Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is limited in its upward movement due to the long - term logic of hydrometallurgy replacing pyrometallurgy and weak refined nickel demand. However, in the short - term, with marginal improvement in the macro - environment and the resonance of news, there may be a certain degree of price repair. Attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of Indonesian news [1]. - The stainless steel market has a weak fundamental situation, but the downside is also limited. The market is affected by macro - marginal factors and policy uncertainties in Indonesia [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamentals - **Nickel**: The inventory accumulation of refined nickel has slowed down. The demand for corrosion - resistant alloys is under pressure, and the proportion of using ferronickel to replace nickel plates in the nickel alloy segment has increased. The long - term supply increase expectation of low - cost hydrometallurgy remains. Macro - level, dovish remarks from the Fed have boosted expectations, and there are many uncertainties in Indonesia, which may support the nickel price in the short - term [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The fundamentals are weak, with high upstream inventory, low terminal manufacturing investment growth, and weak post - production cycle consumption. The market is in a seasonally weak period, and the supply - demand relationship has shifted from strong supply and weak demand to weak supply and demand, showing a slight surplus. The cost of ferronickel has limited downward space, and short - selling at low levels is not cost - effective. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [2]. Inventory Tracking - **Refined nickel**: China's social inventory decreased by 1099 tons to 53144 tons, with warehouse receipt inventory decreasing by 1242 tons to 33785 tons, and spot inventory increasing by 143 tons to 15589 tons. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 3770 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 1860 tons to 253950 tons [3][4]. - **New energy**: On November 14, the inventory days of upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate changed by 0, +1, 0 month - on - month to 4, 9, 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory changed by - 0.6 month - on - month to 12.3 days; on November 13, the ternary material inventory changed by - 0.2 month - on - month to 6.9 days [4]. - **Ferronickel - stainless steel**: On October 31, the SMM ferronickel inventory was 30225 tons, with a year - on - month/ month - on - month increase of +3%/+2%. In October, the SMM stainless steel factory inventory was 1.574 million tons, with a year - on - month/ month - on - month increase of +9%/3%. On November 20, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the Steel Union was 1071733 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. Among them, the total inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 621623 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.51%, and the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 658798 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.17% [4]. Market News - In September, due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over a more than 148 - hectare nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons [5]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imported from Russia [6]. - In September, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees. The sanctions will be lifted once the companies submit claim plan documents and place claim guarantees for 2025 [6]. - In September, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order regarding the preparation, submission, and approval procedures of the mining RKAB for the next year. The approval plan is expected to be completed by November 15 this year, and there are transition clauses [6]. - Trump claimed to impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" starting from November 1 [7]. - The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [7]. - Due to strengthened safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks, some nickel hydrometallurgy projects will reduce production loads to clean up tailings slag ponds in December, affecting the output by about 6000 nickel metal tons [7]. - On November 21, the New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, prompting investors to increase the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel Market**: The Shanghai nickel market is experiencing a situation where short - term prices are supported while inventories are at a high level and accumulating. The bearish logic lies in high - level inventory accumulation at the smelting end and expected supply pressure, while the bullish support comes from the uncertainty of Indonesia's nickel ore supply governance policies and limited downward space for short - term pyrometallurgical costs. Long - term volatility may increase [2]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: The stainless steel market lacks effective upward drivers and has limited downward imagination space. It is recommended to adopt a conservative low - level range trading strategy in the short term and a long - term bottom - seeking and re - long strategy. The market is in a long - and short - term game between expectations and reality [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - **Nickel**: The smelting end's inventory accumulation suppresses prices, but the uncertainty of Indonesia's nickel ore supply governance policies provides support. The substitution of nickel iron for nickel plates in the nickel alloy sector and the expected increase in pure nickel production limit the upward elasticity of nickel prices [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The early over - export effect has been digested, and overseas trade consultations have eased tariff concerns. However, the traditional peak season has fallen short of expectations, and post - real - estate cycle consumption remains weak. Although the overall inventory has declined from the high level, the absolute inventory of the mid - and upstream is still at a relatively high historical level, and downstream procurement is cautious. The supply - side elasticity is relatively large, which may limit the upward space of stainless steel prices. The cost has slightly decreased, and the overall inventory is still high, but the marginal inventory accumulation rate has converged [3]. 3.2 Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: China's social inventory increased by 1050 tons to 48746 tons. Among them, warehouse receipt inventory increased by 4578 tons to 31388 tons, spot inventory decreased by 3528 tons to 13288 tons, and bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 4070 tons. LME inventory increased by 1248 tons to 252102 tons [5]. - **New Energy**: On October 31, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by - 1, - 2, and +1 months - on - month to 4, 7, and 7 days respectively; on October 24, the precursor inventory changed by - 1 month - on - month to 12.9 days; on October 30, the ternary material inventory changed by - 0.3 month - on - month to 6.9 days [5]. - **Nickel Iron - Stainless Steel**: On October 31, SMM nickel iron inventory was 29564 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase and a 27% year - on - year increase. In September, SMN stainless steel mill inventory was 1.532 million tons, with a 4% year - on - month increase and a 1% month - on - month decrease. On October 30, 2025, SMM stainless steel social inventory slightly increased to 947000 tons; the total social inventory of Steel Union stainless steel was 1831096 tons, with a 0.36% week - on - week increase, and the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 651940 tons, with a 0.4% week - on - week increase [5]. 3.3 Market News - Indonesia's forestry working group took over a 0.3% area of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area due to violations of forestry license regulations, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [7]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 198 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees. The sanctions will be lifted once the companies submit claim plan documents and place claim guarantees for 2025 [7]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order, requiring the approval of the next year's mine RKAB to be completed by November 15 this year. If the approval result is not notified through the online system, it will be automatically approved on November 15. According to the transition clause, the approved 2026 RKAB before the order takes effect can still be used as the basis for exploration or production operations until March 31, 2026 [7]. - US President Trump announced on social media that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" starting from November 1 [8]. 3.4 Weekly Key Data Tracking The report provides weekly tracking data for nickel and stainless steel futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, import prices, premiums, and spreads of related products [10]. 3.5 Charts The report includes multiple charts showing the price trends, trading volumes, inventory changes, and cost - profit situations of nickel, stainless steel, and related raw materials over the years [11][13][15][17][19][21][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel, the contradiction between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns is in a game, and it is difficult to break the short - term narrow - range situation. The fundamental supply of refined nickel is increasing while demand is weakening, which restricts the upward flexibility. The key support lies in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of Indonesia's nickel ore supply governance policy. There is support at the bottom, and long - term volatility may increase [1]. - For stainless steel, the downward space is limited, and there is no effective upward driving force. It is recommended to focus on a conservative range - trading strategy, wait for low - level buying opportunities, and avoid chasing high prices. Demand is suppressed by tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, and supply elasticity may limit the upward space [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Fundamentals Shanghai Nickel - The domestic and overseas visible inventory of refined nickel has returned to the accumulation stage. The market generally expects the slowdown of invisible restocking. The substitution ratio of nickel - iron for nickel plates in the nickel - alloy sector has increased, and there is an expectation of increased production of pure nickel and low - cost wet - process supply in the long - term, which restricts the upward flexibility of Shanghai Nickel [1]. - The core support for the bulls is the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of Indonesia's nickel ore supply governance policy. Although the actual impact is controllable, short - term inspection results may increase market concerns and strengthen the bottom - support logic of nickel ore [1]. Stainless Steel - Demand is jointly suppressed by tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, resulting in a weak consumption peak season. However, the over - drafting effect of early export rush has been basically digested, showing marginal low - level repair [2]. - The supply - side elasticity is relatively large, which may limit the upward space of stainless steel. The production schedule in October increased by 3% month - on - month to 3.45 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The 300 - series is about 1.77 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year/ month - on - month increase of 4.2%/3.5% [2]. - The overall inventory of factories and social warehouses has declined from the high level. Although the year - on - year inventory accumulation in the middle and upstream has basically converged, the absolute inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, and downstream procurement is still cautious, lacking an effective upward driving force [2]. 2. Inventory Tracking - Refined Nickel: The social inventory of refined nickel in China increased by 191 tons to 47,696 tons. Among them, the warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 232 tons to 26,810 tons, the spot inventory increased by 243 tons to 16,816 tons (nickel plates increased by 243 tons, and nickel beans remained unchanged), and the bonded - area inventory increased by 180 tons to 4,070 tons. LME inventory increased by 324 tons to 250,854 tons [5]. - New Energy: On October 24th, the inventory days of the upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate changed by - 1, - 1, and +1 month - on - month to 4, 8, and 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory on October 24th changed by - 1 month - on - month to 12.9 days, and the ternary material inventory on October 23rd remained flat month - on - month at 7.1 days [5]. - Nickel Ore - Nickel Iron - Stainless Steel: On October 15th, the SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,062 tons, with a stable and slightly increasing month - on - month trend and a year - on - year increase of 41%. In September, the SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.532 million tons, with a month - on - year/month - on - month increase/decrease of 4%/ - 1%. On October 23rd, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the Steel Union decreased by 1.33% week - on - week to 1,027,402 tons, and the inventory of the 300 - series stainless steel decreased by 0.89% week - on - week to 649,326 tons [5]. 3. Market News - On September 12th, the Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over a 148 - hectare nickel - ore mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel due to violations of forestry license regulations, which is expected to affect the nickel - ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [7]. - On September 22nd, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees. Once the companies submit claim plan documents and place claim guarantees until 2025, the sanctions will be automatically cancelled [7]. - On September 30th, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order. The approval plan for the next year's mine RKAB is expected to be completed by November 15th this year. According to the transition clause, if the 2026 RKAB has been applied for through the online system but not approved by the end of this year, the 2026 RKAB approved by the minister or governor before the entry into force of this ministerial order can still be used as the basis for exploration or production operations until March 31st, 2026 [7]. - On October 10th, US President Trump claimed on social media that the US might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1st and implement export controls on "all key software" [8].