| 金属 | 库 | 増减 | 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 同 | 166,925 1 | +325 1 | +0.20% | | 铝 | 519,600 | 0 | 0.00% | | 蚌 | 97,700 ↑ +2,150 | 1 | +2.25% | | 臭 | 253,998 1 | +690 1 | +0.27% | | 铝 | 265,575 J | -2,875 T | -1.07% | | 锡 | 4.190 ↑ | +375 ↑ | +9.83% | | 铝合金 | 1.500 | 0 | 0.00% | | LME库存 | | --- | | 金属 | 库存 | 注册仓单 变动 | 注销仓单 | 变动 | 注销占比 | FBRK | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 테크 | 166,925 | 102,475 ↑ +0.27% | | 64,450 ↑ +0.08% | 38.61% | 38.66% | | 铝 | 519,600 | 445,925 1 -1.47% | | 73,675 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-12-08 12 月 5 日当周，焦炉产能利用率升高 0.62 pct，高炉开工率下 降 0.93 pct，螺纹钢产量减少 16.77 万吨；石油沥青开工率升高 0.1 pct，仍处于低位；化工 PX 开工率下降 0.92 pct，PTA 开工率持平； 汽车全钢胎开工率升高 0.17 pct，半钢胎开工率升高 1.73 pct。 需求：商品房成交持续增长，BDI 指数快速上行 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《货币政策重心转移————2026 年 展望系列四》 - 2025.12.03 固收周报 物价持续上行，房地产季节性改善 ——高频数据跟踪 20251207 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产端热度有所分化，螺纹钢产量、 高炉开工率下降，焦炉开工率持续回升；沥青、汽车轮胎开工率升高， PX 开工率高位回落，PTA 开工率持平。第二 ...

Group 1 - Domestic photovoltaic glass production decreased by 4.07% month-on-month in November, with expectations of a 4.46% increase in December due to more production days and increased output from previously ignited furnaces [2] - The demand for photovoltaic glass continues to decline, leading to heightened risks of oversupply in the market [2] Group 2 - The World Gold Council's senior market strategist Joseph Cavatoni indicates that the strategic rationale for allocating to gold remains strong, with market predictions for gold prices in 2024 expected to range between $4,000 and $5,300 [3] - OPEC+ is set to assess the global oil market, with indications of oversupply prompting member countries to likely maintain stable production levels in the first quarter of next year [3] Group 3 - Various commodities showed price fluctuations, with CMX gold rising by 1.57% to $4,258.78 and LME copper increasing by 2.31% to $11,179.00 [4] - The WTI crude oil price slightly decreased by 0.03% to $58.994, while Brent crude oil fell by 0.04% to $62.890 [4]

Group 1 - LME copper prices continued to decline, with three-month copper down 0.50% to $10,725 per ton, and Shanghai copper down 790 yuan or 0.88% to 85,650 yuan per ton [1] - The strong US dollar, benefiting from reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, has made dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for investors using other currencies [1] - Analysts noted that the labor market signals are becoming increasingly sensitive as investors reassess the Federal Reserve's recent path due to the delayed September employment data [1] Group 2 - Nickel prices also showed weakness, with three-month nickel down 0.58% to $14,565 per ton, testing the lowest levels since April [1] - LME nickel inventories rose to 252,090 tons, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [3] - Other metals such as aluminum, zinc, lead, and tin also experienced price declines, with three-month aluminum down 0.68% to $2,794.50 per ton [3] Group 3 - The battery raw material nickel sulfate is showing signs of weakness as of November [2] - The price of ferrosilicon is currently slightly above 900 yuan per nickel point, down from over 950 yuan per nickel point in mid-October [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: November 17, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall production heat has declined, with decreases in the capacity utilization rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, asphalt, PTA, and all-steel tires, as well as a reduction in rebar production. PX and semi-steel tire capacity utilization rates remained relatively stable [2][31]. - The demand side shows a decline in commercial housing transaction area, an increase in the inventory-to-sales ratio, a decrease in land supply area, and a decline in the residential land transaction premium rate. Movie box office, automobile retail, and wholesale volumes have also decreased. However, the BDI index has risen slightly [2][3]. - Prices have improved marginally compared to the previous week. Crude oil and copper prices have rebounded, while coking coal prices have dropped significantly. Agricultural product prices continue their seasonal upward trend [2][4]. - In terms of shipping prices, the SCFI has declined for two consecutive weeks, while the BDI has increased slightly. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment fronts and the recovery of the real estate market [2][31]. Section Summaries Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization decreased by 0.74 pct, blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.32 pct, and rebar production decreased by 8.54 tons [2][10]. - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate decreased by 0.7 pct [2][10]. - Chemicals: The PX operating rate remained flat, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.77 pct [2][10]. - Automobile Tires: The all-steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.96 pct, and the semi-steel tire operating rate increased by 0.01 pct [2][11]. Demand - Real Estate: Commercial housing transaction area decreased, inventory-to-sales ratio increased, land supply area decreased, and residential land transaction premium rate declined [3][14]. - Movie Box Office: Decreased by 3 million yuan compared to the previous week [3][14]. - Automobile: Daily retail sales decreased by 109,000 vehicles, and daily wholesale sales decreased by 158,000 vehicles [3][16]. - Shipping Freight: The SCFI index decreased by 2.92%, the CCFI index increased by 3.39%, and the BDI index increased by 1% [3][19]. Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price increased by 1.19% to $64.39 per barrel, while coking coal futures price decreased by 6.06% to 1,201 yuan per ton [4][21]. - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.41%, -0.12%, and -1.70% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.36% [4][22]. - Agricultural Products: The overall price continued to rise, with the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index increasing by 0.20%. Pork, egg, vegetable, and fruit prices changed by -0.93%, +2.31%, -1.04%, and +0.85% respectively compared to the previous week [4][24]. Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: Beijing's subway passenger volume decreased slightly, while Shanghai's increased slightly [27]. - Flight Operations: Domestic flight operations increased, while international flight operations continued to decrease [29]. - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities declined at an accelerating rate [29]. Summary - The production heat continued to decline, with decreases in the operating rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, asphalt, PTA, and all-steel tires, as well as a reduction in rebar production. PX and semi-steel tire operating rates remained relatively stable [31]. - The commercial housing transaction area declined, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. Land supply area decreased marginally, with a expected peak in land supply at the end of the month [31]. - Prices improved marginally compared to the previous week, with crude oil and copper prices rebounding, coking coal prices dropping significantly, and agricultural product prices continuing their seasonal upward trend [31]. - Shipping prices saw the SCFI decline for two consecutive weeks and the BDI increase slightly. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment fronts and the recovery of the real estate market [31].

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the changes in LME (London Metal Exchange) inventory levels for various metals, highlighting both increases and decreases in stock levels across different locations. Group 1: Copper Inventory - The total LME copper inventory stands at 136,250 tons, reflecting a decrease of 25 tons or 0.02% from the previous day [1] - Registered warehouse receipts for copper increased by 1.20%, with a total of 12,6050 tons registered [2] - The cancellation rate for copper warehouse receipts is 7.49%, down from 8.60% [2] Group 2: Aluminum Inventory - LME aluminum inventory is reported at 545,225 tons, with no change from the previous day [1] - The registered warehouse receipts for aluminum decreased by 5.31%, totaling 509,550 tons [2] - The cancellation rate for aluminum warehouse receipts is 6.54%, slightly down from 6.88% [2] Group 3: Zinc Inventory - Zinc inventory at LME is recorded at 35,300 tons, showing an increase of 400 tons or 1.15% [1] - Registered warehouse receipts for zinc increased by 2.06%, totaling 31,000 tons [2] - The cancellation rate for zinc warehouse receipts is 12.18%, down from 12.97% [2] Group 4: Tin Inventory - LME tin inventory is at 3,015 tons, with a decrease of 20 tons or 0.66% [1] - Registered warehouse receipts for tin are at 2,875 tons, with a cancellation rate of 4.64% [2] Group 5: Nickel Inventory - Nickel inventory is reported at 253,308 tons, reflecting a decrease of 96 tons or 0.04% [1] - Registered warehouse receipts for nickel are at 238,338 tons, with a cancellation rate of 5.91% [2] Group 6: General Observations - The overall trends indicate fluctuations in inventory levels across various metals, with some experiencing increases while others show declines [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent trends in various commodities, including precious metals, energy, and agricultural products, along with the impact of external factors such as Federal Reserve policies and international oil procurement strategies [3][4][5]. Group 2 - As of November 10, 2025, domestic soda ash manufacturers have a total inventory of 1.7062 million tons, a decrease of 0.008 million tons or 0.47% from the previous week. The inventory includes 0.7977 million tons of light soda ash, which decreased by 0.0169 million tons, and 0.9085 million tons of heavy soda ash, which increased by 0.0089 million tons [2]. - Federal Reserve's Williams indicated that the Fed may soon need to expand its balance sheet through asset purchases, assessing when reserve levels will transition from "slightly above adequate" to "adequate" [3]. - Indian state-owned oil companies have purchased 5 million barrels of crude oil from the spot market, seeking alternatives to Russian oil supplies, with Hindustan Petroleum Corporation buying 2 million barrels of WTI and 2 million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban crude, expected to arrive in January [3]. Group 3 - Precious metals saw price increases, with CMX gold rising from 4006.100 to 4122.640, a change of 2.91%, and CMX silver increasing from 48.295 to 50.431, a rise of 4.42% [4]. - In the energy sector, WTI crude oil prices slightly increased from 59.869 to 59.880, while Brent crude rose from 63.766 to 63.980, reflecting changes of 0.02% and 0.34% respectively [4]. - Agricultural products also experienced price changes, with soybeans rising from 1117.350 to 1127.950 (0.95%), and wheat increasing from 561.400 to 569.625 (1.47%) [4].

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of the A-share market as of November 7, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.5x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 80th and 41st historical percentiles respectively [2][3] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.9x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 64th and 39th historical percentiles [2][3] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 41.3x and a PB of 5.2x, at the 58th and 60th historical percentiles [2][3] - The valuation of the semiconductor industry is notably high, with a PE of 99.7x, placing it at the 76th historical percentile [7] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemicals, and IT Services [2][3] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2][3] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile include Medical Services and White Goods [2][3] Sector Performance Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain saw a price decline, with polysilicon futures down 6.2% and silicon wafer prices down 3.9% [3] - Battery material prices showed mixed trends, with cobalt down 3.2% and lithium hexafluorophosphate up 8.1% [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar fell by 1.7%, while iron ore prices decreased by 3.4% [3] - Cement prices increased slightly by 0.1%, but demand remains weak [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs dropped by 4.6%, while wholesale pork prices rose by 2.4% [3] - The price index for liquor saw a slight decrease of 0.15% [3] Technology Sector - The semiconductor sales in China grew by 15.0% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating a positive trend in the sector [3] Commodity Sector - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.1% to $63.7 per barrel, while coal prices increased due to stricter safety inspections and winter storage demand [3]

Group 1 - The article provides an overview of the changes in LME (London Metal Exchange) warehouse inventories for various metals, highlighting fluctuations in stock levels and the registration and cancellation of warehouse receipts [1][3][5][7][9][11][13] - Copper inventory increased by 75 tons to 133,975 tons, with a registration warehouse receipt of 10650 tons, representing a cancellation ratio of 7.95% [1][3] - Aluminum inventory decreased by 2,125 tons to 550,450 tons, with a registration warehouse receipt of 43,500 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 7.90% [1][5] - Zinc inventory rose by 175 tons to 34,000 tons, with a registration warehouse receipt of 4,300 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 12.65% [1][9] - Nickel inventory increased by 378 tons to 253,128 tons, with a registration warehouse receipt of 6,540 tons, showing a cancellation ratio of 2.58% [1][13] Group 2 - The article details specific warehouse inventory changes across various locations, including Rotterdam, Singapore, and Hamburg, indicating the dynamics of metal stock levels [3][5][9][11][13] - In Rotterdam, copper inventory decreased by 125 tons to 13,925 tons, while aluminum remained stable at 3,575 tons [3][5] - Singapore's zinc inventory decreased by 25 tons to 30,175 tons, while nickel inventory increased by 402 tons to 71,460 tons [9][13] - The cancellation ratios for various metals indicate the proportion of warehouse receipts that have been canceled, reflecting market conditions and demand [1][3][5][9][11][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data shows that the production side is stable with a slight increase, the coke oven and PX operating rates decline, the tire operating rate rebounds significantly, and the asphalt operating rate is at a high level [1][31]. - The transaction volume of commercial housing and land supply area are generally at a low level, and seasonal improvement may occur in the near future [1][31]. - After the holiday, the number of executed flights decreases, while the subway passenger volume and congestion index in cities increase [1][31]. - The price trend is differentiated. Crude oil and rebar prices decline, while coking coal, copper, and aluminum prices rise. The overall price of agricultural products increases, but the prices of pork and eggs drop significantly [1][31]. - In the short term, focus on the incremental policies of the Fourth Plenary Session and the 14th Five - Year Plan, Sino - US trade policies, and the recovery of the real estate market [1][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Production: Rebar Production Continues to Decline, Tire Operating Rate Rebounds Significantly - Steel: The coke oven capacity utilization rate decreases by 0.96 pct, the blast furnace operating rate remains flat, and the rebar production decreases by 2.24 tons. The inventory of rebar also decreases by 7.7 tons [10]. - Petroleum asphalt: The operating rate increases by 1.3 pct and is at a relatively high level in recent years [10]. - Chemical industry: The PX operating rate decreases by 1.9 pct, while the PTA operating rate increases by 1.57 pct [10]. - Automobile tires: The operating rate rebounds significantly after the holiday. The all - steel tire operating rate increases by 20.56 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increases by 26.21 pct [11]. 2. Demand: Commercial Housing Transactions Increase Slightly at a Low Level, SCFI Rebounds Significantly - Real estate: The transaction area of commercial housing rebounds slightly at a low level, the inventory - to - sales ratio increases, the land supply area decreases, and the transaction premium rate of residential land decreases [14]. - Movie box office: In the week of October 5, it increases by 1.087 billion yuan compared with the previous week [14]. - Automobile: In the week of October 12, the daily average retail sales of manufacturers increase by 41,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increase by 46,000 vehicles [16]. - Shipping index: In the week of October 17, SCFI rebounds by 12.92%, CCFI decreases by 4.11%, and BDI increases by 6.87% [19]. 3. Prices: Crude Oil and Rebar Prices Decline, Coking Coal, Copper, and Aluminum Prices Rise - Energy: The Brent crude oil price drops by 2.3% to $61.29 per barrel [21]. - Coking coal: The futures price rises by 1.67% to 1,184.5 yuan per ton [21]. - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices change by +2.25%, +1.18%, and - 1.41% respectively compared with the previous week, and the domestic rebar futures price decreases by 1.96% [22]. - Agricultural products: The overall price increases, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products rising by 1.13%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits change by - 3.94%, - 4.45%, +2.42%, and +0.28% respectively compared with the previous week [24]. 4. Logistics: After the Holiday, Subway Passenger Volume and Urban Congestion Index Rebound Significantly, and the Number of Executed Flights Decreases Significantly - Subway passenger volume: In Beijing and Shanghai, it rebounds significantly after the holiday. The seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increases by about 3.28 million person - times, and that of Shanghai increases by about 3.04 million person - times [27]. - Executed flights: After the holiday, the number of domestic and international executed flights decreases significantly. The seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) executed flights decreases by 10.22%, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) decreases by 5.8%, and that of international flights decreases by 4.44% [29]. - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index of first - tier cities rebounds significantly after the holiday, with the seven - day moving average increasing by 34.16% [29]. 5. Summary: Asphalt Operating Rate is at a High Level, Crude Oil and Pork Prices are Low The high - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production, demand, logistics, and prices. The production side is stable with a slight increase; the demand side is at a low level with potential seasonal improvement; the logistics situation shows a post - holiday adjustment; and the price trend is differentiated. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and the real estate market recovery [31].