晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 16 日 核心结论 分析师 【银行】因势而谋，重构平衡：商业银行债券配置回顾与展望 预计 2026 年银行仍维持一定配债需求，力度或略强于今年，测算得 26E 银 行债券配置金额 9.19 万亿元，同比增速 5.4%。 【国防军工】国防军工行业 2026 年度投资策略：十五五内需筑基，军贸突 围、民用开拓 重点关注：（1）军机航发链建议关注：光启技术，航发动力，图南股份，隆 达股份、航亚科技；（2）红外技术军民两用，建议关注：高德红外，睿创微 纳；（3）激光武器具备较高的反无人机领域应用前景，建议关注：锐科激光； （4）地缘冲突不断加剧，建议关注军贸催化受益标的：中航沈飞、中航成 飞、航天南湖、国睿科技等；（5）军转民为军工企业带来长期α，建议关注： 陕西华达、高华科技、佰奥智能等。 【宏观】11 月经济数据点评：化解供强需弱矛盾需进一步扩大内需 11 月工业和服务业同比增速继续回落；消费增速回落，受高基数和"双十 一"拖累；投资跌幅仍然较大；房地产市场持续下跌。当前经济增长动能仍 然偏弱，尤其是内需仍然偏弱。化解供强需弱矛盾需进一步扩大内需。 【家用电器】家用 ...

1.1 违约数量和规模均大幅下降，信用环境有所改善 2025年，信用债违约数量和金额延续去年的下滑趋势，年初至今共有16只信用债发生违约，违约金额合计150.84亿元，同比2024年分别减少54只和771.45 亿元。从历年违约情况来看，违约金额于2021年达到历史峰值后逐年下滑，信用环境不断改善。从违约类型来看，2014-2025年，信用债市场以实质违约 为主（73.4%），仅22和23年展期数量反超实质违约。今年共有11只信用债为实质违约，剩余5只为展期。 西部固收对2025年的信用债违约情况进行分析和总结，为投资者防范识别信用风险提供参考。在开始分析前先明确统计口径，此处的违约为广义口径，即 除了实质违约以外，技术性违约、交叉违约和展期均包含在内。 1.2 首次违约主体均为非国有企业，地产行业违约数量减少 2025年首次违约的16只债券来自12家发行人，均为非国有企业。从行业分布来看，12家主体共涉及房地产、综合、建筑装饰、非银金融、商贸零售和汽车 6个行业，其中房地产业主体数最多（4家），其次为非银金融（3家）。 | 企业 | 违约债券数 | 违约金额 | 违约类型 | 企业性质 | 所属行业 | 违 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the number and scale of credit bond defaults decreased significantly, and the credit environment improved. The number of defaulted bonds was 16, with a total default amount of 15.084 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 54 bonds and 77.145 billion yuan respectively [1][11]. - All first - time defaulting entities in 2025 were non - state - owned enterprises, and the number of defaults in the real estate industry decreased. Looking ahead to 2026, real estate may still be the main risk point in the credit bond market, and local risks of some weak - qualified small and medium - sized financial institutions should be vigilant, but the probability of a systemic impact on the market is low [1][13]. - The default rate dropped to a historically low level. In 2025, the marginal default rate was 0.22%, the second - lowest since 2014 [1][22]. - Last week, after an important meeting released a signal of monetary easing, credit bond yields turned downward in the second half of the week but the repair momentum was weak. Looking forward, due to the impact of wealth management funds returning to the balance sheet at the end of the quarter, incremental funds may be limited, and there is insufficient impetus to compress credit spreads. It is recommended to focus on the coupon strategy [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Credit Bond Market Default Feature Summary - **Default Quantity and Scale Decreased Significantly, Credit Environment Improved**: In 2025, the number and amount of defaulted credit bonds continued the downward trend of the previous year. There were 16 defaulted bonds with a total amount of 15.084 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 54 bonds and 77.145 billion yuan respectively. From 2014 - 2025, substantial defaults were the main type in the credit bond market (73.4%), and in 2025, there were 11 substantial defaults and 5 extensions [11]. - **First - time Defaulting Entities were All Non - state - owned Enterprises, Real Estate Industry Default Quantity Decreased**: The 16 first - time defaulted bonds in 2025 came from 12 non - state - owned enterprise issuers, covering 6 industries such as real estate and non - bank finance. Historically, non - state - owned enterprises had significantly more defaults than state - owned enterprises. The real estate industry was still the main risk point in 2026, and local risks of some small and medium - sized financial institutions should be watched out for [13][17]. - **Default Rate Dropped to a Historically Low Level**: In 2025, the marginal default rate was 0.22%, the second - lowest since 2014. The overall recovery rate from 2014 to 2025 was 13.76%, with state - owned enterprises having a higher recovery rate of 27.12% than non - state - owned enterprises at 10.28% [22]. 3.2 Credit Bond Yield Overview - Last week, after an important meeting released a signal of monetary easing, credit bond yields turned downward in the second half of the week but the repair momentum was weak. Overall, credit bond yields showed mixed trends, with financial bonds performing better than non - financial credit bonds, and the 3 - year non - financial credit bonds performing better [27]. - Wealth management scale and the proportion of broken - net products decreased. The average yield of wealth management products had been declining for 6 consecutive weeks since early November. Looking forward, due to the impact of wealth management funds returning to the balance sheet at the end of the quarter, incremental funds may be limited, and there is insufficient impetus to compress credit spreads. It is recommended to focus on the coupon strategy. Institutions with stable liability ends can moderately participate in 3 - year medium - and high - grade bank secondary and perpetual bonds and securities firm subordinated bonds with relatively high spreads [29][36]. 3.3 Primary Market - **Issuance Volume**: Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while the net financing scale decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The net financing scale of urban investment bonds and financial bonds decreased month - on - month, while that of industrial bonds increased [37]. - **Issuance Cost**: The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds increased slightly. The average issuance interest rate of urban investment bonds increased month - on - month, while that of industrial and financial bonds decreased [45]. - **Issuance Term**: The average issuance term of credit bonds decreased month - on - month. The issuance terms of industrial and financial bonds decreased, while that of urban investment bonds increased [47]. - **Cancellation of Issuance**: The number and scale of cancelled credit bond issuances decreased last week [53]. 3.4 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Except for the trading volume of securities firm subordinated bonds, the trading volume of other types of credit bonds rebounded last week, with the trading volume of bank secondary capital bonds increasing by over 13 billion yuan. The trading terms of different types of bonds showed different trends in terms of remaining maturity and implied rating [57][58]. - **Trading Liquidity**: The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased last week. The turnover rates of different terms of each type of bond also showed different trends [59]. - **Spread Tracking**: Last week, most urban investment bond spreads widened, with the 10 - year AA + grade urban investment bond spreads widening the most. Most industrial bond spreads also widened, with the real estate industry having the largest spread widening for both AAA and AA grades. Most bank secondary and perpetual bond spreads narrowed, while the spreads of securities firm subordinated bonds widened across the board, and most insurance subordinated bond spreads narrowed [65][73][76]. 3.5 Weekly Hot Bonds Overview Based on qeubee's bond liquidity scoring, the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores were selected for investors' reference [80]. 3.6 Credit Rating Adjustment Review Last week, 3 bonds had their debt ratings downgraded, and there were no upgrades [84].