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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals [3]. - The potential end of the US government shutdown and the weakening labor market indicators have increased the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, weakening the US dollar index and boosting copper prices. Meanwhile, the average price in the domestic spot market has risen, and the premium has slowed [12]. - For aluminum, funds are the core factor affecting prices. There is a contradiction between funds and the industry, and the upward trend of Shanghai aluminum depends on continuous fund inflows. For alumina, it is still in an oversupply situation [32]. - In November, due to intense competition for zinc ore in the smelting sector and a decrease in TC, the willingness to reduce or halt production has increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction, and zinc prices are expected to have upward momentum [56]. - For the nickel industry chain, weak demand in the off - season suppresses the upward space. The price of nickel ore may remain strong in the short term, while nickel iron prices have been decreasing, and stainless steel faces pressure [72]. - For tin, supply is weaker than demand due to limited resumption of production in Wa State and a sharp decline in concentrate imports. Shanghai tin will maintain high - level volatility, but there is a risk of price decline [87]. - For lithium carbonate, it is currently in a state of being prone to rise but difficult to fall, maintaining a strong - side oscillation, but there is a risk of correction [103]. - For the silicon industry chain, the overall supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, and they are expected to show wide - range oscillations [114]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price trends: Presented data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures prices, as well as price - to - ratio relationships [4][10]. - Price differences: Showed SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences [5][7]. - Correlation: Illustrated the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates and the US dollar index [8][9]. - Fund positions: Displayed the positions of gold and silver long - term funds [10]. - Inventory: Showed SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [11]. Copper - Futures data: Provided data on copper futures prices, including Shanghai and London copper, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [13]. - Spot data: Presented copper spot prices and premium data from different regions, as well as import profit and loss and processing fee data [17][23]. - Scrap price difference: Gave the difference between refined and scrap copper prices [27]. - Warehouse receipts: Showed the quantity and change of copper warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and international markets [28][30]. Aluminum and Alumina - Price data: Provided price data for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures, including the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [34]. - Price difference: Showed the price differences between different contracts of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [36][38]. - Spot data: Presented aluminum spot prices, basis, and price differences in different regions, as well as alumina basis data [42][44]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of aluminum and alumina futures, including Shanghai and London inventory changes [50]. Zinc - Price data: Provided zinc futures price data, including Shanghai and LME zinc, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [57]. - Spot data: Presented zinc spot prices and premium data, as well as LME zinc premium data [65]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of zinc futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [69]. Nickel Industry Chain - Price data: Provided price data for nickel and stainless steel futures, including the latest price, change, and change rate, as well as trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data [73]. - Downstream profit: Showed the profit data of downstream products in the nickel industry chain, such as the profit rate of producing nickel sulfate and stainless steel [82][84]. Tin - Futures data: Provided tin futures price data, including Shanghai and LME tin, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [88]. - Spot data: Presented tin spot prices and premium data, as well as the price data of tin - related products [93]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of tin futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [98]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures price: Provided the price data of lithium carbonate futures, including the latest price, daily change, and weekly change, as well as the price difference between different contracts [104][106]. - Spot data: Presented lithium spot prices, including the prices of different types of lithium products and their price differences [108]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of lithium carbonate, including exchange inventory, social inventory, and inventory in different sectors [112]. Silicon Industry Chain - Industrial silicon: Presented industrial silicon spot prices, basis, and price differences, as well as futures price data and price differences between different contracts [115][116]. - Polysilicon and related products: Showed the price data of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products in the silicon industry chain [123][125]. - Production and inventory: Displayed the production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the production capacity and output data of silicon wafers [130][134].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean and meal market is mixed with both long and short factors. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - scale upward oscillation due to a single supply source. The direction of Sino - US trade relations and new variables on the supply side need to be monitored [3]. - The oil market is supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy draft, low inventory in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. However, the upside space is restricted by multiple factors, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures may continue to decline in the future, considering the increasing import supply, high import profit, and the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season [12]. - The cotton market is under short - term bearish pressure due to the weak downstream consumption, low operating rate, and the failure of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement to be finalized [15]. - The egg market may experience short - term fluctuations, but in the medium - term, opportunities for short - selling after a rebound should be focused on due to the large supply scale [17]. - For the pig market, medium and long - term contracts are recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to inter - month reverse spread opportunities for far - month contracts [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meals - **Important Information**: Due to Trump's call for China to buy soybeans, US soybeans rose while domestic soybean meal declined. The domestic soybean meal spot basis was stable on Monday. The soybean crushing volume is expected to increase this week, with a significant increase in soybean inventory and a slight decrease in soybean meal inventory last week. The US soybean is undervalued and in a state of oversupply, and the domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly report on Tuesday evening [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Against the background of global protein raw material supply surplus, the upward momentum of soybean import cost is insufficient. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, and it is expected that the spot end may start to destock in September. It is recommended to go long at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 09 contracts [5]. Oils - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared with the same period last month. Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026, but it may be difficult to start in January. Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 7.09% month - on - month, and the inventory increased by 4.02% [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The oil market is supported by multiple factors, but the upside space is restricted. The palm oil market may maintain stable inventory in the 7 - 9 months and has a rising expectation in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy, but it should be viewed as fluctuating [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi and Yunnan remained unchanged, and the mainstream quotes of processing sugar factories varied. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped increased slightly. In July, Brazil's sugar exports to China decreased [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the continuous increase in import supply in the second half of the year, the sales space of domestic sugar is squeezed. The futures price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton decreased slightly. The operating rates of spinning and weaving factories declined, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The Sino - US economic and trade agreement has not been finalized, and the downstream consumption is weak. The cotton market is short - term bearish [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable, with a few areas rising slightly. The supply was generally sufficient, and the downstream digestion speed was average [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of eggs is large, and the egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected. The short - term market may fluctuate, and medium - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [17]. Pigs - **Important Information**: The domestic pig prices showed a mixed trend, with some areas rising, some falling, and some remaining stable. The market supply and demand are in a game, and the pig prices may be mainly stable [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price is weak while the futures price is strong. Medium and long - term contracts are recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to inter - month reverse spread opportunities for far - month contracts [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Lithium carbonate, PTA, Ethylene glycol, PP, PVC [1][2] - **Bearish**: Alumina, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Coke, Corn (C01), PVC, Caustic soda, LPG [1][2] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index futures, Bond futures, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Manganese silicon, Silicon iron, Glass, Soda ash, Palm oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn (C09), Soybean meal (MO9), Pulp, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, Natural rubber, BR rubber, Urea, PE [1][2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market requires new themes and bullish sentiment to drive it after continuous strong rallies. The short - term upward speed of stock index futures may slow down. Attention should be paid to the July Politburo meeting communique, the third round of China - US trade consultations, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions. [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest - rate risks suppresses the upside space. [1] - Although the outlook for tariff progress is positive, market uncertainties remain, and with the Fed's expected interest rate cut in September, gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. [1] 3. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock index futures**: After continuous rallies, the short - term upward speed may slow down. Adjustment and long - position building are the main strategies. Pay attention to the July Politburo meeting communique and the third round of China - US trade consultations. [1] - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest - rate risks suppresses the upside space. [1] Precious metals - **Gold**: Despite positive tariff progress expectations, market uncertainties and the Fed's possible September interest - rate cut keep the price oscillating in the short term. [1] - **Silver**: It may return to the fundamental logic and oscillate. [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Short - term market sentiment is optimistic, but high prices suppress downstream demand, so the price may oscillate. [1] - **Aluminum**: Rising electrolytic aluminum prices suppress downstream demand, and the price may oscillate weakly. [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term prices are macro - dominated and widely oscillating. There is a long - term surplus pressure on primary nickel. It is advisable to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices. [1] - **Stainless steel**: Futures are macro - dominated in the short term. Wait and see, look for short - selling opportunities at high prices and cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities. [1] - **Tin**: It returns to fundamental trading in the short term, with limited driving forces due to weak supply and demand. [1] Industrial metals - **Steel products (e.g., rebar, hot - rolled coil)**: Market sentiment cools, and capital behavior may cause large fluctuations. [1] - **Iron ore**: Market sentiment recedes, and prices fluctuate sharply. [1] - **Manganese silicon, silicon iron**: Market sentiment recedes, and prices fluctuate sharply. [1] Chemicals - **PTA**: Supply contracts, but crude oil prices are strong. Polyester downstream load remains high, and there is a slight inventory reduction at ports. [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Coal prices rise slightly, commodity sentiment is strong, overseas device maintenance is extended, and supply contracts. [1] - **Benzene ethylene**: Pure benzene prices fall slightly, device load rises, and the basis weakens significantly. [1] - **Urea**: Supply contraction is expected, and domestic demand enters the off - season. [1] - **PE**: Macro sentiment fades, returning to fundamentals. There are many maintenance activities, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, with prices oscillating weakly. [1] - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, orders are for rigid needs, and the "anti - involution" sentiment drives the price to oscillate strongly. [1] - **PVC**: Macro sentiment fades, returning to fundamentals. Maintenance decreases, downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and supply pressure rises. [2] - **Caustic soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, spot prices are at a low level, and the premium of delivery substitutes increases. [2] - **LPG**: Crude oil support is insufficient, international fundamentals are loose, port propane inventory is high, and it is in the seasonal off - season for combustion demand. [2] Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: The good rate of US soybeans is lowered, policies are negative for feed raw materials, and funds tend to be long on oil and short on meal. It is short - term strong, and the previous high pressure should be observed. [1] - **Cotton**: The near - month contract is driven by short - squeeze logic, and the upside of the 01 contract is limited. Pay attention to the time window from late July to early August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas. [1] - **Sugar**: It is running strongly, driven by the rebound of raw sugar and peak - season demand, but the upside is limited. Pay attention to the 5600 - 6000 range. [1] - **Corn**: The old - crop supply - demand is tightening, supporting the C09 contract, but the short - term market has sufficient grain circulation. The new - crop planting cost is lower, and the C01 contract is over - valued. It is advisable to short C01 at high prices. [1] - **Soybean meal**: The near - month contract is in the inventory - building cycle, and the basis is under pressure. The MO9 contract is expected to oscillate, and the MO1 contract can be bought on dips based on the expected increase in import costs. [1] - **Paper pulp**: It has rebounded significantly due to the strong commodity sentiment. The basis of broad - leaf pulp has weakened to - 1400 yuan/ton, and further chasing of long positions is not recommended. [1] - **Log futures**: Affected by the macro environment, it is likely to decline on Monday after many commodities fell on Friday night. [1]