二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 21 日 工业硅：逢高布空思路，关注供应扰动 多晶硅：预计盘面宽幅震荡态势 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面先跌后涨，现货价格持平；多晶硅盘面重心抬升，现货报价稳定 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面先跌后涨，整体重心上移，部分资金炒作工业硅工厂联合挺价，叠加 焦煤期货上涨等因素，周五收于 8690 元/吨。现货市场价格持稳，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅报价 8750 元/吨（环 比不变），内蒙 99 硅报价 8850 元/吨(环比不变)。 多晶硅运行情况：本周多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡，重心抬升，波动放大，周五盘面收于 60245 元/吨。多晶 硅现货市场来看，上游报价坚挺，下游小幅补库。 供需基本面：工业硅本周行业库存去库；多晶硅上游库存高位 工业硅供给端，周度行业库存小幅去库。据咨询商统计，本周甘肃及内蒙地区开工减少，整体周产小幅 环减。具体而言，西南地区进入枯水期，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在 10000-10500 元/吨，枯 水期当地开工持续性回落。月度来看，12 月份 ...

南华期货光伏产业周报 ——技术面为主 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月21日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周多晶硅期货价格整体呈震荡偏弱态势。当前主导多晶硅期货价格走势的核心逻辑，聚焦于以下因素：供 给端检修停产情况、下游需求端排产情况、光伏反内卷政策、仓单注册情况。 从基本面角度看，行业基本面当前呈现"供需双弱"的特征：供给端，多晶硅环节产量已出现下滑趋势，行 业供给扩张节奏显著放缓；需求端，下游硅片、电池片及组件环节产量同步承压，产业链整体呈现收缩态 势。库存端，多晶硅库存仍处于近期高位，未见明显拐点。从终端需求来看，组件招标市场表现持续疲软， 招标数量与成交均价均处于历史相对低位，预计后续基本面弱平衡状态仍在延续。 *远端交易逻辑（年底之后） 1. 观察"反内卷"政策推进，以及2026年对光伏新增装机量的落地； 2. 下游及海外光伏需求情况。 . 从交易情绪来看，近期市场对平台公司已反应，后续的实际落地动作仍需关注。后续交易 ...

南华期货光伏产业周报 ——技术面为主 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月14日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周多晶硅期货价格整体呈震荡偏弱态势。当前主导多晶硅期货价格走势的核心逻辑，聚焦于以下因素：供 给端检修停产情况、下游需求端排产情况、光伏反内卷政策、仓单注册情况。 从基本面角度看，行业基本面当前呈现"供需双弱"的特征：供给端，多晶硅环节产量已出现下滑趋势，行 业供给扩张节奏显著放缓；需求端，下游硅片、电池片及组件环节产量同步承压，产业链整体呈现收缩态 势。库存端，多晶硅库存仍处于近期高位，未见明显拐点。从终端需求来看，组件招标市场表现持续疲软， 招标数量与成交均价均处于历史相对低位，预计后续基本面弱平衡状态仍在延续。 从交易情绪来看，近期市场对平台公司已反应，后续的实际落地动作仍需关注。后续交易逻辑建议以价格走 势、量能变化为支撑的技术面逻辑为主。 光伏组件周度中标情况 元/瓦 光伏组件周度中标数据-中标均价 光伏组件项周度中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of anti-involution policies in the photovoltaic industry is expected to promote healthy and orderly development, leading to a gradual recovery in prices across various segments and an improvement in industry profitability [2] Industry Summary - The anti-involution policies are driving a gradual rebound in prices within the photovoltaic sector, which is anticipated to enhance the overall profitability of the industry [2] - As these policies deepen, the prices of silicon wafers are also expected to rise, contributing to the recovery of profitability in related businesses [2] Company Summary - The company has reported a return to profitability in the third quarter, attributed to the ongoing effects of anti-involution policies and internal cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures [2] - The company's cutting and processing services for silicon wafers are seeing a recovery in profitability, which is expected to further enhance the main business's profitability [2] - The company is committed to actively monitoring and responding to relevant anti-involution policies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant advancements in the perovskite solar cell technology, particularly a new prototype achieving a conversion efficiency of 27.2%, which marks a critical step towards commercialization in the solar energy sector [3][5][6]. Technological Breakthroughs - Researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences have developed a perovskite solar cell prototype with a light conversion efficiency of 27.2% and improved operational stability [3][5]. - The study published in the journal "Science" addresses issues of uneven chlorine distribution in the perovskite layer, which previously affected performance and stability [5][6]. - The new method introduced by researchers enhances the quality of perovskite films, extending carrier lifetimes to 20 microseconds and significantly reducing interface defect density [6]. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry has seen a stabilization and recovery in prices since the third quarter, driven by "anti-involution" policies [3][9]. - Major photovoltaic companies reported improved profitability in Q3, attributed to stabilized supply chain prices and reduced inventory impairment losses [9]. - The "anti-involution" policies focus on controlling prices and production volumes, which have begun to yield positive results in the industry [9][10]. Industry Developments - The perovskite sector is experiencing a robust trend of technological breakthroughs, industrial implementation, and supply chain localization [7]. - A significant milestone was achieved with the first large-sized commercial perovskite module produced by a Zhejiang company, marking a transition from laboratory to large-scale commercial application [6][7]. - The National Energy Administration's new guidelines aim to promote the integration of coal and renewable energy, potentially creating new growth opportunities for the photovoltaic sector [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Daqo Energy [5] Core Views - Daqo Energy has turned profitable in Q3 2025, driven by a significant increase in both sales volume and prices of polysilicon, with a revenue of 1.773 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 214.9% [4][5] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 73.48 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses in previous periods [4] - The recovery in the polysilicon market, influenced by the "anti-involution" policy, has led to a notable price increase, with the average sales price reaching 41.49 yuan/kg, up 36.8% quarter-on-quarter [4] - Daqo Energy achieved a sales volume of 42,406 tons, a staggering 134% increase from the previous quarter, with a production and sales rate of 138% [4] - The company has effectively controlled costs, reducing its unit cash cost to 34.63 yuan/kg, down 11.1% quarter-on-quarter, which has supported its profitability recovery [4] - Daqo Energy maintains a low debt ratio of 8.20%, providing a solid financial cushion to navigate industry cycles and seize future market opportunities [4] Financial Summary - The total market capitalization is approximately 64.21 billion yuan, with a 52-week price range of 34.39 yuan to 17.53 yuan [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 5 billion, 7.5 billion, and 9.9 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be -140 million, 980 million, and 1.92 billion yuan [5][6] - The company anticipates an increase in polysilicon production to between 39,500 and 42,500 tons in Q4 2025, which is expected to enhance economies of scale and cost optimization [4]

Group 1: Financial Performance and Challenges - The company is currently facing insufficient profitability in its main business, resulting in continuous losses and a reduction in production scale [2] - The average conversion efficiency of the company's mass-produced HJT batteries has reached over 26%, with the highest power of self-developed high-efficiency HJT 0BB modules reaching 781.97W [3] - The company has not received any notifications regarding shareholder reduction plans and will comply with information disclosure obligations [3] Group 2: Acquisition and Restructuring - The termination of the acquisition was due to a failure to reach an agreement on core terms, including the transaction price [4] - The voting results for the termination of the acquisition were: 4 votes in favor, 0 against, and 3 abstentions [3] - The company commits to not planning any major asset restructuring within one month following the termination of this transaction [5] Group 3: Future Strategies and Market Outlook - The company will continue to focus on HJT battery technology and seek development opportunities to enhance operational performance [4] - The implementation of national policies aimed at promoting healthy development in the photovoltaic industry is expected to lead to a rise in product prices and profitability [4] - The company will actively monitor related opportunities for future acquisitions, supported by external policy environments [5]

Group 1: Solar Industry - The current trading range for polysilicon is between 40,000 to 49,000 CNY/ton, with a significant increase in the price of N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers, averaging 1.05 CNY/piece, up 22.09% week-on-week [3] - Short-term policy support is strong, but the sustainability of this support is crucial for alleviating the operational pressures faced by many companies in the solar industry, which are currently experiencing cash flow issues [3] - The market is closely watching the "storage" plan for silicon materials, as the expected price of silicon will influence the valuation of the stored capacity and the willingness of financial participants [3] Group 2: Wind Energy - Wind energy is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, with significant earnings elasticity anticipated in the wind turbine assembly segment due to larger turbine sizes and reduced component costs [4] - The 136 document reshapes the logic of new energy installations, with expectations for a recovery in wind power development and power station sales due to favorable output curves [4] Group 3: Solid-State Batteries - The outlook for solid-state batteries remains positive despite recent weak performance due to prior high gains; focus should be on all-solid-state battery equipment and lithium sulfide segments [5] - Attention is also directed towards the progress of semi-solid batteries and electrolyte modifications, which can leverage solid-state battery processes for improved performance and faster implementation [5] Group 4: Energy Storage - The recent policy in Gansu regarding electrochemical large-scale storage capacity is expected to counterbalance the gradual elimination of capacity leasing fees, positively impacting independent storage IRR [5] - The current high demand for energy storage tenders in China is driven by consumption pressure and improved business models, with strong overseas storage market conditions also noted [5]

Report Title - Industrial Silicon: Supply and Demand De-stocking, Monitor the Restart Rhythm of Upstream Factories; Polysilicon: Policy-Driven Market, Hold Positions Cautiously [1][2] Report Date - July 20, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the restart rhythm of upstream factories. The market sentiment remains high, and the supply-demand de-stocking logic supports the price. The disk provides a suitable hedging space for upstream factories. The restart progress of upstream factories is crucial [6]. - For polysilicon, the expectation of policy implementation is strong. It is safer to go long at appropriate times. The market is mainly driven by policy expectations, and the relationship with supply and demand is relatively weak [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The futures disk fluctuated strongly, and the spot price also increased. The futures closed at 8,695 yuan/ton on Friday. The SMM statistics show that the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8,700 yuan/ton (up 300 yuan week-on-week), and the price of Inner Mongolia 99 silicon was 9,050 yuan/ton (up 500 yuan week-on-week) [2]. - Polysilicon: The futures disk rose significantly, and the spot quotation increased. The futures closed at 43,850 yuan/ton on Friday. Only a small number of downstream buyers accepted high-price transactions, and further observation is needed [2]. 2. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory decreased again. The production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased, while the production in Xinjiang remained stable. The southwest region carried out hedging operations after the price increase, and some enterprises have the expectation of restarting production. The restart rhythm of northwest silicon factories is crucial. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 million tons this week, and the social inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - Demand side: Short-term demand increased. The production of polysilicon may continue to increase, and the demand for industrial silicon has improved. The production of organosilicon increased this week, and the demand for industrial silicon was maintained. There is also an expectation of restarting production in monomer factories. However, the terminal consumption of organosilicon has not improved significantly. June - July is the off-season for aluminum alloy consumption, and the actual trading volume has not increased significantly. Exporters mainly focus on rigid demand and do not hoard goods [3]. Polysilicon - Supply side: The short-term weekly production increased marginally. Some factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Qinghai are restarting production, which will bring subsequent supply increments. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers decreased this week, and the upstream price increase led to speculative replenishment demand from downstream [4]. - Demand side: The production of silicon wafers continued to decrease due to the decline in terminal demand and the increase in costs. The price increase of silicon materials has been transmitted to silicon wafers and battery cells, but there is no information on the price increase and transaction of components, indicating that the transmission of upstream price increases is not smooth [4][5]. 3. Market Outlook - Industrial silicon: The disk has resistance to decline before the end of this round of market sentiment. It is recommended to pay attention to the restart progress of upstream factories. It is recommended to go short at high levels, and the expected disk range next week is 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. - Polysilicon: The policy implementation expectation is strong. It is safer to go long at appropriate times. The expected disk range next week is 43,000 - 47,000 yuan/ton [7]. 4. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Recommend going short at high levels for industrial silicon; for polysilicon, it is recommended to go long at appropriate times [6][7]. - Inter - period: Recommend stopping profit for the PS2509/PS2511 inter - period reverse spread strategy [8]. - Hedging: Recommend selling hedging strategies for upstream industrial silicon factories and polysilicon factories [8].