硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年11月16日 资料来源：Mysteel、iFInd、国泰君安期货研究所 2 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFInd国泰君安期货研究所 ： ◼ 本周合金价格走势震荡，受主产区结算电价下行影响，成本重心小幅下移，但同时底部成本支撑较为明显。当前基本面矛盾继续累积， 库存高企压制盘面高度，部分工厂已开展停炉减产，持续跟踪合金端的供应变动。 ◼ 宏观：国内：10月CPI同比转正，环比强于季节规律，PPI同比降幅连续3个月收窄；海外：美国政府停摆短期结束，市场交易主线转向 降息，联储官员鹰派发言导致市场对12月降息预期大幅下调。 ◼ 微观：铁水产量有所修复，但对原料需求支撑偏弱，当前合金基本面矛盾继续累积，需注意炉料负反馈节奏开启。 ◼ 本周硅铁端，受利润压缩及季节性检修影响，主产区部分工厂停炉减产，铁水虽环比小幅修复，但钢招量缩减，需求承接有限，工厂减 产计划仍存，需跟踪下游订单需求情况；锰硅端，成本端表现坚挺，供应环比小幅收缩，锰矿需求维持，四季 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the steel industry, the steel market shows that mills continue to cut production, hot metal declines, apparent demand drops, and inventory reduction slows. The cost support of iron elements is weak, while that of carbon elements is strong. The steel price is unlikely to fall significantly, and the long - coking coal and short - hot rolled coil arbitrage can be held. The unilateral prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil may test previous lows [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the iron ore futures are in a weak downward trend. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. Due to the weak steel price, the profitability of mills is declining, which will force the iron ore market to be weak. It is recommended to short iron ore futures on rallies and conduct long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage [4][6]. - For the coke industry, the coke futures fluctuated downward last week. The supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 on dips and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. - For the coking coal industry, the coking coal futures also showed a downward trend last week. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3190 yuan/ton, 3200 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, +10, and - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Rebar contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 are 3095 yuan/ton, 3132 yuan/ton, and 3034 yuan/ton respectively, all showing declines [2]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3260 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, all down 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 are 3254 yuan/ton, 3276 yuan/ton, and 3245 yuan/ton respectively, all down 11 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East, North, and South China are all down [2]. Supply - The daily average hot metal output is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.9%); the output of five major steel products is 856.7 tons, down 18.5 tons (-2.1%); the rebar output is 208.5 tons, down 4.1 tons (-1.9%); the hot - rolled coil output is 318.2 tons, down 5.4 tons (-1.7%) [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1503.6 tons, down 10.2 tons (-0.7%); the rebar inventory is 592.5 tons, down 10 tons (-1.7%); the hot - rolled coil inventory is 410.5 tons, up 3.9 tons (0.9%) [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume is 8.7 tons, down 2.3 tons (-21%); the apparent demand of five major steel products is 866.9 tons, down 49.5 tons (-5.4%); the apparent demand of rebar is 218.5 tons, down 13.7 tons (-5.9%); the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil is 314.3 tons, down 17.6 tons (-5.3%) [2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders all show declines, and the basis of the 01 contract has different changes. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also have corresponding changes [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port and price indexes such as the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe all decline [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports is 3218.4 tons, up 1189.3 tons (58.6%); the global weekly shipping volume is 3213.8 tons, down 174.6 tons (-5.2%); the national monthly import volume is 11632.6 tons, up 1111.6 tons (10.6%) [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 mills is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.9%); the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports is 320.9 tons, down 15.5 tons (-4.6%); the national monthly pig iron output is 6604.6 tons, down 374.7 tons (-5.4%); the national monthly crude steel output is 7349.0 tons, down 387.8 tons (-5.0%) [4]. Inventory Changes - The port inventory at 45 ports is 14898.83 tons, up 184.8 tons (1.3%); the imported iron ore inventory of 247 mills is 6600.6 tons, up 160.1 tons (1.8%); the inventory available days of 64 mills is 21 days, unchanged [4]. Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) are unchanged. The coke 01 and 05 contracts decline, and the coking profit is down [7]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.6 tons, down 1.0 ton (-1.5%); the daily average output of 247 mills is 46.1 tons, down 0.1 ton (-0.34%) [7]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 mills is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.94%) [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory is 887.1 tons, down 13 tons (-1.4%); the coke inventories of coking plants, mills, and ports all decline [7]. Supply - demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap is -3.7 tons, down 0.1 ton (-2.2%) [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) are unchanged, while the prices of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) and coking coal 01 and 05 contracts decline. The sample coal mine profit is up [7]. Supply - The raw coal output is 848.4 tons, down 3.4 tons (-0.4%); the clean coal output is 433.0 tons, down 2.0 tons (-0.5%) [7]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coking production, with the daily average output of all - sample coking plants and 247 mills showing declines [7]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines is 80.4 tons, down 0.8 tons (-0.9%); the coking coal inventories of coking plants and ports increase, while those of mills decrease [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Glass - The domestic 5mm float glass market continued its downward trend last week, with prices in various regions generally decreasing by 30 - 90 yuan/ton. The market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with overall rising enterprise inventories, persistently sluggish downstream demand, and purchases mainly for刚需. There is a lack of substantial positive support. Affected by low - price supplies and rainy weather in some areas during the week, the trading pace further slowed down, and prices were under downward pressure. Although the increase in coal prices in the second half of the week strengthened cost support to some extent, the overall market sentiment remained bearish, and the price rebound momentum was insufficient. In the short term, the market lacks new driving factors and is expected to continue a weak and narrow - range oscillating trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the dynamic of enterprise cold repairs and the marginal changes in the expectation of the "anti - involution" policy [12][13]. Soda Ash - Last week, the prices of light and heavy soda ash in the northwest region decreased slightly. The industry supply continued to operate at a high level. Although the maintenance of individual enterprises provided some support to the local market, the overall production capacity base was large, and the supply pressure remained unchanged. There are still plans for individual devices to start up and resume production in the later stage. On the demand side, the downstream purchasing willingness is low, and they generally adopt a cautious strategy of replenishing inventory on demand and buying at low prices. Manufacturers have few new orders, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. Overall, the soda ash market is difficult to reverse the pattern of loose supply and demand in the short term. Prices are expected to remain stable and weak, and the trading center may further decline [56][57]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1092 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the basis was 48 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton. - **Cost and Profit**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 120.56 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40.72 yuan/ton; the low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was 113.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 26.44 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 48.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 42.86 yuan/ton. - **Supply**: The weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. - **Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 43.70%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. According to WIND data, from January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 65834.79 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the sales area of commercial housing was 8530.87 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.89%. According to CAAM data, in September, the production and sales of automobiles were 327.58/322.64 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 17.15%/14.86%; from January to September, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 2433.30/2436.30 million vehicles. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national float glass factories was 6661.3 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 233.74 million heavy boxes; the inventory of factories in the Shahe area was 582.8 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 60.40 million heavy boxes [12]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Basis**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1092 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the basis was 48 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of October 25, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 149 yuan/ton (- 15), the 05 - 09 spread was - 89 yuan/ton (- 5), the 09 - 01 spread was 238 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the open interest reached 1.9129 million lots [17][20]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 120.56 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40.72 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was 113.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 26.44 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 48.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 42.86 yuan/ton. - **Cost**: The low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton [26][29]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. - **Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 43.70%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 65834.79 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the sales area of commercial housing was 8530.87 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.89%. In September, the production and sales of automobiles were 327.58/322.64 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 17.15%/14.86%; from January to September, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 2433.30/2436.30 million vehicles [12][33][36]. 05. Inventory As of October 25, 2025, the inventory of national float glass factories was 6661.3 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 233.74 million heavy boxes; the inventory of factories in the Shahe area was 582.8 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 60.40 million heavy boxes [46]. Soda Ash 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1229 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the basis was - 55 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. - **Cost and Profit**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 92.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.70 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 199 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31.5 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 767 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/ton; the low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton. - **Supply**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 74.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.94%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55 tons; the output of light soda ash was 33.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 tons. - **Demand**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in August reached 3.1 million tons. - **Inventory**: As of October 25, 2025, the inventory of soda ash factories was 1.7021 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00016 million tons; the inventory available days were 14.11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 days. The inventory of heavy soda ash factories was 93.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 tons; the inventory of light soda ash factories was 76.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 tons [56]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Basis**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1229 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the basis was - 55 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of October 25, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 88 yuan/ton (- 2), the 05 - 09 spread was - 59 yuan/ton (+ 6), the 09 - 01 spread was 147 yuan/ton (- 4), and the open interest reached 1.9129 million lots [61][64]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 92.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.70 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 199 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31.5 yuan/ton. - **Cost**: The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 767 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/ton; the low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2142 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton [71][74][77]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 74.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.94%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55 tons; the output of light soda ash was 33.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 tons. - **Demand**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in August reached 3.1 million tons [81][84][87]. 05. Inventory As of October 25, 2025, the inventory of soda ash factories was 1.7021 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00016 million tons; the inventory available days were 14.11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 days. The inventory of heavy soda ash factories was 93.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 tons; the inventory of light soda ash factories was 76.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 tons [91][94].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年9月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅供应量为9万吨 | ， | | 环比持平 。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 | | 1万吨 . ， | | 环比减少1 . | 21% . | 需求持续低迷 | 多晶 . | | | | | | | 硅库存为21 1万吨 . | ， | 处于低位 ， | 硅片亏损 | ， | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Silicon Manganese**: Supply and demand are becoming more balanced, with weekly production increasing and the operating rate in Yunnan reaching a five - year high. Demand has some resilience. Manganese ore prices are weak and stable, while coal and coke are strong, providing some cost support. In the short term, it may have a weak rebound following market sentiment, and short - selling or waiting is advisable. Seasonally, there is a high probability of decline in September and October, and mid - term short - selling opportunities during the correction can be considered. The reference range for the main contract is [5500, 6150] [3][4]. - **Silicon Iron**: The current fundamentals are becoming looser, and the rising raw material prices at the cost end temporarily support the silicon iron price. The inventory pressure has been released this month, and the warehouse receipts have stopped increasing and started to decline, but the absolute level is still high, suppressing the upward space of the spot price in the short term. Seasonally, there is a high probability of decline in September and October, and mid - term short - selling opportunities during the correction can be considered. The reference range for the main contract is [5400, 6000] [46][47]. 3. Summary by Directory Silicon Manganese - **Market Review**: In August, the futures price fluctuated weakly, with the price center continuously moving down. As of August 25, 2025, the closing price of the manganese - silicon main contract was 5898 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 2.28% from the beginning of the month; the spot price in Jiangsu was 5800 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 98 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 25, the market price of 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5750 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan from the beginning of the month), 5780 yuan/ton in Guangxi (down 20 yuan from the beginning of the month), and 5800 yuan/ton in Jiangsu (down 150 yuan from the beginning of the month) [9]. - **Supply**: The silicon - manganese output in July totaled 81.96 million tons, and the total output in August is expected to be 91 - 92 million tons [10]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of molten iron in August remained above 2.4 million tons, but the output of rebar did not increase significantly and remained at a low level compared to the same period. The procurement price of silicon - manganese alloy by a landmark steel mill in August was 6200 yuan/ton, and the procurement volume was 16,100 tons, higher than the same period last year [3]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 156,000 tons, a decrease of 8000 tons from the beginning of the month; as of August 25, the total number of warehouse receipts was 68,900, a decrease of 8900 from the beginning of the month; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) decreased to 353,900 tons, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the beginning of the month [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in the north is about 5850 yuan/ton, and 6300 yuan/ton in the south. Currently, most production areas are in a loss state. Other costs: Coke has started the eighth round of price increases, and the price will remain strong in the short term. The electricity prices in the north and south production areas have changed little [4]. - **Manganese Ore Price**: The port manganese ore price fluctuated weakly. As of August 25, the price of Gabon lumps at Tianjin Port was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree (down 1 yuan from the beginning of the month), CML Australian lumps were 41.5 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.5 yuan from the beginning of the month), and South32 South African semi - carbonate was 34.2 yuan/ton - degree (down 1.3 yuan from the beginning of the month) [23]. - **Manganese Ore Import**: In July 2025, China's total manganese ore import volume was 2.744 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 20.0%. Among them, the import volume of South African manganese ore was 1.365 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; the import volume of Australian ore was 407,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 81.4% and a year - on - year increase of 382.2%; the import volume of Gabonese manganese ore was 486,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 154.8% and a year - on - year increase of 44.0% [28]. Silicon Iron - **Market Review**: In August, the futures price fluctuated weakly, with the price center continuously moving down. As of August 25, 2025, the closing price of the silicon - iron main contract was 5680 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 2.64% from the beginning of the month; the spot price in Jiangsu was 5600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 80 yuan/ton [50]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in the main production areas decreased by 150 - 250 yuan/ton this month [51]. - **Supply**: The silicon - iron output in July totaled 446,700 tons, and the total output in August is expected to be 490,000 - 500,000 tons [53]. - **Demand - Steelmaking**: As of August 22, the weekly demand for silicon iron was 20,313.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38 tons. In July 2025, China's crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; from January to July, the cumulative crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [56]. - **Demand - Non - steel**: In July, the output of magnesium ingots totaled 73,374 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1664 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.46%; in July 2025, China's silicon - iron export volume totaled 35,946 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1224 tons; from January to July, the cumulative silicon - iron export volume was 235,994 tons, a decrease of 12,239 tons (a decline of 4.9%) compared to the same period last year [62]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 62,100 tons, a decrease of 3500 tons from the beginning of the month; as of August 25, the total number of warehouse receipts was 20,200, a decrease of 1800 from the beginning of the month; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) totaled 109,700 tons, a decrease of 5500 tons from the beginning of the month [46]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in the production areas has increased slightly, and most of the industry is in a loss state. Currently, the production cost in Ningxia is 5388 yuan/ton (the lowest), and the spot profit is - 88 yuan/ton; the production cost in Gansu is 5609 yuan/ton (the highest), and the spot profit is about - 259 yuan/ton [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - For methanol, port inventory has significantly accumulated, imports are high leading to high inventory, and the expected return of inland supply is on the horizon. As traditional demand enters the peak season later, it's necessary to focus on whether demand can support after the return of inland supply. If inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol may experience a valuation decline [1] - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year-on-year, with the upstream accumulating inventory and the coal - chemical sector reducing inventory. The overall inventory is neutral, with the 09 basis around -150 in North China and -100 in East China. Import profit is around -100 with no further increase for now. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [5] - For polypropylene, the upstream two - oil inventory is accumulating while the mid - stream is reducing inventory. The basis is -60, and the non - standard price difference is neutral. Exports have been good this year. With over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated to neutral if exports continue to expand or PDH device maintenance increases [5] - For PVC, the basis remains at 09 - 150, and the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The mid - upstream inventory reduction has slowed down. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders should be monitored [5] Summary by Product Methanol - Price data shows that from 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, the daily change of动力煤期货is 0, Jiangsu spot drops by 18, and other regional prices also have different degrees of decline [1] Polyethylene - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Northeast Asia ethylene price remains unchanged, while prices in North China LL and East China LL decline, and other data also show corresponding changes [5] Polypropylene - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Shandong propylene and Northeast Asia propylene prices remain stable, while prices in East China PP and other regions decline, and the basis changes from -50 to -60 [5] PVC - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Northwest calcium carbide price drops by 50, Shandong caustic soda price rises by 20, and other prices also show corresponding changes, with the basis (high - end delivery product) changing from -70 to -170 [5]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views Plastic - In the transition phase between the off - season and peak season, the plastic 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The recommended range for attention is 7200 - 7500, and it is advised to go short on rallies. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, Sino - US talks, domestic policies, and crude oil price fluctuations [5]. PP - The PP futures face significant upward pressure. In the short term, the PP2509 contract is expected to fluctuate. The recommended range for attention is 6900 - 7200, and it is advised to go short on rallies. Key factors to monitor are similar to those for plastic [7]. Summary by Directory Plastic Weekly Market Review - On August 15, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7351 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan/ton from the previous week. The average price of LDPE was 9633.33 yuan/ton, a 1.05% week - on - week increase; HDPE was 8012.50 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase; and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7525.29 yuan/ton, a 0.67% increase. The LLDPE South China basis was 174.29 yuan/ton, a 5.94% decrease, and the 6 - 9 spread was 22 yuan/ton (down 48) [5][9]. Key Data Tracking - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $62.29 per barrel, down $1.06 from the previous week; Brent crude was at $66.13 per barrel, down $0.19. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (up 20) [5][19]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 164 yuan/ton, up 188 yuan/ton from the previous week; coal - based PE was 930 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton. It is expected that the profit of oil - based PE will strengthen and that of coal - based PE will weaken [24]. - **Supply**: China's polyethylene production capacity utilization rate was 84.20%, up 0.12 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output was 66.11 tons, a 0.14% increase. The maintenance loss was 7.22 tons, down 0.65 tons [27]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of agricultural film was 13.82%, up 0.75%; PE packaging film was 49.07%, down 0.23%; and PE pipes was 30.00%, up 1.00% [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 56.86 tons, down 0.71 tons from the previous week, a 1.23% decrease [5][37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 7345 lots, up 1523 lots from the previous week [41]. PP Weekly Market Review - On August 15, the closing price of polypropylene 2509 was 7084 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spot price of PP reported by Shengyi was 7246.67 yuan/ton (unchanged). The PP basis was 163 yuan/ton (down 22), and the 5 - 9 spread was 24 yuan/ton (down 2) [7][45]. Key Data Tracking - **Cost**: Similar to plastic, WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreased, and the anthracite price at the Yangtze River port increased [5][58]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 149.67 yuan/ton, up 193.84 yuan/ton from the previous week; coal - based PP was 439.56 yuan/ton, down 79.73 yuan/ton [7][62]. - **Supply**: China's PP petrochemical enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.91%, up 0.60 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets was 78.31 tons, a 0.77% increase; PP powder was 7.00 tons, a 3.41% increase [7][67]. - **Demand**: The average downstream operating rate was 49.35% (up 0.30%). The operating rates of plastic weaving, BOPP, injection molding, and pipes were 41.40% (up 0.30%), 61.30% (up 0.33%), 56.73% (unchanged), and 36.30% (up 0.07%) respectively [7][74]. - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit of polypropylene was - $525.85 per ton, down $5.42 from the previous week; the export profit was - $12.76 per ton, down $3.02. The import window was closed, and the export window was open [78]. - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of polypropylene was 58.75 tons (+0.07%); the inventory of the two major oil companies increased by 2.60% week - on - week; the trader inventory decreased by 4.06%; and the port inventory decreased by 0.98%. The finished - product inventory of large plastic - weaving enterprises was 913.87 tons, a 2.70% decrease, and the BOPP raw - material inventory was 8.96 days, a 0.11% increase [80][82]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On August 5, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 12860 lots, up 320 lots from the previous week [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate has increased this week, and the refineries have increased production, which will increase supply pressure next week [8]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average, with the heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membrane开工率 (operating rates) mostly lower than the historical average, while the modified asphalt and road - modified asphalt开工率 are higher [8]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 696.98 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00%, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 760.1786 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [9]. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3505 - 3551 [10]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support; the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The planned production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The weekly capacity utilization rate is 34.7555%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.835 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 580,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 12.40%, and the device maintenance volume is estimated to be 604,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.91% [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 33.1%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 16.1987%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.74 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 27%, unchanged month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 29%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 696.98 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00%, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 760.1786 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10.25% [9]. - **Expectation**: The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3505 - 3551 [10]. - **Other Factors**: The positive factor is the relatively high - level crude oil cost; the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Fundamentals**: Bearish, as the supply pressure is high and the demand recovery is weak [8][15]. - **Basis**: On August 7, the Shandong spot price is 3760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 232 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [11]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.343 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%; the in - factory inventory is 700,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 110,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.25%. All inventories are decreasing. Bullish [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the 10 - contract futures price closes below the MA20. Bearish [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increases. Bullish [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, it's advisable to consider long - positions at low prices [2]. - Polyethylene: The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. Import profit is around - 100 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, while LD is weakening. Domestic linear production will increase in August. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new plant commissioning [6]. - Polypropylene: Upstream inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is increasing, while mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, and non - standard price spreads are neutral. Export performance is good this year. Supply is expected to increase slightly in June. In an over - capacity context, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be mitigated by strong exports or more PDH plant maintenance [6]. - PVC: The basis remains at 09 - 150, and downstream开工 is seasonally weak. Mid - and upstream inventory de - stocking is slowing down. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in July - August. Current static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, and cost is stabilizing. Focus on exports, coal prices, real - estate sales, terminal orders, and开工 [6]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From July 23 to July 29, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2417 to 2395, and the Northwest discounted to the futures price decreased from 2638 to 2625. The import profit remained unchanged, and the main contract basis decreased from - 12 to - 18 [2]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From July 23 to July 29, 2025, Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 820. The North China LL price remained at 7230, and the main contract futures price increased from 7288 to 7385. The basis decreased from - 120 to - 160 [6]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From July 23 to July 29, 2025, Shandong propylene price decreased from 6300 to 6190. The East China PP price decreased from 7090 to 7055, and the main contract futures price increased from 7096 to 7160. The basis decreased from - 50 to - 90 [6]. PVC - Price Data: From July 23 to July 29, 2025, Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2250 to 2200, and Shandong caustic soda price increased from 842 to 862. The calcium carbide - based East China PVC price decreased from 5070 to 5030, and the basis (high - end delivery product) remained at - 80 [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the 22nd, both industrial silicon and polysilicon hit the daily limit. The main contract of industrial silicon 2509 closed at 9,655 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 5.98%, and the position decreased by 2,335 lots to 381,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,507 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rose to 9,150 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 275 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated upwards, with the main contract 2509 closing at 49,105 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 8.99%, and the position increased by 20,122 lots to 192,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 45,550 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 45,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount widening to 3,865 yuan/ton [2]. - The energy bureau issued a notice on coal mine production review, and the cancellation of electricity price subsidies in Xinjiang strengthened the logic of rising industrial silicon costs. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reiterated the signal of resolutely combating involution in multiple industries, giving market bulls sufficient confidence, and the double-silicon futures continued to reach new highs. Supported by macro - policies, the futures are more likely to rise than fall. Attention should be paid to the PS/SI price ratio and the potential upward pull expectation before the implementation of policies [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 9,110 yuan/ton on the 21st to 9,470 yuan/ton on the 22nd, a rise of 360 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon also generally increased, with the price increase ranging from 100 - 350 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose from 8,900 yuan/ton to 9,150 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from -185 yuan/ton to -275 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 45,660 yuan/ton on the 21st to 4,9105 yuan/ton on the 22nd, a rise of 3,445 yuan/ton. Among the spot prices, the price of N-type granular silicon increased by 9,000 yuan/ton, and the price of P-type polysilicon increased by 3,500 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose from 43,500 yuan/ton to 45,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from -2,160 yuan/ton to -3,865 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 88 lots, the industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 1,400 tons, the polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the polysilicon social inventory decreased by 0.5 tons [4]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10] 2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16] 2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, industrial silicon factory warehouses, industrial silicon weekly industry inventory, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][22] 2.4 Cost - Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]