Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing stable prices with a slight decline in production and inventory levels, while demand remains weak but shows signs of gradual recovery [3][4]. Raw Materials - Nickel ore prices in the Philippines are stabilizing with FOB prices at $36 for 1.3% nickel ore, while Indonesian domestic benchmark prices are expected to decrease by $0.3 to $0.5 [1][3]. - Nickel pig iron prices are declining, with a procurement price of 940 yuan per nickel (including tax) reported by a steel mill in South China [3]. - Ferrochrome prices are stable, with low adjustment willingness from factories but strong selling intentions from traders [1][3]. Supply - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to be 3.3623 million tons in June, a month-on-month decrease of 2.91% but a year-on-year increase of 2.24% [1]. - The production of the 300 series is expected to increase slightly by 0.36% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 8.35% [1]. Inventory - Social inventory of the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 10,600 tons week-on-week, totaling 530,800 tons as of June 13 [2]. - Stainless steel futures inventory decreased by 3,641 tons week-on-week, reaching 118,022 tons on June 16 [2]. Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is characterized by weak demand and a focus on just-in-time purchasing, with traders reporting mostly small batch orders [3]. - The overall market remains under pressure due to high supply levels, with some steel mills expected to slightly increase production of the 300 series while reducing the 400 series [3]. - The market is entering a seasonal destocking phase, but social inventory has not shown significant reduction [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intraday Shanghai nickel continues to oscillate at the bottom, and the rumor of a mining ban in the Philippines has been disproven. Currently, high - priced ore and weak demand are continuously squeezing the profits of the intermediate links, making it difficult to directly boost the nickel price. The price of ferronickel is still falling, and there is no obvious trend of production reduction even though the economic efficiency of high - grade nickel matte is lower than that of ferronickel. The profit pressure is high, and the purchasing power of upstream and downstream is weak, so short - term contradictions still exist. In the stainless steel sector, the demand is sluggish during the off - season, and the stainless steel price continues to show a narrow - range oscillation trend. The demand for nickel salts in the new energy chain recovers slowly, and the production is still based on sales. Future attention should be paid to spot trading and macro - news [3] - There are some positive factors such as some stainless steel plants announcing production cuts and the support of nickel ore prices at the cost end. Negative factors include stainless steel entering the traditional off - season with slow inventory reduction, deepening contradictions in the ferronickel industry chain with an oversupply situation remaining unchanged, weak demand for precursors in the new energy chain, and the disproven rumor of a mining ban in the Philippines [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Forecast and Management Strategies - The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - For inventory management, when the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory value reduction, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a selling ratio of 60% for the Shanghai nickel main contract and 50% for selling call options. When worried about the rise in raw material prices, buy far - month Shanghai nickel contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs [2] - For procurement management, when the company has future production procurement needs, it can sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [2] 2. Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Data - **Nickel Disk Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of the Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 119,920 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price of the Shanghai nickel continuous - two contract is 120,120 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price of the Shanghai nickel continuous - three contract is 120,260 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price of LME nickel 3M is 15,105 US dollars/ton, down 40 US dollars or 0.05% from the previous day. The trading volume is 86,947 lots, unchanged; the open interest is 82,485 lots, unchanged; the warehouse receipt volume is 21,765 tons, up 724 tons or 3.44%; the basis of the main contract is - 1,010 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 24.7% [5] - **Stainless Steel Disk Data**: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of the stainless steel continuous - one contract is 12,525 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.20% from the previous day; the price of the stainless steel continuous - two contract is 12,550 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.28% from the previous day; the price of the stainless steel continuous - three contract is 12,535 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.28% from the previous day. The trading volume is 130,382 lots, unchanged; the open interest is 180,346 lots, unchanged; the warehouse receipt volume is 118,383 tons, down 602 tons or 0.51%; the basis of the main contract is 585 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 2.63% [6] 3. Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,383 tons, an increase of 8 tons compared to the previous period; the LME nickel inventory is 197,538 tons, a decrease of 96 tons; the stainless steel social inventory is 998.8 tons, an increase of 15.5 tons; the nickel pig iron inventory is 31,462 tons, an increase of 1,907.5 tons [7]

Group 1 - The main contract for stainless steel futures closed at 12,550 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.18% and an increase in open interest by 117,484 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - In May 2025, domestic crude steel production from 43 stainless steel plants was 3.4629 million tons, with June production planned at 3.3623 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.91% but a year-on-year increase of 2.24% [2] - The production of 200 series stainless steel decreased by 0.29% month-on-month and 5.09% year-on-year, while the 300 series increased by 0.36% month-on-month and 8.35% year-on-year [2] Group 2 - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy has increased nickel resource supply costs, while the Philippines plans to implement a nickel ore export ban starting June 2025, leading to increased raw material disruptions [3] - Despite production cuts in the 300 series stainless steel due to cost pressures, overall supply remains at historically high levels, indicating persistent supply pressure [3] - The market is entering a traditional consumption off-season, with increased macroeconomic uncertainty and cautious attitudes from downstream buyers towards high-priced goods [3]