| 作者：陈琳萱 | 研究助理：王若颜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号：F03108575 | 从业资格证号：F03134422 | | 交易咨询证号：Z0021508 | 联系方式：wangruoyan@zjtfqh.com | | 邮箱：chenlinxuan@zjtfqh.com | 审核：李文涛 | | 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 | 观点小结 镍&不锈钢 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 7 势势势势 | 镍 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 中性 | 当前市场焦点转向2026年的RKAB配额审批，印尼矿业协会预计相关流程将在未来三个月内完成。鉴于政策执行存在弹性，需警惕配额实际落地情 | | 核心观点 | 偏多 | 况与市场预期之间的偏差。总体来看，当前镍价借力于供应端的政策约束，有望暂时摆脱现实压力，但随着投机资金推动价格冲高至过度乐观区 | | | | 间，镍价或将接受基本面验证。 | | 镍矿价格 | 中性 | 截至1月6日，菲律宾红土镍矿0.9%、1.5%、1.8%CIF价格环比上周分别持平于2 ...

印尼镍矿政策再度点燃了镍市多头的热情。 近期印尼镍矿商协会（APNI）表示，政府在2026年工作计划和预算（RKAB）中提出的镍矿石产量目标约为2.5亿吨，较2025年RKAB设定的3.79亿吨大幅下 降，下调产量规划的目的是为了防止镍价进一步下跌。镍参考价HPM的计算公式也或将面临修订，核心重点是将镍的伴生矿产（尤其是钴）视为独立商品 并征收特许权使用费。 在该消息刺激下，对镍供应端减产的预期，强力扰动市场情绪，推动全球镍价顺势自近年低点快速反弹。盘面上看，截至24日盘中，沪镍主力连续合约已经 连续六个交易日上涨，相较12月17日创下的逾五年低点，累计最大涨幅已超17%。 图为沪镍主力合约日线图（来源：新华财经专业终端） 中金公司研报指出，印尼是全球最大的镍矿供应国，印尼通过禁止原矿出口、镍矿配额审批、镍矿指导价等产业政策加强对镍产业的控制力，其产业政策对 于镍价有举足轻重的影响力。虽然最终实施和分配情况仍然有不确定性，考虑到当前收紧镍矿配额对印尼经济冲击较小，且镍价抬升有利于增加税收，提升 本土资源的价值。中金认为，收紧镍矿配额政策最终落实的概率较大。 中信期货研报分析，如果最终配额按此计划落地，则对镍端 ...

2025 年 12 月 24 日 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）9 月 12 日钢联资讯：因违反林业许可证规定，印尼林业工作组接管 PT Weda Bay Nickel 超过 148 公顷矿区。印尼政府将负责管理该区域，并对该公司处以罚款。该矿区位于北马鲁古省哈马黑拉岛， 今年已通过的 RKAB 镍矿批复量级达 4200 万湿吨，其中包括 1000 万吨湿法矿，总矿区占地 4.7 万公顷， 包含 15 个矿点，印尼林业工作组接管区域占总矿区面积 0.3%，预计影响镍矿产量约 600 金属吨/月。 2）据外媒报道，中国暂停了一项针对从俄罗斯进口的铜和镍的非官方补贴。 3）根据钢联 9 月 22 日资讯，印尼能源和矿产资源部通过矿产和煤炭总局正式对印度尼西亚各地区的 190 家采矿公司实施制裁。暂停是因为这些公司没有按照适用的规定提供索赔和退款担保，尽管之前已经 镍：印尼政策担忧，盘面情绪性补涨 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | ...

12月23日，国内期市有色金属板块涨跌互现。其中，沪镍期货主力合约开盘报120280.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，沪镍主力最高触及123490.00元，下方探低120280.00元，涨幅达 3.64%。 目前来看，沪镍行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于沪镍后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 金瑞期货表示，展望后市，成本抬升预期抬高底部位置，结合超跌修复动力，市场情绪积极，上涨趋势 或持续，不过我们维持将配额削减可能性作为风险点看待，基准情形下过剩预期仍明确，基本面驱动乏 力，关注情绪消减后的右侧机会。短期沪镍主力核心区间【11.5，12.5】万元/吨。 西南期货分析称，从基本面来看镍矿价格趋稳，印尼方面打击非法矿山，叠加菲律宾进入雨季，后续镍 矿生产开采活动或受影响，矿价下方有支撑，另外不锈钢压力向上传导，下游镍铁厂亏损加大，印尼部 分高成本镍铁厂停产检修，不锈钢进入传统消费淡季，且受制于终端地产消费仍旧疲软，叠加镍铁成交 依旧冷清，钢厂压价心理较强，现实消费仍旧难言乐观，上方压力较大，精炼镍现货交投走弱，库存国 内大致持稳，但仍处于相对高位，总体看一级镍仍旧处于过剩格局 ...

2025 年 12月 21 日 基本面供需双弱。印尼镍矿消息扩 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021479 张再宇 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 消息点评:印尼政策削弱空方信心,短线获得一定支撑,但上行驱动仍需关注政策落地情况。 1）印尼政府敦促企业重新提交了 2026 年 RKAB 预算，市场公开消息称印尼希望可以削减至 2.5 亿吨 镍矿配额。根据我们测算,预计 2024-2026年印尼镇矿需求为 2.5、2.8和3.0 亿吨,2.5 亿吨的配额或 造成矿端的紧缺,甚至倒逼冶炼端减产,进而将原生镍过剩预期扭转为紧缺,并对存量的高库存形成较大 冲击。不过,从印尼"下游政策"的角度来看,矿端迅速的"一刀切",易于激化与下游外资冶炼企业的 矛盾,实际落地情况仍有待观察。因此,此消息表现为削弱空方信心。 2)市场公开消息称,印尼希望将镇矿中的伴生矿物,如钻,纳入征税体系。在上半年,印尼就将高 品镍矿资源税进行了调整。不论从印尼希望削减配额并防止过剩的态度,以及财政税收的角度来看,印尼 均不希望镍价深跌。从政策影响来看,高品镍矿资源税作用于基价,就率由 18%提高至 14%以上,理论上 转嫁给冶炼成本 700 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the fundamental contradictions in the Shanghai nickel market are accumulating, and the volatility is expected to increase. The static reference range is 95,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton. The overall supply - demand surplus pressure persists. The supply side may experience a path switch. The second - phase expansion of low - cost hydrometallurgical production may impact pyrometallurgical processes, and the traditional nickel - to - ferronickel conversion path may face clearance risks. The pricing of various nickel products is expected to gradually converge, with the lower limit anchored to the full cost of hydrometallurgical production. The upward drive depends on Indonesian policy disturbances [2][107]. - Stainless steel has shifted from a situation of strong supply and weak demand to a situation of weak supply and demand. It may tend to fluctuate at the bottom, with limited downward potential. The increase in hydrometallurgical nickel supply may indirectly increase the pressure on pyrometallurgical production but does not directly replace it in the stainless - steel production line. The cost of the pyrometallurgical path is still the bottom - line anchor for stainless steel, with a reasonable safety margin. The upper limit of the price depends on Indonesian and domestic macro - policies, with a static reference range of 12,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton [2][107]. - In terms of strategies, when facing a weak smelting - end fundamental situation and high uncertainty at the mining end, two approaches can be considered: for short - selling, avoid chasing short positions at low prices, consider short - selling at high prices with option protection to avoid extreme Indonesian risk events; for long - buying, dynamically track the cost of hydrometallurgical nickel, including the prices of by - product cobalt and auxiliary sulfur, to find a good safety margin. For stainless steel, the cost still provides support, and the safety margin is better than that of nickel. In 2026, the overall strategy is to try long positions when the price hits the bottom, but avoid over - chasing high prices without clear policy implementation. Also, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on stainless steel and short on nickel when the nickel - to - steel ratio is high, and consider the possibility of periodic domestic - foreign positive/negative arbitrage [3][108]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Review of Nickel and Stainless - Steel Trends: Volatility Narrowed, and the Market Trended Weakly in Fluctuations - In 2025, the overall volatility of nickel and stainless - steel narrowed, and the oscillation center gradually moved downward. From January to March, they trended strongly, with the highest increases approaching 9% and 6% respectively, driven by mining - end rainy seasons, Indonesian quota approvals, and inventory replenishment by major traders. From April to June, they first declined and then rebounded, shifting from fundamental to macro - logical drivers. From July to November, they trended weakly in fluctuations, with the center gradually moving down due to factors such as inventory build - up expectations and weakening demand [5]. 3.2 The Production Cycle Shifts to Hydrometallurgy, Be Wary of Indonesian Mining - End Risks 3.2.1 The Supply of Refined Nickel and Nickel Sulfate Depends on Front - End Smelting - In 2025, the back - end smelting production cycle entered the second half, and the industrial model change led to structural contradictions in supply and demand. The global refined nickel output from January to October increased by 50,000 tons year - on - year to 900,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of 6%, mainly contributed by China. The global nickel sulfate output from January to October decreased by 10,000 tons year - on - year to 420,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of - 2%. However, in mid - 2025, China's supply elasticity was released due to a temporary recovery in new - energy demand [9]. - There were structural contradictions in supply and demand. Intermediate products and nickel sulfate were in short supply, while refined nickel inventories increased significantly. The high inventory and selling pressure of refined nickel squeezed the valuation of Shanghai nickel. The tightness of intermediate products was due to the transformation of the industrial model, with resources integrating towards "integrated" or "equity resource + toll - processing" enterprises [10]. - The supply contradiction is concentrated in the front - end, and the increase depends on hydrometallurgical supply. The planned intermediate product projects from 2026 - 2027 may have a total capacity of over 600,000 tons, with hydrometallurgical projects accounting for 87% of the capacity. It is expected that the production of Indonesian MHP in 2025 and 2026 will increase by 130,000 and 160,000 tons year - on - year to 460,000 and 620,000 tons respectively, and the production of Indonesian oxygen - enriched side - blown ferronickel will increase by 20,000 and 30,000 tons year - on - year to 40,000 and 70,000 tons respectively [17][19]. - The competitiveness of RKEF conversion to ferronickel may continue to weaken. In 2025, the volume of converted ferronickel decreased by 100,000 tons year - on - year to 270,000 tons. In 2026, due to the increasing year - on - year growth of MHP and oxygen - enriched side - blown ferronickel, the supply of converted ferronickel may face more severe challenges [25]. 3.2.2 The Incremental Supply of Ferronickel is Limited, but the Stock Elasticity is Still High - In 2025, the supply of Indonesian ferronickel continued to squeeze the Chinese and overseas markets. The global ferronickel output from January to October increased by 150,000 tons year - on - year to 1.84 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of 9%, mainly contributed by Indonesia. The output of Chinese and other overseas regions decreased by 50,000 tons year - on - year to 380,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of - 10%. The ferronickel market had a certain inventory build - up, but due to cost support, the price decline was limited [28]. - The expected new production in Indonesia is slowing down, and the incremental supply of ferronickel is limited. In 2026, the growth of Indonesian ferronickel production capacity is expected to slow down from 10% to about 5%. It is expected that the global ferronickel supply in 2026 will increase by 60,000 tons year - on - year to 2.26 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of about 3%. The strategy for the ferronickel - stainless - steel line is to try long positions when the price hits the bottom, but avoid over - chasing high prices without clear supply disturbances or policy guidance [31]. 3.2.3 The Contradiction in Indonesian Nickel Mines has High Uncertainty - The contradiction at the mining end and the inventory build - up at the smelting end are in a game, and Indonesian policies still have high uncertainty. The pricing of Indonesian pyrometallurgical nickel mines has adopted a "base price + premium" model since 2023. The decline in LME nickel prices has led to a decrease in the base price, but the premium has increased, offsetting the risk of squeezed profits. The total price of Indonesian pyrometallurgical nickel mines increased slightly, which may lead to a 5% increase in the full - cost center of ferronickel produced by Indonesian self - supplied power plants to about $11,000/metal ton [40]. - From the perspective of policy expectations, Indonesia may take appropriate measures to prevent resource over - supply, such as changing the quota approval from three - year to one - year in 2026. However, Indonesia may not want a sharp increase in nickel prices and may prefer to control quotas to prevent over - supply and moderately boost prices [41]. - The cost of Indonesian hydrometallurgical production is rising steadily, and the high cobalt price supports the economic viability of nickel. The price of hydrometallurgical ore is rising moderately, and the increase in the price of auxiliary sulfur has pushed up the MHP cost. However, the increase in the by - product cobalt price can offset part of the cost, so the negative impact on MHP production economics is limited [51]. 3.3 Demand Contradictions may not be Prominent, and Long - Term Potential Lies in Ternary Materials 3.3.1 The Short - Term Growth of Ternary Material Demand is Moderate, and More Long - Term Potential is Expected - The positive and negative impacts of the increase in electric vehicle penetration rate and the decline in the structural proportion of ternary batteries offset each other, resulting in a weak growth pattern for ternary materials. In 2025, the global electric vehicle demand increased by over 20%, while the global ternary battery output increased by only over 10% year - on - year, and the inventory pressure in the industrial chain decreased [53]. - In 2026, the "positive total" and "negative structure" drivers of new - energy demand for nickel will both weaken, but still offset each other to some extent. The global electric vehicle demand growth rate may decline, and the ternary market share may still face pressure. However, the negative impact of inventory reduction on upstream demand is weakening, and the elasticity of demand during seasonal peak replenishment is increasing [53]. - Future potential depends on emerging demands such as solid - state batteries, robots, and low - altitude economy. 2027 may be an important turning point for demand. If the investment in solid - state batteries meets expectations, the ternary material demand may still grow weakly in 2026 but may turn around in 2027 [54]. 3.3.2 The Incremental Demand for Alloys is Limited, and the Raw - Material Structure is Changing - The growth rate of alloy demand is expected to be limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in high - temperature and corrosion - resistant alloys. The overall growth rate of alloy demand has been declining year by year. The demand for corrosion - resistant alloys is under pressure due to factors such as the slowdown in the expansion of LNG receiving stations and the decline in LNG shipping orders. The demand for high - temperature alloys is more resilient, but the orders may be concentrated in leading enterprises [69]. - The price difference between ferronickel and refined nickel may converge in the long run. Some alloy special - steel enterprises may adjust their raw - material structure by using more ferronickel to replace refined nickel, which may intensify the supply - demand mismatch of refined nickel and also provides a new perspective on whether the conversion of ferronickel to ferronickel will be phased out in the long run [70][71]. 3.3.3 The Demand Elasticity of Stainless Steel is Low, and the Supply Rhythm Affects Nickel Consumption - The demand for stainless steel is growing weakly. The demand elasticity is low, and it is difficult to have unexpected performance. From 2020 - 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of apparent demand decreased marginally, mainly affected by factors such as the slowdown in terminal manufacturing investment, the drag of the real - estate post - cycle sector, and overseas trade barriers [89]. - The stainless - steel market has shifted from strong supply and weak demand to weak supply and demand, and the bottom - grinding market may be repeated. In 2025, the stainless - steel market was in a "bottom - seeking" process, and the supply growth rate decreased from over 8% to 3.2%. In 2026, if the stainless - steel market remains undervalued, the excess pressure is unlikely to increase. The strategy for stainless steel in 2026 is to try long positions at low prices, and the upward potential depends on external policy drivers [94][95]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook 3.4.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From a static balance perspective, in 2026, the surplus contradiction in the nickel smelting end still exists. The supply side may increase by 80,000 tons year - on - year to 3.86 million tons, and the demand side may increase by 80,000 tons year - on - year to 3.63 million tons, with a surplus of 240,000 tons. The increase in low - cost supply may lower the clearing line for nickel prices, but the upward potential also depends on Indonesian mining - end policies [101]. - Dynamically, there are uncertainties about whether the inventory build - up in 2026 will be as expected, including the impact of Indonesian mining - end policies, the speed of the clearing process, the impact of macro - policies, and the possibility of hidden inventory replenishment [103]. 3.4.2 Conclusion - The fundamental contradictions in the Shanghai nickel market are accumulating, with increased volatility expected in 2026. The static reference range is 95,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton. Stainless steel has shifted to a weak supply - demand pattern, with a static reference range of 12,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton [107]. - The strategies include avoiding short - selling at low prices, considering short - selling at high prices with option protection, dynamically tracking the cost of hydrometallurgical nickel for long - buying, and paying attention to the opportunity of long - stainless steel and short - nickel when the nickel - to - steel ratio is high, as well as periodic domestic - foreign positive/negative arbitrage [108]. - In 2026, the front - end smelting may enter a second peak of low - cost replacement of high - cost production. The pyrometallurgical path still has pressure but also provides a certain safety margin. The static balance is still challenged by Indonesian policies, and the long - term outlook is promising, with 2027 possibly being an important turning point [109][110].

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of the year, driven by supply constraints and macroeconomic factors, but ultimately fell due to oversupply conditions [1][2][9] Nickel Price Trends - In Q1, nickel prices rose to a high of 136,000 yuan/ton due to tight supply and favorable macro conditions, but in Q2, prices declined as oversupply became a concern [1] - Specific events influencing prices included Indonesia's RKAB quota reduction in January, trade tensions affecting demand in April, and subsequent policy changes in Indonesia and the Philippines [1][2] Policy Impact - Indonesian and Philippine nickel mining policies significantly affect nickel prices, with both countries accounting for nearly 70% of global nickel production by 2024 [2][3] - Policies can be categorized into "quantity" (e.g., RKAB quotas, export bans) and "price" (e.g., HMA price adjustments, increased resource usage fees), with quantity controls having a more immediate market impact [3] Supply Dynamics - Nickel production capacity is expected to continue growing, particularly in Indonesia, despite a slowdown in new project launches due to declining nickel prices [4][5] - The MHP production capacity is expanding, while the high-nickel battery market is facing challenges, leading to a subdued performance in the nickel sulfate market [4][5] Demand Outlook - Stainless steel, which accounts for over 60% of nickel demand, is facing pressure due to high nickel iron costs and weak downstream consumption [7] - The electric vehicle sector, a key growth area for nickel demand, is experiencing increased competition, leading to a decline in the market share of ternary batteries [8] Market Forecast - The overall nickel market is expected to remain oversupplied, with prices likely to fluctuate between 110,000 and 128,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [9]

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to oversupply, with expectations for the second half of the year to focus on short-selling and selling call options [1][8]. Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices fluctuated widely in the first half of the year, reaching a high of 136,000 yuan/ton in Q1 due to tight supply and favorable macro conditions, but fell back in Q2 due to oversupply [1]. - The price dynamics were influenced by various factors, including Indonesia's RKAB quota adjustments and the Philippines' export bans, which significantly impacted market reactions [1][2]. Policy Impact on Supply - Indonesian and Philippine nickel policies aim to increase industry revenue, categorized into "quantity" and "price" controls, with quantity controls having a more direct but challenging implementation [2]. - The likelihood of significant supply cuts is low, as both countries face resistance to drastic measures that could impact production and employment [2]. Production and Cost Trends - Nickel iron costs have risen due to tight supply of high-grade nickel ore, while demand from stainless steel has weakened, leading to price pressures [3][4]. - The production capacity of MHP and high-nickel products continues to expand, but the pace of new project launches may slow due to declining nickel prices [3][4]. Demand Dynamics - Stainless steel, which accounts for over 60% of nickel demand, has seen production growth, but overall demand is expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and lackluster real estate market performance [6][8]. - The electric vehicle sector, a significant source of nickel demand, is facing challenges as competition increases and the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries rises [7]. Market Outlook - The overall outlook for nickel prices remains bearish, with expectations for seasonal supply increases in Q3 potentially leading to further price declines [8]. - Despite the downward pressure, there may be temporary price increases due to conflicting interests between resource countries and market dynamics [8].