2026年2月1日 青绪主导边 际. 基本 月检修减产频出。镍铁预期托底 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021479 张再宇 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 本轮镍与不锈钢的核心博弈在于印尼镍政策方面,基于事件的角度: 1) 配额事件:印尼能矿部表示配额将根据行业需求进行调整,目标或削减至 2.5-2.6 亿吨镍矿配额。 点评:2024-2025 年的配额量确实超过实际冶炼刚需量,2026 年对需求的重新梳理和配额的重新审视仍 在进行中,目前仍在等待具体政策落地前的真空期,预计一季度或将明确具体政策。如果放眼到长周期, 印尼防止过剩和挺价的心态是明确的,前期低价矿吸引冶炼的红利周期结束,在冶炼端产能过剩后,政策 面或出现周期性的特向。如果 1-12 月目标配额落地,那么矿端紧缺可能倒逼冶炼瑞威产,从而将过剩预 期扭转为紧缺,并对存量的高库存形成冲击,这也是二级市场对上方仍有想象的核心锚点。不过,从印尼 下游政策的角度来看,若矿端采取激进的"一刀切"方式,易于激化与下游外资冶炼企业的矛盾,严业普 遍认为印尼难有绝对的政策,更关注动态的利益。因此,二级市场和产业双方在印尼政策预期上形成分歧, 两种资金在盘面形成 ...

1月21日，国内期市黑色金属板块多数飘绿。其中，不锈钢期货主力合约开盘报14410.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，不锈钢主力最高触及14895.00元，下方探低14185.00元，涨幅达2.16%附 近。 目前来看，不锈钢行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于不锈钢后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 广州期货表示，印尼镍矿政策预期大幅抬升镍铁成本，而不锈钢需求表现乏力，印尼镍矿配额落地情况 仍具有不确定性，短期不锈钢价格或呈现区间宽幅震荡，主力合约主要运行区间参考13600-14600元/ 吨，警惕多头情绪退潮或政策不及预期带来回调风险。 国贸期货指出，不锈钢原料价格反弹，钢厂排产增加，库存逐步去化，不锈钢短期高位震荡运行；中长 期关注多镍空不锈钢套利。 齐盛期货分析称，不锈钢成本端受镍铁及矿价上行支撑明显，尤其是印尼内贸矿价格预期大幅上涨，进 一步强化成本刚性。随着利润边际修复，1月排产或出现小幅回升，但整体增量有限。需求端仍处于季 节性淡季，下游采购意愿偏弱，对价格形成一定压制。库存方面，当前社会库存尚未出现明显累积，但 在淡季背景下后续仍有增加压力，而仓单维持低位对市场形成一 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term policy vacuum period due to the confrontation between industrial and secondary market funds. The key to breaking the deadlock lies in the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter, especially the quota policy. For trading, it is recommended to consider options, and pay attention to structural opportunities. [4][5] - For stainless steel, the expectation of increased supply and weak demand in the off - season exerts pressure, while the cost center moves up due to the increase in ferronickel cost. Attention should be paid to the variables in Indonesian nickel ore policies. [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 News Affecting the Nickel Market - **Quota Event**: On January 8, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources stated that the quota would be adjusted according to industry demand. On January 14, it was mentioned that the target might be cut to 260 million tons of nickel ore quota. The policy for 2026 is still under review, and it is expected that specific policies will be clarified in the first quarter. If the 260 - million - ton quota is implemented, it may lead to a shortage in the ore end and impact high inventories. [1] - **伴生 Mineral Event**: Indonesia wants to include associated minerals such as cobalt in the pricing and taxation system. If cobalt is priced, the direct cost of pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy may increase by about 5% - 10%. [2] - **违规 Fine Event**: Multiple companies in Indonesia are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land. The final fine may be lower than the initial estimate. If the fine is implemented, it may indirectly lead to higher ore prices. [2] - **Other Events**: In early 2026, Vale suspended its nickel mining business but later resumed normal operations after obtaining the 2026 mining quota approval. It is speculated that Indonesia may favor hydrometallurgical projects. [3] 3.2 Market Outlook 3.2.1 Nickel - Industrial players focus on the weak fundamentals of nickel, with over - supply pressure and expectations of low - cost hydrometallurgical production. They mainly adopt a strategy of selling at high prices for hedging. Secondary market funds expect policy changes in Indonesia and tend to go long at low prices in the long - term. In the short - term, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and the key lies in the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter. [4][5] 3.2.2 Stainless Steel - The expectation of increased supply and weak demand in the off - season puts pressure on stainless steel. However, the increase in ferronickel cost due to various factors in Indonesia may push up the cost of stainless steel. The cost logic may cause the stainless steel price to oscillate with a higher center, but the marginal increase in supply and weak demand still have a drag effect. [6] 3.3 Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On January 15, China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 102 tons to 60,587 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 942 tons to 285,732 tons. [7] - **新能源**: On January 16, the inventory days of upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate increased slightly month - on - month. The precursor inventory and ternary material inventory also increased month - on - month. [7] - **Nickel - Iron - Stainless Steel**: On January 15, the full - industry chain inventory of SMM nickel - iron decreased by 2% month - on - month to 131,000 metal tons. Stainless steel factory inventory decreased in December, and the social inventory of stainless steel decreased week - on - week on January 15. [7] 3.4 Market News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing certain nickel - related products. [8] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have implemented export license management for some steel products since January 1, 2026. [8] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources would revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection. [8] - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons. [10]

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market in 2025 experienced a "wide fluctuation" characterized by an "N-shaped" price trend, driven by the interplay between "Indonesian policy expectations" and "global high inventory realities" [4][10]. Price Trend Summary - In the first quarter, optimistic market sentiment was fueled by Indonesia's tightening policy signals and China's "expanding domestic demand" strategy, pushing prices from 128,000 CNY/ton to a peak of 135,000 CNY/ton by mid-March [5]. - The second quarter saw a decline in prices due to high inventory and weak demand, with prices dropping from around 130,000 CNY/ton to approximately 122,000 CNY/ton by the end of June [5]. - The third quarter was marked by a narrow price range of 120,000 to 124,000 CNY/ton, with market sentiment remaining pessimistic due to high inventory and weak demand [5]. - In the fourth quarter, prices surged to 138,000 CNY/ton, driven by expectations of a significant reduction in Indonesia's nickel mining quotas and global liquidity easing [5][10]. Supply Side Overview - The global nickel supply market in 2025 exhibited an overall surplus, with significant production growth driven primarily by Indonesia's capacity expansion [8]. - The supply dynamics evolved through three phases: initial expectations of loosened supply due to increased mining quotas, mid-year cost pressures from resource tax hikes, and a late-year shift in expectations towards potential quota reductions [8]. - Indonesia's quota management significantly influenced global supply, with a dual model of domestic production and imports from the Philippines [8]. Demand Side Overview - The global nickel consumption market in 2025 showed moderate growth, with demand expected to reach 3.53 to 3.6 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 5% [9]. - Demand dynamics shifted, with traditional stainless steel applications experiencing weak growth, while high-end alloys and special steels became the main drivers of demand growth [9]. - High-purity nickel plate demand remained resilient, particularly in high-nickel battery applications, despite challenges from competing technologies [9]. Market Dynamics Summary - The nickel market's volatility in 2025 highlighted the critical role of policy expectations and financial attributes, with prices reflecting not only current supply-demand conditions but also future narratives [7][10]. - The end-of-year price surge was primarily driven by fears of supply contraction, supported by macro liquidity conditions [6][10].

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have strengthened due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, industry trends, and geopolitical disturbances, reflecting a complex interplay of liquidity expectations, supply constraints, and geopolitical uncertainties [2] Supply Side - Indonesia's policy changes are the biggest variable affecting the supply landscape, with rumors suggesting a potential 34% reduction in nickel ore production quotas by 2026, which could significantly alter the global nickel supply-demand balance [2] - Indonesia's proposed revision of mining taxes to classify by-product cobalt as a separate taxable item may increase nickel smelting production costs, providing price support from the cost side [2] - Although LME nickel inventories are high, the availability of specific brands and grades for delivery is relatively tight, leading to higher spot premiums and indicating that immediate supply is not as loose as the absolute inventory figures suggest [2] Demand Side - Nickel demand is driven by two core areas: stainless steel, which accounts for over 60% of global nickel consumption, and the rapidly growing demand from the new energy battery sector, particularly high-nickel ternary batteries [3] - The aerospace and military sectors also contribute to demand through the use of nickel-based superalloys, adding a high-value growth segment to the market [3] - The nickel industry chain is characterized by high upstream concentration, technology-driven midstream, and diversified downstream demand, with Indonesia controlling about 70% of global supply [3] Market Outlook - Short-term nickel price trends will be primarily influenced by expectations surrounding Indonesia's production reduction policies, alongside geopolitical factors and resilient demand, suggesting prices may remain strong but volatile [4] - High global visible inventories will impose substantial constraints on the upward price potential, with future market focus on the implementation and effectiveness of Indonesia's policies and the path for inventory digestion [4]

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a downturn, with prices hitting new lows due to a combination of oversupply and policy changes from Indonesia, the largest nickel supplier [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Copper and aluminum prices are reaching new highs, while nickel prices are declining, indicating a divergence in the non-ferrous metals market [1]. - Nickel production in China is projected to reach approximately 360,000 tons from January to November 2025, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 19.34% [2]. - Global nickel inventories have surpassed 310,000 tons by early December 2025, with an increase of over 100,000 tons throughout the year, indicating a high inventory level [2]. Group 2: Cost and Pricing Pressure - Nickel prices have fallen below the cost of purchasing raw materials and some integrated processes, leading to a lack of strong cost support for current price levels [2]. - The lowest production costs in the industry continue to decline, anchoring market prices to these lower levels amid oversupply [2]. Group 3: Policy Variables - Indonesia's potential policy changes could significantly impact future nickel supply, with mining quotas expected to decrease from 379 million tons in 2025 to approximately 250 million tons in 2026 [3]. - Proposed adjustments to pricing and tax regulations in Indonesia may increase mining costs, as cobalt and other by-products will be treated as independent commodities subject to royalties [3]. - The market is highly sensitive to any potential supply reductions from Indonesia, which could lead to a rapid price rebound based on rising cost expectations [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for further declines in nickel prices appears limited, with a preliminary bottom possibly established [4]. - Future market direction will heavily depend on the final outcomes of Indonesia's mining quota approvals and the implementation of related tax policies [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel's current fundamentals show no marginal improvement, with overall supply-demand expected to remain loose in January and high visible inventories putting pressure on prices [3]. - Indonesia's proposed revision of the nickel ore domestic trade pricing method and reduction of the 2026 nickel ore quota have led to significant adjustments in market expectations of nickel costs and balance, providing some support for nickel prices [3]. - The market should be wary of increased price volatility after the previous rapid rally, and short - term investors can consider buying on dips while closely monitoring the actual implementation of relevant Indonesian policies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Dynamics and Reasons - On January 8, 2026, the Shanghai nickel contract plunged after a previous rapid rally, with the intraday price dropping to 13,380 tons. The LME nickel also declined significantly, with an intraday drop of over 4.5% [2]. - The sharp decline in nickel prices was mainly driven by the overall downturn in the non - ferrous sector, and the weak real - world fundamentals accelerated the decline. As of January 7, LME nickel inventories increased by over 20,000 tons to 275,600 tons, reaching a seven - year high [2]. - The uncertainty of Indonesia's policy on revising the domestic trade pricing method and the RKAB quota for nickel ore in 2026 has supported nickel prices. As of January 8, the Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister had not disclosed the specific RKAB amount and said it was still being calculated [2]. Fundamental Situation - On the supply side, China's electrolytic nickel production increased in December, and Indonesia's MHP, nickel ice, and nickel matte production remained high in December, resulting in continued supply pressure [2]. - On the demand side, it has entered the traditional off - season. Stainless steel production increased due to margin repair, but the electroplating and alloy sectors are expected to decline. Overall, the fundamentals remain in surplus, with LME nickel inventories increasing by 20,088 tons to 275,600 tons and Shanghai nickel inventories decreasing by 612 tons to 38,800 tons. Global visible inventories are still at a high level [2]. Summary and Strategy - Nickel's current fundamentals have not improved, and the overall supply - demand in January is expected to be loose. High visible inventories will suppress prices, while Indonesian policies will support prices. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of relevant policies [3]. - The market's expectation of Indonesian policies is still strong. After the previous rapid rally, the market should be wary of increased volatility. Short - term investors can consider buying on dips and focus on the actual implementation of Indonesian policies [3].

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is currently facing a supply expansion cycle, with production growth significantly outpacing demand, leading to concerns about supply contraction and rising costs, particularly influenced by policy changes in Indonesia [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nickel prices have recently declined, reaching a new low since 2021 in late October, while other metals like copper and aluminum have seen price increases, indicating a divergence in the market [1]. - The overall nickel market is experiencing a significant increase in production, with domestic output expected to reach approximately 360,000 tons from January to November 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.34% [2]. - Global visible nickel inventories have surpassed 310,000 tons, with an increase of over 100,000 tons throughout the year, indicating high inventory levels [2]. Group 2: Cost and Pricing Pressure - Nickel prices have fallen below the cost of purchasing raw materials and some integrated processes, leading to a lack of strong cost support at current price levels [2]. - The lowest production costs in the industry continue to decline, anchoring market prices to these lower levels amid an oversupply situation [2]. Group 3: Policy Variables - Indonesia, the largest global supplier of nickel, has indicated potential significant changes in mining quotas and taxation that could impact future supply [3]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) has reported a proposed reduction in the mining output target for 2026 to approximately 250 million tons, down from 379 million tons in 2025 [3]. - Proposed adjustments to pricing and tax rules in Indonesia could increase mining costs, as cobalt and other by-products may be treated as independent commodities subject to royalties [3]. - The market is highly sensitive to any potential supply contraction from Indonesia, which could lead to a rapid price rebound based on rising cost expectations [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for further declines in nickel prices appears limited, with a preliminary establishment of a phase bottom, heavily reliant on the final outcomes of Indonesia's mining quota approvals and tax policy implementations [4].

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is currently facing a supply expansion cycle, with production growth significantly outpacing demand, leading to concerns about supply contraction and rising costs. Nickel prices have reached a new low since 2021, but the potential for further declines is limited, indicating a possible formation of a temporary bottom [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The recent divergence in the non-ferrous metals market shows copper and aluminum prices reaching new highs, while nickel continues to weaken, primarily due to its cyclical challenges and policy disruptions from key producing regions [1]. - Nickel production in China is projected to reach approximately 360,000 tons from January to November 2025, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 19.34%. This is coupled with relatively slow growth in downstream demand, resulting in a significant accumulation of global nickel inventory, which has exceeded 310,000 tons by early December, marking an increase of over 100,000 tons for the year [2]. Group 2: Cost Dynamics - Nickel prices have fallen below the cost line for purchasing raw materials and certain integrated processes. However, the industry's minimum production costs continue to decline, leading the market to anchor around these lower costs, which diminishes strong cost support at current price levels [2]. Group 3: Policy Variables - Indonesia, the world's largest nickel supplier, has signaled potential changes that could significantly impact future supply. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) has indicated that the mining quota for 2026 may be drastically reduced to approximately 250 million tons, down from 379 million tons in 2025 [3]. - Additionally, the Indonesian government plans to revise the pricing and tax rules for nickel, which will increase mining costs by treating cobalt and other associated minerals as independent commodities subject to royalties. This could lead to a supply gap if the mining quotas are implemented as planned, thereby raising costs across the industry [3]. - The market is highly sensitive to any potential supply contraction, especially after significant price adjustments and valuation compressions, leading to a rapid price rebound based on expectations of rising costs [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of nickel prices will heavily depend on the final outcomes of Indonesia's mining quota approvals and the specific implementation of related tax policies [4].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to set the 2026 RKAB quota at 250 million tons, a significant decrease of 34% from the 379 million tons in 2025, aiming to prevent further declines in nickel prices [1] Group 1: RKAB Quota and Market Dynamics - The 2026 RKAB quota is expected to create a supply gap of 57 million tons, as the estimated demand for nickel ore is at least 327 million wet tons [1] - Historical data shows that the Indonesian government has a tendency to approve higher RKAB quotas than initially planned, leading to a cautious outlook on the actual implementation of the quota reduction [2] - The anticipated RKAB quota for 2026 is expected to fall between 280 million to 320 million tons, influenced by short-term supply shortage expectations [2] Group 2: Nickel Pricing and Taxation Policies - A revised nickel reference price (HPM) calculation formula is set to be released in early 2026, which will classify cobalt as an independent commodity subject to royalties [3] - The introduction of a royalty on cobalt could potentially increase government revenue by approximately $600 million annually, even with a low cobalt content in nickel ore [3] - The cost increase for nickel production due to cobalt royalties is estimated to be between $65 to $371.43 per ton, depending on the royalty rate applied [3][4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Projections - Recent policy expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions and cobalt taxation have led to a rapid rebound in nickel futures prices, with a notable V-shaped recovery observed [5] - Predictions indicate that Indonesia's MHP capacity will reach 850,000 metal tons in 2026, with a production increase of over 45%, potentially leading to further oversupply in the global nickel market [6] - The short-term price movements of nickel are expected to be driven by market sentiment, with limited upward potential unless more policies are implemented [6]