Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of polysilicon is expected to increase due to the potential复产 of some bases of three leading domestic enterprises and the release of new production capacity in the second half of the year. If the resumption of production speeds up or new capacity is released ahead of schedule next week, the market supply of polysilicon will increase [2]. - The short - term demand for polysilicon is weak. In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85%. Although the global photovoltaic installation in 2025 is expected to be about 580GW and the domestic demand is about 130000 tons, the short - term weak demand restricts the price increase of polysilicon [2]. - The downstream photovoltaic enterprise's start - up rate is difficult to improve. With the increase in supply and the weakening of demand, the polysilicon market is expected to continue to adjust next week. The price is supported by cost and policy, but the upside space is limited by downstream acceptance, and it is likely to show a volatile trend [2]. - The demand for industrial silicon is steadily declining, but the supply is also decreasing, and the overall situation remains volatile [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 52280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 460 yuan compared with the previous period; the main contract position is 135517 lots, a decrease of 3206 lots [2]. - The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2290 yuan, an increase of 155 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 43675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 47000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the basis of polysilicon is - 5740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2310 yuan [2]. - The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 36 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 34.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52919.65 tons, a decrease of 12197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons [2]. - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305200 tons, an increase of 5500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1113 tons, an increase of 320 tons [2]. - The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.3 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 67386000 kilowatts, a decrease of 3183000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W [2]. - The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 889758600 units, a decrease of 144241200 units; the monthly import volume is 110959000 units, a decrease of 10025900 units; the monthly average import price is 0.31 US dollars/unit, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars [2]. - The comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 27.86, unchanged [2]. Industry News - The relevant unit has decided to abolish the "Notice on Printing and Distributing the Work Guidelines for the Consultation Mechanism for the Identification of Compliant Production Capacity of Industrial Silicon in the Autonomous Region" after the expiration of the publicity period without receiving any objections [2]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and take promoting a reasonable rise in prices as an important consideration for monetary policy [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side of polysilicon has all manufacturers operating at reduced loads, but market expectations for new capacity launches are increasing. At current price levels, most enterprises are in a stage of losing cash costs, with production enthusiasm dampened and some even suspending delivery product lines. The demand side is relatively weak, with downstream photovoltaic module production schedules adjusted down, silicon wafer enterprise self - regulatory quotas reduced, and N - type silicon wafer prices and production declining. After the "rush to install" boom in the terminal market, there is strong wait - and - see sentiment and low procurement enthusiasm. Overseas photovoltaic market demand is also uncertain due to unstable macro - economic environment and international trade frictions, further suppressing polysilicon demand growth. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, suppressing market prices. For long - term operations, shorting is still the main strategy [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 33,370 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread of polysilicon is 1,305 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the main polysilicon position is 30,435 lots, down 13,008 lots; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 25,945 yuan/ton, down 705 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 35,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of polysilicon (cauliflower material) is 29 yuan/kg, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is 1,490 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan; the average price of polysilicon (dense material) is 30.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of polysilicon (re - feeding material) is 31.5 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 7,425 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons per month, down 12,197.89 tons; the import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons per month, up 71.51 tons; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 587,000 tons, down 2,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 96,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 954 tons, down 1,952 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 4.88 US dollars/kg, down 0.13 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2,190 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 71.928 million kilowatts, down 6.516 million kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 83,789,320 pieces, down 11,583,800 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 20,120,440 pieces, up 10,274,320 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.29 US dollars/piece, up 0.02 US dollars; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 21.67, down 0.62 [2] Industry News - As of June 17, the mainstream market price of P - type polysilicon cauliflower material is 31 yuan/kg, the price is stable; the mainstream market price of N - type dense material is 34 yuan/kg, the price is stable; the mainstream market price of N - type re - feeding material is 37.5 yuan/kg, the price is stable; the mainstream market price of N - type granular silicon is 34 yuan/kg, the price is stable; the mainstream market price of N - type polysilicon is 34.5 yuan/kg. China's polysilicon imports in May were 793 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 80.5%. The cumulative imports from January to May were 10,097 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.7% [2]

| | | 化速度减缓，部分厂家面临较大的出货难题 。技术面上冲高回路，但成交量并未下滑，高位换手，情绪面 多晶硅产业日报 2025-05-15 并没有打破，短期未能冲破20日均线压力位，成交量缩量盘整，预计还在等待消息进行二次突破。操作上 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 37920 | -500 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 37985 | -6707 | | | 06-07月合约价差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 860 | -380 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 29510 | -420 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 40500 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30.5 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 2080 | -150 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 33.5 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests to temporarily observe the polysilicon market [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable. Supply has significantly declined as over half of the enterprises in the industry are conducting device maintenance, especially in Xinjiang and Mongolia. Demand is weak, with downstream enterprises, particularly crystal - pulling companies, showing a strong wait - and - see attitude and low purchasing willingness. The industry's inventory pressure remains high, mainly concentrated in polysilicon manufacturers, and the inventory digestion speed has slowed down. Technically, trading volume continues to expand, a phased bottom has emerged, and the short - term price repair momentum has increased [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 38,450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 620 yuan/ton; the main position volume is 67,504 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 248 lots. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts is 2,305 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 800 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 30,130 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 505 yuan/ton [3] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 40,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30.5 yuan/kg, the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 33.5 yuan/kg, and the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 35 yuan/kg, all unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.34 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 US dollars/kg. The basis of polysilicon is 2,050 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 620 yuan/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,320 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 115 yuan/ton; the spot price is 9,100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 46,400 tons; the total social inventory is 596,000 tons, with a day - on - day decrease of 7,000 tons [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 97,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons. The monthly import volume of polysilicon is 2,906 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 222 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.28 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 7.8444 million kilowatts, with a month - on - month increase of 1.1443 million kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 95,373,120 pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 24,038,530 pieces; the monthly import volume is 9,846,120 pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,122,260 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.27 US dollars/piece, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 US dollars/piece. The comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.91, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 [3] Industry News - As of May 9, the mainstream market price of P - type cauliflower - type polysilicon is 32 yuan/kg, the mainstream market price of N - type dense - type polysilicon is 35.5 yuan/kg, the mainstream market price of N - type re - feeding polysilicon is 39 yuan/kg, and the mainstream market price of N - type granular silicon is 37 yuan/kg, all of which are temporarily stable. The National Development and Reform Commission will launch high - quality projects with a total investment scale of about 3 trillion yuan this year [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term rebound of polysilicon is nearing its end. It is recommended to place short positions on polysilicon 2506 around 40,500 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at 40,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the trading volume of polysilicon and the operation rhythm and risk control [2]. - On the supply side, more than half of the enterprises in the industry are carrying out equipment maintenance, especially in Xinjiang and Mongolia regions, leading to a significant decline in supply. On the demand side, the downstream demand for polysilicon is weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment among crystal - pulling enterprises. Downstream enterprises expect the future silicon material price to fall and plan to replenish inventory after the price stabilizes. The polysilicon industry still has high inventory pressure, mainly concentrated in manufacturers, and some manufacturers face difficulties in shipping due to weak downstream procurement [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 39,375 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton; the main position volume is 59,000 lots, down 1,991 lots. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts is 1,500 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 30,500 yuan/ton, up 295 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon is 42,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 33.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding material is 34 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.58 US dollars/kg, down 0.35 US dollars/kg [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,875 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,650 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, up 46,400 tons; the total social inventory is 612,000 tons, unchanged [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of polysilicon is 97,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,906 tons, down 222 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.27 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price is 2,190 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The monthly output of solar cells is 78.444 million kilowatts, up 11.443 million kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 95,373,120 pieces, up 24,038,530 pieces; the monthly import volume is 11,968,380 pieces, up 4,161,000 pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.26 US dollars/piece, down 0.01 US dollars/piece [2]. b. Industry News - As of April 23, the mainstream market prices of P - type cauliflower - type polysilicon, N - type dense - type polysilicon, re - feeding material, and N - type granular silicon are stable. The mainstream prices are 33 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, 42 yuan/kg, and 39 yuan/kg respectively [2]. - Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to study measures for stabilizing employment, the economy, and promoting high - quality development. Although the LPR has not been lowered, below market expectations, no more stimulus policies will be introduced if the data does not deteriorate further [2].