1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply - demand situation of nickel and stainless steel is weak but in line with expectations. The macro and policy aspects are the main drivers of price trends. The nickel price is expected to remain in a high - level range - bound state, and the stainless steel price will follow the nickel price and also maintain a volatile trend [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 16, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 137,080 yuan/ton and closed at 136,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.54% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 350,916 (-52,020) lots, and the open interest was 208,187 (-3,420) lots [1] - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The Indonesian nickel ore policy has led to expectations of future supply shortages, pushing up nickel ore prices and supporting nickel prices. On the fundamental side, supply is increasing and inventories are rising, while demand from stainless steel plants is stable, and new energy vehicle production and sales are in line with expectations but in the off - season [1] Nickel Ore and Spot - This week, the nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China decreased by 659,900 wet tons to 8,583,400 wet tons, a decrease of 7.14%. The freight of Philippine nickel ore has risen significantly, and the tender prices of Philippine mines are high. In Indonesia, the premium of domestic trade ore remains strong, and the prices of wet - process and pyrometallurgical nickel ores are rising [2] - The spot price of refined nickel in China has weakened with the futures market. After the price adjustment, the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises has increased slightly, but the overall is still mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 6,700 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at - 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,307 (845) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 283,914 (-744) tons [2] Strategy - The future nickel price is expected to maintain a range - bound state. The strategy is mainly for range operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 16, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,170 yuan/ton and closed at 14,120 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 178,406 (+40,046) lots, and the open interest was 113,792 (-4,171) lots [4] - The stainless steel price is still mainly affected by the nickel price. On the supply side, the total planned production of stainless steel crude steel in China in March is expected to reach 3.5364 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. On the consumption side, the market consumption in March is slowly recovering, and it is expected to continue to pick up in April, which will support the price [4] - Affected by the decline of the futures market and the price cut of a major stainless steel manufacturer, the retail price in the market has been slightly reduced, and the trading volume is weak. The price of stainless steel in Wuxi market is 14,400 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market is 14,350 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 425 - 625 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 1,094.5 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - In the short term, stainless steel will follow the nickel price and is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The Indonesian nickel ore policy is the main driver of nickel price trends, and nickel prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock state [1][3]. - The stainless - steel price trend is mainly affected by nickel prices. Although the cost supports the price bottom, the loose supply and increasing inventory will suppress the upward space of stainless - steel prices, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock state [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 136,800 yuan/ton and closed at 138,100 yuan/ton, a change of 0.59% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 491,504 (+182,325) lots, and the open interest was 212,958 (+2,115) lots [1]. - The current nickel is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The Indonesian nickel ore policy has led to expectations of future supply shortages, pushing up nickel ore prices and supporting nickel prices. Fundamentally, the supply is increasing, inventories are piling up, and demand is weak, but the overall supply - demand situation is in line with expectations [1]. Nickel Ore - In the Philippines, the shipping cost shows a differentiation. The mine tender price continues to rise, and the cost - side support is continuously strengthened. In Indonesia, the price of wet - process nickel ore is rising, and the shortage of high - grade resources is intensifying. Although new quotas are being approved, the short - term supply shortage pattern is difficult to change [2]. Spot - The refined nickel market shows a shock pattern after rising and then falling. The spot premium of each brand of refined nickel is slightly adjusted, and the overall trading atmosphere is average. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 53,904 (-437) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,684 (-564) tons [2]. Strategy - The current supply - demand situation is weak but in line with expectations. Policy is the main driver of nickel price trends. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a high - level shock state. The strategy is mainly interval operation, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 12, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,170 yuan/ton and closed at 14,285 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 193,031 (+42,349) lots, and the open interest was 109,003 (-4,171) lots [3][4]. - The stainless - steel price trend is mainly affected by nickel prices. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is increasing, and the consumption after the Spring Festival is poor, with social inventories accumulating, suppressing price rebounds. Although there are expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, short - term demand is difficult to improve significantly [4]. Spot - Affected by the interval shock of the futures market, the spot price remains stable. Although the downstream demand has recovered, the market's acceptance of high - price goods is limited, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs, while traders actively ship goods to reduce inventory [4]. Strategy - The current price trend is mainly affected by nickel prices. The high cost supports the price bottom, but the loose supply and increasing inventory will suppress the upward space of stainless - steel prices. It is expected that stainless - steel prices will maintain a high - level shock state. The strategy is neutral, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For the nickel market, the current supply - demand situation is weak but in line with expectations. Policy factors, especially Indonesia's nickel ore contraction policy, are the main drivers of nickel price trends. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory state [1][3]. - For the stainless - steel market, the price trend is mainly influenced by nickel prices. High costs support the price bottom, but ample supply and increasing inventory will limit the upside space. Stainless - steel prices are also expected to maintain a high - level oscillatory state [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 4, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened at 134,800 yuan/ton and closed at 137,410 yuan/ton, a change of 0.12% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 520,078 (-209,955) lots, and the open interest was 218,571 (-193) lots [1]. - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. Indonesia's nickel ore policy is fermenting, with the 2026 RKAB quota set at 250 million tons, a 34% drop from 2025's 379 million tons. This has led to expectations of future nickel ore supply shortages, driving up nickel ore prices and supporting nickel prices. Fundamentally, supply is increasing, inventories are piling up, demand from the stainless - steel sector is weak after the Spring Festival, and the new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season [1]. Nickel Ore and Spot - The nickel ore market continues to be strong. In the Philippines, mine quotes remain firm. In Indonesia, the 2026 production target of 209 million tons is for royalty calculation and does not affect the current RKAB. The domestic trade nickel ore market has strong premium quotes, and the supply shortage is difficult to ease in the short term. In the spot market for refined nickel, the overall performance is stable, and the trading atmosphere has slightly improved [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly use range - bound operations for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 4, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract opened at 14,170 yuan/ton and closed at 14,220 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,813 (-18,937) lots, and the open interest was 61,114 (-4,171) lots [3]. - Stainless - steel prices are mainly influenced by nickel prices. On the supply side, the crude steel production schedule in March has increased month - on - month, and the开工 rate of stainless - steel plants remains high. On the demand side, consumption is weak after the Spring Festival, and social inventories are accumulating, suppressing price rebounds. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak - season expectations exist, but short - term demand is unlikely to improve significantly [4]. - In the spot market, due to increased production schedules and accumulated inventories, spot quotes are loose, and the market is in a recovery stage with general activity [4]. Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On January 14, the Director - General of the Mineral and Coal Directorate of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia stated that the annual nickel ore production target is expected to be about 250 - 260 million tons, and the mine supply is expected to remain tight. Market optimism has risen, and stainless steel has shown a trend of increasing volume and price. In the short term, against the backdrop of tight supply, continuous decline in inventory, and significant cost support, the market is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, and prices may show a high - level oscillation pattern, with the reference range for the main contract being 13,900 - 14,650 yuan/ton [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Spot and Futures Market**: On January 17, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,015 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 6.28%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.73%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.99% [12]. - **Supply**: In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48%. In December, the expected output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled products was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [12]. - **Demand**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [12]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 927,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.22%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 46,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,483 tons. Last week, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 133,300 tons, 602,400 tons, and 191,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.00% week - on - week; last week, the floating quantity of stainless steel at sea was 32,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.61%, and the unloading quantity was 103,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.46% [12]. - **Cost**: Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,020 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/nickel, and the current profit of iron plants in Fujian was 49 yuan/nickel [12]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - On January 17, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,015 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.28%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.73%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.99% [20] - The market quotation of Foshan Delong refers to a premium of about - 325 yuan (- 24) over the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about - 125 yuan (+ 6) over the main contract. The position on the disk was 261,387 lots, a week - on - week increase of 15.20% [23] - In terms of the monthly spread, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at 5 (+ 90), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 10 (+ 130) [26] 3. Supply Side - In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48% [31] - According to the sample statistics of MYSTEEL, in December, the expected output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled products was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [34] - It is estimated by SMM that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in December was 420,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; according to MYSTEEL data, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 87,300 tons in November, a month - on - month decrease of 15.56% [37] - In November, the net export volume of stainless steel was 293,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.14%; from January to November, the cumulative net export volume was 3.1719 million tons, a 12.64% increase compared with the same period last year [40] 4. Demand Side - From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93% [45] - In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [48] - In November, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 132,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 16.81% and a year - on - year increase of 3.12%; in November, the automobile sales volume was 3.429 million units, a month - on - month increase of 3.22% and a year - on - year increase of 3.40% [51] 5. Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 883,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.13%. It is expected that the inventory will be slightly reduced this week, with an estimated value of 860,000 tons; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 46,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,483 tons [56] - Last week, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 133,300 tons, 602,400 tons, and 191,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.00% week - on - week; last week, the floating quantity of stainless steel at sea was 32,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.61%, and the unloading quantity was 103,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.46% [59] 6. Cost Side - According to WIND data, in November, the nickel ore import volume was 3.3395 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.66%; currently, the quotation of nickel ore with a Ni content of 1.5% is 54.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 13.3203 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.23% [64] - Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,020 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/nickel, and the current profit of iron plants in Fujian was 49 yuan/nickel [67] - Last week, the quotation of chrome ore was 55 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 yuan/dry ton; the quotation of high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,400 yuan/50 - base ton, a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/50 - base ton. In terms of output, the output of high - carbon ferrochrome in December was 887,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% [70] - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is 797 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches 5.88% [73]

Group 1 - On December 8, Qingshan Group announced a price increase of 100 yuan/ton for stainless steel, which boosted market confidence [1] - The spot price for 304 cold-rolled stainless steel generally rose by 50 yuan/ton [1] - As of December 9, the main contract for stainless steel futures closed at 12,500.00 yuan/ton, with a daily trading volume of 69,080 lots [2] Group 2 - On December 8, the total stainless steel inventory in Guangdong was 12,432 tons, unchanged from the previous day, while Jiangsu's inventory decreased by 63 tons to 49,124 tons, totaling 61,556 tons across regions [3][4] - A recent report from New Lake Futures indicated that while stainless steel prices have rebounded following low nickel prices, downstream demand remains weak, and inventory levels are high, suggesting limited upside for price increases [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel price is technically rebounding but remains under short - term pressure. Due to high inventory and oversupply, the nickel price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation. The stainless steel market is also facing weak demand and high inventory, and is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation as well [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 114,500 yuan/ton and closed at 115,530 yuan/ton, a 0.64% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 148,534 (+10,331) lots, and the open interest was 147,554 (-13,106) lots. The rise was a technical repair rather than a trend reversal. The dovish Fed statement increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, driving up metal futures. However, weak consumption and high global nickel inventory will suppress the nickel price in the long term [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, northern mines' shipments were unstable, and the latest tender prices declined slightly but remained high. The downstream nickel - iron transaction price dropped to 880 yuan/(ex - ship, tax included), and iron plants' production enthusiasm was low. In Indonesia, the November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price decreased by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/ton, and the mainstream premium was +26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 120,200 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan/ton from the previous day. Downstream enterprises purchased as needed, and traders were cautious. The premiums of refined nickel brands were stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,785 (-294) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,482 (-468) tons [2]. Strategy - Due to high inventory and unchanged oversupply, the nickel price is expected to maintain low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range operation for the single - side, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,280 yuan/ton and closed at 12,335 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 147,594 (-31,040) lots, and the open interest was 162,927 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a narrow - range weakening trend, with the price fluctuating between 12,265 - 12,385 yuan/ton. The short - side was dominant, and the market was bearish [3]. - **Spot**: In the off - season, stainless steel demand was weak, the market was pessimistic, prices were lowered, but transactions remained light. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 12,675 (+0) yuan/ton and 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton respectively, and the 304/2B premium was 335 - 585 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 889.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - Due to low demand, high inventory, and a downward - moving cost center, the stainless steel price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Price Trends - The price of Delong 304 cold-rolled sheets in Foshan is reported at 12,550 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous day, while Hongwang 304 cold-rolled sheets in Wuxi are at 12,700 CNY/ton, also unchanged [1] - The base price in Foshan is -15 (+50), and in Wuxi, it is 135 (+50) [1] - Hongwang 201 is priced at 8,850 CNY/ton in Foshan, remaining stable, while Hongwang Zhaotui 430 is at 7,750 CNY/ton, also unchanged [1] Market Overview - On November 19, the national stainless steel plate prices show various rates, with Hongwang 304/2B cold-rolled sheets priced at 11,650 CNY/ton in Jiangsu Province [2] - The futures market for stainless steel closed at 12,335 CNY/ton, with a slight decline of 0.20%, and trading volume reached 88,679 contracts [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of November 17, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in stainless steel warehouse receipts to 69,289 tons, down by 1,076 tons from the previous trading day [3] - In October 2025, South Korea's stainless steel imports were approximately 56,200 tons, down 23.8% month-on-month and 15.6% year-on-year, while exports were about 96,700 tons, down 11.2% month-on-month and 13.9% year-on-year [3] Industry Analysis - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to reduce the nickel ore quota for 2026, which is expected to be below the original plan of 319 million tons, but the market's reaction is limited due to unclear reduction levels [4] - The current weak market for stainless steel has led steel mills to maintain low-price procurement, resulting in a gradual decline in raw material prices, with nickel-iron prices dropping to 900-905 CNY/nickel [4] - The overall supply of stainless steel lacks significant production cut drivers, while terminal demand shows no effective increase, leading to a pessimistic sentiment in the spot market [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and an oversupply situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, a significant reduction in Philippine nickel ore production is expected in the fourth quarter, so the rebound of nickel prices should be monitored [3]. - In the stainless - steel market, as demand rebounds less than expected, inventory accumulates, and cost support weakens, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 6, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 119,280 yuan/ton and closed at 119,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.07% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 110,740 (-12,708) lots, and the open interest was 118,664 (+3,500) lots. The night session showed a weak oscillation, but the day session rebounded due to mine - end disturbances. Indonesia is strengthening control over illegal nickel ore mining, and the typhoon in the Philippines is affecting local nickel ore mining and transportation [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market had a calm trading atmosphere with stable prices. In the Philippines, rainfall and typhoons affected shipping efficiency. Downstream nickel - iron prices were under pressure, and iron plants were reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 27 [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,900 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot transactions were fair, and the spot premiums of each brand were stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,850 yuan/ton, and imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,689 (-240) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 253,104 (-24) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 6, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2511 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,590 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 106,468 (+16,088) lots, and the open interest was 68,420 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the nickel price trend, it showed a similar trend, with a weak oscillation at night and a slight rebound during the day [3][4]. - **Spot**: The spot market sentiment was still pessimistic, with prices continuing to decline and poor transactions. In the afternoon, driven by the futures market, the quotes rebounded, and inquiries increased, but actual transactions were limited. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market, it was 12,850 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 320 - 620 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 917.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Nickel Market**: On October 30, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened high and closed low. The spot market had decent trading volume, and the basis premium widened. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: On October 30, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated downward. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The fundamentals are loose, and cost support is weakening, so the upside potential of stainless - steel prices is expected to be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Trading Volume Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased on October 30 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel futures active contract was 99,113 hands (-10,149), and the open interest was 107,897 hands (-1,789). LME nickel prices also declined, with the LME 3 - month nickel official price down by $105 [2]. - **Supply - side Situation**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened. In October, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased, and nickel - iron inventories decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in October, and export profits expanded [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: Ternary production increased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: SHFE nickel inventories increased, LME nickel inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased on October 30 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai stainless - steel futures active contract was 105,051 hands (+11,210), and the open interest was 89,093 hands (-9,130) [2]. - **Supply - side Situation**: In October, stainless - steel production increased, but the production of the 300 - series decreased [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - **Cost - side Situation**: The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: SHFE stainless - steel inventories remained flat. Last week, the social inventory of the 300 - series was 61,270 tons (-9,000) [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Electrolytic nickel: Hold [4][91] - Stainless steel: Sell on rallies [5][117] 2. Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic nickel, the supply - side shows rising nickel ore prices, decreased port arrivals and inventory, reduced domestic ferronickel production and increased Indonesian production, and rising domestic refined nickel production and export profits. The demand - side has increasing production of ternary materials and precursors, rising stainless - steel mill production, and stable alloy plating demand. With increasing social inventory and decreasing bonded - area inventory, the fundamentals are loose, inventory pressure is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [4][91]. - For stainless steel, the production of stainless - steel mills is rising while the 300 - series production is falling, and the terminal demand is weak. The cost support is weakening with falling nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices. With inventory reduction, the upward driving force is expected to be insufficient [5][117]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated at a low level with a weekly increase of 0.67%. The trading volume decreased to 442,200 lots (- 44,100), and the open interest increased to 121,400 lots (+ 60,900). LME nickel rose 1.32% weekly, and the trading volume decreased to 27,100 lots (- 7,500). The basis premium was 750 yuan/ton [10][12] 1.2 Supply - side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores rose by 1 dollar/wet ton each, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China remained flat. In September, Philippine nickel ore exports decreased, and China's imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 33.9% year - on - year increase. Last week, the arrival volume decreased by 818,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 290,000 wet tons [16][23][25] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 9 yuan/nickel point, and that of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron fell by 200 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel widened, and the premium to scrap stainless steel remained flat. In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% month - on - month and 47.2% year - on - year increase, and the imports in October are expected to decline. In October, domestic production and operation rates decreased, while those in Indonesia increased, and nickel pig iron inventory decreased [30][33][41] Electrolytic Nickel - In October, the production and operation rates of refined nickel increased. The export profit of electrolytic nickel expanded. In September, imports increased and exports decreased [47][51][55] 1.3 Demand - side Stainless Steel - In October, stainless - steel production increased while 300 - series production decreased. In September, exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month and 8.7% year - on - year, and imports increased by 2.7% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year, and the imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [60][64] New Energy - The premium between nickel sulfate and pure nickel shrank, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was very small. In October, the production schedules of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and nickel sulfate increased, with month - on - month increases of 16.2%, 4.3%, and 5.1% respectively, and year - on - year increases of 2.8%, 33.7%, and 24.3% respectively. In September, new - energy vehicle production was 1.617 million units, a 16.3% month - on - month and 23.7% year - on - year increase, and sales were 1.604 million units, a 15.0% month - on - month and 24.6% year - on - year increase [70][73][81] 1.4 Inventory - Last week, SHFE and LME nickel inventories increased. Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory decreased by 300 tons, and the six - region social inventory increased by 1,094 tons [82][87] 1.5 Electrolytic Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate remained unchanged, while the costs from high - grade nickel matte and MHP increased. MHP integrated production has a significant cost advantage over high - grade nickel matte integrated production [90] 2.2 Cost and Profit - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices fell, weakening cost support. The 200 - series turned profitable, and the losses of the 300 - series and 400 - series narrowed [97][102] 2.3 Fundamental - In October, stainless - steel production increased while 300 - series production decreased. In September, exports decreased and imports increased, and the imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [106][109] 2.4 Inventory - The domestic stainless - steel social inventory decreased. The 200 - series inventory remained flat, while the 300 - series and 400 - series inventories decreased [115]