本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 2025年，私募证券产品掀起备案热潮。私募排排网数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，全年共计备案私募证券产品12645只（包含自主发行和担任 投顾的产品），较2024年的6337只环比增幅99.54%。 股票策略依然是私募机构的首选方向。 2025年备案股票策略私募产品8328只，占全部备案产品的65.86%，占据绝对主导地位。这一数据反映出 在A股市场长期发展机遇下，投资者对股票资产的配置热情持续高涨，股票策略的收益潜力和市场容量仍具备较强吸引力。 除股票策略外， 多资产策略、期货及衍生品策略分别以1806只和1274只的备案数量位列第二和第三位 ，占比分别为14.28%和10.08%。多资产 策略的快速发展体现了投资者对风险分散的重视，通过跨资产配置降低单一市场波动带来的影响；期货及衍生品策略的稳步增长则得益于衍生品 市场的不断完善，为投资者提供了多元化资产配置需求。 债券策略和组合基金的备案数量分别为492只和512只，占比分别为3.89%和4.05%，虽占比较小，但形成了与主流策略互补的多元化格局，满足 了不同风险偏好投资者的需求。 2 ...

固 定 收 益 华福证券 2025 年 12 月 31 日 迷雾中酝酿曙光——1 月债券策略 团队成员 投资要点： 12 月债券市场受机构行为等因素影响仍然维持震荡格局。尽管资金面 进一步转松，但长端利率受限于对跨年后潜在利空的担忧，迟迟难以回落。 这些潜在的风险因素包括 Q1 政府债发行、信贷冲量对银行信贷的冲击、 公募新规的落地以及 A 股与商品价格的持续上行。尽管这些因素确实存在 不确定性，但目前来看，市场担忧的极端情形也未必会发生。 固 定 收 益 专 题 由于近年来政府债供给期限的不断拉长，明年超长债的供需矛盾可能 是当前市场担忧最大的潜在利空。尽管中央经济工作会议在财政方面并未 显示进一步大幅扩张的态度，2026 年赤字率可能维持在 4%，政府债供给 规模相较于 2025 可能仅会出现小幅扩张，但由于保费收入增速放缓、部分 大行银行账簿利率风险指标已接近监管阙值，央行购债或仍聚焦中短久期， 市场对 1 月地方债大规模发行后机构的承接能力仍然存在怀疑。 目前合计有 20 个地区公布了 Q1 计划，规模达到 16877 亿元，而它们 2025Q1 的实际发行规模 16672 亿元。如果比较其中 12 ...

Fred Piard, PhD. is a quantitative analyst and IT professional with over 30 years of experience working in technology. He is the author of three books and has been investing in data-driven systematic strategies since 2010. Fred runs the investing group Quantitative Risk & Value where he shares a portfolio invested in quality dividend stocks, and companies at the forefront of tech innovation. Fred also supplies market risk indicators, a real estate strategy, a bond strategy, and an income strategy in closed- ...

Core Insights - The private equity fund distribution scale has significantly increased this year, with a total distribution amount exceeding 15.158 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 263.76% compared to 4.167 billion yuan last year [1][2] Distribution Overview - As of October 31, 2025, out of 5,558 private equity products with performance displays, 1,135 products have implemented distributions, accounting for 20.42% of the total [1] - The total number of distributions reached 1,443 times, with the distribution amount surpassing 15.158 billion yuan [1][2] Strategy Analysis - Stock strategy products are the main contributors to distributions, with 848 distributions totaling 11.586 billion yuan, representing 76.43% of the total distribution amount [2][3] - Multi-asset strategies had 209 distributions amounting to 1.376 billion yuan, accounting for 9.08% [2][3] - Futures and derivatives strategies and bond strategies had similar distribution amounts of approximately 936 million yuan and 937 million yuan, each accounting for 6.18% [2][3] - Combination funds had a smaller distribution scale, with 65 distributions totaling 323 million yuan, representing 2.13% [2][3] Performance Drivers - The significant increase in distribution scale is attributed to three main factors: strong overall performance of private equity funds, with an average return of 24% this year, and over 90% of products achieving positive returns [2][4] - Stock strategies performed particularly well, with average returns close to 30%, providing a solid foundation for distributions [2][4] - Distributions help investors convert paper profits into actual gains, enhancing confidence in holding and trust in fund managers [2][4] Management Approach - Subjective private equity funds have shown a higher distribution frequency, with 943 distributions totaling 10.042 billion yuan, accounting for 66.25% of the total [3][4] - Quantitative private equity funds, despite strong performance, had a distribution amount of only 5.116 billion yuan, representing 33.75% [3][4] - The distribution strategy differs, with subjective funds focusing on long-term value investment and quantitative funds being more conservative in distribution frequency and amount [4] Scale Impact - Private equity funds with over 10 billion yuan in assets have a dominant position in distributions, with 152 distributions totaling 5.479 billion yuan, accounting for 36.14% of the total distribution amount [4]

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown a slow upward trend this year, with 91.33% of private equity funds achieving positive returns and an average return rate of 24.32% as of the end of October [1] - Stock strategies lead the performance among five major strategies with an average return of 29.52%, and 92.73% of products reporting positive returns [1] - Multi-asset strategies have an average return of 19.71% and a positive return rate of 91.61%, effectively capturing market gains while diversifying risks [1] Group 1: Private Equity Fund Performance - As of October, 10,969 private equity funds were tracked, with 91.33% achieving positive returns and an average return rate of 24.32% [1] - The top 5% of funds achieved a remarkable return of 72.03%, indicating a strong performance in high-yield products [1] - Stock strategies outperformed with an average return of 29.52%, and 92.73% of products in this category reported positive returns [1] Group 2: Strategy Analysis - Multi-asset strategies ranked second with an average return of 19.71% and a positive return rate of 91.61%, benefiting from timely stock asset allocation [1] - Bond strategies showed a conservative approach with an average return of 8.77%, but 90.09% of products achieved positive returns, highlighting their risk defense capability [2] - Quantitative long strategies excelled with an average return of 36.76% and a positive return rate of 96.52%, outperforming subjective long strategies by 7.04 percentage points [2]

Core Viewpoint - The private equity fund distribution scale has significantly increased in 2025, with a total distribution amount exceeding 15.158 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 263.76% compared to 4.167 billion yuan in the same period last year [2][3]. Group 1: Distribution Performance - A total of 1,135 private equity products have distributed dividends this year, accounting for 20.42% of the 5,558 products with performance displays [2]. - The average return of private equity funds this year has reached 24%, with over 90% of products achieving positive returns, particularly stock strategies with an average return close to 30% [3]. - Stock strategy products have become the main force in dividend distribution, with 848 distributions totaling 11.586 billion yuan, representing 76.43% of the total distribution amount [4][10]. Group 2: Distribution by Strategy - Multi-asset strategies have distributed dividends 209 times, amounting to 1.376 billion yuan, accounting for 9.08% of the total [6]. - Futures and derivatives strategies and bond strategies have similar distribution amounts, approximately 936 million yuan and 937 million yuan respectively, each accounting for about 6.18% [6]. - Combination funds have a relatively small distribution scale, with 65 distributions totaling 323 million yuan, representing 2.13% [6][10]. Group 3: Management Mode - Subjective private equity funds have shown more active distribution, with 943 distributions totaling 10.042 billion yuan, accounting for 66.25% of the total, while quantitative private equity funds have distributed only 5.116 billion yuan, representing 33.75% [7][8]. - Subjective private equity focuses on long-term value investment and tends to distribute dividends after achieving expected profits, while quantitative private equity is more conservative in distribution decisions [7][8]. Group 4: Distribution by Fund Size - Private equity funds with a scale of over 10 billion yuan have dominated the distribution amount, with 152 distributions totaling 5.479 billion yuan, accounting for 36.14% [9]. - Smaller private equity funds (0-5 billion yuan) have the highest number of distributions at 713 times, but their total distribution amount is only 2.86 billion yuan, accounting for 18.87% [9]. - The 50-100 billion yuan scale private equity funds have shown fewer distributions with a total of 49 times and 1.122 billion yuan, representing 7.40% [9].

Group 1 - The number of private equity firms with over 10 billion yuan in assets has surpassed 100, reaching 101 as of October 22, 2025, an increase of 5 from 96 at the end of September [1] - Among the 101 firms, quantitative private equity firms are the most numerous, with 47 firms accounting for 46.53%, followed by subjective private equity firms with 44 firms at 43.56%, and mixed strategy firms with 8 firms at 7.92% [1] - The new entrants in October include 2 subjective and 2 quantitative strategy firms, along with 1 mixed strategy firm [1] Group 2 - Stock strategies dominate the core strategies of the private equity firms, with 77 firms employing this strategy, representing 76.24% of the total [2] - Multi-asset strategies account for 12.87% with 13 firms, while bond strategies make up 5.94% with 6 firms [2] - The increase in the number of billion-yuan private equity firms is attributed to the stabilization of the A-share market, leading to improved performance and scale of private equity products [2] Group 3 - The expansion of private equity firms is primarily driven by subjective private equity firms due to their flexibility in adapting to market changes and macroeconomic conditions [3] - Some subjective private equity managers possess extensive investment experience and strong stock-picking abilities, which attract continuous capital inflow [3] - Market conditions are currently characterized by structural valuation concerns, with a focus on sectors like AI applications and cyclical industries nearing capacity clearance [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market, focusing on fixed income strategies and interest rate predictions for the fourth quarter of 2025. [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Predictions**: The current interest rate model has shifted to a bullish stance since October 10, with a historical success rate of approximately 85%. The bond market is expected to experience limited downward movement in interest rates, with the 10-year government bond rate fluctuating around 1.75% and unlikely to drop below 1.7% without external shocks. [2][3] 2. **Market Conditions**: The bond market is influenced by two main factors: the lack of expectations for domestic monetary policy easing and the realization of economic growth targets for the year. This results in limited downward pressure on interest rates in the short term. [3] 3. **Strategy Recommendations**: Traditional duration strategies are not recommended due to limited space for significant downward movement. Instead, investors should focus on non-directional strategies that capitalize on high spread compression opportunities, particularly in slightly longer durations and higher interest rate positions. [4] 4. **Credit Spread Evaluation**: The comparison between 5-year subordinated capital bonds and 5-year government bonds shows a spread of approximately 40 basis points, indicating that subordinated capital bonds have better holding value despite lower liquidity. [5] 5. **Investment Opportunities in Credit Bonds**: There is potential for further compression in credit spreads for certain long-term credit bonds. The analysis of credit spreads across different maturities suggests that mid to long-term credit bonds still have room for compression. [6][7] 6. **Impact of Redemption Fee Regulations**: The new redemption fee regulations may lead to increased fund redemption, widening spreads. However, the market has partially absorbed the impact, and high credit quality bonds may still attract investment despite potential short-term volatility. [8][9] 7. **Local vs. National Bonds**: The overall spread between local and national bonds is high, with specific maturities showing significant differences. New local bonds have a higher implied VAT rate, making them worthy of attention, particularly the 30-year local bonds which still hold investment value relative to national bonds. [10] 8. **Portfolio Construction**: It is recommended to construct portfolios based on the value proposition of different bond types, with government bonds in the 6-7 year range and credit bonds in the 4-6 year range being particularly attractive. The overall duration of the portfolio should remain neutral or slightly high. [11] 9. **Special Government Bonds**: The issuance of special government bonds in the first quarter of 2025 remains uncertain, with the issuance plan typically announced around April. This uncertainty could affect the performance of specific bond types. [12][13] 10. **Focus on 30-Year Bonds**: Four specific 30-year government bonds are recommended for attention due to their good configuration value and liquidity. [14] 11. **Mid-Term Government Bonds**: Two mid-term government bonds (5-year and 7-year) are highlighted for their favorable value in the current market environment. [15] 12. **Floating Rate Bonds**: Current floating rate bonds do not imply any easing expectations, leading to relatively high prices. While there is some attraction for certain funds, large purchases are not advised. [16] 13. **Government Bond Futures**: The December futures contract is considered overpriced relative to cash bonds, but there is potential for basis compression in the far-month contracts. [17] Other Important Insights - The analysis emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic indicators and external factors such as trade tensions and interest rate expectations, which could significantly impact the bond market dynamics. [3][4][8]

Group 1 - The number of domestic private equity firms with over 10 billion yuan in assets has increased to 96, with 5 new firms added in September 2025 [1] - Among the 96 firms, quantitative strategies dominate, with 45 firms (46.88%) employing this approach, followed closely by 42 firms using subjective strategies [1] - The trend of global expansion is evident, with 65 out of 96 firms (67.71%) obtaining Hong Kong's Type 9 license [1] Group 2 - Stock strategies remain the primary focus for 74 firms (77.08%), while multi-asset and bond strategies are used by 12 and 6 firms, respectively [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the average return for 62 reporting firms was 28.80%, with 98.39% of firms achieving positive returns [2] - The performance of quantitative private equity firms was particularly strong, with an average return of 31.90%, surpassing the 24.56% average return of subjective firms [2][3] Group 3 - Among the 32 firms with average returns exceeding 30%, 24 are quantitative firms, representing 75% of this group [3] - Factors contributing to the strong performance of quantitative firms include market style alignment, systematic operations reducing emotional interference, and ongoing strategy iteration and risk control upgrades [3]

Core Viewpoint - The private equity fund market is experiencing a significant rebound, with new product issuances increasing and many funds surpassing the 10 billion yuan mark [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Product Issuance - In the first three quarters, a total of 8,935 private equity securities products were registered, representing a substantial year-on-year increase of 89.38% from 4,718 products [2][3] - The growth in registration numbers is attributed to three main factors: improved market conditions, regulatory guidance enhancing transparency and compliance, and active expansion by institutions [3] - Stock strategies remain the dominant force, with 5,849 products registered, accounting for 65.46% of the total, and showing a year-on-year growth of 99.35% [3] Group 2: Performance of Private Equity Funds - The average return for private equity funds in the first three quarters was 25%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [2][5] - Among the five major strategies, stock strategies led with an average return of 31.19%, with 93.52% of the 5,976 funds achieving positive returns [5][6] - Quantitative long strategies showed exceptional performance, with an average return of 35.95% and a positive return rate of 96.71% [6] Group 3: Growth of Billion-Yuan Private Equity Funds - The average return for the 62 billion-yuan private equity funds reached 28.80%, with 98.39% of them reporting positive returns [7] - A total of 14 funds achieved returns exceeding 40%, while 18 funds had returns between 30% and 40%, indicating strong overall profitability [7] - The number of billion-yuan private equity funds increased to 96 by the end of September 2025, up from 91 at the end of August [8][9] Group 4: Industry Structure and Competition - The registration structure indicates a shift in the competitive landscape, with top quantitative private equity funds dominating the registration rankings [8] - Among the 26 private equity firms with at least 40 registered products, 23 are billion-yuan institutions, highlighting a significant head effect [8] - The industry is witnessing increased concentration, with leading firms expanding while smaller firms actively seek breakthroughs [8]