在最炎热的7月，北上广深楼市成交量集体下滑。最新数据显示，除深圳二手房成交量微升3.4%外，北 上广三城二手房及四城新房成交量在7月集体环比下降，其中新房市场跌幅尤为突出，上海跌幅甚至超 40%。 专家分析指出，传统淡季叠加极端高温、台风影响，以及前期政策效应衰减后进入"真空期"、买卖双方 价格预期僵持博弈、新增供应结构变化等多重因素，共同导致市场活跃度下降。 58安客居研究院院长张波分析认为，一线城市一二住宅成交量恢复整体性上涨，或需等到9月。 除了深圳，北上广二手住宅成交量环比下滑 在北京，据中原地产研究院统计数据，7月北京二手房住宅网签12784套，环比6月下降15.6%，也低于 2023年、2024年的同期，当中比2024年下降了17.9%。 值得关注的是，在2025年上半年，北京二手住宅累计网签 88575 套，逼近 9 万套，创三年以来同期新 高。 "这一降势并非偶然。2024年以来的一系列房地产利好政策对二手房市场的刺激作用贯穿 2025 年上半 年。然而到了7月，随着前期政策效应逐步衰减，市场缺乏新的有力政策支撑，购房者的入市热情逐渐 冷却。政策对市场的拉动作用边际递减，使得原本被政策激发的购 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term bullish factors are exhausted, sentiment falls, and pricing will return to fundamental - led during the policy vacuum period. The market has an expectation gap with the statement of the Politburo meeting. Fundamentally, pulp supply and inventory are at high levels, production profit and operating rate of four major papers are low, with new production capacity put into operation, and there is no long - term significant increase in demand expected. Although there is a seasonal boost in demand in August, the downstream purchasing intention is not positive. The price is expected to fluctuate after a decline, and it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and to wait and see [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Paper Pulp Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 19.03%, and the current volatility's 3 - year historical percentile is 58.0% [3] Paper Pulp Hedging Strategy - For inventory management, when the coniferous pulp inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, enterprises with long spot exposure can short pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For procurement management, when the inventory of papermaking enterprises is low and they want to purchase according to orders, enterprises with short spot exposure can buy pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [3] Core Contradiction - The main contract closed at 5232 (-134), a decline of - 2.5%. Spot prices in Shandong, such as for Silver Star, Russian Needle, and Goldfish, all decreased. The policy vacuum period is coming, and pricing will return to fundamentals. There is an expectation gap in the Politburo meeting statement. Currently, pulp supply and inventory are high, production profit and operating rate of four major papers are low, and there is new production capacity. Although there is a seasonal boost in demand in August, the downstream purchasing intention is not positive. The price is expected to fluctuate after a decline, and it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and to wait and see [4] 利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - A significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate [5] 利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - Overseas pulp quotes continue to decline [5] Paper Pulp Quote Related - Futures contracts such as SP2509, SP2511, and sp2601 all showed price declines on July 30 - 31, 2025. CFR quotes for coniferous and broad - leaf pulp had different changes. Domestic spot prices of various types of pulp and domestic finished paper average prices also had different degrees of price changes [6][9]

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