Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, PTA prices declined. TA2605 closed at 5,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 178 yuan/ton or 3.27%. At the end of the year, terminal demand weakened, loom operating rates steadily declined, and polyester load dropped to the lowest point of the year. In February, there may be no new PTA maintenance plans, and the supply - demand outlook for PTA is weak, with a significant inventory build - up expected. Crude oil weakened, leading to the decline of PTA [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of PTA has slightly weakened. In February, there may be no new PTA maintenance plans. Around the Spring Festival, the terminal will have holidays, and polyester load will drop to the lowest point of the year. The supply - demand outlook for PTA is weak, with a significant inventory build - up expected. From the cost side, the Zhonghua Quanzhou PX plant restarted at the end of January, and there are no maintenance plans in February. With high PX profits, it is expected that the PX load in Asia and China will operate at a high level in February. Currently, oil prices are generally at a high level, and the crude oil supply - demand pattern is still weak. If geopolitical risks do not expand further, oil prices have a downward pressure, and the cost side may drag down PTA. Geopolitical risks should be monitored in February [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, PTA declined. TA2605 closed at 5,270 yuan/ton, down 178 yuan/ton or 3.27%. Terminal demand weakened at the end of the year, loom operating rates declined, and polyester load dropped to the annual low. In February, PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, with significant inventory build - up. Crude oil weakened, causing PTA to fall [2]. Key Concerns - Factors to watch include polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trends [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | PTA - related Index | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA Futures (Continuous) | yuan/ton | 5,270.00 | 5,400.00 | - 130.00 | - 2.41% | Daily | | PTA Output | 10,000 tons | 142.87 | 139.28 | 3.59 | 2.58% | Weekly | | Polyester Chip Operating Rate | % | 81.71 | 85.52 | - 3.81 | - 4.46% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom Operating Rate | % | 42.41 | 51.20 | - 8.79 | - 17.17% | Weekly | | PXN | yuan/ton | 316 | 357 | - 41.00 | - 11.48% | Daily | | PTA Cash - flow Cost | yuan/ton | 5,050 | 5,120 | - 70.00 | - 1.37% | Daily | [4] PX Market - There are figures showing PX futures closing prices, PX ex - factory prices in East China, PX CIF prices in Taiwan, CFR naphtha prices in Japan and their spreads, PX and MX prices in Taiwan and their spreads, and MX FOB prices in South Korea and the US Gulf and their spreads [8][9][10]. PX Supply - There are figures presenting PX production in Asia and China, PX monthly import volume and its year - on - year change, PX operating rates in China and Asia, and PX inventory [13][15][17]. PTA Market - There is a figure showing PTA futures closing prices (continuous) and the mainstream price in East China [20]. PTA Supply - There are figures showing PTA monthly output, PTA operating rate, and PTA social inventory [22][26]. PTA Consumption - There are figures showing PTA export volume, monthly output of polyester filament and staple fiber, operating rates of polyester chips, polyester filament and staple fiber, and loom operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [27][29][32]. Cost - Profit Analysis - There is a figure showing PTA spot price in East China, PTA cash - flow cost, and PTA profit [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Range - bound [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously chase up [3] - Urea: Cautiously chase up [4] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market of energy and chemical products is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situation, supply - demand relationship, and cost. Most products face downward pressure due to factors like supply overhang, seasonal weak demand, or geopolitical easing [1][3][7]. - Some products show a game between weak reality and strong expectation, such as methanol, where the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, but there are expectations for future changes [3]. - For fertilizers like urea, although there are some positive factors like export and spring fertilization expectations, the downstream demand in the festival season is weakening, and the supply pressure is rising [4]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On January 16, WTI rose 0.44%, Brent rose 0.58%, and SC fell 2.81%. As of January 9, US crude oil inventory increased by 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million barrels [10][11]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased but remains uncertain. There is a supply surplus in the off - season, with increasing global crude oil inventory and inventory of US crude oil and refined products. OPEC+ is in an expansion cycle [1][12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production to lower prices, and the oil price is in a low - price range. Pay attention to non - OPEC+ production changes. In the short - term, there is a rebound, but it is under pressure in the medium - and long - term. Focus on the range of SC [430 - 445] [14]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 16, the PG main contract closed at 4,144 yuan/ton, down 2.36% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed to varying degrees [16][17]. - **Core Logic**: It is mainly anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is under pressure in the long - term. The supply and demand are relatively stable, with downstream chemical demand showing resilience. As of January 16, the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 36 lots [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to continue to decline. In the short - term, the cost - end oil price is uncertain, and the fundamentals are bearish. Focus on the range of PG [4,100 - 4,200] [19]. L - **Market Performance**: The L05 contract price and related data changed. The L05 basis was 0 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 35 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Core Logic**: The upstream and mid - stream are destocking, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly following the cost in the short - term. In 2025, from January to November, Iran accounted for 8.7% of China's imports. The shutdown ratio increased to 14%, and production is expected to increase slightly [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of L [6,650 - 6,800] [23]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 contract price and related data changed. The PP05 basis was - 117 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 43 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Core Logic**: The warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and the supply is slightly increasing. It will fluctuate weakly following the cost in the short - term. The supply and demand are weak, and the demand is in the off - season in January. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of PP [6,450 - 6,600] [27]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract price and related data changed. The V05 basis was - 218 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 124 yuan/ton [29][30]. - **Core Logic**: The social inventory is increasing at a high level. Although there is an expectation of rush - exporting in the short - term, the long - term supply and demand are expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse. The domestic operation rate has increased to 80%, and the internal and external demand is in the seasonal off - season [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of V [4,700 - 4,900] [31]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 contract price and related data changed. The TA05 basis was - 58 yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was 44 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee was 401.6 yuan/ton [32]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation is not low. The supply - side devices are under planned maintenance with a relatively high intensity. The downstream demand is seasonally weak. The cost - end PX supply and demand are in a weak balance. There is a slight inventory accumulation from January to February, but the expectation is positive from the perspective of production and demand [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term driving force is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for TA05. Focus on the range of TA05 [5,020 - 5,120] [34]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract price and related data changed. The EG05 basis was - 101 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 104 yuan/ton [35]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation is relatively low. The domestic device load has increased. The downstream demand is seasonally weak. The port inventory is rising, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation from January to February. It lacks upward driving force and follows the cost to fluctuate [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG05 [3,730 - 3,820] [37]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol comprehensive profit was - 215.5 yuan/ton, and the East China basis strengthened [40]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic methanol device operation rate has declined from a high level. The overseas devices are slightly under - loaded. The supply pressure is expected to ease in January. The demand is slightly weakening. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and the demand is suppressed by the weak olefin market. Close long positions. Focus on the range of MA05 [2,225 - 2,285] [42]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The urea main contract price and related data changed. The Shandong small - particle urea basis was - 31 yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 29 yuan/ton [43]. - **Core Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The supply - side operation rate is rising, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period. The short - term demand is strong, but the downstream demand is entering the festival off - season. There is a ceiling and a floor for the price under relevant policies [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The winter storage has limited positive effects, the supply pressure is rising, and the demand is seasonally weak. Focus on the range of UR05 [1,780 - 1,810] [46]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 16, the NG main contract closed at 3.128 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.26% month - on - month. The US Henry Hub spot price and other prices changed [48][49]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is stable, and the price is under pressure. The domestic LNG retail profit increased. The US natural gas rig count decreased [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, although the demand has support, the supply is relatively abundant, and the price is under pressure. Focus on the range of NG [3.355 - 3.991] [50]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On January 16, the BU main contract closed at 3,130 yuan/ton, down 1.17% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed to varying degrees [52][53]. - **Core Logic**: The export of Venezuelan crude oil is uncertain, the raw material is tight, and the Middle East geopolitical situation has eased, leading to a decline in oil prices. The profit has decreased, the supply has increased, and the inventory has risen [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to geopolitical risks. Focus on the range of BU [3,100 - 3,200] [55]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 contract price and related data changed. The FG05 basis was - 66 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 110 yuan/ton [57][58]. - **Core Logic**: The enterprise inventory is slowly decreasing from a high level, and the market is weakly oscillating. The supply and demand are both weak, the profit of three processes has turned negative, and the weak demand suppresses the upside [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of FG [1,080 - 1,130] [59]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract price and related data changed. The SA05 basis was - 43 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [61][62]. - **Core Logic**: The production enterprise operation rate has increased, the factory inventory has accumulated against the season, and the market has returned to weak oscillation. The demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [63]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of SA [1,180 - 1,230] [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the PVC industry are poor. Although the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a moderately low - level, the supply reduction is small and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is entering the off - season, while the export also faces off - season pressure. In the short term, the expected electricity price supports PVC at the cost end. In the medium term, before substantial industry production cuts, the main strategy is to short on rallies [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2400 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 820 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive integrated profit of chlor - alkali continues to recover, and the profit of ethylene - based production rises, with the current valuation moderately low [11]. - **Supply**: PVC capacity utilization rate is 79.7%, up 1% month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 79.7%, up 1.4% month - on - month; the ethylene method is 79.6%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Supply load increased slightly last week and is expected to rise further next week. The overall load in January is expected to remain high, with small production cuts and high supply pressure [11]. - **Demand**: Export resistance to India has decreased, but there is off - season pressure. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are stable. The pipe load is 35.4%, down 0.2% month - on - month; the film load is 66.4%, unchanged month - on - month; the profile load is 30.2%, up 0.4% month - on - month. The overall downstream load is 44%, up 0.1% month - on - month. The PVC pre - sales volume last week was 90.9 tons, up 9.4 tons month - on - month [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, factory inventory was 32.8 tons, up 1.9 tons month - on - month; social inventory was 111.4 tons, up 3.7 tons month - on - month; total inventory was 144.2 tons, up 5.6 tons month - on - month; the number of warehouse receipts decreased. With strong supply and weak demand, both exports and domestic demand are in the off - season, and it is difficult to digest the high production. PVC is expected to accumulate inventory again with the arrival of the off - season [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including the term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 5 - 9 price difference, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [15][20][22]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory The report shows various charts about PVC inventory and profit, such as factory inventory, social inventory, combined factory and social inventory, warehouse receipts, and the profits of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [28][30][37]. 3.4 Cost Side The cost side shows a rebound in calcium carbide. The report provides charts of the prices of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide, calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke price, 32% liquid caustic soda self - pick - up price in Shandong, Shandong market price of liquid chlorine, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [43][44][51]. 3.5 Supply Side The report shows the historical trend of PVC production capacity, the production capacity put into operation in 2025, the raw materials consumed by the production capacity put into operation in 2025, and the operating rates of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and overall PVC, as well as the weekly production volume, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [55][59][64]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are stable, gradually entering the off - season. The report provides charts of the operating rates of PVC downstream industries such as pipes, films, and profiles, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [70][71]. - **Export Demand**: Exports continued to decline in November. The report provides charts of PVC export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [73][74][80].

Report on the Glass Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass industry is currently in a bottom - exploring phase. Although the supply has contracted due to some enterprises' cold - repair of production lines, the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market remains weak. The downstream mainly purchases based on rigid demand, and manufacturers still face significant shipment pressure. The supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated. It is expected that the short - term market will continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices. Attention should be paid to the actual recovery of downstream orders and the implementation progress of cold - repair production lines [13][14]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1041 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 29 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton week - on - week [13][19]. - **Cost and Profit**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 227.27 yuan/ton, down 20.43 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of using coal as fuel was 4.5 yuan/ton, down 21.29 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of using petroleum coke as fuel was - 31.48 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week [13][29][32]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of national float glass was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week. The number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51% [13][37]. - **Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.9 days/ton, down 0.90 days week - on - week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 46.50%, unchanged week - on - week. From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 71982.00 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the sales area of commercial housing was 6147.21 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the production and sales of automobiles were 335.87/332.21 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.09%/8.82%; from January to October, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 2769.20/2768.70 million vehicles [13][40][43][46]. - **Inventory**: The national float glass factory inventory was 6236.2 million heavy boxes, down 94.10 million heavy boxes week - on - week; the factory inventory in the Shahe area was 424.64 million heavy boxes, down 38.96 million heavy boxes week - on - week [13][51]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Glass Basis**: As of November 28, 2025, the basis was 29 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton week - on - week [13][19]. - **Glass Inter - month Spread**: As of November 28, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread was - 112 yuan/ton (+35), the 05 - 09 spread was - 56 yuan/ton (+22), the 09 - 01 spread was 168 yuan/ton (- 57), and the open interest reached 192.57 million lots [22]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Float Glass Profit and Cost**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 227.27 yuan/ton, down 20.43 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of using coal as fuel was 4.5 yuan/ton, down 21.29 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of using petroleum coke as fuel was - 31.48 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week [29][32]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Glass Production and Operating Rate**: As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass weekly output was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week, the number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51% [37]. - **Glass Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.9 days/ton, down 0.90 days week - on - week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 46.50%, unchanged week - on - week. The real - estate and automobile market data are as mentioned above [40][43][46]. 3.5 Inventory As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass factory inventory was 6236.2 million heavy boxes, down 94.10 million heavy boxes week - on - week; the factory inventory in the Shahe area was 424.64 million heavy boxes, down 38.96 million heavy boxes week - on - week [51]. Report on the Soda Ash Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the previously overhauled soda ash production facilities were gradually restarted, and the industry's operating load increased slightly. The mainstream soda ash market maintained on - demand sales, and the inventory decreased slightly. The supply of light soda ash was locally tight, and the demand was relatively stable; the demand for heavy soda ash was weak due to the decline in the downstream glass industry's operation. In general, the soda ash market's quotation remained firm due to cost support and pending orders, and the overall trading atmosphere was mild. It is expected that the soda ash price will remain stable in the short term, but it is still recommended to take a bearish view until the demand side shows significant improvement [62][63]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1146 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton week - on - week; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1176 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was - 30 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [62][68]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 118.5 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 220 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 822 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2446 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton week - on - week [62][79][82]. - **Supply**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 69.82 tons, down 2.27 tons week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%. The output of heavy soda ash was 38.31 tons, down 1.31 tons week - on - week; the output of light soda ash was 31.51 tons, down 0.96 tons week - on - week [62][90][93]. - **Demand**: As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass weekly output was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week, the number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in October reached 313 tons [62][96]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the soda ash factory inventory was 158.74 tons, down 5.70 tons week - on - week; the inventory available days were 13.16 days, down 0.47 days week - on - week. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 84.68 tons, down 4.05 tons week - on - week; the light soda ash factory inventory was 74.06 tons, down 1.65 tons week - on - week [62][101][104]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Soda Ash Basis**: As of November 28, 2025, the basis was - 30 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [62][68]. - **Soda Ash Inter - month Spread**: As of November 28, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread was - 55 yuan/ton (+14), the 05 - 09 spread was - 69 yuan/ton (- 2), the 09 - 01 spread was 124 yuan/ton (- 12), and the open interest reached 192.57 million lots [71]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Soda Ash Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 118.5 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 220 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton week - on - week [79]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 822 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2446 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton week - on - week [82][85]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Soda Ash Production**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 69.82 tons, down 2.27 tons week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%. The output of heavy soda ash was 38.31 tons, down 1.31 tons week - on - week; the output of light soda ash was 31.51 tons, down 0.96 tons week - on - week [90][93]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass weekly output was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week, the number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in October reached 313 tons [96]. 3.5 Inventory As of November 28, 2025, the soda ash factory inventory was 158.74 tons, down 5.70 tons week - on - week; the inventory available days were 13.16 days, down 0.47 days week - on - week. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 84.68 tons, down 4.05 tons week - on - week; the light soda ash factory inventory was 74.06 tons, down 1.65 tons week - on - week [101][104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are experiencing wide - range fluctuations due to the combined influence of sector sentiment and fundamental contradictions [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Manganese Silicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week's manganese silicon production was 19.96 tons, a 1.2% decrease from last week. The weekly operating rate was 39.59%, down 0.65 percentage points from last week. The reduction in production was mainly contributed by Guizhou [21][22]. - **Demand**: Steel mill tenders' pricing moved down with the market, and the market was mainly driven by rigid demand. The production of building materials continued to decline, and the demand for manganese silicon in steelmaking was weakly supported. The iron - water output increased, but the overall demand for manganese silicon might weaken [27][29]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the inventory of 63 manganese - silicon sample enterprises was 352,500 tons, a net increase of 33,000 tons. The number of warehouse receipts was 19,863, an increase of 5,505, equivalent to 27,525 tons, and the converted inventory was 99,315 tons. In October, the average available days of steel mill manganese - silicon inventory was 15.7 days (- 0.23 days) [33][36]. - **Manganese Ore**: The global manganese ore departure volume increased month - on - month. The dredging of manganese ore remained at a high level, and the current supply and demand of manganese ore were relatively balanced. Overseas mining enterprises' quotes were firm, and the port cargo rights were concentrated. The manganese - silicon futures market might suppress the price space of manganese ore [40][41][47]. Silicon Ferroalloy Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week's silicon ferroalloy production was 11.41 tons, a 0.09 - ton increase from last week. The weekly operating rate was 36.26%, up 0.18 percentage points. The reduction in production was mainly contributed by Qinghai, Shaanxi, etc. [53][54]. - **Demand**: Steel mill tender quotes showed both increases and decreases, and the short - term demand for steel mill tenders declined as expected. The demand for silicon ferroalloy was weakly supported. The iron - water output increased, but the export volume in September was 4.01 tons, a 14.6% increase month - on - month [60][65][70]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the inventory of 60 silicon - ferroalloy sample enterprises was 81,360 tons, an increase of 2,670 tons. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,450, an increase of 2,751, equivalent to 13,755 tons, and the converted inventory was 42,250 tons. In October, the average available days of steel mill silicon - ferroalloy inventory was 15.67 days (+ 0.15 days) [72]. - **Profit**: The settlement electricity price in Inner Mongolia decreased, while the electricity cost in non - main producing areas increased. The profit of silicon ferroalloy was compressed along with the market [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the steel industry, the steel market shows that mills continue to cut production, hot metal declines, apparent demand drops, and inventory reduction slows. The cost support of iron elements is weak, while that of carbon elements is strong. The steel price is unlikely to fall significantly, and the long - coking coal and short - hot rolled coil arbitrage can be held. The unilateral prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil may test previous lows [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the iron ore futures are in a weak downward trend. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. Due to the weak steel price, the profitability of mills is declining, which will force the iron ore market to be weak. It is recommended to short iron ore futures on rallies and conduct long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage [4][6]. - For the coke industry, the coke futures fluctuated downward last week. The supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 on dips and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. - For the coking coal industry, the coking coal futures also showed a downward trend last week. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3190 yuan/ton, 3200 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, +10, and - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Rebar contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 are 3095 yuan/ton, 3132 yuan/ton, and 3034 yuan/ton respectively, all showing declines [2]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3260 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, all down 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 are 3254 yuan/ton, 3276 yuan/ton, and 3245 yuan/ton respectively, all down 11 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East, North, and South China are all down [2]. Supply - The daily average hot metal output is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.9%); the output of five major steel products is 856.7 tons, down 18.5 tons (-2.1%); the rebar output is 208.5 tons, down 4.1 tons (-1.9%); the hot - rolled coil output is 318.2 tons, down 5.4 tons (-1.7%) [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1503.6 tons, down 10.2 tons (-0.7%); the rebar inventory is 592.5 tons, down 10 tons (-1.7%); the hot - rolled coil inventory is 410.5 tons, up 3.9 tons (0.9%) [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume is 8.7 tons, down 2.3 tons (-21%); the apparent demand of five major steel products is 866.9 tons, down 49.5 tons (-5.4%); the apparent demand of rebar is 218.5 tons, down 13.7 tons (-5.9%); the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil is 314.3 tons, down 17.6 tons (-5.3%) [2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders all show declines, and the basis of the 01 contract has different changes. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also have corresponding changes [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port and price indexes such as the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe all decline [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports is 3218.4 tons, up 1189.3 tons (58.6%); the global weekly shipping volume is 3213.8 tons, down 174.6 tons (-5.2%); the national monthly import volume is 11632.6 tons, up 1111.6 tons (10.6%) [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 mills is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.9%); the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports is 320.9 tons, down 15.5 tons (-4.6%); the national monthly pig iron output is 6604.6 tons, down 374.7 tons (-5.4%); the national monthly crude steel output is 7349.0 tons, down 387.8 tons (-5.0%) [4]. Inventory Changes - The port inventory at 45 ports is 14898.83 tons, up 184.8 tons (1.3%); the imported iron ore inventory of 247 mills is 6600.6 tons, up 160.1 tons (1.8%); the inventory available days of 64 mills is 21 days, unchanged [4]. Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) are unchanged. The coke 01 and 05 contracts decline, and the coking profit is down [7]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.6 tons, down 1.0 ton (-1.5%); the daily average output of 247 mills is 46.1 tons, down 0.1 ton (-0.34%) [7]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 mills is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.94%) [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory is 887.1 tons, down 13 tons (-1.4%); the coke inventories of coking plants, mills, and ports all decline [7]. Supply - demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap is -3.7 tons, down 0.1 ton (-2.2%) [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) are unchanged, while the prices of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) and coking coal 01 and 05 contracts decline. The sample coal mine profit is up [7]. Supply - The raw coal output is 848.4 tons, down 3.4 tons (-0.4%); the clean coal output is 433.0 tons, down 2.0 tons (-0.5%) [7]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coking production, with the daily average output of all - sample coking plants and 247 mills showing declines [7]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines is 80.4 tons, down 0.8 tons (-0.9%); the coking coal inventories of coking plants and ports increase, while those of mills decrease [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Glass - The domestic 5mm float glass market continued its downward trend last week, with prices in various regions generally decreasing by 30 - 90 yuan/ton. The market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with overall rising enterprise inventories, persistently sluggish downstream demand, and purchases mainly for刚需. There is a lack of substantial positive support. Affected by low - price supplies and rainy weather in some areas during the week, the trading pace further slowed down, and prices were under downward pressure. Although the increase in coal prices in the second half of the week strengthened cost support to some extent, the overall market sentiment remained bearish, and the price rebound momentum was insufficient. In the short term, the market lacks new driving factors and is expected to continue a weak and narrow - range oscillating trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the dynamic of enterprise cold repairs and the marginal changes in the expectation of the "anti - involution" policy [12][13]. Soda Ash - Last week, the prices of light and heavy soda ash in the northwest region decreased slightly. The industry supply continued to operate at a high level. Although the maintenance of individual enterprises provided some support to the local market, the overall production capacity base was large, and the supply pressure remained unchanged. There are still plans for individual devices to start up and resume production in the later stage. On the demand side, the downstream purchasing willingness is low, and they generally adopt a cautious strategy of replenishing inventory on demand and buying at low prices. Manufacturers have few new orders, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. Overall, the soda ash market is difficult to reverse the pattern of loose supply and demand in the short term. Prices are expected to remain stable and weak, and the trading center may further decline [56][57]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1092 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the basis was 48 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton. - **Cost and Profit**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 120.56 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40.72 yuan/ton; the low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was 113.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 26.44 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 48.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 42.86 yuan/ton. - **Supply**: The weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. - **Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 43.70%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. According to WIND data, from January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 65834.79 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the sales area of commercial housing was 8530.87 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.89%. According to CAAM data, in September, the production and sales of automobiles were 327.58/322.64 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 17.15%/14.86%; from January to September, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 2433.30/2436.30 million vehicles. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national float glass factories was 6661.3 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 233.74 million heavy boxes; the inventory of factories in the Shahe area was 582.8 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 60.40 million heavy boxes [12]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Basis**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1092 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the basis was 48 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of October 25, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 149 yuan/ton (- 15), the 05 - 09 spread was - 89 yuan/ton (- 5), the 09 - 01 spread was 238 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the open interest reached 1.9129 million lots [17][20]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 120.56 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40.72 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was 113.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 26.44 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 48.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 42.86 yuan/ton. - **Cost**: The low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton [26][29]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. - **Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 43.70%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 65834.79 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the sales area of commercial housing was 8530.87 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.89%. In September, the production and sales of automobiles were 327.58/322.64 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 17.15%/14.86%; from January to September, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 2433.30/2436.30 million vehicles [12][33][36]. 05. Inventory As of October 25, 2025, the inventory of national float glass factories was 6661.3 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 233.74 million heavy boxes; the inventory of factories in the Shahe area was 582.8 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 60.40 million heavy boxes [46]. Soda Ash 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1229 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the basis was - 55 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. - **Cost and Profit**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 92.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.70 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 199 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31.5 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 767 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/ton; the low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton. - **Supply**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 74.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.94%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55 tons; the output of light soda ash was 33.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 tons. - **Demand**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in August reached 3.1 million tons. - **Inventory**: As of October 25, 2025, the inventory of soda ash factories was 1.7021 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00016 million tons; the inventory available days were 14.11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 days. The inventory of heavy soda ash factories was 93.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 tons; the inventory of light soda ash factories was 76.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 tons [56]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Basis**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1229 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the basis was - 55 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of October 25, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 88 yuan/ton (- 2), the 05 - 09 spread was - 59 yuan/ton (+ 6), the 09 - 01 spread was 147 yuan/ton (- 4), and the open interest reached 1.9129 million lots [61][64]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 92.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.70 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 199 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31.5 yuan/ton. - **Cost**: The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 767 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/ton; the low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2142 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton [71][74][77]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 74.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.94%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55 tons; the output of light soda ash was 33.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 tons. - **Demand**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in August reached 3.1 million tons [81][84][87]. 05. Inventory As of October 25, 2025, the inventory of soda ash factories was 1.7021 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00016 million tons; the inventory available days were 14.11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 days. The inventory of heavy soda ash factories was 93.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 tons; the inventory of light soda ash factories was 76.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 tons [91][94].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, demand recovery remains weak, and cost support is rising. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 8385 - 8645 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production scheduling is decreasing, while demand in silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is increasing. The overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support is weakening. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 51175 - 53215 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Industrial Silicon** - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. Production scheduling is expected to increase and stay around the historical average [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 81,000 tons, a 1.21% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish, especially in polysilicon [6]. - **Inventory**: Silicon inventory is at a low level of 211,000 tons, organic silicon inventory is at a high level of 73,200 tons, and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 54,600 tons [6]. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 3254 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - **Basis**: On September 4th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 435 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 0.73% to 537,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.55% to 170,800 tons, and major port inventory decreased by 1.68% to 117,000 tons [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [6]. - **Polysilicon** - **Supply**: Last week's production was 30,200 tons, a 2.58% decrease from the previous week. The production scheduling for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, silicon wafer production was 13.31GW, a 8.29% increase from the previous week, and inventory increased by 3.67% to 180,500 tons. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In September, production scheduling for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is expected to increase [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 34,650 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,350 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On September 4th, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 695 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory decreased by 0.93% to 211,000 tons, at a historical low [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with long positions decreasing [9]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices of most contracts showed minor fluctuations, with some contracts slightly up or down. Inventory in different regions and ports showed various trends, with some decreasing and some increasing slightly [15]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were mostly stable, with some minor changes. Inventory and production also showed different trends [17]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Analysis - **Organic Silicon** - **Price and Production**: DMC daily capacity utilization remained unchanged at 70.59%, lower than the historical average. The price and profit of DMC and its downstream products showed different trends [42][44]. - **Inventory and Trade**: DMC monthly inventory increased by 34.81% to 73,200 tons, and export and import volumes showed different trends over time [42][48]. - **Aluminum Alloy** - **Price and Supply**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable, and the cost and profit of imported ADC12 showed minor changes. The supply side, including scrap aluminum recycling, inventory, and imports, showed different trends [51]. - **Inventory and Production**: The monthly production of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots showed different trends, and the weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys also varied [54]. - **Demand**: Automobile monthly production and aluminum alloy wheel exports showed different trends over time [55]. - **Polysilicon** - **Fundamentals**: The industry cost of polysilicon showed an upward trend, and prices, inventory, production, and demand showed different trends [59]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different states in different months, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [62]. - **Downstream Segments** - **Silicon Wafers**: Prices, production, inventory, and net exports of silicon wafers showed different trends [65]. - **Battery Cells**: Prices, production, inventory, and exports of battery cells showed different trends [68]. - **Photovoltaic Components**: Prices, inventory, production, and exports of photovoltaic components showed different trends [71]. - **Photovoltaic Accessories**: Prices, production, and trade of photovoltaic accessories such as coatings, films, glass, and quartz sand showed different trends [74]. - **Component Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of components and their components (silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells) showed different trends [76].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Silicon Manganese**: Supply and demand are becoming more balanced, with weekly production increasing and the operating rate in Yunnan reaching a five - year high. Demand has some resilience. Manganese ore prices are weak and stable, while coal and coke are strong, providing some cost support. In the short term, it may have a weak rebound following market sentiment, and short - selling or waiting is advisable. Seasonally, there is a high probability of decline in September and October, and mid - term short - selling opportunities during the correction can be considered. The reference range for the main contract is [5500, 6150] [3][4]. - **Silicon Iron**: The current fundamentals are becoming looser, and the rising raw material prices at the cost end temporarily support the silicon iron price. The inventory pressure has been released this month, and the warehouse receipts have stopped increasing and started to decline, but the absolute level is still high, suppressing the upward space of the spot price in the short term. Seasonally, there is a high probability of decline in September and October, and mid - term short - selling opportunities during the correction can be considered. The reference range for the main contract is [5400, 6000] [46][47]. 3. Summary by Directory Silicon Manganese - **Market Review**: In August, the futures price fluctuated weakly, with the price center continuously moving down. As of August 25, 2025, the closing price of the manganese - silicon main contract was 5898 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 2.28% from the beginning of the month; the spot price in Jiangsu was 5800 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 98 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 25, the market price of 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5750 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan from the beginning of the month), 5780 yuan/ton in Guangxi (down 20 yuan from the beginning of the month), and 5800 yuan/ton in Jiangsu (down 150 yuan from the beginning of the month) [9]. - **Supply**: The silicon - manganese output in July totaled 81.96 million tons, and the total output in August is expected to be 91 - 92 million tons [10]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of molten iron in August remained above 2.4 million tons, but the output of rebar did not increase significantly and remained at a low level compared to the same period. The procurement price of silicon - manganese alloy by a landmark steel mill in August was 6200 yuan/ton, and the procurement volume was 16,100 tons, higher than the same period last year [3]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 156,000 tons, a decrease of 8000 tons from the beginning of the month; as of August 25, the total number of warehouse receipts was 68,900, a decrease of 8900 from the beginning of the month; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) decreased to 353,900 tons, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the beginning of the month [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in the north is about 5850 yuan/ton, and 6300 yuan/ton in the south. Currently, most production areas are in a loss state. Other costs: Coke has started the eighth round of price increases, and the price will remain strong in the short term. The electricity prices in the north and south production areas have changed little [4]. - **Manganese Ore Price**: The port manganese ore price fluctuated weakly. As of August 25, the price of Gabon lumps at Tianjin Port was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree (down 1 yuan from the beginning of the month), CML Australian lumps were 41.5 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.5 yuan from the beginning of the month), and South32 South African semi - carbonate was 34.2 yuan/ton - degree (down 1.3 yuan from the beginning of the month) [23]. - **Manganese Ore Import**: In July 2025, China's total manganese ore import volume was 2.744 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 20.0%. Among them, the import volume of South African manganese ore was 1.365 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; the import volume of Australian ore was 407,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 81.4% and a year - on - year increase of 382.2%; the import volume of Gabonese manganese ore was 486,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 154.8% and a year - on - year increase of 44.0% [28]. Silicon Iron - **Market Review**: In August, the futures price fluctuated weakly, with the price center continuously moving down. As of August 25, 2025, the closing price of the silicon - iron main contract was 5680 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 2.64% from the beginning of the month; the spot price in Jiangsu was 5600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 80 yuan/ton [50]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in the main production areas decreased by 150 - 250 yuan/ton this month [51]. - **Supply**: The silicon - iron output in July totaled 446,700 tons, and the total output in August is expected to be 490,000 - 500,000 tons [53]. - **Demand - Steelmaking**: As of August 22, the weekly demand for silicon iron was 20,313.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38 tons. In July 2025, China's crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; from January to July, the cumulative crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [56]. - **Demand - Non - steel**: In July, the output of magnesium ingots totaled 73,374 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1664 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.46%; in July 2025, China's silicon - iron export volume totaled 35,946 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1224 tons; from January to July, the cumulative silicon - iron export volume was 235,994 tons, a decrease of 12,239 tons (a decline of 4.9%) compared to the same period last year [62]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 62,100 tons, a decrease of 3500 tons from the beginning of the month; as of August 25, the total number of warehouse receipts was 20,200, a decrease of 1800 from the beginning of the month; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) totaled 109,700 tons, a decrease of 5500 tons from the beginning of the month [46]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in the production areas has increased slightly, and most of the industry is in a loss state. Currently, the production cost in Ningxia is 5388 yuan/ton (the lowest), and the spot profit is - 88 yuan/ton; the production cost in Gansu is 5609 yuan/ton (the highest), and the spot profit is about - 259 yuan/ton [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - For methanol, port inventory has significantly accumulated, imports are high leading to high inventory, and the expected return of inland supply is on the horizon. As traditional demand enters the peak season later, it's necessary to focus on whether demand can support after the return of inland supply. If inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol may experience a valuation decline [1] - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year-on-year, with the upstream accumulating inventory and the coal - chemical sector reducing inventory. The overall inventory is neutral, with the 09 basis around -150 in North China and -100 in East China. Import profit is around -100 with no further increase for now. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [5] - For polypropylene, the upstream two - oil inventory is accumulating while the mid - stream is reducing inventory. The basis is -60, and the non - standard price difference is neutral. Exports have been good this year. With over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated to neutral if exports continue to expand or PDH device maintenance increases [5] - For PVC, the basis remains at 09 - 150, and the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The mid - upstream inventory reduction has slowed down. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders should be monitored [5] Summary by Product Methanol - Price data shows that from 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, the daily change of动力煤期货is 0, Jiangsu spot drops by 18, and other regional prices also have different degrees of decline [1] Polyethylene - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Northeast Asia ethylene price remains unchanged, while prices in North China LL and East China LL decline, and other data also show corresponding changes [5] Polypropylene - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Shandong propylene and Northeast Asia propylene prices remain stable, while prices in East China PP and other regions decline, and the basis changes from -50 to -60 [5] PVC - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Northwest calcium carbide price drops by 50, Shandong caustic soda price rises by 20, and other prices also show corresponding changes, with the basis (high - end delivery product) changing from -70 to -170 [5]