1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: There are expectations of a缓和 in negotiations, leading to a decline in ore prices [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: They are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon: Cost expectations are slightly rising, and bullish sentiment is high [2]. - Silicomanganese: Affected by energy information, it will have wide - range fluctuations [2][12]. - Coke: A round of price increase is expected to be implemented this week, with wide - range fluctuations [2][15]. - Coking coal: It will have wide - range fluctuations [2][16]. - Steam coal: Sentiment has weakened, and there is short - term callback pressure [2][19]. - Logs: The near - term prices are stronger than the long - term, and the positive spread is widening [2][21]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of I2605 was 813.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton (0.12%); the position was 371,421 hands, a decrease of 15,823 hands. The prices of various iron ore grades showed different changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Previous structural contradictions drove iron ore prices up. Recently, there are expectations of a缓和 in negotiations, and the driving force is expected to weaken. The 2026 government work report aims to stabilize expectations, with GDP growth adjusted to 4.5% - 5.0%. The 247 steel enterprises' daily hot metal output increased by 2.94 tons to 231.09 tons [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For RB2605, the closing price was 3,139 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.58%); the trading volume was 616,755 hands, and the position was 976,441 hands, a decrease of 99,718 hands. For HC2605, the closing price was 3,308 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.33%); the trading volume was 283,214 hands, and the position was 846,816 hands, a decrease of 72,722 hands. Spot prices in different regions showed small increases [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In February 2026, China's steel exports increased in volume and price, while imports decreased. Steel production and inventory data showed different trends in March. Diplomatic efforts were made to promote peace talks. Steel production and inventory data of key enterprises in March showed various changes. Real estate investment decreased, while industrial added value and fixed - asset investment increased [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: For ferrosilicon 2605, the closing price was 6066 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; for ferrosilicon 2607, it was 6190 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan. For silicomanganese 2605, the closing price was 6588 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; for silicomanganese 2607, it was 6632 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also changed [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Manganese ore inventory in ports changed. Some silicon - iron plants had equipment maintenance and复产. The output and capacity utilization of silicon - iron enterprises in different regions changed. A mining company raised its offer price. Some steel mills had procurement plans [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: For JM2605, the closing price was 1214 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.4%); for J2605, it was 1753.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan (0.1%). Spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had little change [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: CCI metallurgical coal index prices remained stable. The coking coal online auction had a 7% failure rate, and prices mostly declined due to the cost pressure on coke enterprises [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral outlook [18]. Steam Coal - **Fundamentals**: The prices of steam coal in different regions and ports showed different changes, and the overseas prices also had fluctuations. The long - term agreement prices in March increased slightly [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 30, the port market sentiment weakened, with upstream quotes slightly decreasing and downstream demand weak. In January - February 2026, the national raw coal output decreased slightly [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [20]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log futures contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions also had changes, and the spreads between contracts and between spot and futures changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The 2026 government work report aimed to stabilize expectations, with GDP growth adjusted to 4.5% - 5.0% [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel sector, the prices of black - series commodities are short - term bullish due to the rise in crude oil prices. The market is in a seasonal de - stocking state with increasing production and demand, but the demand expectation for this year is relatively weak. The sharp rise in crude oil prices pushes up costs, providing some support for futures prices. Technically, the futures prices are likely to maintain a bullish and volatile trend [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the market is entering the consumption peak season. Iron ore production and demand are increasing, the shipping volume is rising, and the port inventory is falling. Technically, the futures prices may start a medium - term upward trend [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market situation**: Affected by crude oil price fluctuations, the prices of thread and hot - rolled coil are volatile. The overall supply and demand in the market are recovering, with both production and demand increasing, but the demand expectation is weak [2]. - **Technical analysis**: After breaking through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, the futures prices stepped back to the lower moving average support, and are likely to maintain a bullish and volatile trend in the short term [2]. - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions with a light position and adopt a bullish and volatile trading strategy [2]. - **Data summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of thread and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of the thread steel main contract is 3154 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from the previous day [2]. - **Production**: The output of 247 sample steel mills' five major varieties has increased. The national building materials steel mill's thread steel output is 203.33 million tons, up 4.11% from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of the five major varieties in social and steel mill warehouses have decreased, while the steel billet inventory in Tangshan has increased [2]. - **Apparent demand**: The apparent demand for the five major varieties has increased by 8.82% to 868.48 million tons [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market situation**: The market is entering the consumption peak season. The iron ore production and demand are increasing, the shipping volume is rising, and the port inventory is falling. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has pushed up production costs [4]. - **Technical analysis**: The futures prices have rebounded rapidly, breaking through the upper important resistance level, and may start a medium - term upward trend [4]. - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions with a light position and adopt a bullish and volatile trading strategy [4]. - **Data summary**: - **Prices**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures have increased. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 819 yuan/dry ton, up 1.24% from the previous week [4]. - **Shipping volume**: The Australian iron ore shipping volume is 1701.2 million tons, up 4.44% from the previous week, while the Brazilian iron ore shipping volume is 495.2 million tons, down 5.24% from the previous week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory has decreased by 0.52% to 17098.4 million tons, and the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills has increased by 3.22% to 1312.15 million tons [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Coke prices in Shandong, Xingtai, and Yuncheng are planned to increase. Wet - quenched coke will be raised by 50 yuan/ton, and dry - quenched coke will be raised by 55 yuan/ton, starting from 0:00 on March 25 [6]. - If diesel prices continue to rise, iron ore mining companies may face billions of dollars in additional fuel costs [6]. - From March 16 to March 22, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China is 2383.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.1 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports is 2271.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.6 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports is 1050.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 179.8 million tons [6]. - From March 16 to March 22, 2026, the total global iron ore shipping volume is 3144.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 95.5 million tons. The total shipping volume from Australia and Brazil is 2559.4 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 95.0 million tons [7]. - In mid - March, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities is 1164 million tons, unchanged from the previous month, an increase of 61.4% from the beginning of the year, and an increase of 7.3% from the same period last year [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For the black - series commodities, affected by the sharp rise in the Middle - East tensions and the subsequent increase in crude oil prices, the prices of black - series commodities are expected to be short - term strong. The overall supply and demand in the market are recovering, with both increasing production and demand, but the inventory is still rising, and the market's demand expectation for this year is relatively weak, with a pessimistic view of the fundamentals. Technically, the futures prices have broken through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and the probability of short - term strong oscillation is high. For both steel products (thread and hot - rolled coil) and iron ore, the operation suggestion is to hold long - position orders lightly and adopt a strong - oscillation mindset [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Environment**: The sharp escalation of the Middle - East situation has led to a strong rise in crude oil prices, driving the short - term strength of black - series commodity prices. The overall supply and demand in the market are in the process of recovery, with both production and demand increasing, but the inventory is still rising. The market has relatively weak demand expectations for this year and a pessimistic view of the fundamentals. The sharp rise in crude oil has pushed up costs [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The futures prices have broken through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and the probability of short - term strong oscillation is high [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long - position orders lightly and adopt a strong - oscillation mindset [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing prices of the main contracts of thread steel and hot - rolled coil have different changes compared with the previous day and week. The spot prices of thread steel and hot - rolled coil have increased. The basis and spreads of futures contracts also show different trends [2] - **Production**: The total output of five major varieties of steel from 247 sample steel mills has increased. The output of thread steel has increased by 12.69% week - on - week, while the output of hot - rolled coil has decreased by 1.94% week - on - week. The capacity utilization and start - up rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills have increased significantly [2] - **Inventory**: The social and steel - mill inventories of five major varieties, thread steel, and hot - rolled coil have different changes. The inventory of billets in the Tangshan area has increased by 3.85% week - on - week [2] - **Demand**: The apparent demand of five major varieties, thread steel, and hot - rolled coil has increased. The 7 - day moving average of the national construction steel trading volume has decreased [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Environment**: The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. The output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills has rebounded, but the daily average molten iron output has decreased significantly. With the end of the Two Sessions and the arrival of the consumption peak season, the molten iron output will gradually recover. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased the production costs on both the supply and demand sides. The shipping volume is gradually rising to a high level, the arrival volume is increasing, and the port inventory has reached a record high [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The futures prices have rebounded rapidly, breaking through the upper important resistance level, and may start a medium - term upward trend [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long - position orders lightly and adopt a strong - oscillation mindset [4] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore have changed compared with the previous day and week. The basis and spreads of futures contracts also show different trends [4] - **Shipping**: The shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil have increased week - on - week [4] - **Inventory**: The port inventory has increased by 0.41% week - on - week, while the sintered powder ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills has decreased by 3.26% week - on - week [4] - **Production**: The daily output of iron concentrate powder from 186 national sample mines has increased by 1.65% [4] 3.3 Industry News - As of the week ending March 18, according to data from Zhaogang.com, the output and inventory of key steel products in the country have changed. The output of building materials has increased, the factory inventory has decreased, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the total inventory has decreased [7] - On March 18, Mongolia's Xiaotit company conducted an online auction of coking coal. All the 102,400 tons of coking coal on offer were sold at a price of $124 per ton [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series commodity prices are running strongly in the short - term due to the rising crude oil prices. The overall supply - demand situation of the market is recovering, with both production and demand increasing, but inventory is also rising. The market has relatively weak demand expectations for this year and a pessimistic view of the fundamentals. However, the sharp rise in crude oil has pushed up costs. Technically, the futures prices are likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short - term. For both steel products and iron ore, the operation suggestion is to hold long positions lightly and adopt a strong - volatile mindset [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: The Middle - East situation shows no sign of easing, and the crude oil price has strongly risen, driving up the short - term prices of black - series commodities. The overall supply - demand of the market is recovering, with production and demand increasing, but inventory is still rising. The market's demand expectation for this year is relatively weak, and the expectation of the fundamentals is pessimistic. The sharp rise in crude oil has pushed up costs, and the policies of the "Two Sessions" did not exceed market expectations. Technically, the futures price has broken through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and it is likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short - term [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and adopt a strong - volatile mindset [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3140 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.06%) from the previous day and up 21 yuan (0.67%) from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3299 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan (0.12%) from the previous day and up 29 yuan (0.89%) from last week [2] - **Production**: The total output of five major steel products of 247 sample steel mills increased last week. The national building material steel mill's threaded rod output was 195.30 tons, up 21.99 tons (12.69%) from last week; the hot - rolled coil output was 295.26 tons, down 5.85 tons (-1.94%) from last week [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major products was 1423.28 tons, up 20.15 tons (1.44%) from last week; the social inventory of threaded rods was 654.55 tons, up 16.80 tons (2.63%) from last week; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils was 382.31 tons, up 0.70 tons (0.18%) from last week [2] - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of five major products was 798.08 tons, up 106.73 tons (15.44%) from last week; the apparent demand of threaded rods was 176.81 tons, up 78.58 tons (80.00%) from last week; the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils was 295.36 tons, up 13.79 tons (4.90%) from last week [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. The output of five major steel products of 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, but the daily average molten iron output decreased by 64,000 tons to 2.212 million tons, with a relatively large decline. After the "Two Sessions" and with the arrival of the consumption peak season, the molten iron output will gradually recover. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased the production costs at both supply and demand ends. There are rumors that the port clearance of Newman powder and Jinbuba powder will be restricted in the spot market, causing the iron ore price to rise rapidly, which has a certain short - term impact on the market supply. With the improvement of the weather, the shipping volume has gradually recovered to a high level. The arrival volume has decreased, but the port inventory has continued to rise and reached a record high. Technically, the futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and the medium - term downward trend may end [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and adopt a strong - volatile mindset [4] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 809 yuan/dry ton, down 2.5 yuan (-0.31%) from the previous day and up 24.5 yuan (3.12%) from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous - one contract is 107.5 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.21 US dollars (-0.19%) from the previous day and up 7.48 US dollars (7.48%) from last week [4] - **Shipping Volume**: The Australian iron ore shipping volume was 16.288 million tons, up 766,000 tons (4.93%) from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipping volume was 5.226 million tons, up 530,000 tons (11.29%) from last week [4] - **Arrival and Port Clearance**: The total arrival volume of six northern ports was 12.302 million tons, down 2.343 million tons (-16.00%) from last week; the daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports was 3.3233 million tons, up 53,500 tons (1.64%) from last week [4] - **Inventory**: The total port inventory was 171.8752 million tons, up 696,600 tons (0.41%) from last week; the port trade ore inventory was 118.5278 million tons, up 725,700 tons (0.62%) from last week; the total inventory of imported sintered powder ore of 64 sample steel mills was 12.712 million tons, down 428,200 tons (-3.26%) from last week [4] 3.3 Industry News - From March 9th to March 15th, the global iron ore shipping volume was 30.488 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.51 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 24.644 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.223 million tons, and the Australian shipping volume was 18.753 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.221 million tons [6] - The total arrival volume of 47 ports in China was 23.17 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.805 million tons; the total arrival volume of 45 ports in China was 22.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.949 million tons; the total arrival volume of six northern ports was 12.302 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.343 million tons [6] - Since 10:00 on March 14, 2026, Tangshan City has lifted the level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather. Affected by this, the billet - rolling strip steel enterprises that had stopped production due to environmental protection restrictions have started to gradually arrange resumption of production [6] - Chongqing Wansheng Fuyao Glass Co., Ltd. with a production capacity of 600 tons per day started cold - repair on Sunday, and Guangzhou Fuming Glass Co., Ltd. with a production capacity of 600 tons started cold - repair on the evening of the 13th [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East situation shows no sign of easing, with crude oil prices rising strongly. Driven by this, black - series commodity prices are running strongly in the short term. Although the market's supply - demand is recovering with increasing production and demand, inventory is still rising, and the market has relatively weak expectations for this year's demand and a pessimistic view of the fundamentals. The sharp rise in crude oil has pushed up costs, and the "Two Sessions" policies did not exceed market expectations. Technically, the futures price has broken through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and it is likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the short term. For trading, it is recommended to go long with a light position on dips and be cautious about chasing up [2]. - The iron ore market is entering the consumption season. Although the daily average hot - metal output decreased last week, it is expected to gradually recover after the "Two Sessions" and with the arrival of the consumption season. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased production costs on both the supply and demand sides. Rumors of tightened liquidity in the spot market have led to an accelerated rise in iron ore prices. There are also rumors that BHP's Newman powder has been added to the spot restriction list, which has a short - term impact on market supply. With the improvement of the weather, shipments are gradually rising to a high level, and the port inventory has reached a record high. Technically, the futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and the medium - term downward trend may end. It is recommended to try to go long with a light position on dips during the price correction [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased by 0.35% and 0.40% respectively compared to the previous day, and 1.43% and 1.77% respectively compared to last week. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils also showed certain changes, with the rebar spot price in Shanghai down 0.31% from the previous day but up 0.63% from last week, and the hot - rolled coil spot price unchanged from the previous day but up 0.93% from last week [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total output of the five major varieties of the 247 sample steel mills increased last week, and the inventory continued to rise. The apparent demand rebounded from the low point of the year. The national building materials steel mill's rebar output increased by 4.97% compared to last week, while the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.75%. The social inventory of the five major varieties increased by 8.29%, and the apparent demand increased by 23.68% [2][3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long with a light position on dips and be cautious about chasing up [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Changes**: The settlement price of the main DCE iron ore contract increased by 0.45% compared to the previous day and 4.72% compared to last week. The prices of various iron ore powders in ports also showed different degrees of increase [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The market is entering the consumption season. Although the daily average hot - metal output decreased last week, it is expected to recover. The supply side is affected by rumors, and shipments are gradually rising with the improvement of the weather. The port inventory has reached a record high [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try to go long with a light position on dips during the price correction [5]. 3.3 Industry News - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports was 17187.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 69.66 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 317.90 tons, an increase of 6.82 tons; the number of ships in port was 110, a decrease of 2 [7]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.34%, a week - on - week increase of 0.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.24 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 82.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.40 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.65 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 221.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.39 tons [7]. - According to China Metallurgical News, the rebound of iron ore prices at the end of February was more of an emotional and technical repair rather than based on the improvement of supply - demand fundamentals, and the upward movement lacks a supporting basis. Under the real pressure of continuous oversupply, the upside space of iron ore prices has been firmly capped [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the US - Israel bombing of Iran, international crude oil prices have risen by over 30%, and Shanghai crude oil prices have risen by over 50%, but the performance of black - series commodities has been flat. The main reasons are inventory accumulation, small imports of Iranian iron ore, and black - series commodities being used as short - side allocations by arbitrage funds. Mid - term trading opportunities for black - series commodities include basis regression of rebar and potential catch - up rallies when arbitrage funds unwind, as well as potential price increases driven by rising crude oil prices [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Black - series Commodity Inventory - The inventory of black - series commodities is at a high level and increasing. The total inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and port iron ore is at a high level, with port iron ore inventory and port trade ore inventory hitting record highs, and the total inventory of hot - rolled coils also reaching a record high. The total inventory of the five major steel products is approaching 20 million tons and is still increasing. It is expected that the peak of the total steel inventory in this cycle will be around 22 million tons [3][7][11]. Impact of the Middle East War Situation - The impact of the Middle East war situation is mainly on the energy and chemical sectors, and the impact on black - series commodities is relatively small. Since the US - Israel bombing of Iran on February 28, crude oil prices have risen significantly, but the driving effect on black - series commodities is limited. China's imports of iron ore from Iran are relatively limited, and the interruption of Iranian iron ore supply has little impact on the overall supply [12][13]. Black - series Commodities as Short - side Allocations - Black - series commodities have become short - side allocation varieties. Due to high inventory, weak demand, and weak expectations, black - series commodities lack upward drivers, so they are used as short - side allocations by arbitrage funds and other funds [14][15]. Future Market Opportunities - In the short term, there are no good trading opportunities for black - series commodities. In the medium term, there are three main long - side trading opportunities: the basis regression of rebar, a potential catch - up rally when funds using black - series commodities as short - side allocations unwind, and a potential upward trend driven by a significant and long - term increase in crude oil prices [16][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - system commodities are currently in a state of weak supply and demand. The output and demand are at a low level, and the inventory is increasing rapidly from a low level. It is expected that downstream demand will gradually start after the Lantern Festival, and the market's demand expectation for 2026 is relatively weak. For iron ore, the market is in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. The supply is gradually recovering, and the port inventory has reached a record high [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Impact**: The attack between the US, Israel and Iran on Saturday led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices on Monday, but it had limited impact on black - system commodities [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of threaded steel from 247 sample steel mills continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The total output of the five major varieties decreased significantly, the inventory continued to increase, and the apparent demand was at the lowest level of the year [2] - **Technical Analysis**: After a sharp rebound, the futures price fell back, indicating that the upper resistance is still large. Due to the current low valuation, the downward space may be limited [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and trade cautiously [2] - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 3067 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3219 yuan/ton. The spot price of threaded steel (HRB400E 20mm, Shanghai) is 3190 yuan/ton, and the spot price of hot - rolled coil (Q235 4.75mm, Shanghai) is 3240 yuan/ton [2] - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill's threaded steel output is 165.10 tons, and the hot - rolled coil output is 309.61 tons [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties is 1295.75 tons, the social inventory of threaded steel is 567.76 tons, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coil is 357.37 tons [2] - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties is 662.5 tons, the apparent demand of threaded steel social inventory is 80.54 tons, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil social inventory is 291.31 tons [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The market is currently in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to gradually enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. Last week, the output of the five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills continued to decline, and the daily average molten iron output increased by 28,000 tons month - on - month to 2.334 million tons [4] - **Supply**: With the improvement of the weather, the shipment has gradually recovered to a high level. The arrival volume has decreased, but the port inventory has continued to rise and reached a record high [4] - **Technical Analysis**: After a short - term rebound, the futures price continued to fall back, and the medium - term downward trend is still continuing [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [4] - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 754.5 yuan/dry ton, and the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 99.26 US dollars/dry ton [4] - **Shipment**: The Australian iron ore shipment is 16.674 million tons, and the Brazilian iron ore shipment is 6.372 million tons [4] - **Inventory**: The total port inventory is 170.9196 million tons, and the port trade ore inventory is 117.1165 million tons [4] 3.3 Industry News - On March 2, 2026, at 10:00, Anshan City launched a yellow (Level III) early warning for heavy pollution weather emergency response. Currently, steel enterprises in Anshan are implementing production suspension and restriction measures, and some steel enterprises are implementing a 40% production reduction [6] - From February 23 to March 1, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 22.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 911,000 tons; the total arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports in China was 21.469 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 55,000 tons; the total arrival volume of iron ore at six northern ports was 10.328 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 51,000 tons [6] - From February 23 to March 1, 2026, the total global iron ore shipment was 33.407 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 198,000 tons. The total iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil was 26.907 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 226,000 tons. The Australian shipment was 19.484 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 623,000 tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 15.711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.38 million tons. The Brazilian shipment was 7.422 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 397,000 tons [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - For the rebar and hot-rolled coil sector, the market is currently in a holiday mode with weak supply and demand. It's expected to start up after the Lantern Festival. The market's demand expectation for 2026 is relatively weak. Although the futures prices have rebounded significantly, whether it's a reversal remains to be seen. Due to the low current valuation, the downside space may be limited [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the market is still in the holiday mode and is expected to enter the consumption peak season after the Lantern Festival. Steel and hot metal production are at seasonal lows. The supply side's short - term shipments are expected to remain low but will gradually recover. The port inventory has reached a record high. The iron ore has a technical rebound, but it's uncertain if it has bottomed out [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **News**: Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Seven Measures" to further reduce housing purchase restrictions. Some steel enterprises in North China received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the 2026 National Two Sessions, with a requirement of at least 30% reduction in blast furnace load [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Before the Spring Festival, the output of rebar from 247 sample steel mills decreased significantly, the apparent demand declined month - on - month, the total inventory continued to rise, the total output of the five major varieties decreased significantly, and the inventory continued to increase. The apparent demand is at a low level for the year [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures prices rebounded significantly, but whether it forms a reversal is uncertain. The downside space may be limited due to low valuation [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and trade cautiously [2]. - **Data**: A large amount of data on prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and apparent demand are provided, such as the rebar主力合约收盘价 at 3050 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous day and 1.64% from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The market is in the holiday mode and is expected to enter the consumption peak season after the Lantern Festival. The output of the five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills continued to decline this week, and the daily average hot metal output is expected to decrease month - on - month [4]. - **Supply**: Affected by seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere, short - term shipments are expected to remain low but will gradually recover with improved weather. The arrival volume has rebounded, and the port inventory has reached a record high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Driven by the Shanghai real - estate new policy and the rise of rebar, iron ore has a technical rebound, but it's uncertain if it has bottomed out [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [4]. - **Data**: A large amount of data on prices, basis, spreads, shipments, sea freight, inventory, etc. are provided, such as the DCE铁矿石主力合约结算价 at 762 yuan/dry ton, down 0.07% from the previous day and 0.85% from the previous week [5]. 3.3 Industry News - In January, global crude steel production decreased by 6.5% year - on - year to 147.3 million tons, and China's steel production in January decreased by 13.9% to 75.3 million tons [7]. - As of the week of February 26, rebar production decreased, factory inventory increased for six consecutive weeks, social inventory increased for eight consecutive weeks, and apparent demand increased [7]. - In mid - February 2026, key steel enterprises' production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased, and the steel inventory increased [8]. - The average national ton - coke profit of 30 independent coking plants was - 7 yuan/ton this week [8]. - As of February 26, the float glass industry's start - up rate was 70.61%, and the capacity utilization rate was 74.49%, with the daily output increasing by 0.41% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, overseas macro news caused significant disturbances, leading to sharp fluctuations in commodities and frequent movements in the black - series. The slight decline in hot metal provided some support to raw materials. With the first round of coke price increase implemented, coking coal and coke tended to fluctuate, while iron ore maintained a certain level of resilience. In the near - term, both iron ore and coking coal and coke are expected to operate with a weakening trend [3][4][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Overseas macro news caused large disturbances last week, with commodities fluctuating violently and the black - series moving frequently. The slight drop in hot metal supported raw materials, and after the first round of coke price increase, coking coal and coke fluctuated, while iron ore showed resilience [9]. 3.2 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil reached 2521 million tons (a 5.30% increase from the previous period and a 9% increase year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2484.7 million tons (a 1.79% decrease from the previous period and a 41.02% increase year - on - year) [12][16]. - **Demand**: The daily hot metal production was 227.98 million tons (a decrease of 0.12 million tons from the previous period and 0.46 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 332.31 million tons (a 6.94% increase from the previous period and a 23.69% increase year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 35.48 days (a 6.51% increase from the previous period and a 6.90% increase year - on - year) [17][20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 iron ore ports was 17022.26 million tons (a 1.53% increase from the previous period and a 10.59% increase year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9968.59 million tons (a 6.18% increase from the previous period and a 5.32% increase year - on - year). The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 28.67 days (a 9.97% increase from the previous period and a 13.10% increase year - on - year) [21][25]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The coking coal mine operation rate was 89.13% (a 0.22% decrease from the previous period and a 12.82% increase year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 36.8% (a 1.63% decrease from the previous period and a 32.14% increase year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 12.33 million tons (a 41.10% decrease from the previous period and a 7.78% decrease year - on - year) [27][31]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 55 yuan/ton (a 11 - yuan increase from the previous period and an 18 - yuan decrease year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 71.86% (a 0.76% decrease from the previous period and a 1.71% decrease year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke was 85.91% (a 0.23% increase from the previous period and a 0.43% decrease year - on - year) [34][38]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 1036.09 million tons (a 4.09% increase from the previous period and a 2.22% increase year - on - year), the coking coal inventory of steel mills was 814.12 million tons (a 1.38% increase from the previous period and a 3.99% decrease year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 286.38 million tons (a 1.04% decrease from the previous period and a 36.82% decrease year - on - year) [39][44]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 43.99 million tons (a 4.12% increase from the previous period and a 50.71% decrease year - on - year), the coke inventory of steel mills was 678.19 million tons (a 2.50% increase from the previous period and a 3.22% decrease year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 198.07 million tons (a 1.02% increase from the previous period and a 9.97% increase year - on - year) [45][50]. - **Spot Price**: The first - round coke price increase was implemented, and the game between steel and coke continued. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1630 yuan/ton (a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous week and a 230 - yuan increase year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1390 yuan/ton (a 50 - yuan increase from the previous period and a 120 - yuan decrease year - on - year) [51][53]. 3.4 Spread Analysis - The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar fluctuated within a narrow range, and the 5 - 9 spread of coking coal and coke fluctuated [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore: There is still rigid demand, and the price fluctuates [2][4]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Wide-range fluctuations [2][6]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The raw material prices are loosening in the short term, with wide-range fluctuations [2][10]. - Coke and coking coal: With the combination of industry and funds, they fluctuate within a range [2][13][14]. - Steam coal: Supply and demand tend to be weak, and the coal price stabilizes with a slight upward exploration [2][18]. - Logs: Fluctuate within a range [2][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of I2605 was 788.0 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.45%. The positions increased by 2,878 hands to 571,053 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) rose 4.0 yuan/ton to 879.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 20, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, remaining unchanged from the previous month [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,126 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.79%; the closing price of HC2605 was 3,289 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.60%. The positions of RB2605 decreased by 16,197 hands to 1,714,659 hands, and those of HC2605 decreased by 6,369 hands to 1,508,428 hands [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In mid-January 2026, key steel enterprises produced 1979 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 197.9 million tons, a 0.9% decrease in daily output month-on-month; 1794 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 179.4 million tons, a 1.8% increase in daily output month-on-month; and 1877 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 187.7 million tons, a 3.0% increase in daily output month-on-month. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 1613 million tons, a 7.3% increase from the previous ten-day period [7]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2603 was 5604 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the closing price of ferrosilicon 2605 was 5586 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan. The closing price of silicomanganese 2603 was 5780 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the closing price of silicomanganese 2605 was 5818 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 27, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton, and that of 75 ferrosilicon in Ningxia was 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton (+50). The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton (-25) [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1116.5 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan or 3.7%; the closing price of J2605 was 1668 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan or 3.0%. The positions of JM2605 increased by 20760 hands to 513166 hands, and those of J2605 increased by 1859 hands to 38429 hands [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 27, the CCI metallurgical coal index: CCI Shanxi low-sulfur main coking coal S0.7 was 1627 (-); CCI Shanxi medium-sulfur main coking coal S1.3 was 1260 (-); CCI Shanxi high-sulfur main coking coal S1.6 was 1249 (-). The online auction listing volume of coking coal was 15.81 million tons, with a non - sale rate of 32%, a 12% decrease from the previous day, and an average premium of 31.18 yuan/ton [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [17]. Steam Coal - **Fundamentals**: The price of Datong南郊 steam coal Q5500 was 564.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan month-on-month and down 58.0 yuan year-on-year. The price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 was 605.0 yuan/ton, unchanged month-on-month and down 11.0 yuan year-on-year [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 27, the port market maintained a stable and slightly stronger trend. The port inventory continued to decline. Some market participants believed that as non - power industries gradually took holidays, the demand support might gradually weaken, and the market would tend to run stably later [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Not provided in the report. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the 2603 contract was 775.5 yuan, down 0.1% day - on - day and up 1.5% week - on - week. The trading volume of the 2603 contract was 3684, down 27.3% day - on - day and down 56% week - on - week [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December RatingDog comprehensive PMI was 51.3, exceeding the 50.0 boom - bust line, slightly up from 51.2 in November [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [22].