1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Range - bound [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously chase up [3] - Urea: Cautiously chase up [4] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market of energy and chemical products is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situation, supply - demand relationship, and cost. Most products face downward pressure due to factors like supply overhang, seasonal weak demand, or geopolitical easing [1][3][7]. - Some products show a game between weak reality and strong expectation, such as methanol, where the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, but there are expectations for future changes [3]. - For fertilizers like urea, although there are some positive factors like export and spring fertilization expectations, the downstream demand in the festival season is weakening, and the supply pressure is rising [4]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On January 16, WTI rose 0.44%, Brent rose 0.58%, and SC fell 2.81%. As of January 9, US crude oil inventory increased by 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million barrels [10][11]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased but remains uncertain. There is a supply surplus in the off - season, with increasing global crude oil inventory and inventory of US crude oil and refined products. OPEC+ is in an expansion cycle [1][12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production to lower prices, and the oil price is in a low - price range. Pay attention to non - OPEC+ production changes. In the short - term, there is a rebound, but it is under pressure in the medium - and long - term. Focus on the range of SC [430 - 445] [14]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 16, the PG main contract closed at 4,144 yuan/ton, down 2.36% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed to varying degrees [16][17]. - **Core Logic**: It is mainly anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is under pressure in the long - term. The supply and demand are relatively stable, with downstream chemical demand showing resilience. As of January 16, the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 36 lots [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to continue to decline. In the short - term, the cost - end oil price is uncertain, and the fundamentals are bearish. Focus on the range of PG [4,100 - 4,200] [19]. L - **Market Performance**: The L05 contract price and related data changed. The L05 basis was 0 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 35 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Core Logic**: The upstream and mid - stream are destocking, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly following the cost in the short - term. In 2025, from January to November, Iran accounted for 8.7% of China's imports. The shutdown ratio increased to 14%, and production is expected to increase slightly [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of L [6,650 - 6,800] [23]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 contract price and related data changed. The PP05 basis was - 117 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 43 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Core Logic**: The warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and the supply is slightly increasing. It will fluctuate weakly following the cost in the short - term. The supply and demand are weak, and the demand is in the off - season in January. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of PP [6,450 - 6,600] [27]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract price and related data changed. The V05 basis was - 218 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 124 yuan/ton [29][30]. - **Core Logic**: The social inventory is increasing at a high level. Although there is an expectation of rush - exporting in the short - term, the long - term supply and demand are expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse. The domestic operation rate has increased to 80%, and the internal and external demand is in the seasonal off - season [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of V [4,700 - 4,900] [31]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 contract price and related data changed. The TA05 basis was - 58 yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was 44 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee was 401.6 yuan/ton [32]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation is not low. The supply - side devices are under planned maintenance with a relatively high intensity. The downstream demand is seasonally weak. The cost - end PX supply and demand are in a weak balance. There is a slight inventory accumulation from January to February, but the expectation is positive from the perspective of production and demand [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term driving force is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for TA05. Focus on the range of TA05 [5,020 - 5,120] [34]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract price and related data changed. The EG05 basis was - 101 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 104 yuan/ton [35]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation is relatively low. The domestic device load has increased. The downstream demand is seasonally weak. The port inventory is rising, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation from January to February. It lacks upward driving force and follows the cost to fluctuate [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG05 [3,730 - 3,820] [37]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol comprehensive profit was - 215.5 yuan/ton, and the East China basis strengthened [40]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic methanol device operation rate has declined from a high level. The overseas devices are slightly under - loaded. The supply pressure is expected to ease in January. The demand is slightly weakening. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and the demand is suppressed by the weak olefin market. Close long positions. Focus on the range of MA05 [2,225 - 2,285] [42]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The urea main contract price and related data changed. The Shandong small - particle urea basis was - 31 yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 29 yuan/ton [43]. - **Core Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The supply - side operation rate is rising, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period. The short - term demand is strong, but the downstream demand is entering the festival off - season. There is a ceiling and a floor for the price under relevant policies [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The winter storage has limited positive effects, the supply pressure is rising, and the demand is seasonally weak. Focus on the range of UR05 [1,780 - 1,810] [46]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 16, the NG main contract closed at 3.128 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.26% month - on - month. The US Henry Hub spot price and other prices changed [48][49]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is stable, and the price is under pressure. The domestic LNG retail profit increased. The US natural gas rig count decreased [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, although the demand has support, the supply is relatively abundant, and the price is under pressure. Focus on the range of NG [3.355 - 3.991] [50]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On January 16, the BU main contract closed at 3,130 yuan/ton, down 1.17% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed to varying degrees [52][53]. - **Core Logic**: The export of Venezuelan crude oil is uncertain, the raw material is tight, and the Middle East geopolitical situation has eased, leading to a decline in oil prices. The profit has decreased, the supply has increased, and the inventory has risen [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to geopolitical risks. Focus on the range of BU [3,100 - 3,200] [55]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 contract price and related data changed. The FG05 basis was - 66 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 110 yuan/ton [57][58]. - **Core Logic**: The enterprise inventory is slowly decreasing from a high level, and the market is weakly oscillating. The supply and demand are both weak, the profit of three processes has turned negative, and the weak demand suppresses the upside [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of FG [1,080 - 1,130] [59]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract price and related data changed. The SA05 basis was - 43 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [61][62]. - **Core Logic**: The production enterprise operation rate has increased, the factory inventory has accumulated against the season, and the market has returned to weak oscillation. The demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [63]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of SA [1,180 - 1,230] [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the PVC industry are poor. Although the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a moderately low - level, the supply reduction is small and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is entering the off - season, while the export also faces off - season pressure. In the short term, the expected electricity price supports PVC at the cost end. In the medium term, before substantial industry production cuts, the main strategy is to short on rallies [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2400 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 820 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive integrated profit of chlor - alkali continues to recover, and the profit of ethylene - based production rises, with the current valuation moderately low [11]. - **Supply**: PVC capacity utilization rate is 79.7%, up 1% month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 79.7%, up 1.4% month - on - month; the ethylene method is 79.6%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Supply load increased slightly last week and is expected to rise further next week. The overall load in January is expected to remain high, with small production cuts and high supply pressure [11]. - **Demand**: Export resistance to India has decreased, but there is off - season pressure. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are stable. The pipe load is 35.4%, down 0.2% month - on - month; the film load is 66.4%, unchanged month - on - month; the profile load is 30.2%, up 0.4% month - on - month. The overall downstream load is 44%, up 0.1% month - on - month. The PVC pre - sales volume last week was 90.9 tons, up 9.4 tons month - on - month [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, factory inventory was 32.8 tons, up 1.9 tons month - on - month; social inventory was 111.4 tons, up 3.7 tons month - on - month; total inventory was 144.2 tons, up 5.6 tons month - on - month; the number of warehouse receipts decreased. With strong supply and weak demand, both exports and domestic demand are in the off - season, and it is difficult to digest the high production. PVC is expected to accumulate inventory again with the arrival of the off - season [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including the term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 5 - 9 price difference, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [15][20][22]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory The report shows various charts about PVC inventory and profit, such as factory inventory, social inventory, combined factory and social inventory, warehouse receipts, and the profits of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [28][30][37]. 3.4 Cost Side The cost side shows a rebound in calcium carbide. The report provides charts of the prices of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide, calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke price, 32% liquid caustic soda self - pick - up price in Shandong, Shandong market price of liquid chlorine, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [43][44][51]. 3.5 Supply Side The report shows the historical trend of PVC production capacity, the production capacity put into operation in 2025, the raw materials consumed by the production capacity put into operation in 2025, and the operating rates of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and overall PVC, as well as the weekly production volume, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [55][59][64]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are stable, gradually entering the off - season. The report provides charts of the operating rates of PVC downstream industries such as pipes, films, and profiles, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [70][71]. - **Export Demand**: Exports continued to decline in November. The report provides charts of PVC export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [73][74][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are experiencing wide - range fluctuations due to the combined influence of sector sentiment and fundamental contradictions [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Manganese Silicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week's manganese silicon production was 19.96 tons, a 1.2% decrease from last week. The weekly operating rate was 39.59%, down 0.65 percentage points from last week. The reduction in production was mainly contributed by Guizhou [21][22]. - **Demand**: Steel mill tenders' pricing moved down with the market, and the market was mainly driven by rigid demand. The production of building materials continued to decline, and the demand for manganese silicon in steelmaking was weakly supported. The iron - water output increased, but the overall demand for manganese silicon might weaken [27][29]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the inventory of 63 manganese - silicon sample enterprises was 352,500 tons, a net increase of 33,000 tons. The number of warehouse receipts was 19,863, an increase of 5,505, equivalent to 27,525 tons, and the converted inventory was 99,315 tons. In October, the average available days of steel mill manganese - silicon inventory was 15.7 days (- 0.23 days) [33][36]. - **Manganese Ore**: The global manganese ore departure volume increased month - on - month. The dredging of manganese ore remained at a high level, and the current supply and demand of manganese ore were relatively balanced. Overseas mining enterprises' quotes were firm, and the port cargo rights were concentrated. The manganese - silicon futures market might suppress the price space of manganese ore [40][41][47]. Silicon Ferroalloy Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week's silicon ferroalloy production was 11.41 tons, a 0.09 - ton increase from last week. The weekly operating rate was 36.26%, up 0.18 percentage points. The reduction in production was mainly contributed by Qinghai, Shaanxi, etc. [53][54]. - **Demand**: Steel mill tender quotes showed both increases and decreases, and the short - term demand for steel mill tenders declined as expected. The demand for silicon ferroalloy was weakly supported. The iron - water output increased, but the export volume in September was 4.01 tons, a 14.6% increase month - on - month [60][65][70]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the inventory of 60 silicon - ferroalloy sample enterprises was 81,360 tons, an increase of 2,670 tons. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,450, an increase of 2,751, equivalent to 13,755 tons, and the converted inventory was 42,250 tons. In October, the average available days of steel mill silicon - ferroalloy inventory was 15.67 days (+ 0.15 days) [72]. - **Profit**: The settlement electricity price in Inner Mongolia decreased, while the electricity cost in non - main producing areas increased. The profit of silicon ferroalloy was compressed along with the market [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a complex situation with increasing supply, weak demand, rising cost support, and high inventory levels. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 8310 - 8550 [6]. - The polysilicon market has increasing supply, short - term demand reduction in some sectors but mid - term recovery expected, stable cost support, and the 2512 contract is expected to oscillate between 51495 - 53185 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 99,000 tons, a 2.06% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: The polysilicon inventory was 253,000 tons. Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 74,000 tons, with high - level polysilicon inventory, low - level organic silicon inventory, and high - level alloy ingot inventory. The demand remained sluggish [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - fed 553 silicon was 3,126 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On October 17, the spot price of non - oxygen - fed silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 500 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 562,000 tons, a 3.12% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 168,000 tons, a 0.09% increase. The main port inventory remained unchanged [6]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the 01 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Expectation: The supply schedule increased and was near the historical average level. The demand recovery was at a low level, and the cost support increased. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 8310 - 8550 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The planned production for October was 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 14.35GW, a 11.84% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 173,100 tons, a 3.15% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production was in a loss state. The planned production for October was 55.68GW, a 5.70% decrease from the previous month. The battery cell production and component production also showed certain changes in production and inventory [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 15,100 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On October 17, the price of N - type dense material was 51,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 12 contract was - 2065 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 253,000 tons, a 5.41% increase from the previous week, at a historical high [8]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the 12 contract price closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with an increase in long positions [8]. - Expectation: The supply schedule continued to increase. The demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components was expected to recover in the mid - term after a short - term decrease. The overall demand showed continuous recovery, and the cost support remained stable. The 2512 contract is expected to oscillate between 51495 - 53185 [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Market Overview: Various contracts of industrial silicon showed different price changes. The weekly social inventory increased, and the sample enterprise inventory also changed slightly. The production and cost - profit data of different regions and products were also provided [15]. - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: The historical trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon were presented [19]. - Inventory: The historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions, including delivery warehouses and ports, sample enterprises, and registered warehouse receipts, were shown [26]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The historical trends of SMM sample enterprise weekly production, industrial silicon monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise opening rates in different regions were presented [28]. - Cost: The historical trends of production costs and profits of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - fed 553 silicon in Xinjiang were shown [34]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon were provided, showing production, import, export, consumption, and balance data [36][39]. Polysilicon - Market Overview: Various contracts of polysilicon showed different price changes. The production, inventory, and cost - profit data of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were also provided [17]. - Disk Price Trends: The historical trends of the PS main contract price, trading volume, and basis were presented [23]. - Fundamental Trends: The historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, opening rate, and monthly demand were shown [60]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon was provided, showing supply, import, export, consumption, and balance data [63]. - Downstream Trends: The historical trends of price, production, inventory, and export of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories were presented [66][69][72][75]. - Component Cost - Profit: The historical trends of silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost - profit, battery cell cost - profit, and component cost - profit of 210mm double - sided double - glass components were shown [78].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, demand recovery remains weak, and cost support is rising. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 8385 - 8645 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production scheduling is decreasing, while demand in silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is increasing. The overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support is weakening. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 51175 - 53215 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Industrial Silicon** - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. Production scheduling is expected to increase and stay around the historical average [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 81,000 tons, a 1.21% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish, especially in polysilicon [6]. - **Inventory**: Silicon inventory is at a low level of 211,000 tons, organic silicon inventory is at a high level of 73,200 tons, and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 54,600 tons [6]. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 3254 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - **Basis**: On September 4th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 435 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 0.73% to 537,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.55% to 170,800 tons, and major port inventory decreased by 1.68% to 117,000 tons [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [6]. - **Polysilicon** - **Supply**: Last week's production was 30,200 tons, a 2.58% decrease from the previous week. The production scheduling for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, silicon wafer production was 13.31GW, a 8.29% increase from the previous week, and inventory increased by 3.67% to 180,500 tons. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In September, production scheduling for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is expected to increase [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 34,650 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,350 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On September 4th, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 695 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory decreased by 0.93% to 211,000 tons, at a historical low [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with long positions decreasing [9]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices of most contracts showed minor fluctuations, with some contracts slightly up or down. Inventory in different regions and ports showed various trends, with some decreasing and some increasing slightly [15]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were mostly stable, with some minor changes. Inventory and production also showed different trends [17]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Analysis - **Organic Silicon** - **Price and Production**: DMC daily capacity utilization remained unchanged at 70.59%, lower than the historical average. The price and profit of DMC and its downstream products showed different trends [42][44]. - **Inventory and Trade**: DMC monthly inventory increased by 34.81% to 73,200 tons, and export and import volumes showed different trends over time [42][48]. - **Aluminum Alloy** - **Price and Supply**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable, and the cost and profit of imported ADC12 showed minor changes. The supply side, including scrap aluminum recycling, inventory, and imports, showed different trends [51]. - **Inventory and Production**: The monthly production of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots showed different trends, and the weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys also varied [54]. - **Demand**: Automobile monthly production and aluminum alloy wheel exports showed different trends over time [55]. - **Polysilicon** - **Fundamentals**: The industry cost of polysilicon showed an upward trend, and prices, inventory, production, and demand showed different trends [59]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different states in different months, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [62]. - **Downstream Segments** - **Silicon Wafers**: Prices, production, inventory, and net exports of silicon wafers showed different trends [65]. - **Battery Cells**: Prices, production, inventory, and exports of battery cells showed different trends [68]. - **Photovoltaic Components**: Prices, inventory, production, and exports of photovoltaic components showed different trends [71]. - **Photovoltaic Accessories**: Prices, production, and trade of photovoltaic accessories such as coatings, films, glass, and quartz sand showed different trends [74]. - **Component Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of components and their components (silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells) showed different trends [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while the demand recovery is at a low level. The cost support has increased slightly. It is expected that industrial silicon 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production scheduling continues to increase. The overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later. The cost support remains stable. It is expected that polysilicon 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 49900 - 52790 [10]. - The main logic for the market is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [14][15]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 81,000 tons, a 3.85% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 70,000 tons, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week, and the demand remained sluggish [6]. - Inventory: The silicon inventory was 229,000 tons, at a high level; the silicone inventory was 54,300 tons, at a low level; the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 46,000 tons, at a high level [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 2,354 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season weakened [6]. - Basis: On August 6th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 400 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Market sentiment: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20, showing a neutral sentiment; the net position of the main force is short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish sentiment [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% increase from the previous week. The production scheduling for August is expected to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 11GW, a 1.78% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 181,500 tons, a 1.56% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is at a loss. 8 - month production scheduling is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase from the previous month. The July cell output was 57.26GW, a 1.90% increase from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 3.86GW, a 27.57% decrease from the previous week, and currently, cell production is at a loss. The August production scheduling is 59.15GW, a 3.30% increase from the previous month. The July module output was 47.1GW, a 1.72% increase from the previous month. The expected module output in August is 46.82GW, a 0.59% decrease from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month, and the European monthly inventory is 29.8GW, a 2.29% decrease from the previous month. Currently, module production is profitable [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 229,000 tons, a 5.76% decrease from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - Basis: On August 6th, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,345 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - Market sentiment: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, showing a bullish sentiment; the net position of the main force is long, with a reduction in long positions, showing a bullish sentiment [12]. 3.2 Market Overviews 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of various contracts generally increased, with the increase ranging from 1.18% to 2.74%. The spot prices of different types of silicon remained mostly unchanged [18]. - The weekly social inventory increased by 0.93% to 540,000 tons, and the weekly sample enterprise inventory decreased by 3.41% to 171,450 tons. The weekly inventory of major ports decreased by 0.83% to 119,000 tons [18]. - The weekly output of sample enterprises increased by 5.33% to 32,625 tons [18]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of various silicon wafers, cells, and modules remained mostly unchanged. The weekly silicon wafer output increased by 5.74% to 12.9GW, and the weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06% to 26.5GW [20]. - The cell output in July increased by 1.90% to 57.26GW, and the module output in July increased by 1.73% to 47.1GW [20]. - The domestic inventory of modules decreased by 51.73% to 24.76GW, and the European inventory decreased by 2.30% to 29.8GW [20]. 3.3 Other Aspects - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: Presents the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon [22]. - **Inventory**: Displays the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and warehouses, including delivery warehouses and ports, as well as the weekly inventory of SMM sample enterprises [25]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: Shows the historical trends of the weekly output of SMM sample enterprises, monthly output by specification, and the weekly and monthly capacity utilization rates of industrial silicon [27]. - **Component Cost Trends**: Presents the historical trends of electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices in major production areas [32]. - **Cost - Sample Region Trends**: Displays the historical trends of the cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, 421 silicon in Yunnan, and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang [34]. - **Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Analyzes the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including production, consumption, import, export, and inventory data [36][63]. - **Downstream Market Trends**: - **Organic Silicon**: Covers the price, production, profit, cost, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [42]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Includes the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy, as well as related waste aluminum and aluminum scrap data [50]. - **Polysilicon Downstream**: Analyzes the cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance of silicon wafers, cells, modules, and related photovoltaic accessories, as well as the cost - profit trends of components and the photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply last week was 75,000 tons, a 1.35% increase compared to the previous week, and the demand was 77,000 tons, a 11.59% increase. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8355 - 8585 [6][7]. - For polysilicon, last week's production was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% decrease compared to the previous week, and the forecasted production in July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase compared to the previous month. The overall demand shows a continuous decline, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 40705 - 41985 [9]. Summaries by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 75,000 tons, a 1.35% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 77,000 tons, a 11.59% increase compared to the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, organic silicon inventory is at a high level, and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - permeable 553 in Xinjiang is 3475 yuan/ton, and the cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - **Basis**: On July 10th, the spot price of non - oxygen - permeable in East China was 8500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 30 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 551,000 tons, a 0.18% decrease compared to the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 174,100 tons, a 12.99% decrease; and major port inventory is 124,000 tons, a 1.58% decrease [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling has decreased and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8355 - 8585 [6][7]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% decrease compared to the previous week. The forecasted production in July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase compared to the previous month [9]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 11.5GW, a 3.36% decrease compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 181,300 tons, a 5.67% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components also shows a downward trend [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 34,780 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 11,220 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On July 10th, the price of N - type polysilicon was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 4955 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 276,000 tons, a 1.47% increase compared to the previous week, and it is at a low level compared to the same period in history [9]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions are increasing [9]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling will increase in the short term and is expected to decline in the medium term. Overall demand shows a continuous decline, cost support has strengthened, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 40705 - 41985 [9]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The prices of most futures contracts have increased, and the spot prices of some specifications have remained stable [15]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory have all decreased [15]. - **Production**: The production of some sample enterprises has increased, while the production of others has decreased [15]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs and profits of some regions and specifications have changed slightly [15]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have changed, and the average cost of the polysilicon industry has increased slightly [17]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon wafers has decreased, while the inventory of photovoltaic cells in external sales factories has increased [17]. - **Production**: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has shown a downward trend [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand balance shows a certain degree of imbalance, with supply exceeding demand in some months [17].