每经AI快讯，伦敦基本金属期货集体下跌，LME铜持续走低，现跌超5%；LME镍跌超7%，LME锌、 铝跌近5%。 每经AI快讯，伦敦基本金属期货集体下跌，LME铜持续走低，现跌超5%；LME镍跌超7%，LME锌、 铝跌近5%。 ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 22, 2026, most domestic commodity futures markets closed higher, with chemicals leading the gains [14]. - The US economy maintains a "slight to moderate" expansion, inflation continues to cool, and consumption shows a "K-shaped" characteristic [14]. - In 2025, China's consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, with service retail sales growing faster. In 2026, consumption is expected to grow steadily [14]. - In the short term, risk assets may continue to adjust, but in the medium term, it is recommended to go long on stock indices, non - ferrous metals, gold, and silver [14]. Summary by Directory Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 22, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4719.4, down 0.26; the SSE 50 futures price was 3061.2, down 0.61; the CSI 500 futures price was 8400, up 0.25; the CSI 1000 futures price was 8292.6, up 0.56 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures price was 102.408, down 0.02; the 5 - year was 105.835, down 0.04; the 10 - year was 108.15, down 0.04; the 30 - year was 112.17, down 0.03 [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 98.7693, up 0.23; the US dollar central parity rate was 6.9646, down 57 pips [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.4952%, up 0.04%; the 10 - year Chinese treasury bond yield was 1.8312%, down 0.14 bp; the 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.26%, down 4 bp [3]. Popular Industry Fluctuations - On January 22, 2026, industries such as national defense and military industry, steel, and petroleum and petrochemicals had relatively large daily increases, while industries such as food and beverage, non - bank finance, and banking had declines [6]. Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On January 21, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $59.52, up 0.3%; ICE Brent crude was at $64.62, up 0.67%; NYMEX natural gas was at $3.891, up 25.39%; ICE UK natural gas was at $105.29, up 12.07% [9]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold was at $4769.1, up 3.78%; COMEX silver was at $94.46, up 6.69% [9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper was at $12810, up 0.44%; LME aluminum was at $3115, up 0.24%; LME zinc was at $3175, up 0.06% [9]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans were at $1053, down 0.45%; CBOT soybean oil was at $54.05, up 2.83%; CBOT corn was at $424, down 0.18% [9]. Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - On January 22, 2026, most domestic commodities rose. Chemicals, new energy materials, non - metal building materials, energy products, etc. all had increases, while precious metals had declines [14]. Macro Summary - **Today's Market**: Domestic commodity futures markets closed mostly higher, with chemicals leading the gains [14]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy maintains a "slight to moderate" expansion, inflation cools, and consumption shows a "K - shaped" characteristic. Attention should be paid to upcoming GDP and inflation data [14]. - **Domestic Macro**: In 2025, China's consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, and in 2026, consumption is expected to grow steadily [14]. - **Asset Views**: The scenario of no interest rate cut in January is basically confirmed, and the first interest rate cut by the Fed within the year is expected to be postponed to June. Short - term risk assets may adjust, while in the medium - term, it is recommended to go long on certain assets [14]. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock markets continue to wait for the main line, and bond markets still have disturbing factors. The short - term judgments for stock index futures, index options, and treasury bond futures are oscillatory rise, oscillation, and oscillation respectively [15]. - **Precious Metals**: After oscillatory adjustment, they maintain an upward trend. Gold and silver are expected to rise oscillatory [15]. - **Shipping**: Pay attention to the resumption of voyages in the far - month. The short - term judgment for the container shipping European line is oscillation [15]. - **Black Building Materials**: Fundamentals are lackluster. Most varieties are expected to oscillate [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Wait for the macro - situation to become clearer. Base metals are oscillating and consolidating. Some varieties are expected to rise oscillatory, while others are expected to oscillate [15]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The trade tension eases slightly, but the supply - demand pattern is still under pressure. Most varieties are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Agriculture**: Sentiment warms up but trends diverge. Some varieties are expected to rise oscillatory, while others are expected to oscillate or decline oscillatory [17].

Group 1 - The LME copper inventory decreased by 500 J to 141,125 J, reflecting a change of -0.35% [1][5] - The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 J to 490,000 J, showing a change of -0.41% [1][6] - The LME zinc inventory decreased by 25 T to 106,700 T, indicating a change of -0.02% [1][10] Group 2 - The registered warehouse stocks for copper increased by 0.44% to 91,025, while the canceled warehouse stocks decreased by 1.76% to 50,100, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 35.50% [3] - The registered warehouse stocks for aluminum remained unchanged at 446,575, while the canceled warehouse stocks decreased by 4.40% to 43,425, leading to a cancellation ratio of 8.86% [3] - The registered warehouse stocks for zinc decreased by 0.26% to 98,125, while the canceled warehouse stocks decreased by 3.11% to 8,575, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 8.04% [3]

Group 1 - The overall inventory levels for various metals have shown fluctuations, with copper decreasing by 1,750 tons (-1.26%) to 137,225 tons, while aluminum decreased by 2,000 tons (-0.40%) to 495,825 tons [1][4] - Tin inventory increased significantly by 490 tons (+9.05%) to 5,905 tons, indicating a positive trend in this metal's stock [1][11] - The registered warehouse stocks for copper are at 115,150 tons, with a decrease of 0.17%, while the canceled warehouse stocks decreased by 6.56% to 22,075 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 16.09% [2][4] Group 2 - Aluminum registered warehouse stocks are at 446,050 tons, remaining unchanged, while canceled stocks decreased by 3.86% to 49,775 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 10.04% [2][5] - Zinc inventory decreased by 650 tons to 106,800 tons, with registered stocks at 98,750 tons and canceled stocks at 8,050 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 7.54% [9] - The tin inventory's registered stocks increased by 9.45% to 5,790 tons, while canceled stocks decreased by 8.00% to 115 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 1.95% [2][11]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 8, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The non - ferrous metals sector was driven by the strong performance of precious metals, and the supply tightening at the industrial end supported the upward shift of the zinc price center. However, the rapid short - term rally has accumulated certain correction risks. With the continuation of the current macro - narrative trend, Shanghai zinc has entered a high - level oscillation. [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc 2601, the opening price was 24,340 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,315 yuan/ton, with a rise of 135 and a gain of 0.56%. The open interest was 5,100, a decrease of 720. For SHFE zinc 2602, the opening price was 24,300 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,330 yuan/ton, with a rise of 195 and a gain of 0.81%. The open interest was 91,603, a decrease of 4,856. For SHFE zinc 2603, the opening price was 24,365 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,370 yuan/ton, with a rise of 180 and a gain of 0.74%. The open interest was 89,378, a decrease of 2,303. The main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 24,330 yuan/ton, up 195, with a gain of 0.81%, showing increased volume and decreased open interest. The top 20 positions in total open interest reduced both long and short positions, with a net long position decrease of 14 lots. [7] - **Inventory and Premium**: On January 7, LME zinc inventory decreased by 275 tons to 105,500 tons. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline. In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.2% month - on - month to 552,000 tons. Some spot circulation tightened, driving up the spot premium. After the holiday, downstream buyers made small - scale replenishments, but the sharp rise in the futures price led to a resurgence of high - price aversion. The spot trading was light. The premium in Shanghai market for contract 02 was 240 yuan/ton, Tianjin market reported a discount of 80 yuan/ton to Shanghai market, and the premium in Guangdong market for contract 02 was 20 yuan/ton. On Monday, the inventory of zinc ingots in seven major areas increased slightly by 0.87 million tons to 1.148 million tons. [7] 2. Industry News - **Price and Premium in Different Markets**: On January 7, 2026, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 24,335 - 24,650 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan brand was between 24,475 - 24,740 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 24,265 - 24,580 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 120 - 140 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. [8] - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream brand 0 zinc in Ningbo market was traded at around 24,345 - 24,610 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo quoted a premium of 200 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract and a premium of 90 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. [8] - **Tianjin Market**: The 0 zinc ingots in Tianjin market were mainly traded between 24,180 - 24,500 yuan/ton, and the Zijin brand was traded between 24,250 - 24,540 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc ingots were traded around 24,030 - 24,300 yuan/ton. Zijin quoted a premium of 100 - 130 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, and the ordinary 0 zinc quoted a premium of 30 - 90 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract. Tianjin market reported a discount of about 80 yuan/ton to Shanghai market. [8] - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream 0 zinc in Guangdong was traded between 24,165 - 24,450 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong markets narrowed. [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presented several data charts, including the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven major areas, and LME zinc inventory, but did not provide specific data analysis in the text. [10][12]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 19, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.1 times and a PB of 1.8 times, positioned at the 77th and 39th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE of 11.7 times and a PB of 1.3 times, at the 61st and 40th historical percentiles [2][5] - The CSI 300 Index has a PE of 14 times and a PB of 1.5 times, at the 62nd and 34th historical percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 39.9 times and a PB of 5.4 times, at the 32nd and 61st historical percentiles [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services (Software Development) [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile [2] Industry Economic Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain prices remained stable, with battery cell spot prices rebounding by 8.1% [2] - The price of polysilicon futures increased by 6.4%, while the price of lithium carbonate rose by 7.4% [2] - Concerns about tightening lithium supply emerged due to local mining permit cancellations [2] Real Estate Chain - The average sales area of commercial housing in China from January to November 2025 decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, with a notable decline in real estate investment by 15.9% [3] - The price of rebar increased by 1.2%, while iron ore prices rose by 1.6% [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.9%, while the wholesale price of pork rose by 0.2% [3] - Retail sales from January to November 2025 grew by 4.0% year-on-year, showing a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous ten months [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment from January to November 2025 increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% [3] - Heavy truck sales in November 2025 surged by 65.4% year-on-year, with new energy heavy trucks seeing a significant increase in sales [3] Technology TMT - The production of integrated circuits and optoelectronic devices in China increased by 10.6% and 9.7% year-on-year respectively [3] Commodities - The price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.1% to $60.55 per barrel, amid rising supply pressures [3] - The price of thermal coal decreased by 5.6%, while coking coal prices rose by 0.5% [3]

Group 1: Metal Inventory Changes - Copper inventory increased by 325 tons, reaching a total of 166,925 tons, with a change of +0.20% [1] - Aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 519,600 tons, with no variation [1] - Zinc inventory rose by 2,150 tons to 97,700 tons, reflecting a +2.25% change [1] - Nickel inventory increased by 690 tons to 253,998 tons, showing a +0.27% change [1] - Tin inventory saw a significant increase of 375 tons, totaling 4,190 tons, which is a +9.83% change [1] Group 2: Registered and Cancelled Warehouse Receipts - Registered warehouse receipts for copper increased by 102,475 tons, with a change of +0.27%, while cancelled receipts rose to 64,450 tons, up by +0.08% [2] - For aluminum, registered receipts decreased by 1.47% to 445,925 tons, while cancelled receipts increased by 9.96% to 73,675 tons [2] - Zinc registered receipts increased by 5.14% to 9,492 tons, while cancelled receipts decreased by 2.04% to 9,492 tons [2] - Tin registered receipts rose by 10.25% to 4,035 tons, with cancelled receipts remaining at 155 tons [2] Group 3: Specific Warehouse Inventory Changes - The inventory of copper in Changsha remained stable at 79,125 tons, with no incoming or outgoing changes [4] - In Kaohsiung, the copper inventory increased by 750 tons to 41,125 tons [4] - Rotterdam's aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 3,450 tons, with registered receipts at 2,450 tons [6] - The inventory of tin in Port Klang increased by 130 tons to 2,365 tons, while the inventory in Rotterdam rose by 150 tons to 560 tons [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production end heat is differentiated, the real - estate market has seasonal improvement, prices continue to rise, and the Baltic Dry Index continues to rise rapidly. Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment sides and the recovery of the real - estate market [2][33] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Production: Steel Output Declines, Asphalt Operating Rate Rises Slightly at a Low Level - **Steel**: Coke oven capacity utilization increased by 0.62 pct, blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.93 pct, and rebar output decreased by 16.77 tons. On the week of December 5th, the coke oven capacity utilization of domestic independent coking plants (230 samples) was 72.64%, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills (247 samples) was 80.16%, and the national building materials steel mill rebar output was 189.31 tons [3][10] - **Petroleum Asphalt**: The operating rate increased by 0.1 pct but remained at a low level. On the week of December 3rd, the domestic petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 27.9% [3][10] - **Chemical Industry**: PX operating rate decreased by 0.92 pct, and PTA operating rate remained flat. On December 4th, the domestic chemical PX operating rate was 89.21%, and the PTA operating rate was 73.81% [3][10] - **Automobile Tires**: The operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 0.17 pct, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 1.73 pct. On the week of December 4th, the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires was 63.5%, and that of semi - steel tires was 70.92% [11] 3.2 Demand: Seasonal Improvement in Commodity Housing Transactions, Rapid Uptrend of BDI Index - **Real Estate**: The commodity housing transaction area continued to rise, the inventory - to - sales ratio declined, the land supply area declined from a high level, and the residential land transaction premium rate rebounded. On the week of November 30th, the commodity housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities was 2.4449 million square meters, the inventory - to - sales ratio of 10 large cities was 89.07, the land supply area of 100 large and medium - sized cities was 34.2804 million square meters, and the residential land transaction premium rate was 3% [15] - **Movie Box Office**: It increased by 1.648 billion yuan compared with the previous week. On the week of November 30th, the national movie box office revenue was 211.1 million yuan [15] - **Automobile**: On the week of November 30th, the daily average retail sales of manufacturers increased by 54,500 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 90,300 vehicles [18] - **Shipping Freight Rates**: The SCFI index decreased by 0.39%, the CCFI index decreased by 0.62%, and the BDI index increased by 6.52%. On the week of December 5th, the SCFI was 1397.63 points, the CCFI was 1114.89 points, and the BDI was 2727 points [21] 3.3 Prices: Prices of Crude Oil, Metals, Coking Coal, and Agricultural Products All Rise - **Energy**: Brent crude oil price increased by 0.87% to $63.75 per barrel. On December 5th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures (continuous contract) was $63.75 per barrel [23] - **Coking Coal**: The futures price increased by 9.49% to 1165 yuan per ton. On December 5th, the settlement price of coking coal futures (active contract) was 1165 yuan per ton [23] - **Metals**: The futures price changes of LME copper, aluminum, and zinc were +4.38%, +1.24%, and +1.56% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 2.13%. On December 5th, the closing price of LME copper futures (active contract) was $11,665 per ton, LME aluminum was $2900.5 per ton, LME zinc was $3098.5 per ton, and the domestic rebar futures settlement price was 3164 yuan per ton [24] - **Agricultural Products**: The overall price increased, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices rising by 1.81%. The price changes of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits compared with the previous week were - 0.84%, +1.22%, +2.42%, and +2.63% respectively. On December 5th, the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices was 128.78, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.68 yuan per kg, eggs were 7.44 yuan per kg, 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables were 5.93 yuan per kg, and 7 kinds of key - monitored fruits were 7.41 yuan per kg [26][27] 3.4 Logistics: Both Domestic and International Flight Volumes Decline, and the Urban Congestion Index Drops Slightly - **Subway Passenger Volume**: It decreased in both Beijing and Shanghai. On December 4th, the seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume was 9.6202 million person - times, and that of Shanghai was 10.5057 million person - times [29] - **Flight Execution Volume**: Both domestic and international flight volumes declined. On December 5th, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight execution volume was 12,359.14 flights, the seven - day moving average of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight execution volume was 364.43 flights, and the seven - day moving average of international flight execution volume was 1816.14 flights [31] - **Urban Traffic**: The peak congestion index of first - tier cities dropped slightly. On December 5th, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index of first - tier cities was 1.72 [31]

Group 1 - Domestic photovoltaic glass production decreased by 4.07% month-on-month in November, with expectations of a 4.46% increase in December due to more production days and increased output from previously ignited furnaces [2] - The demand for photovoltaic glass continues to decline, leading to heightened risks of oversupply in the market [2] Group 2 - The World Gold Council's senior market strategist Joseph Cavatoni indicates that the strategic rationale for allocating to gold remains strong, with market predictions for gold prices in 2024 expected to range between $4,000 and $5,300 [3] - OPEC+ is set to assess the global oil market, with indications of oversupply prompting member countries to likely maintain stable production levels in the first quarter of next year [3] Group 3 - Various commodities showed price fluctuations, with CMX gold rising by 1.57% to $4,258.78 and LME copper increasing by 2.31% to $11,179.00 [4] - The WTI crude oil price slightly decreased by 0.03% to $58.994, while Brent crude oil fell by 0.04% to $62.890 [4]