光伏，苦"内卷"久矣！ 过去四年（2021-2024年），在碳中和东风下，从硅料到组件的光伏主产业链各环节，都陷入了一场扩产竞赛。 只可惜，需求没能跟上扩产的步伐，最终致使产品价格大幅下滑。 据中国光伏行业协会最新统计数据，2025年1月至10月，多晶硅产量约111.3万吨（同比下降29.6%）、硅片产量约567GW（同比下降6.7%），均迎来多年来 首次同比下滑。 硅料价格也从2022年高峰时期的超30万元/吨，一路下跌至2025年中期的每吨3.47万元，跌幅接近90%；硅片、电池片、组件等其它环节价格也纷纷跟跌。 12月22日，白银现货价格持续大幅上涨，再创历史新高。同花顺iFind数据显示，伦敦银现价盘中最高触及69.450美元/盎司，年内涨幅超130%；COMEX白 银同步刷新历史新高，年内涨幅突破120%。 在这样的背景下，行业产能供给矛盾依旧严峻，光伏组件终端需求转弱，开工率继续下降。事实上，大多数光伏企业在2024年就由盈转亏，2025年依旧身陷 亏损。另一方面，当下银价飙升又给光伏行业带来了尤为显著的成本压力。 仅前三季度，通威股份、隆基绿能等如下图八家巨头就共亏损了260.68亿元。 那么， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Zhongyou Securities maintains an "overweight" rating for Junda Co., Ltd. (02865), while adjusting revenue forecasts due to intense industry competition [1] - The revenue forecasts for Junda Co., Ltd. for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 10.0 billion, 12.03 billion, and 14.67 billion yuan respectively [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -5 million yuan for the forecast period [1] Group 2 - The company is experiencing a rapid increase in its overseas sales proportion, which is expected to rise from 23.85% in 2024 to 51.87% [1] - The gross margin for overseas sales is reported to be 4.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.8 percentage points, while the domestic gross margin is at -0.8% [1] - Junda Co., Ltd. is continuously promoting N-type technology to reduce costs and improve efficiency, focusing on the next generation of battery technology [1] Group 3 - The company is implementing various technologies such as half-cell edge passivation, wave backfield, and ultra-fine grid to achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement [1] - The pilot test xBC battery's conversion efficiency is expected to improve by 1-1.5 percentage points compared to mainstream N-type battery efficiency [1]

Core Viewpoint - 中邮证券 maintains an "overweight" rating for JunDa Co., predicting a decline in revenue forecasts due to intense industry competition, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 at 10.0 billion, 12.03 billion, and 14.67 billion yuan respectively, and net profits of -510 million, 620 million, and 1.05 billion yuan respectively [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.7%, with a net profit of -420 million yuan, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [1] - The company's gross margin and net margin were 1.5% and -7.4% respectively, with year-on-year changes of +1.2% and -2.3% [1] - The company's non-recurring net profit was -720 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [1] Group 2: International Expansion - The company's overseas sales proportion is expected to increase significantly from 23.85% in 2024 to 51.87% [1] - The gross margin for overseas sales is 4.5%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8 percentage points, while the domestic gross margin is -0.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7 percentage points [1] - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with local component customers in Turkey to jointly build a high-efficiency battery project, addressing structural capacity gaps in the region [1] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The company is continuously promoting N-type technology to reduce costs and improve efficiency, utilizing techniques such as half-cell edge passivation and ultra-fine grid [2] - The lab efficiency of the perovskite tandem battery developed in collaboration with external institutions has reached 32.08% [2] - The company's pilot xBC battery conversion efficiency is expected to improve by 1-1.5 percentage points compared to mainstream N-type battery efficiency, maintaining alignment with industry leaders [2]

Core Driving Areas: High Growth and Strong Demand Support - The technology and digital economy sector is experiencing deep integration of AI and hard technology, with a surge in demand for AI applications in various industries such as healthcare, finance, and manufacturing [2][3] - The biotechnology and innovative medical sector is transitioning from R&D-driven to commercialized applications, with many biotech companies expected to enter the III phase of clinical trials or commercialization by 2025 [3][4] - The new energy and green economy sector is witnessing a shift from scale expansion to technological upgrades, driven by China's carbon neutrality goals and global energy transition [3][4] Policy Support Directions: Key Areas of National Strategy and Regional Development - The Chinese government's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the transformation of traditional manufacturing towards intelligent and high-end production, with a focus on "specialized, refined, characteristic, and novel" enterprises [5] - The "Digital China" strategy is promoting the integration of the digital economy with the real economy, accelerating domestic substitution in hard technology sectors such as semiconductors and robotics [3][5] Potential Risks: Variables to Watch - The global liquidity environment may face pressure if the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts do not meet expectations, potentially leading to foreign capital outflows from the Hong Kong market [5] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in US-China technology competition and the Taiwan Strait situation, could impact the financing environment for technology and high-end manufacturing companies [5] - Regulatory policies in various industries, such as antitrust measures in the internet sector and drug pricing negotiations, may impose constraints on profitability for certain companies [5] Conclusion: The Golden Tracks for Hong Kong IPOs in 2025 - The primary opportunities for Hong Kong IPOs in 2025 will be concentrated in three major directions: technology (AI and hard technology), biotechnology (innovative drugs and devices), and new energy (energy storage and electric vehicle supply chains) [4] - High-end manufacturing and consumer recovery also present structural opportunities, with companies needing to possess a combination of technological barriers, commercialization capabilities, and alignment with policy directions to achieve high valuations and investor recognition [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese photovoltaic industry has achieved high-quality development, ranking as the world's top 5A country in this sector, with significant advancements in technology and market presence [1][3]. Industry Overview - The Chinese photovoltaic industry has built the most competitive supply chain globally, maintaining the highest production and installation capacity for over a decade [3]. - In the first half of 2025, China added 212.21 GW of new photovoltaic installations, a 107% year-on-year increase, contributing over 45% to the global total expected to reach 570-630 GW [3]. - As of May 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China surpassed 1 billion kW, equivalent to 48 Three Gorges power stations [3]. Market Dynamics - The industry faces structural contradictions, with production capacity exceeding global demand significantly, leading to price volatility and squeezed profit margins [4]. - Component prices have dropped below 0.6 yuan per watt due to supply exceeding demand, resulting in a challenging profit environment across the industry [4]. Technological Innovations - N-type batteries have become mainstream, with TOPCon technology accounting for over 75% of production capacity, while advanced technologies like HJT and BC are accelerating commercialization [4]. - Longi Green Energy's HIBC technology has achieved a laboratory conversion efficiency of 27.81%, with HPBC 2.0 components reaching 24.8% efficiency and HIBC components exceeding 25.9% efficiency [4][5]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government is implementing measures to regulate the photovoltaic industry, including curbing low-price competition and ensuring product quality [5][6]. - Recent international policy changes from the U.S. and EU pose new challenges for Chinese photovoltaic companies, including anti-dumping investigations and local manufacturing requirements [6][7]. Global Market Expansion - Chinese photovoltaic companies are diversifying their market presence to counter global trade barriers, actively participating in large projects in the Middle East and Southeast Asia [7]. - Investments in Latin America and Africa are increasing, with significant projects underway in Brazil, Mexico, and Ethiopia [7]. Future Challenges - The industry must align with international standards, including stricter ESG requirements and carbon footprint labeling, to enhance export competitiveness [8]. - Future policies will likely create a multi-dimensional regulatory framework encompassing market rules, environmental protection, and safety production [8].

Core Insights - Chengdu High-tech Comprehensive Bonded Zone (including Shuangliu Park) ranked first among 154 evaluated bonded zones nationwide in the 2024 performance assessment by the General Administration of Customs [1][2] Group 1: Performance Rankings - Chengdu High-tech Comprehensive Bonded Zone ranked 1st, followed by Shanghai Waigaoqiao Bonded Zone (2nd) and Shenzhen Qianhai Comprehensive Bonded Zone (3rd) [2] - The top 10 ranked bonded zones are all classified as Category A [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Chengdu High-tech Comprehensive Bonded Zone Shuangliu Park achieved an industrial output value of 92.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [8] - The total foreign trade import and export volume reached 66.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.6% [8] - Fixed asset investment amounted to 12.4 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 343% [8] - Cross-border e-commerce volume reached 2.0711 million transactions, valued at 1.507 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 101.5% [8] Group 3: Strategic Importance - Chengdu High-tech Comprehensive Bonded Zone continues to play a crucial role as the "ballast stone" and "main engine" of foreign trade in Sichuan province, accounting for 52.0% of the province's total foreign trade import and export volume in the first seven months of the year [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and increased losses in the first half of 2025, while making strides in overseas market expansion and battery technology improvements [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -264 million yuan, with losses widening compared to the previous year [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.788 billion yuan, down 32.76% year-on-year, with a net profit of -158 million yuan, indicating a further increase in losses compared to the previous quarter [1] - Domestic sales revenue fell by 67.91% to 1.763 billion yuan, with a gross margin decrease of 1.70 percentage points to -0.78% [1] Group 2: Overseas Market Expansion - The company significantly increased its overseas sales, with revenue growing by 116.15% year-on-year to 1.900 billion yuan, accounting for 51.87% of total revenue, up from 23.85% in 2024 [1] - The gross margin for overseas sales improved by 2.83 percentage points to 4.50%, demonstrating better profitability despite ongoing price pressures in the industry [1] Group 3: Battery Technology Development - The company is actively enhancing N-type battery technology, achieving an average production conversion efficiency increase of over 0.2% in H1 2025, and reducing non-silicon costs by approximately 20% [2] - The company is collaborating with external institutions to develop perovskite tandem batteries, achieving a laboratory efficiency of 32.08%, which is leading in the industry [2] Group 4: International Capacity Diversification - The company is pursuing a diversified approach to overseas capacity through technology cooperation and investment, signing a strategic cooperation agreement with a local Turkish client to build a high-efficiency battery project [3] - However, the progress of the planned 5GW high-efficiency battery production base in Oman has been affected by changes in international trade conditions and tariff policies, leading to a cautious approach in advancing this project [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and increased losses in the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 3.663 billion yuan, down 42.53% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -264 million yuan, indicating an expanded loss [1]. - Despite domestic market challenges, the company achieved a remarkable 116.15% year-on-year growth in overseas sales, reaching 1.9 billion yuan, which now constitutes 51.87% of total revenue [2]. - The company is actively enhancing its N-type battery technology, achieving over 0.2% improvement in average production conversion efficiency and a 20% reduction in non-silicon costs [3]. - The company is diversifying its overseas production capacity, having signed a strategic cooperation agreement for a high-efficiency battery project in Turkey, although the progress of the Oman 5GW project has been affected by international trade conditions [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.663 billion yuan, a decrease of 42.53% year-on-year, and a net profit of -264 million yuan, worsening from the previous year [1]. - The Q2 2025 revenue was 1.788 billion yuan, down 32.76% year-on-year, with a net profit of -158 million yuan, indicating a sequential increase in losses [1]. Overseas Market Expansion - The overseas sales revenue grew by 116.15% to 1.9 billion yuan in H1 2025, increasing its share of total revenue from 23.85% in 2024 to 51.87% [2]. - The gross margin for overseas sales improved by 2.83 percentage points to 4.50%, while domestic sales faced a 67.91% decline to 1.763 billion yuan, with a gross margin of -0.78% [2]. Technology Development - The company is focused on improving N-type battery efficiency and reducing costs, with a 0.2% increase in average production conversion efficiency and a 20% decrease in non-silicon costs [3]. - The TBC battery's conversion efficiency is projected to exceed mainstream N-type battery efficiency by 1-1.5 percentage points, with laboratory efficiency for perovskite tandem batteries reaching 32.08% [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing a diversified approach to overseas production capacity, including a strategic partnership in Turkey to address regional battery capacity gaps [4]. - The construction of the Oman 5GW project is being approached cautiously due to fluctuations in international trade and tariff policies [4].

Core Viewpoint - Junda Co., Ltd. reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to a drop in domestic sales, while international sales showed substantial growth, indicating a shift in market strategy towards overseas expansion [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 3.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.53% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -264 million yuan, with losses widening compared to the previous year [2]. - Government subsidies accounted for 214 million yuan of the reported profit, highlighting reliance on external support [2]. Market Dynamics - Despite a decline in domestic revenue, international sales surged, with the overseas revenue share increasing from 23.85% in 2024 to 51.87% in 2025, and revenue from international markets growing by 116.15% [1][4]. - The company’s main product, photovoltaic cells, saw a significant drop in sales price and volume, leading to a 42.48% decrease in revenue from this segment [1][2]. Industry Trends - The global photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand mismatch, with a shift towards a de-capacity cycle starting in the second half of 2023 [3]. - N-type TOPCon cells are projected to dominate the market, with an expected market share of approximately 71.1% in 2024 [3]. - The industry is anticipated to focus on inventory reduction and capacity cuts through 2025, while maintaining market share remains a priority [3]. Strategic Initiatives - Junda Co., Ltd. successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising 1.29 billion HKD for overseas market expansion and production capacity development [4]. - The company is actively building a global sales network and enhancing customer service capabilities across various regions, including Asia, Europe, North America, and Latin America [4]. - The company is exploring diverse strategies for overseas market development, including technology cooperation and investment partnerships [4].

Core Viewpoint - JunDa Co., Ltd. reported a significant decline in revenue and an increase in net loss for the first half of 2025, despite a notable growth in overseas sales of photovoltaic products [1][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 3.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.53% [1][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 264 million yuan, compared to a loss of 166 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating an expanded loss [1][4]. - The majority of revenue came from the sale of photovoltaic cells, which saw a decline of 42.48% due to falling sales prices and volumes [4]. - Government subsidies accounted for 214 million yuan of the reported non-recurring gains, while the adjusted net profit loss was 465 million yuan [4]. Market Dynamics - JunDa Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the photovoltaic cell industry, with a significant increase in overseas sales, which rose from 878 million yuan to 1.9 billion yuan, representing a growth of 116.15% [1][6]. - The company’s overseas sales now account for 51.87% of total revenue, up from 23.85% in 2024 [1][6]. - The gross margin for overseas business reached 4.50%, an increase of 2.83 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to an overall gross margin of 1.75% for photovoltaic cells [6]. Industry Trends - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a phase of supply-demand mismatch, leading to a capacity reduction cycle starting in the second half of 2023 [5]. - The market share of TOPCon (Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact) cells is expected to stabilize, while the market share of BC (Back Contact) cells is anticipated to grow rapidly [6]. - The N-type TOPCon cell market share is projected to be approximately 71.1% in 2024 [5]. Strategic Initiatives - JunDa Co., Ltd. successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising 1.29 billion HKD for overseas market expansion and capacity building [2][6]. - The company is actively exploring diverse strategies for overseas market development, including technology cooperation and capacity construction [7]. - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed with a local component customer in Turkey, indicating a focus on local partnerships [7].