| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2026年1月9日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前自 | 张跌 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3320 | 3320 | 0 | 193 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3180 | 30 | 83 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3300 | 3300 | 0 | 173 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3168 | 3111 | 57 | 152 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3213 | 3156 | 57 | 107 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3127 | 3082 | 45 | 193 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3290 | 3300 | -10 | -10 | 元/旺 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3210 | 3210 | O | -90 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

钢材：供需压力逐步累积，钢价或将震荡偏弱 光期研究 见微知著 钢材策略月报 2026 年 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 钢材：供需压力逐步累积，钢价或将震荡偏弱 p 2 1.2 价格：12月国际市场热卷价格涨跌互现，美国、欧盟、东南亚等有所上涨，印度、中东等有所下跌 单位：美元/吨 | | | 热轧板卷 | | | 螺纹钢 | | | 方坯 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 区域 | 12月31日 | 11月28日 | 涨跌 | 12月31日 | 11月28日 | 涨跌 | 12月31日 | 11月28日 | 涨跌 | | 美国钢厂(中西部) | 995 | 970 | 25 | 1010 | 1010 | 0 | - | - | - | | 美国进口 | 870 | 850 | 20 | 960 | 960 | 0 | - | - | - | | 欧盟钢厂 | 735 | 715 | 20 | 685 ...

黑色金属 2026 年展望：供给重塑 20251222 摘要 2026 年黑色系商品价格走势关键在于需求增长预期波动、供给端表现 及政策介入。整体需求稳中有升但难显著反转，供给侧或通过政策进一 步调整以实现平衡，需密切关注原料供应周期变化的影响。 后地产时代，中国人均钢材消费维持高位，内需投资和新型外循环支撑 钢铁消费。2025 年中国钢铁直接和间接出口强劲，新兴市场工业化和 城镇化推动出口增长，但需关注出口管理政策的影响。 钢材方面，后地产时代终端消费下滑斜率较慢，人均消费稳定。内需投 资中基建与制造业投资占比上升，新型外循环推动钢铁产品出口。需关 注粗钢总量压力及政策干预，原料端供给释放周期是 2026 年关键。 钢铁出口政策优化结构，限制高耗能、低附加值产品出口。2025 年钢 坯出口增长迅速，但受反倾销影响，未来政策将继续约束低端钢材品种 的出口。 2026 年中国外循环模式将强化，海外周期性需求或见底，对中高端钢 材制品及间接出口乐观。内需方面，制造业投资转负，地产链消费承压， 基建受项目掣肘，总体内需缺乏长期有效增长点。 Q&A 近期大宗商品市场的变化有哪些值得关注的点？ 最近大宗商品市场中，白银 ...

2025年12月18日 | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：夜盘黑色推涨，价格走势坚挺 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：夜盘黑色推涨，价格走势坚挺 | 3 | | 硅铁：多空情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：多空情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 18 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 0. 92% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 768. 0 | 7.0 | | | | I 2605 | | | 昨日持仓( ...

黑色建材日报 2025-12-11 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3117 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 38 元/吨（1.234%）。当日注册仓单 40679 吨, 环比增加 4858 吨。主力合约持仓量为 151.4218 万手，环比减少 79529 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3180 元/吨, 环比增加 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比增加 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3282 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 30 元/吨（0.922%）。 当日注册仓单 109014 吨, 环比减少 4718 吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing an overall upward trend, but the pace of increase is slowing down, with market pressures still present [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close, the main contracts for rebar and hot-rolled coil reported increases of 25 yuan and 10 yuan respectively, with rebar at 3169 yuan and hot-rolled coil at 3325 yuan [1] - The average price for rebar in the spot market is 3315 yuan, up 13 yuan from the previous trading day, while hot-rolled coil averages 3314 yuan, up 2 yuan [1] - The main contract for coking coal rose by 20 yuan to 1096.5 yuan, and for coke, it increased by 39 yuan to 1629.5 yuan [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - National transaction volumes are slowing down, indicating that while futures prices are rising, actual market transactions have not significantly changed, with end-users purchasing based on demand [2] - Inventory pressures in the market are still increasing, and the overall production pressure on steel mills remains manageable [2] - The steel industry PMI for November is reported at 48%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in industry operations [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current market dynamics suggest that the basic contradictions are becoming more apparent, with high costs leading to continued losses for many steel mills, limiting the potential for price drops [4] - The seasonal demand effect is expected to continue, with a higher probability of declining steel demand as December approaches [2][4] - The trading strategy should focus on profit-taking at high levels, with a recommendation to maintain a cautious stance on new positions [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Medium to long - term: Trade conflicts have intensified, and market sentiment is weak. Most black commodities showed weak performance this week. For rebar, supply decreased while demand increased, but the fundamental improvement was not obvious, and the main contract was under pressure from the 5 - day moving average. Although the daily average hot metal output continued to decline, it remained above 2.4 million tons, providing support to the iron ore demand side, while the supply side tended to be loose, and industrial negative feedback intensified. For glass, the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" fell short of expectations, the weak demand pattern was hard to change, the operating rate increased, and enterprise inventories accumulated, with the main contract dropping significantly on Friday. For soda ash, factory inventories accumulated, downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, the oversupply situation continued, and the main contract maintained a weak and volatile trend [63][67]. - Short - term: After the holiday, the recovery of the demand side fell short of expectations, the inventory reduction speed was slow, and the overall fundamental improvement was limited. The main contracts of the black series were mainly in a weak and volatile trend. This week, glass and soda ash continued to operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of the demand side during the peak season and the policy signal orientation of subsequent important meetings [64][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black Series Weekly Market Review - Rebar (RB2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3103.0 on October 10, 2025, to 3037.0 on October 17, 2025, a decrease of 66.0 or 2.1%. The spot price was 3200.0, and the basis (unconverted) was 163.0 [3]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3285.0 to 3204.0, a decrease of 81.0 or 2.5%. The spot price was 3270.0, and the basis was 66.0 [3]. - Iron ore (I2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 795.0 to 771.0, a decrease of 24.0 or 3.0%. The spot price was 788.0, and the basis was 17.0 [3]. - Coke (J2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 1666.5 to 1676.0, an increase of 9.5 or 0.6%. The spot price was 1620.0, and the basis was - 56.0 [3]. - Coking coal (JM2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 1161.0 to 1179.0, an increase of 18.0 or 1.6%. The spot price was 1350.0, and the basis was 171.0 [3]. - Glass (FG601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1207.0 to 1095.0, a decrease of 112.0 or 9.3%. The spot price was 1270.0, and the basis was 175.0 [3]. - Soda ash (SA601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1240.0 to 1209.0, a decrease of 31.0 or 2.5%. The spot price was 1271.3, and the basis was 62.3 [3]. Rebar - Profit: On October 16, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 60 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply side: As of October 17, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate was 84.27% (unchanged), the daily average hot metal output was 2.4095 million tons (a decrease of 0.59), and the rebar output was 2011600 tons (a decrease of 22400) [12]. - Demand side: In the week of October 17, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.1975 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 737400 tons. As of October 16, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 101819 tons [17]. - Inventory: In the week of October 17, the social inventory of rebar was 4.5641 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 108900 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.8464 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77000 tons [22]. Iron Ore - Supply side: In the week of October 10, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.2075 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71500 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in the country was 3.1441 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 368300 tons [27]. - Inventory: In the week of October 17, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 14.96187 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 320000 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 8.98273 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63460 tons [30]. - Demand side: In the week of October 17, the average daily port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 3293200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 122200 tons. As of October 16, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 120700 tons [35]. Float Glass - Supply side: In the week of October 17, the number of operating float glass production lines was 226, a week - on - week increase of 1; the weekly output was 1128925 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate was 80.63% (unchanged), and the operating rate was 76.35% (unchanged) [38]. - Inventory: In the week of October 17, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 64.2756 million weight boxes, an increase of 1.4516 million weight boxes compared with October 10. The number of days of available in - plant inventory was 27.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 days [43]. - Demand side: As of September 30, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 11 days [47]. Soda Ash - Supply side: In the week of October 17, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.93%, a decrease of 3.48 percentage points compared with the previous week; the output was 740500 tons, a decrease of 30300 tons compared with the previous week [51]. - Factory inventory: As of October 17, the factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7005 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40700 tons [56]. - Production and sales rate: As of October 17, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 94.5%, a week - on - week increase of 2.07 percentage points [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In October, steel prices are expected to be weak first and then strong. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long on rebar RB2601 around 3000. The signal requires continuous inventory reduction of steel products or the emergence of macro - positive news. The decline space of finished products is limited due to low valuation, while raw materials have relatively high valuation and greater downward pressure [3][57]. Summary by Directory 01 Review: Futures Oscillated, Finished Products Weaker than Raw Materials - **Black - Spot**: In September, black spot prices showed a differentiated trend. Finished products had a reverse N - shaped trend with little change in price month - on - month. Among raw materials, coke prices fell, coking coal rose significantly, scrap steel was stable with a slight upward trend, and iron ore first rose and then fell [8]. - **Black - Futures**: In September, black futures prices first fell, then rebounded, and then fell again. Finished products were weaker than raw materials. Rebar and hot - rolled coil closed down month - on - month, with hot - rolled coil having a larger decline. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar narrowed. Among raw materials, iron ore and coking coal prices fell by about 1%, and coke prices declined slightly [11]. - **Futures Market**: In September, precious metal prices rose significantly, while most other commodities prices fell [14]. 02 Outlook: Concerns about October Demand, Fundamentals Still Under Pressure - **Overseas Macro**: On September 18, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, officially starting a new round of interest - rate cuts. On September 29, Trump announced tariffs on imported softwood logs, lumber, cabinets, etc. The EU plans to impose 25% - 50% tariffs on Chinese steel and related products in the coming weeks [19]. - **Domestic Economy**: From January to August 2025, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.5% year - on - year, with infrastructure investment growing by 2.0%, manufacturing investment by 5.1%, and real estate development investment falling by 12.9%. Social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.6% year - on - year. The total value of goods imports and exports was 29.5696 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, with exports growing by 6.9% and imports falling by 1.2% [22]. - **Demand - Infrastructure**: From January to August 2025, the national general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 3.1%. The national government - funded budget revenue decreased by 1.4%, and the expenditure increased by 30%. As of the 38th week (9/15 - 9/21), the cumulative net financing of national debt + new local bond issuance was 9.7 trillion, with a progress of 81.9%, exceeding the same period last year. Infrastructure investment growth has been negative for two consecutive months [23]. - **Demand - Real Estate**: From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, housing construction area decreased by 9.3%, new housing construction area decreased by 19.5%, commercial housing sales area decreased by 4.7%, and housing completion area decreased by 17% [26]. - **Demand - Manufacturing**: From January to August 2025, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was - 1.3%, and in July it was - 0.3%, contracting for two consecutive months. In September 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [33]. - **Demand - Import and Export**: From January to August 2025, China exported 77.49 million tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 10%, and imported 3.98 million tons of steel, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. The net steel export was 73.51 million tons, an increase of 7.56 million tons or 11.5%. Steel billet exports were 9.24 million tons, an increase of 6.88 million tons or 292% [37]. - **Supply**: From January to August 2025, China's pig iron output was 579.07 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; crude steel output was 671.81 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.8%; rebar output was 128.68 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.3%. In August, rebar output was 15.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.6% [38][43]. - **Profit**: The immediate profits of long - and short - process rebar steel mills declined. According to Mysteel research, the profitability rate of 247 sample steel mills decreased slowly, and the latest data was 58.01%, still at a high level in recent years. The long - process profit per ton of steel was 139 yuan, and the short - process profit per ton of steel at flat - rate electricity was - 60 yuan [46][47]. - **Supply - Demand Deduction**: The "Golden September" for steel was lackluster, and there are concerns about the "Silver October". It is expected that steel demand in October will hardly improve significantly. Steel mills may need to cut production to smoothly reduce inventory. Once the hot metal output declines, the supply - demand of raw materials will turn loose [50][52]. 03 Strategy: Prices Weak First and Then Strong, Wait for Opportunities to Go Long - **Futures Valuation**: As prices declined at the end of September, rebar futures prices were lower than the valley - rate electricity cost of electric arc furnaces and the long - process cost, with a relatively low static valuation [54]. - **Strategy**: In September, black prices showed a reverse N - shaped trend and closed down month - on - month. In October, steel demand is expected to be difficult to improve significantly. Steel mills may need to cut production to reduce inventory. Once the hot metal output declines, the supply - demand of raw materials will turn loose. Due to low valuation, the decline space of finished products is limited, while raw materials have relatively high valuation and greater downward pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around the low point in early September. It is expected that prices will be weak first and then strong in October. Focus on opportunities to go long on rebar RB2601 around 3000, with signals including continuous inventory reduction of steel products or the emergence of macro - positive news [56][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Yesterday, influenced by the expectation of crude steel production reduction in the 2025 - 2026 steel industry's stable - growth plan, steel prices strengthened slightly, but the night - session performance was weak. Weekly data shows an increase in steel production, low off - season apparent demand, and inventory accumulation. Considering the seasonality of rebar demand, it is expected that the apparent demand for rebar will rise during the peak season, driving up the apparent demand for the five major steel products. With the expectation of supply - side contraction and steel demand not stalling and coking coal not resuming production, steel prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed an oscillatory rebound. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased from a high level, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined. However, based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume will increase periodically. On the demand side, last week, the steel mills' profit margins were at a relatively high level. During the Tangshan military parade, production restrictions and maintenance increased slightly, and the molten iron output decreased slightly from a high level but remained around 240,000 tons per day. The impact of production restrictions will be reflected in the molten iron output next week. The data of the five major steel products shows that the recent increase in steel production and apparent demand supports iron ore. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mills' equity ore inventory decreased. Looking ahead, the molten iron output will decline slightly before and after the military parade, but the impact is not significant. Currently, there is no strong driving force for a sharp rise in the fundamentals. Since the steel mills' profit margins are still high, the molten iron output in September will remain at a high level. On the 28th, the steel industry's stable - growth work plan was released, proposing to strictly prohibit new production capacity and implement production reduction to control the total volume, driving the resonance rise of black - series products. Strategically, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the short - term and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3][5]. Coke Industry - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coke futures showed an oscillatory rebound, with recent prices fluctuating sharply. The coke spot price increase was implemented, and the port trade quotes followed the increase. On the supply side, due to the implementation of price increases, the coking profit improved. However, due to production restrictions in Hebei, Henan, etc., the coking enterprises' operation rate decreased slightly. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased from a high level, but downstream demand still had resilience. In terms of inventory, the coking plants, ports, and steel mills all had a slight inventory increase, and the overall inventory was at a medium level. Due to tight supply - demand and logistics factors, downstream steel mills still had inventory replenishment needs, and the delayed arrival of goods was the reason for the recent strength of the coke spot. Tangshan's production restrictions are beneficial to finished steel products, and Shandong and Henan also have production - restriction requirements for coking. In the short term, the tight supply - demand situation will be maintained, but as the coking profit improves, the coke supply will gradually become more abundant. The steel industry's stable - growth work plan was released, driving the resonance rise of black - series products. Speculatively, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke is recommended [6]. Coking Coal Industry - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coking coal futures showed an oscillatory rebound, with recent prices fluctuating sharply. The spot auction prices were stable with a weak trend, and the Mongolian coal quotes were weakly stable. On the spot side, the recent domestic coking coal auctions have weakened. After the price rose to a high level, the downstream procurement willingness decreased, and some coal types declined. Currently, the overall situation is weakly stable. On the supply side, due to recent mine accidents and coal mine shutdowns for rectification, the coal mine operation rate decreased slightly month - on - month, sales slowed down, and some coal mines started to accumulate inventory. In terms of imported coal, the Mongolian coal price followed the futures price down. Due to the high price, the downstream users' inventory replenishment has been cautious recently. On the demand side, due to the pre - parade production restrictions in Tangshan's steel industry and coking production restrictions in Shandong and Henan, the coking operation rate decreased slightly, and the downstream molten iron output decreased slightly from a high level. In terms of inventory, the coal mines, ports, and border crossings had a slight inventory increase, while the coal washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills had a slight inventory decrease. The overall inventory decreased slightly from a medium level. The spot market weakened after a slight correction and is currently weakly stable. The near - month contract is approaching delivery, and the warehouse - receipt delivery exerts some pressure on the 09 contract. The far - month valuation is still at a premium compared to the near - month Mongolian coal warehouse receipt. The Fujian Datian mine accident and the production - restriction expectations caused by the shutdown of individual coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi drove a sharp rise on Monday, but the spot market remains weakly stable. The steel industry's stable - growth work plan was released on the 28th, driving the resonance rise of black - series products. Speculatively, it is recommended to short - sell the coking coal 01 contract on rallies, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3,290 yuan/ton, 3,260 yuan/ton, and 3,400 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3,246 yuan/ton, 3,129 yuan/ton, and 3,205 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 32 yuan/ton, 18 yuan/ton, and 33 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3,410 yuan/ton, 3,360 yuan/ton, and 3,400 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3,380 yuan/ton, 3,385 yuan/ton, and 3,372 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 32 yuan/ton, 36 yuan/ton, and 31 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price was 3,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The slab price was 3,730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu's electric - arc furnace rebar was 3,346 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu's converter rebar was 3,193 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The profits of East China, North China, and South China rebar were 5 yuan/ton, - 25 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton respectively, all decreasing by 28 yuan/ton. The profits of East China, North China, and South China hot - rolled coils were - 38 yuan/ton, 75 yuan/ton, and - 38 yuan/ton respectively, with the North China profit decreasing by 18 yuan/ton and the others decreasing by 38 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output was 240,100 tons, a decrease of 700 tons (- 0.3%). The output of the five major steel products was 8.846 million tons, an increase of 65,000 tons (0.7%). The rebar output was 220,600 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons (2.8%), including an increase in electric - arc furnace output of 1,500 tons (5.0%) and an increase in converter output of 4,400 tons (2.4%). The hot - rolled coil output was 324,700 tons, a decrease of 500 tons (- 0.2%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products was 14.679 million tons, an increase of 268,000 tons (1.9%). The rebar inventory was 6.234 million tons, an increase of 164,000 tons (2.7%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 103,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons (12.6%). The apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.578 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons (0.6%). The apparent demand for rebar was 204,200 tons, an increase of 9,400 tons (4.8%). The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 320,700 tons, a decrease of 500 tons (- 0.2%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines were 812.1 yuan/ton, 828.2 yuan/ton, 840.6 yuan/ton, and 839.2 yuan/ton respectively, all increasing. The 01 - contract basis for these four types of ore increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread was - 45.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton (- 5.8%); the 9 - 1 spread was 20.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton (- 2.4%); the 1 - 5 spread was 25.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.0 yuan/ton (13.6%) [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port were 891.0 yuan/ton, 781.0 yuan/ton, 818.0 yuan/ton, and 737.0 yuan/ton respectively, all increasing. The Singapore Exchange's 62% Fe swap price was 101.8 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.1 US dollars (0.1%), and the Platts 62% Fe price was 102.5 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.5 US dollars (0.5%) [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) was 23.933 million tons, a decrease of 833,000 tons (- 3.4%). The global shipment volume (weekly) was 33.158 million tons, a decrease of 908,000 tons (- 2.7%). The national monthly import volume was 104.623 million tons, a decrease of 1.315 million tons (- 1.2%) [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 240,100 tons, a decrease of 600 tons (- 0.2%). The 45 - port daily average clearance volume (weekly) was 325,700 tons, a decrease of 8,900 tons (- 2.7%). The national monthly pig iron output was 70.797 million tons, a decrease of 1.108 million tons (- 1.5%), and the national monthly crude steel output was 79.658 million tons, a decrease of 3.526 million tons (- 4.2%) [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory (weekly, compared with Monday) was 137.9868 million tons, a decrease of 465,000 tons (- 0.3%). The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.655 million tons, a decrease of 709,000 tons (- 0.8%). The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) was 20 days, unchanged [3]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke were 1,610 yuan/ton and 1,635 yuan/ton respectively, with the latter decreasing by 11 yuan/ton (- 0.74%). The 09 and 01 contracts of coke were 1,584 yuan/ton and 1,673 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 contract decreasing by 17 yuan/ton (- 1.14%) and the 01 contract increasing by 3 yuan/ton (0.2%). The 09 and 01 basis were 52 yuan/ton and - 38 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 basis increasing by 6 yuan/ton and the 01 basis decreasing by 14 yuan/ton. The J09 - J01 spread was - 89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [6]. Production - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 64,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (- 1.4%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills was 240,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons (0.0%) [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 240,100 tons, a decrease of 600 tons (- 0.2%) [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory was 8.875 million tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons (- 0.1%). The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 65,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons (1.5%), and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 610,100 tons, an increase of 500 tons (0.1%). The port inventory was 212,100 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons (- 1.2%) [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap was - 60,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons (- 27.1%) [6]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur prime coking coal and Mongolian 5 raw coal were 1,230 yuan/ton and 1,145 yuan/ton respectively, both unchanged. The 09 and 01 contracts of coking coal were 1,020 yuan/ton and 1,175 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 contract increasing by 9 yuan/ton (0.8%) and the 01 contract increasing by 21 yuan/ton (1.8%). The 09 and 01 basis were 125 yuan/ton and - 30 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 basis decreasing by 9 yuan/ton and the 01 basis decreasing by 21 yuan/ton. The JM09 - JM01 spread was - 152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines (weekly) was 860,400 tons, an increase of 3,800 tons (0.4%), and the clean coal output was 442,700 tons, an increase of 3,400 tons (0.8%) [6]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 64,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (- 1.4%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills was 240,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons (0.0%) [6]. Inventory - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory was 117,600 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons (5.1%). The all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory was 961,300 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons (- 0.5%). The 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory was 811,900 tons, a decrease of 500 tons (- 0.1%). The port inventory was 275,400 tons, an increase of 13,900 tons (5.3%) [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai's adjustment of the property market purchase - restriction policy led to a significant rebound in black - series commodities and real - estate stocks, but the market focus has shifted to verifying downstream actual demand. For steel products, although it's the consumption peak season, due to the real - estate market still being in the bottom - building process, there are concerns that future demand recovery may fall short of expectations. For iron ore, while there is room for an increase in steel mill's molten iron output after the military parade, the current output is relatively high and terminal demand is not optimistic, so the upward space is limited. The supply is at a high level, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption peak season [2][5] - For both steel products (including rebar and hot - rolled coils) and iron ore, the recommended operation is to maintain a wait - and - see attitude, wait for price rebounds, and then choose the opportunity to short - sell at high prices [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Rebar production has decreased for the second consecutive week, with apparent demand turning from a decline to an increase. Factory inventories have increased for the third consecutive week, and social inventories have increased for the sixth consecutive week. The total output of the five major steel products has risen, total inventories have increased, and apparent demand has also increased. In the consumption peak season, apparent demand should gradually recover and total inventories are expected to decline, but due to the real - estate market situation, there are concerns about insufficient demand recovery [2] - **Technical Analysis**: After a short - term rebound with position reduction, rebar and hot - rolled coils have seen an increase in positions and a decline in prices, indicating possible short - term pressure [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, short - sell on short - term after rebounds, and avoid chasing up or selling down [2] - **Data Details**: See Table 1 in the report, including price changes of futures and spot prices, basis and spread, production, inventory, apparent demand, etc. For example, the rebar main contract closing price is 3113 yuan/ton, down 0.80% from the previous day; the national building materials steel mill rebar production is 214.65 tons, down 2.63% from the previous week; the five - major varieties social inventory is 1017.21 tons, up 2.66% from the previous week [3] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but the profit margin has回调, possibly due to the sharp increase in coke prices. The molten iron output of 247 steel mills is at a relatively high level, with limited upward space. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the arrival volume is expected to increase. The port inventory shows signs of stabilizing, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption peak season [5] - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract fluctuates repeatedly near the middle track of the daily K - line Bollinger Band, with the overall Bollinger Band opening narrowing, and the probability of medium - term oscillation is high, with limited short - term upward space [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for price rebounds, and then choose the opportunity to short - sell at high prices [5] - **Data Details**: See Table 2 in the report, including price changes of futures and spot prices, basis and spread, shipment, arrival volume, inventory, etc. For example, the DCE iron ore main contract settlement price is 776.5 yuan/dry ton, down 1.33% from the previous day; the Australian iron ore shipment is 1719 tons, up 17.93% from the previous week; the port inventory is 13845.2 tons, up 0.19% from the previous week [5] 3.3 Industry News - The US Department of Commerce issued affirmative rulings on anti - dumping and counter - vailing duties against 10 countries and regions for corrosion - resistant steel products, involving 2.9 billion US dollars of imported products [7] - In Yulin on August 26, state - owned large mines were operating normally, some private coal mines were shut down, and most coal mine inventories were at a medium level. The terminal inventory is mostly high, mainly for replenishing stocks as needed. Yulin coal prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - In July, the output of medium - thick plate rolling mills, hot - continuous rolling mills, and cold - continuous rolling mills of key statistical enterprises increased year - on - year [7] - Currently, Tangshan's steel section mills using billets are implementing production restrictions, with low operating rates and capacity utilization rates, and transportation is also restricted. Factory inventories are sufficient, but overall sales are weak, and market sentiment is mixed [8]