04 成本端 电价预期带动反弹， 整体基本面仍然承压 PVC周报 2026/01/10 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 从业资格号：F03136381 徐绍祖（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2400元/吨，周同比上涨75元/吨；山东电石价格报2780元/吨，周同比持平；兰炭陕西中料820元/吨，周同比持 平。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润持续修复，乙烯制利润上升，目前估值中性偏低。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率79.7%，环比上升1%；其中电石法79.7%，环比上升1.4%；乙烯法79.6%，环比上升0.3%。上周供应端负荷小幅上升，主 因河南宇航、陕西金泰、宁波韩华负荷提升，下周预期负荷进一步回升。1月整体负荷预期仍然在高位，减产幅度偏小，供应压力较大。 ◆ 需求：出口方面出口印度阻力减小，但存在淡季压力；三大下游开工持稳，管材负荷35.4%，环比下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are experiencing wide - range fluctuations due to the combined influence of sector sentiment and fundamental contradictions [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Manganese Silicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week's manganese silicon production was 19.96 tons, a 1.2% decrease from last week. The weekly operating rate was 39.59%, down 0.65 percentage points from last week. The reduction in production was mainly contributed by Guizhou [21][22]. - **Demand**: Steel mill tenders' pricing moved down with the market, and the market was mainly driven by rigid demand. The production of building materials continued to decline, and the demand for manganese silicon in steelmaking was weakly supported. The iron - water output increased, but the overall demand for manganese silicon might weaken [27][29]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the inventory of 63 manganese - silicon sample enterprises was 352,500 tons, a net increase of 33,000 tons. The number of warehouse receipts was 19,863, an increase of 5,505, equivalent to 27,525 tons, and the converted inventory was 99,315 tons. In October, the average available days of steel mill manganese - silicon inventory was 15.7 days (- 0.23 days) [33][36]. - **Manganese Ore**: The global manganese ore departure volume increased month - on - month. The dredging of manganese ore remained at a high level, and the current supply and demand of manganese ore were relatively balanced. Overseas mining enterprises' quotes were firm, and the port cargo rights were concentrated. The manganese - silicon futures market might suppress the price space of manganese ore [40][41][47]. Silicon Ferroalloy Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week's silicon ferroalloy production was 11.41 tons, a 0.09 - ton increase from last week. The weekly operating rate was 36.26%, up 0.18 percentage points. The reduction in production was mainly contributed by Qinghai, Shaanxi, etc. [53][54]. - **Demand**: Steel mill tender quotes showed both increases and decreases, and the short - term demand for steel mill tenders declined as expected. The demand for silicon ferroalloy was weakly supported. The iron - water output increased, but the export volume in September was 4.01 tons, a 14.6% increase month - on - month [60][65][70]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the inventory of 60 silicon - ferroalloy sample enterprises was 81,360 tons, an increase of 2,670 tons. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,450, an increase of 2,751, equivalent to 13,755 tons, and the converted inventory was 42,250 tons. In October, the average available days of steel mill silicon - ferroalloy inventory was 15.67 days (+ 0.15 days) [72]. - **Profit**: The settlement electricity price in Inner Mongolia decreased, while the electricity cost in non - main producing areas increased. The profit of silicon ferroalloy was compressed along with the market [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a complex situation with increasing supply, weak demand, rising cost support, and high inventory levels. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 8310 - 8550 [6]. - The polysilicon market has increasing supply, short - term demand reduction in some sectors but mid - term recovery expected, stable cost support, and the 2512 contract is expected to oscillate between 51495 - 53185 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 99,000 tons, a 2.06% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: The polysilicon inventory was 253,000 tons. Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 74,000 tons, with high - level polysilicon inventory, low - level organic silicon inventory, and high - level alloy ingot inventory. The demand remained sluggish [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - fed 553 silicon was 3,126 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On October 17, the spot price of non - oxygen - fed silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 500 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 562,000 tons, a 3.12% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 168,000 tons, a 0.09% increase. The main port inventory remained unchanged [6]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the 01 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Expectation: The supply schedule increased and was near the historical average level. The demand recovery was at a low level, and the cost support increased. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 8310 - 8550 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The planned production for October was 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 14.35GW, a 11.84% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 173,100 tons, a 3.15% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production was in a loss state. The planned production for October was 55.68GW, a 5.70% decrease from the previous month. The battery cell production and component production also showed certain changes in production and inventory [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 15,100 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On October 17, the price of N - type dense material was 51,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 12 contract was - 2065 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 253,000 tons, a 5.41% increase from the previous week, at a historical high [8]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the 12 contract price closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with an increase in long positions [8]. - Expectation: The supply schedule continued to increase. The demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components was expected to recover in the mid - term after a short - term decrease. The overall demand showed continuous recovery, and the cost support remained stable. The 2512 contract is expected to oscillate between 51495 - 53185 [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Market Overview: Various contracts of industrial silicon showed different price changes. The weekly social inventory increased, and the sample enterprise inventory also changed slightly. The production and cost - profit data of different regions and products were also provided [15]. - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: The historical trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon were presented [19]. - Inventory: The historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions, including delivery warehouses and ports, sample enterprises, and registered warehouse receipts, were shown [26]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The historical trends of SMM sample enterprise weekly production, industrial silicon monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise opening rates in different regions were presented [28]. - Cost: The historical trends of production costs and profits of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - fed 553 silicon in Xinjiang were shown [34]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon were provided, showing production, import, export, consumption, and balance data [36][39]. Polysilicon - Market Overview: Various contracts of polysilicon showed different price changes. The production, inventory, and cost - profit data of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were also provided [17]. - Disk Price Trends: The historical trends of the PS main contract price, trading volume, and basis were presented [23]. - Fundamental Trends: The historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, opening rate, and monthly demand were shown [60]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon was provided, showing supply, import, export, consumption, and balance data [63]. - Downstream Trends: The historical trends of price, production, inventory, and export of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories were presented [66][69][72][75]. - Component Cost - Profit: The historical trends of silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost - profit, battery cell cost - profit, and component cost - profit of 210mm double - sided double - glass components were shown [78].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, demand recovery remains weak, and cost support is rising. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 8385 - 8645 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production scheduling is decreasing, while demand in silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is increasing. The overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support is weakening. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 51175 - 53215 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Industrial Silicon** - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. Production scheduling is expected to increase and stay around the historical average [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 81,000 tons, a 1.21% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish, especially in polysilicon [6]. - **Inventory**: Silicon inventory is at a low level of 211,000 tons, organic silicon inventory is at a high level of 73,200 tons, and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 54,600 tons [6]. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 3254 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - **Basis**: On September 4th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 435 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 0.73% to 537,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.55% to 170,800 tons, and major port inventory decreased by 1.68% to 117,000 tons [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [6]. - **Polysilicon** - **Supply**: Last week's production was 30,200 tons, a 2.58% decrease from the previous week. The production scheduling for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, silicon wafer production was 13.31GW, a 8.29% increase from the previous week, and inventory increased by 3.67% to 180,500 tons. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In September, production scheduling for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is expected to increase [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 34,650 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,350 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On September 4th, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 695 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory decreased by 0.93% to 211,000 tons, at a historical low [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with long positions decreasing [9]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices of most contracts showed minor fluctuations, with some contracts slightly up or down. Inventory in different regions and ports showed various trends, with some decreasing and some increasing slightly [15]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were mostly stable, with some minor changes. Inventory and production also showed different trends [17]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Analysis - **Organic Silicon** - **Price and Production**: DMC daily capacity utilization remained unchanged at 70.59%, lower than the historical average. The price and profit of DMC and its downstream products showed different trends [42][44]. - **Inventory and Trade**: DMC monthly inventory increased by 34.81% to 73,200 tons, and export and import volumes showed different trends over time [42][48]. - **Aluminum Alloy** - **Price and Supply**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable, and the cost and profit of imported ADC12 showed minor changes. The supply side, including scrap aluminum recycling, inventory, and imports, showed different trends [51]. - **Inventory and Production**: The monthly production of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots showed different trends, and the weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys also varied [54]. - **Demand**: Automobile monthly production and aluminum alloy wheel exports showed different trends over time [55]. - **Polysilicon** - **Fundamentals**: The industry cost of polysilicon showed an upward trend, and prices, inventory, production, and demand showed different trends [59]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different states in different months, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [62]. - **Downstream Segments** - **Silicon Wafers**: Prices, production, inventory, and net exports of silicon wafers showed different trends [65]. - **Battery Cells**: Prices, production, inventory, and exports of battery cells showed different trends [68]. - **Photovoltaic Components**: Prices, inventory, production, and exports of photovoltaic components showed different trends [71]. - **Photovoltaic Accessories**: Prices, production, and trade of photovoltaic accessories such as coatings, films, glass, and quartz sand showed different trends [74]. - **Component Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of components and their components (silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells) showed different trends [76].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年8月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 4 每日观点——工业硅 | 供给端来看 | 上周工业硅供应量为8 | 1万吨 | 环比有所增加3 | 85% | ， | ， | 。 | . | . | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 需求端来看 | 上周工业硅需求为7万吨 | 环比减少1 | 需求持续低迷 | 多晶 | 40% | ， | ， | . | . | . | | | | | | 硅库存为22 | 9万吨 | 处于高位 | 硅片亏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply last week was 75,000 tons, a 1.35% increase compared to the previous week, and the demand was 77,000 tons, a 11.59% increase. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8355 - 8585 [6][7]. - For polysilicon, last week's production was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% decrease compared to the previous week, and the forecasted production in July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase compared to the previous month. The overall demand shows a continuous decline, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 40705 - 41985 [9]. Summaries by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 75,000 tons, a 1.35% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 77,000 tons, a 11.59% increase compared to the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, organic silicon inventory is at a high level, and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - permeable 553 in Xinjiang is 3475 yuan/ton, and the cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - **Basis**: On July 10th, the spot price of non - oxygen - permeable in East China was 8500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 30 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 551,000 tons, a 0.18% decrease compared to the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 174,100 tons, a 12.99% decrease; and major port inventory is 124,000 tons, a 1.58% decrease [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling has decreased and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8355 - 8585 [6][7]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% decrease compared to the previous week. The forecasted production in July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase compared to the previous month [9]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 11.5GW, a 3.36% decrease compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 181,300 tons, a 5.67% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components also shows a downward trend [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 34,780 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 11,220 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On July 10th, the price of N - type polysilicon was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 4955 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 276,000 tons, a 1.47% increase compared to the previous week, and it is at a low level compared to the same period in history [9]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions are increasing [9]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling will increase in the short term and is expected to decline in the medium term. Overall demand shows a continuous decline, cost support has strengthened, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 40705 - 41985 [9]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The prices of most futures contracts have increased, and the spot prices of some specifications have remained stable [15]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory have all decreased [15]. - **Production**: The production of some sample enterprises has increased, while the production of others has decreased [15]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs and profits of some regions and specifications have changed slightly [15]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have changed, and the average cost of the polysilicon industry has increased slightly [17]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon wafers has decreased, while the inventory of photovoltaic cells in external sales factories has increased [17]. - **Production**: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has shown a downward trend [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand balance shows a certain degree of imbalance, with supply exceeding demand in some months [17].