金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【点评报告】 金融工程 10 月主动选股 组合回顾 9 月选股组合个股平均涨跌幅为 5.24%，胜率为 57.9%。组合的月度收益为 4.97%，相对万得全 A 跑赢 2.17%，本年度至今绝对回报 50.35%，相对万得全 A 跑赢 23.93%。 本月回顾 从通胀数据来看，PPI 同比降幅明显收窄，CPI 同比回落幅度较大。从金融数 据来看，M1 同比增长 6%，较上月抬升 0.4%。9 月制造业 PMI 指数为 49.8%， 好于前值 49.4%。汇率方面，近期人民币对美元升值。基于上述的宏观数据， 我们判断，小市值因子表现或走弱，10 月份中盘股和大盘股表现或好于小盘 股。 本月电新、有色和电子表现较好，国防军工、银行和综合金融表现较差。以中 证 500 代表的中盘股表现好于以中证 1000 和中证 2000 为代表的小盘股。从 风险因子的角度来看，beta 因子、市值因子、成长因子和波动率因子表现较为 突出，表明市场对高弹性，偏成长类的龙头股较为青睐。 10 月观点 10 月市值风格层面看好中盘，成长价值层面看好成长风格。 M1 的抬升表明流动性依然处于上行，PPI ...

- The report suggests maintaining a certain level of "anti-fragile" assets to hedge against potential strengthening of the dollar, while also taking advantage of the liquidity premium in mid-cap stock indices such as the Hang Seng MidCap LOF, STAR 200 ETF, ChiNext 200 ETF, CSI 1000, and 2000 Enhanced ETFs[1][6][9] - The ETF combination strategy - equity-biased - XinXuan technical quantification has achieved an absolute return of 42.75% from the beginning of 2024 to the present, with an excess return of 18.65% relative to the CSI 300 and 13.08% relative to the ETF equal weight[10][60] - The ETF combination strategy - debt-biased - Quantitative All-Weather has a single-week increase of 0.28%, cumulative return of 8.91%, and a maximum drawdown of 3.26%[10][60] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a high position in Japanese stocks following the removal of trade barriers due to the Japan-US tariff agreement, and the relative peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which benefits Japan as an oil-importing country[3][42] - The report also mentions the potential for a rapid adjustment in the US market, suggesting an increase in allocation if such an adjustment occurs, given the relatively strong economic data in the US compared to other major regions[2][41] - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market sentiment has improved, with significant net buying from southbound funds, and highlights the independent capital logic of Hong Kong stocks, favoring non-bank financials, automobiles, and innovative drugs[6][48][49] - The report suggests that the liquidity-driven market favors sectors such as non-ferrous metals, engineering machinery, non-bank financials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery[7][57] - The report notes that the gold market is expected to continue benefiting from the ongoing rate cut expectations before the September FOMC meeting, with the Chinese central bank continuing to increase its gold reserves, reinforcing the long-term value of gold as a hedge against uncertainty[7][58][59]

Group 1: TransMedics Group - TransMedics Group reported Q1 2025 sales of over $143 million, exceeding analyst expectations by approximately 16% [2] - The company achieved adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.70, more than double the expected amount [3] - TransMedics increased its full-year revenue guidance by $34 million, now forecasting $575 million, which implies a growth of 30% compared to 2024 [4] Group 2: Everus - Everus reported Q1 sales of nearly $827 million, beating forecasts by over $150 million, resulting in a sales beat of over 22% [6] - The company's non-adjusted EPS rose by 31% to $0.72, contrary to analyst expectations of a decline [6] - Everus's order backlog increased by 41% to $3.1 billion, providing a solid revenue floor for future growth [8] Group 3: Excelerate Energy - Excelerate Energy's Q1 sales reached $315 million, surpassing estimates by over 51% [11] - Revenues grew by over 57%, significantly higher than the expected growth of just 4% [11] - The company is positioned to benefit from rising global demand for LNG, with Jefferies initiating coverage with a $39 price target [11]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced significant shocks and recovery in April, with a phase of pessimistic pricing regarding tariffs easing, leading to a focus on policy expectations and performance [1] - Growth stocks significantly lagged behind consumer and cyclical stocks, primarily due to the impact of tariffs and seasonal valuation adjustments during earnings season [1] - Looking ahead to May, there is a favorable environment for style rotation and calendar effects, suggesting a shift towards technology and industry as core considerations, while also considering mid-cap stocks with decent performance [1] Group 2 - The first phase of the US-China trade agreement may be reached in early May, which could exert pressure on China's foreign trade under the current tariff levels [2] - In terms of industry allocation, after the easing of tariff shocks, there may still be disturbances, with domestic policies expected to support a temporary increase in risk appetite [2] - The technology sector has seen a significant adjustment since late February, and despite external shocks, domestic technological independence and industry development remain strong trends [2] Group 3 - The pharmaceutical industry is currently at relatively low valuation levels, with significant changes in the environment for innovative drug procurement policies, potentially opening up valuation ceilings [2] - The geopolitical uncertainties and potential risks to global economic stability from the "America First" policy have increased the allocation value of defensive assets such as gold and military defense [3] - Continuous attention is recommended for the allocation opportunities in defense, food security, and gold assets during sensitive periods of global economic monetary policy [3]