Economic Overview - The Chinese economy in 2025 shows a clear trend of strong external demand and export growth, while internal demand remains weak, particularly in real estate and fixed asset investment, leading to continued pressure on consumption [1][3] Internal vs External Demand - The balance between internal and external demand is crucial for determining the economic direction, with final consumption contributing 2.8 percentage points to GDP, capital formation contributing 0.9 percentage points, and net exports contributing 1.5 percentage points [2] Employment and Consumer Sentiment - A significant portion of the population feels pessimistic about employment, with 57.4% of respondents in a survey expressing concerns about job prospects, leading to a low consumer sentiment index of 25.8 [4] - Retail sales growth remains weak, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.3% in November, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and a shift in consumer behavior towards saving rather than spending [4] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market shows a divergence between first-tier cities, which have seen relatively stable prices, and lower-tier cities, which have experienced significant declines. However, by late 2025, this divergence is expected to narrow [5] - New home and second-hand home prices in major cities have declined, with notable drops in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, heavily influenced by a 15.9% drop in real estate investment. Private investment has also declined by 5.3% [13] - Government and state-owned enterprise investments are becoming the primary drivers of new investments, with social financing growing by 8.5% year-on-year [13] Export Performance - Exports are experiencing a structural transformation, with machinery and electronics exports accounting for 60.9% of total exports, growing by 8.8%, while labor-intensive product exports have decreased [11] - Trade with the U.S. has declined by 16.9%, while trade with ASEAN countries has increased by 8.5%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [12] Sectoral Disparities - New industries supported by national policies are showing stable income and development expectations, but their ability to create jobs is limited due to automation [6] - Traditional sectors, such as new energy vehicles, are facing challenges from price wars, limiting their ability to provide substantial employment opportunities [7] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is characterized by a decline in large durable goods, while basic and discretionary spending remains stable but under price pressure [10] - The trend of "emotional consumption" is evident, with increased travel and entertainment participation but lower average spending per outing [10] Government Debt and Real Estate Risks - The real estate sector faces significant risks, including asset-liability risks from falling prices and systemic pressures on local finances due to shrinking land revenue [15] - Government debt is increasing, with a year-on-year growth of 18.8%, while public budget revenues are only growing by 0.8%, indicating ongoing fiscal pressures [16]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量深度 2025 年 12 月 12 日 GDP 的顶梁柱 房地产之后下一个是什么？ 以"经济增长保持在合理区间"为目标，汇总"十五五"规划建议的重 点，我们概括理解未来五年支撑经济增长的四个重要方面：1.深化新技术 对现有经济基础的改造；2.自上而下建立源源不断产生新技术的体系；3. 从人的需求出发，化解生产力变化对生产关系产生的影响；4.政府主导的 公共产品供给保障、收入再分配调节和经济稳定增长秩序维护。我们认为 从科技成熟度和产业化周期规律看，未来一段时间内，需要重点关注"现 代化产业体系建设"。 相关研究报告 《需求端或决定通胀延续性》20251211 《白银新高点评》20251211 《11 月通胀点评》20251210 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The "troika" of consumption, investment, and net - exports supporting GDP is under increasing pressure in October, and short - term economic growth may face certain challenges. However, considering the good economic performance in the first three quarters of this year, it is not difficult to achieve the 5% economic growth target for the year 2025. In the next six months, policy rate cuts and the implementation of incremental tools may be the key support measures. Future supportive policies may be more inclined to stimulate consumption. The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Consumption - In October, the growth rate of consumption continued to decline. The total retail sales of consumer goods in October was 4.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the growth rate has declined for five consecutive months. From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.3% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous period [2]. - Service consumption showed continuous strength. In October, catering revenue increased by 3.8% year - on - year, 2.9 percentage points higher than September. Policies such as "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption" and the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" emphasized the expansion of service consumption [2]. - The year - on - year growth rate of most retail sales of categories related to national subsidies continued to slow down. In October, the year - on - year growth rate of retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment above the designated size dropped significantly by 17.9 percentage points to - 14.6% [2]. 3.2 Investment - Fixed - asset investment has been weak for seven consecutive months, with negative year - on - year growth for two consecutive months and accelerating decline. From January to October, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate development investment reached their lowest values since 2022, with year - on - year decreases of - 0.1%, + 2.7%, and - 14.7% respectively [2]. - The decline in real estate development investment has been expanding for eight consecutive months, reaching the second - lowest value since 1995, indicating that the traditional "real estate + infrastructure" driven model is unsustainable [2]. 3.3 Foreign Trade - In the first 10 months of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 37.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In October, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [3]. - In October, the year - on - year exports of major industries (in US dollars) declined significantly compared with the previous month. Exports to the EU decreased significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 0.9% in October, a significant drop of 13.3 percentage points from the previous month [3]. 3.4 Industrial and Service Sectors - From January to October, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year. In October, it increased by 4.9% year - on - year. High - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing maintained high growth rates, with year - on - year increases of 7.2% and 8.0% respectively in October [3]. - In October, the service production index increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage points lower than the previous month [3]. 3.5 Economic Outlook and Bond Market - Economic downward pressure may increase. The "troika" supporting the economy is under pressure, and the conditions for further policy rate cuts may have been initially met [3]. - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in November, predicting that the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond will return to around 1.65% within the year [3].

Economic Performance - The GDP of Hunan, Hubei, and Jiangxi provinces reached 110,796.38 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 7,092.83 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] - Hubei's GDP was 44,875.62 billion yuan, growing by 6.0%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - Hunan and Jiangxi achieved GDPs of 40,240.56 billion yuan and 25,680.2 billion yuan, respectively, both growing by 5.4%, exceeding the national growth rate by 0.2 percentage points [1] Innovation and High-tech Investment - Hubei's high-tech industry investment grew by 8.3%, outpacing overall investment growth by 1.8 percentage points [2] - The added value of Hubei's high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 13.5% and 10.9%, respectively [2] - Hunan's high-tech manufacturing added value grew by 13.8%, 6.0 percentage points higher than the overall industrial growth rate [3] - Jiangxi's high-tech manufacturing added value increased by 12.4%, with the new energy vehicle sector growing by 54.1% [3] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Hunan, Hubei, and Jiangxi reached 44,285.26 billion yuan, with growth rates exceeding the national average [4] - Hubei's retail sales for new energy vehicles and home appliances grew by 19.9% and 21.6%, respectively [4] - In Hunan, retail sales of smart devices increased significantly, with smart phones growing by 81.6% [4] Trade and Exports - The total import and export value of Hubei, Hunan, and Jiangxi reached 13,663.5 billion yuan, with Hubei's growth rate surpassing the national average by 21.3 percentage points [7] - Hubei's exports of electromechanical products accounted for over 50% of its total exports, reaching 2,191.7 billion yuan, a growth of 19.8% [8] - Jiangxi's exports of photovoltaic products increased by 39.3%, while lithium battery exports surged by 90.5% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to shift China's economic policy focus from infrastructure investment to increasing residents' income and boosting consumption, as the current reliance on investment has led to insufficient demand in the economy [2][3][5]. Investment and Economic Policy - The trend of over-reliance on investment has been evident since 1998, with negative impacts becoming more pronounced after 2008, resulting in a long-term low share of consumption in GDP [3][15]. - Current economic policies should prioritize improving residents' income through effective income distribution adjustments, such as mechanisms for wage increases linked to corporate profits [3][19]. - The article critiques the traditional focus on infrastructure and real estate investment, suggesting that funds should be redirected towards social welfare and living standards [5][6][15]. Employment and Income Distribution - There is a pressing need to address employment issues, particularly for the youth, with over 10 million university graduates entering the job market annually [6][10]. - The article highlights the importance of accurately measuring unemployment, especially in rural areas, where many migrant workers face job losses [7][10]. - A proposed income distribution mechanism should ensure that wage increases are legislated and not left to corporate discretion, addressing the slow growth of employee wages [17][19]. New Infrastructure and Digital Economy - The article advocates for a balanced view on new infrastructure investments, recognizing the necessity of certain projects while cautioning against hasty investments in areas like 5G, which may not yet have a clear demand [4][14]. - The concept of the digital economy is critiqued for its vague definitions, with many companies misrepresenting their digitalization efforts [4]. Long-term Economic Strategy - The article stresses that macroeconomic policies should serve long-term goals rather than short-term fixes, with a focus on sustainable growth driven by consumer spending [23][24]. - It suggests that the lessons from the U.S. economic transformation in the 1990s could provide valuable insights for China's current economic challenges [8][27]. Real Estate Market Concerns - The article expresses concerns about high housing prices, indicating that the affordability of housing should be assessed based on income ratios, which currently indicate a disparity [28]. - It argues that the real estate market's overheating is partly due to local governments' reliance on land sales for revenue, which distorts economic priorities [12][13].

Group 1: Business Performance Overview - In 2024, the company produced 15.16 million tons of clinker, a decrease of 4.40% year-on-year, with external sales of 4.21 million tons, down 9.91% [4] - Cement production reached 16.59 million tons, down 1.65%, with sales of 16.54 million tons, down 1.46% [4] - The company achieved an operating revenue of 5.448 billion yuan, a decline of 14.83%, and a net profit of 592 million yuan, down 15.70% [4] - In Q1 2025, operating revenue was 951 million yuan, up 4.64%, and net profit was 80 million yuan, up 447.61% [4] Group 2: Profitability Metrics - Clinker sales gross margin was 21.97%, up 1.32 percentage points year-on-year; cement sales gross margin was 24.23%, down 1.15 percentage points [4] - The comprehensive gross margin for 2024 was 26.16%, with a net profit margin of 10.86% [4] - The company maintained a leading position in the industry with a return on equity of 7.09% and a basic earnings per share of 0.66 yuan [4] Group 3: Cost Control and Efficiency - In 2024, controllable costs for clinker decreased by 3.14 yuan/ton, and for cement by 2.10 yuan/ton [6] - The average standard coal consumption for clinker was reduced to 98.58 kg/ton, down 3.53 kg/ton year-on-year [6] - The company plans to further reduce controllable costs by 5 yuan/ton for clinker and 3 yuan/ton for cement in 2025 [7] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its core business while expanding into new areas such as environmental protection and logistics [6] - A significant investment in new economic sectors, particularly in semiconductor and renewable energy projects, has been made, with over 1.7 billion yuan invested in 24 projects [9] - The company aims to develop a balanced business model with a focus on three main areas: core building materials, new materials, and equity investment [10] Group 5: Dividend Policy and Shareholder Returns - The company has implemented 11 dividend distribution plans since its listing, totaling 3.819 billion yuan [8] - For 2024, the proposed cash dividend is 6.30 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 600 million yuan, which accounts for 95.73% of the net profit [8] - Future dividend plans include a minimum of 35% of net profit for cash dividends, with a minimum annual payout of 400 million yuan [11] Group 6: Market Outlook and Challenges - The company anticipates a rebound in the market despite current industry challenges, with a focus on optimizing supply and demand dynamics [12] - The cement industry is expected to face a downward trend in demand, prompting the company to adopt a more cautious and flexible strategy [15] - The company is actively exploring opportunities for mergers and acquisitions to enhance its market position [15]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated significant growth in net profit over the last two quarters, driven by strategic initiatives and a focus on cost reduction, despite a decline in overall revenue and profit in the previous fiscal year [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.448 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.83% year-on-year, and a net profit of 627 million yuan, down 15.7% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 951 million yuan, an increase of 4.64% year-on-year, and a net profit of approximately 80 million yuan, up 447.61% year-on-year [1]. - The operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 84.28 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 686.27% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s gross margin was 26.16%, and return on equity was 7.09%, maintaining a leading position in the industry [1][4]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a dividend plan with a high yield of 7.54%, distributing 6.3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 600 million yuan, which represents 95.73% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders [3]. - A long-term dividend plan was proposed, ensuring annual cash dividends of at least 35% of the net profit attributable to shareholders from 2024 to 2026, with a minimum cash dividend of 400 million yuan each year [3]. Industry Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in the cement industry, ranking third in net profit among 12 listed companies and first in gross margin [4]. - It is part of the top 100 global building materials companies and ranks sixth in comprehensive strength among Chinese cement listed companies [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has introduced a dual-driven growth strategy focusing on upgrading its core building materials business and investing in new productive capacities [5]. - The strategy includes a materials industry chain and a new productive capacity investment chain, aiming to balance traditional and emerging industries [5]. - The company is expanding into new business areas such as environmental services, renewable energy, and smart logistics, while gradually exiting the real estate sector [6]. - Investments in strategic emerging industries like semiconductors and new materials are being pursued, with over twenty investments in quality enterprises across the semiconductor value chain [6].

Core Points - Guangdong's GDP in the first quarter leads Jiangsu by approximately 436.91 billion yuan, indicating a narrowing gap between the two provinces [1][4] - Jiangsu's GDP growth rate of 5.9% outpaces Guangdong's 4.1%, showcasing a competitive economic environment [4][8] - The economic competition between Guangdong and Jiangsu reflects the overall vitality of China's economy [3] Economic Performance Comparison - In Q1, Guangdong's GDP reached 33,525.51 billion yuan, while Jiangsu's was 33,088.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.1% and 5.9% respectively [1][4] - Fixed asset investment in Guangdong decreased by 6.2%, primarily due to a 15.2% drop in real estate investment, while Jiangsu's investment grew by 0.4% [5] - Social retail sales in Guangdong grew by 2.5%, compared to Jiangsu's 5.6%, indicating stronger consumer spending in Jiangsu [5][6] Trade and Industry Insights - Guangdong's total import and export value was 2.14 trillion yuan, growing by 4.2%, while Jiangsu's was 1.36 trillion yuan, with a growth of 5% [6] - Jiangsu's industrial output increased by 8.2%, surpassing Guangdong's 3.9% growth, highlighting Jiangsu's manufacturing strength [7] - Jiangsu's first industry value added grew by 5.1%, second industry by 5.8%, and third industry by 5.9%, all outperforming Guangdong's respective growth rates [7] Population and Economic Structure - Guangdong maintains a significant population advantage with 127.8 million residents, compared to Jiangsu's 85.26 million, contributing to its economic scale [12][13] - Jiangsu exhibits a more balanced regional development compared to Guangdong, where economic contributions are heavily concentrated in the Pearl River Delta [14] - The economic development models differ, with Guangdong following an "extreme point-driven" model and Jiangsu adopting a "balanced gradient" model [14]