Workflow
政策真空期
icon
Search documents
7月,北上广深楼市成交量集体下滑,专家指出原因
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-06 12:24
在最炎热的7月,北上广深楼市成交量集体下滑。 最新数据显示,除深圳二手房成交量微升3.4%外,北上广三城二手房及四城新房成交量在7月集体环比下降,其中新房市场跌幅尤为突出,上海跌幅甚至 超40%。 专家分析指出,传统淡季叠加极端高温、台风影响,以及前期政策效应衰减后进入"真空期"、买卖双方价格预期僵持博弈、新增供应结构变化等多重因 素,共同导致市场活跃度下降。 58安客居研究院院长张波分析认为,一线城市一二手住宅成交量恢复整体性上涨,或需等到9月。 除了深圳,北上广二手住宅成交量环比下滑 在北京,据中原地产研究院统计数据,7月北京二手房住宅网签12784套,环比6月下降15.6%,也低于2023年、2024年的同期,当中比2024年下降了 17.9%。 无独有偶,今年以来土地市场大热,楼面地价频创新高的上海,7月份一手住宅成交量也环比下减。据上海中原地产数据,当月上海新建商品住宅成交面 积34.1万平方米,环比减少40.6%。当月供应37.5万平方米,环比减少28.9%。入市23个楼盘中,高价房产品只有4个;难得出现1个均价低于3万元/平方米 值得关注的是,在2025年上半年,北京二手住宅累计网签 88575 ...
北上广深7月新房成交下滑,二手仅深圳独涨!主要是这些原因
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-08-05 15:13
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced a collective decline in transaction volumes in July, with the new housing market seeing particularly significant drops, especially in Shanghai where the decline exceeded 40% [1][5]. Group 1: Transaction Volume Trends - In July, Beijing's second-hand residential transactions fell to 12,784 units, a decrease of 15.6% month-on-month and 17.9% compared to the same month in 2024 [3]. - Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions reached 19,337 units, a month-on-month decline of 7% and a year-on-year decrease of 5% [4]. - Guangzhou's second-hand residential transactions totaled 8,962 units, with a month-on-month decline of 9.39% and a year-on-year drop of 10.68% [4]. - Shenzhen was the only city to see an increase, with second-hand residential transactions rising by 3.4% to 4,656 units [4]. Group 2: New Housing Market Performance - In Beijing, new residential transactions fell to 2,881 units in July, a decrease of 27.6% month-on-month and 29.6% year-on-year [6]. - Shanghai's new residential transactions saw a significant drop, with a 40.6% decrease in transaction area compared to June [6]. - Guangzhou's new residential transactions decreased by 25% month-on-month, with a total of 4,874 units [7]. - Shenzhen's new residential transactions also fell by 24.1%, totaling 1,441 units [7]. Group 3: Market Influencing Factors - The decline in transaction volumes is attributed to multiple factors, including extreme heat, typhoon impacts, and a lack of new supportive policies following previous real estate incentives [1][9]. - The market is currently characterized by a stalemate between buyers and sellers, with sellers holding onto previous price expectations while buyers anticipate further price declines [3][9]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with increased listing volumes in major cities indicating a shift towards a buyer's market [10].
南华纸浆产业风险管理日报:情绪退坡,回归基本面-20250731
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 07:53
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term bullish factors are exhausted, sentiment falls, and pricing will return to fundamental - led during the policy vacuum period. The market has an expectation gap with the statement of the Politburo meeting. Fundamentally, pulp supply and inventory are at high levels, production profit and operating rate of four major papers are low, with new production capacity put into operation, and there is no long - term significant increase in demand expected. Although there is a seasonal boost in demand in August, the downstream purchasing intention is not positive. The price is expected to fluctuate after a decline, and it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and to wait and see [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Paper Pulp Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 19.03%, and the current volatility's 3 - year historical percentile is 58.0% [3] Paper Pulp Hedging Strategy - For inventory management, when the coniferous pulp inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, enterprises with long spot exposure can short pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For procurement management, when the inventory of papermaking enterprises is low and they want to purchase according to orders, enterprises with short spot exposure can buy pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [3] Core Contradiction - The main contract closed at 5232 (-134), a decline of - 2.5%. Spot prices in Shandong, such as for Silver Star, Russian Needle, and Goldfish, all decreased. The policy vacuum period is coming, and pricing will return to fundamentals. There is an expectation gap in the Politburo meeting statement. Currently, pulp supply and inventory are high, production profit and operating rate of four major papers are low, and there is new production capacity. Although there is a seasonal boost in demand in August, the downstream purchasing intention is not positive. The price is expected to fluctuate after a decline, and it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and to wait and see [4] 利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - A significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate [5] 利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - Overseas pulp quotes continue to decline [5] Paper Pulp Quote Related - Futures contracts such as SP2509, SP2511, and sp2601 all showed price declines on July 30 - 31, 2025. CFR quotes for coniferous and broad - leaf pulp had different changes. Domestic spot prices of various types of pulp and domestic finished paper average prices also had different degrees of price changes [6][9]
瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20250527
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 09:46
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic economic fundamentals have weakened slightly, suppressing market enthusiasm for long - positions. After the previous market recovery following the easing of the tariff war, the index faces significant upward pressure after reaching the level of early April. Currently in a policy vacuum period, the market will experience rapid style rotation in the short term, lack an obvious main line, and is expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2506) at 3879.6, down 2.0; IH main contract (2506) at 2715.4, up 2.6. IF sub - main contract (2509) at 3807.6, down 0.8; IH sub - main contract (2509) at 2677.2, up 1.8. IC main contract (2506) at 5614.8, down 39.6; IC sub - main contract (2509) at 5426.2, down 30.0. IM main contract (2506) at 5950.0, down 48.6; IM sub - main contract (2509) at 5708.2, down 46.8 [2]. - Various spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. have different changes, with most showing a downward trend [2]. - Differences between quarterly and current contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM have different upward or downward trends [2]. Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is - 30,029.00, up 48.0; IH top 20 net position is - 10,765.00, down 37.0. IC top 20 net position is - 11,129.00, down 403.0; IM top 20 net position is - 31,392.00, down 988.0 [2]. Spot Price - CSI 300 at 3913.87, down 2.5; IF main contract basis at - 34.3, up 0.9. SSE 50 at 2733.63, up 5.2; IH main contract basis at - 18.2, down 2.4. CSI 500 at 5703.28, down 54.6; IC main contract basis at - 88.5, up 13.8. CSI 1000 at 6066.10, down 66.1; IM main contract basis at - 116.1, up 15.5 [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) at 10,241.23, down 97.50. Margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) at 18,058.58, up 45.23. North - bound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) at 1224.22, down 138.00. Repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume, billion yuan) at - 3570.0, up 4480.0. Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) at - 120.26 and - 246.33 respectively [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) at 48.72, down 21.40. Shibor (daily, %) at 1.452, down 0.054. IO at - the - money call option closing price (2506) at 37.00, down 10.60; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) at 13.40, up 0.10. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2506) at 76.60, up 12.60; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) at 13.67, up 0.37. CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) at 9.72, up 0.24. Volume PCR (%) at 70.50, down 9.56; Position PCR (%) at 68.31, down 1.62 [2]. Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares at 4.70, down 1.80; Technical aspect at 4.90, down 2.10; Capital aspect at 4.50, down 1.40 [2]. Industry News - From January to April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of domestic industrial enterprise profits above designated size accelerated further compared with the previous month, but the operating profit margin declined due to rising operating costs. Although industrial enterprise profits increased, the decline in profit margin had a certain negative impact on market sentiment. In April, industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and social retail sales of enterprises above designated size all declined compared with the previous values. The domestic economy faces certain pressure under tariff shocks [2]. Key Events to Watch - May 28, 10:00: New Zealand central bank interest rate decision. - May 29, 2:00: Minutes of the Federal Reserve's May monetary policy meeting. - May 30, 20:30: US April PCE and core PCE. - May 31, 9:30: China's May official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI [3].