Market Intervention - Chinese state-owned banks are selling RMB in the spot market to curb its recent appreciation [1] - These banks are also using swaps to hedge their positions [1] - Banks have been increasing their purchases of USD spot in recent months [1] Swap Market Dynamics - Onshore RMB/USD 12-month swap points are at their lowest negative value since 2022, indicating rising costs for forward USD positions [1] - Onshore RMB swap points have exceeded offshore RMB swap points in recent weeks, with the difference reaching its highest level since 2013, suggesting strong onshore demand for USD [1]

#行情 周二稳定币概念个股走强，欧科云链、众安在线涨9%，新火科技控股、国泰君安国际涨超7%。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):路透：中国正考虑首次允许使用人民币支持的稳定币，以促进人民币在全球范围内的更广泛采用。国务院将于8月晚些时候审查并可能批准一项路线图，预计将包括人民币在全球市场上的使用目标，并概述国内监管机构的职责，以及包括风险预防指南。 https://t.co/tDSrdABpwp ...

Core Insights - Professor Jeffrey D. Sachs emphasized the bright prospects for Hong Kong amidst the changing global order [1][3] - Sachs highlighted Hong Kong's unique advantages, including a robust common law framework and deep integration with international financial and trade systems [3] - He praised Hong Kong's potential in promoting global financial innovation and sustainable development [3] Summary by Categories Economic and Financial Outlook - Sachs noted that Hong Kong can benefit from its unique conditions in the current turbulent global environment [3] - He mentioned the shift towards a multi-currency system, where digital currencies and the Renminbi will play significant roles, with Hong Kong being crucial in this currency transformation [3] Regional Development - Sachs expressed optimism about the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Belt and Road Initiative, predicting positive impacts on emerging and developing economies worldwide [3] - He stated that Hong Kong, as a key part of the Greater Bay Area, is fully capable of driving the development of the Belt and Road Initiative and becoming a leading global financial center [3]

Group 1 - Musk criticized Trump's "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, suggesting that if passed, it would lead to the formation of a new political party called "American Party" [4] - Trump's interview indicated that Musk's discontent stems from the bill's proposal to eliminate tax credits for electric vehicle consumers, impacting Tesla's interests [6] - A survey revealed that 49% of Americans oppose the bill, while only 29% support it, indicating significant public dissent [9] Group 2 - In June, U.S. private sector employment unexpectedly fell by 33,000, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with the service sector experiencing its largest decline since the pandemic [13] - Following the employment data, traders increased bets on at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2025, with expectations for the upcoming non-farm payroll report [15] - UBS forecasts a modest increase of 100,000 in non-farm payrolls for June, while Citigroup predicts an increase of only 85,000, with concerns about a potential rise in the unemployment rate [15]

Group 1 - The "Private Economy Promotion Law" was passed, marking the first foundational law specifically for the development of the private economy in China, effective from May 20, 2025. It addresses key concerns such as "fair competition," "investment and financing promotion," "technological innovation," "business regulation," "service guarantee," and "rights protection" for private enterprises [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce noted that the U.S. has expressed willingness to negotiate on tariff issues, and China is currently evaluating this situation [2] Group 3 - A new proactive fiscal policy is set to be introduced in 2024, including a one-time increase of 6 trillion yuan in local special bond limits to replace hidden debts, issuance of special government bonds to support state-owned banks, and measures to stabilize the real estate market [3] Group 4 - In April, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 50.4% [4] Group 5 - The U.S. President announced a 100% tariff on all films produced abroad entering the U.S., indicating a significant trade policy shift [5] Group 6 - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. This led to a decrease in market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6] Group 7 - Global risk assets saw a comprehensive rise, with the Hang Seng Tech Index leading with a 3.1% increase, indicating a recovery trend in Chinese assets [7] Group 8 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened by purchasing 46.539 billion HKD in U.S. dollars to maintain the currency peg, marking its first intervention in five years [8] Group 9 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority attributed the recent strength of the Hong Kong dollar to increased demand related to stock investments and the appreciation of several regional currencies against the U.S. dollar [9] Group 10 - Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting addressed trade policies and investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of global trade [10] Group 11 - New energy vehicle companies reported significant growth in April deliveries, with XPeng Motors seeing a 273% year-on-year increase [11] Group 12 - Travel booking platform Fliggy reported an over 80% increase in customized travel bookings for the May Day holiday, indicating a shift towards more personalized travel experiences [12] Group 13 - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in June, reflecting a response to current market conditions [13] Group 14 - Upcoming new stock offerings include three companies, with specific details on their subscription codes [14] Group 15 - CITIC Securities indicated that risk appetite is expected to rise in May, focusing on themes related to technology and consumption [15] Group 16 - Zhongtai Securities highlighted that opportunities in May will be more pronounced in technology, consumption, and certain cyclical sectors, suggesting a focus on improving performance and policy support [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent political events in the U.S. and their potential impact on the economy and financial markets, particularly focusing on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and investor sentiment towards U.S. assets [9][11]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - The article highlights two scenarios for the Federal Reserve's future policy: one where trade negotiations fail, leading to a potential rate cut starting in July, and another where negotiations succeed, resulting in a delay of rate cuts due to persistent inflation pressures [11]. - Current market expectations indicate a 90.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in May, with a 9.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut [11]. - Predictions for the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings suggest a significant likelihood of maintaining the current rate of 4.25%-4.50% in May, with a 58.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut by June [12]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - Following Trump's criticism of Powell, the dollar index fell to its lowest level since March 2022, but later rebounded as Trump expressed optimism about negotiations [9]. - Trump's approval rating after his first 100 days in office dropped to 39%, marking the lowest for any U.S. president in the past 80 years [9]. - The article notes that the chaotic nature of Trump's administration has led to significant shifts in investor confidence and market dynamics, particularly regarding U.S. assets [9].