Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current supply - demand situation of nickel is weak but in line with expectations. Macro and policy factors are the main drivers of nickel price trends. The nickel ore contraction policy in Indonesia will support nickel prices, while geopolitical conflicts push up the US dollar index and suppress nickel prices. It is expected that nickel prices will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the future [4]. - The supply growth expectation of stainless steel is stronger than the demand side, but cost support still exists. Macro and policy impacts are the main drivers of stainless steel trends. In the short term, stainless steel will follow the nickel price trend and is expected to maintain an oscillating state [6]. Group 3: Summary of Nickel Market Analysis - On March 19, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 134,940 yuan/ton and closed at 131,550 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.94% compared with the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 398,352 (+137,766) lots, and the open interest was 186,757 (-11,470) lots [1]. Trend Analysis - Nickel is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The Indonesian nickel ore policy has led to an expected future shortage of nickel ore supply, pushing up nickel ore prices and supporting nickel prices. Fundamentally, supply is increasing and inventories are piling up, while demand from stainless steel plants is stable and new - energy vehicle production and sales are in line with expectations but in a consumption off - season [1]. Macro and Nickel Ore Factors - The Fed's hawkish signal in the March interest - rate meeting strengthened the US dollar index, putting pressure on commodities including nickel. The intensification of the US - Iran conflict also suppressed commodity trends. In the nickel ore market, Philippine mine tender prices are rising, and in Indonesia, the RKAB quota approval is slow with strong premiums for domestic trade ore [2]. Spot Market - The main contract of Shanghai nickel continued to decline, and the spot premium was slightly adjusted up in the morning. Some downstream enterprises increased their purchasing willingness when the price fell below 130,000 yuan, but many still held a wait - and - see attitude. The supply pressure of refined nickel remained, and the inventory of LME nickel decreased [3]. Strategy - For nickel, the strategy is mainly range - bound operation, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Group 4: Summary of Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On March 19, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,020 yuan/ton and closed at 13,855 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 154,529 (+58,084) lots, and the open interest was 123,112 (-4,171) lots [5]. Trend Analysis - The price trend of stainless steel is mainly affected by nickel prices. In terms of fundamentals, the supply of stainless steel crude steel is expected to increase in March, and the consumption is slowly recovering, with expected further improvement in April, which provides bottom support for prices [5]. Spot Market - The confidence in the stainless steel spot market has weakened due to the decline in the futures market and the fall in high - nickel pig iron prices. The 304 stainless steel price was adjusted down, while the 201 stainless steel price rose due to the steel mill's price - support news [6]. Strategy - For stainless steel, the strategy is neutral, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply - demand situation of nickel and stainless steel is weak but in line with expectations. Macro and policy factors are the main drivers of price trends. Nickel is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound trend, while stainless steel will follow nickel's trend and also maintain a range - bound state [1][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 17, 2026, the opening price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 136,930 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 135,940 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.34% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 342,807 (- 8,109) lots, and the open interest was 207,749 (- 438) lots [1] - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The Indonesian nickel ore policy has led to an expected reduction in supply, pushing up nickel ore prices and supporting nickel prices. Fundamentally, supply is increasing, inventories are rising, and demand is stable but in a consumption off - season [1] Macro Aspect - The weakening of the US dollar provided some support to the commodity market, but the non - escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation had limited impact on nickel prices. Macroeconomic data was below expectations, weakening market confidence in global demand recovery [2] Nickel Ore Aspect - Geopolitical conflicts have pushed up international oil prices, causing a significant increase in the ocean freight of Philippine nickel ore. The price acceptance of iron mills for high - price nickel ore is limited [3] Spot Aspect - The nickel price fluctuated weakly during the day, and the spot premium of refined nickel was generally stable. Downstream enterprises made rigid - demand purchases, and the market trading atmosphere was mild [3] Strategy - The future nickel price is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operations [4] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 17, 2026, the opening price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,120 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,095 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 114,456 (- 63,950) lots, and the open interest was 115,319 (- 4,171) lots [5] - The stainless steel price is still mainly affected by the nickel price. In terms of fundamentals, supply pressure is increasing, and consumption is slowly recovering. The expected increase in consumption in April will support prices [5] - Affected by increased production and inventory, the spot price of stainless steel has loosened, and the market activity is average [5] Strategy - In the short term, stainless steel will follow the nickel price and is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The recommended strategy is neutral [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply - demand situation of nickel and stainless steel is weak but in line with expectations. The macro and policy aspects are the main drivers of price trends. The nickel price is expected to remain in a high - level range - bound state, and the stainless steel price will follow the nickel price and also maintain a volatile trend [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 16, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 137,080 yuan/ton and closed at 136,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.54% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 350,916 (-52,020) lots, and the open interest was 208,187 (-3,420) lots [1] - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The Indonesian nickel ore policy has led to expectations of future supply shortages, pushing up nickel ore prices and supporting nickel prices. On the fundamental side, supply is increasing and inventories are rising, while demand from stainless steel plants is stable, and new energy vehicle production and sales are in line with expectations but in the off - season [1] Nickel Ore and Spot - This week, the nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China decreased by 659,900 wet tons to 8,583,400 wet tons, a decrease of 7.14%. The freight of Philippine nickel ore has risen significantly, and the tender prices of Philippine mines are high. In Indonesia, the premium of domestic trade ore remains strong, and the prices of wet - process and pyrometallurgical nickel ores are rising [2] - The spot price of refined nickel in China has weakened with the futures market. After the price adjustment, the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises has increased slightly, but the overall is still mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 6,700 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at - 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,307 (845) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 283,914 (-744) tons [2] Strategy - The future nickel price is expected to maintain a range - bound state. The strategy is mainly for range operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 16, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,170 yuan/ton and closed at 14,120 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 178,406 (+40,046) lots, and the open interest was 113,792 (-4,171) lots [4] - The stainless steel price is still mainly affected by the nickel price. On the supply side, the total planned production of stainless steel crude steel in China in March is expected to reach 3.5364 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. On the consumption side, the market consumption in March is slowly recovering, and it is expected to continue to pick up in April, which will support the price [4] - Affected by the decline of the futures market and the price cut of a major stainless steel manufacturer, the retail price in the market has been slightly reduced, and the trading volume is weak. The price of stainless steel in Wuxi market is 14,400 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market is 14,350 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 425 - 625 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 1,094.5 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - In the short term, stainless steel will follow the nickel price and is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The Indonesian nickel ore policy is the main driver of nickel price trends, and nickel prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock state [1][3]. - The stainless - steel price trend is mainly affected by nickel prices. Although the cost supports the price bottom, the loose supply and increasing inventory will suppress the upward space of stainless - steel prices, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock state [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 136,800 yuan/ton and closed at 138,100 yuan/ton, a change of 0.59% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 491,504 (+182,325) lots, and the open interest was 212,958 (+2,115) lots [1]. - The current nickel is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The Indonesian nickel ore policy has led to expectations of future supply shortages, pushing up nickel ore prices and supporting nickel prices. Fundamentally, the supply is increasing, inventories are piling up, and demand is weak, but the overall supply - demand situation is in line with expectations [1]. Nickel Ore - In the Philippines, the shipping cost shows a differentiation. The mine tender price continues to rise, and the cost - side support is continuously strengthened. In Indonesia, the price of wet - process nickel ore is rising, and the shortage of high - grade resources is intensifying. Although new quotas are being approved, the short - term supply shortage pattern is difficult to change [2]. Spot - The refined nickel market shows a shock pattern after rising and then falling. The spot premium of each brand of refined nickel is slightly adjusted, and the overall trading atmosphere is average. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 53,904 (-437) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,684 (-564) tons [2]. Strategy - The current supply - demand situation is weak but in line with expectations. Policy is the main driver of nickel price trends. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a high - level shock state. The strategy is mainly interval operation, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 12, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,170 yuan/ton and closed at 14,285 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 193,031 (+42,349) lots, and the open interest was 109,003 (-4,171) lots [3][4]. - The stainless - steel price trend is mainly affected by nickel prices. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is increasing, and the consumption after the Spring Festival is poor, with social inventories accumulating, suppressing price rebounds. Although there are expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, short - term demand is difficult to improve significantly [4]. Spot - Affected by the interval shock of the futures market, the spot price remains stable. Although the downstream demand has recovered, the market's acceptance of high - price goods is limited, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs, while traders actively ship goods to reduce inventory [4]. Strategy - The current price trend is mainly affected by nickel prices. The high cost supports the price bottom, but the loose supply and increasing inventory will suppress the upward space of stainless - steel prices. It is expected that stainless - steel prices will maintain a high - level shock state. The strategy is neutral, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For the nickel market, the current supply - demand situation is weak but in line with expectations. Policy factors, especially Indonesia's nickel ore contraction policy, are the main drivers of nickel price trends. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory state [1][3]. - For the stainless - steel market, the price trend is mainly influenced by nickel prices. High costs support the price bottom, but ample supply and increasing inventory will limit the upside space. Stainless - steel prices are also expected to maintain a high - level oscillatory state [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 4, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened at 134,800 yuan/ton and closed at 137,410 yuan/ton, a change of 0.12% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 520,078 (-209,955) lots, and the open interest was 218,571 (-193) lots [1]. - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. Indonesia's nickel ore policy is fermenting, with the 2026 RKAB quota set at 250 million tons, a 34% drop from 2025's 379 million tons. This has led to expectations of future nickel ore supply shortages, driving up nickel ore prices and supporting nickel prices. Fundamentally, supply is increasing, inventories are piling up, demand from the stainless - steel sector is weak after the Spring Festival, and the new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season [1]. Nickel Ore and Spot - The nickel ore market continues to be strong. In the Philippines, mine quotes remain firm. In Indonesia, the 2026 production target of 209 million tons is for royalty calculation and does not affect the current RKAB. The domestic trade nickel ore market has strong premium quotes, and the supply shortage is difficult to ease in the short term. In the spot market for refined nickel, the overall performance is stable, and the trading atmosphere has slightly improved [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly use range - bound operations for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 4, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract opened at 14,170 yuan/ton and closed at 14,220 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,813 (-18,937) lots, and the open interest was 61,114 (-4,171) lots [3]. - Stainless - steel prices are mainly influenced by nickel prices. On the supply side, the crude steel production schedule in March has increased month - on - month, and the开工 rate of stainless - steel plants remains high. On the demand side, consumption is weak after the Spring Festival, and social inventories are accumulating, suppressing price rebounds. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak - season expectations exist, but short - term demand is unlikely to improve significantly [4]. - In the spot market, due to increased production schedules and accumulated inventories, spot quotes are loose, and the market is in a recovery stage with general activity [4]. Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Indonesia's nickel mining policy significantly impacts global nickel prices, with recent announcements leading to a notable increase in nickel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) [1][3][23] - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced a nickel mining production target of 260 to 270 million tons for 2026, with major mines like Weda Bay Nickel receiving a reduced approval rate of only 30% [1][3][10] - The tightening of supply due to policy changes has led to a significant price increase, with the SHFE nickel futures contract reaching a high of 140,230 and closing at 139,360, marking a daily increase of 4.51% [1][3][23] Group 2 - The article discusses the synergistic support for nickel prices from both endogenous and exogenous factors, suggesting that the current market conditions do not warrant a bearish outlook on nickel prices [2][11] - Exogenous factors include the strengthening of nickel's financial attributes and its strategic metal positioning, while endogenous factors highlight structural shortages in the spot market and rising industry costs that limit price declines [2][11] - The overall expectation is that the main price range for SHFE nickel will stabilize between 135,000 and 140,000, with potential catalysts from future policy adjustments [2][23] Group 3 - Historical analysis indicates that Indonesia's nickel mining policies have been inconsistent, often leading to significant fluctuations in market expectations and prices [5][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming policy revisions and quota distributions, particularly in February and March, as well as the mid-year review of the RKAB [24] - The supply-demand balance for nickel is projected to face challenges, with potential shortfalls if the government implements strict policies too quickly [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have seen a significant increase of over 30% from mid-December to early January, driven by news of Indonesia's potential reduction of nickel ore quotas for 2026, although prices are currently under pressure due to overall high levels in the non-ferrous metals market [3][15]. Nickel Ore Policy Developments - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) plans to strategically adjust the nickel ore production quota (RKAB) to between 250 million and 260 million tons, with existing quotas allowed to continue until the end of Q1 to ensure production continuity during the review period [4][16]. - The price of nickel ore has increased, with a recent transaction of 1.3% grade nickel ore from the Philippines at FOB $38, reflecting a significant week-on-week increase [4][16]. - Domestic nickel ore imports for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 40.169 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, with nearly 91% sourced from the Philippines [4][16]. Nickel Iron Price Trends - In December 2025, nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia was 180,300 tons, a slight increase of 0.6% month-on-month and a 4.8% year-on-year growth [6][18]. - Domestic high-nickel pig iron prices have risen, with factory prices reaching 1,010-1,020 RMB per nickel, while Indonesian nickel pig iron FOB prices increased to $128 per nickel [6][18]. - Nickel pig iron imports for the first 11 months of 2025 totaled 10.056 million tons, a 26.7% increase year-on-year, with approximately 97% of imports from Indonesia [6][18]. Refined Nickel Inventory Pressure - Domestic refined nickel production in December 2025 was 29,058 tons, a slight increase from November but a 16.4% year-on-year decline, with total production for the year at 410,800 tons, a 22.8% increase [8][20]. - As of January 16, total nickel inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 48,180 tons, with registered warehouse receipts at 41,985 tons, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [8][20]. - LME nickel inventory has also been on the rise, with the latest total at 285,700 tons, suggesting a globally loose supply of refined nickel [8][20]. Demand Stability and Weakness - Nickel demand is primarily driven by stainless steel, ternary batteries, and nickel alloys, with stainless steel being the most significant sector [10][22]. - In December 2025, domestic production of 300 series stainless steel was 1.7472 million tons, a slight decrease from November but a 5.6% year-on-year increase [10][22]. - The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate has rapidly increased to 33,600 RMB per ton, indicating some purchasing demand from nickel salt manufacturers despite overall weak speculative demand [10][22]. Summary - The overall environment shows increased volatility in silver and copper prices, which may influence nickel prices [12][24]. - Indonesia's announcement regarding potential reductions in nickel ore quotas is still developing, which could impact market sentiment [12][24]. - Despite the recovery in sentiment across the nickel supply chain, there remains significant pressure from excess inventory, particularly in refined nickel [12][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for nickel is "neutral", while the core view is "bullish". Specific aspects have different ratings: nickel ore price is "neutral", Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore is "bullish", freight is "neutral", refined nickel production is "bearish", refined nickel inventory (SMM) is "bearish", domestic NPI price is "bullish", nickel iron production is "bullish", nickel sulfate production is "bullish", stainless steel production schedule is "bullish", stainless steel social inventory is "bullish", and stainless steel cost is "bullish" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The current market focus has shifted to the RKAB quota approval in 2026, and the Indonesian Mining Association expects the relevant process to be completed within the next three months. Given the flexibility in policy implementation, there is a need to be vigilant about the deviation between the actual implementation of the quota and market expectations. Currently, nickel prices are supported by supply - side policy constraints and are expected to temporarily break away from the current pressure. However, as speculative funds drive the price to an overly optimistic range, nickel prices may be verified by the fundamentals [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News Update - Jilin Jien Nickel Industry Co., Ltd.'s 60,000 - ton nickel sulfate project was officially put into operation on December 31, 2025 [7] - Due to the non - approval of the 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota, PT Vale Indonesia Tbk has suspended its nickel ore mining activities [7] - On December 26, 2025, Shengtun Mining Group Co., Ltd. announced the termination of its investment in the 40,000 - ton high - grade nickel matte project in Indonesia [7] - The Indonesian Forest Law Enforcement Task Force (PKH) will fine 71 palm oil plantations and mining companies that violated forest area use as of December 8, 2025, including PT Weda Bay Nickel [7] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and the revised version will be announced in January or February [7] - The Indonesian government plans to cut the nickel ore mining quota in 2026, with the target set at about 250 million tons [7] 3.2 Market Performance - Last week, the main contract of SHFE nickel 2602 opened at 126,700 yuan/ton, closed at 132,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 135,570 yuan/ton and a low of 124,180 yuan/ton, up 4.81% for the week [9] - The main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,955 yuan/ton, closed at 13,125 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 13,200 yuan/ton and a low of 12,840 yuan/ton, up 1.31% for the week [78] 3.3 Price Changes - As of January 5, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 30 yuan/nickel point to 930 yuan/nickel point, a week - on - week increase of 3.33% [3][30] - As of January 5, the price of electrolytic nickel spot increased by 8,450 yuan/ton to 138,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.52% [16] - As of January 5, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 8,450 yuan/ton to 141,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.34%, and the premium increased by 300 to 7,400 yuan/ton [17] - As of January 5, the price of imported nickel increased by 8,150 yuan/ton to 134,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.44%, and the premium remained flat at 400 yuan/ton [17] - As of January 5, the LME nickel price increased by 1,530 US dollars/ton to 17,290 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.71% [21] - As of January 6, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore remained flat at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [36] - As of January 2, the ex - works prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia remained flat at 22.5 and 51.9 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [36] - As of January 6, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased by 233 yuan/ton to 13,086 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.81% [88] 3.4 Supply and Demand - According to the monthly balance sheet of primary nickel in China, from May 2025 to May 2026, the total supply and demand of nickel are in a state of balance, with a supply surplus [4] - As of December 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.56 million tons to 3.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.37% [3][48] - As of December 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly output decreased by 1,640 tons to 29,200 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.47% [3][62] - As of December 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel output decreased by 226,000 tons to 3.2671 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.09% [3][81] - As of January 2, stainless steel social inventory decreased by 27,800 tons to 977,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.76% [3][84] 3.5 Inventory - As of January 6, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 878 tons to 39,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28%, and LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 360 tons to 255,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.14% [52] - Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including SHFE) increased by 556 tons to 58,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.95% [3][52] - As of December 31, nickel ore port inventory decreased by 120,000 tons to 8.69 million wet tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.36% [39] 3.6 Production Cost - As of December 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel increased by 143 US dollars/ton to 13,351 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.08% [58] - As of December 2025, the production costs of integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte for producing electrowon nickel were 111,026 yuan/ton and 124,817 yuan/ton respectively [58] - As of January 6, the production cash cost of RKEF in Fujian decreased by 0.57 yuan/nickel point to 940.34 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin increased by 3.31 percentage points to - 0.49% [74]

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a strong rebound due to Indonesia's plans to significantly reduce nickel ore supply quotas for 2026 and potential adjustments to pricing rules, leading to a surge in nickel prices to an 8-month high [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On December 23, LME nickel prices peaked at $15,980 per ton, while on December 24, Shanghai nickel reached 130,880 yuan per ton, marking the highest levels in eight months [1]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract has seen a continuous rise for six trading days, with a maximum cumulative increase of over 17% since hitting a five-year low on December 17 [3]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association (APNI) announced a target of approximately 250 million tons for nickel ore production in the 2026 work plan, a significant reduction from the 379 million tons set for 2025, aimed at preventing further price declines [3]. - The potential revision of the nickel reference price calculation formula may classify by-products like cobalt as independent commodities, which could lead to increased costs in the nickel industry [3][6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the price surge, analysts caution that the nickel market still faces oversupply pressures, with high inventories and weak demand persisting [2][7]. - Current nickel inventories at the London Metal Exchange stand at 253,000 tons, while domestic refined nickel stocks have reached 59,000 tons, indicating a continued oversupply situation [7]. - The demand side is entering a traditional off-peak season, with expectations of reduced production in stainless steel and other sectors, further complicating the supply-demand balance [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The implementation of Indonesia's supply quota reduction is seen as a critical factor for future nickel price trends, with a potential marginal improvement in the supply-demand balance if the quota is enforced [8]. - Analysts suggest that while market sentiment is currently positive, the underlying oversupply may limit the sustainability of the price rebound, indicating a need to monitor the situation closely [8].

Group 1: Report's Core Viewpoints - Nickel faces concerns about Indonesian policies, leading to a sentiment-driven price increase on the trading floor [4] - Stainless steel has a weak supply - demand fundamental situation, and is affected by news of Indonesian nickel mines [4] Group 2: Industry News - On September 12, the Indonesian Forestry Task Force took over over 148 hectares of PT Weda Bay Nickel's mining area due to violations, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 metal tons per month [2] - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [3] - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for not providing claim and refund guarantees [3] - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued Ministerial Decree No. 17 (2025) regarding RKAB approval procedures, with the 2026 RKAB approval deadline set for November 15, 2025 [5] - Trump announced on October 10 that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1 and implement export controls on "all critical software" [5] - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [6] - Indonesian industrial parks are strengthening safety inspections, affecting the production of some nickel wet - process projects, with a production reduction of about 6000 nickel metal tons in December [6] - On November 21, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [6] - On December 12, China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs decided to impose export license management on some steel products starting January 1, 2026 [6] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the government will revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula in early 2026 and start taxing cobalt as an independent commodity [6] - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [7] Group 3: Fundamental Data Tracking Futures Data - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 123,440, and the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,905 [3] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 386,986, and the trading volume of the main stainless - steel contract is 263,756 [3] Industry Chain - Related Data - The price of 1 imported nickel is 122,250, the Russian nickel premium is 600, and the nickel bean premium is 2300 [3] - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 889, and the nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference is 334 [3] - The nickel plate import profit is 572 [3] - The price of laterite nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) is 55 [3] - In the stainless - steel market, prices of different products such as 304/2B rolls and 304/No.1 rolls vary, with price changes from different time periods [3] - The price of high - carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55, Inner Mongolia) is 8100, and the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,430 [3] - The nickel sulfate premium is 535 [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is +1, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is +1 [7]