硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年11月16日 资料来源：Mysteel、iFInd、国泰君安期货研究所 2 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFInd国泰君安期货研究所 ： ◼ 本周合金价格走势震荡，受主产区结算电价下行影响，成本重心小幅下移，但同时底部成本支撑较为明显。当前基本面矛盾继续累积， 库存高企压制盘面高度，部分工厂已开展停炉减产，持续跟踪合金端的供应变动。 ◼ 宏观：国内：10月CPI同比转正，环比强于季节规律，PPI同比降幅连续3个月收窄；海外：美国政府停摆短期结束，市场交易主线转向 降息，联储官员鹰派发言导致市场对12月降息预期大幅下调。 ◼ 微观：铁水产量有所修复，但对原料需求支撑偏弱，当前合金基本面矛盾继续累积，需注意炉料负反馈节奏开启。 ◼ 本周硅铁端，受利润压缩及季节性检修影响，主产区部分工厂停炉减产，铁水虽环比小幅修复，但钢招量缩减，需求承接有限，工厂减 产计划仍存，需跟踪下游订单需求情况；锰硅端，成本端表现坚挺，供应环比小幅收缩，锰矿需求维持，四季 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a complex situation with increasing supply, weak demand, rising cost support, and high inventory levels. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 8310 - 8550 [6]. - The polysilicon market has increasing supply, short - term demand reduction in some sectors but mid - term recovery expected, stable cost support, and the 2512 contract is expected to oscillate between 51495 - 53185 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 99,000 tons, a 2.06% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: The polysilicon inventory was 253,000 tons. Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 74,000 tons, with high - level polysilicon inventory, low - level organic silicon inventory, and high - level alloy ingot inventory. The demand remained sluggish [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - fed 553 silicon was 3,126 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On October 17, the spot price of non - oxygen - fed silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 500 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 562,000 tons, a 3.12% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 168,000 tons, a 0.09% increase. The main port inventory remained unchanged [6]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the 01 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Expectation: The supply schedule increased and was near the historical average level. The demand recovery was at a low level, and the cost support increased. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 8310 - 8550 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The planned production for October was 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 14.35GW, a 11.84% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 173,100 tons, a 3.15% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production was in a loss state. The planned production for October was 55.68GW, a 5.70% decrease from the previous month. The battery cell production and component production also showed certain changes in production and inventory [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 15,100 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On October 17, the price of N - type dense material was 51,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 12 contract was - 2065 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 253,000 tons, a 5.41% increase from the previous week, at a historical high [8]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the 12 contract price closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with an increase in long positions [8]. - Expectation: The supply schedule continued to increase. The demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components was expected to recover in the mid - term after a short - term decrease. The overall demand showed continuous recovery, and the cost support remained stable. The 2512 contract is expected to oscillate between 51495 - 53185 [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Market Overview: Various contracts of industrial silicon showed different price changes. The weekly social inventory increased, and the sample enterprise inventory also changed slightly. The production and cost - profit data of different regions and products were also provided [15]. - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: The historical trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon were presented [19]. - Inventory: The historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions, including delivery warehouses and ports, sample enterprises, and registered warehouse receipts, were shown [26]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The historical trends of SMM sample enterprise weekly production, industrial silicon monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise opening rates in different regions were presented [28]. - Cost: The historical trends of production costs and profits of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - fed 553 silicon in Xinjiang were shown [34]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon were provided, showing production, import, export, consumption, and balance data [36][39]. Polysilicon - Market Overview: Various contracts of polysilicon showed different price changes. The production, inventory, and cost - profit data of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were also provided [17]. - Disk Price Trends: The historical trends of the PS main contract price, trading volume, and basis were presented [23]. - Fundamental Trends: The historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, opening rate, and monthly demand were shown [60]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon was provided, showing supply, import, export, consumption, and balance data [63]. - Downstream Trends: The historical trends of price, production, inventory, and export of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories were presented [66][69][72][75]. - Component Cost - Profit: The historical trends of silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost - profit, battery cell cost - profit, and component cost - profit of 210mm double - sided double - glass components were shown [78].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年9月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅供应量为9万吨 | ， | | 环比持平 。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 | | 1万吨 . ， | | 环比减少1 . | 21% . | 需求持续低迷 | 多晶 . | | | | | | | 硅库存为21 1万吨 . | ， | 处于低位 ， | 硅片亏损 | ， | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年8月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 4 每日观点——工业硅 | 供给端来看 | 上周工业硅供应量为8 | 1万吨 | 环比有所增加3 | 85% | ， | ， | 。 | . | . | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 需求端来看 | 上周工业硅需求为7万吨 | 环比减少1 | 需求持续低迷 | 多晶 | 40% | ， | ， | . | . | . | | | | | | 硅库存为22 | 9万吨 | 处于高位 | 硅片亏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply last week was 75,000 tons, a 1.35% increase compared to the previous week, and the demand was 77,000 tons, a 11.59% increase. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8355 - 8585 [6][7]. - For polysilicon, last week's production was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% decrease compared to the previous week, and the forecasted production in July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase compared to the previous month. The overall demand shows a continuous decline, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 40705 - 41985 [9]. Summaries by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 75,000 tons, a 1.35% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 77,000 tons, a 11.59% increase compared to the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, organic silicon inventory is at a high level, and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - permeable 553 in Xinjiang is 3475 yuan/ton, and the cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - **Basis**: On July 10th, the spot price of non - oxygen - permeable in East China was 8500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 30 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 551,000 tons, a 0.18% decrease compared to the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 174,100 tons, a 12.99% decrease; and major port inventory is 124,000 tons, a 1.58% decrease [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling has decreased and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8355 - 8585 [6][7]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% decrease compared to the previous week. The forecasted production in July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase compared to the previous month [9]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 11.5GW, a 3.36% decrease compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 181,300 tons, a 5.67% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components also shows a downward trend [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 34,780 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 11,220 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On July 10th, the price of N - type polysilicon was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 4955 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 276,000 tons, a 1.47% increase compared to the previous week, and it is at a low level compared to the same period in history [9]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions are increasing [9]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling will increase in the short term and is expected to decline in the medium term. Overall demand shows a continuous decline, cost support has strengthened, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 40705 - 41985 [9]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The prices of most futures contracts have increased, and the spot prices of some specifications have remained stable [15]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory have all decreased [15]. - **Production**: The production of some sample enterprises has increased, while the production of others has decreased [15]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs and profits of some regions and specifications have changed slightly [15]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have changed, and the average cost of the polysilicon industry has increased slightly [17]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon wafers has decreased, while the inventory of photovoltaic cells in external sales factories has increased [17]. - **Production**: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has shown a downward trend [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand balance shows a certain degree of imbalance, with supply exceeding demand in some months [17].