Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The decline in copper production in Zambia's second quarter poses risks to the goal of increasing copper production to 1 million tons this year. The domestic copper smelting plant's maintenance capacity may decrease month - on - month in August, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased month - on - month. The inflation rebound at the US port end reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts, but the decrease in scrap copper anode plates and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate. It is recommended that investors wait and see [1][2][4] Summary by Related Contents Copper Market Data - On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 79,060, with an increase of 110 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 50,116 lots, a decrease of 1,618 lots. The open interest was 152,557 lots, an increase of 216 lots. The inventory was 24,560 tons, an increase of 126 tons [2] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,180, a decrease of 255 compared to the previous day. The Shanghai copper basis difference was 120, a decrease of 365 [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,760, a decrease of 17 compared to the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 155,800 [2] - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 4.489, a decrease of 0.01 compared to the previous day. The total inventory weight was 267,195, an increase of 400 [2] Zambia Copper Production - Zambia is the second - largest copper producer in Africa. In 2025, the first - quarter copper production was about 224,000 tons. The copper production in the first six months was 439,644 tons. Assuming no revision in the first - quarter production, the second - quarter production was about 215,644 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 4% [2] - Four producers, Sino Metals Leach, First Quantum Minerals, Mimbula, and Sino Xinyuan, affected the second - quarter production. Sino Metals Leach was forced to close due to tailings dam failure and acid leakage [2] - Zambia produced about 820,000 tons of copper last year. The first - half production increased by about 18% year - on - year. To reach the 1 - million - ton target this year, the second - half production needs to increase by about 27% [2] Industry Projects - Jiangxi Heli Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. (formerly Jiangxi Jinhui Copper Industry Co., Ltd.) plans to invest 1.9766065 billion yuan in the industrial park of Qianshan County, Jiangxi to relocate and upgrade the existing project, building an annual 200,000 - ton recycled electrolytic copper project [3] - On August 14, 2025, the environmental impact assessment of Jiangxi Hefan Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd.'s annual 200,000 - ton recycled electrolytic copper project was publicly announced for acceptance, with a publicity period from August 14 to August 27 [5] - Jiangxi Linghao New Material Technology Co., Ltd. plans to build a project in De'an County for annual processing of 500,000 tons of steelmaking furnace charge and 200,000 tons of copper - aluminum recycling, with a total investment of 200 million yuan and environmental protection investment of 1.31 million yuan [3] Copper Product Industry - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China increased compared to last week, leading to an increase (decrease) in the capacity utilization rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods). The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (increased) compared to last week [4] - The capacity utilization rate of copper product industries may change. For example, the capacity utilization rate of copper foil in some fields may increase, while that of copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, and copper tubes may decrease [4] Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see. Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate upward due to macro - prospects and supply - side reform [2]. - Synthetic rubber prices may fluctuate as domestic tire processing rates rise, providing short - term support for downstream demand, while inventory accumulates slightly [2]. - Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber (13,500 - 13,700 and 14,700 - 14,900) and butadiene rubber (10,700 - 10,900 and 12,000 - 12,200) [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Futures - On July 15, 2025, the closing price was 14,395, up 35 from the previous day; the trading volume was 369,788 lots, an increase of 79,174 lots; the open interest was 214,794 lots, up 2,879 lots; the registered warrant volume was 187,060, a decrease of 1,590 [2]. - The natural rubber basis was 30 on July 15, 2025, up 165 from the previous day [2]. - The monthly spreads of natural rubber (near - month to consecutive - one, consecutive - one to consecutive - two, consecutive - one to consecutive - three) showed different changes on July 15, 2025, with the near - month to consecutive - one down 265, consecutive - one to consecutive - two up 20, and consecutive - one to consecutive - three up 45 [2]. Synthetic Rubber Futures - On July 15, 2025, the closing price was 11,535, down 90 from the previous day; the trading volume was 101,885 lots, an increase of 26,899 lots; the open interest was 22,739 lots, a decrease of 1,690 lots; the registered warrant volume was 9,400, an increase of 200 [2]. - The synthetic rubber basis was - 101.67 on July 15, 2025, up 40 from the previous day [2]. - The monthly spreads of synthetic rubber (near - month to consecutive - one, consecutive - one to consecutive - two, consecutive - one to consecutive - three) also had different changes on July 15, 2025, with the near - month to consecutive - one down 300, consecutive - one to consecutive - two up 35, and consecutive - one to consecutive - three up 25 [2]. Supply Side - In the coming days, there will be some precipitation in major natural rubber producing areas such as Thailand and Vietnam, less in Indonesia; in domestic producing areas, there will be precipitation in Yunnan and Guangxi, less in Hainan [2]. - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 62.75%, down 6.21% from the previous week; that of styrene - butadiene rubber was 77.19%, down 0.1% from the previous week [2]. - As of July 15, 2025, the daily after - tax profit of Chinese butyl - styrene rubber emulsion polymerization was 234.51 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; that of SBS solution polymerization was 266.64 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of butadiene rubber solution polymerization was 876.11 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [2]. Inventory Side - As of July 11, 2025, the total weekly warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 213,590 tons, an increase of 820 tons from the previous week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 414,900 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons; the bonded area inventory was 92,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons [2]. - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12,763 tons, an increase of 439 tons from the previous week [2]. Cost Side - As of July 15, 2025, the purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Songkhla market in Thailand was 3.8 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The short - term contradiction of crude oil is not prominent, and the oil price volatility has returned to a shock. The price of upstream raw material butadiene has increased. As of July 15, 2025, the daily average price of Chinese butadiene (99.5%) was 9,375 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton from the previous day; as of July 9, 2025, the weekly port inventory of Chinese butadiene was 23,600 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons from the previous week [2]. Demand Side - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.80% from the previous week; the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 72.55%, up 2.51% from the previous week [2]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.904 million vehicles, an increase of 217,700 vehicles from the previous month; the sales volume of passenger cars in May was 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184,300 vehicles; the sales volume of trucks in June was 316,000 vehicles, an increase of 24,500 vehicles, indicating an increase in tire matching demand [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand outlook for domestic bauxite in June is expected to be loose, and the total inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has decreased compared to the previous period. The report also provides trading strategies for alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy, suggesting investors to take corresponding actions based on market conditions [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Shanghai Aluminum Futures - The closing price of the active contract on June 6, 2025, was 20,070 yuan, up 60 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 113,736 lots, a decrease of 13,402 lots; the open interest was 181,458 lots, a decrease of 2,706 lots; and the inventory was 47,792 tons, a decrease of 349 tons [2] 3.1.2 Shanghai Aluminum Basis - The average price of SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum on June 6, 2025, was 20,230 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. The Shanghai aluminum basis was 160 yuan, a decrease of 80 yuan [2] 3.1.3 Alumina Spot Price - The national average price of alumina on June 6, 2025, was 3,269.68 yuan/ton, down 4.05 yuan from the previous day. The prices in different regions showed different degrees of change [2] 3.1.4 Alumina Futures Price - The closing price on June 6, 2025, was 2,901 yuan, down 42 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 696,379 lots, an increase of 20,294 lots; the open interest was 298,435 lots, a decrease of 21,037 lots; and the inventory was 92,768 tons, a decrease of 3,906 tons [2] 3.1.5 London Aluminum - The closing price of the LME 3 - month aluminum futures (electronic trading) on June 6, 2025, was 9,670.5 yuan, down 37 yuan from the previous day. The LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 69.84 yuan, a decrease of 23.31 yuan; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 132.5 yuan, a decrease of 26.84 yuan [2] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Alumina - In Shanxi and Henan, some mines have resumed production. In Guinea, some mining rights have been revoked or some enterprises have been required to stop production. In Guangxi, a ten - year special inspection on illegal mining and heavy - metal pollution will be carried out. These factors may lead to a decrease in the production and import volume of domestic bauxite in June, but the demand is expected to be weak. The production capacity utilization rate and production volume of Chinese alumina have increased compared to the previous week [3] 3.2.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Some electrolytic aluminum projects in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and other places are under construction or have been put into production. The production capacity utilization rate and production volume of Chinese electrolytic aluminum are expected to increase in June. The import volume of domestic electrolytic aluminum may increase, but the closing of the import window may limit it. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China has decreased compared to the previous week [3] 3.2.3 Aluminum Alloy - American enterprises are actively competing for overseas scrap aluminum procurement. The production and import volume of domestic scrap aluminum in June may decrease. The production capacity utilization rate of primary and secondary aluminum alloys in China has changed, and the inventory of aluminum alloy has increased compared to the previous week [3] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Alumina**: Due to potential fluctuations in bauxite production in Guinea and Guangxi, the downward space for alumina prices is limited. Investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on the support level around 2,600 - 2,900 yuan and the resistance level around 3,300 - 3,500 yuan [3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Although the inventory of aluminum and aluminum rods is decreasing, the traditional consumption off - season is approaching. The price of electrolytic aluminum may fluctuate widely. Investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on the support level around 19,800 - 20,000 yuan and the resistance level around 20,300 - 20,500 yuan for domestic aluminum, and the support level around 2,300 - 2,400 yuan and the resistance level around 2,500 - 2,600 yuan for London aluminum [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The production and import of recycled cast aluminum alloy are in a loss state. The price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy may widen. Investors are advised to pay attention to the opportunity of arbitrage by lightly holding positions to test long the price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy, focusing on the support level around 19,500 yuan and the resistance level around 20,700 - 20,800 yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to the uncertainty in the tariff negotiations between the US and China and the slowdown in the decline of China's electrolytic copper social inventory, copper prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended that investors short lightly on rallies in the short - term, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 7, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,790 yuan, up 190 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 132,768 lots, an increase of 49,254 lots; open interest was 179,103 lots, up 6,478 lots; inventory was 21,541 tons, a decrease of 3,381 tons. The SMW 1 computer copper +12 price was 78,580 yuan, up 390 yuan [2] - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: On May 7, 2025, the Shanghai copper basis was 790 yuan, up 200 yuan from the previous day; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was 220 yuan, up 40 yuan; in North China, it was - 60 yuan, down 30 yuan; in East China, it was 125 yuan, down 20 yuan [2] - **Spread (Near - Month and Far - Month)**: On May 7, 2025, the spread between Shanghai copper near - month and continuous - first was 370 yuan, up 60 yuan; between continuous - first and continuous - second was 380 yuan, up 10 yuan; between continuous - second and continuous - third was 360 yuan, down 20 yuan [2] - **London Copper**: Data on May 6, 2025 showed that the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 0238; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 193,975 tons; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 21.75; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 149.74 [2] - **COMEX Copper**: On May 7, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.62, down 0.09 from May 5; the total inventory was 156,623 tons, an increase of 4,007 tons [2] Industry News - **Port Incident**: The Patache port's belt - conveyor terminal was damaged in a collision with a ship. Loading operations stopped two weeks ago, and repairs are expected to take at least 2 months. Collahuasi copper concentrate will be transported by road during the repair period, with no significant impact on shipments [2] - **Chilean Copper Exports**: In April 2025, Chile's copper exports were 160,660 tons, with 29,14 tons to China. Copper ore and concentrate exports were 1,040,756 tons, with 632,551 tons to China. Exports to China of both copper and copper ore dropped to over - one - year lows [2] Company News - **Mine Production Changes**: Antamina copper mine in Peru is gradually resuming production (2024 output: 927,000 metal tons); KGHM's Sierra Corda copper mine in Chile suspended production due to a worker's death (2024 output: 146,000 metal tons); a steel plant of Kazakhmys suspended production after a mine accident [4] - **Project Updates**: ACS - Metalstopes' fluidized copper ore expansion project will be put into production in Q1 2020, with an initial annual output of 26,000 tons; Freeport McMoRan in Indonesia was approved to export 1.27 million tons of copper concentrate in 6 months but will face higher export taxes; Jiangxi Copper's Ecuadorian mine's second - phase 160,000 - ton capacity may be put into production in H2 2025; Julong Copper Mine's second - phase 200,000 - ton/day expansion project may be completed by the end of 2025 [4] - **Smelter News**: Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile suspended production until May due to a furnace problem; Xanor Kakula copper smelter in Congo may be completed and put into production in June 2025, with an annual output of 500,000 tons of anode copper; Yimen Copper's new anode copper production increased from 100,000 to 150,000 tons on April 12; Jiangxi Copper's Jiangyuan second - phase 150,000 - ton cathode copper project started in Guixi; Jinchuan Group's second - phase 200,000 - ton intelligent circuit copper project produced the first batch of high - purity cathode copper in March [4] Downstream Market - **Copper Rod**: New orders and long - order executions of refined copper rod enterprises decreased, with production based on existing orders. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods increased, while that of recycled copper rods decreased. Raw material and finished - product inventories of both types of enterprises increased [4] - **Other Downstream Industries**: The capacity utilization rate of steel enterprises in China may increase in May. For copper - related downstream industries, the capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase, while that of copper wave - wrapped wire, copper plate - strip, steel pipe, and brass rod may decrease [4] Trading Strategy - Short lightly on rallies in the short - term, paying attention to support and resistance levels: Shanghai copper at 70,000/73,000 - 75,000 and 78,500 - 80,000; London copper at 8,700 - 8,900 and 9,600 - 9,800; US copper at 4.3 - 4.5 and 4.86/5.0 - 5.2 [4]