（文章来源：新华财经） 业务上线首日，融券池债券规模突破1.3万亿元，涵盖国债、地方政府债、政策性银行债、政府支持机 构债、商业银行债、非银行金融机构债、企业债券、信贷资产支持证券等品种。 新华财经北京10月10日电（王菁）新华财经10日获悉，中央国债登记结算有限责任公司（简称中央结算 公司）与全国银行间同业拆借中心（简称同业拆借中心）联合推出集中债券借贷业务。债券借贷市场活 跃机构踊跃参与，首批参与机构共计78家，机构类型全面覆盖国有大型商业银行、股份制商业银行、城 市商业银行、外资法人银行、农村商业银行、农村信用社、证券公司、金融租赁公司等。 ...

| 研究所： | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 颜子琦 | S0350525090002 | | | | | yanzq@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 郭溪源 | S0350125090019 | | | | guoxy@ghzq.com.cn | | 最近一年走势 相关报告 《固定收益专题研究：转债抢权配售策略怎么看？ *颜子琦，范圣哲》——2025-09-24 《固定收益点评：债市性价比如何？*靳毅》—— 2025-09-08 《债券研究周报：存款搬家进行时，对债市影响几 何*靳毅，刘畅》——2025-09-02 2025 年 09 月 29 日 债券研究周报 《固定收益点评：9 月资金面怎么看？*靳毅》—— 2025-09-01 《固定收益专题研究：本轮牛市，可转债怎么看？ *靳毅，范圣哲》——2025-08-31 [Table_Title] 从三个细节谈起，债券调整到位了吗？ 债市机构行为周报（9 月第 4 周） 投资要点： 利率破位后，机构行为的三大变化与后续展望 9 月第 4 周债市走势震荡，根据 Wind 统计，截 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market yield curve remained steep this week, with the 10Y maturity yield fluctuating around 1.85% and the 1Y Treasury bond maturity yield at 1.40%. The term spreads of 30Y - 10Y and 10Y CDB - 10Y Treasury bonds widened, and the curve steepening continued [3][11]. - There are two "certainties" in the current bond market. First, driven by large - banks' continuous buying of short - term bonds, the short - end is more stable, and the expectation of the central bank buying bonds in the fourth quarter is rising. Second, the anti - decline of credit bonds is expected to continue under the loose funds [3][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Institutional Behavior Review: Two "Certainties" in the Bond Market 3.1.1 Yield Curve - Treasury bond yields generally increased. The 1Y yield decreased by 1bp, while the 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 15Y, and 30Y yields increased by about 1bp, 1bp, 5bp, 1bp, 2bp, and 2bp respectively. For CDB bonds, short - end yields increased, and mid - end yields decreased. The 1Y yield increased by 5bp, the 3Y yield increased by 4bp, and the 5Y yield decreased by about 3bp [14]. 3.1.2 Term Spreads - For Treasury bonds, the interest rate spread inversion deepened, and the long - end spreads narrowed. For CDB bonds, the interest rate spread inversion deepened, and the short - end spreads narrowed [16][17]. 3.2 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation 3.2.1 Leverage Ratio - From September 15 to September 19, 2025, the leverage ratio decreased weekly. As of September 19, it was about 106.91%, down 0.12pct from last Friday and 0.17pct from Monday [21]. 3.2.2 Average Daily Turnover of Pledged Repurchase - From September 15 to September 19, the average daily turnover of pledged repurchase was about 7.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.33 trillion yuan from last week. The average daily overnight turnover accounted for 87.64%, a decrease of 0.79pct [27][28]. 3.2.3 Funding Situation - From September 15 to September 19, bank - related funds' net lending first decreased and then increased. The main funds' borrowers were securities firms, and money market funds' net lending increased fluctuantly. DR007 and R007 first increased and then decreased. 1YFR007 and 5YFR007 increased fluctuantly [32][33]. 3.3 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds 3.3.1 Median Duration - This week (September 15 - September 19), the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 2.68 years (de - leveraged) and 2.8 years (leveraged). On September 19, the de - leveraged median duration decreased by 0.01 years compared with last Friday, and the leveraged median duration increased by 0.02 years [44]. 3.3.2 Duration by Bond Fund Type - The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (leveraged) decreased to 3.55 years, down 0.12 years from last Friday. The median duration of credit bond funds (leveraged) increased to 2.51 years, up 0.03 years from last Friday [47]. 3.4 Comparison of Category Strategies 3.4.1 Sino - US Yield Spread - The short - end spread widened, and the medium - and long - end spread narrowed. The 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y spreads widened by 5bp, 5bp, and about 3bp respectively, while the 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y spreads narrowed [52]. 3.4.2 Implied Tax Rate - The short - end implied tax rate widened, and the mid - end narrowed. As of September 19, the 1Y, 3Y, and 30Y spreads of CDB - Treasury bonds widened, while the 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 15Y spreads narrowed [53]. 3.5 Changes in Bond Lending Balance - On September 19, the lending concentration of the second - most active 10Y CDB bond increased, while that of the active 10Y Treasury bond, the second - most active 10Y Treasury bond, the active 10Y CDB bond, and the active 30Y Treasury bond decreased. Except for large banks, all other institutions saw a decline [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The pricing power of funds in the bond market has further increased, and there are still short - term long - trading opportunities. The high correlation between funds and interest rate trends has been further strengthened this year, and low interest rate fluctuations imply the enhancement of funds' pricing power in the bond market. Some "unexplained" interest rate increases may be due to the lack of bond - receiving institutions. The impact of fund institutional behavior on interest rate fluctuations may further expand, and short - term redemption pressure is controllable [2][11][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Institutional Behavior Review - **Correlation between funds and interest rates**: The high correlation between funds and interest rate trends is not new. Since 2024, the behavior of funds and interest rate trends have shown high correlation, and this year, the low - level fluctuation of interest rates has implied the further improvement of funds' pricing power in the bond market, which may be related to bank wealth management outsourcing [2][11][12] - **"Unexplained" interest rate increases**: This phenomenon may be related to the lack of bond - receiving institutions. Insurance institutions have reduced their allocation of national bonds since 2024, and rural commercial banks' intention to buy more as the interest rate adjusts is gradually decreasing [15] 3.2 Yield Curve - **Treasury bonds**: Short - term yields increased, while medium - and long - term yields decreased. The 1Y yield increased by 3bp, the 3Y yield increased by 1bp, the 5Y yield decreased by 2bp, the 7Y yield decreased by 1bp, the 10Y yield decreased by 1bp, the 15Y yield increased by 3bp, and the 30Y yield decreased by 3bp [17] - **China Development Bank bonds**: Yields decreased overall. The 1Y yield increased by 1bp, the 3Y yield decreased by 1bp, the 5Y yield decreased by about 2bp, the 7Y yield decreased by 2bp, the 10Y yield decreased by about 1bp, the 15Y yield decreased by 2bp, and the 30Y yield decreased by 1bp [17] 3.3 Term Spread - **Treasury bonds**: The interest spread increased, and the short - term spread narrowed while the long - term spread was differentiated. The 1Y - DR001 interest spread remained flat overall, and the 1Y - DR007 interest spread increased by 10bp [20] - **China Development Bank bonds**: The interest spread increased, and the short - term spread narrowed while the long - term spread was differentiated. The 1Y - DR001 interest spread increased by 2bp, and the 1Y - DR007 interest spread increased by about 8bp [22] 3.4 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation - **Leverage ratio**: It decreased to 107.14%. From September 1st to September 5th, 2025, the leverage ratio fluctuated and increased within the week. As of September 5th, it was about 107.14%, up 0.30pct from last Friday and 0.07pct from Monday [25] - **Average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase**: From September 1st to September 5th, the average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase was about 7.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.24 trillion yuan compared with last week. The average daily trading volume of overnight pledged repurchase was 7.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.43 trillion yuan month - on - month. The average overnight trading volume accounted for 88.35%, an increase of 2.89pct month - on - month [28][33] - **Funding situation**: Bank - based fund outflows first increased and then decreased. The main fund inflow party was funds, and the outflows of money market funds first decreased and then increased. DR007 and R007 fluctuated and decreased [34] 3.5 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median duration**: The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds decreased. As of September 5th, the median duration (de - leveraged) was 2.77 years, a decrease of 0.04 years from last Friday; the median duration (including leverage) was 2.95 years, a decrease of 0.16 years from last Friday [45] - **Duration of different types of bond funds**: The median duration (including leverage) of interest - rate bond funds decreased to 3.75 years, a decrease of 0.16 years from last Friday; the median duration (including leverage) of credit bond funds decreased to 2.72 years, a decrease of 0.12 years from last Friday [51] 3.6 Category Strategy Comparison - **Sino - US interest rate spread**: It widened overall. The 1Y spread widened by 23bp, the 2Y spread widened by about 12bp, the 3Y spread widened by 13bp, the 5Y spread widened by 8bp, the 7Y spread widened by 11bp, the 10Y spread widened by 11bp, and the 30Y spread widened by 7bp [55] - **Implied tax rate**: The short - term spread narrowed, and the long - term spread was differentiated. As of September 5th, the 1Y spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds narrowed by about 1bp, the 3Y spread narrowed by 2bp, the 5Y spread changed by less than 1bp, the 7Y spread narrowed by 1bp, the 10Y spread widened by 1bp, the 15Y spread narrowed by 5bp, and the 30Y spread widened by 2bp [56] 3.7 Bond Lending Balance Changes - On September 5th, the lending concentration of active 10Y treasury bonds, active 10Y China Development Bank bonds, and active 30Y treasury bonds increased; the lending concentration of the second - active 10Y China Development Bank bonds decreased, and the lending concentration of the second - active 10Y treasury bonds remained unchanged. In terms of institutions, the lending of large - scale banks and other institutions decreased, while that of small - and medium - sized banks and securities firms increased [57]

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