Report Overview - The report is the Bond Research Weekly released on November 17, 2025, analyzing the sentiment changes of bond market sellers and buyers in the latest week [1][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - From November 11th to 17th, the bond market seller sentiment continued to decline, and the buyer sentiment remained negative. The divergence of seller views slightly increased. The bond market was in a policy vacuum period, and the driving force of positive factors was insufficient. After the release of the third - quarter monetary policy report, the market's expectation of the interest - rate cut time was postponed, and the sentiment entered a wait - and - see period [4] Summary by Directory 1. Seller Market Sentiment 1.1 Seller Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From November 11th to 17th, the unweighted tracking index was 0.38, a decrease of 0.11 compared with November 4th - 10th. The proportion of bullish views decreased. Currently, institutions generally hold neutral - bullish views: 2 are bullish, 5 are moderately bullish, and 17 are neutral. 8% of institutions are bullish, citing weak financial data, continuous decline in social financing growth, declining bank liability costs, and the continuation of the asset shortage pattern. 21% are moderately bullish, based on expectations of monetary policy easing, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading, potential decline in risk appetite, and downward space for yields. 71% are neutral, as the market is temporarily in a "policy vacuum period", lacking a clear single main line to drive interest - rate breakthroughs, and institutions may take profit, while the year - end rush - to - buy demand of banks and insurance may support the market [11] 1.2 Buyer Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From November 11th to 17th, the unweighted tracking sentiment index was - 0.03, up from November 4th - 10th. Currently, institutions generally hold neutral - bearish views: 4 are moderately bullish, 20 are neutral, and 5 are bearish. 14% of institutions are moderately bullish, due to warming market sentiment, sensitivity to positive factors, insensitivity to negative factors, and the brewing of a bullish consensus. 69% are neutral, because of policy uncertainty, institutional behavior disturbances, and the market entering a wait - and - see period. 17% are bearish, citing the narrowing of monetary policy space, rising risk appetite, exhaustion of positive factors, increasing negative disturbances, and cautious institutional behavior [12][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the policy "vacuum period" and with stable industrial operations, the prices of black building materials oscillated. The iron ore, which had a relatively large decline earlier, rebounded significantly. At night, the sector continued to oscillate, and the coking coal and coke futures prices weakened due to the fourth round of coke price increase negotiations [2][3]. - Currently, the contradictions in the industrial chain are not prominent, and there are no new changes in the macro and policy aspects to affect market expectations. Therefore, the black building materials prices lack a clear trend and are expected to remain volatile in the short term. If there are more favorable policies in the future, there may be a phased upward opportunity [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Port trading volume was 98.8 (-9) million tons. The spot price was strong. Overseas mine shipments were relatively stable but decreased month - on - month. The arrival of goods decreased week - on - week. The daily average molten iron was stable in the short term, but there was an increasing expectation of seasonal decline. The port inventory continued to accumulate, but the marginal supply - demand might improve. It is expected that after a rapid price decline, it will oscillate strongly in the short term [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The average price of crushed scrap in East China decreased by 4 yuan/ton. The supply of scrap steel decreased, and the demand was weak. The overall supply - demand of scrap steel was weak, and it is expected that the spot price will oscillate with the finished products in the short term [10]. Carbon Element - **Coke**: The futures market oscillated at a low level. The spot price in Rizhao Port increased by 10 yuan/ton. The supply was difficult to increase, and the demand was stable in the short term. After three rounds of price increases, the steel mills were resistant to further increases, but the fourth - round price increase was likely to be implemented. The coke price is expected to oscillate with the coking coal [10][12]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply was still tight, and the Mongolian coal import increase was limited. The spot price was strongly supported, but the futures price was suppressed by the finished products. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [13]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The short - term cost supported the price, but the supply - demand was loose, and there was insufficient driving force for price increase. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term cost was strong, but the supply - demand was loose, and the upward driving force was insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The national average price decreased by 3 yuan/ton. The supply might be disrupted, and the mid - and downstream inventories were moderately high. The current supply - demand was in surplus. If there was no more cold repair by the end of the year, the price would be under pressure; otherwise, it would rise [4][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost increased, and the bottom support was obvious. However, the supply - demand surplus suppressed the price increase. Recently, the weakening of the glass price dragged down the soda ash price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [4][15]. Steel - The spot market transactions were weak. The steel mills' profitability decreased, and the production decreased. The demand declined, and the overall inventory continued to decrease, but it was still higher than the same period last year. The fundamentals had contradictions. It is expected that during the off - season, the demand will weaken, and the price will have limited downward space. Pay attention to the potential upward driving force from the macro and policy [9]. Commodity Index - On November 12, 2025, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index, and the PPI commodity index all increased. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.63% on that day, decreased by 1.21% in the past 5 days, increased by 1.24% in the past month, and decreased by 5.87% since the beginning of the year [98][99].

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, with a daily fluctuation of $55, closing at $3977.03, a slight decrease of nearly 0.1%. Currently, gold is trading around $4012 [1] - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices decline, with the Nasdaq dropping by 445.81 points (1.90%), the S&P 500 down by 1.12%, and the Dow Jones falling by 0.84% [2] Employment Data - Revelio Labs reported a downward revision of September's job additions from 60,000 to 33,000, with October showing a loss of 9,100 jobs, marking the second worst performance of the year [4] Monetary Policy Uncertainty - Uncertainty regarding monetary policy is increasing market volatility, with mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials about future interest rate cuts. The expectation for a December rate cut has sharply decreased following a hawkish cut in October [5] - Cleveland Fed President Mester expressed concerns about persistent inflation levels, indicating that the Fed may not be prepared for further rate cuts, despite acknowledging issues in the labor market [5] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee voiced unease about rate cuts due to a lack of inflation data during the government shutdown, contributing to a "policy vacuum" that typically leads to heightened market volatility [7] Tariff and Trade Issues - The U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, which could have significant implications if the government loses the case. Trump has stated he will not announce new tariffs during the court's deliberation [8][10] AI Investment Concerns - A scenario reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis is unfolding around AI investments, with Michael Burry publicly shorting Nvidia and Palantir, while Deutsche Bank considers shorting AI stocks to hedge against risks in data center loans [11] - Global regulatory bodies are warning about an AI asset bubble, with the Monetary Authority of Singapore highlighting "tense valuations" in the tech and AI sectors, suggesting a potential sharp correction [13] - CEOs from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have issued warnings about high valuations in the U.S. stock market, predicting at least a 10% correction [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - With the weakening of macro - drivers, the trading of the black series will return to the real - world situation. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range this week as the overall supply - demand of iron ore tends to accumulate inventory, but the inventory accumulation pressure is within an expectable range, and the current domestic basis is still relatively high with a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - Last week, the black series rebounded collectively, with raw material prices rising more significantly due to positive macro - drivers such as the Fed's interest rate cut, better - than - expected Sino - US trade negotiation results, and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan. However, in the short term, it will enter a policy vacuum period. The Fed's interest rate cut has fully realized its positive impact, and hawkish statements have curbed market optimism. The 15th Five - Year Plan focuses more on new - quality productivity, with limited and long - term boost to steel demand. Although the adjustment of Sino - US tariff policies may maintain export resilience, the reality of weak supply and demand in domestic manufacturing data is difficult to improve [3] Supply - Overseas iron ore supply is increasing steadily, but the supporting strength is continuously weakening. In October, the weekly average shipment from Australia and Brazil was 27.32 million tons, a 2% month - on - month increase. From January to October, the weekly average shipment was 25.46 million tons, a 0.8% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the import volume in October will remain at a high level. In November, due to seasonal maintenance of Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipment ports, the supply is expected to decline by 10 million tons month - on - month but still have an increase of over 3 million tons year - on - year. Due to the high shipment in October, the arrival volume in November is expected to remain at an absolute high level, basically flat month - on - month and an increase of over 10 million tons year - on - year [3] Demand - Domestic demand has been declining month - on - month mainly because of the temporary tightening of environmental protection in Hebei, which led some steel mills to shut down or reduce their loads. This week, although the blast furnace operating rate increased, the molten iron output decreased. In addition, due to the continuous decline in finished product prices, the loss range of steel mills has further expanded, and the profitability rate has dropped to the lowest level of the year. Overall, the blast furnace operating rate and profitability rate are continuously declining due to environmental protection and weak terminal demand, but the decline slope is not steep. Coupled with steel mills entering the seasonal restocking cycle, domestic iron ore demand is expected to remain resilient [3] Inventory - The inventory level at the steel mill end has rebounded slightly month - on - month as steel mills enter the seasonal restocking cycle. Due to the high arrival volume at the same period and the decline in port clearance volume due to weather reasons, the port inventory has been continuously accumulating month - on - month [3] Price and Strategy - The price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures will be in the range of 760 - 810 yuan/ton, corresponding to an overseas price of about 100 - 107 US dollars/ton. The strategy is to conduct range operations and use covered call options [5]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced a collective decline in transaction volumes in July, attributed to multiple factors including extreme weather, policy effects waning, and a stalemate in price expectations between buyers and sellers [1][7][8]. Summary by Sections Transaction Volume Trends - In July, Beijing's second-hand housing transactions fell to 12,784 units, a decrease of 15.6% month-on-month and 17.9% compared to 2024 [3]. - Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions dropped to 19,337 units, a 7% decrease from June and a 5% decline year-on-year [4]. - Guangzhou reported 8,962 second-hand housing transactions, down 9.39% month-on-month and 10.68% year-on-year [4]. - Shenzhen was the exception, with a 3.4% increase in second-hand housing transactions, totaling 4,656 units [4]. New Housing Market Performance - The new housing market in these cities saw even more significant declines, with Shanghai's new residential transactions down 40.6% month-on-month [5]. - Guangzhou's new housing transactions fell by 25% to 4,874 units, while Shenzhen's new housing transactions decreased by 24.1% to 1,441 units [6]. Market Analysis and Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the recovery of transaction volumes in first-tier cities may not occur until September, as July is traditionally a slow season for real estate [7][9]. - The market is currently characterized by a price stalemate, with sellers reluctant to lower prices and buyers expecting further declines [3][9]. - Despite the downturn, the overall transaction volumes remain above critical thresholds, indicating resilience in the market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced a collective decline in transaction volumes in July, with the new housing market seeing particularly significant drops, especially in Shanghai where the decline exceeded 40% [1][5]. Group 1: Transaction Volume Trends - In July, Beijing's second-hand residential transactions fell to 12,784 units, a decrease of 15.6% month-on-month and 17.9% compared to the same month in 2024 [3]. - Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions reached 19,337 units, a month-on-month decline of 7% and a year-on-year decrease of 5% [4]. - Guangzhou's second-hand residential transactions totaled 8,962 units, with a month-on-month decline of 9.39% and a year-on-year drop of 10.68% [4]. - Shenzhen was the only city to see an increase, with second-hand residential transactions rising by 3.4% to 4,656 units [4]. Group 2: New Housing Market Performance - In Beijing, new residential transactions fell to 2,881 units in July, a decrease of 27.6% month-on-month and 29.6% year-on-year [6]. - Shanghai's new residential transactions saw a significant drop, with a 40.6% decrease in transaction area compared to June [6]. - Guangzhou's new residential transactions decreased by 25% month-on-month, with a total of 4,874 units [7]. - Shenzhen's new residential transactions also fell by 24.1%, totaling 1,441 units [7]. Group 3: Market Influencing Factors - The decline in transaction volumes is attributed to multiple factors, including extreme heat, typhoon impacts, and a lack of new supportive policies following previous real estate incentives [1][9]. - The market is currently characterized by a stalemate between buyers and sellers, with sellers holding onto previous price expectations while buyers anticipate further price declines [3][9]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with increased listing volumes in major cities indicating a shift towards a buyer's market [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term bullish factors are exhausted, sentiment falls, and pricing will return to fundamental - led during the policy vacuum period. The market has an expectation gap with the statement of the Politburo meeting. Fundamentally, pulp supply and inventory are at high levels, production profit and operating rate of four major papers are low, with new production capacity put into operation, and there is no long - term significant increase in demand expected. Although there is a seasonal boost in demand in August, the downstream purchasing intention is not positive. The price is expected to fluctuate after a decline, and it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and to wait and see [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Paper Pulp Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 19.03%, and the current volatility's 3 - year historical percentile is 58.0% [3] Paper Pulp Hedging Strategy - For inventory management, when the coniferous pulp inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, enterprises with long spot exposure can short pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For procurement management, when the inventory of papermaking enterprises is low and they want to purchase according to orders, enterprises with short spot exposure can buy pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [3] Core Contradiction - The main contract closed at 5232 (-134), a decline of - 2.5%. Spot prices in Shandong, such as for Silver Star, Russian Needle, and Goldfish, all decreased. The policy vacuum period is coming, and pricing will return to fundamentals. There is an expectation gap in the Politburo meeting statement. Currently, pulp supply and inventory are high, production profit and operating rate of four major papers are low, and there is new production capacity. Although there is a seasonal boost in demand in August, the downstream purchasing intention is not positive. The price is expected to fluctuate after a decline, and it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and to wait and see [4] 利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - A significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate [5] 利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - Overseas pulp quotes continue to decline [5] Paper Pulp Quote Related - Futures contracts such as SP2509, SP2511, and sp2601 all showed price declines on July 30 - 31, 2025. CFR quotes for coniferous and broad - leaf pulp had different changes. Domestic spot prices of various types of pulp and domestic finished paper average prices also had different degrees of price changes [6][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic economic fundamentals have weakened slightly, suppressing market enthusiasm for long - positions. After the previous market recovery following the easing of the tariff war, the index faces significant upward pressure after reaching the level of early April. Currently in a policy vacuum period, the market will experience rapid style rotation in the short term, lack an obvious main line, and is expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2506) at 3879.6, down 2.0; IH main contract (2506) at 2715.4, up 2.6. IF sub - main contract (2509) at 3807.6, down 0.8; IH sub - main contract (2509) at 2677.2, up 1.8. IC main contract (2506) at 5614.8, down 39.6; IC sub - main contract (2509) at 5426.2, down 30.0. IM main contract (2506) at 5950.0, down 48.6; IM sub - main contract (2509) at 5708.2, down 46.8 [2]. - Various spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. have different changes, with most showing a downward trend [2]. - Differences between quarterly and current contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM have different upward or downward trends [2]. Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is - 30,029.00, up 48.0; IH top 20 net position is - 10,765.00, down 37.0. IC top 20 net position is - 11,129.00, down 403.0; IM top 20 net position is - 31,392.00, down 988.0 [2]. Spot Price - CSI 300 at 3913.87, down 2.5; IF main contract basis at - 34.3, up 0.9. SSE 50 at 2733.63, up 5.2; IH main contract basis at - 18.2, down 2.4. CSI 500 at 5703.28, down 54.6; IC main contract basis at - 88.5, up 13.8. CSI 1000 at 6066.10, down 66.1; IM main contract basis at - 116.1, up 15.5 [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) at 10,241.23, down 97.50. Margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) at 18,058.58, up 45.23. North - bound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) at 1224.22, down 138.00. Repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume, billion yuan) at - 3570.0, up 4480.0. Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) at - 120.26 and - 246.33 respectively [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) at 48.72, down 21.40. Shibor (daily, %) at 1.452, down 0.054. IO at - the - money call option closing price (2506) at 37.00, down 10.60; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) at 13.40, up 0.10. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2506) at 76.60, up 12.60; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) at 13.67, up 0.37. CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) at 9.72, up 0.24. Volume PCR (%) at 70.50, down 9.56; Position PCR (%) at 68.31, down 1.62 [2]. Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares at 4.70, down 1.80; Technical aspect at 4.90, down 2.10; Capital aspect at 4.50, down 1.40 [2]. Industry News - From January to April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of domestic industrial enterprise profits above designated size accelerated further compared with the previous month, but the operating profit margin declined due to rising operating costs. Although industrial enterprise profits increased, the decline in profit margin had a certain negative impact on market sentiment. In April, industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and social retail sales of enterprises above designated size all declined compared with the previous values. The domestic economy faces certain pressure under tariff shocks [2]. Key Events to Watch - May 28, 10:00: New Zealand central bank interest rate decision. - May 29, 2:00: Minutes of the Federal Reserve's May monetary policy meeting. - May 30, 20:30: US April PCE and core PCE. - May 31, 9:30: China's May official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI [3].