Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. marks the official launch of a long-anticipated "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" in the photovoltaic industry, aimed at addressing the severe competition within the sector [1] Group 1: Industry Context - The polysilicon storage initiative is seen as a critical measure to alleviate the "involution" and vicious competition in the photovoltaic industry, which has been a significant concern for many sectors in China [1] - The initiative is not only an exploration within the photovoltaic industry but also serves as a potential replicable model for other industries facing similar challenges [1] Group 2: Implementation Principles - The storage plan must prioritize the long-term healthy development of the industry, ensuring that it does not become a feast for leading enterprises at the expense of small and medium-sized enterprises and the entire supply chain [2] - Legal compliance is crucial, particularly regarding antitrust laws, as any monopolistic behavior could pose significant risks to the future of China's renewable energy sector [2] - The storage initiative should adhere to market principles, allowing for voluntary participation rather than administrative mandates, and should include mechanisms for exiting the market to hold companies accountable for poor decisions [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The success of the storage initiative depends on the market's ability to validate whether silicon prices can return to a reasonable range, which requires sufficient demand from downstream buyers [3] - The approach to advancing the storage plan must be cautious, as recent fluctuations in stock prices and futures have indicated potential market manipulation, necessitating careful communication and information disclosure [3] - The initiative represents a combination of effective market mechanisms and proactive government involvement, with the potential to serve as a model for other industries if successful, while failure could exacerbate issues within the photovoltaic sector [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current production cut scale of industrial silicon is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern, and the follow - up depends on actual production cuts. The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall [3][16][17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 370 yuan/ton to 8435 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot East China oxygen - fed 553 decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 9200 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang 99 decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 8750 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon increased by 3260 yuan/ton to 58770 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material remained flat at 53200 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Partial Start of Production Cuts, Polysilicon Capacity Integration and Acquisition Platform Launched - **Industrial silicon**: This week, the main contract of industrial silicon futures dropped significantly. Factories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Gansu had changes in the number of furnaces. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.3 tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.45 tons. After updating the balance sheet, it is estimated that industrial silicon will be in tight balance in December, but there may be inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year. The current factory inventory pressure is not large, and the basis has only strengthened by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The current futures price has reached the cash cost line of 50% of the monthly output [11]. - **Organic silicon**: This week, the organic silicon price remained stable. Some device operations changed, the overall enterprise operating rate was 69.84%, the weekly output was 4.62 tons, a decrease of 4.74% week - on - week, and the inventory was 4.44 tons, a decrease of 2.63% week - on - week. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures rose significantly. The price of N - type dense re - feeding material of leading manufacturers remained above 51 - 53 yuan/kg, and the granular material remained at 50 - 51 yuan/kg. Considering the production cuts of leading enterprises, the planned production in December is expected to be 11.2 tons. The inventory continues to accumulate. The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall [13]. - **Silicon wafers**: This week, the silicon wafer price stopped falling. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.18/1.20 - 1.23/1.50 yuan/piece. The planned production in December is 45GW. After the production cuts, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [14]. - **Battery cells**: This week, the battery cell price continued to decline. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells dropped to 0.28 yuan/watt, and the G12R model remained at 0.275 yuan/watt. The planned production in December is 47.8GW. The cost pressure is rising, and the price is expected to stabilize and rise [14]. - **Components**: This week, the component price remained basically stable. The mainstream delivery price of centralized components was 0.64 - 0.70 yuan/watt, and that of distributed projects was 0.66 - 0.70 yuan/watt. The planned production in December will drop significantly to 37GW. The price is expected to remain stable [15]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions - **Industrial silicon**: The current production cut scale is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern. The new warehouse receipts are difficult to digest. The current futures valuation is low, and the strategy is to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies [16]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall. The strategy is to focus on long - buying opportunities on dips after the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and observe the absolute price of the 01 contract for arbitrage [17]. 3.4 Hot News Compilation - The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, aiming to solve the "involution" - style vicious competition in the photovoltaic industry. The platform will operate in a dual - track mode of "debt - assumption acquisition + flexible use of production capacity" [18]. - The winning bid candidates for the 2.5GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement of China Three Gorges Corporation were announced, with the bid price ranging from 0.75 to 0.763 yuan/W and an average price of 0.756 yuan/W [19]. 3.5 Industrial Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data tracking charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including price, output, inventory, and profit data [20][30][34][40][48][55].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform" by Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. is seen as a crucial step to address the "involution" and vicious competition within the photovoltaic industry [1] Group 1: Platform Overview - The platform is guided by relevant authorities and initiated by leading enterprises, aiming to innovate industry governance [1] - It will operate under a dual-track model of "debt-acquisition + flexible capacity storage" to tackle the issue of vicious competition in the industry [1] Group 2: Economic and Strategic Implications - Economically, the platform is expected to handle potential debts amounting to hundreds of billions, helping to alleviate crises between banks and suppliers, and pushing prices back to reasonable levels [1] - Strategically, it aims to reverse the situation of loss-making exports and "involution externalization," allowing companies to invest sustainably in R&D after achieving profitability [1] Group 3: Institutional Innovation - The platform represents a governance exploration combining "effective market + proactive government," which, if successful, could serve as a replicable model for other industries facing similar issues of vicious competition [1]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform" in the photovoltaic industry is seen as a crucial step to address the "involution" and vicious competition within the sector [1] Group 1: Industry Development - The platform was officially registered by Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., marking a significant milestone for the photovoltaic industry [1] - This initiative is guided by relevant authorities and involves collaboration among several leading enterprises, aiming to innovate industry governance [1] Group 2: Operational Model - The platform will adopt an innovative dual-track model, implementing "debt-acquisition + flexible capacity storage" to operate [1] - The goal is to utilize market-oriented and legal mechanisms, drawing on successful historical experiences from industries like Japan's cement sector and China's electrolytic aluminum industry [1] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The initiative aims to tackle the issue of "involution" and vicious competition in the photovoltaic sector by focusing on the upstream segments of the industry chain [1] - The approach involves a combination of government guidance, industry collaboration, and market-based mergers and acquisitions [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports Group 2: Report Core Views Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong throughout the year. Maintain a bullish view on tin prices, hold existing long positions, and consider adding long positions on price pullbacks. Monitor the US interest rate decision and supply - side changes [1] Nickel - After the recent production cuts, the supply surplus has narrowed, but the supply pressure remains strong, limiting the upside potential. Macro factors are improving, but the price driver weakens after the valuation repair. The Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price has declined, and domestic inventory is increasing. In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to trade in a range, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [2] Stainless Steel - Macroeconomic conditions are temporarily stable, and supply pressure has eased slightly, but demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory reduction is difficult. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate and repair, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Focus on the implementation of steel mill production cuts and raw material price changes [3] Zinc - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the export space has opened, but spot trading is average, causing zinc prices to oscillate. As TC decreases, supply pressure eases, and short - term prices have limited downside. Refined zinc exports tighten the spot market, boosting domestic zinc prices. In the future, if TC stabilizes, zinc production may increase again. Monitor the TC inflection point and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract reference range of 22,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [5] Copper - Globally, the structural imbalance in copper supply and inventory drives short - term price surges, and price volatility may intensify. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price bottom. The main contract should pay attention to the support level of 90,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton [6] Lithium Carbonate - The current macro environment and fundamentals support prices, but there are limited new driving factors. The market faces the resumption of large - scale production and the sustainability of off - season demand. In the short - term, the price is expected to trade in a wide range, with the main contract reference range of 92,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [8] Aluminum - Alumina supply is in excess, and prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton. Observe the actual production cut scale and inventory inflection point. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term, trading in the range of 21,500 - 22,200 yuan/ton, but beware of the risk of price pullbacks. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and domestic inventory reduction [9] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range shifting down to 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Consider closing positions if market expectations change [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures may continue to oscillate at high levels. Given the weak demand and significant production cutbacks, if there are no substantial production cuts, the spot price has limited upside potential, and the futures price is more likely to decline towards the spot price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [11] Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price has limited downside due to strong cost support but is restricted by high inventory and high prices from rising. In the short - term, it is expected to maintain a high - level narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. Monitor the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement rhythm [12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price increased to 316,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.64%; SMM 1 tin premium increased by 200% to 150 yuan/ton [1] - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased to 120,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.12%; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 1.01% to 4,900 yuan/ton [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price difference increased by 2.17% to 470 yuan/ton [3] - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased to 23,190 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.26%; the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 65 yuan/ton [5] - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased to 92,215 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.09%; the premium decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton [6] - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 92,750 yuan/ton; the basis remained unchanged at 92,750 yuan/ton [8] - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased to 21,880 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.18%; the premium remained unchanged at - 90 yuan/ton [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon decreased to 9,200 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.08%; the basis increased by 37.60% to 860 yuan/ton [10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,600 yuan/ton; the scrap - to - refined price difference in Foshan for crushed primary aluminum increased by 3.86% to 1,829 yuan/ton [12] Inter - month Spreads - **Tin**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 42.86% to - 200 yuan/ton [1] - **Nickel**: The spread of 2601 - 2602 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to - 270 yuan/ton [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The spread of 2601 - 2602 remained unchanged at - 115 yuan/ton [3] - **Zinc**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [5] - **Copper**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [6] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 1,840 yuan/ton to 1,580 yuan/ton [8] - **Aluminum**: The spread of AL 2512 - 2601 decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 8,750 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton [10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spread of 2601 - 2602 decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [12] Fundamental Data Production - **Tin**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49% to 11,632 tons; SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16,090 tons [1] - **Nickel**: In November, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% to 33,342 tons [2] - **Stainless Steel**: In November, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons [3] - **Zinc**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56% to 59.52 million tons [5] - **Copper**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05% to 110.31 million tons [6] - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35% to 95,350 tons [8] - **Aluminum**: In November, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% to 363.66 million tons [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, national industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% to 40.17 million tons [10] - **Polysilicon**: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 7.50% to 2.58 million tons; monthly production decreased by 14.48% to 11.46 million tons [11] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74% to 68.20 million tons; primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.84% to 30.27 million tons [12] Import and Export - **Tin**: In October, refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% to 526 tons; exports decreased by 15.33% to 1,480 tons [1] - **Nickel**: In October, refined nickel imports decreased by 65.66% to 9,741 tons [2] - **Stainless Steel**: In November, stainless steel imports increased by 3.18% to 12.41 million tons; exports decreased by 14.43% to 35.81 million tons [3] - **Zinc**: In October, refined zinc imports decreased by 16.94% to 1.88 million tons; exports increased by 243.79% to 0.85 million tons [5] - **Copper**: In October, electrolytic copper imports decreased by 15.61% to 28.21 million tons [6] - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, lithium carbonate imports increased by 21.86% to 23,881 tons; exports increased by 63.05% to 246 tons [8] - **Aluminum**: In October, electrolytic aluminum imports increased by 0.61% to 24.84 million tons; exports decreased by 15.18% to 2.46 million tons [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, industrial silicon exports decreased by 35.82% to 4.51 million tons [10] - **Polysilicon**: In November, polysilicon imports increased by 11.96% to 0.14 million tons; exports decreased by 27.99% to 0.15 million tons [11] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, unforged aluminum alloy ingot imports decreased by 7.06% to 7.64 million tons; exports increased by 31.49% to 3.09 million tons [12] Inventory - **Tin**: SHEF weekly inventory increased by 7.96% to 6,865 tons; social inventory increased by 2.39% to 8,012 tons [1] - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory increased by 4.23% to 42,508 tons; social inventory increased by 2.71% to 56,848 tons [2] - **Stainless Steel**: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 2.06% to 49.20 million tons [3] - **Zinc**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 5.75% to 13.60 million tons; LME inventory increased by 0.69% to 5.8 million tons [5] - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory increased by 0.82% to 16.03 million tons; bonded - area inventory decreased by 12.82% to 7.75 million tons [6] - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 23.36% to 64,560 tons [8] - **Aluminum**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 0.17% to 59.50 million tons; LME inventory decreased by 0.48% to 52.6 million tons [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: National social inventory increased by 1.45% to 55.80 million tons [10] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.56% to 29.10 million tons [11] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory decreased by 0.54% to 5.53 million tons [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Report's Core View - The silicon market currently maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices under pressure and both spot and futures prices falling in tandem. Attention should be paid to the subsequent registration of new warehouse receipts and the actual start - up of silicon enterprises. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to conduct interval operations. For polysilicon, downstream production scheduling has declined, acceptance of high - priced goods is low, and there is significant inventory accumulation pressure. It is advisable to hold previous long positions cautiously and be vigilant against the risk of price pull - backs after positive news is realized. It is recommended to temporarily observe [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon grade 553 (East China) without oxygen decreased by 1.08% to 9,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of grade 421 (East China) decreased by 0.52% to 9,650 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped by 3.86% to 8,340 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: In the southwest, the suspension of production in silicon enterprises has basically been implemented, and the start - up rate is at a low level for the year. In the north, the start - up is relatively stable. It is expected that the industrial silicon output in December will fluctuate slightly around 400,000 tons [1]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: Polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce production, and silicone enterprises have reached a joint production - reduction mechanism, which may weaken the demand for industrial silicon. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is limited [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Conduct interval operations [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 1.95% to 55,615 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: Silicon material enterprises continue to reduce production, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting increases and decreases, it is expected that the output in October will still increase slightly, and the output in November is expected to drop to around 120,000 tons month - on - month [1]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The prices in the industrial chain are under pressure and are being adjusted downwards. Although polysilicon prices remain firm, market transactions are light, there are few new transactions, and downstream resistance to high - priced resources is strong [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Temporarily observe. Hold previous long positions cautiously and be vigilant against the risk of price pull - backs after positive news is realized [1]. Industry News - As of September 2025, US solar developers have added 21.2GW of installed capacity, exceeding the 20GW added in the same period in 2024. Solar energy accounts for 11.78% of the total installed power generation capacity in the US [1]. - On December 9, 2025, the long - awaited polysilicon production capacity integration and acquisition platform, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., was officially established, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan [1].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.37% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.39%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.61% [3] - The Korean National Pension Service (NPS) has been selling US dollars to support the weakening Korean won, holding approximately $542 billion in overseas assets as of September 30 [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The Fujian sector showed strong performance, with multiple stocks such as Anji Food and Longzhou Co. hitting the upper limit [4][5] - The proposal from the Quanzhou Municipal Committee emphasizes the construction of new infrastructure and digital transformation, which is expected to boost local economic development [4] - The commercial aerospace concept stocks remained active, with companies like Shaanxi Huada and Aerospace Changfeng reaching their daily limit [6][7] Group 3: Solar Industry Insights - The multi-crystalline silicon market saw significant price increases, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [10][21] - A new platform for multi-crystalline silicon capacity integration has been established, with a registered capital of 3 billion RMB, aimed at exploring strategic cooperation opportunities within the industry [21] - Analysts suggest that if capacity is cleared and price transmission is smooth, integrated companies may see a bottom reversal in profitability, with a focus on companies like Longi, Trina, and JA Solar [21]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a new polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform named Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. has been officially announced, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan, aimed at exploring strategic cooperation opportunities within the industry [1] Group 1 - The company was founded on December 9, 2025, and is located in Chaoyang District, Beijing [1] - The platform is intended for major industry players to explore potential strategic cooperation opportunities, including technology upgrades, market expansion, and optimization of capacity and costs [1] - There is no clear confirmation from industry insiders regarding whether this company is the long-anticipated polysilicon storage platform [1]