螺纹：价格先弱后强 等待做多机会 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-10-09 【产业服务总部 | 黑色产业服务中心】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 十月观点：价格先弱后强 等待做多机会 逻辑：从各项投资数据来看，预计十月钢材需求也很难有明显好转，可能需要钢厂减产，库存才能顺畅去化，一旦铁水产量下滑， 原料供需会转向宽松。支撑因素在于，一是钢材静态估值处于偏低水平，螺纹钢期货已经低于电炉谷电成本与长流程成本，二是宏观 预期仍然向好，10月即将召开二十届四中全会，涉及"十五五"规划，此外，本轮反内卷持续时间长，反内卷预期会被反复交易。 策略： 低估值下，成材下跌空间比较有限，原料在黑色系中估值偏高，下行压力相对较大，关注9月初的低点附近支撑。预计10 月价格先弱后强，螺纹RB2601重点关注3000附近做多机会，信号上需要看到钢材库存持续去化或者宏观利好出现。 | 螺纹月度涨跌 | 1月 | 2月 | 3月 | 4月 | 5月 | 6月 | 7月 | 8月 | 9月 | 10月 | 11月 | 12月 | | --- | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Yesterday, influenced by the expectation of crude steel production reduction in the 2025 - 2026 steel industry's stable - growth plan, steel prices strengthened slightly, but the night - session performance was weak. Weekly data shows an increase in steel production, low off - season apparent demand, and inventory accumulation. Considering the seasonality of rebar demand, it is expected that the apparent demand for rebar will rise during the peak season, driving up the apparent demand for the five major steel products. With the expectation of supply - side contraction and steel demand not stalling and coking coal not resuming production, steel prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed an oscillatory rebound. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased from a high level, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined. However, based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume will increase periodically. On the demand side, last week, the steel mills' profit margins were at a relatively high level. During the Tangshan military parade, production restrictions and maintenance increased slightly, and the molten iron output decreased slightly from a high level but remained around 240,000 tons per day. The impact of production restrictions will be reflected in the molten iron output next week. The data of the five major steel products shows that the recent increase in steel production and apparent demand supports iron ore. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mills' equity ore inventory decreased. Looking ahead, the molten iron output will decline slightly before and after the military parade, but the impact is not significant. Currently, there is no strong driving force for a sharp rise in the fundamentals. Since the steel mills' profit margins are still high, the molten iron output in September will remain at a high level. On the 28th, the steel industry's stable - growth work plan was released, proposing to strictly prohibit new production capacity and implement production reduction to control the total volume, driving the resonance rise of black - series products. Strategically, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the short - term and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3][5]. Coke Industry - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coke futures showed an oscillatory rebound, with recent prices fluctuating sharply. The coke spot price increase was implemented, and the port trade quotes followed the increase. On the supply side, due to the implementation of price increases, the coking profit improved. However, due to production restrictions in Hebei, Henan, etc., the coking enterprises' operation rate decreased slightly. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased from a high level, but downstream demand still had resilience. In terms of inventory, the coking plants, ports, and steel mills all had a slight inventory increase, and the overall inventory was at a medium level. Due to tight supply - demand and logistics factors, downstream steel mills still had inventory replenishment needs, and the delayed arrival of goods was the reason for the recent strength of the coke spot. Tangshan's production restrictions are beneficial to finished steel products, and Shandong and Henan also have production - restriction requirements for coking. In the short term, the tight supply - demand situation will be maintained, but as the coking profit improves, the coke supply will gradually become more abundant. The steel industry's stable - growth work plan was released, driving the resonance rise of black - series products. Speculatively, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke is recommended [6]. Coking Coal Industry - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coking coal futures showed an oscillatory rebound, with recent prices fluctuating sharply. The spot auction prices were stable with a weak trend, and the Mongolian coal quotes were weakly stable. On the spot side, the recent domestic coking coal auctions have weakened. After the price rose to a high level, the downstream procurement willingness decreased, and some coal types declined. Currently, the overall situation is weakly stable. On the supply side, due to recent mine accidents and coal mine shutdowns for rectification, the coal mine operation rate decreased slightly month - on - month, sales slowed down, and some coal mines started to accumulate inventory. In terms of imported coal, the Mongolian coal price followed the futures price down. Due to the high price, the downstream users' inventory replenishment has been cautious recently. On the demand side, due to the pre - parade production restrictions in Tangshan's steel industry and coking production restrictions in Shandong and Henan, the coking operation rate decreased slightly, and the downstream molten iron output decreased slightly from a high level. In terms of inventory, the coal mines, ports, and border crossings had a slight inventory increase, while the coal washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills had a slight inventory decrease. The overall inventory decreased slightly from a medium level. The spot market weakened after a slight correction and is currently weakly stable. The near - month contract is approaching delivery, and the warehouse - receipt delivery exerts some pressure on the 09 contract. The far - month valuation is still at a premium compared to the near - month Mongolian coal warehouse receipt. The Fujian Datian mine accident and the production - restriction expectations caused by the shutdown of individual coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi drove a sharp rise on Monday, but the spot market remains weakly stable. The steel industry's stable - growth work plan was released on the 28th, driving the resonance rise of black - series products. Speculatively, it is recommended to short - sell the coking coal 01 contract on rallies, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3,290 yuan/ton, 3,260 yuan/ton, and 3,400 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3,246 yuan/ton, 3,129 yuan/ton, and 3,205 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 32 yuan/ton, 18 yuan/ton, and 33 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3,410 yuan/ton, 3,360 yuan/ton, and 3,400 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3,380 yuan/ton, 3,385 yuan/ton, and 3,372 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 32 yuan/ton, 36 yuan/ton, and 31 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price was 3,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The slab price was 3,730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu's electric - arc furnace rebar was 3,346 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu's converter rebar was 3,193 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The profits of East China, North China, and South China rebar were 5 yuan/ton, - 25 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton respectively, all decreasing by 28 yuan/ton. The profits of East China, North China, and South China hot - rolled coils were - 38 yuan/ton, 75 yuan/ton, and - 38 yuan/ton respectively, with the North China profit decreasing by 18 yuan/ton and the others decreasing by 38 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output was 240,100 tons, a decrease of 700 tons (- 0.3%). The output of the five major steel products was 8.846 million tons, an increase of 65,000 tons (0.7%). The rebar output was 220,600 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons (2.8%), including an increase in electric - arc furnace output of 1,500 tons (5.0%) and an increase in converter output of 4,400 tons (2.4%). The hot - rolled coil output was 324,700 tons, a decrease of 500 tons (- 0.2%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products was 14.679 million tons, an increase of 268,000 tons (1.9%). The rebar inventory was 6.234 million tons, an increase of 164,000 tons (2.7%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 103,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons (12.6%). The apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.578 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons (0.6%). The apparent demand for rebar was 204,200 tons, an increase of 9,400 tons (4.8%). The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 320,700 tons, a decrease of 500 tons (- 0.2%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines were 812.1 yuan/ton, 828.2 yuan/ton, 840.6 yuan/ton, and 839.2 yuan/ton respectively, all increasing. The 01 - contract basis for these four types of ore increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread was - 45.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton (- 5.8%); the 9 - 1 spread was 20.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton (- 2.4%); the 1 - 5 spread was 25.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.0 yuan/ton (13.6%) [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port were 891.0 yuan/ton, 781.0 yuan/ton, 818.0 yuan/ton, and 737.0 yuan/ton respectively, all increasing. The Singapore Exchange's 62% Fe swap price was 101.8 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.1 US dollars (0.1%), and the Platts 62% Fe price was 102.5 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.5 US dollars (0.5%) [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) was 23.933 million tons, a decrease of 833,000 tons (- 3.4%). The global shipment volume (weekly) was 33.158 million tons, a decrease of 908,000 tons (- 2.7%). The national monthly import volume was 104.623 million tons, a decrease of 1.315 million tons (- 1.2%) [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 240,100 tons, a decrease of 600 tons (- 0.2%). The 45 - port daily average clearance volume (weekly) was 325,700 tons, a decrease of 8,900 tons (- 2.7%). The national monthly pig iron output was 70.797 million tons, a decrease of 1.108 million tons (- 1.5%), and the national monthly crude steel output was 79.658 million tons, a decrease of 3.526 million tons (- 4.2%) [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory (weekly, compared with Monday) was 137.9868 million tons, a decrease of 465,000 tons (- 0.3%). The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.655 million tons, a decrease of 709,000 tons (- 0.8%). The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) was 20 days, unchanged [3]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke were 1,610 yuan/ton and 1,635 yuan/ton respectively, with the latter decreasing by 11 yuan/ton (- 0.74%). The 09 and 01 contracts of coke were 1,584 yuan/ton and 1,673 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 contract decreasing by 17 yuan/ton (- 1.14%) and the 01 contract increasing by 3 yuan/ton (0.2%). The 09 and 01 basis were 52 yuan/ton and - 38 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 basis increasing by 6 yuan/ton and the 01 basis decreasing by 14 yuan/ton. The J09 - J01 spread was - 89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [6]. Production - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 64,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (- 1.4%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills was 240,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons (0.0%) [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 240,100 tons, a decrease of 600 tons (- 0.2%) [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory was 8.875 million tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons (- 0.1%). The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 65,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons (1.5%), and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 610,100 tons, an increase of 500 tons (0.1%). The port inventory was 212,100 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons (- 1.2%) [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap was - 60,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons (- 27.1%) [6]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur prime coking coal and Mongolian 5 raw coal were 1,230 yuan/ton and 1,145 yuan/ton respectively, both unchanged. The 09 and 01 contracts of coking coal were 1,020 yuan/ton and 1,175 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 contract increasing by 9 yuan/ton (0.8%) and the 01 contract increasing by 21 yuan/ton (1.8%). The 09 and 01 basis were 125 yuan/ton and - 30 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 basis decreasing by 9 yuan/ton and the 01 basis decreasing by 21 yuan/ton. The JM09 - JM01 spread was - 152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines (weekly) was 860,400 tons, an increase of 3,800 tons (0.4%), and the clean coal output was 442,700 tons, an increase of 3,400 tons (0.8%) [6]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 64,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (- 1.4%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills was 240,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons (0.0%) [6]. Inventory - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory was 117,600 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons (5.1%). The all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory was 961,300 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons (- 0.5%). The 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory was 811,900 tons, a decrease of 500 tons (- 0.1%). The port inventory was 275,400 tons, an increase of 13,900 tons (5.3%) [6].

山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年08月27日08时33分 报告导读： 上海调整楼市限购政策，带动黑色系商品和房地产股大幅反弹 ，但市场的焦点已经转为验证下游的实际需求情况 。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据 显示，螺纹钢产量连续第二周减少，表需由降转增，厂库连续第三周增加，社库连续第六周增加。其中螺纹表需194.80万吨，较上周增加4.86万吨 。五大品种总产量上升，总库存上升，表观需求有所增加。从需求的季节性规律看，进入消费旺季后，表观需求应逐步回升，总库存有望逐步下降 。由于目前房地产仍处震荡筑底过程中 ，市场担忧未来需求的恢复仍有可能不及预期 。从技术上看，螺纹和热卷在短暂减仓反弹后，又出现增仓下 行的状况，或预示近期仍将承压。 投资咨询系列报告 操作建议： 维持观望，反弹之后可短线做空，不可追涨杀跌。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3113 | -25 | -0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Mid - to Long - term**: The speculative sentiment in the black - series commodity market has significantly cooled this week, with a mainly oscillating and weakening trend. The capital availability rate of construction sites has slightly increased by 0.27 percentage points but decreased by 3.36 percentage points compared to the previous period. The real - estate sector recovers slowly, and the steel demand side remains under continuous pressure. Steel supply is expected to shrink, but the short - term fundamental improvement is limited. The daily average hot - metal output has slightly increased, while the overseas ore shipment volume and the arrival volume at China's main ports have decreased. Future steel mill production restrictions are expected to affect the iron ore demand side. For glass and soda ash, the float glass start - up rate and weekly output are flat compared to last week, with continuous inventory accumulation and a weak supply - demand fundamental. Soda ash supply remains high, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change [69][73]. - **Short - term**: The main contracts of black - series commodities have shown an oscillating and weakening trend recently. Attention should be paid to the implementation of subsequent policies and real - estate data, and cautious and light - position operations are recommended. The main contracts of glass and soda ash have mainly oscillated within a range this week, and short - term band operations are recommended [70][74]. 3. Summary by Directory Black - series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Contract | Closing Price on 2025/8/8 | Closing Price on 2025/8/15 | Change | Percentage Change (%) | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | RB2510 | 3213 | 3188 | - 25 | - 0.78 | 3320 | 132 | | Hot - rolled coil | HC2510 | 3428 | 3439 | 11 | 0.32 | 3460 | 21 | | Iron ore | I2601 | 774 | 776 | 2.5 | 0.32 | 784 | 8 | | Coke | J2601 | 1734 | 1730 | - 4.5 | - 0.26 | 1620 | - 110 | | Coking coal | JM2601 | 1227 | 1230 | 3.0 | 0.24 | 1350 | 120 | | Glass | FG601 | 1196 | 1211 | 15 | 1.25 | 1250 | 39 | | Soda ash | SA601 | 1332 | 1395 | 63 | 4.73 | 1326 | - 69 | [3] Rebar - **Blast Furnace Profit**: On August 14, the rebar blast furnace profit was reported at 131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton compared to August 7 [7]. - **Supply Side**: As of August 15, the blast furnace start - up rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons; the rebar output was 220.45 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons [15]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of August 15, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 1.8994 million tons, a decrease of 208,500 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 14, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 83,767 tons [20]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 4.1493 million tons, an increase of 264,500 tons compared to the previous week; the in - plant inventory was reported at 1.7226 million tons, an increase of 40,600 tons [25]. Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 8, the global shipment volume of iron ore was reported at 3.0467 million tons, a decrease of 15,100 tons compared to the previous week; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was reported at 2.5716 million tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons [30]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 14.38157 million tons, an increase of 114,300 tons compared to the previous week; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was reported at 9.1364 million tons, an increase of 123,060 tons [33]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of August 15, the daily average ore - unloading volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 346,800 tons, an increase of 103,500 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 14, the trading volume at main ports in China was reported at 130,200 tons [38]. Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 15, the number of operating float glass production lines was 223, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1,117,025 tons, the same as last week. As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of float glass was 79.78%, the same as last week; the start - up rate of float glass was 75.34%, the same as last week [43]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the in - plant inventory of float glass was reported at 63.426 million weight boxes, an increase of 1.579 million weight boxes compared to August 8; the available days of in - plant inventory were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days compared to the previous week [48]. - **Demand Side**: As of July 31, the order days of downstream glass deep - processing manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared to July 15 [52]. Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 15, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 87.32%, an increase of 1.91 percentage points compared to last week; the output was 761,300 tons, an increase of 18,400 tons compared to last week [57]. - **In - plant Inventory**: As of August 15, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was reported at 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 28,700 tons compared to August 8 [62]. - **Production and Sales Rate**: As of August 15, the production and sales rate of soda ash was reported at 96.23%, an increase of 5.54 percentage points compared to August 1 [66].

Summary of Conference Call on Black Commodity Market Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the black commodity market, focusing on coal, coke, and steel products, particularly in the context of recent market fluctuations and future expectations [1][2][27]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Dynamics**: The current price differences in black commodities are driven by the interplay between expectations and reality, with significant pressure from warehouse receipts [1][3]. 2. **Third Quarter Outlook**: The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in the third quarter, influenced heavily by increased production from high-speed rail water [4][6]. 3. **Demand Verification**: The fourth quarter may revert to demand logic, necessitating verification of subsequent demand trends [6]. 4. **Low Inventory Impact**: Low inventory levels are crucial in supporting the industry, as all segments will replenish stock during price adjustments, reducing the pressure for price declines [7]. 5. **Export Opportunities**: Domestic price corrections have led to increased overseas demand, with export advantages when prices fall below 3,300 RMB/ton [8]. 6. **Steel Mill Orders**: Steel mills have secured orders covering August and September, limiting the incentive for price reductions despite administrative production limits [9]. 7. **Coking Coal Supply Constraints**: The coking coal market faces supply constraints due to low coal mine operating rates, providing strong bottom support for prices [10][34]. 8. **Coke Market Stability**: The fifth round of price increases for coke has been accepted, with production cuts and unfulfilled output expectations maintaining bullish sentiment [11]. 9. **August and September Trends**: August is viewed as a bullish month, while September may see a pullback if demand does not meet expectations [12]. 10. **Arbitrage Logic**: The arbitrage logic between rebar and wire rod remains intact, with potential strategies suggested for trading [13]. 11. **Steel Export Dynamics**: Recent changes in steel export opportunities have been noted, with pressure expected to remain manageable in the short term [14][21]. 12. **Policy Impact**: The political landscape and policy decisions, particularly regarding supply-side adjustments, are influencing market expectations and price stability [28][36]. 13. **Iron Ore Supply and Demand**: The iron ore market is currently in a tight balance, with supply issues affecting valuations and future price movements [30][31][32]. 14. **Price Predictions**: Future price ranges for iron ore and rebar are projected to be between 700-830 RMB/ton and 3,100-3,400 RMB/ton, respectively [23][29]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment in the market is cautious, with uncertainty about whether the upward trend from the third quarter will continue into the fourth quarter [36]. - **Potential Risks**: The volatility in the coking coal market poses risks, necessitating close monitoring of supply and policy changes [35]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The overall outlook for black commodities remains focused on policy influences and macroeconomic conditions, with a need for careful observation of inventory levels and demand trends [28][36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term macro enters a window period, the black series maintains a high - level consolidation cycle. The support from foreign ore supply weakens marginally. In August, foreign ore shipments gradually recover. Considering the current high blast furnace profits and the off - season but non - weak terminal demand, domestic demand is expected to remain relatively high in the short term. The supply and demand of iron ore are in a stage of balance, and port inventories tend to be stable or rise slightly. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate at a high level. The i2601 contract price will range from 745 yuan/ton to 780 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE09 contract price will range from 98.5 to 103 US dollars/ton [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - The short - term supply support weakens marginally. Foreign ore shipments will gradually enter a seasonal recovery cycle. After the maintenance period of BHP and FMG mines in Australia ends, their shipments recover, while Brazilian shipments weaken this period. The short - term arrival volume rebounds from a low level, increasing the immediate supply pressure [2] Demand - The domestic average daily hot metal output has declined for two consecutive weeks with an expanding decline. The current average daily hot metal output is 240.71 (a month - on - month decrease of 1.52). However, the current profitability rate of steel mills continues to rise, and the blast furnace profit level is relatively considerable. Short - term iron ore demand remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether the hot metal output can remain at a high level in the later stage [2] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at the steel mill end remains high. Due to the continuous rise in iron ore prices, steel mills continue to replenish their stocks. As the arrival volume drops to a relatively low - middle level, port inventories have significantly declined this period. In the future, with the recovery of shipments and the marginal weakening of hot metal output, it is expected that short - term inventories will generally tend to be stable or rise slightly [2]

Group 1 - The black commodity prices have significantly declined this week due to a retreat in market bullish sentiment, with coking coal futures dropping by 7.34% on the first trading day of August and a cumulative decline of nearly 20% for the week [1] - In the coal-coke-steel industry chain, coking coal prices have shown a strong upward trend, with the main factory price for Shanxi coking coal rising by 110 yuan/ton to a range of 1410 to 1480 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 8.24% compared to the previous week [3] - The overall steel market has experienced a rebound in July, with the national steel price averaging 3677 yuan/ton, an increase of 247 yuan/ton or 7.2% month-on-month [4] Group 2 - Analysts expect that infrastructure investment growth will remain resilient in August, driven by increased fiscal support and the commencement of major projects, which may lead to improved supply-demand dynamics in the steel market [5] - Despite the recent price increases, there are concerns about demand sustainability, as social steel inventories have risen by 7.8% month-on-month to 859.9 million tons by the end of July [4] - The market is anticipated to experience a correction in August due to rapid price increases, with potential for a rebound following the implementation of relevant policy measures [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Mid - to long - term: After continuous increases due to policy speculation, black - series commodities mainly showed a volatile correction this week. Market sentiment cooled, and the market logic gradually returned to fundamentals. For steel mills, the profitability rate continued to increase, daily hot metal output continued to decline, and overseas ore shipments rebounded. For glass, the start - up rate was flat with last week, and in - plant inventory continued to decline, but the fundamental changes were limited. For soda ash, production decreased month - on - month, but the oversupply situation continued, and the supply - demand fundamentals were poor, with recent fluctuations mainly following the chemical sector. Attention should be paid to the release and implementation of relevant policies [51][55]. - Short - term: The main contracts of black - series commodities had sharp price fluctuations recently, and it was recommended to operate with caution and light positions. The main contracts of glass and soda ash closed significantly lower this week, and short - term cautious observation was recommended [52][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black - Series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Futures Closing Price Change | Futures Price Change Rate | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar (RB2510) | - 89 (from 3294 to 3205) | - 2.70% | 3370 | 165 | | Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510) | - 66 (from 3456 to 3390) | - 1.91% | 3410 | 20 | | Iron Ore (I2509) | - 32 (from 811 to 779) | - 3.95% | 779 | 0 | | Coke (J2509) | - 134 (from 1735 to 1601) | - 7.72% | 1520 | - 81 | | Coking Coal (JM2509) | - 153 (from 1199 to 1046) | - 12.77% | 1250 | 205 | | Glass (FG509) | - 190 (from 1307 to 1117) | - 14.54% | 1320 | 203 | | Soda Ash (SA509) | - 161 (from 1408 to 1247) | - 11.43% | 1359 | 112 | [3] 3.2 Rebar - Profit: On July 31, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was 227 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton compared to July 24 [7]. - Supply: As of August 1, the blast - furnace start - up rate was 83.46% (unchanged), the electric - furnace start - up rate was 62.82% (+0.64), daily hot metal output was 240.71 tons (- 1.52), and rebar production was 2.1106 million tons (- 0.9) [12]. - Demand: In the week of August 1, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.0341 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 131,700 tons; the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 78,119 tons [16]. - Inventory: In the week of August 1, the social inventory of rebar was 3.8414 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 111,700 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.6215 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,200 tons [20]. 3.3 Float Glass - Supply: As of August 1, the number of float - glass production lines in operation was 222 (unchanged from last week), weekly output was 1,115,225 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7050 tons). As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate was 79.78% (a month - on - month increase of 0.3 percentage points), and the start - up rate was 75% (unchanged from last week) [25]. - Inventory: On August 1, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 59.499 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.397 million weight boxes compared to July 25; the available days of in - plant inventory were 25.5 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 days [30]. - Demand: As of July 31, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared to July 15 [34]. 3.4 Soda Ash - Supply: In the week of August 1, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.27%, a decrease of 2.75 percentage points compared to last week; production was 699,800 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons compared to last week [39]. - Inventory: As of August 1, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 68,800 tons compared to July 25 [44]. - Production and Sales Rate: As of August 1, the production - sales rate of soda ash was 109.83%, an increase of 4.17 percentage points compared to July 25 [48].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the black commodities market and the potential continuation of a strong market trend, featuring insights from a seasoned trader and founder of "Boundary Theory" [1] Group 1 - The black commodities sector is experiencing fluctuations, raising questions about the sustainability of the current strong market trend [1] - A live analysis session is being conducted by a trader with 9 years of practical trading experience, focusing on industry dynamics and future trends of black commodities [1]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The recent increase in steel prices was triggered by factors such as coal environmental inspections in June, the "anti - involution" trading in July, and expectations from the "New Urbanization" conference. The weekly steel data on July 11 showed that production decreased with apparent demand, and inventory remained stable, indicating a balanced supply - demand situation in July. The market sentiment improved, leading to better spot demand due to traders' restocking. Future market trends depend on the tone of the Politburo meeting at the end of July and the valuation fluctuations in the futures market. The reference range for the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3150 - 3300, and for rebar is 3050 - 3150 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Steel prices generally increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3160 to 3190 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil in East China increased from 3230 to 3280 yuan/ton. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts also went up [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and some steel production processes changed. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, and the profit of rebar also showed a downward trend in some areas [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.4% to 240.8 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 1.4% to 872.7 tons. Rebar production decreased by 2.0% to 216.7 tons, while the electric - furnace production of rebar increased by 4.2% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products remained almost unchanged, with a slight decrease in rebar inventory by 0.9% and a 0.2% increase in hot - rolled coil inventory [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 30.4% to 11.5 tons, but the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.4%, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 1.5% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The 09 iron ore futures contract showed a strong upward trend. Although the terminal demand may weaken in the off - season, the current strong steel exports support the pig iron production. In the short term, iron ore will fluctuate with a slight upward trend, but in the long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract at low prices and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [3]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices increased. For example, the cost of PB powder warehouse receipts rose from 766.7 to 792.0 yuan/ton, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port increased from 725.0 to 748.0 yuan/ton. The 09 contract basis of some iron ore varieties decreased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.7% [3]. - **Supply**: The global weekly iron ore shipment volume decreased by 10.8% to 2994.9 tons, while the 45 - port weekly arrival volume increased by 5.1% to 2483.9 tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 tons, and the 45 - port daily average ore - clearing volume decreased by 2.0%. However, the national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.4%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.8%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.3% [3]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Both coke and coking coal futures showed an upward - fluctuating trend, and the spot market was stable with a slight upward tendency. For coke, after the fourth round of price cuts in June, the market expected the first - round price increase to be implemented. For coking coal, the domestic coking coal auction market improved, and the overall market showed a bottom - rebound trend. It is recommended to conduct short - selling hedging on the coke 2601 contract, go long on the coke 2509 contract at low prices after a pull - back, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage for both coke and coking coal [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts increased. For example, the coke 09 contract rose from 1456 to 1497 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 09 contract increased from 872 to 897 yuan/ton. The basis of some contracts decreased [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average coke production of the full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 64.1 tons, and that of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6%. The raw coal and clean coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 tons. The demand for coke and coking coal was affected by environmental restrictions in Tangshan [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased slightly, with a significant decrease in the coking plant's coke inventory and increases in steel mills' and port inventories. The coking coal inventory of coal mines decreased, while that of coking plants and ports increased [6]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The calculated supply - demand gap of coke increased slightly by 2.9% to - 5.4 tons [6].