Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the weakening of the dividend style in the market, with the cash flow ETF (159399) seeing over 1% increase as funds are being bought on dips, indicating a trend of investors seeking safety in dividend assets amid market volatility [1] - Since December, the cash flow ETF has attracted over 4.6 billion yuan in inflows over the past 10 days, bringing its total size to over 4.5 billion yuan, reflecting a strong interest in dividend stocks as a defensive strategy [1] - Historical data suggests that dividend styles tend to yield significant excess returns in December, January, and April, as investors often turn to dividend stocks for risk aversion before year-end and during performance reporting periods [1] Group 2 - The cash flow ETF (159399) has been consistently distributing dividends for 9 months since its launch, with evaluations conducted monthly, presenting an opportunity for interested investors [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a recovery trend this week, with major indices posting weekly gains, particularly small-cap and micro-cap stocks, with the ChiNext Index and the Guozheng 2000 Index both rising over 4% [1] - The market is expected to face challenges in the coming weeks due to a performance vacuum and policy vacuum typical of year-end periods, leading to reduced upward momentum [2] Macro Events - Three significant macro events are anticipated in December: 1. The Central Political Bureau meeting, which has historically been held in early December [3] 2. The Central Economic Work Conference, typically convened in mid-December [4] 3. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announcement on December 11 [5] Market Dynamics - The market is likely to experience volatility until early December, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing two key resistance levels: the gap from November 21 and the mid-level high of 3967 points from November 20 [6] - The recent drop in trading volume, with the A-share market's turnover falling below 2 trillion yuan for 11 consecutive trading days since November 14, indicates a prevailing cautious sentiment among investors [2] Sector Opportunities - The recovery in the market has been characterized by sector-specific rebounds, particularly in areas with catalytic factors such as lithium batteries and AI hardware [8] - Notable sectors for potential investment include: 1. AI applications and commercial aerospace, both of which have shown strong performance recently [9] 2. The lithium and energy storage sectors, which are experiencing price increases and innovation [10] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to be cautious, especially in the latter half of next week, and to consider preserving gains from the year if their trading capabilities are limited [10] - The focus should be on core stocks within the identified sectors, as sustained leadership is crucial for the continuation of sector rallies [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the market may continue to trend upwards due to overall global liquidity and attractive relative valuations of A-shares [1] - The China Securities A500 ETF (159338) has seen a net inflow of 17,400 units, indicating a balanced capital influx into broader market indices [1] - Investors are advised to focus on high-growth sectors supported by policies while closely monitoring major indices for potential new trend formations [1] Group 2 - The China Securities A500 ETF (159338) ranks first in total account numbers among its peers, with three times the number of accounts compared to the second-ranked ETF [1] - The ETF is positioned as a strategic opportunity to capture the medium to long-term stabilization and recovery of the Chinese economy [1] - The article suggests that interested investors may consider the China Securities A500 ETF (159338) for investment [1]

Group 1 - The external and internal environment has improved, leading to a market rebound as international trade conflicts have not escalated and negotiations with the US have begun [1] - The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut to support the real economy, encouraging market sentiment and slightly shifting the focus upward [1] - The market has entered an earnings vacuum period after the annual and quarterly reports have been disclosed, with thematic investments becoming more active [1] Group 2 - The two markets experienced a volatile rebound with increased trading volume, as the Shanghai Composite Index has continuously risen and filled the gap from April 7 [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index showed a catch-up characteristic but has not yet filled the upper gap, indicating a mixed performance [1] - Market hotspots last week were mainly concentrated in the military and high-end manufacturing sectors, with a general upward trend across various investment styles [1]

Report Overview - The report is a macro financial data daily report released by the Guomao Futures Research Institute's Macro Financial Research Center on May 7, 2025 [2][3] Central Bank Operations and Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 1087 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan [3] - This week, 1617.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 1087 billion yuan and 530.8 billion yuan maturing on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively [4] - The Politburo meeting stated the need to "timely cut reserve - requirement ratios and interest rates", "create new structural monetary policy tools, and establish new policy - based financial tools to support technological innovation, expand consumption, and stabilize foreign trade" [4] Interest Rate Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | | DRO01 | 1.71 | -7.58 | | DR007 | 1.73 | -7.14 | | GC001 | 1.71 | 17.00 | | GC007 | 1.74 | 1.50 | | SHBOR 3M | 1.75 | -0.20 | | LPR 5 - year | 3.60 | 0.00 | | 1 - year Treasury Bond | 1.46 | 0.25 | | 5 - year Treasury Bond | 1.51 | 0.75 | | 10 - year Treasury Bond | 1.63 | 0.50 | | 10 - year US Treasury Bond | 4.36 | 3.00 | [3] Stock Index and Futures Market Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 1.01% to 3808.5, the SSE 50 rose 0.55% to 2647.7, the CSI 500 rose 1.93% to 5740.3, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.57% to 6102.9 [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1336.2 billion yuan, an increase of 166.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [6] - Most industry sectors rose, with small metals, power equipment, consumer electronics, precious metals, general equipment, communication equipment, computer equipment, diversified finance, and motor sectors leading the gains, while only the banking sector declined [6] Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (%) | Volume Change (%) | Open Interest Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Current Month | 3798 | 1.2 | 22.8 | 0.9 | | IH Current Month | 2646 | 0.7 | -0.6 | 0.0 | | IC Current Month | 5706 | 2.1 | 19.0 | 3.3 | | IM Current Month | 6060 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.9 | [5] Market Outlook and Strategy - On the first trading day after the holiday, the A - share market showed a gap - up and high - going trend driven by the collective recovery of overseas markets, with IM leading the gains in index futures [7] - Two repair drivers are worthy of attention: the expectation of Sino - US tariff relaxation and the verification of overseas AI industry prosperity are beneficial to improving market liquidity and boosting the technology sector; after the earnings disclosure window in late April, the performance uncertainty of small - and medium - cap companies has significantly decreased [7] - The CSI 1000's repair strength has significantly lagged behind large - cap indexes such as the CSI 300. If the market continues to recover, its technical catch - up potential is worthy of attention. Historically, the average excess return of CSI 1000 index constituents during the earnings vacuum period (May - July) is 2.3% [7] - It is expected that the significant differentiation between large - and small - cap styles may converge. The strategy is to focus on the elasticity release opportunities of small - and medium - cap stocks after the market stabilizes, with IM as the main long - position variety [7] Index Futures Premium and Discount | Variety | Current Month Contract | Next Month Contract | Current Quarter Contract | Next Quarter Contract | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Premium/Discount | 10.49% | 9.02% | 7.04% | 5.35% | | IH Premium/Discount | 2.64% | 5.55% | 5.00% | 3.24% | | IC Premium/Discount | 22.09% | 16.72% | 11.98% | 9.90% | | IM Premium/Discount | 25.91% | 19.90% | 14.46% | 12.20% | [8]

Market Performance - The domestic equity market continued a slight rebound last week, with an average daily trading volume around 1.1 trillion yuan, and the Wind All A index rose by 1.15% [1] - Among major domestic stock indices, small-cap indices performed well, with the CSI 1000 up by 1.8% and the CSI 2000 up by 2.7% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 increased by 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, while the SSE 50 and STAR 50 declined by 0.3% and 0.4% [1] - Hong Kong stocks also saw gains, with the Hang Seng Technology Index and Hang Seng Index rising by 2.0% and 2.7%, respectively [1] Sector Performance - The financial sector (+5.1%), automotive sector (+5.0%), and power equipment & new energy sector (+3.1%) experienced significant increases [1] - Conversely, the real estate sector (-1.2%), consumer services sector (-1.3%), and food & beverage sector (-1.4%) faced notable declines [1] Future Outlook - The upcoming week is the last trading week before the May Day holiday, with annual and quarterly reports from listed companies expected to be fully disclosed [1] - According to Hongde Fund, the market will enter a performance vacuum period over the next three months, with potential external environmental changes impacting the domestic capital market [1] - The fund expresses confidence in China's economic stability and growth, emphasizing the importance of high-quality development in response to external uncertainties [1] Policy and Market Sentiment - Current policies are primarily focused on "preparation" and "accumulating flexibility," with structural adjustments and localized support being the main themes [2] - The market is closely watching the progress of US-China negotiations and potential tariff reduction expectations [2] - In the bond market, interest rates for government bonds generally rose last week, with credit bond yields also increasing [2] - The market remains cautious, awaiting potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions from the central bank [2]