增速连续五个月回 落。10 月进出口总值同比较上月大幅下滑，出口同比-0.8%，较上月-9.2pct，对欧 盟出口较上月大幅下降 13.3pct。1-10 月固投完成额负增长（yoy-1.7%）、基建（不 含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业，下同）累计同比亦负增长（yoy-0.1%）与 房地产开发投资持续探底（yoy-14.7%）凸显传统增长模式乏力。未来半年政策利 率下调与增量工具落地或成关键支撑 ...

Economic Performance - The GDP of Hunan, Hubei, and Jiangxi provinces reached 110,796.38 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 7,092.83 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] - Hubei's GDP was 44,875.62 billion yuan, growing by 6.0%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - Hunan and Jiangxi achieved GDPs of 40,240.56 billion yuan and 25,680.2 billion yuan, respectively, both growing by 5.4%, exceeding the national growth rate by 0.2 percentage points [1] Innovation and High-tech Investment - Hubei's high-tech industry investment grew by 8.3%, outpacing overall investment growth by 1.8 percentage points [2] - The added value of Hubei's high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 13.5% and 10.9%, respectively [2] - Hunan's high-tech manufacturing added value grew by 13.8%, 6.0 percentage points higher than the overall industrial growth rate [3] - Jiangxi's high-tech manufacturing added value increased by 12.4%, with the new energy vehicle sector growing by 54.1% [3] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Hunan, Hubei, and Jiangxi reached 44,285.26 billion yuan, with growth rates exceeding the national average [4] - Hubei's retail sales for new energy vehicles and home appliances grew by 19.9% and 21.6%, respectively [4] - In Hunan, retail sales of smart devices increased significantly, with smart phones growing by 81.6% [4] Trade and Exports - The total import and export value of Hubei, Hunan, and Jiangxi reached 13,663.5 billion yuan, with Hubei's growth rate surpassing the national average by 21.3 percentage points [7] - Hubei's exports of electromechanical products accounted for over 50% of its total exports, reaching 2,191.7 billion yuan, a growth of 19.8% [8] - Jiangxi's exports of photovoltaic products increased by 39.3%, while lithium battery exports surged by 90.5% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to shift China's economic policy focus from infrastructure investment to increasing residents' income and boosting consumption, as the current reliance on investment has led to insufficient demand in the economy [2][3][5]. Investment and Economic Policy - The trend of over-reliance on investment has been evident since 1998, with negative impacts becoming more pronounced after 2008, resulting in a long-term low share of consumption in GDP [3][15]. - Current economic policies should prioritize improving residents' income through effective income distribution adjustments, such as mechanisms for wage increases linked to corporate profits [3][19]. - The article critiques the traditional focus on infrastructure and real estate investment, suggesting that funds should be redirected towards social welfare and living standards [5][6][15]. Employment and Income Distribution - There is a pressing need to address employment issues, particularly for the youth, with over 10 million university graduates entering the job market annually [6][10]. - The article highlights the importance of accurately measuring unemployment, especially in rural areas, where many migrant workers face job losses [7][10]. - A proposed income distribution mechanism should ensure that wage increases are legislated and not left to corporate discretion, addressing the slow growth of employee wages [17][19]. New Infrastructure and Digital Economy - The article advocates for a balanced view on new infrastructure investments, recognizing the necessity of certain projects while cautioning against hasty investments in areas like 5G, which may not yet have a clear demand [4][14]. - The concept of the digital economy is critiqued for its vague definitions, with many companies misrepresenting their digitalization efforts [4]. Long-term Economic Strategy - The article stresses that macroeconomic policies should serve long-term goals rather than short-term fixes, with a focus on sustainable growth driven by consumer spending [23][24]. - It suggests that the lessons from the U.S. economic transformation in the 1990s could provide valuable insights for China's current economic challenges [8][27]. Real Estate Market Concerns - The article expresses concerns about high housing prices, indicating that the affordability of housing should be assessed based on income ratios, which currently indicate a disparity [28]. - It argues that the real estate market's overheating is partly due to local governments' reliance on land sales for revenue, which distorts economic priorities [12][13].

Group 1: Business Performance Overview - In 2024, the company produced 15.16 million tons of clinker, a decrease of 4.40% year-on-year, with external sales of 4.21 million tons, down 9.91% [4] - Cement production reached 16.59 million tons, down 1.65%, with sales of 16.54 million tons, down 1.46% [4] - The company achieved an operating revenue of 5.448 billion yuan, a decline of 14.83%, and a net profit of 592 million yuan, down 15.70% [4] - In Q1 2025, operating revenue was 951 million yuan, up 4.64%, and net profit was 80 million yuan, up 447.61% [4] Group 2: Profitability Metrics - Clinker sales gross margin was 21.97%, up 1.32 percentage points year-on-year; cement sales gross margin was 24.23%, down 1.15 percentage points [4] - The comprehensive gross margin for 2024 was 26.16%, with a net profit margin of 10.86% [4] - The company maintained a leading position in the industry with a return on equity of 7.09% and a basic earnings per share of 0.66 yuan [4] Group 3: Cost Control and Efficiency - In 2024, controllable costs for clinker decreased by 3.14 yuan/ton, and for cement by 2.10 yuan/ton [6] - The average standard coal consumption for clinker was reduced to 98.58 kg/ton, down 3.53 kg/ton year-on-year [6] - The company plans to further reduce controllable costs by 5 yuan/ton for clinker and 3 yuan/ton for cement in 2025 [7] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its core business while expanding into new areas such as environmental protection and logistics [6] - A significant investment in new economic sectors, particularly in semiconductor and renewable energy projects, has been made, with over 1.7 billion yuan invested in 24 projects [9] - The company aims to develop a balanced business model with a focus on three main areas: core building materials, new materials, and equity investment [10] Group 5: Dividend Policy and Shareholder Returns - The company has implemented 11 dividend distribution plans since its listing, totaling 3.819 billion yuan [8] - For 2024, the proposed cash dividend is 6.30 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 600 million yuan, which accounts for 95.73% of the net profit [8] - Future dividend plans include a minimum of 35% of net profit for cash dividends, with a minimum annual payout of 400 million yuan [11] Group 6: Market Outlook and Challenges - The company anticipates a rebound in the market despite current industry challenges, with a focus on optimizing supply and demand dynamics [12] - The cement industry is expected to face a downward trend in demand, prompting the company to adopt a more cautious and flexible strategy [15] - The company is actively exploring opportunities for mergers and acquisitions to enhance its market position [15]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated significant growth in net profit over the last two quarters, driven by strategic initiatives and a focus on cost reduction, despite a decline in overall revenue and profit in the previous fiscal year [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.448 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.83% year-on-year, and a net profit of 627 million yuan, down 15.7% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 951 million yuan, an increase of 4.64% year-on-year, and a net profit of approximately 80 million yuan, up 447.61% year-on-year [1]. - The operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 84.28 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 686.27% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s gross margin was 26.16%, and return on equity was 7.09%, maintaining a leading position in the industry [1][4]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a dividend plan with a high yield of 7.54%, distributing 6.3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 600 million yuan, which represents 95.73% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders [3]. - A long-term dividend plan was proposed, ensuring annual cash dividends of at least 35% of the net profit attributable to shareholders from 2024 to 2026, with a minimum cash dividend of 400 million yuan each year [3]. Industry Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in the cement industry, ranking third in net profit among 12 listed companies and first in gross margin [4]. - It is part of the top 100 global building materials companies and ranks sixth in comprehensive strength among Chinese cement listed companies [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has introduced a dual-driven growth strategy focusing on upgrading its core building materials business and investing in new productive capacities [5]. - The strategy includes a materials industry chain and a new productive capacity investment chain, aiming to balance traditional and emerging industries [5]. - The company is expanding into new business areas such as environmental services, renewable energy, and smart logistics, while gradually exiting the real estate sector [6]. - Investments in strategic emerging industries like semiconductors and new materials are being pursued, with over twenty investments in quality enterprises across the semiconductor value chain [6].

Core Points - Guangdong's GDP in the first quarter leads Jiangsu by approximately 436.91 billion yuan, indicating a narrowing gap between the two provinces [1][4] - Jiangsu's GDP growth rate of 5.9% outpaces Guangdong's 4.1%, showcasing a competitive economic environment [4][8] - The economic competition between Guangdong and Jiangsu reflects the overall vitality of China's economy [3] Economic Performance Comparison - In Q1, Guangdong's GDP reached 33,525.51 billion yuan, while Jiangsu's was 33,088.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.1% and 5.9% respectively [1][4] - Fixed asset investment in Guangdong decreased by 6.2%, primarily due to a 15.2% drop in real estate investment, while Jiangsu's investment grew by 0.4% [5] - Social retail sales in Guangdong grew by 2.5%, compared to Jiangsu's 5.6%, indicating stronger consumer spending in Jiangsu [5][6] Trade and Industry Insights - Guangdong's total import and export value was 2.14 trillion yuan, growing by 4.2%, while Jiangsu's was 1.36 trillion yuan, with a growth of 5% [6] - Jiangsu's industrial output increased by 8.2%, surpassing Guangdong's 3.9% growth, highlighting Jiangsu's manufacturing strength [7] - Jiangsu's first industry value added grew by 5.1%, second industry by 5.8%, and third industry by 5.9%, all outperforming Guangdong's respective growth rates [7] Population and Economic Structure - Guangdong maintains a significant population advantage with 127.8 million residents, compared to Jiangsu's 85.26 million, contributing to its economic scale [12][13] - Jiangsu exhibits a more balanced regional development compared to Guangdong, where economic contributions are heavily concentrated in the Pearl River Delta [14] - The economic development models differ, with Guangdong following an "extreme point-driven" model and Jiangsu adopting a "balanced gradient" model [14]