交银国际研究 公司更新 | 新能源 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 7 月 16 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人民币 | | 42.75 | 人民币 | 49.82↓ | +16.5% | | | 钧达股份 (002865 CH) | | | | | | | 产品价格偏软下业绩预告符合预期，海外产能布局再下一城 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 7/24 11/24 3/25 7/25 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 002865 CH 深证成指 股份资料 | 52周高位 (人民币) | 80.40 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (人民币) | 34.80 | | 市值 (百万人民币) | 9,538.81 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 11.91 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (16.34) | | 200天平均价 (人民币) | 47.47 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 文昊, CPA bob.we ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to "Neutral" from a previous rating due to limited valuation attractiveness after a significant stock price increase [2][7]. Core Views - The approval of a private placement will alleviate the company's financial pressure, with plans to raise RMB 3.5 billion, primarily for a solar cell project [7]. - The company is expected to significantly reduce losses in Q2 2025 due to a higher sales proportion of premium BC components in overseas markets [7]. - The supply side of the photovoltaic industry is anticipated to improve following recent government meetings aimed at regulating low-price competition and enhancing product quality [7]. - The target price for the company has been raised to RMB 16.50, reflecting an increase in valuation from 14 times to 18 times the 2026 earnings [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections show a decline in 2023 to RMB 27,170 million, followed by a significant drop in 2024 to RMB 11,155 million, before rebounding to RMB 22,800 million in 2025 [3][11]. - Net profit is expected to be negative in 2024 at RMB (5,319) million, with a gradual recovery projected in subsequent years, reaching RMB 2,622 million by 2027 [3][11]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be negative in 2024 at RMB (2.91), with a return to positive EPS of RMB 1.43 by 2027 [3][11]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 35.3 in 2023, with a significant drop to 10.2 by 2027, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [3][11]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 32.76%, with a 52-week high of RMB 16.49 and a low of RMB 7.39 [6][10]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 78.98 million shares, indicating active trading interest [6].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-08 政策及资金扰动持续，多晶硅盘面继续反弹 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-07-07，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡，主力合约2509开于7980元/吨，最后收于8045元/吨，较前一日结算变化（55） 元/吨，变化（0.69）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓384707手，2025-07-08仓单总数为51349手，较前一日变化 -352手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8700-8800（0）元/吨；421#硅在8900-9200 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8000-8200（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8000-8100（0）元/吨。昆明、四川地区部分硅价 仍下降。黄埔港、天津、西北、上海、新疆地区硅价暂稳。 97硅价格同样暂稳。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10300-10600（0）元/吨。据SMM统计，6月国内有机硅DMC产量环比5月 增加13.75％，同比减少1.60％。6月国内多数有机硅单体企业开工负荷有所提高。7月虽国内仍有部分单体企业开 工负荷有所下降，但整体影响量较为有限，7月预估有机硅产量环比6月上 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures price rebounded on June 25, 2025, while the spot price remained stable. The fundamentals are still weak, with an increase in supply and limited growth in terminal consumption. The recent strong performance of the futures market is mainly due to the expected increase in polysilicon production and market sentiment. Attention should be paid to potential industry policies [1]. - The polysilicon futures market maintained a volatile pattern on June 25, 2025, and the spot price remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased slightly, and the production increased weekly. However, the consumption side weakened, leading to a weak fundamental situation [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rebounded. The main contract 2509 opened at 7,450 yuan/ton and closed at 7,555 yuan/ton, up 1.55% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract was 306,644 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on June 26 was 53,263 lots, a decrease of 307 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8,000 - 8,300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 8,400 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 7,500 - 7,700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7,500 - 7,700 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of organic silicon DMC rebounded slightly, with a quotation of 10,300 - 10,600 yuan/ton. The organic silicon industry has high production capacity pressure, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement [1]. - **Strategy** - For unilateral trading, use range - bound operations, and upstream producers can sell hedging at high prices when appropriate. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 25, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2508 maintained a volatile pattern, opening at 31,000 yuan/ton and closing at 30,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.59% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 80,107 lots (72,286 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 146,141 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 30.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 28.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 27.00 - 30.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 33.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased slightly, with the latest polysilicon inventory at 26.20 (a week - on - week decrease of 4.70%), and the silicon wafer inventory at 18.74GW (a week - on - week decrease of 3.10%). The weekly polysilicon production was 24,500.00 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.94%), and the silicon wafer production was 12.90GW (a week - on - week decrease of 1.53%) [3]. - **Strategy** - The futures market continued to be weak, and the spot trading was average. The fundamentals are weak due to the resumption of production in the southwest during the wet season and the planned start - up in some northwest bases. For unilateral trading, use range - bound operations and sell hedging at high prices. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.89 yuan/piece (- 0.01 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.23 yuan/piece (- 0.03 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.03 yuan/piece (- 0.02 yuan/piece) [5]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.26 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.70 - 0.70 yuan/W [5].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-19 多晶硅产量或增加，近月合约回落较多 工业硅： 2025-06-18日，多晶硅期货主力合约2507回落较多，开于33960元/吨，最后收于33370元/吨，收盘价较上一交易日 变化-2.00%。主力合约持仓达到30435（前一交易日43443）手，当日成交94724手。 市场分析 2025-06-18，工业硅期货价格偏强震荡，主力合约2509开于7390元/吨，最后收于7425元/吨，较前一日结算变化（80） 元/吨，变化（1.09）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓317763手，2025-06-18仓单总数为55620手，较前一日变化 -448手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8000-8300（0）元/吨；421#硅在8400-9000 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7500-7700（0）元/吨，99硅价格在7500-7700（0）元/吨。现货价格相对企稳，刚需 采购为主。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10400-10900（0）元/吨。SMM报道，有机硅开工有所抬升，但消费表现 一般，价格承压。 策略 工 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-20 现货价格继续走弱，工业硅盘面继续探底 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-05-19，工业硅期货价格继续探底，主力合约2507开于8150元/吨，最后收于8130元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-155） 元/吨，变化（-1.87）%。截止收盘，2507主力合约持仓155038手，2025-05-19仓单总数为66384手，较前一日变化 -49手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格下跌。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8800-9100（-150）元/吨；421#硅在9600-10100 （-150）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8100-8300（-100）元/吨，99硅价格在8100-8300（-100）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、 天津、新疆、四川、上海、西北地区部分硅价也持续走跌。97硅今日价格同样走跌。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11300-11600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，5月中下旬市场成交量预计恢复速度 加快，且近期单体企业低位去库效果尚可，供应端方面虽前期华北、西南等单体企业开工有所复苏，但西北单体 企业当前仍处检修周期中。 策略 单边：区间操作为主，上游逢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article summarizes the key points from the "Shenzhen Stock Exchange Issuance and Listing Review Dynamics" since the implementation of the comprehensive registration system in February 2023, focusing on 23 common business issues addressed in 20 issues published to date. Group 1: Internal Control Audit Requirements - Proposed listed companies must provide an unqualified internal control audit report from an accounting firm when submitting their application or updating financial data for 2024 [3][4] - Existing companies under review must also provide this report when updating their annual report materials for 2024 [4] Group 2: Fundraising and Main Business Focus - Companies should plan the use of raised funds to focus on their main business, ensuring that the projects have a certain revenue scale and are relatively mature [5][6] - The definition of "existing main business" should be based on the time of disclosing the refinancing plan, and projects involving new businesses must be carefully justified [6][7] Group 3: New Product Fund Allocation - When raising funds for new products, companies must demonstrate synergy with existing products and ensure that there are no significant uncertainties in production and sales [8][9] Group 4: Dividend Regulations for IPO Companies - The exchange is tightening regulations on pre-IPO companies regarding "clearing-style" dividends, encouraging companies to retain profits for development rather than distribute them before going public [11] Group 5: Fund Usage Disclosure Requirements - Companies must disclose any changes in the use of previously raised funds in their prospectus, especially if the changes have not been approved by shareholders [12] Group 6: National Shareholder Identification - Companies with state-owned shareholders must clearly indicate this in their application materials and provide relevant approval documents [14] Group 7: Differentiated Supervision of Sponsoring Institutions - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has initiated a differentiated supervision mechanism for sponsoring institutions to enhance the quality of their services [19][20] Group 8: Pre-communication Mechanism Optimization - The exchange has optimized the pre-communication mechanism to improve service quality and efficiency for market participants [21] Group 9: Fund Flow Verification - The exchange has revised guidelines for verifying fund flows in IPO applications, emphasizing the need for detailed documentation and clear audit opinions from sponsors [22][23] Group 10: Capital Reserve Transfer and Lock-up Period - New shares resulting from capital reserve transfers within six months prior to application must be locked for 36 months [28] Group 11: Application Document Requirements - Companies must ensure that their application documents meet the completeness requirements and comply with the new rules under the comprehensive registration system [29][30] Group 12: Attention Points for New Applications - New applicants must adhere to specific guidelines regarding their business focus and ensure compliance with the requirements set forth by the exchange [33][34]

Core Insights - The 2025 Cross-Strait Youth Employment and Entrepreneurship Development Exchange Conference and Industry Cooperation Promotion Conference are key events aimed at enhancing collaboration between Sichuan and Taiwan, focusing on new opportunities for integration and development [3][11] Industry Cooperation - Sichuan's economic scale has surpassed 6 trillion yuan, making it a prime destination for Taiwanese businesses looking to invest in mainland China's western region [4][10] - The region's diverse industrial base, including significant production in sectors like white liquor, solar energy, and electronics, provides a strong foundation for Taiwanese companies to explore [6][10] - Future cooperation is expected to focus on high-tech industries such as electronic information, artificial intelligence, and biopharmaceuticals, leveraging Taiwan's technological advantages and Sichuan's manufacturing capabilities [6][10] Youth Engagement - The conference highlighted the availability of 6,793 internship and employment opportunities for Taiwanese youth in Sichuan, showcasing the province's commitment to attracting young talent [7][8] - Various support measures have been implemented by Sichuan to facilitate Taiwanese youth's participation in cultural, educational, and entrepreneurial activities, enhancing the province's appeal [8][10] Strategic Vision - The collaboration between Taiwan and Sichuan is viewed as a "win-win" scenario, with both regions benefiting from their respective strengths in technology, manufacturing, and market access [10] - The theme of the conference, "Cultivating New Momentum for Development through Integration," emphasizes the importance of deepening ties and fostering mutual growth between the two regions [10][11]

钧达股份（002865.SZ）2024 年年报点评 N 型出货提升显著，海外业务持续扩张 2025 年 03 月 18 日 ➢ 事件 2025 年 3 月 17 日，公司发布 2024 年年报。根据公司公告，24 年全年公司实 现收入 99.52 亿元，同比-44.66%，归母净利润-5.91 亿元，同比转亏，实现扣 非归母净利润-11.18 亿元，同比转亏。 分季度来看，公司 24Q4 实现收入 17.50 亿元，同比-59.08%，环比-4.26%，实 现归母净利润-1.74 亿元，实现扣非归母净利润-3.83 亿元。受制于行业处于去 产能周期，产业链价格下行，公司业绩承压。 ➢ N 型出货同比高增，海外业务加速推进 24 年公司持续推进 TOPCon 技术降本增效，与 23 年相比电池平均量产效率持 续提升，单瓦非硅成本降低 30%，年内发布全新一代 N 型电池"MoNo 2"系 列产品，该产品创新性叠加 J-HEP 半片边缘钝化及 J-WBSF 波浪背场技术，实 现电池片钝化性能及双面率等多项指标的全方位升级。此外，公司 TBC 中试线 上转化效率较主流 N 型电池效率可提升 1-1.5Pcts，与外 ...