投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年03月03日08时21分 报告导读： 请务必阅读文后重要声明 第 1 页，共 3 页 报告导读： 周六美以对伊发动袭击，周一开盘，原油价格大幅拉升，但对黑色系商品影响有限。供需方面，上周 247家样本钢厂螺纹产量继续下降，表观需求 环比回落，总库存继续回升，五大品种总产量大幅下降，库存继续增加，表观需求处于一年中的最低。整体来看，目前市场整体仍处于供需双弱的 状态，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位快速增加，预计要到元宵节之后下游需求才会逐步启动 ，市场对 2026 年的需求预期相对偏弱。从技术面 看，期价出现大幅反弹后回落，显示上方阻力仍大。由于当前估值低，下方的空间或有限。 操作建议： 维持观望，谨慎交易 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 3067 3219 | 0 4 | 0 0.12% ...

投资咨询系列报告 更新时间：2026年02月27日08时19分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 消息面上，上海发布楼市"沪七条"，进一步调减住房限购政策，购房门槛进一步降低；其次，华北部分钢企已接到2026年全国两会期间临时自主减 排通知，要求企业在3月4日—3月11日执行阶段性减排管控，高炉负荷按不低于30%比例自主减排，并由企业结合自身装备、生产与原料库存情况， 制定专项减排执行方案，按要求上报备案。在消息面利多提振下，黑色系商品大幅反弹。供需方面，春节前 247家样本钢厂螺纹产量大幅下降，表 观需求环比回落，总库存继续回升，五大品种总产量大幅下降，库存继续增加，表观需求处于一年中的低位。整体来看，目前市场整体仍处于节日 模式，供需双弱，预计要到元宵节之后才会启动，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位快速增加，市场对 2026 年的需求预期相对偏弱。从技术面 看，期价出现大幅反弹，但是否能构成反转，仍有待观望。由于当前估值低，下方的空间或有限。 操作建议： 维持观望，谨慎交易 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- ...

铁水微降，原料支撑减弱 ——周报20260202 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研 究 所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | 本期观点——铁矿石 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：澳洲和巴西铁矿发运2521万吨（环比+5.30%，同比+9%）,铁矿石45港 | | | | | 口到港量2484.7万吨（环比-1.79%，同比+41.02%）. | | | | | 需求：铁水日产227.98万吨（环比-0.12万吨，同比-0.46万吨 ），铁矿石45 | | | | | 港口疏港量332.31万吨（环比+6.94%，同比+23.69%）。 | | | | | 库存：铁矿石45港口库存17022.26万吨（环比+1.53%，同比+10.59%）,247家 | 单边： | | | | | | 铁水超预 | | 铁矿 | 钢企进口铁矿库存9968.59万吨（环比+6.18%，同比+5.32%）。 | ...

2026年01月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：刚需仍存，价格震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：原料短期价格松动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：原料短期价格松动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需趋于双弱，煤价企稳小幅探涨 | 9 | | 原木：区间震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 28 日 铁矿石：刚需仍存，价格震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 3.5 | 0.45% | | | I2605 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel market shows weak supply and demand. The seasonal decline in rebar demand is significant, while the decline in hot - rolled coil demand is relatively small. The recent cost reduction may lead to a downward shift in the steel price center. The reference range for the May rebar contract is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan. Consider closing long positions on the steel - to - ore ratio when it rises, and continue to hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore is facing a situation of weak supply and demand. The support factors for iron ore are reversing, with iron - making resumption falling short of expectations, potential changes in negotiation deadlocks, and the gradual fulfillment of steel mill restocking. The price is under overall pressure, and it is advisable to short at around 800 yuan [4]. Coke Industry - The coke market is currently stable. After the fourth - round price cut, some coke enterprises are resisting price cuts and limiting production to maintain prices. The mainstream coke enterprises are initiating a price increase, which is expected to be realized. The market is expected to be looser after the Spring Festival, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1600 - 1800 yuan [7]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Before the Spring Festival, the spot market is strong due to restocking demand, but the futures market has over - anticipated the price increase. After the Spring Festival, the market supply and demand are expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1000 - 1200 yuan [7]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is limited, lacking upward drivers at the industrial level. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly within the range of 5300 - 5800 yuan, with short - term attention to macro and policy factors [8]. Ferromanganese Industry - Ferromanganese is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5800 - 6000 yuan, with short - term attention to macro and policy factors [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. The rebar spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, and the rebar 05 contract price decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 3117 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil spot price in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract price decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 3286 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2930 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton, and the profit of rebar in North China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 95 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.6 tons to 819.2 tons, an increase of 0.1%. Rebar production decreased by 0.7 tons to 190.3 tons, a decrease of 0.4%, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.9 tons to 308.4 tons, an increase of 0.9% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.9 tons to 1247.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6%. The rebar inventory remained unchanged at 438.1 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.8 tons to 362.3 tons, a decrease of 1.6% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.2 to 7.6, a decrease of 2.2%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 29.3 tons to 826.1 tons, an increase of 3.7%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 15.4 tons to 190.3 tons, an increase of 8.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 5.8 tons to 314.2 tons, an increase of 1.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of most iron ore varieties decreased, with the PB powder warehouse - receipt cost decreasing by 5.5 yuan/ton to 850.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6%. The 05 - contract basis of some varieties changed slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 17.5, a decrease of 2.8% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 260.7 tons to 2659.7 tons, a decrease of 8.9%. The global shipment volume decreased by 251.0 tons to 2929.9 tons, a decrease of 7.9%. The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons to 11964.7 tons, an increase of 8.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6%. The 45 - port daily average ore removal volume decreased by 3.4 tons to 661.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 162.3 tons to 6072.0 tons, a decrease of 2.6%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 169.1 tons [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 279.8 tons to 16555.10 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 272.6 tons to 9262.2 tons, an increase of 3.0%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 days to 21.0 days, an increase of 10.5% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 05 contract price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1684 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.6%. The coking profit decreased by 20 yuan/ton [7]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 1193 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.2%. The coking coal 05 contract price increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1129 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4%. The sample coal mine profit increased by 18 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.74% [7]. Supply - The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 tons to 63.5 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average coke output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 tons to 46.7 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6%. The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 4.3 tons to 920.2 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.3 tons to 81.8 tons, a decrease of 4.9%, while the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.6 tons to 650.3 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The coking coal inventory of various sectors increased to varying degrees [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of ferrosilicon in most regions remained unchanged, with the 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia at 5250 yuan/ton. The spot prices of ferromanganese in some regions also remained unchanged, with the FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia at 5680 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon主力合约收盘价 increased by 4.0 yuan/ton to 5556.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.14%, and the ferromanganese主力合约收盘价 increased by 26.0 yuan/ton to 5786.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5% [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly, and the production profit increased slightly. The manganese ore prices of some varieties decreased slightly [8]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production enterprise's weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 29.2%, a decrease of 1.4%. The ferromanganese weekly output remained unchanged at 19.1 tons, and the start - up rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 36.1%, a decrease of 2.0% [8]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Steel Union) decreased slightly, and the ferromanganese demand remained unchanged. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6% [8]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.5 tons to 6.4 tons, a decrease of 7.5%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased by 1.0 tons to 37.3 tons, a decrease of 2.5% [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, black - series commodities showed small fluctuations, with prices generally maintaining a range - bound operation. After the holiday, coal mines resumed production, increasing supply. Spot trading improved, and downstream coking enterprises were more active in restocking, leading to a reduction in mine inventories. [4] - The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke is relatively limited. The performance of downstream finished steel basically conforms to the off - season characteristics, suppressing the raw material end. This week, the main contracts reduced positions by about 22,000 lots, and market divergence decreased. Short - term prices may maintain a range - bound operation. As the current price is close to the lower end of the range and there is still some restocking demand before the Spring Festival, attention can be paid to periodic low - price opportunities. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - **Supply Side**: After the holiday, coal mines resumed production, and the supply of coking coal increased. The daily average output of raw coal from 523 mines this week was 197.79 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.92 million tons; the daily average output of clean coal was 76.85 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.42 million tons. The daily average output of sample coal washing plants was 27.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.23 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 36.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.37%. [20][23] - **Demand Side**: Downstream coking enterprises' restocking enthusiasm increased, and the online auction success rate remained high. However, steel mills' restocking enthusiasm was not high, mainly consuming previous inventories. [4] - **Import**: After the holiday, the port clearance volume returned to the previous high level. However, the available resources of Mongolian 5 coking coal were scarce, and the quotation generally rose. The transaction price of Mongolian 5 raw coal has risen to about 1,080 yuan/ton, and the cost of Mongolian coal and Shanxi mainstream warehouse receipts is between 1,100 - 1,250 yuan/ton. [7] - **Price**: The price of raw coal rose, deepening the losses of coking enterprises. Some coking enterprises initiated the first price increase, and there may be a second price increase expected. [7] 3.2 Market Data - **Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost**: Different varieties of coking coal have different warehouse receipt costs in different regions. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan is 1,078 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 1,229 yuan/ton. [11] - **Coking Coal Basis**: The basis of different contracts has different week - on - week changes and basis rates. For example, the basis of the January contract is 221, with a week - on - week increase of 114 and a basis rate of 17.90%. [13] - **Coking Coal Month - to - Month Spread**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Black Commodity Price Ratio**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Coking Coal Auction Data**: This week, the coking coal listing volume was 146.94 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54.26 million tons, the transaction rate was 85.85%, a week - on - week increase of 16.76%, and the non - transaction rate was 14.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 16.76%. [30] - **Coking Coal Total Inventory**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Coking Coal Inventory Distribution**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Coking Profit**: The coking profit in different regions decreased week - on - week. For example, the national coking profit was - 65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [39] - **Coke Basis**: The basis of different contracts has different week - on - week changes and basis rates. For example, the basis of the January contract is 178, with a week - on - week increase of 52 and a basis rate of 12.05%. [42] - **Coke Month - to - Month Spread**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Coke Supply**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Coke Demand**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Coke Total Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 920.21 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.31 million tons. [54] - **Coke Inventory Distribution**: The inventory of steel mills was 650.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.6 million tons; the inventory of independent coking enterprises was 81.81 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.26 million tons; the port inventory was 188.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.97 million tons. [54] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Futures Positions**: No specific data is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices fluctuated within a range, with this week's data showing increased production, accumulated inventory, and a significant decline in apparent demand. The current demand is in a seasonal off - peak, while steel mill production has rebounded from a low level, resulting in increased supply and decreased demand, and inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. Before the Spring Festival, steel usually accumulates inventory seasonally. The decline in the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is not significant, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory accumulation is lower than expected. The raw materials, coking coal and iron ore, support steel prices due to strong supply - side expectations. The fluctuation range of rebar is expected to be between 3000 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coils between 3150 - 3350 [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to transition from a situation of loose supply and demand to a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is suppressed by high inventory on the upside and supported by the expectation of steel mill restocking on the downside, and it is expected to maintain high - level volatility. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment, policy expectations, and the rhythm of steel mill restocking. In the long term, negotiation situations should be monitored. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the recommended strategy is range - bound trading, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - For coke, the futures market saw a peak - to - fall trend, while the spot market is weakly stable. After the fourth round of price cuts, some coke enterprises are resisting further price cuts and implementing production restrictions to maintain prices. The supply is recovering, and the demand is increasing as steel mills resume production after the New Year. The overall inventory is slightly increasing in the middle position, and the supply - demand situation has improved. The recommended strategy is to go short on the spot at high prices on a light - position basis and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal. For coking coal, the futures market continued to rise, and the spot market also showed a mixed performance. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is increasing as steel mills reduce losses and increase production. The overall inventory is slightly increasing in the middle position. The recommended strategy is to go short on the spot at high prices on a light - position basis and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - For ferrosilicon, the futures price dropped significantly, mainly affected by market sentiment. The supply is at a historically neutral - low level, with some potential for short - term increase. The demand from the steel - making industry has some support, and the non - steel demand, such as from the metal magnesium industry, is also strong. The cost is relatively stable, and the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 5500 - 6200. For silicomanganese, the futures price also decreased. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand from the steel - making industry is increasing. The manganese ore price provides support for the silicomanganese price. The supply - demand situation is in a state of slight oversupply but with overall balance in manganese elements. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the recommended strategy is range - bound trading, with a reference range of 5800 - 6300 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices showed different trends. For example, rebar in North China increased by 30 yuan/ton, while hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets and slab remained unchanged, while the cost of Jiangsu's electric - arc furnace and converter rebar increased slightly. The profit of rebar in South China increased by 48, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in North China increased by 5 [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase. The rebar output increased by 2.8 to 191.0, a 1.5% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 16.1 to 438.1, a 3.8% increase, while the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.8 to 368.1, a 0.8% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 4.2 to 8.4, a 33.1% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 44.2 to 796.8, a 5.3% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 25.5 to 175.0, a 12.7% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, and the basis of the 05 - contract for different iron ore powders increased. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2.5 to 21.0, a 10.6% decrease, while the 1 - 5 spread increased by 34.0 to 45.0, a 309.1% increase [4]. Supply - The global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 463.4 to 3213.7, a 12.6% decrease, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 76.9 to 11054.0, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.8 to 227.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 10.2 to 325.2, a 3.2% increase [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 45 ports increased by 41.8 to 15970.89, a 0.3% increase, and the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased by 86.4 to 8946.5, a 1.0% increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) increased by 11, a 0.7% increase [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi's medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increased by 33, a 2.8% increase [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.9 to 63.6, a 1.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.9, a 0.1% increase [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory remained basically unchanged, with the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreasing by 5.5 to 86.1, a 6.0% decrease, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increasing by 1.7 to 645.7, a 0.3% increase [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The price of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. For example, the ferrosilicon 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia decreased from 5750.0 to 5350.0, and the silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia increased from 5300.0 to 5650.0 [7]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some manganese ores increased slightly, and the production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased significantly [7]. Supply - The production of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the production of silicomanganese decreased by 0.3 to 19.1 [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from the steel - making industry increased slightly [7]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of ferrosilicon in 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.5 to 6.9, a 7.1% increase, and the inventory of silicomanganese in 63 sample enterprises decreased by 1.1 to 38.3, a 2.8% decrease [7].

钢材：供需压力逐步累积，钢价或将震荡偏弱 光期研究 见微知著 钢材策略月报 2026 年 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 钢材：供需压力逐步累积，钢价或将震荡偏弱 p 2 1.2 价格：12月国际市场热卷价格涨跌互现，美国、欧盟、东南亚等有所上涨，印度、中东等有所下跌 单位：美元/吨 | | | 热轧板卷 | | | 螺纹钢 | | | 方坯 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 区域 | 12月31日 | 11月28日 | 涨跌 | 12月31日 | 11月28日 | 涨跌 | 12月31日 | 11月28日 | 涨跌 | | 美国钢厂(中西部) | 995 | 970 | 25 | 1010 | 1010 | 0 | - | - | - | | 美国进口 | 870 | 850 | 20 | 960 | 960 | 0 | - | - | - | | 欧盟钢厂 | 735 | 715 | 20 | 685 ...

黑色金属 2026 年展望：供给重塑 20251222 摘要 2026 年黑色系商品价格走势关键在于需求增长预期波动、供给端表现 及政策介入。整体需求稳中有升但难显著反转，供给侧或通过政策进一 步调整以实现平衡，需密切关注原料供应周期变化的影响。 后地产时代，中国人均钢材消费维持高位，内需投资和新型外循环支撑 钢铁消费。2025 年中国钢铁直接和间接出口强劲，新兴市场工业化和 城镇化推动出口增长，但需关注出口管理政策的影响。 钢材方面，后地产时代终端消费下滑斜率较慢，人均消费稳定。内需投 资中基建与制造业投资占比上升，新型外循环推动钢铁产品出口。需关 注粗钢总量压力及政策干预，原料端供给释放周期是 2026 年关键。 钢铁出口政策优化结构，限制高耗能、低附加值产品出口。2025 年钢 坯出口增长迅速，但受反倾销影响，未来政策将继续约束低端钢材品种 的出口。 2026 年中国外循环模式将强化，海外周期性需求或见底，对中高端钢 材制品及间接出口乐观。内需方面，制造业投资转负，地产链消费承压， 基建受项目掣肘，总体内需缺乏长期有效增长点。 Q&A 近期大宗商品市场的变化有哪些值得关注的点？ 最近大宗商品市场中，白银 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore: Downstream demand has limited space, and the valuation is high [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The prices were pushed up during the night session of the black series, and the price trend is strong [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: There is a game between long and short sentiments, with wide - range fluctuations [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal: Wide - range fluctuations [2][15]. - Logs: Low - level fluctuations [2][19]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of I2605 was 768.0 yuan/ton, up 7.0 yuan/ton with a 0.92% increase. The position increased by 9,427 hands to 488,996 hands. Imported ore and most domestic ore prices rose slightly. The basis against Super Special decreased by 5.9 yuan/ton, and the 12605 - 12609 spread increased by 1.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **News**: From January to November, national real estate development investment was 7859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%, and residential investment was 6043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0% [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Hot - Rolled Coil and Rebar - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3084 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase; HC2605 was 3245 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton with a 0.03% increase. The trading volume and position of both decreased. Spot prices remained unchanged. The basis of RB2605 decreased by 3 yuan/ton, and that of HC2605 increased by 1 yuan/ton [7]. - **News**: In early December 2025, key steel enterprises' daily crude steel output increased by 2.8%, daily pig iron output decreased by 3.4%, and daily steel output decreased by 12.1%. Steel inventory increased by 3.3% compared with the previous ten - day period. Some steel products are subject to export license management. Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand all decreased in the week of December 11. In mid - November, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 2.5%. In October 2025, China's imported steel decreased by 8.2% month - on - month [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 were 5546 and 5502 yuan/ton respectively, and those of silicomanganese 2603 and 2605 were 5758 and 5796 yuan/ton respectively. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were 5200 and 5540 yuan/ton respectively. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed to varying degrees [11]. - **News**: On December 17, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. Some silicon - iron plants had production adjustments. UMK and NMT raised the manganese ore quotation for January 2026. Some steel mills had procurement price adjustments for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of JM2601 was 970.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton with a 0.3% decrease; J2601 was 1530.5 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton with a 1.1% increase. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, and the basis and spreads of different contracts changed [15]. - **News**: From January to November, national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and residential investment decreased by 15.0% [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [18]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log contracts changed to varying degrees. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [20]. - **News**: From January to November, national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and residential investment decreased by 15.0% [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [22].