来源：北京大学国家发展研究院 在全球政治变局、产业链重组、地缘冲突不断、改革不断谋求破局的今天，企业如何在全球网络中找准 合适的节点？如何苦练内功实现可持续增长？ 2025年10月14日，以新书《寻路集》出版为机缘，北大国发院将联合中信出版集团举办承泽论坛第43 期，邀请北大博雅资深教授、国发院经济学教授、《寻路集》作者周其仁，北大国发院管理学教授、教 育部长江青年学者邓子梁，北大国发院DPS金融管理博士2024级、蜜雪冰城集团CFO张渊，北大国发院 EMBA2023级、恒瑞医药临床研发临床协调市场总监孟令芳等一起分享复杂时代的寻路历程与心得体 会。 主 办：北京大学国家发展研究院、中信出版集团 协 办：北大国发院EMBA中心、DPS博士项目 主持人：王贤青——北大国发院传播中心主任 对话嘉宾： 时 间：2025年10月14日14:30—17:00 地 点：北大国发院承泽园B101报告厅 报名线下活动请扫海报二维码 议 程 14:30—14:35 主持人开场 王贤青：北大国发院传播中心主任 14:35—15:00 主题演讲一：全球变局下的企业成长——《寻路集》的由来 周其仁：北大博雅资深教授、国发院经济学教授 ...

Core Insights - In August 2025, China's exports totaled $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.40%, which was below market expectations of 5.92% [1][2] - Imports in August reached $219.48 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.30%, down 2.80 percentage points from the previous month, and also below market expectations of 3.26% [1][2] - The trade surplus for August was recorded at $102.33 billion, an increase of 11.77% year-on-year, with the trade surplus for the first eight months of 2025 exceeding 28% year-on-year, surpassing the full-year trade surplus growth of 20.74% in 2024 [1][2] Export Performance - The main driver of export growth in August was the electromechanical products category, contributing 4.51 percentage points to the overall export growth [2] - Key products such as integrated circuits, automobiles and chassis, LCD panels, and ships significantly boosted export growth [2] - Fertilizer and integrated circuits saw both volume and price increases, with fertilizer export volume rising over 21% year-on-year and average prices increasing by 6.6% [3] Market Dynamics - Exports to ASEAN, the EU, and Africa were the top contributors to China's export growth in August, with contributions of 3.40%, 1.58%, and 1.24% respectively [3] - Exports to the U.S. continued to decline for five consecutive months, with a negative contribution of -5.08% to overall exports in August [3] - ASEAN emerged as the largest export destination for China in the first eight months of 2025, with cumulative exports reaching $434.07 billion [3] Economic Context - The overall export growth in August was affected by a combination of domestic economic policies and weakening global demand [4] - The decline in exports to the U.S. was attributed to the expiration of the "rush export effect" from previous tariff delays and ongoing high tariffs imposed by the U.S. [4] - The import demand was also impacted by the slowdown in export growth, reflecting a still unstable recovery in domestic demand [4] Long-term Challenges - The core challenge for China's exports lies in the dual pressures from the U.S., including high tariffs and systematic containment policies that undermine price competitiveness and create supply chain exclusions [5] - The shift from cyclical fluctuations to structural challenges in foreign trade may significantly impact export industries, particularly those heavily reliant on the U.S. market [5]

Core Insights - India's manufacturing sector has declined from 16.5% of GDP in 2014 to 14.1% in 2024, indicating a regression in industrialization efforts over the past decade [1] - Infrastructure projects, such as the high-speed rail line, have faced significant delays due to land acquisition issues, with only 10 kilometers completed by 2024, originally scheduled for completion in 2022 [1][3] - The reliance on landowners and the lack of government authority to enforce land acquisition have hindered infrastructure development [3] Education and Workforce Challenges - The quality of education in India is poor, with 2022 data showing that third-grade students struggle to read first-grade texts, and 40% of sixth graders cannot perform basic arithmetic [3] - The definition of literacy in India is overly simplistic, with "being able to write one's name" counted as literacy, raising concerns about the quality of the workforce [3] - There is a preference among the youth for software jobs over low-end manufacturing, leading to a shortage of skilled workers in the manufacturing sector [3][4] Manufacturing Sector Limitations - India's manufacturing industry lacks a robust heavy industry base, resulting in reliance on imports for equipment and raw materials, contributing to a projected trade deficit of $189 billion for 2024-2025, with a $99.2 billion deficit against China alone [4] - The failure of Modi's $23 billion initiative to boost manufacturing is attributed to over-reliance on external factors, such as U.S. efforts to restructure supply chains, which have not materialized as expected [6] - Systemic issues, including land reform challenges, inadequate education, incomplete supply chains, and policy reliance on external support, are significant barriers to India's industrial growth [6]

二期基金继续获得来自博世集团的基石出资，并获得顶尖机构投资人的高比例复投。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 事实上， 博原资本 今年已迎来了一定的收获期 ——成长期投资的黑芝麻智能于8月8日正式登陆港 交所，成为"智能汽车AI芯片第一股"；而同样在成长期投资的佑驾创新MINIEYE日前亦已通过港交 所聆讯，或不久后就将正式在港挂牌上市。 同时， 博原资本 还在积极参与 产业链重组带来的投资机会 ——譬如，由福田新能源的商用车板块 剥离而来的卡文新能源，实则为福田和博世二者决定成立的合资公司，博原一期基金和博世创投均共 同参与了对卡文新能源的投资；2023年10月，上市公司中芯集成公告成立芯联动力，专注于车规级 碳化硅制造和模组封装一站式方案，除上市公司本身外，芯联动力还引入了十几家新能源产业方和车 企作为创始股东，其中就包括了博原一期基金。 博原资本管理合伙人兼董事长蒋红权博士表示："在当前市场环境下，绿色智能出行、半导体、AI结 合制造和新能源等领域展现出了巨大的增长潜力和战略意义，这不仅是科技创新的前沿阵地，更是推 动经济发展和产业升级的关键力量。 ...