Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 29, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai zinc futures opened with a gap down, leading the decline in the non - ferrous sector. The main contract 2510 closed at 22,170 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan or 0.81%, with increased volume and open interest. The LME zinc inventory decreased to below 60,000 tons, and the squeeze - out risk still exists due to the low - inventory pattern. The SHFE/LME ratio remains low, and the zinc ingot import window remains closed. The supply side is abundant as the refined zinc output is expected to increase to 621,500 tons in August. The downstream demand is still weak, and the开工 rates of galvanizing and zinc oxide are expected to hover at low levels. The external market is supported by interest - rate cut expectations and low inventory, showing an upward - biased trend. The internal - weak and external - strong pattern continues, and the domestic market is unlikely to decline deeply due to the influence of the external market. The SHFE zinc is oscillating between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands, testing the 22,000 - yuan integer mark [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The opening, closing, highest, and lowest prices, as well as the price changes, price change rates, open interest, and open - interest changes of SHFE zinc contracts 2509, 2510, and 2511 are provided. For example, the main contract 2510 opened at 22,210 yuan/ton, closed at 22,170 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan or 0.81%, with an open interest increase of 6,801 lots to 114,628 lots [7]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The LME zinc inventory decreased to below 60,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 spread is C7.6. The SHFE/LME ratio is low, and the zinc ingot import window remains closed. The import zinc concentrate processing fee continues to rise, with the zinc concentrate index rising by 2.2 dollars/dry ton to 92 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC remains at 3,900 yuan/metal ton. The refinery operating rate is at a high level, and the refined zinc output in August is expected to reach 621,500 tons. The downstream demand is weak, and the production and transportation in North China are restricted due to stricter environmental protection during the military parade. The external market is supported by interest - rate cut expectations and low inventory, while the domestic market is affected by the external market and is oscillating between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands, testing the 22,000 - yuan integer mark [7]. 2. Industry News - **Zinc Price and Premium Information**: On August 28, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc, 1 zinc, and high - end brands in different markets (such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong) are provided, along with the premium or discount information of different brands relative to the SMM average price, futures contracts, and other market prices. For example, in the Shanghai market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc is 22,105 - 22,190 yuan/ton, and the high - end brand Shuangyan is traded at 22,225 - 22,300 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Data Overview - **Data Charts**: The report mentions data charts such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][15]

》查看更多金属库存信息 LME铜库存 | 地点 | | | 前日库存 入库 出库 今日库存 变动 | | | 注册仓单 | 注销仓单 | 注销占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 155600 | 0 | 450 | 155150 | -450 | 143900 | 11250 | 7.25% | | 昌雄 | 48150 | 0 | 50 | 48100 | -50 | 46775 | 1325 | 2.75% | | 光阳 | 47175 | 0 | 0 | 47175 | 0 | 41125 | 6050 | 12.82% | | 鹿特丹 | 21500 | 0 | 0 | 21500 | 0 | 20900 | 600 | 2.79% | | हैं। | 18250 | 0 | 400 | 17850 | -400 | 15425 | 2425 | 13.59% | | 新加坡 | 9625 | 0 | 0 | 9625 | 0 | 8925 | 700 | 7.27% | | 雷港 | 7675 | 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 20.2 times, positioned at the historical 82nd percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.4 times, at the historical 59th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 34.8 times, at the historical 20th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 146.2 times, at the historical 100th percentile [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Building Materials, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense and Military Industry, Aviation and Airports, Light Industry Manufacturing, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2][6] - The Passenger Vehicle industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - The Shipping and Port industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - Photovoltaics: The price of polysilicon futures increased by 15.2% to 50,000 yuan, while the price of silicon wafers rose by 10.5% [2] - Battery materials: The prices of cobalt and nickel increased by 2.3% and 2.6%, respectively, while lithium prices saw increases of 7.1% for lithium hexafluorophosphate and 9.0% for lithium carbonate [2] Financial Sector - Insurance: The cumulative year-on-year growth of various insurance premiums was 5.3% for the first half of 2025, with an expected further reduction in the preset interest rate for life insurance products [3] Real Estate Chain - Steel: The spot price of rebar rose by 5.4%, and the futures price increased by 6.6% [3] - Cement: The national cement price index fell by 1.5% due to weak demand [3] Consumer Sector - Pork: The average price of live pigs decreased by 0.8%, while the wholesale price of pork increased by 1.0% [3] - Alcohol: The wholesale price index for liquor remained stable, with a slight decrease in the price of Moutai [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Excavators: Sales of excavators increased by 13.3% year-on-year in June 2025, with domestic sales up by 6.2% and exports up by 19.3% [3] Technology TMT - Optical Communication Modules: Exports decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with a significant drop in export prices [3] Cyclical Industries - Precious Metals: COMEX gold and silver prices fell by 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively [3] - Coal: The price of thermal coal rose by 1.7%, while coking coal prices increased by 9.5% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthened. There is a higher probability of the implementation of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of the supply - side "anti - involution" policy on assets. Overseas, focus on the progress of tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - US dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights Overseas Macro - The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the US on most economies have been released, with most rates (except for Japan and Malaysia) being lowered, reducing short - term tariff uncertainties. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3% (expected 0.2%, previous value revised from 0.1% to 0%), and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3% (expected - 0.3%, previous value - 0.3%). In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 3.2%). In June, the new non - farm employment in the US was better than expected, but there were concerns in the employment market. On July 4th, the "Big and Beautiful" Act was implemented, which may have limited long - term boost to the US economy and will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [7]. Domestic Macro - In June, China's export volume rebounded slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to the US was the main boost, and the "anti - involution" policy had a significant impact on some domestic - demand - oriented commodities. On July 1st, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to "regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity" [7]. Asset Views - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthened. Pay attention to the impact of the supply - side "anti - involution" on assets. Overseas, focus on tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - US dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights Macro - Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [8]. Finance - The sentiment in the stock market rebounds, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures continue a mild upward trend; stock index options remain cautious; the sentiment in the bond market for treasury bond futures weakens [8]. Precious Metals - The risk preference rises, and precious metals such as gold and silver continue to adjust [8]. Shipping - The sentiment in the shipping market falls. For the container shipping route to Europe, focus on the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases [8]. Black Building Materials - Iron ore performs strongly, supporting the price center of the sector. Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are in a volatile state, with different influencing factors for each [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - There is a game between reciprocal tariff negotiations and domestic policy stimulus expectations. Most non - ferrous metal varieties are in a volatile state, with some showing a downward trend, such as zinc and nickel [8]. Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ over - expected production increase will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Different chemical products have different short - term trends, such as some showing volatile rises, some showing volatile falls, and some remaining volatile [10]. Agriculture - In the agricultural sector, the prices of some products such as pigs are under pressure, and different agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock are in a volatile state, affected by various factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic being strengthened. The probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter is higher. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the supply - side on assets. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak - dollar pattern continues, and volatility jumps should be guarded against. Strategic allocation of resources such as gold should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials Overseas Macro - The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the United States for most economies have been announced. Except for Japan and Malaysia, most rates have been lowered, and short - term tariff uncertainty has declined. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3%, and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3%. In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0%. The number of new non - farm jobs in the US in June was better than expected, but there were concerns in the employment market. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US on July 4 will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [6]. Domestic Macro - In June, China's export volume increased slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to the US was the main boost. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's sixth meeting on July 1 proposed to regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. Commodities oriented to domestic demand and those that have been falling since the beginning of the year were greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights Macro - Domestically, there will be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. Financial - The sentiment in the stock market has risen, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures continue a moderately upward trend, stock index options remain cautious, and the sentiment in the bond market for treasury bond futures has weakened [7]. Precious Metals - Risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment. Gold and silver continue to adjust [7]. Shipping - The sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. For the container shipping route to Europe, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases [7]. Black Building Materials - The macro sentiment has temporarily cooled down, and black commodities have declined slightly. Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash all show a volatile trend [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - There is a game between reciprocal tariff and domestic policy stimulus expectations. Non - ferrous metals stop falling and rebound. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and other metals show different volatile trends [7]. Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and crude oil will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and other products show different trends such as volatile decline, decline, and volatility [9]. Agriculture - Agricultural varieties mostly show a volatile trend. Rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, cotton, sugar, and other products all show a volatile trend [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing demand for tin driven by cyclical recovery, advancements in AI, and the smart development of electric vehicles, alongside tightening global tin supply due to long-term production halts in Myanmar's Wa region [1] - On July 7, Chinalco International held a meeting to promote digital transformation and AI implementation, indicating a push for technological upgrades within the company [1] - Zijin Mining announced the completion of the acquisition of the Akyem gold mine in Ghana on the same day, strengthening its gold production capacity [1] Group 2 - Dongguan Securities noted that global macro sentiment is gradually improving, and the Federal Reserve has signaled a dovish stance, leading to a rebound in industrial metal prices [1] - As of July 2, LME prices for various metals were reported: copper at $10,010/ton, aluminum at $2,614.50/ton, lead at $2,063.50/ton, zinc at $2,753/ton, nickel at $15,340/ton, and tin at $33,585/ton [1] - The Nonferrous 60 ETF tracks the CSI Nonferrous Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the nonferrous metal sector, providing an efficient tool for industry allocation [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas geopolitical risks may intensify short - term market volatility and disrupt risk preferences. In the long run, the weak - dollar pattern continues. One should be vigilant about volatility jumps, pay attention to non - dollar assets, and maintain a strategic allocation of resource products such as gold. Domestic economic stability is maintained, and domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The logic of policy - driven growth will be strengthened in the second half of the year [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In June, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time, with a more cautious view on the second - half rate - cut expectation. In May, the US retail sales month - on - month rate dropped significantly from 0.1% to - 0.9%, the industrial output month - on - month rate fell by 0.2%, and the June New York Fed manufacturing index was - 16. The US economic fundamentals face geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects, and rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to issue hawkish signals [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations for the second half of the year. As of now, 162 billion yuan of "national subsidy" funds have been allocated to local governments, and the remaining funds will be disbursed in an orderly manner. In May, fixed - asset investment continued to expand, manufacturing investment grew rapidly, service industry growth accelerated, and the decline in the year - on - year prices of commercial residential buildings in cities of all tiers continued to narrow. The added value of industrial enterprises above the national scale increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. The service production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 reached 4.1326 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [6]. - **Asset Views**: The domestic economy maintains a stable pattern, and domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts, and the fiscal policy will implement established measures in the short term. Overseas, the inflation - expectation structure flattens, economic growth expectations improve, and stagflation trading cools down [7]. - **Finance**: The bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. Stock index futures are experiencing the release of crowded funds, stock index options need to wait for a decline in volatility, and the bullish sentiment in the bond market has weakened. All are expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Precious Metals**: With the improvement of risk appetite, precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments. The short - term adjustment of gold and silver will continue due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations [7]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the loading rate in June. The market for container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate, with a focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Due to the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict, coal and coke drive the black - building materials market to strengthen. Most products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are expected to fluctuate, while soda ash is expected to decline slightly [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Amid the coexistence of low inventory and weak demand expectations, non - ferrous metals will continue to fluctuate. Some products like zinc and nickel are expected to decline slightly [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil will maintain high volatility. Most energy - chemical products are expected to fluctuate, with some products like crude oil, asphalt, and others expected to decline slightly, while some like ethylene glycol and short - fiber are expected to rise slightly [9]. - **Agriculture**: After substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations, the sentiment is positive for the cotton - price rebound. Most agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with some products like oils and fats expected to decline slightly [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the non-ferrous materials sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a notable decline in various sub-sectors such as rare earths and gold [2][4] - COMEX gold futures closed at $3363.20 per ounce, down $69.4 per ounce, a decrease of 2%, while COMEX silver futures fell to $35.78 per ounce, down $0.5 per ounce, a decline of 1.38% [3][4] - Industrial metals showed slight price increases, with LME copper settling at $9945 per ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 3% [3][4] Group 2 - The non-ferrous materials sector saw a decline of 3.3%, with rare earths down 6.02% and gold down 5.34%, while aluminum remained stable [2][4] - Prices for various industrial metals, including LME aluminum and zinc, experienced weekly increases of 1.8% and 2%, respectively, while LME nickel saw a decrease of 1.34% [3][4] - The price of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide continued to decline, with lithium hydroxide prices dropping below 60,000 per ton, indicating potential losses for companies without cost advantages [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices, mainly consuming inventory, leading to poor spot market transactions and a further decline in spot premiums [3] - The TC of domestic zinc ore remains stable, the import window for zinc ore is closed, domestic ore has an advantage over imported ore, and the TC of imported ore in the third - quarter overseas continues to rise [3] - Smelters' raw material inventory is still sufficient, and the upward trend of the ore end remains unchanged [3] - Smelting profits remain stable, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged [3] - Consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, the zinc alloy operating rate is still increasing, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of accumulation, possibly due to the zinc alloy reservoir effect [3] - In the short term, be vigilant about energy disturbances caused by the Middle East crisis [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$30.04/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 190 yuan/ton to 22,200 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 25 yuan/ton to 155 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 170 yuan/ton to 22,190 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 45 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 180 yuan/ton to 22,210 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 35 yuan/ton to 165 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On June 18, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 21,885 yuan/ton and closed at 22,060 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 123,695 lots, a decrease of 694 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 97,228 lots, a decrease of 8,440 lots from the previous trading day. The highest price was 22,130 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,825 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 78,100 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons compared with the same period last week. As of June 18, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 128,250 tons, a decrease of 625 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices, mainly consuming inventory, resulting in poor spot market transactions and a further decline in spot premiums [3] - **Cost**: The TC of domestic zinc ore remains stable, the import window for zinc ore is closed, domestic ore has an advantage over imported ore, and the TC of imported ore in the third - quarter overseas continues to rise [3] - **Supply**: Smelting profits remain stable, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged [3] - **Consumption**: Consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, the zinc alloy operating rate is still increasing, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of accumulation, possibly due to the zinc alloy reservoir effect [3] - **Risk**: In the short term, be vigilant about energy disturbances caused by the Middle East crisis [3]