2025 年 08 月 17 日 继续通过中盘股指数参与流动性行情 分析师：吕思江 S1050522030001 lvsj@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：马晨 S1050522050001 machen@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 3、《全天候连续六周新高， 固收+港股 ETF 组合上线》 2025-08-04 投资要点 ▌本周建议一览 核心观点： 综合外盘和国内市场情绪，我们认为自四月开始的风险偏 好改善和流动性提升，会推动指数高位震荡至九月，并有 望在八月下旬见到多资产波动率的提升。 我们希望在主要持仓上回归资产基本面，适当参与流动性 溢价，同时避免成为其他投资者的溢价来源。在全球复苏 Goldilocks 和再通胀逻辑未证伪前，利用波动增加成长股 暴露。大类资产配置上继续保持一定的"反脆弱"资产， 对冲美元可能走强带来的 Risk Off。本轮行情轮动速度 快，大盘股指数基本修复至前高，流动性外溢下我们更多 看好相应的中小盘股指数机会，包括恒生中型股 LOF、科 创 200ETF、创业板 200ETF、中证 1000 和 2000 增强 ETF 等标的。 美股：较低仓位，如果有快速调整建议增配 ...

Group 1: TransMedics Group - TransMedics Group reported Q1 2025 sales of over $143 million, exceeding analyst expectations by approximately 16% [2] - The company achieved adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.70, more than double the expected amount [3] - TransMedics increased its full-year revenue guidance by $34 million, now forecasting $575 million, which implies a growth of 30% compared to 2024 [4] Group 2: Everus - Everus reported Q1 sales of nearly $827 million, beating forecasts by over $150 million, resulting in a sales beat of over 22% [6] - The company's non-adjusted EPS rose by 31% to $0.72, contrary to analyst expectations of a decline [6] - Everus's order backlog increased by 41% to $3.1 billion, providing a solid revenue floor for future growth [8] Group 3: Excelerate Energy - Excelerate Energy's Q1 sales reached $315 million, surpassing estimates by over 51% [11] - Revenues grew by over 57%, significantly higher than the expected growth of just 4% [11] - The company is positioned to benefit from rising global demand for LNG, with Jefferies initiating coverage with a $39 price target [11]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced significant shocks and recovery in April, with a phase of pessimistic pricing regarding tariffs easing, leading to a focus on policy expectations and performance [1] - Growth stocks significantly lagged behind consumer and cyclical stocks, primarily due to the impact of tariffs and seasonal valuation adjustments during earnings season [1] - Looking ahead to May, there is a favorable environment for style rotation and calendar effects, suggesting a shift towards technology and industry as core considerations, while also considering mid-cap stocks with decent performance [1] Group 2 - The first phase of the US-China trade agreement may be reached in early May, which could exert pressure on China's foreign trade under the current tariff levels [2] - In terms of industry allocation, after the easing of tariff shocks, there may still be disturbances, with domestic policies expected to support a temporary increase in risk appetite [2] - The technology sector has seen a significant adjustment since late February, and despite external shocks, domestic technological independence and industry development remain strong trends [2] Group 3 - The pharmaceutical industry is currently at relatively low valuation levels, with significant changes in the environment for innovative drug procurement policies, potentially opening up valuation ceilings [2] - The geopolitical uncertainties and potential risks to global economic stability from the "America First" policy have increased the allocation value of defensive assets such as gold and military defense [3] - Continuous attention is recommended for the allocation opportunities in defense, food security, and gold assets during sensitive periods of global economic monetary policy [3]