研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周三两市低开后强势震荡，银行板块继续走强。两市成交额 1.66 万亿元，整理缩 | | | | | 量，卖压下降。沪深 300 指数收 4592 点，跌 15 点，跌幅-0.33%；上证 50 指数收 | | | | 3010 | 点，涨 2 点，涨幅 0.09%；中证 500 指数收 7128 点，跌 57 点，跌幅-0.80%； | | | | 中证 | 1000 指数收 7312 点，跌 31 点，跌幅-0.43%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的 | | | | | 是油气资源 ETF、银行 ETF 基金、龙头家电 ETF、教育 ETF、房地产 ETF 基金，跌幅 | | | | | 居前的是黄金股 ETF、电网设备 ETF、光伏龙头 ETF。两市板块指数中涨幅居前的是 | | | | | 油服工程、地热能、风电设备、页岩气、家电零部件指数，跌幅居前的是贵金属、 | | ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1、高盛预计，未来中国股票将出现更持续的上涨趋势，预测 MSCI 中国指数到 2027 | | | | | 年底将再上涨约 30%，主要由 12%的趋势性盈利增长和 5%至 10%的进一步重估潜力 | | | | | 所推动。 | | | | | 2、德银认为，中国正通过聚焦 STEM（科学、技术、工程和数学）教育和人才培养， | | | | | 在产业创新领域取得领先地位。招生趋势明显向工学、信息科学和物理学等 STEM | | | | | 专业倾斜，而法学、经济学和管理学等专业的招生人数则在减少。 | | | | | 3、Meta 联手私募巨头 Blue Owl 通过发行私募债券筹资 270 亿美元建设数据中心， | | | | | 创下私募债发行纪录。贝莱德认购超 30 亿美元，成第二大投资者；债券 ...

Group 1 - Global hedge funds are buying Chinese stocks at the fastest pace since the end of June, according to Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage data [1] - The stock purchases are primarily driven by long positions, with short covering as a secondary factor, at a ratio of approximately 9:1 [2] - China has seen the highest net buying in Prime business since August [2] Group 2 - There has been significant capital inflow into overseas-listed Chinese asset ETFs, including KWEB, MCHI, and FXI over the past month [3] - KWEB is an ETF focused on Chinese internet companies, while MCHI tracks the MSCI China Index, investing in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks across various sectors [4][5] - FXI is an ETF that tracks the FTSE China 50 Index, covering the largest and most liquid 50 stocks listed in Hong Kong [6] Group 3 - As of August 15, the top ten holdings in FXI include major companies such as Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi [7] - Global actively managed public funds had a 6.4% allocation to Chinese stocks as of the end of July, which is below the historical average of 13% over the past decade [7] - Despite increased interest from overseas investors, the current allocation level remains conservative, indicating a potential for market upward momentum [7] Group 4 - Recent domestic policies in China are seen as favorable for stock market performance, attracting more long-term foreign capital [7] - Analysts highlight that the valuation of major Chinese assets is relatively low compared to historical levels, making A-share blue chips more attractive than high P/E ratios of large U.S. tech companies [7] - The outlook for Chinese securities is positive due to potential foreign capital inflows and stabilizing international geopolitical risks [7]

Group 1 - A German pension fund, KZVK, has entrusted $50 million to Franklin Templeton's Hong Kong subsidiary for investments in Chinese stocks, covering Hong Kong, mainland China, and US-listed Chinese companies [1] - KZVK manages assets worth €34.1 billion and serves over 240,000 pension beneficiaries [1] - Franklin Templeton's Hong Kong branch was established in 2012 and holds multiple licenses from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission [1] Group 2 - Some European institutional investors are preparing to issue tenders for investment mandates, indicating a potential increase in interest in Chinese markets [2][3] - The overall activity of large overseas institutional investors in China has been limited, with many focusing on contract renewals rather than new allocations [3] - There is a growing interest among UK, Spanish, and Italian institutions in diversifying their portfolios to include non-US assets [3] Group 3 - Wellington Management, a major US asset manager, suggests that China should be included in future investment strategies as the dominance of US markets shows signs of peaking [6] - The firm notes that global investors' allocation to Chinese stocks is down 53% from its peak in 2020, highlighting an opportunity for reallocation [6] - Wellington provides ten reasons for considering Chinese stocks, including attractive valuations, improving fundamentals, and supportive government policies for the private sector [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to significant progress, with both sides agreeing to substantially reduce bilateral tariffs, positively impacting market sentiment and Chinese stocks [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Hang Seng Index surged on May 12, with technology and consumer stocks leading the gains, reflecting a rapid increase in market sentiment following the trade talks [1]. - Nomura became the first major Wall Street firm to upgrade its rating on Chinese stocks to "tactical overweight" after the trade talks, indicating a major positive for the Chinese stock market [4][5]. - Analysts are increasingly optimistic that the trade talks will facilitate more capital inflow into the Chinese stock market, with Citigroup's Pierre Lau projecting the Hang Seng Index to reach 25,000 points by year-end and 26,000 points in the first half of 2026 [1][4]. Group 2: Tariff Reductions - The joint statement from the US and China indicated that the US would cancel 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modify 34% of reciprocal tariffs, while China would suspend or cancel corresponding tariffs on US goods [4][5]. - The temporary reduction in tariffs is expected to provide short-term support to market sentiment, with analysts noting that the agreement exceeded market expectations [5]. Group 3: Investment Trends - There has been a notable increase in bullish bets on Chinese stocks by hedge funds, particularly US-based funds, in anticipation of positive outcomes from the trade negotiations [7]. - The MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index saw increases of 2.4% and 1.9%, respectively, in the week leading up to the trade talks, indicating a positive market response [7]. - Goldman Sachs maintained an "overweight" rating on Chinese stocks, raising its earnings forecasts and target levels for major indices, reflecting confidence in the resilience of the Chinese market [10].