Core Viewpoint - The launch of the centralized bond lending business by the Central Clearing Company and the Interbank Lending Center aims to enhance market liquidity, improve settlement efficiency, and mitigate settlement risks in the bond market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Business Launch and Participation - On the first day of launch, 78 institutions participated, including 21 securities firms such as CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and Huatai Securities [2]. - The centralized bond lending service is designed to provide automatic lending services in the interbank bond market, allowing institutions to manage their positions more effectively [4]. Group 2: Bond Pool and Market Impact - The bond pool for lending exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan, covering various types of bonds including government bonds, corporate bonds, and asset-backed securities [3]. - The top ten institutions contributing to the bond pool include major banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank [3]. Group 3: Operational Mechanism - The lending process involves voluntary participation from lenders, who set parameters and establish available bonds for lending, creating a bond pool [4]. - The lending period is set between a minimum of 1 day and a maximum of 3 days, with rates based on historical transaction fees [4].

Group 1 - The central bond registration and settlement company and the interbank lending center have launched a centralized bond lending business, indicating a significant development in the bond lending market [1] - A total of 78 institutions participated in the initial launch, covering a wide range of institution types including state-owned commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, city commercial banks, foreign banks, rural commercial banks, rural credit cooperatives, securities companies, and financial leasing companies [1] - On the first day of operation, the bond pool for lending exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan, including various types of bonds such as government bonds, local government bonds, policy bank bonds, government-supported institution bonds, commercial bank bonds, non-bank financial institution bonds, corporate bonds, and credit asset-backed securities [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Bond Research Weekly for the 4th week of September 2025, focusing on bond market analysis from the perspective of institutional behavior [2][9] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The behavior of funds is crucial in the bond market, with their net purchases strongly correlated with interest rate trends. The instability of funds' liability side has increased due to the new sales fee regulations, and the impact of the regulations' implementation should be closely monitored [4][15] - The three institutional behavior changes (funds having nothing left to sell, brokerages closing short positions, and banks "picking up bargains") are favorable for the bond market. Future interest rates may decline due to funds repurchasing bonds, banks increasing allocations, and brokerages closing positions. Currently, interest rate products have a higher probability of success than Tier 2 and credit bonds [4][15] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Re - examination after Interest Rate Breakthrough 1.1 Three Changes in Institutional Behavior and Future Outlook - Funds are "sold out": Since Q3, funds have continuously reduced duration. As of September 26, 2025, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds (including leverage) dropped to 2.8 years, and the cumulative net purchase of ultra - long treasury bonds (over 10Y) by funds has been negative since early September [3][9] - Brokerages are closing short positions: The borrowing volume of the top three active 10Y treasury bonds remains volatile, while that of 10Y CDB bonds has decreased, indicating brokerage short - position closing before the holiday [10] - Banks are "picking up bargains": Since August, joint - stock banks have continuously bought old 10Y treasury bonds, acting as a "buffer" during the bond market correction. Recently, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have corrected rapidly, and funds are selling Tier 2 bonds more aggressively [3][14] 1.2 Yield Curve - Treasury bond yields generally increased. On a week - on - week basis, the 1Y yield decreased by 1bp, the 3Y yield increased by 3bp, the 5Y yield changed less than 1bp, the 7Y yield increased by 1bp, the 10Y yield changed less than 1bp, the 15Y yield increased by 1.5bp, and the 30Y yield increased by 2bp. In terms of percentiles, the 1Y dropped to the 10% percentile, and others had various percentile changes [16][18] - CDB bond yields also generally increased. The 1Y yield decreased by 0.5bp, the 3Y yield increased by 2bp, the 5Y yield increased by about 2.3bp, the 7Y yield increased by 4.6bp, the 10Y yield increased by 1.1bp, the 15Y yield increased by about 4.6bp, and the 30Y yield increased by 4.9bp. Percentiles also had corresponding changes [18] 1.3 Term Spread - The spread between treasury bonds and CDB bonds (1Y - DR001, 1Y - DR007) showed a differentiated trend, and the term spread generally widened [19] 2. Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation 2.1 Leverage Ratio - From September 22 to September 26, 2025, the leverage ratio fluctuated and decreased. As of September 26, it was about 107.06%, up 0.32pct from last Friday and down 0.04pct from Monday [23] 2.2 Repurchase Transactions - From September 22 to September 26, the average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase was about 7.3 trillion yuan, up 0.1 trillion yuan from last week. The average daily trading volume of overnight pledged repurchase was 5.55 trillion yuan, down 0.72 trillion yuan month - on - month. The average overnight trading volume ratio was 75.72%, down 11.92pct month - on - month [27][28] 2.3 Funding Situation - From September 22 to September 26, bank - based fund lending first increased and then decreased. On September 26, the net lending of large and policy banks was 4.09 trillion yuan, and joint - stock, city, and rural commercial banks had a net borrowing of 0.28 trillion yuan. The main fund borrowers were brokerages, and money market funds' lending decreased. DR007, R007, 1YFR007, and 5YFR007 all fluctuated and increased, with different changes compared to last Friday [30] 3. Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds 3.1 Overall Duration - From September 22 to September 26, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 2.68 years (de - leveraged) and 2.79 years (including leverage). On September 26, the median duration (de - leveraged) remained unchanged from last Friday, and the median duration (including leverage) decreased by 0.01 year [41] 3.2 Duration by Bond Fund Type - As of September 26, the median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) dropped to 3.53 years, down 0.01 year from last Friday; the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) dropped to 2.52 years, up 0.01 year from last Friday. The de - leveraged durations also had corresponding changes [44] 4. Category Strategy Comparison - As of September 26, the Sino - US spread generally narrowed, and the implied tax rate (10Y CDB - treasury bond spread) narrowed at the short end and widened at the medium - and long - ends [48] 5. Bond Lending Balance Changes - On September 26, the lending concentration of active 10Y treasury bonds and 10Y CDB bonds increased, that of secondary active 10Y CDB bonds and active 30Y treasury bonds decreased, and that of secondary active 10Y treasury bonds remained unchanged. Except for brokerages, all other institutional lending concentrations increased [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market yield curve remained steep this week, with the 10Y maturity yield fluctuating around 1.85% and the 1Y Treasury bond maturity yield at 1.40%. The term spreads of 30Y - 10Y and 10Y CDB - 10Y Treasury bonds widened, and the curve steepening continued [3][11]. - There are two "certainties" in the current bond market. First, driven by large - banks' continuous buying of short - term bonds, the short - end is more stable, and the expectation of the central bank buying bonds in the fourth quarter is rising. Second, the anti - decline of credit bonds is expected to continue under the loose funds [3][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Institutional Behavior Review: Two "Certainties" in the Bond Market 3.1.1 Yield Curve - Treasury bond yields generally increased. The 1Y yield decreased by 1bp, while the 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 15Y, and 30Y yields increased by about 1bp, 1bp, 5bp, 1bp, 2bp, and 2bp respectively. For CDB bonds, short - end yields increased, and mid - end yields decreased. The 1Y yield increased by 5bp, the 3Y yield increased by 4bp, and the 5Y yield decreased by about 3bp [14]. 3.1.2 Term Spreads - For Treasury bonds, the interest rate spread inversion deepened, and the long - end spreads narrowed. For CDB bonds, the interest rate spread inversion deepened, and the short - end spreads narrowed [16][17]. 3.2 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation 3.2.1 Leverage Ratio - From September 15 to September 19, 2025, the leverage ratio decreased weekly. As of September 19, it was about 106.91%, down 0.12pct from last Friday and 0.17pct from Monday [21]. 3.2.2 Average Daily Turnover of Pledged Repurchase - From September 15 to September 19, the average daily turnover of pledged repurchase was about 7.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.33 trillion yuan from last week. The average daily overnight turnover accounted for 87.64%, a decrease of 0.79pct [27][28]. 3.2.3 Funding Situation - From September 15 to September 19, bank - related funds' net lending first decreased and then increased. The main funds' borrowers were securities firms, and money market funds' net lending increased fluctuantly. DR007 and R007 first increased and then decreased. 1YFR007 and 5YFR007 increased fluctuantly [32][33]. 3.3 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds 3.3.1 Median Duration - This week (September 15 - September 19), the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 2.68 years (de - leveraged) and 2.8 years (leveraged). On September 19, the de - leveraged median duration decreased by 0.01 years compared with last Friday, and the leveraged median duration increased by 0.02 years [44]. 3.3.2 Duration by Bond Fund Type - The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (leveraged) decreased to 3.55 years, down 0.12 years from last Friday. The median duration of credit bond funds (leveraged) increased to 2.51 years, up 0.03 years from last Friday [47]. 3.4 Comparison of Category Strategies 3.4.1 Sino - US Yield Spread - The short - end spread widened, and the medium - and long - end spread narrowed. The 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y spreads widened by 5bp, 5bp, and about 3bp respectively, while the 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y spreads narrowed [52]. 3.4.2 Implied Tax Rate - The short - end implied tax rate widened, and the mid - end narrowed. As of September 19, the 1Y, 3Y, and 30Y spreads of CDB - Treasury bonds widened, while the 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 15Y spreads narrowed [53]. 3.5 Changes in Bond Lending Balance - On September 19, the lending concentration of the second - most active 10Y CDB bond increased, while that of the active 10Y Treasury bond, the second - most active 10Y Treasury bond, the active 10Y CDB bond, and the active 30Y Treasury bond decreased. Except for large banks, all other institutions saw a decline [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The pricing power of funds in the bond market has further increased, and there are still short - term long - trading opportunities. The high correlation between funds and interest rate trends has been further strengthened this year, and low interest rate fluctuations imply the enhancement of funds' pricing power in the bond market. Some "unexplained" interest rate increases may be due to the lack of bond - receiving institutions. The impact of fund institutional behavior on interest rate fluctuations may further expand, and short - term redemption pressure is controllable [2][11][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Institutional Behavior Review - **Correlation between funds and interest rates**: The high correlation between funds and interest rate trends is not new. Since 2024, the behavior of funds and interest rate trends have shown high correlation, and this year, the low - level fluctuation of interest rates has implied the further improvement of funds' pricing power in the bond market, which may be related to bank wealth management outsourcing [2][11][12] - **"Unexplained" interest rate increases**: This phenomenon may be related to the lack of bond - receiving institutions. Insurance institutions have reduced their allocation of national bonds since 2024, and rural commercial banks' intention to buy more as the interest rate adjusts is gradually decreasing [15] 3.2 Yield Curve - **Treasury bonds**: Short - term yields increased, while medium - and long - term yields decreased. The 1Y yield increased by 3bp, the 3Y yield increased by 1bp, the 5Y yield decreased by 2bp, the 7Y yield decreased by 1bp, the 10Y yield decreased by 1bp, the 15Y yield increased by 3bp, and the 30Y yield decreased by 3bp [17] - **China Development Bank bonds**: Yields decreased overall. The 1Y yield increased by 1bp, the 3Y yield decreased by 1bp, the 5Y yield decreased by about 2bp, the 7Y yield decreased by 2bp, the 10Y yield decreased by about 1bp, the 15Y yield decreased by 2bp, and the 30Y yield decreased by 1bp [17] 3.3 Term Spread - **Treasury bonds**: The interest spread increased, and the short - term spread narrowed while the long - term spread was differentiated. The 1Y - DR001 interest spread remained flat overall, and the 1Y - DR007 interest spread increased by 10bp [20] - **China Development Bank bonds**: The interest spread increased, and the short - term spread narrowed while the long - term spread was differentiated. The 1Y - DR001 interest spread increased by 2bp, and the 1Y - DR007 interest spread increased by about 8bp [22] 3.4 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation - **Leverage ratio**: It decreased to 107.14%. From September 1st to September 5th, 2025, the leverage ratio fluctuated and increased within the week. As of September 5th, it was about 107.14%, up 0.30pct from last Friday and 0.07pct from Monday [25] - **Average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase**: From September 1st to September 5th, the average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase was about 7.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.24 trillion yuan compared with last week. The average daily trading volume of overnight pledged repurchase was 7.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.43 trillion yuan month - on - month. The average overnight trading volume accounted for 88.35%, an increase of 2.89pct month - on - month [28][33] - **Funding situation**: Bank - based fund outflows first increased and then decreased. The main fund inflow party was funds, and the outflows of money market funds first decreased and then increased. DR007 and R007 fluctuated and decreased [34] 3.5 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median duration**: The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds decreased. As of September 5th, the median duration (de - leveraged) was 2.77 years, a decrease of 0.04 years from last Friday; the median duration (including leverage) was 2.95 years, a decrease of 0.16 years from last Friday [45] - **Duration of different types of bond funds**: The median duration (including leverage) of interest - rate bond funds decreased to 3.75 years, a decrease of 0.16 years from last Friday; the median duration (including leverage) of credit bond funds decreased to 2.72 years, a decrease of 0.12 years from last Friday [51] 3.6 Category Strategy Comparison - **Sino - US interest rate spread**: It widened overall. The 1Y spread widened by 23bp, the 2Y spread widened by about 12bp, the 3Y spread widened by 13bp, the 5Y spread widened by 8bp, the 7Y spread widened by 11bp, the 10Y spread widened by 11bp, and the 30Y spread widened by 7bp [55] - **Implied tax rate**: The short - term spread narrowed, and the long - term spread was differentiated. As of September 5th, the 1Y spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds narrowed by about 1bp, the 3Y spread narrowed by 2bp, the 5Y spread changed by less than 1bp, the 7Y spread narrowed by 1bp, the 10Y spread widened by 1bp, the 15Y spread narrowed by 5bp, and the 30Y spread widened by 2bp [56] 3.7 Bond Lending Balance Changes - On September 5th, the lending concentration of active 10Y treasury bonds, active 10Y China Development Bank bonds, and active 30Y treasury bonds increased; the lending concentration of the second - active 10Y China Development Bank bonds decreased, and the lending concentration of the second - active 10Y treasury bonds remained unchanged. In terms of institutions, the lending of large - scale banks and other institutions decreased, while that of small - and medium - sized banks and securities firms increased [57]

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