新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 镍品种 市场分析 2025-11-24日沪镍主力合约2601开于114500元/吨，收于115530元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.64%，当日成交量为 148534（+10331）手，持仓量为147554（-13106）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约震荡走高，但上涨仅是对上周周线级别加速下行、周五收出光脚放量长阴线后的技 术性修复，而非趋势反转。宏观方面，美联储发言偏鸽派，降息预期提升，带动金属期货走强。基本面方面，消 费依然疲软，全球镍库存处于5年内高位，将长期压制镍价反弹。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场较为平静，价格维稳运行。菲律宾方面，北部矿山出货尚不稳定，矿 山最新招标价略有走跌，但价格依旧居高。下游镍铁成交价跌至880元/(舱底含税)，市场信心缺失。铁厂利润受挫， 生产积极性不高，对原料镍矿采购多观望心理。印尼方面，11月(二期)内贸基准价走跌0.12-0.2美元/吨，内贸升水 方面，当前主流升水维持+26，升水区间多在+25-26。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格120200元/吨，较上一个交易日上涨1550元/吨。下游企业 ...

Price Trends - The price of Delong 304 cold-rolled sheets in Foshan is reported at 12,550 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous day, while Hongwang 304 cold-rolled sheets in Wuxi are at 12,700 CNY/ton, also unchanged [1] - The base price in Foshan is -15 (+50), and in Wuxi, it is 135 (+50) [1] - Hongwang 201 is priced at 8,850 CNY/ton in Foshan, remaining stable, while Hongwang Zhaotui 430 is at 7,750 CNY/ton, also unchanged [1] Market Overview - On November 19, the national stainless steel plate prices show various rates, with Hongwang 304/2B cold-rolled sheets priced at 11,650 CNY/ton in Jiangsu Province [2] - The futures market for stainless steel closed at 12,335 CNY/ton, with a slight decline of 0.20%, and trading volume reached 88,679 contracts [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of November 17, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in stainless steel warehouse receipts to 69,289 tons, down by 1,076 tons from the previous trading day [3] - In October 2025, South Korea's stainless steel imports were approximately 56,200 tons, down 23.8% month-on-month and 15.6% year-on-year, while exports were about 96,700 tons, down 11.2% month-on-month and 13.9% year-on-year [3] Industry Analysis - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to reduce the nickel ore quota for 2026, which is expected to be below the original plan of 319 million tons, but the market's reaction is limited due to unclear reduction levels [4] - The current weak market for stainless steel has led steel mills to maintain low-price procurement, resulting in a gradual decline in raw material prices, with nickel-iron prices dropping to 900-905 CNY/nickel [4] - The overall supply of stainless steel lacks significant production cut drivers, while terminal demand shows no effective increase, leading to a pessimistic sentiment in the spot market [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and an oversupply situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, a significant reduction in Philippine nickel ore production is expected in the fourth quarter, so the rebound of nickel prices should be monitored [3]. - In the stainless - steel market, as demand rebounds less than expected, inventory accumulates, and cost support weakens, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 6, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 119,280 yuan/ton and closed at 119,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.07% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 110,740 (-12,708) lots, and the open interest was 118,664 (+3,500) lots. The night session showed a weak oscillation, but the day session rebounded due to mine - end disturbances. Indonesia is strengthening control over illegal nickel ore mining, and the typhoon in the Philippines is affecting local nickel ore mining and transportation [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market had a calm trading atmosphere with stable prices. In the Philippines, rainfall and typhoons affected shipping efficiency. Downstream nickel - iron prices were under pressure, and iron plants were reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 27 [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,900 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot transactions were fair, and the spot premiums of each brand were stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,850 yuan/ton, and imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,689 (-240) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 253,104 (-24) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 6, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2511 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,590 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 106,468 (+16,088) lots, and the open interest was 68,420 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the nickel price trend, it showed a similar trend, with a weak oscillation at night and a slight rebound during the day [3][4]. - **Spot**: The spot market sentiment was still pessimistic, with prices continuing to decline and poor transactions. In the afternoon, driven by the futures market, the quotes rebounded, and inquiries increased, but actual transactions were limited. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market, it was 12,850 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 320 - 620 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 917.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Nickel Market**: On October 30, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened high and closed low. The spot market had decent trading volume, and the basis premium widened. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: On October 30, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated downward. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The fundamentals are loose, and cost support is weakening, so the upside potential of stainless - steel prices is expected to be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Trading Volume Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased on October 30 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel futures active contract was 99,113 hands (-10,149), and the open interest was 107,897 hands (-1,789). LME nickel prices also declined, with the LME 3 - month nickel official price down by $105 [2]. - **Supply - side Situation**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened. In October, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased, and nickel - iron inventories decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in October, and export profits expanded [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: Ternary production increased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: SHFE nickel inventories increased, LME nickel inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased on October 30 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai stainless - steel futures active contract was 105,051 hands (+11,210), and the open interest was 89,093 hands (-9,130) [2]. - **Supply - side Situation**: In October, stainless - steel production increased, but the production of the 300 - series decreased [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - **Cost - side Situation**: The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: SHFE stainless - steel inventories remained flat. Last week, the social inventory of the 300 - series was 61,270 tons (-9,000) [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Electrolytic nickel: Hold [4][91] - Stainless steel: Sell on rallies [5][117] 2. Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic nickel, the supply - side shows rising nickel ore prices, decreased port arrivals and inventory, reduced domestic ferronickel production and increased Indonesian production, and rising domestic refined nickel production and export profits. The demand - side has increasing production of ternary materials and precursors, rising stainless - steel mill production, and stable alloy plating demand. With increasing social inventory and decreasing bonded - area inventory, the fundamentals are loose, inventory pressure is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [4][91]. - For stainless steel, the production of stainless - steel mills is rising while the 300 - series production is falling, and the terminal demand is weak. The cost support is weakening with falling nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices. With inventory reduction, the upward driving force is expected to be insufficient [5][117]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated at a low level with a weekly increase of 0.67%. The trading volume decreased to 442,200 lots (- 44,100), and the open interest increased to 121,400 lots (+ 60,900). LME nickel rose 1.32% weekly, and the trading volume decreased to 27,100 lots (- 7,500). The basis premium was 750 yuan/ton [10][12] 1.2 Supply - side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores rose by 1 dollar/wet ton each, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China remained flat. In September, Philippine nickel ore exports decreased, and China's imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 33.9% year - on - year increase. Last week, the arrival volume decreased by 818,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 290,000 wet tons [16][23][25] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 9 yuan/nickel point, and that of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron fell by 200 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel widened, and the premium to scrap stainless steel remained flat. In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% month - on - month and 47.2% year - on - year increase, and the imports in October are expected to decline. In October, domestic production and operation rates decreased, while those in Indonesia increased, and nickel pig iron inventory decreased [30][33][41] Electrolytic Nickel - In October, the production and operation rates of refined nickel increased. The export profit of electrolytic nickel expanded. In September, imports increased and exports decreased [47][51][55] 1.3 Demand - side Stainless Steel - In October, stainless - steel production increased while 300 - series production decreased. In September, exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month and 8.7% year - on - year, and imports increased by 2.7% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year, and the imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [60][64] New Energy - The premium between nickel sulfate and pure nickel shrank, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was very small. In October, the production schedules of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and nickel sulfate increased, with month - on - month increases of 16.2%, 4.3%, and 5.1% respectively, and year - on - year increases of 2.8%, 33.7%, and 24.3% respectively. In September, new - energy vehicle production was 1.617 million units, a 16.3% month - on - month and 23.7% year - on - year increase, and sales were 1.604 million units, a 15.0% month - on - month and 24.6% year - on - year increase [70][73][81] 1.4 Inventory - Last week, SHFE and LME nickel inventories increased. Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory decreased by 300 tons, and the six - region social inventory increased by 1,094 tons [82][87] 1.5 Electrolytic Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate remained unchanged, while the costs from high - grade nickel matte and MHP increased. MHP integrated production has a significant cost advantage over high - grade nickel matte integrated production [90] 2.2 Cost and Profit - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices fell, weakening cost support. The 200 - series turned profitable, and the losses of the 300 - series and 400 - series narrowed [97][102] 2.3 Fundamental - In October, stainless - steel production increased while 300 - series production decreased. In September, exports decreased and imports increased, and the imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [106][109] 2.4 Inventory - The domestic stainless - steel social inventory decreased. The 200 - series inventory remained flat, while the 300 - series and 400 - series inventories decreased [115]

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing stable prices with a slight decline in production and inventory levels, while demand remains weak but shows signs of gradual recovery [3][4]. Raw Materials - Nickel ore prices in the Philippines are stabilizing with FOB prices at $36 for 1.3% nickel ore, while Indonesian domestic benchmark prices are expected to decrease by $0.3 to $0.5 [1][3]. - Nickel pig iron prices are declining, with a procurement price of 940 yuan per nickel (including tax) reported by a steel mill in South China [3]. - Ferrochrome prices are stable, with low adjustment willingness from factories but strong selling intentions from traders [1][3]. Supply - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to be 3.3623 million tons in June, a month-on-month decrease of 2.91% but a year-on-year increase of 2.24% [1]. - The production of the 300 series is expected to increase slightly by 0.36% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 8.35% [1]. Inventory - Social inventory of the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 10,600 tons week-on-week, totaling 530,800 tons as of June 13 [2]. - Stainless steel futures inventory decreased by 3,641 tons week-on-week, reaching 118,022 tons on June 16 [2]. Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is characterized by weak demand and a focus on just-in-time purchasing, with traders reporting mostly small batch orders [3]. - The overall market remains under pressure due to high supply levels, with some steel mills expected to slightly increase production of the 300 series while reducing the 400 series [3]. - The market is entering a seasonal destocking phase, but social inventory has not shown significant reduction [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intraday Shanghai nickel continues to oscillate at the bottom, and the rumor of a mining ban in the Philippines has been disproven. Currently, high - priced ore and weak demand are continuously squeezing the profits of the intermediate links, making it difficult to directly boost the nickel price. The price of ferronickel is still falling, and there is no obvious trend of production reduction even though the economic efficiency of high - grade nickel matte is lower than that of ferronickel. The profit pressure is high, and the purchasing power of upstream and downstream is weak, so short - term contradictions still exist. In the stainless steel sector, the demand is sluggish during the off - season, and the stainless steel price continues to show a narrow - range oscillation trend. The demand for nickel salts in the new energy chain recovers slowly, and the production is still based on sales. Future attention should be paid to spot trading and macro - news [3] - There are some positive factors such as some stainless steel plants announcing production cuts and the support of nickel ore prices at the cost end. Negative factors include stainless steel entering the traditional off - season with slow inventory reduction, deepening contradictions in the ferronickel industry chain with an oversupply situation remaining unchanged, weak demand for precursors in the new energy chain, and the disproven rumor of a mining ban in the Philippines [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Forecast and Management Strategies - The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - For inventory management, when the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory value reduction, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a selling ratio of 60% for the Shanghai nickel main contract and 50% for selling call options. When worried about the rise in raw material prices, buy far - month Shanghai nickel contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs [2] - For procurement management, when the company has future production procurement needs, it can sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [2] 2. Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Data - **Nickel Disk Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of the Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 119,920 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price of the Shanghai nickel continuous - two contract is 120,120 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price of the Shanghai nickel continuous - three contract is 120,260 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price of LME nickel 3M is 15,105 US dollars/ton, down 40 US dollars or 0.05% from the previous day. The trading volume is 86,947 lots, unchanged; the open interest is 82,485 lots, unchanged; the warehouse receipt volume is 21,765 tons, up 724 tons or 3.44%; the basis of the main contract is - 1,010 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 24.7% [5] - **Stainless Steel Disk Data**: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of the stainless steel continuous - one contract is 12,525 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.20% from the previous day; the price of the stainless steel continuous - two contract is 12,550 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.28% from the previous day; the price of the stainless steel continuous - three contract is 12,535 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.28% from the previous day. The trading volume is 130,382 lots, unchanged; the open interest is 180,346 lots, unchanged; the warehouse receipt volume is 118,383 tons, down 602 tons or 0.51%; the basis of the main contract is 585 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 2.63% [6] 3. Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,383 tons, an increase of 8 tons compared to the previous period; the LME nickel inventory is 197,538 tons, a decrease of 96 tons; the stainless steel social inventory is 998.8 tons, an increase of 15.5 tons; the nickel pig iron inventory is 31,462 tons, an increase of 1,907.5 tons [7]

Group 1 - The main contract for stainless steel futures closed at 12,550 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.18% and an increase in open interest by 117,484 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - In May 2025, domestic crude steel production from 43 stainless steel plants was 3.4629 million tons, with June production planned at 3.3623 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.91% but a year-on-year increase of 2.24% [2] - The production of 200 series stainless steel decreased by 0.29% month-on-month and 5.09% year-on-year, while the 300 series increased by 0.36% month-on-month and 8.35% year-on-year [2] Group 2 - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy has increased nickel resource supply costs, while the Philippines plans to implement a nickel ore export ban starting June 2025, leading to increased raw material disruptions [3] - Despite production cuts in the 300 series stainless steel due to cost pressures, overall supply remains at historically high levels, indicating persistent supply pressure [3] - The market is entering a traditional consumption off-season, with increased macroeconomic uncertainty and cautious attitudes from downstream buyers towards high-priced goods [3]