Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Unilateral - Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - commodity: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4][5] - Polysilicon: Unilateral - Short - term range trading; Inter - period: None; Inter - commodity: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [9] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: The current fundamentals have little change, and the industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies to promote capacity reduction, the futures price may rise as the current valuation is low [3]. - Polysilicon: The new energy consumption index has a long - term positive impact but limited short - term influence. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and market reality, with large fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [9]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On September 16, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price opened high and closed low. The main contract 2511 opened at 9000 yuan/ton and closed at 8915 yuan/ton, a change of 0.85% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 287184 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49872 lots, a decrease of 33 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The prices in regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and Xinjiang rose. The 97 - silicon price was slightly adjusted upward. The willingness of northern silicon enterprises to sell was positive, and their quotes were more advantageous than those of spot - futures traders. The increase in spot trading was less than that of the futures market [1]. - **Consumption Side**: The price of organic silicon DMC was stable. After two weeks of low - level operation, downstream enterprises had completed rigid restocking. Monomer factories, supported by pre - sold orders, were more willing to increase prices to stimulate orders and repair profit margins [2]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 16, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 opened high and closed low, with wide - range fluctuations. It opened at 55600 yuan/ton and closed at 53670 yuan/ton, a 0.51% change from the previous trading day. The position was 127779 lots, and the trading volume was 316394 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, while the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 21.90 (with a 3.79% change), and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.55GW (a - 1.78% change). The weekly polysilicon output was 31200.00 tons (a 3.31% change), and the silicon wafer output was 13.88GW (a 0.73% change) [6][7]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery Chip, and Component Markets**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery chips, and components were relatively stable [7]. - **Policy Impact**: The new energy consumption standard for polysilicon was more stringent. In the long run, it could control production capacity, but in the short term, the impact on supply might be limited as it was only a draft for comments [8]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - The spot price followed the futures price and increased slightly. The current fundamentals had little change. The futures market was mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to whether there were policies for capacity withdrawal. If so, the futures price might rise [3]. Polysilicon - The supply - demand fundamentals were average. The new energy consumption index had a long - term positive impact. The futures market was affected by policies and market reality, with large fluctuations. Participants should pay attention to risk management, follow the implementation of policies and the downward transmission of spot prices. In the medium - to - long - term, it was suitable to buy on dips [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for polysilicon; short - term range operation for polysilicon [5][7] - Inter - period: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][5][7] - Inter - commodity: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][5][7] - Spot - futures: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][5][7] - Options: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][5][7] Core View - Industrial silicon's short - term supply - demand fundamentals are average. The intraday sharp rise and then fall of the industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by the rise of coking coal. The short - term industrial silicon futures are affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies to promote, the futures may have room to rise as the current valuation is low [2] - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average. The current futures are affected by the anti - involution policy and weak reality. The policy is still in progress, and the futures fluctuate greatly. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to go long on polysilicon at low prices [7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On September 15, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,725 yuan/ton and closed at 8,800 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 290,948 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,905 lots, down 93 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was also 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai regions rose slightly, and the price of 97 silicon was slightly adjusted up [1] - The quotation of silicone DMC was 10,700 - 10,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The monomer factory's pre - sales orders were sufficient, and the inventory pressure was not large. Downstream enterprises' procurement rhythm remained unchanged, mainly replenishing stocks at low prices, with limited support for the market. Silicone is expected to stabilize in the short term [1] Polysilicon - On September 15, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 53,630 yuan/ton and closed at 53,545 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 132,212 lots (134,898 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 237,981 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.10 - 54.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 21.90 (a month - on - month change of 3.79%), the silicon wafer inventory was 16.55GW (a month - on - month change of - 1.78%), the weekly polysilicon output was 31,200 tons (a month - on - month change of 3.31%), and the silicon wafer output was 13.88GW (a month - on - month change of 0.73%) [4] - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.33 yuan/piece (up 0.05 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.68 yuan/piece (up 0.05 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.43 yuan/piece (up 0.05 yuan/piece) [4] - Silicon wafer enterprises may raise prices. N - type silicon wafers - 183mm may rise to 1.35 yuan/piece, N - type silicon wafers - 210R to 1.45 yuan/piece, and N - type silicon wafers - 210mm to 1.7 yuan/piece. The price increase of 183mm is likely to be accepted by downstream, while the other two sizes need to pay attention to the transaction situation [6] - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.32 yuan/W (up 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.31 yuan/W (up 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W [6] - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The spot price rose slightly following the futures. The short - term supply - demand fundamentals are average. The short - term industrial silicon futures are affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. Attention should be paid to whether there are policies for capacity withdrawal. If there are policies to promote, the futures may have room to rise [2] Polysilicon - The supply - demand fundamentals are average. The current futures are affected by the anti - involution policy and weak reality. Participants should pay attention to risk management. They need to continuously follow up on the implementation of policies and the downward transmission of spot prices. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to go long on polysilicon at low prices. Short - term range operation is recommended [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Bearish / Polysilicon: Bearish [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang still affects the fundamental changes of industrial silicon. Short - term industrial silicon may operate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities. For polysilicon, although the spot dense material quotation has risen to 55 yuan/kg, the actual transaction price is likely to be concentrated between 50 - 52 yuan/kg. After the sharp rise in the futures market stimulated by the "anti - involution" news, the futures have a large premium over the spot, which may stimulate the hedging willingness of silicon material enterprises again. The upward space of polysilicon is limited, while the downward space is opened. Short - term attention should be paid to the callback opportunity, and the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity can be considered at around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial silicon/polysilicon industry chain prices - This week, the Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 430 yuan/ton to 8820 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - passing 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9100 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 8500 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 7180 yuan/ton to 56735 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N - type re -投料 increased by 1100 yuan/ton to 49000 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 "Anti - involution" news stimulates significant premium in the futures market - **Industrial silicon**: The main futures contract of industrial silicon fluctuated downward this week. The number of open furnaces in Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Northeast decreased by 3, 1, and 1 respectively. The resumption volume of large factories in Xinjiang was less than expected, and the southern start - up was basically stable. Some silicon factories may start to reduce production during the dry season in late October. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.40 million tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons. Downstream maintained rigid demand procurement without stockpiling. If the start - up of large factories in Xinjiang remains unchanged, industrial silicon may accumulate about 30,000 tons of inventory from September to October and may reduce inventory by about 100,000 tons during the dry season from November to December. If large factories in Xinjiang resume full production, it may be difficult to reduce inventory during the dry season [11] - **Organic silicon**: The price of organic silicon decreased slightly this week. Some devices were shut down or under maintenance, and the weekly start - up rate changed little. The overall start - up rate of enterprises was 73.47%, the weekly output was 48,600 tons, an increase of 1.04%, and the inventory was 48,400 tons, a decrease of 1.83%. New orders increased slightly, and the market activity increased slightly. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will fluctuate at a low level [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The main futures contract of polysilicon rose significantly this week. Polysilicon production and sales restrictions officially started in September, and the production schedule in September is still around 128,000 tons. Attention should be paid to whether the production will further decline to the quota level. As of September 4, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 211,000 tons, mainly concentrated in two first - tier enterprises. Silicon wafer enterprises' polysilicon raw material inventory reached 200,000 tons. Silicon material enterprises continued to raise prices, but downstream enterprises were resistant to high - priced silicon materials. It is expected that the transaction price of dense material in September will be concentrated between 50 - 52 yuan/kg [13] - **Silicon wafers**: The quotation of silicon wafers was further raised this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers remained at 1.25/1.40/1.60 yuan/piece, but the quotations of M10/G12 were further raised to 1.30/1.65 yuan/piece. As of September 4, the silicon wafer factory inventory was 16.85GW, and the production schedule in September was 57.5GW. It is expected that silicon wafers will stabilize at the new quotation in the short term [14] - **Battery cells**: The price of battery cells further increased this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells rose to 0.3/0.295 yuan/watt, while that of G12R remained at 0.285 yuan/watt. As of September 1, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 7.81GW, and the production schedule in September was 60GW. The price increase of silicon wafers put pressure on battery cells. It is expected that the price of battery cells will remain stable in the short term [15] - **Components**: The price of components remained basically stable this week. Centralized components mainly executed previous orders, and distributed projects executed more new orders. The upstream price increase was not smoothly transmitted to the terminal. It is expected that the component price will fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether there are demand - side policy introductions [16][17] 3.3 Investment advice - **Industrial silicon**: Pay attention to the follow - up progress of large factories' resumption in Xinjiang. Short - term industrial silicon may operate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and pay attention to range - trading opportunities [18] - **Polysilicon**: The actual transaction price of dense material is likely to be concentrated between 50 - 52 yuan/kg. After the sharp rise in the futures market, the futures have a large premium over the spot, which may stimulate the hedging willingness of silicon material enterprises. The upward space of polysilicon is limited, and the downward space is opened. Short - term attention should be paid to the callback opportunity, and the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity can be considered at around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][18] 3.4 Hot news sorting - **China Anneng's component purchase project change**: The original 0.66 yuan/W component price limit was invalid. The tender scale was changed from 2GW to 200MW, and the tender model was changed. The new tender does not set a price limit [19] - **Two - department policy**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued a plan to govern the low - price competition of photovoltaic products according to law, strengthen the monitoring and early warning of key industries, and guide the orderly layout of the photovoltaic and lithium - battery industries [19] 3.5 Industrial chain high - frequency data tracking - **Industrial silicon**: It includes data such as the spot price of oxygen - passing 553 and 99 silicon, weekly output in different regions, and social and factory inventories [21][24][28] - **Organic silicon**: It includes data such as the spot price of DMC, weekly profit, factory inventory, and weekly output [31][32] - **Polysilicon**: It includes data such as the spot price, weekly gross profit, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly output [36][37] - **Silicon wafers**: It includes data such as the spot price, average net profit, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly output [38][40][43] - **Battery cells**: It includes data such as the spot price, average net profit, export factory inventory, and enterprise monthly output [44][46][50] - **Components**: It includes data such as the spot price, average net profit, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly output [53][58][60]

Group 1 - Several brokerage firms have recently adjusted management fees for margin products in response to declining yields, with Shenyin Wanguo Asset Management announcing a management fee adjustment to 0.30% for its money market fund starting September 2 [1] - The adjustment of management fees is closely related to the decline in yields, as many asset management contracts stipulate that fees will be adjusted if the calculated yield falls below twice the current deposit rate [1] - Brokerage margin products are favored for their liquidity services, including T+0 real-time redemption and unlimited withdrawals, which enhance their competitive edge in the market [1] Group 2 - The domestic silicon wafer production plan for September has been raised for the first time, with an overall output increase compared to August, as many silicon wafer companies raise their operating rates due to price increases [2] - The global battery cell production is expected to reach approximately 60GW in September, a 2.3% increase from August, with domestic production also showing a similar increase [2] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a structural recovery, with the analog chip sector seeing a significant rebound in profitability, with a nearly fourfold increase in net profit in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter [2] Group 3 - A new study has identified a weak point in certain blood cancers that can be targeted by drugs, potentially allowing for the selective elimination of cancer cells without harming healthy cells [3] - The research emphasizes the urgent need for new drugs with fewer side effects and stronger targeting capabilities, particularly for conditions like myelodysplastic syndromes [3] Group 4 - Deep Insight Technology announced that its subsidiary has received regulatory approval for a mobile MRI system, making it the first company in China to master and register this core technology [4] - The latest version of the Kimi K2 model has been released, extending the context length to 256K and supporting high output speeds [4] Group 5 - Alibaba and other shareholders have exited Yuanrong Qihang, with the company stating that this is part of its restructuring process [5] - White Elephant's e-commerce subsidiary has been fined for false advertising, highlighting regulatory scrutiny in the sector [5] Group 6 - Zhongshan Securities' Hefei branch has been ordered to rectify its operations due to violations related to investor solicitation activities [6] - Huaxia Bank has been fined 87.25 million yuan for imprudent management of loans and related business [7] Group 7 - Hangzhou Bank's approval for a shareholding change has been revoked due to failure to complete the change within the stipulated time [8] - Yunnan Energy Investment's subsidiary has received a subsidy of 309 million yuan for renewable energy, contributing to its total subsidies of 591 million yuan for the fiscal year [15] Group 8 - The market saw a significant increase in the ChiNext index, with a rise of 6.55%, driven by strong performance in the solid-state battery sector [17] - The overall market showed a positive trend with over 4,800 stocks rising, while only a small number of stocks declined [17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows an oscillating trend. After major manufacturers cut production, the supply - side pressure decreases, the southwest region's operation rate is lower than in previous years, and the consumption side increases. The subsequent focus should be on the operation status of major manufacturers and policy disturbances [2]. - Recently, polysilicon enterprises have actively raised spot quotes in response to the national anti - involution policy. Currently, there are few actual transactions, and terminal installation is expected to decline significantly. The futures market has continuously risen due to policy and capital sentiment. Future attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and price transmission [6]. Group 3: Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On July 7, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak oscillating trend. The main contract 2509 opened at 7980 yuan/ton and closed at 8045 yuan/ton, a change of 55 yuan/ton (0.69%) from the previous settlement. As of the close, the position of the 2509 main contract was 384,707 lots, and on July 8, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 51,349 lots, a change of - 352 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8700 - 8800 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8200 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8000 - 8100 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming and Sichuan decreased, while those in Huangpu Port, Tianjin, the Northwest, Shanghai, and Xinjiang remained stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained stable [1]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10300 - 10600 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic organic silicon DMC production increased by 13.75% month - on - month and decreased by 1.60% year - on - year. In July, although the operation rate of some domestic monomer enterprises decreased, the overall impact was limited, and the estimated organic silicon production in July increased by 1.53% month - on - month [1]. Polysilicon - On July 7, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures maintained an oscillating pattern, opening at 35100 yuan/ton and closing at 36515 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 2.86% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 105,230 lots (77,334 lots the previous day), and the trading volume on that day was 440,264 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The quoted price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 36.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased slightly. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 27.20 (a month - on - month change of 0.74%), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.22GW (a month - on - month change of - 4.43%), the weekly polysilicon production was 24,000.00 tons (a month - on - month change of 1.69%), and the silicon wafer production was 11.90GW (a month - on - month change of - 11.46%) [3]. Silicon Wafers - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.87 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.19 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 0.99 yuan/piece. Affected by the policy orientation of the polysilicon end, the downstream silicon wafer market had a turning point, and the market trading atmosphere heated up, with stronger trading desire. However, enterprises remained cautious about the subsequent trend of the silicon wafer market [5]. Battery Cells - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.23 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.25 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. Components - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W [5]. Group 4: Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices [2]. - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Polysilicon - If the futures price corrects and the polysilicon price is smoothly transmitted downstream to silicon wafers and components, long positions can be laid out at low prices [6]. - Unilateral: None [8] - Inter - period: None [8] - Cross - variety: None [8] - Spot - futures: None [8] - Options: None [8] Group 5: Factors to Monitor - Resumption and new capacity commissioning in the Northwest and Southwest regions [4] - Changes in the operation rate of polysilicon enterprises [4] - Policy disturbances [4] - Macroeconomic and capital sentiment [4] - Operation status of organic silicon enterprises [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures price rebounded on June 25, 2025, while the spot price remained stable. The fundamentals are still weak, with an increase in supply and limited growth in terminal consumption. The recent strong performance of the futures market is mainly due to the expected increase in polysilicon production and market sentiment. Attention should be paid to potential industry policies [1]. - The polysilicon futures market maintained a volatile pattern on June 25, 2025, and the spot price remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased slightly, and the production increased weekly. However, the consumption side weakened, leading to a weak fundamental situation [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rebounded. The main contract 2509 opened at 7,450 yuan/ton and closed at 7,555 yuan/ton, up 1.55% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract was 306,644 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on June 26 was 53,263 lots, a decrease of 307 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8,000 - 8,300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 8,400 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 7,500 - 7,700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7,500 - 7,700 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of organic silicon DMC rebounded slightly, with a quotation of 10,300 - 10,600 yuan/ton. The organic silicon industry has high production capacity pressure, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement [1]. - **Strategy** - For unilateral trading, use range - bound operations, and upstream producers can sell hedging at high prices when appropriate. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 25, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2508 maintained a volatile pattern, opening at 31,000 yuan/ton and closing at 30,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.59% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 80,107 lots (72,286 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 146,141 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 30.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 28.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 27.00 - 30.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 33.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased slightly, with the latest polysilicon inventory at 26.20 (a week - on - week decrease of 4.70%), and the silicon wafer inventory at 18.74GW (a week - on - week decrease of 3.10%). The weekly polysilicon production was 24,500.00 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.94%), and the silicon wafer production was 12.90GW (a week - on - week decrease of 1.53%) [3]. - **Strategy** - The futures market continued to be weak, and the spot trading was average. The fundamentals are weak due to the resumption of production in the southwest during the wet season and the planned start - up in some northwest bases. For unilateral trading, use range - bound operations and sell hedging at high prices. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.89 yuan/piece (- 0.01 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.23 yuan/piece (- 0.03 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.03 yuan/piece (- 0.02 yuan/piece) [5]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.26 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.70 - 0.70 yuan/W [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The price of industrial silicon oscillated strongly, mainly affected by the expected increase in the downstream polysilicon start - up and the overall macro - sentiment, with little change in the fundamentals. The polysilicon futures price dropped significantly on June 18, 2025, mainly due to the expected increase in production and weak consumption [1][2][3][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On June 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract 2509 opened at 7390 yuan/ton and closed at 7425 yuan/ton, a change of 80 yuan/ton (1.09%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 317763 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 55620 lots, a change of - 448 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton. Spot purchases were mainly for rigid demand [1] - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 10400 - 10900 yuan/ton. The start - up of the organic silicon industry increased, but consumption was average, and prices were under pressure [1] Polysilicon - On June 18, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures dropped significantly, opening at 33960 yuan/ton and closing at 33370 yuan/ton, a - 2.00% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 30435 lots (43443 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 94724 lots [3] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 31.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 29.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 34.00 - 37.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 32.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg [3] - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased slightly, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.50 (a 2.23% change), silicon wafer inventory was 19.34GW (a - 3.40% change). The weekly polysilicon production was 23800.00 tons (an 8.00% change), and silicon wafer production was 13.10GW (a 0.40% change) [3] Silicon Wafer - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.91 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.27 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.06 yuan/piece [3] Battery Cell - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5] Component - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W (a - 0.01 yuan/W change), and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W (a - 0.01 yuan/W change) [5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon oscillated strongly. The strategy was mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices [2] Polysilicon - The futures price dropped significantly, mainly affected by the expected increase in production and weak consumption. The strategy was range - bound operation, and sell hedging at high prices. There were no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6] Factors to Watch - The resumption and new capacity production in the Northwest and Southwest regions [4] - Changes in the start - up of polysilicon enterprises [4] - Policy disturbances [4] - Macro and capital sentiment [4] - The start - up of organic silicon enterprises [4]

市场分析 2025-05-22，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡低位震荡，主力合约2507开于7840元/吨，最后收于7880元/吨，较前一日结 算变化（-15）元/吨，变化（-0.19）%。截止收盘，2505主力合约持仓183690手，2025-05-23仓单总数为65298手， 较前一日变化-355手。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-23 多晶硅多空博弈仍较大，盘面小幅反弹 工业硅： 供应端：工业硅现货价格回落。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8500-8800（-50）元/吨；421#硅在9300-9700 （-100）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8000-8100（-50）元/吨，99硅价格在8000-8100（-50）元/吨。根据SMM调研，工 业硅原料电极价格再次承压下调，成本方面，自5月份以来，电极原料价格持续下行，降幅约700-1000元/吨。截至 5月22日，普通功率炭电极直径960-1100mm报价6500-6700元/吨，单周下调800元/吨，直径1272mm报价6900-7100 元/吨，下调900元/吨，普通功率石墨电极，直径960-1100mm、 1272mm、 1320mm ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The cost support has weakened due to the decline in raw materials and electricity prices during the wet season in the southwest region. There are no bright spots on the consumer side, and high industry inventories are suppressing prices. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the southwest and the impact of macro - sentiment [2]. - In the short term, actual spot transactions are extremely rare. Downstream enterprises are mainly consuming inventory. Near - month contracts are still trading based on delivery games, while far - month contracts are trading on weak reality and weak expectations [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price continued to bottom out. The main contract 2507 opened at 8150 yuan/ton and closed at 8130 yuan/ton, a change of (-155) yuan/ton or (-1.87)% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2507 was 155,038 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 66,384 lots, a change of - 49 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon in East China was 8800 - 9100 (-150) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9600 - 10100 (-150) yuan/ton. The price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8100 - 8300 (-100) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8100 - 8300 (-100) yuan/ton. Some silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest region also continued to decline. The price of 97 silicon also declined [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 (0) yuan/ton. It is reported that the market trading volume is expected to recover faster in mid - to late May, and the low - level inventory reduction of monomer enterprises has been effective recently. Although the operation of monomer enterprises in North and Southwest China has recovered, those in the Northwest are still in the maintenance period [1]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, focus on range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 19, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 36,900 yuan/ton and closed at 37,150 yuan/ton, a change of 0.51% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 28,688 (32,702 the previous day) lots, and the trading volume was 72,986 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The quotation of polysilicon re - feedstock was 34.00 - 36.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 33.00 - 35.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30.00 - 32.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, N - type silicon was 37.00 - 39.00 (-0.75) yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 36.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased month - on - month. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 25.00 tons, a month - on - month change of - 2.27%, the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW, a month - on - month change of 7.22%, the weekly polysilicon output was 21,400.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of 0.00%, and the silicon wafer output was 12.42GW, a month - on - month change of 0.50% [4]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, focus on range operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - **Silicon Wafers** - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.94 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.28 (-0.02) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.08 (-0.02) yuan/piece [6]. - **Battery Cells** - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; and HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. - **Components** - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. Factors to Watch - Resumption of production in the southwest and changes in the operation in the northwest [2][5]. - Changes in the operation of polysilicon enterprises [5]. - Policy disturbances [5]. - Macro and capital sentiment [2][5]. - Operation of organic silicon enterprises [5]. - Impact of industry self - discipline on upstream and downstream operations [7]. - Impact of futures listing on the spot market [7].